Saturday, April 8, 2017

Wow -- This Explains The Low Demand For Gasoline; 1Q16 GDP Estimate Slashed -- Via Twitter -- April 8, 2017

This is horrendous.

From GDP Now: Latest forecast: 0.6 percent — April 7, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.6 percent on April 7, down from 1.2 percent on April 4.
The forecast for first-quarter real GDP growth fell 0.4 percentage points after the light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday and 0.2 percentage points after the employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau this morning.
Since April 4, the forecasts for first-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth have fallen from 1.2 percent and 9.7 percent to 0.6 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively.

Reader Seeks Assistance -- Montana Question -- Richland County -- April 8, 2017


April 10, 2017: see comments. A good source for information about leasing is at this site: It's been a long time since I've mentioned that site; it is one of the links under the tab at the top of the blog: Minerals.

Original Post 

Over at the Bakken Shale Discussion Group:
Does anyone know which operators are looking to lease in eastern Montana, Richland County, about 20 miles west of Fairview (Sioux Pass)? Any idea on the current offers for such leases?
The reader suggests that a number of leases have recently expired in eastern Montana.

I don't follow Montana so I can't she any light. Any help from any readers would be greatly appreciated. Comments here and over that discussion group can be made anonymously, and. of course, anything sent to my e-mail address also remains confidential.

Lady Bird Johnson and The Wild Flowers Of Texas

It's that time of the year again - Texas wild flowers along state highways and federal interstate highways.

Swedish Meatballs -- April 8, 2017


Later, 6:52 p.m.: this is pretty funny. I went to the WSJ to fact-check a few of the items below. Lo-and behold: the data point about politely asking the perpetrator to return in a year or so was pretty close to the mark. From The WSJ, it turns out this guy was previously investigated and even detained overnight (which speaks volumes how dangerous the authorities thought he might be); and, now in detention:
Magistrates have until Tuesday to decide whether he should remain in custody, and specify charges.
I can't make this stuff up, it appears, even when I try to. LOL. 

Original Post
I was off the net for almost 24 hours due to a family trip. I"m back on the grid but probably won't blog much. Too much catching up to to do, and with "all the stuff" that has happened in the last 72 hours it will take a bit of time to process everything.

But I couldn't pass this one up. Apparently, another truck injured/killed several pedestrians, again, this time in Stockholm (?). Sweden for sure, but don't recall for sure if it was Stockholm. According to news reports on the radio:
  • a truck driven by a human (as opposed to a driverless Uber truck) apparently drove off the road into a shopping area where there were a fair number of pedestrians, most likely shoppers
  • the event appeared to be similar to other "truck events" on the European continent that were later considered to be terrorist events
  • the alleged driver was detained some hours later
  • the alleged driver was apparently from one of the "Stan-brother" countries, maybe Uzbekistan or Pakistan or Afghanistan or Iranistan but probably not Kurdistan
  • the alleged driver is said to have recently returned from the Mideast
  • upon return to Sweden, the would-be driver traveled with no passport, but apparently the entire Scandinavian country (peninsula?) is a sanctuary zone and those traveling without permits are "allowed in" but politely asked (in their native language) to return within a year with documentation of .... well, almost any documentation will work
  • if the international traveler-without-papers is unable to afford a lawyer, the state will provide a one at no cost
  • if the international traveler-without-papers is unable to afford housing, IKEA will provide a "room-to-go" with one daily serving of Swedish meatballs
  • there are reports the driver went to "a special school" while back in the Mideast, or possibly on the Indian subcontinent somewhere
  • the driver was heard to yell "Allahu Akbar" when the truck left the road at high speed
As of this weekend, Swedish authorities are not calling this a terrorist incident pending further inquiry.

By the way, I think everyone remembers Sweden telling President Trump he had no idea what he was talking about when he (Trump) was talking about the "Swedish problem."

Note: most everything above certainly seems to barely have an element of truth in it, but that's what I thought I heard on the radio. I had been driving many, many hours and may have been having auditory hallucinations. Or it may have been NPR.

Speaking of which, and this is the absolute truth: immediately after 59 US naval Tomahawk missiles struck a Syrian airbase, NPR (radio) had a story on "the reaction from Damascus, Tehran, and Moscow." I cannot make that up. I thought, momentarily, I was listening to Voice of The USSR.

Week 14: April 2, 2017 -- April 8, 2017

This was the week the US launched 60 Tomahawk missiles on a Syrian air base; 59 hit the air base; one went into "the sea." There was almost universal global support for Trump action against Syria; the only dissenters -- Paul Rand, Syria, and Russia.

Brent/WTI moved upward slightly but at the end of the day, essentially flat. The market essentially flat. Bad, bad news for Saudi Arabia.

Mexico is reported to be in dire straits.

To prove the point that Californians don't mind paying taxes, the state will raise state excise taxes and a "variable" tax on gasoline; will increase the sales tax and the excise tax on diesel fuel; and will increase fees on annual vehicle registrations.

A new feature has been added to the blog: Einstein's definition of insanity.

Meanwhile, the economy of north Texas, east Texas, and coastal Texas is in hyperdrive:
UPS to build massive terminal outside Dallas
Dallas: #1 in the small business index; monthly scorecard
Texas energy -- RBN Energy
more energy growth in coastal Texas -- RBN Energy
Boeing's global sales division to be located in Plano, north of Dallas

The jobs reports were the big news. I track these stories here.
US manufacturing jobs hit 8-year record
horrendous jobs report but unemployment rated drops to 4.5%; US at full employment
but, number of Americans working sets record for second consecutive month (same link) 
first-time unemployment claims drop the most in two years
Boom! Jobs jump

Back To The Bakken

Random update of a Hess HA-Nelson well in Hawkeye oil field 
Random update of Whiting's fabulous Flatland Federal wells in Twin Valley oil field
CLR's Omlid-Ransom wells in Elidah oil field
BR's CCU Dakotan wells in Corral Creek oil field
WPX's Peterson wells in Van Hook oil field

With DAPL operational (?), update of Bakken takeaway capacity
Natural gas
US to add the equivalent of fifty 250-MW natural gas power plants this year (2017)

Comparing the Redtail Niobrara with the Bakken