Sunday, June 6, 2021

Grand Slam -- Four In A Row -- June 6, 2021

Grand Slam: four in a row. blast hits steel plant in Iran. See this post for the turkey. This is better than a ransomware hack -- we get live fireworks.

Great irony: While Americans were greatly concerned about GMO (incredibly safe), Fauci's alphabet agency and the CDC were funding gain-of-function research (incredibly dangerous) in China.

NASCAR: if you want to encourage folks to quit watching NASCAR races, "schedule" eight long commercials back-to-back with only ten laps to go. This is simply unbelievable. Less than ten laps to go and getting most, most interesting, and FS1 runs eight-plus long commercials. Fortunately it's a road course and eight commercials can "fit into" one lap. LOL. But not happy. 

Covid-19 vaccines: the PGA competitors are not getting their vaccinations. Neither are the US Marines. I'm not impressed.

**********************
Sophia With New Haircut

I haven't been to a barber since last February, 2020. Sophia has given me all my haircuts. 

With A DAPL Reprieve, We've Moved To "Vacation Nation" -- Micheal Fitzsimmons -- June 6, 2021

I'm still appalled that it appears the PGA players have not gotten their vaccinations but I digress.

Phillips 66 Partners -- Michael Fitzsimmons -- SeekingAlpha -- June 6, 2021:

  • PSXP units have had a sharp rally since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decided not to shut down the DAPL pipeline in April.
  • While a DAPL shutdown is still a medium-term risk, the environmental impact statement ("EIS") isn't due to March of 2022, and would likely be appealed. Meantime, DAPL stays open.
  • That being the case, the PSXP thesis now switches to the opening up of the US economy and what I call the 'Vacation Nation' theme.
  • The 'Vacation Nation' theme is built on the successful roll-out of the vaccines, significantly dropping covid-19 infection and death rates, and resulting gasoline demand that has come roaring back.

Hess Will Report The Newest EN-VP And R-Wells In Alkali Creek This Next Week -- June 6, 2021

Hess is starting to report some new EN-VP and R-wells in Alkali Creek. These wells are tracked here.

Four four-well pads = a 16-well pad:

The graphic:

 NW:

  • 33732, 2,078, Hess, EN-VP...H-12, Alkali Creek, t5/18; cum 433K 4/21;
  • 33731, 1,631, Hess, EN-VP...H-11, Alkali Creek, t5/18; cum 134K 1/20; sporadic after 1/20;
  • 33730, 2,056, Hess, EN-VP...H-10, Alkali Creek, t5/18; cum 328K 4/21;
  • 33729, AB/1,506, Hess, EN-VP...H-9, Alkali Creek, t5/18; cum 148K 1/20;


NE:

  • 28916, IA/1,230, Hess, EN-VP...H-4, Alkali Creek, t3/15; cum 231K 1/21; sporadic since then;
  • 28915, 1,194, Hess, EN-VP...H-3, Alkali Creek, t3/15; cum 201K 4/21;
  • 28914, 1,647, Hess, EN-VP...H-2, Alkali Creek, t3/15; cum 178K 3/21;
  • 28913 1,711, Hess, EN-VP...H-1, Alkali Creek, t2/15; cum 298K 4/21;

SW (newest of the four pads):

  • 36851, conf, Hess, EN-VP ..H-1, Alkali Creek, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 130K 4/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20212018430463
3-20212168229879
2-20212517732277
1-20213886740812
12-2020217556773
  • 36850, conf, Hess, EN-VP ..H-15, Alkali Creek, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 130K 4/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20211659021739
3-20211711222162
2-20212335630779
1-20213744938288
12-2020313252022
  • 36849, conf, Hess, EN-VP ..H-14, Alkali Creek, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 120K 4/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20211595030764
3-20211654629356
2-20212011631526
1-20213121942746
12-20203847529619
  • 36848, conf, Hess, EN-VP ..H-13 Alkali Creek, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 105K 4/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20211509920188
3-20211485817321
2-20211619119305
1-20212409329988
12-20202947529324

SE:

  • 31283, 1,421, Hess, EN-VP ..H-8 Alkali Creek, t11/16; cum 316K 4/21;
  • 31282, 1,346, Hess, EN-VP ..H-7 Alkali Creek, t11/16; cum 244K 4/21;
  • 31281, 746, Hess, EN-VP ..H-6 Alkali Creek, t11/16; cum 271K 4/21;
  • 31280, 1,612, Hess, EN-VP ..H-5 Alkali Creek, t10/16; cum 273K 4/21;

The Oasis Thelen Wells

The Oasis Thelen wells:

37018, 481, Oasis, Thelen Federal 5397 44-34 14TX, t1/21; cum 72K 5/21; fracked 11/30/20 - 12/8/20; either FracFocus is in error; has not received the frack data; or something is really, really strange; cum 94K 7/21;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2021281208112081210813923838881357
BAKKEN4-20213016826168262765753601526011000
BAKKEN3-20213119371193711582455723542551468
BAKKEN2-20212813776137761316936263347801483
BAKKEN1-20212010077100771086826814253031511
  • 36547, 641, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 3TX, Three Forks, section line well; t7/20; cum 136K 4/20; from the NDIC, 28 stages; 4.5 million lbs proppants; 289,576 bbls water; FracFocus: fracked 3/2/20 - 3/22/20;  12.7 million gallons of water; 95.2% water by mass; ratio works out to 44 gallons to bbl water; cum 156K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213093589367177325224951195882
BAKKEN3-20213112945129092143452027492892561
BAKKEN2-2021143425343754011364713229339
BAKKEN1-2021312098921039239007571674630909
BAKKEN12-202031348013479128977101126988772072
BAKKEN11-20201478387809116252063520060490
BAKKEN10-20203127436276752970876317742161923
BAKKEN9-202021327106594126832333339
BAKKEN8-2020315562003372140733844218
BAKKEN7-2020301622715780199534208641786173
  • 36548, 783, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, t7/20; cum 158K 4/20; fracked 3/2/20 - 3/20/20; FracFocus: 14.8 million gallons of water; 92.4% water by mass; NDIC: 345,119 gallons (sic); 8.79 million lbs proppant; ratio works out to 43 gallons/bbl; cum 189K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20212913546135591952273409721351108
BAKKEN3-20213118249182112465460340575142648
BAKKEN2-2021282095320957264257449473502832
BAKKEN1-20213127734277453400896985955891219
BAKKEN12-20203116199162013844345054433971480
BAKKEN11-20201447304727161041297812564328
BAKKEN10-20203133425338813186184912825742161
BAKKEN9-202022456197113745184513834
BAKKEN8-2020311671700272840293801216
BAKKEN7-2020301935518822196314231042013178
  • 36549, 248, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 5T, Three Forks; t12/20; cum 72K 4/20; cum 98K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20212666506668110942981029142519
BAKKEN3-20213113177131511921947574453722024
BAKKEN2-2021281759917602223916516764272735
BAKKEN1-2021312208522093297856601365064771
BAKKEN12-2020261278212759233943705536171752
  • 37623, loc/NC-->conf (noted 7/21), Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 6B, Banks, producing, 31K 7/21;
  • 37440, loc/NC-->conf (noted 7/21), Oasis, Wold 5297 11-6 2B, Banks, producing, 27K 7/21;
  • 36553, 335, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 8T, first production, 12/20; t1/21; cum 75K 4/21; cum 115K 7/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20212137266486
3-20212251550262
2-202121171209
1-202115455185
12-20201107
  • 36552, conf, Oasis, Thesen 5297 12-6 76B, Banks, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 107K 4/21; 170K 7/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20212525381086
3-20212775669257
2-20212604078451
1-20212619178649
12-2020564613772
  • 36551, 486, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T, Banks, t12/20; cum 78K 4/21; cum 113K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021301499214998252853941838751495
BAKKEN3-20213117589175543082642658407541727
BAKKEN2-2021282144721443399326712766211755
BAKKEN1-2021311709017090409915287852053647
BAKKEN12-20202265196507210011447814087288
  • 18655, 635, Oasis, Rolfsrud 7-6H, Banks, t7/10; cum 234K 4/21; huge jump in production, from 800 bbls/month to 8,000 bbls/ month, 10/20; cum 241K 7/21;
BAKKEN10-202030818778891144527413234923621
BAKKEN9-20203060536269143751976418751713
BAKKEN8-202031552055391381015702142651127
BAKKEN7-2020315290513555014461141510
BAKKEN6-20203050424942854516835137772758
BAKKEN5-2020162344201211120734160111170
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20204482401202412010
BAKKEN1-202031666512435239520850

The graphic:


 

Bakken 101: Whole Pads At A Time Now Coming Off The Confidential List -- June 6, 2021

Many years when first talking about the Bakken and the "Eco-Pads" introduced by Harold Hamm, I mentioned that at some point in time instead of seeing a single well in a given drilling unit come off the confidential list at any given time, we would start seeing four wells coming off the confidential list in the same week, and perhaps as many as eight or even more -- all from the same pad. 

This has been going on for quite some time, perhaps the last year or so, but it will soon become the norm for the larger operators in the Bakken like CLR, MRO, and Oasis.

This is a great example. Most of the wells "to the north" are coming off the confidentia list this next week, and noting that the parent well "to the south" has just come off line, it appears those wells "to the south" will start coming off the confidential list within the next few month. Based on the data for the wells "to the north" it looks like one can expect six to seven months from now.

To the north (the Copeland pad is tracked here):

  • 37673, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Herman USA 24-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;
  • 37674, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Hartson USA 24-31H, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;
  • 37675, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Etherington USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;
  • 37676, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Copeland USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;
  • 37677, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;

Parent well, to the north:

  • 17771, IA/585, MRO, Jay Sandstrom USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, t3/09; cum 542K 10/20; off line 11/20 remains off line 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-202100880000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-2020410919017344207110
BAKKEN10-20202444447813516201186276
BAKKEN9-20203014661468661479145270
BAKKEN8-202031208020689466269591845
BAKKEN7-20202214571430636413225741352
BAKKEN6-2020291743172980354004914214

To the south (link here):

  • 37770, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Mabel USA 21-6TFH, Reunion Bay
  • 37771, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Plenty Horns USA 31-6H, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;
  • 37772, conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Little Owl USA 31-6TFH, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;
  • 37773 conf-->drl/NC, MRO,  Perry USA 41-6TFH, Renion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;
  • 37774 conf-->drl/NC, MRO, Odell USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay, no production, but new status, 6/21;

Parent well to the south:

  • 18880, 129, MRO,Everett Fisher USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay, t7/10; cum 396K 3/21; went off line 3/21; remains off line 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-2021231070142231915961178223
BAKKEN2-2021281431134533721581624286
BAKKEN1-2021291438147032321851262673
BAKKEN12-2020301308125126616841152283
BAKKEN11-2020301526160833422691798207
BAKKEN10-2020251102106422816821308175
BAKKEN9-2020301465141731924711603606
BAKKEN8-2020311524152634925551747529
BAKKEN7-2020221230118726120017911008
BAKKEN6-202029143114003322326202937


The graphics:


Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 6, 2021

 The wells:

  • 37772, conf,  MRO, Little Owl USA 31-6TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 37397, conf, CLR, Rodney 10-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 37771, conf, MRO, Plenty Horns USA 31-6H, Reunion Bay, 
  • 37483, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1A TFH, Elidah, no production data,
  • 36934, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 43-34 10B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20212985388389
3-20213260475332
2-20213171791905
1-20211826157218
12-20202943
  • 37770, conf, MRO, Mabel USA 21-6TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 37398, conf, CLR, Rodney 9-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 36849, conf, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-13, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20211595030764
3-20211654629356
2-20212011631526
1-20213121942746
12-20203847529619
  • 37673, conf, MRO, Herman USA 24-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 37674, conf, MRO, Hartson USA 24-31H, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37675, conf,  MRO, Etherington USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37379, conf,  CLR, Rodney 8-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 36848, conf,  Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-13, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20211509920188
3-20211485817321
2-20211619119305
1-20212409329988
12-20202947529324
  • 37676, conf, MRO, Copeland USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 36553, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 8T, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20212137266486
3-20212251550262
2-202121171209
1-202115455185
12-20201107
  • 37830, conf, WPX, Dakota 1-36HUL, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20213116123361
  • 37677, conf, MRO, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37378, conf, CLR, Rodney 7-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 36552, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 7B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20212525381086
3-20212775669257
2-20212604078451
1-20212619178649
12-2020564613772
  • 37250, conf, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213026138261622762524432225760
BAKKEN3-202131275182748539267234132136290
BAKKEN2-20212823369235533988324338181154551
BAKKEN1-20213131348311295067730060220875761
BAKKEN12-20202636013357096415824592198832262
BAKKEN11-2020200447000
  • 37377, conf,  CLR, Rodney 6-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 36551, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021301499214998252853941838751495
BAKKEN3-20213117589175543082642658407541727
BAKKEN2-2021282144721443399326712766211755
BAKKEN1-2021311709017090409915287852053647
BAKKEN12-20202265196507210011447814087288