Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Hess With Six New Permits; Five DUCs Reported Completed -- November 13, 2019

Range Resources: closes Houston office, lays off staff. Link at Rigzone
U.S. natural gas producer Range Resources Corporation will be closing its Houston office, resulting in the layoffs of 50 Houston employees, a company spokesperson confirmed to Rigzone Wednesday.
The company will continue to operate its North Louisiana division, which will now be managed from the Arcadia, Louisiana office.
Range has completed $1.1 billion in asset sales in the last 12 months, all of which will go toward debt reduction.
Mainstream media death watch: Sports Illustrated, a weekly as recently as 2015, will become a monthly in 2020. The end of mainstream media as we knew it at this site. As big as the story by itself is, digging deeper, it's an even bigger story:
Most notably, sources close to the magazine say, the “close time” for each issue will be 3-4 weeks, meaning that everything in every issue must be “closed” (all text and photos edited, complete, sent to the printer) more than three weeks before the magazine comes out.
That will meaningfully change the look and content of each issue, since stories will have to be evergreen enough to have a longer shelf life on newsstands. In addition, the iconic covers Sports Illustrated is so known for, which often show newsy photographs of a championship game or notable moment that just happened in the past week, likely won’t be possible.
Big headline, but a nothing-burger: the headline -- top US natural producer looks to sell major shale assets. "Nothing burger"? This could be a billion-dollar deal. It's a "nothing burger" -- the headline suggested (to me) that a major producer was getting out of shale. No, a company with its very survivability at stake is selling assets in last ditch effort to stay alive. Comstock Resources is likely to get a very, very good deal if it proceeds with buying the Haynesville assets.

API: weekly crude oil in US storage. Today it's a "surprise" crude oil draw. Always a surprise. LOL.  A draw of 500,000 bbls for the week; consensus, a build of 1.649 million bbls. Note again the fake precision -- 1,649,000 bbls, down to the near thousand bbls. Sure. WTI trading at $57.44 after the announcement -- trending toward $58.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5565543864

Seven new permits:
  • Operator: Hess (6); Whiting
  • Field: Big Butte (Mountrail); Glass Bluff (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for a 6-well EN-Davenport pad in section 10-156-94; Big Butte oil field
    • Whiting has a permit for a Klose well in section 24-23-3H, Glass Bluff oil field
One permit renewed:
  • Lime Rock: a Schneider permit in Dunn County 
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36140, 701, Whiting, Oppeboen 12-5-2H, Sanish, t10/19; cum --;
  • 30765, 1,433, Slawson, Hunter 4-8-17MLH, Big Bend, t10/19; cum --;
  • 36371, 1,181, Kraken Operating, King 5-8 2H, Oliver, t10/19; cum --; 
  • 36373, 981, Kraken Operating, Garner 32-29 2H, Oliver, t10/19; cum --; 
  • 36372, 1,809, Kraken Operating, King-Wallace LW 5-8 1H, Oliver, t10/19; cum --;

Cooking At Home

Flashback: Slawson To Drill As Many As 30 Wells On One 640-Acre Drilling Unit -- March 30, 2017 -- November 13, 2019

Link here. Graphic updated.

A Most Painful Song

By The Time I Get To Phoenix, Galveston Medley, Glen Campbell

Intermission Right Now -- Lunch -- November 13, 2019

The clarity is incredible. Steve Jobs would be proud.

My two cents worth: DAPL operators offer North Dakota the opportunity to increase oil production, revenue, etc. Present the evidence that the engineering has been done and meets all standards, regulations. If "North Dakota" wants it, fine. If not, fine. And move on. Should take an hour, tops.

Flu Season

Is Fox the only network reporting this? That RBG had to leave work early due to "illness."

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 13, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Market: I followed futures overnight and all I saw was "red." So, now, with nothing else to do, I checked in on the market. Wow, wow, wow. Who wudda thought. All major indices again hitting new highs. And best of all, a stock I was following hit "my" buy point; and, coincidentally, dividends paid in the past few days allowed me to execute. Seldom happens. LOL.
  • DIS: I happened to mention this one in passing last week; just saying;
  • AAPL: this is most surprising; up another $2.43; who would have thought?
  • SRE: up $1.73; flirting with new highs
  • D: ditto
  • EW: ditto
  • ENB: up about a percent
  • CVX: up nicely but still below it's 52-week high
  • Fed's Powell was really, really reassuring:
  • he likes where the US economy is right now
  • he doesn't want to jeopardize the market by raising interest rates
  • no real need to see rates go up any time in the near future
 Cold and flu season: RBG misses work due to an "illness."

Dow: all-time intra-day high -- up "triple-digit" -- 1:52 p.m. EST -- November 13, 2019. Futures were negative overnight after Trump's "nothing-burger" speech yesterday; today, traders loved the remarks of the Fed chairman who suggested GDP was trending up.

Flashback: From The NDIC May, 2014, Dockets -- 32 Wells On A 640-Acre Spacing Unit

Graphic updated here.

DAPL Hearing Live In Linton, ND -- November 13, 2019

The clarity is incredible. Steve Jobs would be proud. 

My two cents worth: DAPL operators offer North Dakota the opportunity to increase oil production, revenue, etc. Present the evidence that the engineering has been done and meets all standards, regulations. If "North Dakota" wants it, fine. If not, fine. And move on. Should take an hour, tops.

ISO-New England -- November 13, 2019

Link here at 10:54 a.m. EST, November 13, 2019.


It Looks Like Petro-Hunt USA Well #34294 Has Been Fracked -- Or Soon To Be -- Let's Check -- November 13, 2019

API: 33-053-08300.


Yup, there it is: fracked 10/23/19 - 11/3/19. A huge frack:
  • 18.9 million gallons of water
  • water: 93.63% by mass
  • sand: 3.3% by mass
  • ceramics: 2.97% by mass
The well:
  • 34294, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-95-36D-35-2H, Charlson, t--; cum --;
How was this "discovered"?

Another huge Petro-Hunt Charlson well was recently taken off line:
  • 16963, 423, Petro-Hunt, USA 35D-1-1H, Charlson, t12/108; cum 776K 9/19; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

#16963 is interesting:
  • last sundry form dated November 8, 2012
  • this well has two laterals: the SW lateral; and the SE lateral
  • NDIC had a question, August 29, 2011; Petro-Hunt responded: both laterals started producing on 2-14-09
  • Three Forks
  • open hole, December, 2008
  • SW lateral: 580,578 pounds sand
  • SE lateral: 470,943 pounds sand
  • both laterals about 15,000 feet TD
  • spud: May 6, 2008
  • cease drilling: July 29, 2008
  • dual lateral in sections 35 and 36; targeting the Three Forks
  • big rig: May 23, 2008
  • kick-off point: May 28, 2008
  • "due to issues caused by extremely high gas that occurred nearby in section 2 it was decided to set casing between 15 to 40 feet of true vertical depth above the upper Bakken shale"
  • casing point reached on May 31, 2008
  • drilling commenced on June 5, 2008
  • high gases encountered
  • lateral 1: max trip gas of 3,582 gas units; a 20-foot flare
    • drilling continues; background gas increased from 4,000 units to 5,300 units
    • at a measured depth of 12,400 feet, gas increased dramatically to over 7,500 units; a20- to 40-foot intermittent flare; then dropped to a continuous 5- to 10-foot flare with 30-foot flares being  noted at connection gases;
    • due to sudden increase in flaring, etc., it was believed the wellbore crossed a natural fault and possibly other smaller faults
    • gamma had increased to 112 api, indicating the hottest gamma peak just below the target;
    • background gas ranged between 6,000 to 7,500 units with connecting gases of 6,000 to 8,000 unis; a continuous one- to ten-foot flare noted; with 15- to 25-foot flares seen at connections
    • at a measured depth (MD) of 12,951 feet, a connection gas of 8,849 units was seen; 40-foot flare
    • all data suggested the wellbore was crossing numerous faults
    • wow, a trip gas of 10,000 units noted at an MD fo 13,395 feet
    • at a MD of 13,500 feet the geologist in Denver was consulted; decided to target a slightly shallower inclination
    • TD at 14,491 feet
  • lateral #2
    • oil shows were not nearly as strong as those seen in the first lateral; it is thought that this is due to the lack of fractures and faults that were seen in the first lateral
So, let's check #34295, FracFocus has not yet scanned any frack data for this well --
  • 34295, SI/NC, API: 33-053-08301, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-95-36D-35-3H, Charlson, t--; cum --; 
The graphic:

The MRO Wardner Well Drilled Back in 2011 Shows Nice Jump In Production -- November 13, 2019

This page won't be updated.

Note the jump in production when this well came back on line -- over 8,000 bbls / 30-day month -- if new production extrapolated to 30 days --
  • 19626, 1,060, MRO, Wardner 24-35H, Killdeer, t5/11; cum 228K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From an earlier post:
  • September 12, 2019: #36167, 2,662, MRO, Meredith 14-24H, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum --; [#27074 -- Adamson, off line; #26016 -- Schaefer, off line; #26015 -- Rebecca, IA/off line; #19626 - Wardner -- off line]
Note: neighboring the Wardner well above is this well:
  • 36167, 2,662, MRO, Meredith 14-24H, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 87K 9/19, recently fracked; recent production; 47K over 23 days extrapolates to 61,603 bbls/30-day month:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Firefox Sends -- November 13, 2019

This is not new but today was the first time I tried using it and it's awesome.

I often have large files to send to family members. Neither Yahoo!Mail nor Google Mail can handle the large files except by a cumbersome process.

Just out of curiosity, I tried Firefox Send this morning. Wow, best thing since sliced bread. I'm sure others have found ways to send their large files just as easily but it's hard to beat Firefox Send.

Several features:
  • one doesn't need a separate app like Dropbox
  • one can set the number of times an attachment can be downloaded (at the other end)
  • one can set a password for each document
  • the recipient does not need any special software or any other application
  • can be sent to any e-mail address
Interestingly, my new MacBook Air with the factory-installed software makes it very, very cumbersome to download Firefox. It's not that big a deal, but it's interesting how Apple works so hard to keep their users in their eco-niche which makes sense to me, but is certainly aggravating. I generally use my older MacBook Air which works "flawlessly."

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 13, 2019

First things first: AAPL went ex-div last week. Will pay tomorrow, November 14, 2019.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Politics: I believe I read last night/early this morning, while statistically within the margin of error, Buttigieg now leads in Iowa. Monmouth poll, 10/25 - 11/11:
  • Buttigieg: 22%
  • Pocahontas: 18%
  • Biden: 19%
  • Sanders: 13%
  • One wonders if Iowans finally decided they like their private medical insurance.
Hillary: Buttigieg's surge could be "moment of truth" for Hillary. She said yesterday that "many, many people" are asking her to run (again). It is noteworthy that every time there's "movement" in the DNC primary, Hillary has a press release disguised as a news story ready to go. Dates to watch:
  • March 3, 2020: Super Tuesday -- California is the key; Super Tuesday accounts for about 40 percent of total delegate allocation. Other states favorable for Hillary on Super Tuesday and later in March: Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Michigan, Washington, Arizona. 
  • March 17: Arizona, Florida, Illinois -- if one candidate sweeps these three states, there will be immense pressure on the other andidates to exit the race 
  • April 7: Wisconsin
  • April 28, 2020: New York, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI -- "the NY primaries may be the last big delegate day of the race. if one candidate dominates every state late in the primary, party leaders will likely move to get behind that person and seek to bring the race to an end." -- NY Times
From twitter this morning:
  • Chevron will exit its 45% stake in its Philippines' offshore play, further scaling back its presence overseas
  • Beijing verbally told all regional customs authorities to suspend coal imports; the country's receipts appear set to exceed the limit set for 2019
  • IEA cut its forecast for EU natural gas demand for 2040 by 22 billion cubic meters, with the EU bloc also to become increasingly import dependent as domestic output plunges -- actually, with the closure of the Groningen field, it won't take until 2040 for EU's natural gas production to plummet;
  • Trump's speech yesterday? pretty much a nothing-burger
Disney: if you want to see how Bob Igor is monetizing the Disney name, visit your local Barnes and Noble and visit the children's display for "Frozen 2." I mentioned the other day that DIS was the new momentum stock. There are others.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

IEA Moves US Peak Oil To Mid-2030's -- November 13, 2019

Repeating their trillion-dollar mistake OPEC+ sees no need to restrict production. Bloomberg suggests:
Crude prices, trading at about $62 a barrel in London, may tumble almost 30% to $45 a barrel if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies don’t announce deeper production cutbacks, according to Morgan Stanley. Citigroup Inc. and BNP Paribas SA predict a slide to the low $50s.
That would intensify the strain on group members like Venezuela, Iran and Iraq, which are already reeling from economic crises and political unrest. It would also ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer.
“The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
LOL: OPEC+ says it will need to step in to fill the oil demand shortfall ... in 2030.

The Permian must be absolutely huge. Remember, estimates place it larger than Saudi Arabia's monster field.

IEA woke: wow, I couldn't believe the number of stories yesterday regarding the growth of US shale and the effect it will have on global markets (read: OPEC). At first, I thought it was a one-off, the story, I posted yesterday, but late last evening, I ran into story after story about US shale. From ArgusMedia, a great example:
US shale production is likely to stay "higher for longer", reducing the share of Opec members and Russia in the global oil supply, the IEA said in this year's World Energy Outlook (WEO). "Efforts to manage conditions in the oil market could face strong headwinds," it said.

In the WEO's Stated Policies scenario, which incorporates existing measures and announced policy intentions and targets, but "does not speculate on how these might evolve", annual US production growth "slows from the breakneck pace seen in recent years". But, the US still accounts for 85pc of the increase in global oil production to 2030, and for 30pc of the increase in gas. The US will produce more oil and gas than Russia by 2025 under this scenario, the IEA said.

In this scenario, US tight crude production grows from 6mn b/d in 2018 to just under 11mn b/d in 2030. The majority of this growth comes from the Permian basin in Texas, "which by itself produces more crude than the continent of Africa soon after 2030."
And, it's not going to slow down:
"There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use," the WEO said. Demand increases to 105.4mn b/d in 2030, then by 100,000 b/d each year on average during that decade to 106.4mn b/d in 2040.

From S&P Global Platts: IEA boosts US shale estimate "warning" for OPEC. Peak oil? What peak oil? Huge story:
  • US tight oil output peak moves to mid-2030s
  • OPEC's market share to drop to 36% in 2025
  • income squeeze seen for traditional producers
IEA sees US shale squeezing OPEC influence: from The WSJ --
Unceasing U.S. shale-oil production will reshape global energy markets in the years to come, bolstering the country’s influence over nations in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said that even as annual U.S. production growth slows from the pace seen in recent years, its forecast scenario for policies already announced mean that the country will account for 85% of the increase in global oil production to 2030.
“U.S. growth will limit the ability of traditional exporters to manage exports,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “Countries whose economies are exclusively reliant on oil-and-gas reserves are facing serious challenges.”
My hunch is that Warren, Biden, Sanders, et al, want to stop this. 
Perfect timing: along with the RBN Energy blog today (see below), oilprice has this headline: "Canada's oil giants are fed up with pipeline delays." Unfortunately there's not much in the story; mostly clickbait.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5565543864

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, November 13, 2019: 46 for the month; 141 for the quarter:
  • 36364, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-2HLW,
  • 36033, SI/NC, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16HA, 
  • 34881, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-4, 
  • 34880, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-5, 
  • 34836, conf, Enerplus Nyx, 149-93-33D-28H, 
  • 34835, conf, Enerplus, Eos 149-93-33D-28H-TF, see also, #23226, #23227, #26839.
  • 30991, SI/NC, BR, Gudcadia 8-1-26TFH-ULW
RBN Energy: the outlook for gas supply, demand and pipeline egress from western Canada.
Limited natural gas export options and persistently weak gas prices are not new phenomena in Western Canada. But market conditions in the past couple of years have become particularly untenable. Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) gas supply has ratcheted higher and shows signs of further growth, even as its share of export markets has been shrinking with the rise of U.S. shale gas. In-region oversupply conditions have worsened, creating transportation constraints further and further upstream in the WCSB, and prices at the regional benchmark AECO hub have seen historical lows as a result. To deal with this, and perhaps provide a long-term solution to weak natural gas prices, pipeline egress will have to expand again after a decade of decline and stagnation. New takeaway capacity is now starting to be developed. The question is, will it be enough?
Today, we discuss the expanding gas pipeline options out of Western Canada, including when, where and how much takeaway capacity will be developed.
Canadian natural gas prices have been under siege from several angles in the past few years. First, the growth in U.S. gas supplies has been eroding Canada’s market share of its traditional export markets in the U.S. So much so, that Canada’s gas exports to the U.S. Northeast have effectively been displaced by Marcellus/Utica supplies, and those to the Midwest are being challenged by the expanding pipeline footprint out of the Marcellus/Utica as well. Canadian gas exports to the U.S. West appear to be safe for now, but they too could be coming under greater threat in the next few years as U.S. gas supplies continue rising. The end result of this growing gas-on-gas competition downstream has been deepening discounts for Canadian gas prices as measured by the AECO price benchmark.