Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Evensong And Literature -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48439ARCHIVES.

In the last couple of days, Ripon Cathedral has been featured on the blog. Tonight, I'm watching / listening to (on YouTube) Evensong at Canterbury Cathedral, something I find very enjoyable, relaxing, soothing.


When in Yorkshire, northern England, for weeks and sometimes months on end, I found it incredibly rewarding to attend evensong in one of the local / regional cathedrals. As mentioned earlier, Ripon Cathedral was 16 miles / 24 minutes away, and that's where I most often attended Evensong. When I went to Evensong at Ripon Cathedral I was struck by the fact that if there were 75 folks in attendance, 45 were church participants, most members of the choir(s). Of the remaining thirty, twenty-five were generally older, grey-haired, and of a different generation than my generation. Of the remaining five, there were two of us from an American military unit stationed overseas. And that was it. The population of Ripon is 16,000 and probably serves an area or region with a population of 30,000 and yet a most incredible setting and a most incredible service brought in many seventy-five folks.

The same is true of Canterbury Cathedral Evensong. It appears not more than seventy people are in attendance, and fifty are church members participating in the proceedings. Absolutely free, no standing in line, welcomed by all, and a wonderful beef Wellington before heading home. The service lasts approximately 35 minutes and it's mostly the choir.

*****************************
The Literature Page

I don't think I've ever read a word of Charles Dickens. I had been told he was impossible to read or impossible to enjoy or impossible this or impossible that.

And I was told his books and his writing went on forever and forever.

So tonight I find myself reading Charles Dickens for the first time ever. It's a long story why I started. Suffice it to say, I am (reading it).

So, I'm reading Bleak House.

It was released by Charles Dicken, 1852 - 1853, in installments, one or two installments once a month over nineteen months or maybe more often than once a month, but from beginning to end, twenty installments were released over nineteenth months. 

I read the first chapter earlier this afternoon. It took about twenty minutes and I thoroughly enjoyed it. There are sixty-seven (67) chapters. 817 pages. To put that in perspective, The World According to Garp, which I also started reading this past week, is 503 pages.

I found the first chapter incredible. Wow, it was nothing like I expected. I truly enjoyed it. And that's the problem with American education. Students are expected to read it during a semester of literature, along with a ton of other reading. It's impossible. They're not reading it. They scanning in. They're reading it enough to meet the minimum requirements set by the professor or the teacher. 

I may or may not finish the book. But I will read it the same way the folks read it in 1852 - 1852 -- one or two installments each month, or perhaps slightly more often.

817 pages / 19 months = 43. So about 40 - 50 pages at least once a month.

Victor Davis Hanson: President Donald J. Trump And The Fate Of The United States -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48438ARCHIVES.

Probably worth a listen. 

Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-1RZML5FnE&t=1731s

How important is where your degree comes from? Fast forward to 35 minutes at the link above. 

He will also tell you why food is getting more expensive. No, it's not due to government deficit spending. LOL.

****************************
Beautiful, Beautiful Evening

The weather has been wonderful today. Overcast, a bit of mist, with a forecast of heavy rain overnight. But very, very temperate, almost warm all day. 

By tomorrow, it will stop raining; by Friday, it will be dry; and, over the next seven days, starting Friday, it's going to be very, very warm -- almost "hot" for this time of year, and sunny, sunny, sunny. It's going to be awesome. Our adult daughter will be in a paddle board race somewhere in north Texas.

Now, in the background, while I'm typing this, a bit of rain and a lot of thunder. Sounds wonderful. We're forecast to get two to four inches of rain. 

*************************
Eggs

Yesterday at our local grocer's.



It is forecast that these eggs will be priced at $8.40 a year from now. So, we'll see.

*****************************
The Deluge

I just came back from taking the garbage out to the compactor. Holy mackerel.

I believe the ratio is 10:1. Ten inches of snow equates to one inch of rain.

We are predicted to get two to four inches of rain overnight.

10:1.

That makes twenty to forty inches of snow overnight. 

I think folks understand twenty to forty inches of snow overnight.

Well, let me tell you, I've never seen so much in my life coming down as I'm seeing tonight. Generally, we get a huge cloudburst that lasts twenty minutes. Tonight it looks like we're going to get a steady, long-lasting drenching. It could be generational. LOL. 


Bellwether Of American Chip Industry -- Update -- How's It Going? January 29, 2025

Locator: 48437TECH.

My understanding that by now -- from six months ago -- INTC would be turning a "profit" for investors. 

Ticker today:

Price Of Beef -- January 28, 2025

Locator: 48436BEEF.

A reader noted the high price of beef.

Two graphics:


The Anti-Social Century -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48435ARCHIVES.

Derek Thompson published an intriguing graphic in his essay one week ago in The Atlantic. Link here.

It was a very, very long essay, but, unless I missed it, Derek failed to "explain," or even discuss the sudden drop-off that began in 2010. I discussed the graph with a few folks, none of whom were interested. LOL. But it was driving me nuts. In general, Derek associated the "anti-social century" with technology, and it seemed, he put most emphasis on the iPhone. 

Perhaps I will post a narrative later, but I assume most folks can connect the dots.

Note:

  • Derek's thesis: technology is responsible for "less-social teens." That's the pessimist's view.
  • my thesis: an optimist's view. To be discussed in a different blot, maybe next week.

First, the graphic again, without annotation. These are twelfth graders, seniors, last year of high school. Surveys taken annually since 1975 -- "going out with friends two or three times per week":

Now, with annotations:

Napster: revolutionary!

Netflix, reaching its stride.

iPhone 4 -- FACETIME!

Something missing:

Finally, the writer did not discuss one fact. I may have missed it so I'm going back to the article but if he missed "this," it speaks volumes about the writer's ability to analyze this issue. Maybe next week, if not sooner.

********************************
Original Post

Posted one week ago:

Locator: 44744TECH.

There's an interesting 12-page essay in the February, 2025, issue of The Atlantic.

The title: "The Anti-Social Century,"

Link here

The writer makes a lot of observations, raises a lot of issues and references, among others, Jean M Twenge, the author of the best-seller Generations, c. 2017. 

One of several graphs that piqued my interest. This is a survey of high school seniors (twelfth graders):

Unfortunately, the author notes the graph but does not do any satisfactory analysis, at least as far as I'm concerned.

I plan on coming back to this one but in the meantime spend some time on the graph.

The author's (and Ms Twenge's) thesis is that much of this is due to technology, e.g., the iPhone.

The trend is pretty much flat-lined for forty years (1970 - 2010) and then declines significantly over the next decade. It's impossible to miss this "hockey-stick" phenomenon. 

With regard to technology, name the top three technology breakthroughs that could explain this graph.

I'll provide the correct (LOL) answers later this evening if I don't run out of time.

WTI Drops; Trending Toward $70 -- Trump Hoping He Can Get Price Of Oil Down To Bring Down Inflation -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48434B.

Sentenced:

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.62 -- big drop; down $1.15; down 1.56%. I haven't been watching the news: have "they" been talking about a recession?

Active rigs: 36.

Five new permits, #41561 - #41465, inclusive:

  • Operators: Silver Hill Energy Operating, LLC (4); Empire North Dakota, LLC.
  • Fields: East Tioga (Mountrail); Starbuck (Botttineua)
  • Comments:
    • Empire has a permit for a Goldeye well, NESW 32-161-78, 
      • to be sited 2110 FSL and 2400 FWL;
    • Silver Hill has permits for four Rice E wells, NENW 25-158-94, 
      • to be sited 323/428 FNL and 2262 FWL.

Six XTO permits reinstated: #37310 - 37313, inclusive, and #37354 - #37355, inclusive;

  • Field: North Fork (McKenzie)
  • Location: NWSW 24-149-98; SWSW 24-149-98; SESW 35-151-98.

Trump 2.0 -- Day 9 -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48433TRUMP.

January 29, 2025, day 9:

  • will sign the Lincoln Riley law!
  • EO: to direct DOD to prepare a 30,000-bed facility at Guantanamo Bay to take the most serious offenders
    • this will double the number of beds / capacity at Guantanamo Bay
    • this has been in the works for quite some time; seldom reported (if ever reported) by the legacy mainstream press
    • Trump - JD Vance - Tom Homan - Kristi Noem - Pete Hegseth - 
    • Tom Homan says pace of deportations not fast enough; "must do more"
    • Trump says border crossings have dropped to zero

Anyone not paying attention is not paying attention.

A remarkable morning. Incredibly moving. I am personally unable to wrap my head around this whole tragedy. 

It is just remarkable how the roosters are coming home to roost after four incredibly negligent years. 

I don't think I've seen a more somber / sad / moving law signing.

And graciously took the first question from a most tone-deaf journalist. 

***********************
FOMC

Clearly stated:

  • inflation has risen slightly
  • it's a low-hiring economy but labor market is "fairly" stable

Investors (so far) take the "rate pause" in stride.

 *********************
Sentenced

Quick Note -- Airlines And Price Gouging -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48432ARCHIVES.

Wow, I'm in a great mood this morning.

We'll have a bit of rain over the next 24 hours but then more than a week of sunny weather and a high of 72°F on the weekend. The days are getting noticeably longer and it's just a matter of time before the swimming pools open up again. 

The dip in the stock market -- I love how "they" call it a "dip" -- was another opportunity for young investors. I remain fully invested at all times. I have a rolling 30-year horizon. I don't plan to leave my heirs any money: they will inherit our entire estate of US equities and the dividends that come with those equities. I've already started the process.

I will be off the net for awhile. I walk Sophia to the bus every morning and I'll be leaving in a few minutes. I've been up for a couple of hours updating production data for Bakken wells. A lot of old sites were updated. I've referenced a few of the sites that I updated, but most of the updates were done without bringing the posts forward.

It's getting more and more impossible to keep up with the news. More on that later, perhaps.

I'm looking forward to a cross-country trip or two or three this calendar year. Whether it all plays out or not, hard to say. I'm too comfortable in my apartment. LOL. 

************************
Of Interest

From Forbes this morning: 

First up, AI:

Venture firm General Catalyst is leading a $50 million funding round into Onebrief, a startup that makes collaboration software to help Pentagon leaders speed up military planning 

Chris Miller, a former acting Secretary of Defense and co-author of Project 2025, also joined the startup’s board, telling Forbes his role provides a link to the Trump Administration ahead of what Silicon Valley hopes will be a bumper year for startups working with the Pentagon.

Second: in most instances this would be called "price gouging." But I guess "price gouging" only refers to items bought by poor folks. Is it appropriate to use the phrase "poor folks" any more? I've lost the bubble on such things. Anyway, back to "price gouging":

Major U.S. airlines have boosted flight capacity from Kansas City and Philadelphia to New Orleans ahead of the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl, and experts recommend booking flights now to avoid the steepest prices. Nonstop tickets to New Orleans from domestic airports are already averaging $979 per round-trip ticket, significantly higher than the average domestic airfare of $294 for a round trip, according to the travel platform Hopper.

**************************
Travel

Wow, wow, wow!

The [London] Telegraph ranks the 1,250 prettiest and ugliest cities in "Britain." Link here.

We lived in England for many years:

  • first, the family lived three years in southeast England, in Suffolk County, near Cambridge, northeast of London; and,
  • then over a period of four years I spent many months in Yorkshire, near the Scotland border.

It was awesome. Four of the prettiest cities noted by The Telegraph were in the areas that we lived. Most notably, Ripon was one of the four cities and where I spent a lot of time, at the Ripon Cathedral for evensong. 

In the immediate area of Ripon was another city that made the cut for being most beautiful: Ilkley, West Yorkshire. Ilkley was a 23-minute drive from where I stayed / worked while in Yorkshire. I have no idea how many times I would have driven through that village. Bolton Bridge, nearby, was a favorite destination. As for hiking, I usually hiked north and west of Menwith Hill which means I probably did not hike through Ilkley.

When on temporary duty, up to four months at a time, I stayed at the Wellington Inn in Darley, just a fifteen-minute walk from the base. Maybe 30 minutes. I forget. I often got picked up by someone driving that direction so seldom had to walk. Occasionally the Air Force would allow me to rent a car while at RAF Mildenhall. 

I would usually hike all day Saturday and all day Sunday. I would leave as early as 7:00 a.m. and not return until 7:00 p.m. In general, all my day-long hikes were solitary, but on many outings by car and short walks I generally had one or two female companions from the air base who also shared the joy of ... what do they call it in Germany -- volksmarching.  Whereas the latter tends to be larger groups and very well organized, the walks I did in England were anything but. 


A Step Down Memory Lane -- The Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum -- Reposting -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48431MUSEUM.

Note: decades ago, the first love-of-my-life -- we were both in our early20's, I suppose -- maybe in our mid-20s -- she was a Harvard medical school student doing rotations at Mass General. I was going down a a similar road but out in Southern California. Linda lived in a brownstone apartment on Beacon Street, in the 400-block. It was a gorgeous location and a gorgeous apartment. How she could afford it, I do not know but she had the highest tastes so it did not surprise me. 

Years later I learned that Isabella Steward Gardner and her husband lived out their entire lives on that same street in Back Bay, Beacon Street in the 100-block. If she walked, it would have been a 16-minute walk for Linda from her apartment to Ms Gardner's apartment. I doubt either of us knew that at the time. 

Our lives were way too busy with other things. 

Beacon Street:

Some say the American dream is owning a big house.

Not me. My American dream would have been ....

********************************

The note below was posted back in 2012. I happened to be reading about the Isabella Stewart Gardner museum again the other day and then happened across this post from thirteen (wow, thirteen!) years ago. It's worth posting again for the grandchildren and the archives.

******************* 

A note to the granddaughters

[After posting the note below, I got a few comments from others including Arne C. who directed me to his blog: http://miscbaseball.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/a-very-brief-historical-tour-of-fenway-park/]

Now I know why you love this art museum, Boston's Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum.

You have visited at least once, but that was before the new "wing." I visited it for the first time yesterday, and I was simply overwhelmed. I had never seen anything like it before, and my first impression was this is the best art museum I had ever seen.

Now, 24 hours later, reflecting on it, maybe it's a bit much to say this is the best art museum in the world, but it may be the best art museum experience in the world.  It certainly is a museum no one should miss. If you visit Boston and have time for only one museum, I think this would be it. And that's a tough call. Competing for your time: the Museum of Fine Arts in Boston; the JFK Library and Museum south of Boston; and, the Peabody Essex Museum, north of Boston in Salem/Essex. But whereas the MFA is a "typical" big city fine arts museum, the ISG is unique. The ISG Italian palace is part of the experience; for some (including me) the palace may be THE experience.

I was overwhelmed. Even though the new wing has been open now for several weeks, the line to purchase tickets still exceeded my expectations.  We walked through a long glass corridor to get to the palace. Immediately upon entering, one realizes one is in a different kind of museum. The three-story structure is built around a classic Italian courtyard. I was immediately reminded of the Roman baths in Bath, England. Absolutely spectacular. I explored three or four rooms/corridors/hallways in the immediate area after emerging from the glass corridor -- the rooms around the courtyard on the ground floor, and I realized I was overwhelmed. It was a unique experience. I did not have the same experience in the Louvre. I assume I had some idea of what to expect when visiting the Louvre for the first time, but I had no idea what to expect when visiting the ISG for the first time.

I went back to the new wing to collect my thoughts. In the opposite quadrant from the restaurant, is the "living room." Isabella Gardner loved books; in fact, I believe she started collecting books before she started collecting art, and throughout the museum -- I hate to call it a museum -- it's a palace -- are shelves of her books. I could spend hours in the "living room." With comfortable sofas and individual chairs, surrounded by books to be read by visitors, it is a most relaxing room. It is "outside" the palace proper and thus no admission charge. There were several books I spent some time with, but my two favorites: the 2012 anniversary edition celebrating the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park; and the collected letters of Isabella Gardner and her co-conspirator in art collecting, Bernard Berenson. 

This is my snapshot of the ISG Museum story. Isabella loved life. She married a New York City man who created his own wealth through smart investments; they moved to Boston where they settled in the newly filled in Back Bay. She was not well educated but she more than made up for that by self-education for the rest of her life. She was devastated by the death of her 2-year old son. To get her out of her depression, her husband took her to Europe. That began her love for travel, Europe, particularly Italy, and an eye for collecting. She had taken some "adult courses" under a history professor at Harvard which was probably the life-altering event in her life with regard to art and history.

Through serendipity, she met a young (incredibly handsome) Harvard undergraduate Bernard Berenson who wanted to be the intermediary identifying, buying, and collecting art for a rich patron. He began scouring the continent for art work for Ms Gardner who had just inherited $1.6 million from her father upon his death.

She and Berenson collected art at the turn of the century and became a very, very close and successful team. The stories coming out of the museum suggest they had had a "come-to-Jesus" moment when she discovered he was being paid a handsome commission by European dealers from whom he bought art, as well as a five percent commission from Ms Gardner. Obviously it was to his advantage for the dealer to increase his prices. Berenson must have been extremely persuasive (and very, very good looking); Ms Gardner stuck with him. The relationship appears to have grown stronger and closer.

Unexpectedly her husband died about this time; I believe she was in her late 40's or 50's. (Let's see: she was born in 1840; the palace opened in 1903 -- so late 50's I guess.) Knowing she had little time left in her life, she began immediately designing and building an Italian palace to house her art collection. She chose an empty lot near where Fenway Park came to be. Fenway Court, as she called her palace, opened in 1903; Fenway Park in 1912. The ISG Museum is now just a few blocks (within walking distance of the Boston Museum of Fine Arts) on the Green Line.

For more, visit the ISG Museum website.

Incidentally, there's a little nook, a little corner on the first floor with two chairs, a table with a dozen books, and a lamp. I don't know if Ms Gardner placed that ensemble there herself but it has "her" feeling. I don't think many visitors realize it provides an opportunity for folks like me, who become overwhelmed, to simply sit and reflect on this most personal of personal museums, as some have described this palace.

Oh, and by the way, the lunch menu was very unique and the food excellent, including affordable wines. I had a Samuel Adams -- you know, I was just reminded that Paul Revere was captured before he completed his midnight ride. Walt Whitman admitted he used artistic license to write his poem. But, Paul Revere was able to warn his close friends Sam Adams and John Hancock before he was captured. But I digress.

Huge Jump In Production -- CLR Whitman Well In Oakdale Oil Field -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48430WHITMAN.

The Oakdale oil field wells have been updated. They are tracked here

Perhaps the largest number of spectacular wells in one oil field in all of the Bakken. These are simply incredible wells. Most at 500K or trending toward 500K. Many at 900K bbls crude oil cumulative or trending toward that number. Several over 1 million bbls crude oil cumulative.

I believe I just posted some updated data regarding the CLR Whitman wells in the Oakdale oil fied.

I can't remember if I posted this jump in production for this well:

  • 17061, IA/664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, Bakken; tested 6/08; 461K 12/18; it's off line again.
BAKKEN10-20223114261143141238018998187572
BAKKEN9-2022303619436217258343996639770196
BAKKEN8-20221831218310871770825267236651602
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20211423655373872750
BAKKEN8-2021316565505212418220
BAKKEN7-2021265847562110346960
BAKKEN6-2021307135795712478430

Updating Some Nice Grayson Mill Wells In Alger Oil Field - January 29, 2025

Locator: 48429ALGER.

From a blog posted April 27, 2012, an update, link here:  

Examples of other wells in the immediate area (these are huge wells):
  • 18654, 4,335, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Sorenson 29-32 1-H, s2/10; t4/10; cum 458K 10/16; cum 565K 11/24;
  • 17355, 3,909, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Cvancara 20-17 1-H, s10/10; t3/11; cum 303K 10/16; cum 428K 11/24;
  • 19513, 4,661, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Sorenson 29-32-2-H, s10/10; t3/11; cum 394K 10/16; cum 533K 11/24;
  • 18628, 4,357, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Jack Cvancara 19-18 1-H, s3/10; t5/10; cum427K 10/16; cum 569K 11/24;
  • 19057, 4,106, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Domaskin 30-31 1-H, s7/10; t10/10; cum 416K 10/16; cum 501K 11/24;

Back in February, 2010, Irish Oil and Gas Company acquired 120 acres in the Alger Field for $7,300/acre which works out to $4.7 million/section. The 120 acres are in sections 11, 12 and 13, T155N-92W.

Back of the envelope:

  • eight wells on 1280-acre spacing (this drilling unit has eight wells)
  • eight wells x 500,000 bbls cumulative at $50 / bbl = $200,000,000
  • $200,000,000 / 1280 = $160,000 / acre

Disclaimer: I often make simply arithmetic errors. Sophia has not double-checked my figures on this.

RBN Energy: Evaluating Venture Global -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48428RBNVG.

RBN Energy: assessing Venture Global's assets in the wake of its $1.75 billion IPO. Archived.

Venture Global put U.S. LNG on center stage after going public on January 24. The company, now listed as VG on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), launched one of the largest initial public offerings (IPO) in U.S. energy history. The IPO shares were priced at $25 each, raising $1.75 billion but valuing the company at $60 billion, a significant drop from the company’s initial target of up to $110 billion. While Venture Global was able to capitalize on some truly fantastic timing, going public just as President Trump took office and lifted the export permit ban, the market remains cautious about LNG and the energy sector. While Trump will certainly smooth the path at least somewhat to new LNG buildout, lawsuits and regulatory hurdles won’t simply disappear overnight. In addition to the general regulatory uncertainty facing the industry, there is also the matter of Venture Global’s contentious relationship with its original customers: Shell, BP and others have brought arbitration cases against the company that have yet to be resolved. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at Venture Global, its assets and what its IPO says about U.S. LNG. 

Venture Global is one of the largest players in U.S. LNG, with the 10-MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) Calcasieu Pass operational, although still technically commissioning (more on that shortly); the 20-MMtpa (2.65 Bcf/d) Plaquemines LNG under construction or commissioning now; CP2 in the late stages of development and nearing a final investment decision (FID); and two more speculative projects to pursue after CP2. Between Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, the company will own and operate 30 MMtpa (4 Bcf/d) by the end of 2027, leaving it second to only Cheniere Energy when it comes to U.S. LNG output (see King Creole for more on the big three players in U.S. LNG). And with more projects in the queue, Venture Global is obviously shooting for Cheniere’s crown. All of Venture Global’s LNG projects use midscale modular technology rather than traditional large-scale trains, promising investors shorter construction timelines and requiring less startup capital to build these smaller, factory-fabricated, but scalable units.

  Venture Global’s LNG Terminals and Pipelines

Figure 1. Venture Global’s LNG Terminals and Pipelines. Source: RBN

Venture Global took FID on its first U.S. LNG terminal, Calcasieu Pass (red diamond in Figure 1 above), in August 2019, although the project had been under construction since February of that year. The terminal has 18 mini trains, grouped into nine blocks, for a total nameplate capacity of 10 MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) and an expected peak capacity of 12.4 MMtpa (1.64 Bcf/d). Nameplate capacity is what is guaranteed by the design of the project by the engineering partners, but all LNG terminals have the ability to produce above that level. 

WTI Trending Toward $73, Again -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48428B.

Trump's classified document case: DOJ drops cases against Trump's co-defendants.

Hess earnings:

Trump / Schwab: link to The WSJ

Gen Z: burned out over work. Business Insider.  Behind a paywall. Good luck.

EVs: heavy-dut trucks hitting regulatory result in California. Link here.

Colombia, link here:

Note: there are three really good writers / contributors for oilprice.com. Alex Kimani is one of the three. The other two: Charles Kennedy and Simon Watkins.

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: 473.07.

New wells:

  • Thursday, January 30, 2025: 46 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year,
    • 40488, conf, Grayson Mill, Wahus 12-1F XE 1H,
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025: 45 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 45 for the year, 
    • 38940, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 4-32H, 

RBN Energy: assessing Venture Global's assets in the wake of its $1.75 billion IPO. Archived.

Venture Global put U.S. LNG on center stage after going public on January 24. The company, now listed as VG on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), launched one of the largest initial public offerings (IPO) in U.S. energy history. The IPO shares were priced at $25 each, raising $1.75 billion but valuing the company at $60 billion, a significant drop from the company’s initial target of up to $110 billion. While Venture Global was able to capitalize on some truly fantastic timing, going public just as President Trump took office and lifted the export permit ban, the market remains cautious about LNG and the energy sector. While Trump will certainly smooth the path at least somewhat to new LNG buildout, lawsuits and regulatory hurdles won’t simply disappear overnight. In addition to the general regulatory uncertainty facing the industry, there is also the matter of Venture Global’s contentious relationship with its original customers: Shell, BP and others have brought arbitration cases against the company that have yet to be resolved. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at Venture Global, its assets and what its IPO says about U.S. LNG. 

Venture Global is one of the largest players in U.S. LNG, with the 10-MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) Calcasieu Pass operational, although still technically commissioning (more on that shortly); the 20-MMtpa (2.65 Bcf/d) Plaquemines LNG under construction or commissioning now; CP2 in the late stages of development and nearing a final investment decision (FID); and two more speculative projects to pursue after CP2. Between Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, the company will own and operate 30 MMtpa (4 Bcf/d) by the end of 2027, leaving it second to only Cheniere Energy when it comes to U.S. LNG output (see King Creole for more on the big three players in U.S. LNG). And with more projects in the queue, Venture Global is obviously shooting for Cheniere’s crown. All of Venture Global’s LNG projects use midscale modular technology rather than traditional large-scale trains, promising investors shorter construction timelines and requiring less startup capital to build these smaller, factory-fabricated, but scalable units.

  Venture Global’s LNG Terminals and Pipelines

Figure 1. Venture Global’s LNG Terminals and Pipelines. Source: RBN

Venture Global took FID on its first U.S. LNG terminal, Calcasieu Pass (red diamond in Figure 1 above), in August 2019, although the project had been under construction since February of that year. The terminal has 18 mini trains, grouped into nine blocks, for a total nameplate capacity of 10 MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) and an expected peak capacity of 12.4 MMtpa (1.64 Bcf/d). Nameplate capacity is what is guaranteed by the design of the project by the engineering partners, but all LNG terminals have the ability to produce above that level. 

ISO-NE Trending Toward $450 / MW -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48427ISONE.

Electricity costs in New England, New York right now -- 5:30 a.m. local time on the East Coast -- 

  • New York: practically free
  • New England: trending toward $450 / MW
ISO-NE:
ISO New York:
ERCOT Texas:

 Screenshots: