Monday, September 28, 2015

CLR's Rennerfeldt / Mildred Wells In Brooklyn Oil Field

The "30H" wells are long laterals, running south, sited in either section 19 or 30; drilling unit sections 30/31.
The "19H" wells are long laterals, running north, sited in either section 19 or 30; drilling unit sections 19/18.

23221, 475, CLR, Rennerfeldt 2-30H, t5/13; cum 311K 3/20;
23220, 475, CLR, Rennerfeldt 3-30H, t5/13; cum 240K 3/20;

23219, 624, CLR, Mildred 2-19H, t4/13; cum 290K 3/20;
23218, 725, CLR, Mildred 3-19H, t4/13; cum 259K 3/20;

28624, 876, CLR, Mildred 4-19H, t12/14; cum 294K 3/20;
28625, 728, CLR, Mildred 5-19H1, t12/14; cum 248K 3/20;

28626, 904, CLR, Rennerfeldt 4-30H, t5/15; cum 306K 3/20;
28627, 569, CLR, Rennerfeldt 5-30H1, t5/15; cum 246K 3/20;

20200, 688, CLR, Mildred 1-19H, t6/11; cum 310K 3/20; needs to be re-fracked;

20205, 859, CLR, Rennerfeldt 1-30H, t8/11; cum 287K 3/20; off-line 8/15; back on line within a couple of months;

29196, 559, CLR, Mildred 6-19H1, t8/15; cum 217K 3/20;
29195, 622, CLR, Mildred 7-19H, t8/15; cum 323K 3/20; jump in production, 2/19; continues through 4/19;

29194, 827, CLR, Mildred 8-19H1, t8/15; cum 246K 3/20;

29193, 657, CLR, Rennerfeldt 6-30H1, t5/15; cum 265K 3/20; jump in production, 5/18; continues through 4/19;

29192, 1,051, CLR, Rennerfeldt 7-30H, t5/15; cum 320K 3/20; long, long plateau at 3,000 bbls/month;
29191, 772, CLR, Rennerfeldt 8-30H1, t5/15; cum 217K 3/20;

Jump In Production -- Noted 4/19

Small jump; unremarkable in big scheme of things, but again, the Bakken is unpredictable. 
  • 29195, 622, CLR, Mildred 7-19H, t8/15; cum 293K 4/19; jump in production, 2/19; continues through 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 29193, 657, CLR, Rennerfeldt 6-30H1, t5/15; cum 241K 4/19; jump in production, 5/18; continues through 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Earnings - 3Q15

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

Earnings Calendar

All 3Q15 earnings will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earning season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies listed below. If you see one that I have missed, feel free to send it in (anonymous comment or by e-mail) and I will post it.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

  • More than 2/3rds of the way through earnings season (November 4, 2015), reports do not seem as bad initially forecast; this was supposed to be a horrendous quarter; lots of write-downs; seems to be the quarter in which share prices in oil and gas sector were reset
General update (dates subject to change)
  • AAPL ($1.88): Huge beat: $1.96 vs $1.88 forecast.
  • AA (Alcoa) (15 cents), Oct 8: The aluminum maker reported an adjusted quarterly profit of 7 cents a share, missing analysts 13 cents a share estimate. Revenue of $5.6 billion came in roughly in line with estimates. Adjusted profit during the quarter was down 77% from the same period last year. 
  • BRK: profit more than doubles over same quarter one year ago; BNSF with 12% increase
  • TSLA: forecast a loss of 50 cents; AP story here; loss at 58 cents is bigger than expected; but deliveries better than expected and TSLA surges 7% in after-hours trading;

EPS estimates in parentheses following the ticker symbol (according to Yahoo!Finance) -- typographical errors likely.

ARII (American Railcar Industries) ($1.42):  
BizJournal; a third-quarter profit of $29.4 million, up 23 percent from $23.8 million in the prior-year quarter.

The company’s quarterly revenue totaled $172.7 million, up 6 percent from a year ago.
Anadarko (APC) (a lost of 73 cents: wow, huge miss, a net loss of $4.71. How could forecast and actual be so different? Actually, they knocked off $3.69 from the loss for "certain items affecting comparability" and when doing that they actually show a loss of only 72 cents (slightly better than forecast).

APA (- 34 cents): forecast a loss of 36 cents; Reuters;
a much bigger quarterly loss as it took a $3.7 billion writedown due to a slump in oil prices
Net loss attributable to Apache's common shareholders widened to $5.56 billion, or $14.95 per share, in the third quarter, from $1.33 billion, or $3.50 per share, a year earlier.
AXAS (- 2 cents): AP report; misses by one cent; a 3-cent loss; 

AMZG ($): Nov 5

Arch Coal (ACI) (-$5.52):
Arch Coal (ACI), forecast a loss of $5.45; much, much better -- only a loss of $3.38/share; Arch Coal soars after earnings beat; up as much as 10%; Revenue decreased to $688.5 million, down from $742.2 million for the year-ago period. Analysts surveyed at Zacks were expecting the company to report a wider loss of $5.79 per share on revenue of $688.29 million.
BTE.TO (Baytex) (- 12 cents): forecast a loss of 16 cents; press release;
a slower pace of development in the Eagle Ford and suspended heavy oil drilling in Canada. We remained focused on cost reduction;
BAX ($0.29): incredible quarter; beats by 12 cents;

BCEI (- 22 cents):  Nov 4

BHI (-10 cents): loss less than expected, 5 cent loss vs Zacks forecast a loss of 15 cents;
Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes saw revenues drop to $3.8 billion for 3Q 2015, down 39 percent compared to 3Q 2014, and a 5 percent decrease from last quarter. “Compared to the third quarter of 2014, revenue in North America declined 57 percent on sharply lower activity and unfavorable pricing, while actions we have taken to right-size our operational structure resulted in decremental adjusted operation profit margins of 30 percent,” Baker Hughes CEO Martin Craighead said in a company release.
BK ($0.72): profit down, but beat estimates at 74 cents/share; "comfortably surpassed estimates" -- Zacks;

BKH ($0.57):  forecast 58 cents; 64 cents adjusted; AP here;

BWC (Babcock & Wilcox) ($ ): forecast 32 cents; press release here; big miss; 25 cents;

Calfrac Well Services (CFW.TO) (-36 cents): press releaselooks like a 25-cent loss vs a forecast 36-cent loss;

CAT (82 cents):  big miss; 75 cents;

CHK (- 13 cents): Zacks; 5-cent loss, which is much better than the forecast 13-cent loss.

CLNE (-28 cents): forecast a loss of 28 cents; press release here;
if I read this correctly, the loss was 23 cents; much better than forecast;
CLR (- 9 cents): forecast, a lost of 12 cents; AP story; in line, lost 12 cents;

CNR.TO (Canadian National Railway) ($1.14): Oct 27
COP (-18 cents):
  • Q3 EPS of -$0.38 in-line.
  • Revenue of $16.05B (+24.2% Y/Y) beats by $7.94B. (this may be an error; was not in the corrected Seeking Alpha update)
  • Press release here
CPG.T (Crescent Point) ($): forecast 3 cents; AP; earnings came to 2 cents;

CRR (- 63 cents):
  • AP story here.
  • On a per-share basis, the Houston-based company said it had a loss of 60 cents. Losses, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 35 cents per share.
  • The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 63 cents per share
CSX ($0.51): Record 3Q15 earnings;  52 cents; The company also reported record operating profits and operating ratio. The operating efficiency helped CSX offset year-over-year revenue and volume decline by 9% and 3%, respectively. Reported revenues were $2.9 billion, operating income was $0.9 billion, and operating ratio was 68.3% for the quarter compared to 66.8% in the prior quarter.

CVX ($0.84): huge beat at $1.09; will cut 7,000 jobs

DNR (13 cents):  forecast 13 cents; AP; beats by 5 cents at 18 cents per share;

DVN ($0.56):  The AP story; wow, a huge beat -- earnings reported to be 76 cents vs 56 cents forecast per share. Reuters/Rigzone here.

ECA ($):

EEP ($0.22):  beats by 2 cents;

ENB (ENB.TO) (49 cents), forecast 49 cents; WSJ;
Canadian / US dollars makes forecast / actual difficult to compare; WSJ says 47 Canadian cents were up from 41 Canadian cents a year earlier but fell just short of hte 49 Canadian cents analysts were expecting; from Reuters: Enbridge Inc, Canada's largest pipeline company, reported a 15.7 percent rise in quarterly adjusted profit, helped by increased throughput as producers moved more oil by pipelines than on rail. The Calgary-based company's adjusted earnings rose to C$399 million ($303.4 million), or 47 Canadian cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, from C$345 million, or 41 Canadian cents per share, a year earlier. ($1 = 1.32 Canadian dollars)
EOG (-25 cents):  forecast a loss of 29 cents; press release; transcript;

EOX (Emerald; was VOG) ($ ):

EPD ($0.33):
  • misses by 2 cents
  • misses on revenues
ERF (ERF.TO) (): forecast a loss of 10 cents; AP; huge miss; actually loss 32 cents/share;

ETP ($0.25):  Nov 3 

GEOI (bought by Halcon [HK], below)

HAL ($0.31):  revenue drops 47%; a loss of 6 cents/share; huge miss;

HES (- $1.22):  Hess does better than expected; still reports a loss:
The New York-based company said it had a loss of 98 cents per share. Losses, adjusted for non-recurring gains, were $1.03 per share.
The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of $1.22 per share.
HP (6 cents):  Nov 11

HK (Halcon; previously GEOI) (1 cent):  forecast one cent; press release;
if I read this correctly, net income was 4 cents; if accurate, a huge beat; transcript;
Kinder Morgan - KMI ($0.19 ): Oct 21, after market closes

LEG.TO (Legacy/Bowood) ($):

LINE (10 cents): suspends dividend, Oct 27; preliminary results; forecast 13 cents; press release;

MDU ($0.38): forecast 38 cents; AP reports:
MDU Resources Group Inc. (MDU) on Monday reported a third-quarter loss of $139.4 million, after reporting a profit in the same period a year earlier.
On a per-share basis, the Bismarck, North Dakota-based company said it had a loss of 72 cents. Earnings, adjusted to account for discontinued operations and non-recurring costs, came to 38 cents per share.
The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 37 cents per share.
MHR (Magnum Hunter) (- 26 cents):  Nov 5

MPC (Marathon Petroleum ($1.72):
  • refiner profits jump 40%, Reuters 
  • profit of $1.76 per share
  • results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.80 per share
  • revenue of $18.76 billion in the period, topping Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $18.19 billion
MPO (-$3.28): press release here; 95-cent loss; AP here; beats by $2.91;

MRO (Marathon Oil) (- 40 cents): forecast, a loss of 40 cents; AP story here; appears to be a huge beat; loss at 20 cents vs 40 cents forecast;

MUR: beats by 20 cents; press release here;  

NE (Noble Corp) ($ ):

NBL (- 15 cents): misses, Zacks; 21-cent loss; vs 15-cent loss forecast;

NBR (-13 cents): Oct 27, after market closes

NFX ($0.17): forecast of 16 cents; AP story here; huge beat at 21 cents per share;

NGLS (9 cents):
NOG ($0.16):  Nov 4, after market close

NOV ($ 0.57):  National Oilwell: better than expected: sees weaker 4Q15;
Earnings per share (excluding one-time items) came in at 61 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents.
OAS ($6 cents): forecast of 6 cents; AP story here; works out to 9 cents/share;

OKE ($0.40):  AP story; OKE 41 cents vs 39 cents forecast; beats; press release;

OKS ($0.47): see OKE

OTTR ($0.42): forecast 44 cents; AP reports:
The Fergus Falls, Minnesota-based company said it had profit of 41 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted to account for discontinued operations, were 42 cents per share.
OXY (- 1 center): OXY adjusted profit beats expectations on cost cuts; swings to quarterly loss on $2.6 billion in charges;
The company, which has operations in Oman, Texas and North Dakota, posted a net loss of $2.61 billion, or $3.42 per share.
Occidental reported a profit of $1.21 billion, or $1.55 per share, in the year-ago quarter. 
The latest quarter’s results included about $3.4 billion in asset impairment charges.
Core earnings were 3 cents a share, while analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast a loss of a penny a share.
PAA ($0.26): forecast of 25 cents; beats by 4 cents; 28 cents EPS

PSX ($2.03):  earnings jump 34%; huge, huge beat; forecast $2.24; actually earned $2.90

PXD (Pioneer Natural Resources) (- 2 cents): 
Forecast a loss of 3 cents; press release here; Pioneer reported third quarter net income attributable to common stockholders of $646 million, or $4.27 per diluted share. Without the effect of noncash derivative mark-to-market gains and other unusual items, adjusted results for the third quarter were a net loss of $1 million after tax, or $0.01 per diluted share.
QEP (- 8 cents):
  • forecast a loss of 10 cents; press release here; beats; continuing operations, 12 cents; EPS adjusted one cent;
RRC (Range Resources):  (-2 cents): Oct 28

RIG ($0.61):  forecast, 68 cents; press release; beats by 21 cents; 87 cents EPS;

SBUX (Starbucks) ($0.43):
  • forecast 43 cents; 
  • profit jumped 11% in the third quarter driven by growing sales at its U.S. cafes, though it projected earnings for the current period that came in slightly below analysts’ expectations.
  • global same-store sales rose 8% in the latest quarter, above Consensus Metrix analysts’ expectations for an increase of 6.9%
  • same-store sales in the Americas segment grew 8%—driven by a 9% jump in the U.S.—also exceeding analysts’ forecasts.
SD (- 11 cents):  press release; 7-cent loss; to acquire North Park Bsin Niobrara shale oil assets for $190 million; acquies Pinon Gathering System - eliminates $40 million of annual expenses

SLB ($0.78): in-line.

SCTY: (-$1.95): Oct 29

SM (- 19 cents):  if this is correct, quite a beat; net earnings of 5 cents vs expected loss of 19 cents;

SRE (91 cents):
  • transcript
  • it was a $1.00 in 2Q15; forecast 88 cents; beats by 11 cents; AP here;
  • the San Diego-based company said it had profit of 99 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to $1 per share
  • the results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 83 cents per share


STO (BEXP) ($): Statoil, state-controlled; posted a net loss of $330 million compared with a loss of
$550 million same quarter one year earlier. 
STR (18 cents):  AP; meets profit forecast; reported 18 cents; exactly in line.

T ($0.69): big beat; 74 cents; increases guidance on earnings; increases guidance on free cash flow; 3Q15 revenues up almost $40 billion, nearly 19% versus year earlier; they say the 19% increase is due to DirecTV -- if so, wow!
Net income attributable to the company fell to $3.0 billion, or 50 cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, from $3.13 billion, or 60 cents per share, a year earlier. The company, reporting its first earnings since completing its $48 billion acquisition of satellite TV operator DirecTV, said total operating revenue rose to $39.1 billion from $33.0 billion.
Targa Resources (TRGP) (62 cents):  
TPLM (- 11 cents):  Dec 7

TSO ($5.32): beats by 8 cents; press release here;

TransCanada (TRP.TO) ($): forecast 60 cents; press release here; 57 cents, it appears;

Ultra Petroleum (UPL) ($0.17): Oct 29
UNP ($1.43): big beat; $1.50;

USEG ($): 

VLO ($2.60):   Valero earnings rise 40% on cheap crude oil; profit rises 30 percent; tops forecast
The San Antonio-based company said it had profit of $2.79 per share.
The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $2.60 per share.
WDFC ($0.81):  misses; at 80 cents;

WFT (- 9 cents):  a loss of 5 cents; vs expectations of a 11-cent loss;


WLL (- 21 cents):  Whiting Petroleum, forecast a loss of 25 cents; press release here; a loss of 17 cents; prior to adjustment, a loss of $9.14 vs a gain of $1.32 same quarter last year; Whiting writes off $2.57 billion in assets, including its KOG assets;

WMB ($0.23 ):   forecast 22 cents; press release here; meets at 22 cents, vs 21 cents same quarter one year ago;

WPX (- 10 cents): forecast a loss of 14 cents; AP;

slightly wider than foecast; Zacks predicted a loss of 12 cents; actual loss was 17 cents/share;
XOM (91 cents):  huge beat at $1.01; this is interesting -- a $1.01 this quarter this year, and $1.89 a year ago, same quarter; huge drop but nearly not as bad as one might have expected; color me impressed;

XLNX ($0.47):  beats at 48 cents; Wall Street  happy; Shares of Xilinx went up nearly 5% in after-hours trading yesterday, primarily due to better-than-expected earnings during the quarter and an encouraging third-quarter revenue guidance.

Five (5) New Permits; CLR Reports A Nice Well; 2/4 DUCs -- September 28, 2015

From Penn Energy today:
COURTENAY, N.D. (AP) — Minneapolis-based Xcel Energy is starting construction on a 200-megawatt wind farm in southeastern North Dakota.
KQDJ radio reports that a ground-breaking ceremony was scheduled Friday. The project should be completed next year.
Details here.

Back To The Bakken

In addition to the wells reported earlier coming off the confidential list this weekend and today, add eight (8) Corinthian Exploration (USA) Corp permits, these were eight (8) Brandjord permits for wells targeting the Spearfish/Madison formation in Botteneau County were canceled. In addition, nine (9) Slawson permits were also canceled; these nine permits were all in Mountrail County and include a Silencer permit; two Jugard permits, a River Rat permit, a Rebel permit, and four Snakeeyes permits.

Four (4) producing wells were completed:
  • 25184 (scroll down for more information), 2,317, Slawson, River Rat Federal 7-23-14TFH, Big Bend, t9/15; cum --
  • 25185 (scroll down for more information), 1,169, Slawson, River Rat Federal 4-23-14TFH, Big Bend, t9/15; cum --
  • 28371 (scroll down for more information), 941, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-6, Sanish pool, Antelope, 9/15; cum --
  • 30356, 819, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-5, Beaver Lodge, t9/15; cum --
Active rigs in the Bakken:

Active Rigs70190184190195

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
  • 29192, 1,051, CLR, Rennerfeldt 7-30H, Brooklyn, 29 stages, 3.3 million lbs, t51/5; cum 56K 7/15;
  • 29363, 563, Hess, CA-Ferguson Smith-155-95-3031H-2, Capa, t8/15; cum --
  • 30701, SI/NC, Statoil, Irgens 27-34 8H, East Fork, no production data,
  • 30855, SI/NC, EOG, Shell 29-2820H, Parshall, no production data,
Five (5) new permits --
  • Operators: Whiting (3), EOG (2)
  • Field: Glass Bluff (McKenzie), Ross (Mountrail)
  • Comments:

29192, see above, CLR, Rennerfeldt 7-30H, Brooklyn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold


25184: this well is one of several lateral re-entry projects to previously drilled vertical and curve sections on the same pad. In July, 2013, the vertical hole was drilled to a depth of 10,008' MD, and the curve was landed within the Three Forks Formation at a depth of 10,827' MD. Intermediate casing was set at 10,796' MD before the well would lay dormant. Unit #123 re-entered the well on May 18, 2015....

So, even before the marked slump in oil prices (beginning in October, 2014), operators were drilling DUCs.

The target zone was 12 feet, the top of which was 16 feet below the Pronghorn Member. Much attention was given to keeping the wellbore in the seam. The wellbore remained within the ideal target for 81% of its lateral exposure.

Background gas on occasion over 2,000 units. Reached 3,000 units at times with connections over 3,500 units. Flares: 35' to 45' -- these are some of the highest flares I've seen recorded.

25185: another Three Forks well. Background gas ranged around 2,160 units. Target zone, 12 feet thick. "At 17,424' MD, the decision was made to trip out of the borehole and change-out the failing directional mud motor and inspect the drill bit. While tripping back into the wellbore and returning back into the Pronghorn shale, reaming forward was necessary to advance. The next decision was made to abandon this trip-into the hold, for fear of getting stuck somewhere, in the 700-feet  of open and exposed Pronghorn shale. A stratum, oil field wide, that is notorious for causing very expensive and time consuming calamities."

"Slawson's geologists are targeting the Upper Three Forks Formation's highest porosity (5 to 6 percent) stratum. A stratum that is always referred to as, the target zone. the target zone's stratigraphy is identified by its following characteristics: lithology, penetration rate (ROP), gamma ray API counts per second, the visual liquid lighter fluid / fluorescence cuts, and the total gas units and accompanying chromate C1 through C6 ppm values.

"The lithology of the River Rat Federal 4-23-14TFH's 11-foot thick, stratigraphic target zone is described from the top, down. At the top, the target zone is a dolostone, interbedded with very thin stringers or beds of shaley argillaceous limy mudstone and silty dolic limestone. The target zone's lithology is further identified by the API gamma ray counts: dolostone API 30 - 45 counts, dolic-silty-limestone API 40 - 70 counts, shaley-lmy-mudstone API 80 - 110 counts."

At the end, the borehole's formation total gas ranged from 2500 to 5000 units.

28371: this pad calls for six horizontal wellbores to be drilled, with 33' spacing between wellheads. This well will target the 1st bench of the Three Forks. Reminder: C1 - C4 (methane, ethane, propane, butane, and isobutane [iso-butane: iC4 and normal butane: nC4]) components were recorded in ppm.

Upper Bakken Shale is easily recognized by the increase in drilling rate, high gamma values, and a decrease of weight on bit.

The Middle Bakken had a marked decrease in gamma values and drilling rate from the upper shale. The middle Bakken: primarily a lime packstone; further into the middle Bakken, a white silty sandstone.

The Lower Bakken Shale was identified by a large increase in gamma values and rate of penetration, the shale was described as black, soft to firm. Similar to the upper shale, the lower shale contains earthy porosity and gas shows approaching 415 units.

The Three Forks was distinguished by reduced gamma values and drilling rate from the lower shale. The Three Forks showed a complex interbedding of shale and dolomite interpreted as near-shore marine deposits.

The report stops here; it was a DUC. The well would await intermediate casing and would be re-entered in order to drill the lateral.

Why I Love To Blog, Reason #5 -- September 28, 2015

Why I love to blog. Yesterday I asked rhetorically "how is Saudi's oil strategy working out?" I thought I might be getting ahead of my headlights on that one, and then Don sends me this very, very interesting link. Peak Oil is reporting:
On Tuesday 22 September, Middle East Eye broke the story of a senior member of the Saudi royal family calling for a “change” in leadership to fend off the kingdom’s collapse.
In a letter circulated among Saudi princes, its author, a grandson of the late King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, blamed incumbent King Salman for creating unprecedented problems that endangered the monarchy’s continued survival.
“We will not be able to stop the draining of money, the political adolescence, and the military risks unless we change the methods of decision making, even if that implied changing the king himself,” warned the letter.
Whether or not an internal royal coup is round the corner – and informed observers think such a prospect “fanciful” – the letter’s analysis of Saudi Arabia’s dire predicament is startlingly accurate.
Like many countries in the region before it, Saudi Arabia is on the brink of a perfect storm of interconnected challenges that, if history is anything to judge by, will be the monarchy’s undoing well within the next decade.
Read the rest of the story at the link and see if the writer said anything more or less than what I wrote over the weekend:
  • Saudi is losing about 10% of their cash reserves annually by giving away oil for $50/bbl (but the article above suggests it could be significantly more)
  • Saudi apparently had an unsuccessful 5-year, $35 billion program to significantly hike crude oil production
  • Saudi recently completed two new refineries
  • Saudi has huge desalinization electricity demands -- and growing annually; oil used to produce electricity
  • Saudi recently canceled huge solar energy projects
  • Saudi put on hold all new capital-intensive projects in addition to aforementioned solar energy projects
  • Saudi has been told explicitly by President Obama that the US has no responsibility to guarantee Saudi Arabia' security
  • Saudi has major terrorist threat in Yemen
  • Saudi has embarked on major weapons acquisition program to defend itself against regional neighbors
  • sanctions on Iran recently lifted resulting in a) Mideast nuclear arms race; and, b) $100 billion in "new" money for Iran to pursue military objectives (I thought it was $156 billion but this article says $100 billion).
My disclaimer still holds. 

Theory Of Law Evolves ... 
Or Have We Already Seen This Movie?

My hunch is that the Hillary e-mail issue will evolve into a new theory of law for the US. [I'm not sure if I'm using the phrase correctly, but it's good enough for now.]

My hunch is that "transgressions by the president, vice president, and certain cabinet members are political and not legal issues as long as they do not rise to the level of treason." Transgressions by select members of that oligarchy will rest in the hands of the US Attorney General and short of treason will be allowed to play out in the court of public opinion.

There is a precedent (there are probably many precedents) but this one is perhaps most famous and least contentious. From wiki:
In 1804, the last full year of his single term as Vice President, Aaron Burr killed his political rival Alexander Hamilton in a famous duel. Burr was never tried for the illegal duel, and all charges against him were eventually dropped, but Hamilton's death ended Burr's political career.
And perhaps once we get through this (the most recent Clinton scandal), ten or twenty or thirty years from now, maybe even treason by select members of the oligarchy will be a matter for the voters to decide.

Petroleum News Bakken Suspended For The Time-Being? -- September 28, 2015

It looks like the suspension occurred in July, 2015. Petroleum News is based out of Alaska, I believe.

More Story Lines From Shell Calling It Quits In The Arctic

Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:
... the move “reinforces the idea that conventional drilling is fading fast and nonconventional is not going to fall by the wayside.” 
Investment in conventional drilling is waning in not only the US but around the world, ... Shell’s projects “in other areas of the world may also be dragging down their capital. 
“In areas such as the North Sea and Nigeria, we have production that remains viable, but at a loss to find consumers.”
“America was once the largest consumer of said areas, but has since dropped Nigerian crude imports to about 50,000 b/d this year,” he said. “That alone is a significant decline from 2012 when Nigeria was supplying the US with over 1 million b/d.”
Another shift in the import-export picture comes by way of US refinery utilization and production, which have hit record levels this year.
America once was a major gasoline importer, mainly from Europe, and now has cut that number in half from peaks seen prior to 2011."
“The business about production in Alaska and the Arctic has always been a political hotbed,” he added. “As we head into the 2016 presidential elections, Keystone may not be the only oil-related argument on the table.”
Meanwhile In Afghanistan

Being reported now:
The AP and New York Times, in reports on the fall of Kunduz, Afghanistan, describes it as a significant win for the Taliban. It marks the first time the Taliban has captured a major Afghan city since 2001.
Meanwhile, the President continues to talk about global warming with the Chinese.

Note Some Details Of Wells Being Reported In The Bakken Today -- September 28, 2015

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend today are being updated. Almost all of the wells have been updated -- still waiting for QEP wells. But note the specifics on the wells have have been reported.

For example, QEP used 49 stages, 9.5 million lbs proppant in a Grail well.

Note the detail in the Hess well; only 5.08 drilling days.


Tweeting now, from Jack Kemp:
UK petroleum consumption is rising at some of the fastest rates since 2005

Coal Update

This is a dynamic link. Some interesting information regarding coal.
Since falling to 118 million tons in March 2014, the lowest level since March 2006, coal stockpiles at electric power plants have returned to quantities that are more in line with same-month totals from previous years. December 2014 marked the first time since December 2012 that stockpiles were higher than they had been in the same month of the previous calendar year. Additionally, since December 2014, coal stocks have been higher than the same month of the previous year every month through July 2015.
The winter of 2013-14 was extremely cold relative to both the previous winter and normal winters, and more fuel, including coal, was burned to generate electricity to meet higher heating loads across the northern United States. This increased fuel use, coupled with limited coal deliveries in the Midwest from the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) system, contributed to the significant drawdown in coal stockpiles. Total U.S. net electricity generation was 5.3% higher from November 2013 through February 2014 than it had been in the November 2012 through February 2013 period, and 59% of that increase in electricity was supplied by coal generation, which was up 8% from levels a year earlier.
Conversely, temperatures in the winter of 2014-15 were higher than normal, and a lot less fuel was needed to generate electricity for heating purposes. Subbituminous coal stocks at electric power plants actually increased - highly atypical in winter months - because February 2015 in the western states, where most but not all subbituminous coal is burned, was one of the warmest on record. The BNSF delivery problems that contributed to shrinking piles the year before were mitigated as well, leading to larger stockpiles.
In addition, less coal is being used (resulting in higher stockpiles) as more natural gas is used (pricing, government mandates).

OXY Rumor -- September 28, 2015


November 27, 2015: Lime Rock Resources announces the deal is closed on Russian Creek acquisition. 

October 16, 2015: sold. 300,000 acres for $500 million$1700/acre (rounded). See Lime Rock Resources

Earlier Posts

February 2, 2015 MDU sale of assets to Lime Rock: Fidelity Exploration transferred about 81 gross wells, of which 49 are operated by Fidelity to Lime Rock Resources III-A. All of these were in Mountrail County; 6 in Alger field, 43 in Stanley field. The sale included 4,363 acres with production of about 2,000 bopd. The earlier permit/well file number was #17359; the most recent permit/well file number was #27192. According to the NDIC, Lime Rock has 51 wells/permits, so this is a new operator in North Dakota, also. Or it appears to be a new operator. If this is their website, the company previously had three core areas, all outside of the Bakken (mid-continent -- Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi); the Permian Basin; and, the Texas Gulf Coast). If this is the right company, this is their first property in the Bakken. [Update: Don sent me the link to the original press release which provides more background information:]
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. I do not trade or invest in OXY and don't know anyone who does.

Lime Rock Resources.

I track major Bakken operators here and other Bakken operators here. To some extent, it is arbitrary on which list a Bakken operator may appear. Generally once on the "major Bakken operator" list, they are not removed, even if they are no longer operating. On the other hand, operators on the "other" will occasionally be moved to the "major" list. Again, often arbitrary.

Background -- OXY And The Bakken

Back on February 8, 2015, in Petroleum News, OXY announced it has no plans for further Bakken development in 2015. See page 5 of this 16-page pdf.  In that article, OXY said its Bakken returns were sub-par; and, that OXY would focus on the Permian in this country, and overseas, it would focus on the Mideast.

The article also noted that OXY considered selling its 330,000 Bakken acreage back in 2013; most of OXY's acreage is in south-central and west-central Dunn County with a small amount in southeast Burke County. Then OXY backed off but then in October, 2014, Bloomberg reported that OXY might see its Bakken acreage for as much as $3 billion ($3 billion / 330,000 = $9,000/acre). 

Monday, September 28, 2015; Shell Calls It Quits In The Arctic; Apple Reports Record Weekend

Apple reports record sales of iPhone 6S, 6s Plus in first weekend 13 million vs previous record of 10 million (2014) -- though most recent numbers included China whereas not so in 2014;

Shell Oil in Arctic: not enough there to justify drilling. Will quit drilling; call it quits. See more at the bottom of this post -- scroll down.

Alcoa to split into two companies.

Russia surprises US with accord to fight ISIS. President Obama may agree to keeping Assad in power.

Williams and ETE reach deal.


Active rigs in North Dakota:

Active Rigs70190184190195

RBN Energy: 7th of 8 in the series on propane.
This is the seventh episode in the series. Episode 1 provided an overview and introduction to the analysis – beginning with the dramatic increase in propane production over the past 7 years.
Total U.S. propane output has increased by nearly 70% from an average of 0.8 MMb/d in 2008 to 1.4 MMb/d during the 1st half of 2015. Most of that growth has been driven by production from gas processing plants that has more than doubled from 0.5 MMb/d in 2008 to 1.1 MMb/d in 2015. The overall growth in propane has outpaced domestic demand such that as much as 50% of the total is now exported to balance the market – even as inventories are at all time high levels. [Back on September 23, 2015, Jack Kemp reported: Record propane stocks show first weekly drawdown since March; graphs are incredible; huge records being set.]
RBN’s analysis for PERC sought to understand changes to the propane market since the disruptive winter of 2013-14 as well as how susceptible today’s market is to similar events and what actions should be taken to reduce the risk of it happening again.
Our approach to the analysis involved developing a monthly model of U.S. propane supply, demand, logistics and pricing at the PADD (Petroleum Administration District for Defense) level using historic propane market data.
In Episode 2 we outlined supply and demand scenarios for the model based on oil price Growth and Contraction as well as Normal and Severe weather patterns. Episode 3 took a closer look at propane production by PADD region – noting the dramatic growth in the Northeast as well as the Midwest.
Episode 4 detailed regional historic and future projected propane demand by PADD and Episode 5 looked at the main domestic propane demand sectors. Episode 6 highlighted how new infrastructure has improved interregional connectivity across the propane market. This time in Episode 7 we consider how developing regional supply/demand balances and infrastructure could be impacted by a worst-case combination of low propane production and severe weather.
$7 Billion, 7-Year Disappointment

FuelFix is reporting:

Royal Dutch Shell on Monday said it was abandoning a $7 billion, seven-year quest for crude under Arctic waters, after an exploratory well failed to find significant amounts of oil and gas.
Shell’s exploratory oil well in the Chukchi Sea north of Alaska encountered “indications of oil and gas” but the company said they were “not sufficient to warrant further exploration” — a significant blow for the Anglo-Dutch firm that had hoped to find a multibillion barrel crude reservoir in those remote waters.
“Shell continues to see important exploration potential in the basin, and the area is likely to ultimately be of strategic importance to Alaska and the U.S.,” said Marvin Odum, the Houston-based director of Shell Upstream Americas. “However, this is a clearly disappointing exploration outcome for this part of the basin.”
Shell said in a statement that it would cease further exploration activity off the coast of Alaska “for the foreseeable future.” “This decision reflects both the Burger J well result, the high costs associated with the project and the challenging and unpredictable federal regulatory environment in offshore Alaska,” the company said.
Shell also will take a financial charge from the decision, since the firm’s Alaska assets have a carrying value of about $3 billion and the company still has an additional $1.1 billion already committed in existing contracts for rigs, ships and other assets. Shell could pare its potential $4.1 billion write down by putting some of those contracted vessels to work elsewhere or subcontracting them to others.
The full extent of the financial damage will be described on Oct. 29, when Shell announces its third-quarter earnings. But the blow could be especially significant when cast against falling earnings. Shell’s second quarter profit was $3.8 billion, compared with $6.1 billion for the same period last year. First quarter earnings were $3.2 billion, down from $7.3 billion in the first quarter of 2014.
Shell was pursuing a major Arctic oil discovery after spending a record-setting $2.1 billion to buy 275 Chukchi Sea oil and gas leases in a 2008 government auction.
Because of the costs of extracting oil and building the infrastructure to deliver it to market, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden bluntly warned earlier this year that the economics of Shell’s Arctic project would only work “if the structures are full of oil.”
For $7 billion, an operator could drill 1,000 wells in the Bakken with an almost-predictable guaranteed return.