A Musical Interlude -- And A Bit Of Politics -- December 6, 2024

Locator: 44511POLITICS.  

Richard Nixon: is no longer viewed by voters as the worst president of the modern era.

Being reported tonight, everywhere except on MSNBC and CNN:

The musical interlude:

From a few days/weeks ago, the original post, December 1, 2024, with updates:

Locator: 44473TRUMP.

The New York Times:

The WSJ:

Biden gives cover to Trump for future pardons. 

Biden:

• "I absolutely won't drop out of the race for president."
• "I absolutely won't pardon my son."

*************************
Biggest Political Story Not Being Reported

November 5, 2024: the election.

November 6, 2024: election results, generally uncontested, known in "record" time -- Trump elected president. Biggest upset since Truman.

November 11, 2024: Trump starts announcing members of his administration.

December 1, 2024: most of the Trump top appointees have been announced. 

December 1, 2024: Musk.

December 1, 2024: not even one full month. President Biden's swan song (pardons his son). Kamala Harris drops out of sight. 

December 6, 2024: there are reports that Biden will give blanket pardons to at least a dozen "Trump targets."

Enerplus With Four New Permits; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 6, 2024

Locator: 44510B.  

ET: Energy Transfer -- yeah, that company -- announces a new Permian Basin pipeline -- intrastate -- link here:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.20.

Active rigs: 37.

Four new permits, #41402 - #4405, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus (Chord Energy: Oasis, Whiting, Enerplus)
• Field: Eagle Nest (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for four wells in Eagle Nest: Aspen, Katmai, Arches, and Olympic, SESW 31-149-94; 
• to be sited between 616 FSL and 584 FSL, and between 1876 FWL and 1922 FWL.

Two permits renewed:

• Hunt Oil, Palermo and Nichols, Mountrail County.

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39218, 997, Petro-Hunt, USA 146-97-29A-32-4H, Dunn County;
• 40461, 2,197, MRO, Swenson 24-10H, Dunn County;
• 40462, 2,786, MRO, Finholt 34-10H, Dunn County;
• 40532, 5,444, MRO, Stella 44-10H, Dunn County;
• 40533, 4,608, MRO, Durkee 44-10H, Dunn County;
• 40535, 3,419, MRO, Prince 14-11H, Dunn County;
• 40536, 2,013, MRO, Franklin 14-11TFH, Dunn County;
• 40539, 3,293, MRO, Framstad 41-15TFH, Dunn County;
• 40540, 2,691, MRO, Rex 11-14H, Dunn County;

Change of operator for about 50 wells, from EMEP Operating, to Morningstar Operating.

Walmart Vs BRK-B -- December 6, 2024

Locator: 44509BRK. 

Three months:

Six months:

One year:

Five years:

Max:

Intergenerational Wealth Transfer -- Update -- December 6, 2024

Locator: 44508ARCHIVES.  

Updates 

December 8, 2024: within hours after posting the orinal note, Carl posted this note on Bluesky:

Social media comments (aka nattering nabobs of negativity) suggest some / many folks don't realize this is already occurring and will continue to snowball. Less important: a single curve. More important: the sum of the three (four?) curves). A fifth curve will start by 2048.

Simple arithmetic: 46 + 15 + 39 = $100 trillion.

Note: most folks will fixate on the yellow line after 2040. But importantly, right now, the yellow line is around $750 billion, or rounding to $1 trillion. To put that in perspective, MMFs are holding about $7 trillion. MMFs become a "holding tank" while heirs decide what to do with their cash inheritance.

Original Post

Links:

• Merrill Lynch, 2024: link here.
• Japan Times, December 6, 2024: $105 trillion. Link here.
• Bloomberg, December 5, 2024: same story as the Japan Times. Link here.
• Fortune, November 25, 2024. Paywall but note the amount, $84 trillion. Link here.

Merrill Lynch:

IT’S BEEN CALLED THE GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER in history: $84 trillion in assets is set to change hands over the next 20 years, according to estimates by the consulting firm Cerulli Associates.

The recipients, primarily members of Generation X (those born between 1965 and 1980), millennials (1981-1996) and Gen Z (1997-2012), are expected to inherit $72 trillion of that amount, mainly from baby boomers, with the rest going to charity.

What could this historic transfer of wealth mean for the markets? That depends a lot on important decisions these heirs make as they invest all or part of their good fortune. Will they choose the same mix of stocks, bonds, cash and real estate that their boomer parents gravitated toward? Or strike out in different directions, exploring radically new investment opportunities in search of greater growth? Already, some clues are emerging: 75% of millennial and Gen Z investors surveyed for Bank of America Private Bank’s “2022 Study of Wealthy Americans” believe “it’s not possible to achieve above-average returns solely on traditional stocks and bonds.”

Hmmmm? Crypto? 

Look how fast things are changing:

Rising stock markets and home prices, as well as inflation, have fattened the estates that members of the baby boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, are expected to leave their heirs. The latest inheritance projection by Cerulli is 45% higher than the 25-year forecast the firm made only three years ago. US gifts and inheritances are expected to total $2.5 trillion next year alone.

Three years ago? Biden was still in his first year of his presidency. 

Updated MRO Activity In Reunion Bay -- A Twelve Well Mega-Pad -- Or Is It A MAGA Pad? The Betty Lou USA Pad -- December 6, 2024

Locator: 44507B.

 The updated map:

Selected wells, production update, not previously reported:

40376, drl/A, MRO, Becker USA 34-32TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/24; cum 40K 10/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2024	31	22476	22460	37410	37938	37842	0
BAKKEN	9-2024	25	17040	17014	41167	19512	19464	6
BAKKEN	8-2024	1	0	0	119	0	0	0

40377, drl/A, MRO, Hultberg USA 44-32H, Reunion Bay, t9/24; cum 86K 10/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2024	31	29449	29475	22291	37007	36915	0
BAKKEN	9-2024	29	52194	52120	48985	64968	64809	20
BAKKEN	8-2024	5	4790	4783	9750	6246	6217	1

40378, drl/A, MRO, Humble USA 44-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/24; cum 71K 10/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2024	31	24047	24048	34703	29646	29572	0
BAKKEN	9-2024	29	29918	29897	37335	32645	32566	10
BAKKEN	8-2024	9	17037	17012	19970	21299	21198	63

40379, drl/A, MRO, Spaulding USA 42-32H, Reunion Bay, t8/24; cum 127K 10/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2024	31	28380	28414	21608	34919	34832	0
BAKKEN	9-2024	28	56203	56178	29981	46401	46291	14
BAKKEN	8-2024	16	42831	42769	34216	40422	40235	117

40380, drl/A, MRO, Thelma USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/24; cum 133K 10/24; 57,214 bbls over 20 days extrapolates to 85,821 bbls over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2024	31	29755	29772	28984	46822	46703	1
BAKKEN	9-2024	29	46225	46236	38267	49608	49488	15
BAKKEN	8-2024	20	57214	57131	55643	65154	64848	191
BAKKEN	7-2024	2	0	0	9	0	0	0

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From September 24, 2024

Locator: 48386MRO.

Disclaimer: done quickly while being highly distracted -- could be many typographical and content errors.

The wells:

• 40376, conf/drl, MRO, Becker USA 34-32TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40377, conf/drl, MRO, Hultberg USA 44-32H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40378, conf/drl, MRO, Humble USA 44-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40379, conf/drl, MRO, Spaulding USA 42-32H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 40380, conf/drl, MRO, Thelma USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	2	0	0	9	0	0	0

• 40400, conf/drl, MRO, Donkin USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 37834, loc/drl, MRO, Betty Lou USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum -- ; npd;
• 37835, loc/drl, MRO, LaVerne USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	7	16168	16101	13574	19357	18252	1034

• 37836, loc/drl, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	7	26377	26268	26893	32239	30396	1725

• 37837, loc/drl, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	9	31642	31511	26849	31513	29750	1650

• 37838, loc/drl, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	14	31437	31307	41228	30567	28863	1595

• 37839, loc/drl, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	14	31437	31307	41228	30567	28863	1595

• 37839, loc/drl, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	18	47741	47544	47913	56489	53270	3013

• 37840, loc/drl, MRO, Olive USA 34-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum -- ;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	17	13144	13090	42053	13759	12986	724

Completed and producing wells:

• 33545, PNC, MRO, Robert 31-4H, Reunion Bay,
• 26805, 1,882, MRO, Renn 41-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 334K 7/24;
• 26806, 2,574, MRO, Tollefson 41-4H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 383K 7/24;
• 26807, IA/2,704, MRO, Earl Pennington USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 577K 5/24;
• 27366, PA/2,395, MRO, Grover 11-3TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 251K 10/19;
• 33548, 4,283, MRO, Alexander USA 44-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum 509K 7/24;
• 33549, 5,284, MRO, Pfundheller USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum 401K 7/24;
• 33550, IA/5,989, MRO, Kattevold USA 14-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum 406K 2/24;

Chrysler -- Update -- December 6, 2024

Locator: 44506AUTOS.

TGIF -- December 6, 2024

Locator: 44505B. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq hit all-time highs after better-than-expected jobs report. Unemployment at 4.2%.

• U-3: 4.2%; up from 4.1% previous month.
• U-1 (my preferred measurement): 1.7%; unchanged from previous month

My favorite chart, link here.

Germany:

• former German chancellor Angela Merkel: her bar? Africa. Wow. Link here. Simply fascinating. what a doofus.
  

• chart of the day:

• contraction, link to The WSJ:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.81.

Sunday, December 8, 2024: 15 for the month; 119 for the quarter, 648 for the year

• 37877, conf, BR, Concord 1C,

Saturday, December 7, 2024: 14 for the month; 118 for the quarter, 647 for the year

• 40036, conf, Hess, BL-Svor-156-95-0403H-8,
• 39856, conf, Hess, EN-Lokken-LE-157-94-0805H-1,
• 35513, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-11T,

Friday, December 6, 2024: 11 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 646 for the year

• 40688, conf,  Slawson, Fish Finder 4-21-9H,
• 40108, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-9H-ELL,

RBN Energy: Texas preps to meet surging power demand from data centers, crypto miners.

Texas is the fastest-growing state for electricity consumption in the nation and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which is responsible for about 90% of the state’s electricity service, said earlier this year that peak power demand could nearly double in just six years — from about 85 gigawatts (GW) currently to as much as 150 GW by 2030.

The sudden increase is driven primarily by data centers and artificial intelligence (AI), cryptocurrency mining, the state's growing population and increasing temperatures. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how Texas intends to address its growing appetite for power.