Saturday, September 25, 2021

Amtrak Derails Near Joplin, MT, Earlier This Evening -- September 25, 2021

147 passengers on the train.

About 50 were injured; at least three dead. 

Joplin is about midway between Havre to the east and Shelby to the west. On the east side of the Rockies; on the flat plains of Montana.

The train would have been moving at 70 mph to 80 mph, one would assume.

Photo shows almost exact location, East Buelow, MT: https://www.the-sun.com/news/3734525/amtrak-train-derails-in-montana-trapped/

Fact (?):  near the East Buelow switch.

Thought: a malfunctioning switch? Not fully open / closed? Misaligned?

******************
Memories: The Broadsheets

Newspapers: it is amazing to see how incredible the British newspapers are ...

From wiki:

UK newspapers can generally be split into two distinct categories: the more serious and intellectual newspapers, usually referred to as the broadsheets, and sometimes known collectively as 'the quality press', and others, generally known as tabloids, and collectively as 'the popular press', which have tended to focus ...
The best "immediate" reporting on the remote -- very, very remote -- Montana Amtrak derailment was provided by The Sun, a British tabloid, and The Daily Mail, a British up-scale tabloid, one of which, by the way quoted Al Jazeera who was also among the first to report on the derailment. 
 
Reporting from local, regional, and US national press was embarrassingly poor. As usual. 
 
Photos of the derailment posted by local, regional, and US national press in the first two hours after the derailment: zero. Or thereabouts.

Meanwhile, The Sun, as is typical, had a full page (and more) photo spread of the derailment.

Years ago, I spent a lot of time at a remote military-intelligence complex in northern England, one of the best assignments ever given Athe time, when first notified of another overseas assignment, wow, was I upset. I was tired of traveling and being away from home.

Over time, it became the best assignment ever for personal, not professional reasons, and I came closer than ever to leaving everything, dropping off the grid, and retiring in northern England. 

One of the highlights of that extended tour were the Sunday mornings. I would wake up early, and run down the hill -- literally run down the hill -- to the little mom-and-pop convenience store and buy eggs and real bacon and three Sunday newspapers. They would have been The Daily Mail, The [London] Guardian, and The [London] Times

I don't recall but perhaps I spent $10 for everything -- the eggs, the bacon, and the newspapers. 

On Saturdays I would hike the northern English countryside, leaving about 8:00 a.m. and returning about twelve hours later. I generally had to pack whatever I needed to eat along the way; there weren't many tea shops where I would be hiking.

So on Sundays, I relaxed, reading the newspapers until about 1:00 p.m. when I go back out hiking. 

Two days earlier, on Fridays, I would attend Friday nigh "evensong" -- church service in a nearby cathedral. I don't recall attending a religious service in a church, it was always in a cathedral and it was a most awesome experience. But I do recall, hiking well after dark, starting about 10:00 p.m. and then entering a local church about 11:00 p.m. and listening to religious music (think Te Deum) by Arvo Pärt. I have no less than twenty of his CDs and they remain a prize collection of mine. For me, Arvo Pärt is to religious music what the Beatles were to music.

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- The Sports Page -- September 25, 2021

Before we get to sports:

  • I've never seen it so busy -- the traffic, the shops
  • I did a bit of bicycling today and drove middle granddaughter to an outing with friends
  • saw huge amount of traffic
  • this part of Texas has moved on

Texas football:

  • Texas: 70
  • Texas Tech: 35
  • are you kidding me?

Clemson football:

  • say what?
  • they lose by two touchdowns to NC State?
  • in overtime

Ryder Cup:

  • insurmountable lead for the US
  • 11 - 5
  • US needs 14.5 points to re-take the Cup
  • Europe needs 14 points to keep the Cup
  • tomorrow: "every man for himself" -- no more team playing per se

But for now! NASCAR Xfinity series:

  • Las Vegas
  • 93°F
  • and, of course, no precipitation
  • winner: a "substitute" driver 

Random Look At A Lot Of CLR Activity In Elm Tree -- September 25, 2021

This page won't be updated. CLR's Angus and Angus Federal wells are tracked elsewhere.

These are the CLR Angus and Angus Federal wells:

The wells:

  • 23493, Simmental Federal well on same pad as some Angus wells; 568, CLR, Simmental Federal 4-16H, t6/13; cum 332K 3/20; offline for about half the month, 4/19; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 355K 5/21;
  • 23495, Simmental Federal well on same pad as some Angus wells; 240, CLR, Simmental Federal 3-16H, t6/13; cum 363K 3/20; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 378K 5/21;
  • 23496, 300, CLR, Angus Federal 4-9H, 30 stages, 2.8 million lbs, 4 sections, t5/13; cum 379K 3/20; cum 437K 7/21;
  • 23494, 360, CLR, Angus Federal 5-9H, 30 stages, 2.7 million lbs, 4 sections, t6/13; cum 475K 3/20; cum 509K 7/21;
  • 20805, 487, CLR, Angus 3-9H, Three Forks, 28 stages, 2.5 million lbs, t2/13; cum 359K 3/20; subtle jump in production, 4/19; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 380K 5/21;
  • 20804, 329, CLR, Angus 1-9H, 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs, t2/13; cum 336K 3/20; offline as of 12/18; still offline 4/19; back on line as of 5/19; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 352K 5/21;
  • 24473, 598, CLR, Angus 2-9H2, Three Forks, 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs, t2/13; cum 393K 3/20; perhaps a slight bump in production; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 417K 5/21;
  • 33965, 2,746, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Creek, 26,729 feet; producing as of 5/19; t9/19; cum 210K 3/20; see this post; cum 336K 7/21;

Lots of information there. It's easy to miss that several wells were taken off line June, 2021, and remain off line in July, 2021, most recent month for which we have data.

These wells (also posted above) are the ones off line:

  • 23493, Simmental Federal well on same pad as some Angus wells; 568, CLR, Simmental Federal 4-16H, t6/13; cum 332K 3/20; offline for about half the month, 4/19; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 355K 5/21;
  • 23495, Simmental Federal well on same pad as some Angus wells; 240, CLR, Simmental Federal 3-16H, t6/13; cum 363K 3/20; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 378K 5/21;
  • 20805, 487, CLR, Angus 3-9H, Three Forks, 28 stages, 2.5 million lbs, t2/13; cum 359K 3/20; subtle jump in production, 4/19; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 380K 5/21;
  • 20804, 329, CLR, Angus 1-9H, 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs, t2/13; cum 336K 3/20; offline as of 12/18; still offline 4/19; back on line as of 5/19; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 352K 5/21;
  • 24473, 598, CLR, Angus 2-9H2, Three Forks, 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs, t2/13; cum 393K 3/20; perhaps a slight bump in production; off line 6/21; remains off line 7/21; cum 417K 5/21;

Because the NDIC is not updating their scout tickets and the GIS map it's hard to sort out what's going on. CLR has four wells to the east of these wells on confidential which CLR might be fracking and that might explain why the CLR Angus wells (and Simmental Federal wells) above are off line.

The CLR wells on confidential just to the east of the Angus and Simmental Federal wells:

  • 37904, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 3-10H2, Elm Tree,
  • 37903, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 4-10H, Elm Tree,
  • 37902, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 5-10H1, Elm Tree,
  • 37901, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 6-10H, Elm Tree, 

And for the archives, just another pad a mile or so to the southeast:

  • 37905, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 7-10H2, Elm Tree,
  • 37906, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 8-10H, Elm Tree,
  • 37907, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 9-10H1, Elm Tree,
  • 37908, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 10-10H, Elm Tree,
  • 37909, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 11-10H2, Elm Tree,
  • 37910, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 12-10H, Elm Tree,
  • 37911, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 13-10H, Elm Tree,
  • 37912, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 14-10H2, Elm Tree,
  • 37913 conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 15-10H, Elm Tree,

Something You Don't See Often In The Bakken -- A Well On Confidential For Two Years -- September 25, 2021

NDIC File No: 36392     API No: 33-061-04478-00-00     CTB No: 217072
Well Type: ON CONFIDENTIAL STATUS
Location: LOT4 5-152-91     Footages: 254 FNL 515 FWL     Latitude: 48.022387     Longitude: -102.362921
Current Operator: WHITING OIL AND GAS CORPORATION
Current Well Name: STENSETH TRUST 11-5HU
    Field: SANISH
Monthly Sales Data:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-202131936809
6-202136046631
5-202130486268
4-202144026939
3-202140789162
2-202141208612
1-202147479901
12-202049209619
11-202049299799
10-2020541010225
9-202056939857
8-2020641710647
7-2020709511375
6-2020755110767
5-2020950711906
4-20201032712959
3-20201221214845
2-20201322313731
1-20201677211791
12-2019201626309
11-2019220570
10-2019178010
9-20192860

Several Pads Updated -- September 25, 2021

Marathon starting to report these wells, link here. No production data, but status of wells has changed. 

WPX: production for these wells for the past three months. Link here

Enerplus' Patriot pad updated. Link here

Whiting's Periot wells northeast of Williston updated. Link here. Not much new.

BR Raider wells in Twin Valley updated. Link here. Graphic updated; incredible wells; incredible field.

BR Tailgunner pad in North Fork. Link here

The Zavanna Panther wells updated. Link here

Slawson's Periscope wells updated. Link here

CLR's Sakakawea Federal wells updated. Monster wells. Link here.

CLR's Angus and Angus Federal wells updated. Link here

CLR activity in Elm Tree. Link here.

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 25, 2021

Then: just, equitable, affordable --> 

Now: forced priorities. 

Covid-19:

  • forced priorities: lockdowns, social distancing, masks, emergency use authorization vaccinations, no antibiotic alternatives.

Renewable energy:

  • forced priorities: back to gasoline lines; unaffordable transportation; lack of heating oil for winter; summer grid brownouts.

Still Being Reported As DUCs, But Incredible Wells -- Production Now Being Reported -- WPX -- Spotted Horn -- Native Americans Are Celebrating -- Hope They Don't Shut Down The DAPL -- September 25, 2021

The wells:

  • 37324, conf-->drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL, Antelope, this is one of the best oil fields in the Bakken; still no change in well status; remains a DUC, but great production numbers:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-20213123034231841782724300240070
SANISH6-20213030506305882741638435346220
SANISH5-20212035961357113201641754375410
  • 37232, conf-->drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Spotted Horn, well status has not change; still a DUC, but incredible production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213132082322431815434537342290
BAKKEN6-20213057376574963796361099548000
BAKKEN5-20212052530520933678673161674370
  1. 37231, conf-->drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HXL Spotted Horn, well status has not change; still a DUC, but incredible production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213131517317002119535728354090
BAKKEN6-20213060797608744612380795741300
BAKKEN5-2021294970249289378211089931035690
  • 37230, conf-->drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HS, Spotted Horn, well status has not change; still a DUC, but incredible production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213130862310552890632941326110
BAKKEN6-20213062293623325843779254724290
BAKKEN5-20211746047456644920899281942630
  • 23639, 1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, t3/13; cum 388K 7/20; off line 8/20; remains off line 3/21; back on line 5/21; cum 403K 7/21;

Wells of interest to the south:

  • 37308, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC, Spotted Horn, no change in well status, still a DUC, but great production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213147048473643243747895392908450
BAKKEN6-20213048434484623821860090560149147
BAKKEN5-202125938559539401100
  • 37307, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, no change in well status, still a DUC, but great production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202131542965459545620561962080335393
BAKKEN6-20213045961465114317057062457447410
BAKKEN5-202181471713868131254300
  • 37306, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG, Spotted Horn, no production data,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213153271536502704253591482855151
BAKKEN6-20212658150577714208671250653058361
BAKKEN5-20210000000
  • 37305, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no change in well status, still a DUC, but great production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202131477974812840172495662858120985
BAKKEN6-20213050888509194581263797558152611
BAKKEN5-202146275591357132100
  • 37304, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL, Spotted Horn, no change in well status, still a DUC, but great production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213135269355801726343562543402
BAKKEN6-20213041362412761842055509050923
BAKKEN5-2021193971422500

The Enerplus "Winter" Pad Updated -- September 25, 2021

This page will not be updated. These wells are tracked elsewhere. 

Several things to note that a lot of analysts don't understand about the Bakken:

  • no rigs factored into this huge jump in production 10/20;
  • likewise, no rigs factored into another huge jump in production 5/21;
  • operators in the Bakken don't report a single well periodically; they often report an entire pad at one time; the drilling costs were sunk costs as much as two years earlier; note: drilling costs don't include fracking costs; total costs = drilling + completion (fracking)
  • in addition, they control when to "open" the pad
  • a lot like growing / storing / selling wheat

The wells:

  • 35800, 930, Enerplus, Frost 149-93-07A-12H-TF-LL, Mandaree, t10/20; cum 152K 7/21;
  • 35801, 1,588, Enerplus, Hail 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree,  t10/20; cum 183K 7/21;
  • 35802, drl, Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree,  t10/20; cum 192K 7/21;
  • 35803, 1,599, Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree,  t10/20; cum 196K 7/21;
  • 25736, 2,347, Enerplus, Snow .... , t6/15; cum 549K 11/19 -- wow! Only 39 stages; 
  • 25735, 1,773, Enerplus, Rain ..., t6/15; cum 374K 11/19; came off line 11/19; remains off line 3/20; back on line 4/21; cum 382K 7/21;
  • 25738, 1,946, Enerplus, Sun ..., t8/14; cum 408K 3/20; was off line 3/19 - 9/19; small jump in production; cum 433K 7/21;
  • 25737, 1,278, Enerplus, Wind ...., t9/14; cum 360K 3/20; was off line 3/19 - 9/19; huge jump in production; see this post; back on line 5/21; cum 365K 7/21;

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- Procrastinating On A Saturday Morning -- September 25, 2021

First things first: new hot spot in hometown -- Ft Worth, TX -- yes, this is the stockyards

  • this is beyond amazing;
  • Hotel Drover: newest hotel in the Stockyards
  • Mule Alley: a public/private partnership with the City of Fort Worth and Tarrant County
  • for the politically obsessed: 
    • Houston is blue
    • Dallas is purple, leaning blue
    • Ft Worth: red, getting so red, we may start seeing heat signatures; link here;
    • is redder than red, madder? asking for a friend; link here. But, no.

Covid-19: first western country to publicly announce it's time to move on -- NORWAY

  • Norway to end coronavirus-related restrictions today, Saturday, September 25, 2021; link here;
    • Norway: "we need to learn to live with the virus"; link here;
    • looks like US college football fans already have
  • some will push back; tell me it was Sweden, but there's a slightly different nuance going on here;
  • direct to Reuters;

Dividends: announced earlier in the week, didn't see them until today:

  • Lockheed Martin: raises dividend about 8%; says a lot about the impact of leaving Afghanistan;
  • McDonald's: raise dividend about 7%; press release; says a lot about the impact of Covid-19;

UK: after one day of wind, it's back to ...  no wind. Trouble in paradise. 

Could be US-Costco after four years of "green" agenda: link here.

India: peak demand / peak supply -- nope!

  • oil exploration acreage and production in India's northeast will be doubled b 2025;
  • state-owned refinery capacity will be expanded

India: peak demand / peak supply -- nope! This is quite interesting. Years ago I suggested the big story would not be China but India ... maybe ...

  • India state refiners to buy more light crude to boost gasoline output;
  • Indian refiners are gearing up to alter their crude oil import mix in favor of lighter grades that yield more gasoline to meet a surge in demand for motor fuel
  • will buy more crude oil from the US, Africa; less from the Middle East
  • link here, or go direct to Reuters;

Super-cycle:

  • they talk about Apple's super-cycle when it comes to the release of their new iPhones;
  • I'm beginning to "feel" a super-cycle for light, low sulfur crude oil

Hulu: outstanding, again as usual

  • Amazon fire stick: amazing
  • AI suggestion: NBC, NBCS, and NBCGolf have a nasty habit of moving live event from network to network. I was enjoying the Ryder Cup on NBCGolf, when at the top of the hour, NBCGolf switched to the LPGA, and I had to switch to NBC to find the Ryder Cup again. Without question, AI should be able to automatically make the change for me. Google knows what I'm doing and can target ads to me; certainly that same AI can keep tracking of shows I'm watching and move accordingly.
  • now it appears I'm back on NBCGolf; not sure what's going on but at least I'm able to watch the Ryder Cup.
  • I said yesterday: I hate the format. Maybe not; I'm getting used to it. A lot of interesting team strategy. Three "formats." Two versions of team playing Friday and Saturday; every man for himself on Sunday.
  • twelve players on each team; everyone recognizes every US player; my hunch, only diehard golf fans recognize more than for of the non-US players on the European team.
  • and, do we need three teams going forward? US, European, Asian. I guess we prefer even numbers: we could add a fourth, the BLM team.

Ryder Cup:

  • it's a three-day competition
  • it will require the full three days, but the US is so overwhelming that they will come close to putting this tournament away in two days
  • [I may have spoken too soon; mid-morning, it looks like the Europeans could turn this thing around; at the close of Friday, it was 6 -2 (USA in the lead); now, by noon, it's possible it could move to 7 - 5 (USA barely in the lead)

TCM: Mankiewicz keeps making it better and better. Last night, guest John Mellencamp shared stories about Marlon Brando and director Sidney Lumet. I had not seen Mellencamp in a long, long time. I was surprised to learn that Mellancamp calls Bloomington, Indiana, home. I would have thought Hollywood. Wow, that tells you how little I know about the industry. LOL. Link here.

Mellencamp has several homes in his real estate portfolio, primarily around Bloomington, Indiana, including an 8,000-square-foot mansion and several buildings on 35 acres of wooded land on the shore of Lake Monroe. The singer also has a recording studio just outside of Nashville, Indiana, tucked away from the bustle of the city, as well as an oceanfront residence on Daufuskie Island, South Carolina, that he’s owned since 1994.

Last night: the TCM prime time feature was based on a Tennessee Williams play. 

“Has it ever struck you that life is all memory, except for the one present moment that goes by you so quick[ly] you hardly catch it going?”― Tennessee Williams..... as I was getting ready to write our college granddaughter a note, I spied that on social media ...

A musical interlude: Tele Novella, Austin, TX, 2013 -- a Halloween getaway


Trouble in Paradise,
Tele Novella

Poker: I can't recall if I've mentioned this on the blog before but my son-in-law made more money at the blackjack table in Las Vegas in one night than I earned in my full first year with the US Air Force. Both were decades ago. I think he lived on the edge of being dis-invited to the Las Vegas casinos but I don't know the full story. There's probably some hyperbole there. I do know that he abruptly quit going to Las Vegas; no explanation. But it's not hard to connect the dots.

I don't know how much his daughters know about that; that was all well before he was married and had children. 

Hold that thought. 

Last night his middle daughter -- the soccer player -- said her dad was playing poker with the other dads of daughters on her soccer team (Texas - poker - soccer dads, one gets the picture). Olivia said her dad needs to let the other dads win once in awhile. LOL.

One hour, link here. A great movie if one likes that genre -- a bit wacky but beautiful cinematography; vibrant greens.

l'Amelie, Soundtrack