Friday, January 1, 2021

Long-Haulers -- January 1, 2021

First we had "remote learners"; now we have "long-haulers."

"Long-Haul": until today I had only associated this phrase and/or the hyphenated word with "trucking."

But today I saw the first reference using this hyphenated word to describe those suffering from the sequelae following the acute phase of the Covid-19. 

I first saw the hyphenated word and its etymology in The WSJ this morning and then, moments ago, saw a caption for a video using the same word.

According to the linked article
:

On the morning of April 11, 2020, Amy Watson, a preschool teacher in Portland, Oregon, went to get tested for Covid-19 at a drive-up site after suffering a chronic fever. She hadn’t washed her hair, so she threw on a trucker hat with a picture of a squirrel on it, snapping a selfie to share on social media.

Two days later, her test came back positive. Later that month, after connecting with others who had contracted Covid and were still experiencing a range of chronic symptoms, she decided to set up a support group on Facebook. “I was sitting in my living room, and that hat I wore in the picture was on the coffee table,” Ms. Watson told me. The trucker hat got her thinking of long-haul trucking, inspiring her to name the Facebook group “Long Haul Covid Fighters.”

As the group kept growing, members began calling each other “long-haulers.” People gravitated toward the term, Ms. Watson recalls, because “it was validating as a group of patients to have a name given to what we were experiencing.”

Early on in the pandemic, medical professionals didn’t know what to make of the symptomatology of these Covid survivors and had no name for it. But by early June, the expression “long-haulers” started getting picked up in the media, beginning with an article by Ed Yong for The Atlantic, and the medical community soon took notice.”

In a congressional hearing in September, Dr. Anthony Fauci reported on patients who, weeks and months after recovering from Covid-19, were suffering from such debilitating symptoms as fatigue, myalgia, fever and an inability to concentrate. “They’re referred to as ‘long-haulers,’” Dr. Fauci said, giving his imprimatur to the term.

At the linked video, this caption

New research could help explain why thousands of Covid-19 survivors are facing debilitating neurological symptoms months after initially getting sick. WSJ breaks down the science behind how the coronavirus affects the brain, and what this could mean for long-haul patients.

Before ever seeing any of this, I had already predicted that Covid-19 sequelae would be the 2020's version of fibromyalgia.

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So Many Songs To Choose From;
I Went With This One

Crazy, Gnarls Barkley

By the way, with regard to this song, perhaps this is the best comment:

It took me more than a decade to realize that this song is not so much "about me" as much how a black person might feel in the white world.

It puts another level of meaning to this song.

Week 53: December 27, 2020 -- January 2, 2021

Top stories for 2020 being developed here.

Annual permit summary: link here.

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

  • Biden picks anti-oil team for cabinet;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • North Dakota crude oil production maintains month-over-month;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

  • Fed officials investigate fiery oil train derailment in Washington
  • Petrochem industry remains on ND's radar; probably in 2022
  • State legislative leaders defend spending, talk about Legacy Fund
  • ND taxable sales down almost 20% 3Q20

Operators:

Operations:

Fracking:

Wells of interest:

The Ford Mach-E -- January 1, 2021

Ford:

Earlier this week, December 30, 2020, a reader asked me whether I was reserving a Mustang Mach-E for Sophia. My not-ready-for-prime-time reply was posted here:

From Dan Neil's article in The WSJ today:

  • Ford expects global sales to be around 50,000 the first year
  • crammed under the floorboards are blocks of pouch-style lithium-ion batteries, arrayed in either 68 or 88 kWh packs (standard and extended range), for which LG Chem must charge a pretty penny. The base MSRP comes in at $42,895 (RWD, 230 miles) before any federal, state or local incentives. Our two-motor, all-wheel drive version with the larger battery (270 miles range) came in at a solidly premium $56,200. That’s $6,300 more than the Model Y Long Range AWD.
  • Ford’s freshman effort, though worthy in many respects, falls short of the Teslas in range, fast-charge support, sophistication, brand value, and driver assistance. So where does Ford get off charging more? This thing needs a $10,000 haircut.

**************************************
Deciding Whether To Watch The DVD

The twins, almost exactly ten months old.

Wow, this first year is going fast. 

Apparently A Number Of California Healthcare Workers Are Voluntarily Stepping To The Back Of The Line -- January 1, 2021

Link here, consider the source. 

I have not read the story and probably won't. I saw the headline on social media. 

I have no idea what the "real story" is and/or whether this is "fake news." But if there's even a modicum of truth in this headline, one needs to ask the question: "Just exactly how scary is Covid-19 for otherwise young (under the age of 75) and healthy individuals when up to half of healthcare workers in California say they would rather risk "natural Covid-19 than take the vaccine." Wow. 

By the way, has Johns Hopkins updated their daily data? Nope, last time Johns Hopkins updated their data was two days ago, January 30, 2020. I posted that data a couple of days ago. Active cases are plunging in the US and are really plunging in California, which is currently in first "place" among states for number of active cases per capita. 

I am not aware of any hospital anywhere having to shut their doors due to Covid-19 issues, and here we have a story that reports up to half the medics in California hospitals are refusing the "rushed-through-development-and-tested" vaccines. I will take the vaccine only when mandated and/or affects my right to move freely across state lines. I am "donating" my vaccine to those who need it more than I do.

********************************

X's and O's, Elle At Daryl's House

The best thing about this song? The studio version was recorded at Sun Studio, Memphis Tennessee.

An Equinor Jack Cvancara Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- January 1, 2021

This page will not be updated; this well is tracked elsewhere. 

The well:

  • 18628, 4,357, Equinor/Statoil/BEXP, Jack Cvancara 19-19 1H, Alger, t5/10; cum 480K 3/19; only 7 days in 11/15; back on-line as of 12/15; cum 510K 10/20;

A Zavanna Gust Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Near Williston -- January 1, 2021

This page won't be updated; these wells are tracked here

September 26, 2015: why was this well off-line so many months, recently?

  • 19981, 1,003, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 1H, Long Creek/Wildcat, Bakken; not sure why this was a wildcat; in Long Creek, east of Williston, t3/12; cum 497K 3/19; still having problems, 8/15; updates here; back on status as of 5/16; doing well but it would be nice to see better production; a really nice well; now back up to 2,500 bbls/month, 3/19;

Update, January 1, 2020:

  • 28886, 2,965, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 2H, Long Creek, t5/16; cm 420K 10/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202031326932193753280902761612
BAKKEN9-202021282926522276231062275043
BAKKEN8-20200000511551150
BAKKEN7-202000330000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202000180000
BAKKEN4-2020258277741411110
BAKKEN3-202031156517121871225762210311
BAKKEN2-2020291992175718712346022500528
  • 19981, 1,003, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 1H, Long Creek, t3/12; cum 520K 10/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202024138813671815205312008885
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202226723916425992037234
BAKKEN3-20203195510451792177221077233
BAKKEN2-20202913451186180626307248101065

An Older MRO Anthony Well In Moccasin Creek Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- January 1, 2021

This page will not be updated.

This well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative oil:

  • 28075, 3,255, MRO, Anthony USA 23-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2.5 section-long horizontal; 100% within the middle Bakken; 93% within MOC geology defined target interval; gas max at 1,300 units; 3,840 acres drilling unit; 23,148 feet TD; 43 stages; 4.5 million lbs; t2/15; cum 503K 10/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20203136573629139616701068151
BAKKEN9-2020303788372914152670215772
BAKKEN8-202028295227791177197115860
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200090000
BAKKEN4-2020174302053392
BAKKEN3-2020312037205212401864983260
BAKKEN2-2020292302233211641769812274

A Petro-Shale USA Well In The Charlson Oil Field Has Just Gone Over One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- January 1, 2021

Again, another "story" to tell in the Bakken.

This page will not be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere. Or maybe it isn't. I really don't know. I will sort it out later. 

But this is a good example of an operator managing its assets in the Bakken.

The Charlson oil field is a very, very good field, but it doesn't get much attention. There is generally very little activity in this field but when there is activity, there is generally a very good story.

The field is "owned" by a company that is not on the radar scope of most folks: Petro-Hunt.

So, we have a field with little activity, "owned" by a company not followed by a lot of folks, but an operator that has great results in this field.

Example: this well recently went over one million bbls crude oil cumulative production. Full production profile will be posted elsewhere. 

The well:

  • October 12, 2014: 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, t11/11; cum 900K 10/18; cum 1.140061 million bbls 10/20; went IA 1/14; still inactive as of 6/14; back on line and tracked here; according to NDIC this well has never been re-fracked since the 2011 frack; that is confirmed by FracFocus; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2020316596645630251341095963600
BAKKEN9-20203093999720442018833142114413
BAKKEN8-2020319986996640781602615680130
BAKKEN7-202031115441182946481808617713157
BAKKEN6-202030111131017940331658715862516
BAKKEN5-202043605832018
BAKKEN4-20202165667256208514043139011
BAKKEN3-20203195519312370823231219041111
BAKKEN2-202029849986433682319521692314827
BAKKEN1-20203195799854439828484028268
BAKKEN12-2019311014610178479827714027498
BAKKEN11-201930100629623481722838022629
BAKKEN10-2019311074311416471015067371011141
BAKKEN9-20192686448320388620130163418323
BAKKEN8-2019311157711301503323712135969900
BAKKEN7-2019311143411359500621022145076299
BAKKEN6-2019301079710920473021030525015571
BAKKEN5-2019291140511302521021183114189563
BAKKEN4-2019301351713749546020857132937356
BAKKEN3-2019311548715662574223353194283709

Look at these monthly production statistics, and remember, this well was drilled back in 2011. This well, drilled back in 2011, is producing as much oil in one month that some Bakken wells produce in their first months of production.

A Closer Look At A BR Tailgunner Well In North Fork -- January 1, 2021

This page will not be updated. The BR Tailgunner wells are tracked here.

The BR Tailgunner wells are incredible wells. How incredible will they be? Time will tell. Example:

  • 35687, SI/A, BR, Tailgunner 1B TFH, North Fork, first production, 4/20; t--; cum 129K 10/20; fracked 11/24/19 - 12/9/19; 7.7 million gallons of water; 87.5% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202031323523237120802618874828413603
BAKKEN9-20203029575296602069851239497511488
BAKKEN8-2020354205111237977567551205
BAKKEN7-202031000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-2020006550000
BAKKEN4-202027621046144939847694525839010249

Themes -- 2021


For Investors

Link here.

*****************************
Major Themes 

Energy, international:

Energy, national:

  • US, under Biden, rejoins the global push to pivot from "black" to "green"
  • Costa Azul

American agriculture:

  • Cold snap, France: ruined vineyards
  • Cold snap, Germany: took out grains like rapeseed (canola);
  • Farmers to the world

Bubbles or good investments:

  • Housing
  • Bitcoin
  • EVs (Tesla, others)

Covid-19:

Re-locations:

Unprecedented


 

Top Stories For 2020 -- IN PROGRESS

Top stories by month for the year 2020: link here

As of January 1, 2020. This will be updated for the next thirty days before it goes final. Please feel free to offer suggestions.

Permits in North Dakota, annual summary, 2020

Comment: it is interesting to look at the summary comment for 2019 where the US economy was on an incredible roll. The Chinese flu / Wuhan flu / Covid-19 pandemic was THE story of 2020. The pandemic telescoped 2020 - 2035 into 2020 - 2025. In the energy arena, twenty years from now, 2020 will be seen as the year that the world had clearly pivoted from "black" to "green." That pivot culminated in the election of a "green" president.

Elevator speech: the stories that dominated the Bakken in 2020:

  • The year drilling stopped in the Bakken
  • The gradual return to a new status quo: fewer permits, fewer rigs; steady production

Transitions:

  • Pre-packaged bankruptcies / reorganizations

International, non-energy:

  • Brexit achieved
  • Saudi Arabia finances in disarray
  • Russian, Chinese, North Korean, Iranian drum-beating completely absent

International, energy:

  • Saudi Aramco IPO one huge mistake

National, non-energy:

  • Biden beats Trump
  • Trump admitted to hospital for Covid-19
  • Apple's M1 chip
  • Boeing's 737 MAX finally cleared to fly
  • Corporate migration from CA to TX
  • Flight from NY, San Francisco
  • Remote learning (iPad, WebEx, Zoom)

National, energy:

  • US: second year of energy independence
  • LNG becomes the story
  • SRE's west coast LNG export terminal

**************************************
Top Stories of 2020
By Category

Top Story Of The Year:

  • The pandemic
  • Biden beats Trump

Runner-up story of the year:

  • Surging recovery for the investor-class; major indices hit all-time records;

The world:

  • Brexit finally achieved, last day of the year
  • Saudi Arabia's finances in disarray

Most surprising story of 2020:

  • The pandemic

The most egregious story to come out of the Bakken:

The top US story:

  • Biden beats Trump

North Dakota, energy:

  • Drilling lurches to a stop
  • Production gradually recovers to a subdued status quo

North Dakota economy:

  • Doing well but not newsworthy

North Dakota technology:

Most exciting small non-operator in the Bakken:

Most exciting micro operator in the Bakken:

Most exciting small operator in the Bakken:

Most exciting medium operator in the Bakken:

Most exciting large operator in the Bakken:

  • MRO
  • WPX

Biggest deals:

  • COP-Concho
  • CVX-Noble
  • WPX-Devon
  • FANG-QEP

Most surprising deal:

  • Father-son reunite: Pioneer-Parsley

Record price per Bakken mineral acre, 2020 (quarterly lease sales):

  • At best, maybe $500/acre
  • Generally, in the $50 - $100/acre

Bakken operations, rigs:

  • Trended toward ten active rigs
  • Ended the year with thirteen active rigs

Bakken operations, production:

  • Maintaining, barely.

Bakken operations, density:

  • Most density projects appear on hold.

Top prediction (made in 2020):

Record initial production:

Biggest story in takeaway capacity:

CBR:

  • Non-story in 2020, but the DAPL controversy continues

Pipeline:

  • DAPL controversy unresolved;

Fracking:

  • Low water fracks

Flaring:

  • North Dakota meeting targets

Natural gas:

  • Bakken sets records

Refining:

  • Dickinson greenfield refinery moves along

Investment story of the year:

The "other" Williston Basin formations:

  • Nothing.

Bakken economy:

  • Maintaining.

New (or better-understood) oil patch jargon:

  • Unitization.

Miscellaneous:

Bakken economy -- Williston Economic Development (WED) top ten stories:

US Crude Oil Imports From Saudi Arabia -- 2nd Lowest In Modern History -- October, 2020, Data

Link here

US imports from Saudi Arabia of crude oil in thousand bbls per day. Most current data, October, 2020, as released by EIA:

*************************************
Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves

Link here.


November, 2020, data:

  • total overseas reserves: increased by 2.3%;
  • 1.71 trillion riyals [works out to about $462 billion?]
  • November over October: 38.7 billion riyals

We'll see the numbers at this site later this month.

Feliz Año 2021

We will start off this morning with a quiz. 

A reader enticed me to go down this rabbit hole. I thought I had finally moved on, but then this popped up.


Mendocino, Sir Douglas Quintet

One hundred points if you can name the male dancer at about:
  • 1:30 to 1:40 in the clip;
  • for a brief moment around 1:04 in the clip; and,
  • at the end of the clip, about 2:26 - 2:33.
A bonus 1,000 points if you can name his dance date.
 
Which, of course, led me to this, LOL. 

ESL
 
This clip led me to "Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman" which led me to Mary Kay Place which led me to Shel Silverstein (which took me back to the video dancer above) which led me to Dr Hook and The Medicine Show and Randi Brooks.

China's Economy Surging; Western Economies Not So Much -- Airline Industry As A Proxy -- China Is Now The World's Largest Domestic Aviation Market -- January 1, 2021

China's airline industry surging, link here:

  • China has recovered from the pandemic to become the world’s largest domestic aviation market
  • Chinese domestic traffic is 8% higher y/y
  • U.S. down a whopping 41% y/y
  • Europe, down an incredible 68% y/y

Was anybody even aware of that? I certainly wasn't. Chinese domestic travel is up, y/y while EU and US traffic is down by figures that seem to defy imagination. 

Does anyone see significant gains in EU / US in 1H21? I certainly don't.  

More from the linked article:

Following a mild liberalization of its airline industry in 2004, China has become the second largest source of revenues for the two major plane makers, Boeing and Airbuswhich have since opened plants there
It is one of their few bright spots too: In November, Boeing downgraded its 20-year global aircraft demand forecast by 2%, but upgraded China’s by 6.3% to 8,600 planes.


By the way, watch for the Boeing 737 Max to be "re-branded" in some countries. 

China's TPs Surge -- Friday, January 1, 2021

Ternary precursor, link here. When you see "ternary precursor, think batteries, lithium, cobalt, and nickel.

  • NCM: nickel-cobalt-manganese
  • NCA: nickel-cobalt-aluminum

Ternary: three components; in this case, three metals

China's battery ternary precursors exports up, link here.

  • NCM: exports up 40% y/y
  • NCA: exports up 89% y/y
  • why? EVs -- EVs here, EVs there, EVs everywhere
  • this will be fascinating to watch
  • I'm still not convinced that folks have thought this through, but it will be fascinating to watch
  • a huge amount of spending as manufacturers and suppliers pivot from black to green

The amount of new electricity required will be incredible.

  • EVs
  • bitcoin