Sunday, February 10, 2019

Trump, The Wall, Pemex, Mexico And All That Jazz -- February 10, 2019

Idle rambling on a Sunday afternoon while watching a golf tournament that won't make it to the finish line before sunset tonight. The fourth round will have to be extended to Monday morning. Later: Phil won his fifth ATT pro-am; won this tournament by an easy 3 strokes; he was two or three strokes behind the leader when the fourth round began. Good for him.

We all know that President Trump made "the wall" a huge piece of his presidential campaign, but for a year or so after his election I don't recall hearing or reading much about the issue. In fact, it seems I forgot all about that campaign pledge.

It is possible that after losing the US House, President Trump realized he needed to get back to his base, and the most visible (?) plank in his campaign that he had not yet addressed was the wall. Maybe that's why he made the wall an issue. But it seems that from that point on things seemed to go a bit south (no pun intended): his approval ratings tanked; the stock market fell; the partial government shutdown transpired.

It seems like a lot of political capital was wasted.

Again, smarter people than I will suggest that the reason Trump began campaigning for the wall was most likely due to the GOP loss of the US House.

Presidents are change agents. Their horizon is thirty years. Yes, they have short term problems to address, but at the end of the day, they are looking thirty years out.

There is no question that there are tens of thousands of migrants on the move toward our southern border. Everyone knows that. It's my understanding that most of them are coming from Guatemala and other countries south of Mexico. The caravans are not originating in Mexico. That is not to say the majority of illegal crossings are not Mexican in origin but right now it appears that the failed nations south of the (Mexican) border are driving the new caravans, some of which are rumored to be quite huge.

Failed nations.

What if Mexico were to implode? It now looks like Mexico could very easily follow the road to Venezuela.

Mexico "failing" is a national security issue for the United States. Under the Obama administration, the international briefings would have included the chance of Mexico "failing." At the time, the probability of Mexico going the way of Venezuela was probably rated less than 5% by the US intelligence community, and knowing how well the president knew foreign affairs, he probably felt the likelihood of Mexico imploding under his watch was even less than that, more likely close to 0%.

All US presidents since the 1980s have well understood that Mexico's very survival is tied to the very survival of its oil program. If Pemex fails, Mexico fails.

Did anyone ten years ago think that Pemex could fail? Did anyone ten years ago think Venezuela could fail? US refineries along the gulf coast are optimized for heavy oil. The oil companies need a secure source for heavy oil. Enter stage right: the Keystone XL. The US oil companies knew that Mexico and South America were weak links in the heavy oil supply chain. 

Venezuela has failed.

Now it looks like Pemex is about to fail.

Link here.

President Obama probably felt that the likelihood of Mexico imploding under his watch was 0%. President Trump knows the likelihood, as they say in physics and math, is non-trivial. Non-trivial means a greater than 0% chance that Pemex will fail, and will take Mexico down with it.

My hunch is that Trump figured this out when the leftist Lopez Obrador was elected president of Mexico. And that's about the time President Trump started talking about the wall again.

Potpourri -- February 10, 2019

Wealth concentration. Link here. Also archived.

Riparian, a "Bakken word." From the weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal this weekend:


Speaking of "new" words: see "gaslighting" below.

Bird-watching: record number of birds on the patio yesterday eating the bread and bird seed Sophia and I put out for them:
  • two male blue jays (seldom see both of them show up at the same time)
  • three dark-eyed juncos
  • one male, one female, and one juvenile cardinal (at various times, not altogether at same time)
  • a raven
  • two mourning doves
  • one squirrel shows up
  • they all seem to take turns
  • the blue jays are the most skittish
  • the squirrel's tail is relaxed except when the blue jay(s) show(s) up and then the squirrel's tail is laying/lying stiffly up its back
  • the two slices of bread always disappear fairly quickly
  • the seed seems to last all day, allowing birds to come back later in the day for a snack
Global warming: perhaps the best "analyst" regarding the subject, Bjorn Lomborg, President at Copenhagen Consensus Center, notes, January 30, 2019, that fewer and fewer people die from climate-related natural disasters. This is all the more interesting when one realizes that more and more people choose to live along the coasts of the Americas and Asia.


Fake weather? This can't be happening with AGW:


Reality sucks. From Mark Perry this past week. Even Howard Schultz wasn't this dumb. He only went as far as "bathrooms for all."
Nine years after introducing pay-what-you-can restaurants to several U.S. cities, Panera Bread is admitting defeat and closing down its last remaining non-profit Panera Cares location.
At its peak, Panera Cares operated five locations, including ones in Dearborn, Michigan; Portland, Oregon; Boston, and Chicago.
Each restaurant was designed to sustain itself, but the restaurants weren’t financially viable. The Portland-based Panera Cares was reportedly only recouping between 60 and 70 percent of its total costs.
The losses were attributed students who “mobbed” the restaurant and ate without paying, as well as homeless patrons who visited the restaurant for every meal of the week. The location eventually limited the homeless to “a few meals a week.”
Britain's climate change scandal, all gummed up, or should we say, "gummer and gummer"? Reported earlier on the blog. Bottom line:
The chairman of the Climate Change Committee, Lord Deben (John Selwyn Gummer), admits to having received payments of more than £600,000, mainly from firms involved in renewable energy and electric cars. [See wealth concentration link above. The British lords have done very, very well. Now we know why.]
Occasional-Cortez doubles down on "free money" for people "unwilling to work." From ZeroHedge.

Meta-data, Saikat Chakrabarti is Occasional-Cortex' advisor on global warming, economic wealth. Some in the media are suggesting that Occasional-Cortex is "gaslighting" us.



Amazon re-considers. Headlines suggest Jeff Bezos is reconsidering his decision to move half has second new Amazon headquarters to Long Island City, Long Island, New York. Considering all his current problems, I doubt he wants to add Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio to the list of those who "hate" him and/or Amazon. But on such matters I am often wrong.

Gas lights in Great Britain: quick! What raw product was the preferred product for "manufactured gas" used for lighting London in the 19th, and probably early 20th centuries?

Global warming, again. A strong advocate of controlling "human-made CO2 emissions", Amy Klobuchar announces her run for presidency during a frigid snowstorm.


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The Book Page

109 East Palace: Robert Oppenheimer and the Secret City of Los Alamos, Jennet Conant, c. 2005.

Years later, Robert Oppenheimer lost his security clearance. Edward Teller testified against him.

From page 107:
I.I. Rabi also advised Oppenheimer that, saddled with all the duties of being scientific director, he could not also be responsible for heading the Theoretical Division. Rabi proposed Hans Bethe for the job, and Oppie agreed. When Teller learned that Oppenheimer had made Bethe head of the T Division, and Serber his group leader, he was furious, Oppenheimer had known full well that Teller would feel snubbed, but his primary responsibility was to keep everyone on track and the work progressing as quickly as possible. Teller persisted in talking about his own ideas and introducing obstacles in an effort to control the project and move it in a different direction.
It is  interesting to read that bit of foreshadowing knowing what would play out about ten years later.

From wiki: Wernher von Braun summed up his opinion about the matter with a quip to a Congressional committee: "In England, Oppenheimer would have been knighted."

Some Incredible Bruin Fort Berthold Wells Have Been Updated -- February 10, 2019

This page will not be updated.

For newbies and mineral owners to see how the Bruin Fort Berthold wells have been and will be doing, the Bruin Fort Berthold wells in section 26-151-94 have been updated. These are incredibly good wells as all Bruin FB wells seem to be.

MRO Is Just Incredible -- February 10, 2019 -- A Single Well Produced At A Rate Of 99,000 Bbls/Month; Now 128K In 1.5 Months

This page will not be updated. All these wells (and more) are tracked at this post.

Here's another incredible MRO well:
  • 34100, 4,857, MRO, Nora Jones 12-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 128K 12/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201831772877666832583912174374041983
BAKKEN11-201882039220526114432605627524324
BAKKEN10-2018929706301351612937145035162
BAKKEN9-2018275201612137201324

Not necessary to gild the lily, but in 10/18, with 30,000 bbls over 9 days extrapolates to 99,020 bbls/month. 

And, note, that the cumulative of 128K was accomplished in less than two months.

Other wells on that pad:
  • 34101, 4,966, MRO, Briek 13-14H, Reunion Bay, t11/18; cum 145K 12/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201831679746796724572804613880336821
BAKKEN11-2018247582475120325639083192284546
BAKKEN10-20180013540000
BAKKEN9-2018213540555151601429

  • 34103, 7,471, MRO, Dye USA 14-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 163K 12/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201816271852729622478340661589516232
BAKKEN11-2018204249443110321275577456352180
BAKKEN10-2018259290592080762411206160114397
BAKKEN9-2018318604003660354
  • 34104, 5,747, MRO, Hammerberg USA 14-14H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 159K 12/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201825247322509019147287911396913063
BAKKEN11-2018306646566579439298569286880090
BAKKEN10-20182067206667484498981170076686
BAKKEN9-20182273012255830566

Enerplus Will Report Some Huge "Cat" Wells -- February 10, 2019

The other day I posted the early production numbers for this well:
  • 33775, SI/NC-->conf, Enerplus, Serval 149-93-30A-31H, Mandaree, 8 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass (not a particularly big frack)
It turns out that the current production numbers are even better than originally reported. Here are most recent numbers:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20184655535861
11-20182468615649
10-20182450816608
9-20184208213126
8-2018760436

The Enerplus "cat" wells are tracked here.

Progress At Williston's New Airport, XWA, Continues Despite Polar Vortex -- February 10, 2019; Answers To That "Pop" Quiz On Ethane

Link here at The Williston Herald.

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Answers To That Ethane "Pop" Quiz

I find this fascinating. Posting the answers to the quiz posted yesterday. 

Link here for answers.


Ethane is a "feedstock" for just about "everything."

1. How many countries export ethane internationally? [That's redundant, obviously, but that's how the EIA phrased it.]  Two.

2. Name the top five countries that export ethane internationally. [Ditto,] Trick question. There are only two: the US and Norway.

3. Name the country that is #1 in ethane exports. The US.

4. Name the country that is #2 in ethane exports. Norway.

5. The US exports how much ethane?

a. 50,000 bpd
b. 250,000 bpd
c. 500,000 bpd
d. 1 million bopd
6. The country that exports the most ethane, exports how much ethane?
a. 50,000 bpd
b. 250,000 bpd
c. 500,000 bpd
d. 1 million bopd
7. The #2 country in ethane exports, exports how much ethane?
a. 50,000 bpd
b. 250,000 bpd
c. 500,000 bpd
d. 1 million bopd
8. The #3 country in ethane exports, exports how much ethane? Trick question. Only two countries export ethane.
a. 50,000 bpd
b. 250,000 bpd
c. 500,000 bpd
d. 1 million bopd
9. In what year did the #1 country overtake the #2 country (questions 3 and 4 above). 2015.

10. The United States exports ethane to how many countries? Ten.

11. In 2014, the US exported ethane to only one country. Name that country that was the only country to import ethane from the US. Canada.

12. Extra credit: American Ethane, when given federal approval, will supply ethane to a number of petrochemical crackers in China, from a new terminal on the Neches River in Beaumont, TX. "Who" funds American Ethane? Russia. Don't you just love all that talk about sanctions on Russia!

See also this post.

Production Numbers From Selected Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 10, 2019

Production numbers from selected wells coming off the confidential list this week.

Full list of confidential wells coming off the confidential list this week is posted here.

Comments:
  • these are some big wells; much, much bigger than the wells from even two years ago
  • as big as they are, they are not record setting; they are pretty much the norm in Tier 1
  • it is interesting that many re-fracked wells are showing similar results; and many re-fracked wells, it seems, are being re-fracked with less sand than currently newly fracked wells

34979, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-12-1H-3, Wolf Bay:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2018114992578
11-201821551098

33852, conf, Oasis, Berry 5493 41-7 4BX, Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20181267011583
11-20181426515264
10-20182465425694
9-20183543739388
8-201814196870

33851, conf, Oasis, Berry 5493 41-7 5TX, Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20181277111325
11-20181317812706
10-20181458513012
9-20182736623783
8-201811129870

34812, conf, NP Resources, Cerkoney 141-100-2-11-1H, Tree Top:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2018383012391
11-2018508212876
10-2018625714190
9-2018958518928
8-201825303563

34767, conf, CLR, Teresa D 1-10H, Juno:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20181388019442
11-20181779318373
10-2018182896060
9-2018181640
8-201865460

33920, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 6T,  Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182302417371
11-20181601016161
10-20182341724077
9-20182215116681
8-201880781082

34512, conf, Nine Point Energy, Fritz 150-101-32-29-8H, Pronghorn:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2018143979562
11-201866787143
10-2018212404882
9-20182520935823
8-201883730

33919, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 5B, Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20183085723790
11-20182624228228
10-20182032922763
9-20182377819448
8-2018179851357

33292, conf, Liberty Resources, Waldon W 157-97-24-25-2TFH, Ray:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2018955917445
11-2018987415480
10-20181199418893
9-20181054718366
8-201877591602

30137, conf, CLR, Pletan 6-18H1, Jim Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182885535822
11-20182490923365
10-20181473413333
8-20188910

33922, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 3B, Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182582823084
11-20182423729340
10-20183078932322
9-20183241725341
8-201817881971

33918, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 4T, Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182585719355
11-20182109120963
10-20182873328633
9-20182986424130
8-201813535727

33916, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 41-12 2T, Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182434918551
11-20182235723867
10-20182656028226
9-20182474422392
8-2018151192707


30136, conf, CLR, Pletan 5-18H2, Jim Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20181911520272
11-20181913817439
10-201887258168
8-20188450

33293, conf, Liberty Resources, Waldon W 157-97-24-25-3MBH, Ray, a nice well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20181022819435
11-20181190518452
10-20181411220922
9-20181254523477
8-201896621663

33984, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 43-12 10B, Alkali Creek, a very nice well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2018123508769
11-201810765994
10-20182632726001
9-20183081031892
8-2018269923918

Record Number Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week? -- February 10, 2019

Six months ago it was mid-August.

Link here.

Monday, February 18, 2019: 76 wells for the month; 179 wells for the quarter
34979, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-12-1H-3, Wolf Bay, producing,
34917, conf, XTO, Christiana 21X-6EXH, West Capa, no production data,
33852, conf, Oasis, Berry 5493 41-7 4BX, Alkali Creek, producing,
33851, conf, Oasis, Berry 5493 41-7 5TX, Alkali Creek, producing,
28954, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-7, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Sunday, February 17, 2019: 71 wells for the month; 174 wells for the quarter
34919, conf, XTO, Christiana 21X-6AXB, West Capa, no production data,  
34918, conf, XTO, Christiana 21X-6A, West Capa, no production data,
34812, conf, NP Resources, Cerkoney 141-100-2-11-1H, Tree Top, producing,
34767, conf, CLR, Teresa D 1-10H, Juno, producing,
33920, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 6T, Alkali Creek, producing,
33104, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 13-19H2, Elm Tree, producing,
28953, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-6, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Saturday, February 16, 2019: 64 wells for the month; 167 wells for the quarter
34920, conf, XTO, Christiana 21X-6F, West Capa, no production data,
34512, conf, Nine Point Energy, Fritz 150-101-32-29-8H, Pronghorn, producing,
33919, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 5B, Alkali Creek, producing,
33292, conf, Liberty Resources, Waldon W 157-97-24-25-2TFH, Ray, producing,
32065, conf, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork, no production data,
30137, conf, CLR, Pletan 6-18H1, Jim Creek, producing,
28952, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-5, Alkali Creek, no production data,  
28951, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-4, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Friday, February 15, 2019: 56 wells for the month; 159 wells for the quarter
33922, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 3B, Alkali Creek, producing,
33918, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 4T, Alkali Creek, producing,
33916, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 41-12 2T, Alkali Creek, producing,
30136, conf, CLR, Pletan 5-18H2, Jim Creek, producing,

Thursday, February, 14, 2019: 52 wells for the month; 155 wells for the quarter
32067, conf, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34F, North Fork, no production data,
35174, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 4-6H South, Sergis, producing,
34669, conf, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-5, Wheelock, no production data,

Wednesday, February 13, 2019: 49 wells for the month; 152 wells for the quarter
34670, conf, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-4, Wheelock, no production data,
33102, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 9-19H2, Elm Tree, producing,
32068, conf, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34H, North Fork, no production data,

Tuesday, February 12, 2019: 46 wells for the month; 149 wells for the quarter
34671, conf, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-2, Wheelock, no production data,
33103, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 11-19H1, Elm Tree, producing,
29403, conf, Oasis, Seattle Federal 5200 42-35 7B, Camp, no production data,

Monday, February 11, 2019: 43 wells for the month; 146 wells for the quarter
34672, conf, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-2, Wheelock, no production data,
32070, conf, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, no production data,

Sunday, February 10, 2019: 41 wells for the month; 144 wells for the quarter
33293, conf, Liberty Resources, Waldon W 157-97-24-25-3MBH, Ray, a nice well;
32071, conf, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork, no production data,
29404, conf, Oasis, Seattle Federal 5200 42-35 8B, Camp, no production data,

Saturday, February 9, 2019: 39 wells for the month; 141 wells for the quarter
33984, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 43-12 10B, Alkali Creek, a very nice well;
29402, conf, Oasis, Seattle Federal 5200 42-35 6B, Camp, no production data,

The Daily Note

The New Congress
First 100 Days
Day 47 -- present: Black History Month.
Day 39 -- Day 46: the Green New Deal, mainstream Dems can't step away fast enough; AOC says it was a GOP "dirty trick"
Day 23 - 38: open border negotiations, on-going
Day 1 -- Day 22: Pelosi owns the US House; 35 days of partial government shutdown


Smollet:


Trump:


February 17, 2019, T+46: worse start for any Black History Month I can recall -- starting with blackface racism by governor, attorney general in Virginia; and Virginia's African-American lieutenant governor named in sexual assault. Now we have African-American actor Smollett fabricating story of being beaten by MAGA, white supremacists; every media outlet and Democratic political leaders at the national level joining in the chorus to blame MAGA, white supremacists, only to find out that Smollett was lying; hired two "Nigerian brothers" to beat him up; then filed a false police report. Headline: grand jury? Could face three years in prison. My hunch: the case is dropped, and Smollett shows up on Oprah Winfrey to begin his rehabilitation. A year from now the case will be forgotten and Trump will still be "the story."

February 16, 2019, T+45: quiet.

February 15, 2019, T+44: President Trump signs funding bill to prevent partial government shutdown; declares national emergency on southern border.

February 14, 2019, T+43: day 20 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Looks like Schelosi will send President Trump a valentine care with $1.5 billion to continue building the wall. 

February 13, 2019, T+42: day 19 of open border negotiations and amnesty.

February 12, 2019, T+41: day 18 of open border negotiations and amnesty. My hunch is that no one will stand in line to vote for Joe Biden. Turnout for Joe Biden will be a record low. Turnout for Trump will be high, maybe not as high as the number who voted for Trump when he ran against Hillary, but the lower turnout will be Biden's problem, not Trump's. Link here. This is why some folks want "virtual voting" -- vote on apps, vote by phone. Those who don't want to stand in line can simply phone it in.


February 11, 2019, T+40, day 17 of open border negotiations and amnesty. The tea leaves suggest negotiations have broken down. The 21-day deadline: Thursday, February 15, midnight.





February 10, 2019, T+39, day 16 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Pocahontas officially enters the race; wants to be commander in chief; is first Native American to run for president of the United States (need to fact check). It is important to archive Occasional-Cortex' socialist program. It will gradually fade away and I don't want our granddaughters to miss this:

  • ban affordable energy (already happening)
  • eliminate nuclear energy (very likely to happen)
  • eliminate 99% of cars
  • gut and rebuild every building in America
  • eliminate air travel (1,500 global --mostly American -- billionaires won't go along with this)
  • a government-guaranteed job even for those "unwilling to work" -- bizarre to say the least
  • free education for life
  • a salubrious diet; to fix grocery stores in the US
  • a house for every American citizen (despite the fact that a sizable proportion of Americans don't want their own home)
  • free money (already being tried in at least one city in California)
  • bonus insanity: ban on meat
It will be interesting to see how long NPR leaves AOC/GND FAQs on-line. As of 10:37 a.m. Central Time, February 10, 2019, the link is still working. Multiple sites, including this one, have noted that AOC has removed the FAQs from our website and is now disavowing it as "her" document, suggesting that it was a GOP "dirty trick." How ridiculous has the media become? The Drudge Report banner today: more of President Trump's schedules have been released, and they are not even the fully detailed schedules given out to only a few folks.
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The Daily Note
Archives

The New Congress (first 100 days)
 Day 39 -- present
Day 23 - Day 38
Day 1 -- Day 22 

After The Midterms (partial govt shutdown)
Day 1 -- 57: from the election to the new Congress

Iran Sanctions
Days 67 -- 85

Fight's Back On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)

Fight's On: Trump Exits "The Iran Deal" (A Win)
Fight's On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)
 
The 38 Days Following The Schumer Shut-Down (A Bust)
The 2 Days of The Schumer Shut Down (A Bust)
The Last 65 Days of His First Term
Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days