Friday, January 4, 2019

Active Rigs Falling Quickly In The Bakken As Winter Sets In; Any Doubt MRO Is The Operator Of The Year 2018 -- See Today's Results -- January 4, 2019

Most interesting item in that banner: China and US looking to end the trade war. Apple, most likely, sent shock waves through the Chinese government. The country cannot afford to have millions unemployed, especially when so many are young men. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs63544059171

Nine new permits:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Fields: East Fork (Williams); Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for a 6-well Chloe pad in 20-156-99; CLR also has permits for a 3-well Jamestown Federal pad in 17-152-99;
Two permits renewed:
  • BR: one Ole permit in McKenzie County
  • Whiting: one Whiting permit in McKenzie County
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34203, 3,137, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-7, Blue Buttes, t--; cum --; #16957; #18271;
  • 34202, 3,050, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-6, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --; #16957; #18271;
  • 34201, 3,153, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-5, Blue Buttes, t11/18; cum 12K over 6 days -- are you kidding? extrapolates to 59K over 30 days; #16957; #18271;
  • 34732, 2,008, CLR, Pasadena 8X-11H1, Banks, t11/18; cum 30K over 23 days;
  • 34668, 6,640, MRO, Drake 44-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 41K over 20 days which extrapolates to 62K over 30 days; #17999; #17374;
  • 34666, 6,012, MRO, Northrop 34-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 34K over 23 days;
    #17999; #17374;
  • 34892, 5,851, MRO, Gloria 24-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 57K over 38 days; #17999; #17374;
  • 34667, 5,713, MRO, Veddy 44-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 90K over 38 days --
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 29690, 1,745, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 7K over 8 days; #29688, #29690, #29689, #29687;

T+59 -- January 4, 2019

Notes From All Over

AGW: wow, if this is AGW -- bring it on. A great day today here in north Texas, and tomorrow's forecast to be 70 degrees; loving every minute of it. Just think, without AGW, it would be 69.75 degrees. 

Syria: This is pretty funny. The tea leaves suggest the mainstream media and leaders around the world agree with Trump's decision to pull the US out of Syria. Even Pocahontas agrees it was the right thing to do. General Mattis is starting to look a bit like a spoiled general officer who did not get his way.

SecDef? An interesting choice is making the rounds.

National emergency: I wonder what judge would rule against a president declaring a national emergency to close the border/build the wall? And if so, how the US Supreme Court would rule? Makes one wonder if a governor can unilaterally declare, on a whim, an emergency and request federal aid?

War Powers Act? I bet there are a dozen White House lawyers studying that act as well as the US Constitution. What if the government says the US is being attacked by organized foreign agencies? It's well known the hordes are being organized and paid. From wiki: it is generally agreed that the commander-in-chief role gives the President power to repel attacks against the United States. What constitutes an "attack"?

Redundant: that's the British term for non-essential personnel working for non-essential bureaucracies. Makes one wonder why they are on the payroll in the first place. So far, we've got trash in some national parks and that's about it. What's the budget for the non-essential bureaucracies?

Best line of the day: after Occasional-Cortex posts video of her dancing, Scott Adams asks when Beto in  a V-neck sweater will share his own dancing video but then, most cleverly, Scott Adams says Elizabeth Warner will risk rain if she dances. If you miss the joke, let me know. 

Word for the Day


Quick! Without looking it up, guess the definition (unless, of course, you are from Albuquerque and then you already know the answer). 

Caparison Guitars here.

The Literary Page

Wow, wow wow ... the second of two volumes, The Letters of Sylvia Plath, Vol 2: 1956 - 1963, edited by Peter K. Steinberg and Karen V. Kukil, c. 2018, is now available in the local library. Wow. The foreword is by Sylvia's daughter, Frieda Hughes, s/2018.

From the "feel" of the book, I think I am the first to one to have touched this particular book, except, of course, for the librarian and a few others along the supply chain.

The preface, of course, is by the editors, also s/2018.

The introduction is fourteen pages long. The letters themselves take up 969 tightly-printed pages. The index is a full 55 pages in small pitch.

Most precious, perhaps, are the mother-baby pictures of Sylvia and Frieda.

There are two photos which include Ted Hughes. Ted always reminds me of Hugh Hefner for some reason. Hughes seems to have been very, very tall; I doubt Hefner was quite that tall.

Volume 1 in this two-volume set: 1940 - 1956, early days of her marriage.

Volume II: 1956 - 1963. The first letter was written the day after Plath's twenty-fourth birthday, 27 October 1956; the last letter was dated 4 February 1963, a week before Plath's death at the age of 30 ,about seven years of letters, numbering 575, to 108 recipients.

There are sixteen letters written to Ted Hughes shortly before their marriage and honeymoon, while fourteen later letters to her psychiatrist chart the disintegration of that marriage in "harrowing detail," according to the editors.

Later: I've read the introduction, preface, foreword; the chronology, etc. I've read many of the letters, skimmed through the rest. I read, perhaps, the most important of her letters to her psychiatrist when her marriage was dissolving. I continued to read the letters but as I got closer to the end of 1962, I could not read any more. I did not read her last letters; not of her letters in late 1962 or any of her letters in 1963. She died February 11, 1963.

The British winter of 1963 was the coldest on record up to that time.  JFK would be assassinated later that year.

Re-Balancing? Ain't Gonna Happen At This Rate -- January 4, 2019

Link here. EIA data --
  • US crude oil inventories: unchanged from previous week
  • US crude oil inventories: 441.4 million bbls
  • refinery operating capacity jumped to 97.2%
  • from the report: "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, up by 1.6% from the same period last year."
  • distillate fuel supplied was up almost 4% compared to last year
  • jet fuel production, interestingly, slumped; down over 12% compared to same four-week period last year
  • gasoline production slightly below the 10-million-barrel threshold 
  • distillate production slightly above the 5-million-barrel threshold
  • all things being equal, WTI should have remained unchanged after the report
  • so let's see what happened: up a dollar and now trading slightly above $48
  • maybe that's why NOG jumped today
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, relationship decisions based on anything you read at this blog or what you think you may have read at this blog.


Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019 12:00 AM
Never at this rate

Natural gas fill-rate/withdrawal: link here.

T+59 -- January 4, 2019

From an earlier note:
Re-posting: LSD. Story here. Silicon Valley (?) getting ready to do "formal"testing. We talked about this earlier this year.

Three-page essay in the current issue of The London Review of Books, by Mike Jay, in his review of two new books:
  • How to Change Your Mind: The New Science of Psychedelics, Michael Pollan, May, 2018
  • The Science and the Story of the Drugs That Changed Our Minds, Lauren Slater, February, 2018
My hunch: marijuana is soooo yesterday.
Now this, today, from NBCNewYork:
In the past three years, Google searches for the term “microdosing” have tripled, and books and articles on the subject are exploding.
Microdosing is described as taking an imperceptible dose of an illegal psychedelic drug, typically LSD, MDMA or Psilocybin, more commonly known as magic mushrooms. It’s a fraction – roughly a tenth -- of a full hallucinogenic dose that would cause a high.
"It’s just been a constant upward trend, constantly on the rise," said a drug dealer who spoke with News 4 New York's I-Team on the condition of anonymity. 
The dealer creates "microdoses" by taking psilocybin or "magic" mushrooms, grinding them to a powder and pressing them into pills that are a fraction of a full hallucinogenic dose. He said that it’s a growing group of people turning to street drugs and that they are looking for anything but a high.
As noted back on September 29, 2018, marijuana is soooo yesterday. With the Dems back in control of the US House we might see some movement in the micro-dosing story -- if they weren't so tied up with impeachment.

Pretty Blue Eyes, Steve Lawrence
Pet Peeve
Middle-aged "rich" women (age 23 - 43 years old) coming into Starbucks with ripped jeans. That was so yesterday. Call me sexist. Whatever. Actually, I don't see similar male attire any more.

The Book Page

I'm only on page 59 of 109 East Palace: Robert Oppenheimer And The Secret City Of Los Alamos, Jennet Conant, c. 2005, but it's a winner of a book. 

If you are at all interested in the Manhattan Project and have not read this book, I highly recommend it.   

My notes, in progress, are at this post. I generally take notes on any book I read for the first few chapters, and then leave it at that.

A Huge Shout Out To Readers -- January 4, 2019

Pardon the interruption.

I've noticed a few more typographical errors than usual (spelling errors) -- thank you for not sending me those typos -- if I find them I will correct them, but there's no need to report them unless they make a huge difference.

One of my worse spelling errors: "now" for "not" as in:
"They are now doing something" when it should be "They are not doing something."
In a case like that, I need to know to correct it.

On the other hand, if I make "factual" errors, that's a different story. Let me know if I've made a factual error -- it's sometimes hard to tell "factual" data from my opinions. Factual errors are generally of two types: a broken/"wrong" link; or an arithmetic error. 

Other than that, things seem to be going well with the blog. At least for me. 

Again, this is not an investment site. I blog about the Bakken to help me better understand it. I've learned a lot from the readers and greatly appreciate comments that help explain the Bakken. I generally do not get into other discussions or post comments unrelated to the Bakken. 

Impact Of Neighboring Fracks -- January 4, 2019

Here we go again, with another example, another nail in the Hubbert coffin.

Put Another Log On The Fire, Tompall Glaser

This well was reported today:
  • 33588, 378, Oasis, Muri 5298 14-28 9T, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, Banks, t7/18; cum 84K 11/18;  #18651, #18980 -- 
Two neighboring wells to follow: one remains off line; the other is back on line --
  • 18651, 462, Oasis, Berquist 34-27H, 33-053-03105, Banks, t8/10; cum 377K 11/18;
Production after initial frack more than eight years ago, followed by the dreaded Bakken decline:


So, how is this well doing now, eight years later? According to FracFocus, this well was not re-fracked. I did not check the sundry forms at the NDIC. One well like this will not move the needle, but tens of thousands over 35 years certainly will. It didn't cost Oasis a dime to see this increased production. Well, I'm sure there were some associated costs ... whatever.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Something To Talk About, T+59 -- January 4, 2019

I'm posting this for newbies, for the PeakOil folks, and for the peakoilbarrel folks. It should give the latter two something to talk about.

Something To Talk About, Bonnie Raitt

Okay, here we go.

Look at this well that Oasis reported today:
  • 33754, 1,082, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 34-27 7B, 50 stages, 10 million lbs, Willow Creek, t7/18; cum 105K 11/18; 
A neighboring well was #21903:
  • 21903, 873, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 41-26H, API - 33-105-02455, Willow Creek, t5/12; cum 300K 11/18 -- production back in 2012 after first frack:

According to FracFocus, this well was not re-fracked. How is this well doing now?

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

One or two wells like this won't move the needle, but tens of thousands of Bakken wells that will do this -- that will give folks something to talk about.

Alaska Oil Production

EIA historical data here.

Winner Of The 2018 Geico Rock Award Announced -- January 4, 2019

These were the nominees for the Geico Rock Award for 2018:
Algore, nominee for life-time award

Rick Newman, senior columnist, Yahoo!Finance: gives the Trump economy a B -- after the Trump economy breaks almost every US economy record on jobs, wages, satisfaction, GDP, etc. 

Francisco Toro of The Washington Post: the collapse of Venezuela proves "nothing" about socialism.

Analyst / investment advisor Bernstein raises AAPL target from $100 to $190 on day that Apple surges 5%, up $10, hitting all-time high, trading at over $200/share. 

WSJ reported Rebecca Elliott: on July 30, 2018, noted that drillers in west Texas were pumping so much oil and gas that pipelines/takeaway considered more than adequate just a few years ago now are overwhelmed. Anyone paying attention were aware of this a year ago?

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde. Link here. MF revises up global growth forecast helped by Trump tax cuts. Did hell just freeze over? With regard to taxes and growth, one wonders if IMF managing director Christine Lagarde needs to be nominated for the 2018 Geico Rock Award. By the way, it appears the IMF is doing what it can to keep revised growth forecast below 4%. The estimates depend on input/data and analysts can put whatever they want into the formula; clearly it's in the IMF's interests to keep estimates below 4%. January 22, 2018. [Later: US GDP surged 4.1% in first estimate of 2Q18 GDP growth.]

AEMO: coal will keep the price of electricity down.

Nick Cunningham: Venezuela.

Robert Rapier: Venezuela.

US Navy: global warming.
The votes are in and it's Robert Rapier based on his astute analysis of Venezuela.

The "Rules Committee" voted unanimously to hold off on any life-time awards. The "Awards Committee" reminds us that the prize for the annual award is a lifetime subscription to the "MillionDollarWay" blog. It should be noted that, in keeping in the spirit of the Geico Rock Award, rules and awards can be changed retroactively.

This Is Worth A Stand-Alone Post -- January 4, 2019

See this post also.

The Jobs Report Was Huge -- January 4, 2019

See this note also

When I saw the numbers, this was my unedited, not ready-for-prime-time e-mail note to a reader:
Supports my theory that movers and shakers around the world are purposely trying to push the US into a recession to destroy Trump. I don't see any data to suggest US economy is doing poorly -- at least to the extent that the stock market is imploding.
The New Time Times said that before the data was released that "if the month's figure reaches or exceeds the expectation of 180,000, it would be a solid cap to a year of robust hiring."

Link at The New York Times.

I've Never Seen "Whopping" Used In Mainstream Media To Report US Jobs -- January 4, 2019

Jobs: link here.

I tracked "jobs numbers" for several years. I then quit. I "understood" the methodology and the data and I got bored with the numbers. But if interested, one can start here. I provided what I called the "magic numbers" when I posted the "jobs report" the first time, and then updated it when the mainstream media moved the goalposts when Trump was elected president. Before the goalposts were moved, the magic numbers were defined by the mainstream press as:
First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)
New jobs: 200,000 (however, now I see that the goal posts have been moved to 120,000) --  
Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.
The Magic Numbers (change with Trump administration -- see this post)
First time claims, unemployment benefits: 275,000 (> 250,000: economic stagnation)
New jobs: 150,000 (< 150,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.
By clicking on this tag, "jobs," one can see how a "whopping 312,000 jobs" compares with data points from the past.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, January 4, 2019:
  • 33754, 1,082, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 34-27 7B, 50 stages, 10 million lbs, Willow Creek, t7/18; cum 105K 11/18; #21903 -- see this post.
  • 33664, SI/NC, MRO, Bears Arm USA 41-2H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 33588, 378, Oasis, Muri 5298 14-28 9T, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, Banks, t7/18; cum 84K 11/18;  #18651, #18980 --
Active rigs:

Active Rigs64544059171

RBN Energy: south Texas feedgas demand ramping up with Corpus Christi LNG, part 3.
Feedgas demand for U.S. LNG exports has accelerated in recent months with the addition of new liquefaction and upstream pipeline capacity. The latest export facility contributing to the winter surge in feedgas flows is Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) in South Texas — the first greenfield LNG export terminal in the Lower 48 and the first such terminal, greenfield or otherwise, in Texas. Train 1 has yet to be commercialized, but already it’s added 0.5 Bcf/d of gas demand to the Texas market through December. The facility sources its gas via a number of legacy interstate and Texas intrastate pipelines, many of which have undergone reversals and expansions in order to serve LNG terminals but also another competing export market: Mexico. How will CCL change gas flows in South Texas? Today, we provide an update of feedgas flows to Corpus Christi, including a closer look at the upstream pipeline routes facilitating those flows.
This is Part 3 in our blog series examining recent changes in U.S. LNG export demand and the pipeline flows feeding it — a subject we cover comprehensively on a weekly basis. First, we started with the latest on Cheniere’s Sabine Pass Liquefaction terminal (SPL) in Cameron Parish, LA, where the start-up activities for Train 5, along with the full in-service of a new feedgas route via Kinder Morgan Louisiana Pipeline’s Sabine Pass Expansion project, have boosted feedgas flows to well over 3 Bcf/d in recent weeks. Then, we shifted our focus to Dominion’s Cove Point LNG export facility in Maryland, where the in-service of two pipeline expansions — Williams/Transco’s Atlantic Sunrise and TransCanada/Columbia Gas Group’s WB Xpress — has improved supply connectivity, with daily volumes consistently near or at capacity for the first time since the single-train facility began producing LNG.