Thursday, January 6, 2022

$100-WTI? It's Just A Matter Of Time -- January 6, 2022

11:35 p.m. CT, January 6, 2022: I see that WTI is at $80.15.

$100-WTI? It's just a matter of time. 

It's Just A Matter Of Time, Randy Travis
 
But what goes up, must come down.

Thirty-Five Active Rigs; Fifteen Permits Renewed; One Permit Canceled; No New Permits -- WTI Near $80; Nabors B05 Drilling The Milton Flemmer -- January 6, 2022

We have the answer. See this post for background See also this post. And this one. Also here. Summit Carbon Solutions here.

  • 38594, conf, Summit Carbon Solutions, LLC, Milton Flemmer 1, NWNE 35-141-88; Mercer County; no scout ticket; NDIC doesn't have the scout ticket on this well;

Active rigs:

$79.58
1/6/202201/06/202101/06/202001/06/201901/06/2018
Active Rigs3411566354

No new permits.

Fifteen permits renewed:

  • BR (6): four Stafford permits; a Manchester permit, and a Mary Swanson permit, all in McKenzie County;
  • MRO (5): a Storedale, a Mathia, a Coan, a State Willard and a State Loland permit, all in Dunn County;
  • Oasis (4): three Foley Federal permits and one Achilles permit, all in McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

  • 37422, Slawson, Tempest Federal 4014H, Mountrail County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37882, 50, CPEUSC Burgess 4-14-23-158N-100W-MBH,Winner, no production data,
  • 37363, 1,685, Kraken, Hokanson 1-12 2H, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Devon Dividend History

Link here.  

Shale

Corporate presentations: GS Energy Conference presentations

Hess: announces a "meaningful" dividend growth this year (2022) as it start to prioritize returning capital to shareholders over business investments. January 6, 2022

PXD: dividend now running at 11% annual return. January 6, 2022. Looks like 9x growth in 2022, corporate presentation, slide 6.

EOG: dividend history. Link here. January 6, 2022.

DVN: dividend history. Link here. January 6, 2022.

DWAC: Up 9 Points Today; Trading At $59 -- January 6, 2022

Another one I missed. LOL. Up 20%. Today. On the one-year anniversary.

Oil:

  • 2019: I was too heavily invested in oil and pipelines.
  • 2022: I am way too under-invested in oil and pipelines.
  • I should have added more. LOL. 

Energy Dependent --> Energy Independent --> Energy Dominant -- January 6, 2022

I get a kick out of pundits back to arguing whether the US is energy-independent or energy-dependent.

That train has left the station. 

The US is now energy dominant

I was not the first to say that -- others are starting to say that -- but that view is corroborated by the graphic at this link

Holy mackerel. When I went to tag this, I had forgotten I already had the tag: "US_Energy_Dominance." 

The first post with that tag was posted December 10, 2019.

One might want to google US energy dominance, putting it in quotes. You might be surprised at the first hit on google.

But look at this. From Bloomberg, only one month ago, "US to become 'Energy Dominant' on global price jump, Bank of America" -- December 1, 2021. 

From Summer, 2020, edition of International Economy, Today: Dominance Denied. How America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed the oil industry. 

Perhaps better said: how America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed Big Oil allowing Small Oil to takeover.

Inflation -- Commodities -- Coffee -- Pleasant Surprise -- WTI: $79.06 -- January 6, 2022

Coffee.

We have an on-going subscription for coffee K-Cups through Amazon, which delivers a 100-count box every two months. Prior to delivery, Amazon sends an alert to allow us to modify shipment or discontinue it altogether. 

a. Six months or so ago, the 100-count cost around $22.

b. I made a one-time cancellation of the shipment four months ago.

c. Two months ago, the 100-count cost around $29.

d. Today, I received a notification that the 100-count was back down to $22. 


Oil.

  • WTI: $79.06.

Apple, 1; Zuckerberg, 0 -- Throws In The Towel In The First Round -- January 6, 2022

First things first:

I'm really not sure what this means in the big scheme of things but the headline and the story certainly suggests Apple really is the three-trillion-pound gorilla in the room.

Headline: Meta (Zetabook) halts development of in-house AR and VR operating system as launch of Apple headset approaches. Link here

Energy crisis: Asia and Japan as winter sets in. Link here. "Emergency order" from Japanese government for three regional utilities to produce more electricity due to tight power supply in the Tokyo region due to snow and frigid temperatures.

I guess it's winter and this was .... unexpected?

Jobless claims: a modest increase in jobless claims. Yawn.

**********************************
Moms With Eyes In The Back Of Their Heads

From a two-year-old's perspective:

WTI Closing In On $79; EOG Breakeven At $30; Covers Dividend At $36; Thirty-Four Active Rigs; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- January 6, 2022

Freeze: Bakken. Link here

QCOM: links chip deal with Volvo, Honda, and Renault. Based on a number of data points, this seems to be a very, very big deal. 

WTI: up 1.26%; up almost $1.00; trading at $78.81 which is about nineteen cents from $79. EOG breakeven at $30; covers dividend at $36. Just saying.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$78.81
1/6/202201/06/202101/06/202001/06/201901/06/2018
Active Rigs34
11566354

Thursday, January 6, 2022:

  • 27235, conf,  Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-24C-13-7B,
  • 37001, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 6-22H,

RBN Energy: 45Q tax credits to evolve to incentivize carbon-capture projects

Capturing carbon dioxide and permanently storing it below ground is expected to be a critically important tool in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The oil and gas industry has been a leader in showing how CO2 –– albeit mostly CO2 that is produced from underground reservoirs, not captured from industrial facilities or power plants — can be used and sequestered via enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The catch is that capturing CO2 and using it for EOR or injecting it into deep wells for eternal storage doesn’t come cheap and so government incentives are required to justify investment in carbon-capture projects. Enter the 45Q tax credit. First made available for U.S. carbon-capture projects in 2008, it has been expanded considerably since then and could soon be expanded further, although its results to date are a mixed bag at best. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss key aspects of the tax credit, how it has changed over time, and what may be coming down the pipeline.