Sunday, September 17, 2023

Nvidia Cash Flow -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45685TECH.

Link here.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Heresy: does the US need Ford, GM, or Stellantis?

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1

Apple -- AAPL -- News -- Following Release Of iPhone 15 -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45684AAPL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Two Words I Love To Hear: Insatiable Demand -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45683TECH. 

Nvidia is literally shipping tons of GPUs.

Link here

Insatiable demand:

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Too Late?

From earlier today.

Link here. Graphs at the link.

I've been "burned" by Motley Fool a few times, but not often.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

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Word of the Day: Rotogravure.

I think I've seen this word before. 

Link here to wiki.

Rotogravure.

  • wiki;
  • a process; a type of printing used to print pictures, photographs, etc.
  • a process, but apparently can be used as a noun for the picture or photograph produced by the process;
  • similar to calling a "snapshot" produced by a Polaroid camera, a "polaroid."

Sunday Sports -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45682NFL. 

Unlike college football, the NFL has no "cheap" games in the opening weeks. 

Opening season for college football: ranked teams played unranked teams and in some cases, really, really bad teams. The games are jokes (some exceptions, of course).

Until late in the season, college football is a big disappointment for fair weather fans like me. Other than diehard fans, does anyone even remember any college games from yesterday.

NFL? Second week. Already, the Kansas City Chiefs game is hugely important. Losing two in a row at the beginning of a season would be a headline story.

So, why did NASCAR schedule playoff races to Friday and Saturday? NASCAR was not going to compete with the NFL.

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The Book Club

Dark Hero of the Information Age: In Search of Norbert Wiener, the Father of Cybernetics, Flo Conway and Jim Siegelman, c. 2005.  

Notes.

An aside: Drexel University is an incredibly good research university. Private, non-profit. Located in Philadelphia. Ranking: 105 in the US among college and universities.

The US: what a great country.

Harvard has always fascinated me. The chicken or the egg. 

Reading chapter one of the biography of Norbert Wierner again shows just how incredible Harvard is. The students that end up going there; the faculty; the alumnae; the successes. Amazing.

Update On The MRO Goth Well / MRO 2E-G-J-S Pad In Bailey Oil Field -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45681B.

From May 13, 2021:

With the possible exception of one, these five wells have all been completed and are now producing.

Well of interest (which, I'm sure, I have posted before):

  • 16654, 311, MRO, Buehner 34-12H, Bailey, t8/07; ccum 512K 7/23; jump in production back in 2019; a jump from 800 to 43,000 bbls is 44x jump in production.
BAKKEN5-20203013319132981234920483174682062
BAKKEN4-20203017302174021705826682201475326
BAKKEN3-20203125299252452563029121193078094
BAKKEN2-20202927971279182970228620026754
BAKKEN1-20202724594246902963124984410019202
BAKKEN12-20193143129432715423439080595824698
BAKKEN11-2019720602201072571516561014152
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-201900800000
BAKKEN6-201928153615487531285690418
BAKKEN5-2019932323142129884160
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-201900180000
BAKKEN12-2018123063697831117991
BAKKEN11-20183084382731979849653

Halo Effect In The Bailey; 13x Jump -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45680B.

From November 20, 2021:

Let's take a look at #17537:

  • 17537, 503, MRO, David Beck USA 24-7H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 391K 9/21; cum 494K 7/23; a jump from 2,000 to 26,000 --> 13x!!!
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20233123308232853421034729294413146
BAKKEN6-2023302527725190487962848225856949
BAKKEN5-20232726217261988033626610217191144
BAKKEN4-2023131069610219791751036879291189
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20231313157505
BAKKEN12-2022186477274041521135410
BAKKEN11-202230163915748372801246225
BAKKEN10-20223120782137116141143620115
BAKKEN9-2022302241236211743223283123

The following is off line:

  • 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 488K 9/21; cum 519K 2/23;

16807 is PA.

Apple, Foxconn, India -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45679TECH.

Four companies so closely connected, impossible to separate them out ... Apple, Foxconn, TSM, Arm. Possibly, Skyworks, Unity.

 From Reuters:




OpenAI: generative AI <--- GPUs <-- Nvidia. Arm is focused on CPUs, not GPUs. If there is a "tie-up" between Arm and generative AI, this "almost" changes everything. Without generative AI / GPUs, Arm is a non-growth company and at 110x earnings, hardly a value company.

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Nvidia

NVDA.

Link here. Graphs at the link.

I've been "burned" by Motley Fool a few times, but not often.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

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Streaming

Link here.

I've always wondered how long one needed to listen to a song to get it "to count." Now, we know: 30 seconds.

In 2022, on-demand music streams in the U.S. alone exceeded 1 trillion. Starting in the mid-2010s, the success of streaming services like Spotify, Tencent and Apple Music led the music industry into a period of sustained revenue growth for the first time since 1999, the year Napster launched. But the rise of streaming hasn’t just transformed the business of music; it has changed the music as well.

In 1972, the Temptations hit number one on the Billboard Hot 100 charts, winning three Grammys, with a seven-minute version of the song “Papa Was a Rollin’ Stone.” Before the Temptations sing a word, an instrumental introduction featuring organ, guitar, bass, and a hi-hat cymbal ebbs and flows for more than four minutes. If the group were in the studio today, the title chorus would most likely have been featured much earlier in the song. That’s because music streaming services pay artists based on the number of plays each month, and to count as a play, a user must listen to the song past the 30-second mark. If a song you’ve never heard before takes a long time to get to the hook or simply has an extended intro, there is a good chance that you may simply hit the button to go to the next song.

To keep the “skip rate” as low as possible, musical artists are increasingly moving a song’s hook or chorus to that initial 30-second sweet spot. Nate Sloan and Charlie Harding, the hosts of the “Switched on Pop” podcast, have coined the term “Pop Overture” to describe a new trend in which a song “will play a hint of the chorus in the first five to 10 seconds so that the hook is in your ear, hoping that you’ll stick around till about 30 seconds in when the full chorus eventually comes in.”

Creators are modifying more than just the introductory sections of tracks for optimal performance on streaming. Every track that is listened to for more than 30 seconds counts as a play, but whether a listener makes it all the way through a song helps to determine whether a streaming service like Spotify will recommend similar songs in the future.

For any number of reasons, it would be easy to tweak the 30 seconds to 29 seconds or 28 seconds or 27 seconds ....

... I also believe that one can "play" a 30-second snip of a song without violating copyright laws. Needs to be fact-checked. If so, may help explain why streaming counts went with "30 seconds."

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45678B.

The wells:

  • 39564, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 3H, Oliver, no production data,
  • 38987, conf, Hess, RS-Harstad-LE-1555-91-0433H-1, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2023126706243
6-202399322702
5-2023124683010
4-2023550
3-2023938773
  • 39595, conf, Neptune Operating, Sigmma Lee 14-23 3H, Squires,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20232103018232
6-20232070812560
5-2023126889441
  • 39569, conf, CLR, Eclipse SWD, Jim Creek,
  • 39563, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 2H, Oliver, no production data,
  • 39596, conf, Neptune Operating, Sigma Lee 14-23 2H, Squires,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20232261418331
6-20232158712552
5-2023118738631
  • 37265, conf, Whiting, Borseth 31-15-4H, Bully,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20232003635264
6-20232299535727
5-20232509844711
4-20232483542906
3-202329803329
  • 39134, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-33-28H, Sather Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20231012510738
6-20231285110233
5-20231356413127
4-20231531514399
3-202336283756
  • 39133, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 3-33-28H, Sather Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20231211412023
6-20231273510110
5-20231449713527
4-20231161810617
3-202314721516
  • 38902, conf, CLR, Astro SWD, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 39622, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 5 20-17-158N-100W-MBH-LLW, Winner, no production data,
  • 37264, conf, Whiting, Wilson 31-15-3H, Bully,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20231804332752
6-20232297835349
5-20232416944747
4-20232308637135
3-202345365322
  • 39064, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-LE-158-94-0706HH-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20231374815611
6-20231379313527
5-202375225871
4-20231494415727
3-202368395054
  • 37263, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15-2H, Bully,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20231723230599
6-20231794427059
5-20232338140222
4-20232148535555
3-202349295496
  • 39621, conf, Crescent Point Enery, CPEUSC Farthing 2 30-31-158N-100W-MBH, Church, no production data,
  • 39556, conf, CLR, Fuller 9-2H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38034, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3TFH, Antelope, no production data,
  • 39557, conf, CLR, Fuller 10-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 37262, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15H, Bully,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20231567725630
6-20231649623893
5-20232404640604
4-20232221035965
3-202351935905
  • 39558, conf, CLR, Fuller 11-2H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 34033, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 21-16 163-91-B, Portal, no production data,
  • 34026, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91D, Portal, no production data,
  • 34025, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91 B, Portal, no production data,
  • 21535, conf, Formentera Operations, Tafelmeyer C-3625-6490, Customs, no production data,
  • 39620, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 2-19-18-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 39065, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-LE-158-94-1819H-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20231438617369
6-20231323514525
5-202369586301
4-20231622819055
3-20231085211254
  • 39559, conf, CLR, Fuller 12-2HSL, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 39028, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-3MBH, Temple,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2023678125084
6-20231339366216
5-20232342679360
4-20233728263845
3-20231735824211

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45677B.

Note: we don't often see SWD wells on this list, but CLR has two this next week.

Wednesday, September 27, 2023: 116 for the month; 318 for the quarter, 563 for the year
39564, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 3H,
38987, conf, Hess, RS-Harstad-LE-1555-91-0433H-1,

Tuesday, September 26, 2023: 114 for the month; 316 for the quarter, 561 for the year
39595, conf, Neptune Operating, Sigmma Lee 14-23 3H,
39569, conf, CLR, Eclipse SWD,
39563, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 2H,

Monday, September 25, 2023: 111 for the month; 313 for the quarter, 558 for the year
39596, conf, Neptune Operating, Sigma Lee 14-23 2H,
37265, conf, Whiting, Borseth 31-15-4H,

Sunday, September 24, 2023: 109 for the month; 311 for the quarter, 556 for the year
39134, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-33-28H,
39133, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 3-33-28H,
38902, conf, CLR, Astro SWD,

Saturday, September 23, 2023: 106 for the month; 308 for the quarter, 553 for the year
39622, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 5 20-17-158N-100W-MBH-LLW,
37264, conf, Whiting, Wilson 31-15-3H,

Friday, September 22, 2023: 104 for the month; 306 for the quarter, 551 for the year
39064, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-LE-158-94-0706HH-1,
37263, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15-2H,

Thursday, September 21, 2023: 102 for the month; 304 for the quarter, 549 for the year
39621, conf, Crescent Point Enery, CPEUSC Farthing 2 30-31-158N-100W-MBH,
39556, conf, CLR, ffulleer 9-2H1,
38034, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3TFH,

Wednesday, September 20, 2023: 99 for the month; 301 for the quarter, 546 for the year
39557, conf, CLR, Fuller 10-2H,
37262, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15H,

Tuesday, September 19, 2023: 97 for the month; 299 for the quarter, 544 for the year
39558, conf, CLR, Fuller 11-2H1,
34033, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 21-16 163-91-B,
34026, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91D,
34025, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91 B,
21535, conf, Formentera Operations, Tafelmeyer C-3625-6490,

Monday, September 18, 2023: 92 for the month; 294 for the quarter, 539 for the year
39620, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 2-19-18-158N-100W-MBH,
39065, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-LE-158-94-1819H-1,

Sunday, September 17, 2023: 90 for the month; 292 for the quarter, 537 for the year
39559, conf, CLR, Fuller 12-2HSL,
39028, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-3MBH,

Saturday, September 16, 2023: 88 for the month; 290 for the quarter, 521 for the year
None.

Alligator Gar -- Everything's Bigger In Texas; The Texas Two-Step; California Gasoline Prices Surge — September 17, 2023

Locator: 45676GASOLINE.

Something's going on and no can explain it. People working from; increasing EV penetration; population falling (ever so slightly); tourists' driving season is over and yet ... yeah, I know ... the OPEC+ crude oil production cuts ....

EIA: link here.

California gasoline is refined in-state. The crude oil comes mostly from Alaska and Saudi Arabia. That may need to be fact-checked.

Also, from this article:

Compounding higher gasoline prices is a simultaneous spike in diesel costs. Diesel prices often climb in the fall due to seasonal consumption from farmers, who use the fuel for harvesting, and as demand for heating climbs. But this year, the prices are still much higher than usual.

US refiners have raised operations to near pre-pandemic levels and gasoline stockpiles, though still below normal, rose by the most in more than a year last week. The supply boost will likely fade in the coming weeks as refiners enter fall maintenance — typically scheduled after the peak summer gasoline season to avoid a price squeeze.

Much could be said.

By the way, speaking of California.

I posted the original note below but then took it down overnight as I often do to keep the focus on the Bakken, but now, overnight, there's yet another story breaking in right-wing news channels suggesting US House democrats admit Biden has a "business dealings" problem. It will be interesting to see if the WP or TNYT reports the story.

Original Post

Rumors have it there will be a Texas two-step [announcement]  in the Biden administration. The first step: Newsom to replace Kamala.

Second step: POTUS agrees to step aside to spend more time with his family. 
 
With Hunter's indictment, this becomes more palatable. The problem: as president, Joe Biden can protect Hunter a whole lot better than he could as a private citizen.

Source for the Texas two-step: not credible. 

However, for those who like to connect dots: there is a family connection between Nancy and the California governor.

The most powerful woman in politics allegedly stated last week that neither Joe nor Kamala will run in 2024.

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Paddle Boarding

Our daughter took first place in the 20-km paddle-boarding race on the Trinity River, Dallas, TX, yesterday, Saturday, September 17, 2023.
 

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Alligator Gar -- Trinity River, Dallas, TX

This is the biggest risk paddle-boarding on the Trinity River, TX: getting tipped over by an alligator gar.

Seriously. It happens.



But, in truth, the bigger danger may be: dengue- and malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
 
From wiki: