Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Gasoline Demand -- December 13, 2017

Link here.

The Market And Energy Page, Part 3, T+325 -- December 13, 2017

Politics: if I were a betting man (or woman), and I'm not, I would wager that the likelihood of the GOP tax bill passing next week just got a lot less likely: Senator John McCain is in the hospital. A non-vote is just as bad as a "no" vote at this point, I assume. Best guide to how the tax bill is going: count the number of grey hairs on Mitch McConnell's head. This is going to be fascinating to watch. At least ten Democratic senators want this bill to pass. Perhaps the two independents who caucus with the Democrats could be the lambs who vote to pass the bill if John McCain is unable to vote. 

Wow, wow, wow. I love our Honda Civic. I will never buy anything but a Civic from now on. Now this: the 2018 Honda Civic Type R, a supercar for the suburbs. The top-selling sedan on the road gets a racetrack-worthy upgrade, pumping out 306 hp and speeds of 169. Too much for the carpool lane?
But the new Honda Civic Type R—which, honest to God, Honda is giving away at $34,990 MSRP—gets all kinds of love on the streets from all kinds of people with all kinds of student loans. In the world of the attainable, this thing is a supercar.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Something tells me long term investors in oil (particularly in oil E&P are going to be reaping some huge rewards in 2018. Just a hunch. I've had that thought for several months now, and in personal discussions with a couple of folks who know the oil industry think that may be accurate. Just a hunch.

Then, today,Nilanjan Choudhury, over at Zacks had an interesting column, highlighting four oil E&P companies that might have an earnings surprise. Two of four of the companies mentioned have interests in the North Dakota Bakken: COP and NOG. The other two: Carrizo Oil & Gas; and, BP.

S&P 500. I assume the "S&P 500" is called the "S&P 500" because it has the shares of five hundred publicly traded companies listed. Five hundred. We don't see this often:

Births: it's well-known among moms that pregnant women (as opposed to pregnant men?) are more likely to go into labor during a full moon than any other time. Now, we know that babies tend to weigh less at birth when moms live near fracking sites. I honestly cannot believe The Wall Street Journal published this study. I read the headline and part of the first paragraph ... that was all I needed. Having said that, my guess is that moms with a history of delivering 11-pound babies will gladly move near a fracking site now that this study has been released.

Taxes: want to kill EVs once and for all in a low-cost gasoline environment? Levy identical road taxes on compact EVs as on large gas-guzzling SUVs.  And invade the privacy of drivers at the same time. What could be better?

Global warming? The house of cards is starting to fall. Garbage in, garbage out. Years ago, when I first started blogging, I placed popsicle sticks in a San Pedro harbor beach and monitored the Pacific Ocean sea level for five consecutive years. The popsicle had notches every one-eighth inch. I noted that the level of the Pacific Ocean rose an eighth of an inch one year but then dropped a quarter inch the following year, although that may have been an anomaly (as NASA would say) since it was clear that a dog had been playing with the popsicle stick after I found it lying horizontally on the beach. I will continue to monitor. Parking rates at the beach are upwards of $20/day so I may have to apply for a government grant to continue the research.

On Our Way To The First Of Many Christmas Dinners,
Holiday Social Events, New Year Eve Extravaganzas, 
Kwanzaa Celebrations, Hanukkah Menorah Lightings,
And General All-Around Fun 

The barefoot contessa did not wear her glass slippers tonight. 
She left them in the gold case under the watchful eye of her pet unicorn.

On the way to this event, Sophia, age 3, and her third Christmas, said Christmas was her favorite time of the year. I'm not sure she remembers her second Christmas, and I know she does not remember her first Christmas. I think she likes the idea of the Advent calendar and the elf on the shelf.

Vern Whitten Photography Will Be Taking His "Wonders Of North Dakota" Slideshow On Tour -- December 13, 2017

Vern Whitten is taking his slideshow, "Wonders of North Dakota" on tour. He will be presenting his shows at schools, service organizations, churches, etc., in the upper midwest. If your organization would be interested in having Mr Whitten present his "Wonders of North Dakota," please contact him.

Admission to his slideshow is free but his schedule is tight; opportunities are limited.

Contact Mr Whitten at:
Vern Whitten Photography
(701) 261-7658

White Butte With Permits For A 10--Well Pad In 640-Acre Spacing Unit In Clarks Creek -- December 13, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs514065181190

Ten new permits:
  • Operator: White Butte Oil Operations
  • Field: Clarks Creek
  • Comments: White Butte has permits for a 10-well Jore Federal pad in a 640-acre spacing unit in Clarks Creek; see this post from a couple of days ago; see graphic below;
Eight permits renewed:
  • BR (4): three Hawkeye permits and one Fritz Falls permit, all in Dunn County
  • Slawson (2): a Diamondback permit and a Challenger Federal permit, both in Mountrail County
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Noonan Federal permits in McKenzie County

The graphic for illustrative purposes only; 
not drawn to scale and there may be errors on the map.

The other wells in that section:

  • 28747, 2,592, Slawson, Jore Federal 2-12H, Clarks Creek, one section, 21 stages 4.8 million lbs, t9/14; cum 188K 10/17; shut in most of 6/17 - 10/17; probably due to neighboring wells being fracked?
  • 31194, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 1-12H, no production data,
  • 31193, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 13-12TF2H, no production data,
  • 31192, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 6-12TFH, no production data,
  • 31191, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 24-12TF3H, no production data,
  • 31190, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 14-12TF2H, no production data, 
The new permits from December 11, 2017:
  • 34372, 23-12TF3H,
  • 34373, 11-12TFH,
  • 34374, 15-12TF2H,
  • 34375, 3-12H,
  • 34376, 22-12TF3H,
  • 34377, 10-12TFH
  • 34378, 4-12H,
  • 34379, 16-12TF2H 
The new permits from, today, December 13, 2017:
  • 34386, 7-12TFH,
  • 34387, 19-12TF3H,
  • 34388, 6-12H,
  • 34389, 18-12TF2H,
  • 34390, 8-12TFH,
  • 34391, 20-12TF3H,
  • 34392, 5-12H,
  • 34393, 17-12TF2H,
  • 34394, 21-12TF3H,
  • 34395,  9-12TFH,
So far: 24wells planned for this one section
  • middle Bakken: 6 wells 
  • TF, 1st bench: 6 wells 
  • TF, 2nd bench: 6 wells 
  • TF, 3rd bench: 6 wells

The Market And Energy Page, Page 2, T+325 -- December 13, 2017

This market simply does not want to quit. Dow 30 up 125 points; OAS down another 4% from yesterday, trading at just around $8.00. OAS is going to be very, very interesting to watch. We don't often get opportunities to watch a CEO / BOD make a really, really gutsy call.

CEO to BOD, Come Hell or High Water

One of the best movies ever: if you see it, watch for this line: "... the bank you want? Midland and MisTrust."

The Literature Page

Of the many things I have really enjoyed in the blogosphere is a "literature-related" post some years ago regarding Virginia Woolf.

The post began:
In the summer of 2007, I was reading Virginia Woolf's Mrs Dalloway for the second time. It was during that summer, that I realized that Mrs Dalloway was a prose poem. I did not know at the time that others were well aware of this and I was discovering nothing new.  But for me, it was very, very exciting.
But the reader had to "wade" through a lot to get to the highlight:
It is hard to read what is written at the original source (a PDF of the British Journal of Nursing, 1922), but the source references a "talented young Russian artist, Marie Baslcirtseff, buried at Passy, and references also this song, Allerseelen.  "Baslcirtseff" is misspelled and is actually "Bashkirtseff."  Marie Bashkirtseff (1858 - 1884) was a Russian artist famous for her published journal; her tomb is a recreaction of her studio and has been declared a historical monument by the government of France.
I wrote all that to note this: right now my "go-to" book is Growing Up With The Impressionists: The Diary of Julie Manet, translated and edited by Jane Roberts, c. 2017.

It turns out that Julie Manet, the niece of Edourd Manet, the famous Parisian painter, in her diary written during her teen-age years mentions reading and enjoying Marie Bahkirsett's diary. From page 112 and following, dated September 15, 1897:
I read a few pages of Marie Bashkirtseff's diary this morning, as I didn't have time to finish it on the journey. It's really very interesting to read the diary of an intelligent young woman with an open mind; she is curious, not at all snooty as I had believed from what I had heard others say of her. Underneath it all, she isn't really big-headed, though she does tend to put on airs and graces a bit, and for this she undoubtedly has plenty of imagination. If she repeats over and over again that her painting is so good, it's to persuade herself that it is because she must be aware that she paints badly. She evidently had a natural aptitude for many things, perhaps too many talents, because, if she had been taught well, she would probably have done better.
But among bad painters, from a family who understood nothing about art, what could she do? What a sad life, without misfortune it is true, but sad because she had the sort of personality which created problems for herslef; she was far too precocious -- at age 12 she was already talking like an 18-year-old.

What particularly infuriates me about her is that, living at a time when Manet and all the Impressionists were painting, she never mentions them at all. Her need to succeed young and her devouring ambition must be a sign she knew that her life was going to be short. What an interesting person; and so funny, too. Her correspondence with the famous A. in Rome when she was 15 is both very charming and terribly amusing.
With regard to Marie Bashkirseff, the editor writes, page 203, note 80:
Marie Bashkirtseff (1858 - 1884), young Russian painter and writer, who exhibited at the Salon and worked in a realist style close to that of Jules Bastien-Lepage, with whom she was romantically linked. Her outspoken Journal, which was published in 1887 after her death from consumption, was widely read and discussed by artists.
And then this note, page 212, note 292:
Marie Bashkirtseff's naturalist paintings must have seemed appalling to Julie Manet, the daughter of [an accomplished landscape painter,] Berthe Morisot!

Bethel Home Veterans Honored -- December 13, 2017

From today's Williston Herald:

Carl Oksol in the photo above. I did not know this would be in the local newspaper today. A reader alerted me to the story. A huge "thank you." Dad is still going strong at 95 years old.

This is what dad will appreciate most about this story: the misspelling of his last name in the caption above. As a general rule, "everyone" misspells "Oksol." Usually it's "Oskol" but I've never seen "Hoksol" before.

When I'm asked over the phone for my last name, I reply: "... O...K..." and then invariably the person asking for my name says, "Yes, you can give me the spelling of your last name now." And then, again, "....O...K..." pausing, waiting for the individual to repeat, "Any time now, the spelling of your last name." "... O...K...."

Dad tells me that the key to longevity is having your name spelled wrong, and/or changing addresses frequently -- that way the grim reaper will "never" find you. Or at least take a long time looking.

From the linked article:
Bethel Lutheran Nursing Home held its Christmas for Senior Veterans party Tuesday in Williston. About 75 veterans gathered for the 17th annual Christmas for Senior Veterans party at the nursing home. The veterans, who served in World War II, the Korean War and Vietnam, along with others, were treated to lunch and presented with gifts during the event.
The article was very short. They should have let Dad write the story: it would have required a "special 4-page insert" to describe his WWII experiences. A lot of advertising revenue.

Not The Only Word Misspelled

From the same newspaper today:

Re-Balancing Drops To 36 Weeks; Might Be Lower -- December 13, 2017

EIA crude oil inventories, for week ending December 8, 2017:

  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.1 million bbls; down to 443 million bbls
  • refineries operated at 93.4% capacity, pretty much unchanged
  • imports actually increased slightly week-over-week

Re-balancing drops to 36 weeks:

Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

Week 1
May 3, 2017
Week 2
May 10, 2017
Week 3
May 17, 2017
Week 4
May 24, 2017
Week 5
May 31, 2017
Week 6
June 7, 2017
Week 7
June 14, 2017
Week 8
June 21, 2017
Week 9
June 28, 2017
Week 10
July 6, 2017
Week 11
July 12, 2017
Week 12
July 19, 2017
Week 13
July 26, 2017
Week 14
August 2, 2017
Week 15
August 9, 2017
Week 16
August 16, 2017
Week 17
August 23, 2017
Week 18
August 30, 2017
Week 19
September 7, 2017
Week 20
September 13, 2017
Week 21
September 20, 2017
Week 22
September 27, 2017
Week 23
October 4, 2017
Week 24
October 12, 2017
Week 25
October 18, 2017
Week 26
October 25, 2017
Week 27
November 1, 2017
Week 28
November 8, 2017
Week 29
November 15, 2017
Week 30
November 22, 2017
Week 31
November 29, 2017
Week 32
December 6, 2017
Week 33
December 13, 2017

I base the "re-balancing" on the historical average of around 350 million bbls of US crude oil in inventory (not counting the SPR). That puts "re-balancing" out to 36 weeks. However, if one were to raise the "350 million bbls" to "400 million bbls" the re-balancing would drop to 17 weeks. Very interesting (assuming the math is correct).

Bakken Economy: Williston Hospital Launches Air Ambulance -- December 13, 2017

EIA crude oil inventories, for week ending December 8, 2017:
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.1 million bbls
Williston hospital launches air ambulance services, story here.

The Market And Energy Page, T+326

Market: this is a real surprise -- I expected the market to be down this morning with the GOP control of the US Senate just barely hanging on. But the Dow 30 -- setting another record yesterday -- opens up 70 points and is headed for another high.

Conservative investors; dividend investors: if such investors saw their portfolios drop significantly yesterday, it was because the utilities and some other high dividend payers dropped one to two percent.

Fed rate: lots of talk about the "Fed rate" today.  With regard to the "Fed rate," the most important thing President Trump did was appoint a new chairman.

The Great Recession, 2007 - 2012, according to wiki.

The graphic:

It is expected that "the Fed" will raise rates by a quarter percent today, or as they say, 25 basis points, or as Becky Quick over at CNBC would say, 25 handles.


Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Amazing: folks are talking about unemployment rates as low as 3.5% by the end of next year. No link, idle chatter.

Workforce participation: the share of the population between 25 and 54 ears old that has a job, 79%, touched the highest level since the recession ended in 2009.

Dirty little secret: there are more than a dozen Democrats in the US Senate that want the tax bill to pass; it would be interesting to see how this would play out if Mitch McConnell can't get the votes to pass this bill. No link, idle chatter.

Five main drivers of oil prices in 2018, Financial Times:
  • the Forties pipeline system, the operator is Ineos (a one-time anomaly -- will have minimal effect)
  • demand (well, duh)
  • OPEC and Russia eye an exit strategy (okay)
  • Venezuela (hardly; Canada can easily make up the difference; output from V. has declined to 1.8 million bopd from 2.5 million bopd at the start of 2016; not even a million bbls; it's the wrong "type" of oil, but even the Permian/Bakken could easily make up V.'s shortfall)
  • non-OPEC supplies, like US shale output (another, duh)
OPEC raises demand forecast: world oil demand will grow by 1.53 million bopd in 2018. Data points:
  • U.S oil production has recovered to about 9.7 million barrels a day after hitting a recent bottom of 8.5 million barrels a day in September 2016
  • OPEC's total oil output fell by 133,000 barrels a day to 32.45 million barrels a day
  • from an earlier post, August 6, 2017, OPEC July oil outputs hits high of 32.82 million bopd on Libya recover. OPEC is about 1 million bopd above ceiling.
Saudi Aramco lifts spending plans to $414 billion over next decade, from Reuters via Rigzone. producer has been expanding its businesses.

US fuels the world as shale boom powers record oil exports, from Bloomberg via Rigzone:
The world’s largest oil consumer exported more hydrocarbons than ever before in 2017 and shows no signs of slowing down.
You name it -- crude oil, gasoline, diesel, propane and even liquefied natural gas -- all were shipped abroad at a record pace. While the surge comes many years after the shale boom started, it can be traced straight back to the [Bakken revolution]. U.S. exports are poised to expand even further, as the fear of peak oil supply has all but vanished just as a new demand threat emerges in the form of electric vehicles.
Permian Basin refinery project doubles in capacity, from Rigzone:
The developer of a planned West Texas refinery has decided to increase crude oil processing capacity in the Permian Basin by one-third rather than one-sixth.
MMEX Resources Corp, which in March of this year unveiled plans to build a 50,000-barrel per day (bpd) refinery in Pecos County, Texas, on Nov. 17 broke ground on the facility’s 10,000-bpd crude distillation unit (CDU).
Moreover, the company has raised the capacity of its planned refinery – to be built on a 250-acre site northeast of Fort Stockton – to 100,000 bpd. The Permian Basin’s three existing refineries can process 300,000 bpd of crude oil, and MMEX plans to start the permitting process for its refinery early next year.
MMEX’s project will be one additional outlet for growing Permian crude oil production. In just the past week, companies such as Enterprise Products Partners L.P. and Phillips 66 and Enbridge have announced projects to add crude pipeline takeaway capacity from the region.  
Forties Pipeline: oil, gas firms could lose millions due to shutdown. Companies mentioned: EnQuest plc and Premier Oil plc. Others mentioned: BP, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs514065181190

RBN Energy: will a wave of Permian pipeline projects avert takeaway constraints?