Saturday, February 29, 2020

SIgning Off For The Night -- February 29, 2020

CDC? Does one of the "C's" stand for clowns?

I can't make this stuff up.

I saw this earlier today and couldn't figure out what happened.

The back story: that first coronavirus victim in the US was reported by President Trump to be a female. Later, Washington state authorities said it was a male. Why the discrepancy?

This is the explanation:
At the briefing earlier today, the president said there were 22 patients in the United States who have coronavirus.
"Unfortunately, one person passed away overnight," Trump said, speaking to a case in Washington state.
She was a wonderful woman, a medically high-risk patient in her late 50s. Four others are very ill. Thankfully 15 are either recovered fully or they're well on their way to recovery. And in all cases, they've been let go in their home.”
After Trump spoke, officials in Washington state said the first U.S. coronavirus death was actually a male. Asked about the discrepancy, a senior administration official said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention briefed Trump earlier that the victim was a female.
Later, the CDC director took responsibility on Twitter for "erroneously" identifying the patient as female when briefing the president and vice president.
If the CDC can't get the gender of the highest profile patient in the United States right, how in the world can we trust them with the rest of their announcements. LOL.

Actually, maybe transgender?
why she walked like a woman,
but talked like a man
                   --#nottherealWaltWhitman
Lola, The Kinks

Week 9: February 23, 2020 -- February 29, 2020

Note: the coronavirus story overshadows everything else. It's hard to even put together the top stories of the week with coronavirus affecting everything.

Note: a new "Intellectual Froglegs" episode has been posted.

Best graphic of the week:


Best political story of the week:
Top international non-energy story:
  • Coronavirus.
Top international energy story:
  • Saudi Arabia: all of a sudden, "it" is an existential issue;
Top national non-energy story:
  • Coronavirus.
  • Biden wins big in South Carolina.
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:
  • Land Board clarifies royalty repayment terms; "lookback period" may be shortened;
  • DAPL expansion still pending in Illinois, Iowa;
  • ONEOK to expand NGL pipeline and processing plant;
Wells of interest:
Operators:
Operations:

Natural gas:
Fracking:

Pipelines:
Bakken economy:

Bakken 101:

Commentary:

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- February 29, 2020

Classic movies: wow, TCM is showing some great movies -- "30 days of Academy Awards" is the theme right now -- Tootsie tonight ( a great movie the first time, but I don't care to watch it again) -- I had forgotten that Bill Murray was in the movie. But last night was incredible, one right after the other: Cat on a Hot Tin Room; Rebel Without a Cause; Splendor in the Grass.

I had never seen Cat on a Hot Tin Room before. As a background movie while doing "other stuff," it's an incredibly good movie. Maybe one of the best of this genre. I really enjoyed it.

Rebel Without a Cause: I've seen parts of this movie many, many times, but I don't recall ever sitting through the entire movie. It is simply too painful to watch. The way the James Dean character is treated is more than I can handle.

Splendor in the Grass followed. I have always been curious about this movie -- again, as background -- but after Cat on a HTR and Rebel Without a Cause, I was emotionally drained. I couldn't watch another drama. From wiki:
"Though nothing can bring back the hour / Of splendor in the grass, glory in the flower / We will grieve not; rather find / Strength in what remains behind."
But, wow, Cat on a HTR -- what an incredibly good movie, carried by two extraordinary actors. Unfortunately, knowing the backstory of the Paul Newman character makes the ending impossible and a real fantasy. The question is whether the Elizabeth Taylor character knew.

Coronavirus: sorry to bring this up again, but it just crossed my mind -- is President Xi toast? He has three months to get this under control. I didn't read much of the ZeroHedge article -- just what I posted -- so I don't know if "Tyler Durden" touched on this or not. But we could see huge civil unrest break out in China -- if one doesn't get paid, one doesn't eat. A lot of folks aren't getting paid. And if hoarding has already begun in the US, can you imagine the hoarding in China?

And I have yet to post the top stories of the week. It's been that busy.

All Politics, Part 1 -- Post-South Carolina Analysis -- February 29, 2020

One night only: by Tuesday, midnight, what happened in South Carolina tonight will be forgotten. But wow, Bernie's supporters have to be shaken and stirred. Bloomberg can see the writing on the wall. It's a two-man race and Bloomberg's not in it.


Bat Out Of Hell, Meatloaf

South Carolina: less than one minute after the polls closed in South Carolina, MSNBC declared Joe Biden the winner. Clyburn is still the king-maker in South Carolina. [Later: Jim Carville just said that -- after I posted my note.] Biden got 60% of the black vote in the palmetto state. The questions: how big a spread between Biden/Bernie? Will anyone else get any delegates? Since this is the last state that Biden wins, we still get back to a brokered convention. Which -- by the way -- will there be a convention if coronavirus is still a concern? Hillary? Re-calculating; re-calculating; re-calculating.

South Carolina: the big story? I think this is the biggest story and it is not being reported. Steyer spent his fortune and reputation in South Carolina (and Nevada) and what did he get for all that? Zero, zilch, nada, nil delegates. He will remain a candidate through Super Tuesday, but then it's over. He has three options:
  • color inside the lines; be a good sport; go to the DNC convention, and support the Democrat nominee;
  • continue to run anti-Trump ads but as a non-party billionaire; with no future as a federally-elected official;
  • fade away; call it a day; 
South Carolina: the big story: pollsters. "Everyone" predicted a Biden win but there was some doubt. No one predicted a blow-out. Biden delivered a blow-out. 

South Carolina: the big story. Caucuses are dead. Weeks after the Iowa caucuses we still don't really know the final count; forty-eight hours after the Nevada caucuses, less than 100% of the precincts were reporting. South Carolina: within a minute of the polls closing, we had the winner, and no one contesting/questioning the numbers. I bet even Iowans are sick and tired of caucuses. Later: it's not even 10:00 p.m. Central Time and 99% of the South Carolina vote is in. Iowans better never call the South backward again. LOL.

Link here.

South Carolina: the biggest laugh. After the huge Biden win, some talking heads actually suggested Bloomberg might get out of the race. LOL. Bloomberg doesn't see the race starting until Super Tuesday. At the end of tonight, Bernie will have 62 delegates, Biden will have 52 delegates. The Democrat candidate needs 1,991 delegates. [Later: Rachel Maddow is still suggesting that Bloomberg should drop out before Super Tuesday. Give me a break. That was his plan all along: to start on Super Tuesday. Is Rachel Maddow as smart as people think she is. Is she a closet-Biden supporter?]

South Carolina: of course it's the big political story today, but still, the networks, especially MSNBC seem to be really, really over-playing this story. Fifty-four delegates; one state; a southern state? Give me a break. Other than as a "primary state," is South Carolina even important in a national election? 2012: Trump: 55%; Hillary: 41%.

African-Americans: seem to be getting way too much press. Bernie would say it's the Latino/Latina vote. I would agree.

South Carolina: the big story. Some folks wondered if today's turnout would beat the 2016 turnout; no one thought today's turnout would come close to the record turnout in 2008 --
  • 2016: 370,000
  • 2008: record turnout -- 515,000
  • 2020: 505,000 with 96% reporting -- absolutely incredible --
Right now, with about 53% reporting, Biden may sweep the board; Bernie will barely hit 15%. Biden might win every county in South Carolina, including the college towns.

And finally, the most interesting story to watch Tuesday -- how will Bloomberg do -- remember, he has spent almost $600 million (or maybe more). That's more than a half-billion dollars and he's not been on one ballot yet this primary season. 

Several XTO Tobacco Garden Wells Off-Line; Unable To Find Explanation -- February 29, 2020

The XTO Tobacco Garden / Arnold wells.

In late February, 2020, I noted that several XTO wells in Tobacco Garden had been taken off line. I cannot find any reason why these wells would have been taken off line.

I just checked the five XTO wells in Tobacco Garden that are still on the confidential list, that are in the same area: nothing has changed. They are still on the conf list, and there is still a rig on site, on the pad, #36627.

The four wells with no production in 12/19:
  • 30256, Tobacco Garden 11X-17E;
  • 23839, Leiseth 24X-22E;
  • 21208, Jore 34-22NWH; and, 
  • 20719, Bergem 44-28NWH;
The five wells in the general area that are still on confidential; on the same pad, and with a rig on site, permit number followed by API:
  • 33631: 33-053-09121
  • 36630: 33-053-09120
  • 36629: 33-053-09119
  • 36628: 33-053-09118
  • 36627: 33-053-09117 
Checking FracFocus for two of the above, no frack data posted. 

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 29, 2020

South Carolina: less than one minute after the polls closed in South Carolina, MSNBC declared Joe Biden the winner. Clyburn is the king-maker in South Carolina. Biden got 60% of the black vote in that state. The questions: how big a spread between Biden/Bernie. Did anyone else get any delegates. Since this is the last state that Biden wins, we still get back to brokered convention. Which by the way -- will there be a convention if coronavirus is still a concern? Hillary? Re-calculating; re-calculating; re-calculating.

South Carolina: the big story? Steyer spent his fortune and reputation and what did he get for all that? Zero, zilch, nada, nil delegates.

Farmers: apparently President Trump signed the bill that eliminated the estate tax ("death tax") on small farms, small businesses. I had not heard that. I don't know if that's accurate. I will check that later.

Coronavirus: absolutely fascinating. Re-posting from February 25, 2020 -- this is the third time this has been posted, I believe. It's that interesting. The original post, and two re-postings:
Is this a bio experiment gone awry in Wuhan?

The Chinese physician who first called attention to this died? Is he the only physician that has died of Covid-19? Exactly what were the circumstances of his death? How many other physicians have died? I haven't heard of any others.

How did a "country physician" come up with the cause of this brand new infectious disease, seemingly overnight? Explanations for most unexplained cases like this are preceded by four articles in the Lancet, two articles in The New England Journal of Medicine, and a breakthrough article in Nature. But in this case, no research articles, but simply a "country doctor" discovering the cause. And then he's dead; within days. Shoot, the incubation period is two weeks. Jeffrey Epstein did not hang himself.

Many, many more questions. The questions fall into two categories. The first category is for Sherlock Holmes to answer: where/how/why/when did the virus appear. I think there is enough circumstantial evidence for Sherlock to start working some theories. In fact, my hunch is that Sherlock Holmes would have already sorted this out. It's too bad Richard Feynman is no longer with us. He, too, would have it figured out. Algore, the inventor of the internet and discoverer of global warming -- I'm surprised we haven't heard from him.
Now, this from ZeroHedge today:
Here is a quick recap of what has happened so far in China:
  • The deadly Covid-19, i.e., SARS-like coronavirus, originated as a byproduct of banned "gain of function" genetic engineering conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Contrary to the conventionally accepted official narrative, it then spread, presumably by accident, to a nearby food market, where it infected patient zero and the rest is history (in the meantime, anyone who reported that the virus was sourced at the Wuhan Level-4 biolab was ostracized, shunned, threatened, arrested or simply ordered to retract their statement or research). [See below.]
  • In the early days of the pandemic, in hopes of avoiding a panic, Beijing actively rounded up any doctors who tried to sound the alarm on the danger that the coronavirus posed. Only three weeks later, around Jan 20, did China start reporting official numbers associated with the disease.
  • Just days after it "broke the seal" on the information blackout, Beijing quarantined over 60 million people in major Chinese cities, in hopes of avoiding a further panic, and preventing further spread of the virus. Ultimately, over 700 million people - half of China's population - was put on some form of lock down. Panic had by now spread across the mainland, as virtually nobody in China had any idea what the facts were aside from the government's propaganda.
  • As a result of the widespread quarantine, China's economy came to a complete halt and for weeks after the Lunar new year, various high-frequency indicators showed that the economy has failed to reboot. Realizing that an economic paralysis could be just as devastating for its primary objective of preserving social calm and stability, Beijing had a change of heart.
  • Faced with a catastrophic dilemma, and forced to choose between either economic collapse due to mass quarantines, or economic collapse due to a frozen economy - with the bulk of China's SMEs which are responsible for 60% of China's GDP, facing insolvency in 2-3 months unless things return to normal - Beijing reversed track and started to openly manipulate the coronavirus data in mid-February to contain the widespread panic and give the impression that it had the pandemic under control, even though periodic reports demonstarting just how Beijing was lying about the real numbers and occasional "changes in definition" which resulted in a surge in "new cases" confirmed to the population how Beijing was purposefully underreporting the full extent of the pandemic. This only made the distrust worse, not helping to contain the rising panic.
And that's just the beginning. Unless I missed it, ZeroHedge does not mention that the Wuhan physician who first identified the cause of that "first death," was said to have died of the disease. As many have said, Jeffrey Epstein didn't hang himself.

In addition, just earlier today, I said that folks would start calling this a pandemic sooner than later. Seasonal flu -- with millions infected in the US, and with tens of thousands of deaths from seasonal flu in the US -- seasonal flu does not meet the definition of epidemic in this country, according to the CDC. 

ZeroHedge is permanently banned from twitter.

Russia had its Chernobyl.

Japan had its Fukushima.

Now, China, Wuhan flu.

Coronavirus -- Global Health -- Public Health -- Fascinating -- February 29, 2020

February 29, 2020: the daily statistics won't be out for about eight hours, but right now the big news is in the US. Data, as of 2:17 p.m. Central Time, February 29, 2020:
  • US: five new cases (now at 68), and the first death, an individual in Washington state with minimal additional details.
  • China holding steady at around 50 new deaths each day;
  • South Korea with a whopping 813 new cases, far more than what China even had (433), today;
    • despite that huge increase in new cases, South Korea is reporting only one new death (one can expect new deaths to come over the next few days)
  • Italy: with about half as many new cases (239) as China; considering the difference in population, that's very, very alarming for Italy; in addition, eight new deaths in Italy compared to just that one new death in South Korea;
  • Iran: statistics almost identical with Iran; total cases almost doubled overnight; 43 total deaths; 9 new deaths;
  • Diamond Princess: no new cases; no new deaths;
I keep looking for a historical precedent. It's very possible the 1918 influenza pandemic is the best historical model. See "1918 "Spanish" influenza" link below. The takeaways:
  • a pandemic will be declared within six month; and, 
  • the pandemic will burn itself out before a vaccine is widely available
One definition of a pandemic:
  • when an epidemic spreads throughout the world
What is the CDC's definition of "seasonal flu epidemic"? Re-posting from yesterday:
From the CDC, week 8, ending February 22, 2020:
  • overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the season increased to 53/100,000
  • the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.9%, which is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%
My hunch: "this" will be called an epidemic a lot more quickly than "they call it" for "seasonal flu." It is very likely, it will be called a pandemic before "epidemic" criteria are met.

******************************************
Viruses, Flu, Corona, and All That Jazz

New links:
Re-posting from February 2, 2020:
A reader called me out -- and rightly so -- on my flippant remarks regarding coronavirus. So, where do we stand on this issue? Here are a few links:

Case studies for the future, from an earlier post:
  • South Korea: will be incredibly interesting from many aspects; 
    • South Korea may indeed be "the model" for the US;
  • Italy: could be the model for the EU;
  • Iran: third world country; method of containment: trucks driving down city streets spraying germicides;
  • Russia: a fairly closed society;
  • Turkey; complete and total disregard for possible consequences; institutes policies to ensure "inevitability" that coronavirus spreads;
Re-posting, from February 25, 2020:
Is this a bio experiment gone awry in Wuhan?

The Chinese physician who first called attention to this died? Is he the only physician that has died of Covid-19? Exactly what were the circumstances of his death? How many other physicians have died? I haven't heard of any others.

How did a "country physician" come up with the cause of this brand new infectious disease, seemingly overnight? Explanations for most unexplained cases like this are preceded by four articles in the Lancet, two articles in The New England Journal of Medicine, and a breakthrough article in Nature. But in this case, no research articles, but simply a "country doctor" discovering the cause. And then he's dead; within days. Shoot, the incubation period is two weeks. Jeffrey Epstein did not hang himself.

Many, many more questions. The questions fall into two categories. The first category is for Sherlock Holmes to answer: where/how/why/when did the virus appear. I think there is enough circumstantial evidence for Sherlock to start working some theories. In fact, my hunch is that Sherlock Holmes would have already sorted this out. It's too bad Richard Feynman is no longer with us. He, too, would have it figured out. Algore, the inventor of the internet and discoverer of global warming -- I'm surprised we haven't heard from him.

The second category, the public health angle, which is now the "only" medical angle: if you were "king/queen for a day" and could institute your plan to control this infectious disease how/what would you do? What policies would you dictate? 
US lab, from wiki:
Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) is part of the NIH Intramural Research Program and is located in Hamilton, Montana.
Operated by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, RML conducts research on maximum containment pathogens such as Ebola as well as research on prions and intracellular pathogens such as Coxiella burnetti and Francisella tularensis.
RML operates one of the few Biosafety level 4 laboratories in the United States, as well as Biosafety level 3 and ABSL3/4 laboratories.
In February 2020, electron microscope images of Novel Coronovirus strain COVID-19 were collected at RML.
From globalbiodefense:
The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) has produced images of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV), the causative pathogen of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), on its scanning and transmission electron microscopes this week.
Note that the images do not look much different from MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which emerged in 2012) or the original SARS-CoV (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which emerged in 2002).
That is not surprising: The spikes on the surface of coronaviruses give this virus family its name – corona, which is Latin for “crown,” and most any coronavirus will have a crown-like appearance.
RML investigator Emmie de Wit, Ph.D., provided the virus samples as part of her studies. Microscopist Elizabeth Fischer produced the images, and the RML visual medical arts office digitally colorized the images.

More links:

Alexa -- I'm Still Learning The Internets, Too -- February 29, 2020

I went over to the granddaughters' house about 9:00 a.m. this morning, to take Sophia, the 5-y/o, going on sixteen, to gymnastics.

Downstairs in the kitchen Alexa was playing the songs from Frozen 2.

Sophia came down from upstairs, and immediately heard Frozen 2 playing but was upset that someone had not paused it when her favorite song was playing, as she had asked (which I found out later). [Wow, that's a run-on sentence.]

She said, "Oh, no, why didn't Mom pause it."

Me: "I don't think you can 'pause' Alexa."

Sophia: "Here, hold my milk. Alexa, pause."

And, of course, the music stopped until Sophia told Alexa to start again.

Later, about half an hour later, we are driving to gymnastics. From the booster seat in the back, Sophia asks me if I'm still learning "Alexa."

I said I guess I was (since I didn't know Alexa could pause).

She then said, rubbing more salt into that wound, "would you like me to teach you?"

LOL.

A Hess Injectivity Test -- The Ortloff Wells In Big Butte -- February 29, 2020

Hess injectivity test. From the March, 2020, NDIC hearing dockets, the cases (not permits):
  • 28358, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27295, EN-Ortloff #6; Mountrail County,
  • 28359, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27296, EN-Ortloff #5; Mountrail County,
  • 28360, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27297, EN-Ortloff #4; Mountrail County,
  • 28361, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27294, EN-Ortloff #7; Mountrail County,
The wells:
  • 27294, 990, Hess, EN-Ortloff-156-94-2635H-7, Big Butte, t10/14; cum 186K 1/20;
  • 27295, 1,014, Hess, EN-Ortloff-156-94-2635H-6, Big Butte, t9/14; cum 127K 1/20;
  • 27296, 863, Hess, EN-Ortloff-156-94-2635H-5, Big Butte, t10/14; cum 193K 1/20;
  • 27297, 589, Hess, EN-Ortloff-156-94-2635H-7, Big Butte, t9/14; cum 109K 1/20; 
File report from #27294: most recent sundry form dated September 7, 2018.

Graphics:





Friday, February 28, 2020

Kraken, 99 Wells, Burg Oil Field -- March, 2020, NDIC Hearing Dockets

Case (not a permit):
  • 28343, Kraken, Burg-Bakken, ten wells on nine standup 1280-acre units; 90 wells total, multiple sections-159-99; Williams County;
Graphics:


**************************************
More


Coronavirus Update -- February 28, 2020

Case study: The Diamond Princess coronavirus event is being closely monitored and studied by the public health community. Talk about a rare chance to study a "controlled population." Except that children (and younger people in general) would be under-represented in this population it will still provide a wealth of information about the virus. Basic facts:
  • 3,711 passengers and crew
  • 705 cases (as of 6:39 a.m. Central Time, February 29, 2020 -- real-time updates)
  • deaths: 6
  • death rate of 6/705 = 0.85%
We'll also get to see the "incubation period" and how long an outbreak can last:
  • January 20, 2020: index case; 80-y/o male from Hong Kong embarked in Yokohama
  • he sailed on segment, disembarking on January 25, 2020
  • he visited a local Hong Kong hospital, six days later, January 31, 2020;
  • he tested positive on February 1, 2020
  • on the next segment, February 4, 2020: ten passengers were diagnosed with the virus (while in Japanese waters)
The ship remains under quarantine as of February 29, 2020; anchored off Yokohama, Japan. The exact date of quarantine was not stated, but one can probably consider February 4, 2020, as the most likely date.

Of huge concern from the public health angle: the most recent deaths from the Diamond Princess: two deaths two days ago -- almost a month after the first case was diagnosed. However, it is not known when the most recent patient became infected, when that patient first showed symptoms, when that patient was first diagnosed; when that patient was hospitalized; where those two patients were hospitalized; and where they are being treated.

Recent history from the Diamond Princess:
  • February 29: one new case, 70 years old; got off the ship Feb 20, symptoms Feb 28; remains "mild"
  • February 28: one new case, a Japanese woman in her 70s
  • February 27: no new cases actually report on ship (however, see below)
  • February 26: fourteen new cases: nine crew members and five passengers
  • February 25: one new death; a person in their 80s; again, no details
Tracking challenges; double counting: as one scrolls through the list of countries with less than five coronavirus cases, they are "all" evacuees from the Diamond Princess, which underscores the challenge of sorting this out. For example, on February 26, any number of European countries reported one new case and in each incidence, it was an individual in quarantine evacuated from the Diamond Princess.

South Korea: from February 20, 2020:
The Shincheonji religious group in Daegu, attended by the 31st case (a possible "super spreader"), has been shut down after about 10 members tested positive for the virus. About 1,000 members attended worship at the church. 
Case studies for the future:
  • South Korea: will be incredibly interesting from many aspects; 
    • South Korea may indeed be "the model" for the US
  • Italy: could be the model for the EU
  • Iran: third world country; method of containment: trucks driving down city streets spraying germicides;
  • Russia: a fairly closed society
"Super spreaders": imagine the number of super spreaders in this group of 30,000 refugees that Turkey will let stream into the EU this weekend.  No matter how much money public health agencies have, it won't be enough if countries like Turkey are this irresponsible.
 
*************************************
Coronavirus Update

The official daily figures for February 28, 2020, should be posted within the next few hours. It looks similar to yesterday with the exception of two new deaths from the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship. It appears that China is running about 50 new deaths/day. Outside of China, the countries with the most new deaths were Iran (8), Italy (4), South Korea (3).

It appears the following countries reported their first cases:
  • Mexico (two new cases; the first cases reported by Mexico)
    Nigeria
  • New Zealand
  • Monaco
  • Lituania
  • Iceland
  • Belarus
  • Azerbaijan
The United States reported three new cases bringing the total to 63 cases overall; no coronavirus-related deaths (yet) -- but that's inevitable. Especially now that Mexico has their first cases, and the courts are not supporting the president's policies to protect the southern border.

If Mexico were to lose control of the public health crisis, one can assume Mexicans attempting to leave the country would head north, not south to Guatemala.

Coronavirus is tracked here.

**********************************
Seasonal Flu
Or
What The Major Networks Are Not Reporting

With regard to seasonal flu, the CDC is much less exact with regard to numbers. As of February 21, 2020:
More than 100 kids have died of the flu so far this season.
Flu deaths up in the new year: CDCFlu deaths are up more than 65% so far in 2020, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized.
From the CDC, week 8, ending February 22, 2020:
  • overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the season increased to 53/100,000
  • the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.9%, which is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%;
  • pediatric deaths:
    • 20 new deaths this past week;
    • cumulative for the 2019 - 2020 season: 125
  • the "flu" vaccine is less than 50% effective; reported February 27, 2020, the "flu" vaccine is said to be 45% effective, about average for "flu" vaccines in general;
In the small print of that report:
The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 52.7 per 100,000 population which is similar to what has been seen during recent previous influenza seasons at this time of year.
Rates in school aged children and young adults are higher than at this time in recent seasons, and rates among children 0-4 years old are now the highest CDC has on record at this point in the season, surpassing rates reported during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
Note that despite the rates for children being higher than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic there have been no calls to close day care centers, schools, or athletic events, to the best of my knowledge.
The highest rate of hospitalization is among adults aged ≥ 65, followed by children aged 0-4 years and adults aged 50-64 years. 
******************************************* 
Coronovirus Statistics
February 28, 2020

Four most important statistics:
  • growth factor: 2%; no change; same as yesterday, 2%
  • daily deaths, change in new deaths, daily, 7 (12%) d/d; yesterday: 21 (57%) d/d; much better;
  • daily deaths, change in total deaths, 65 (2%), d/d; yesterday: 58 (2%) about the same as yesterday;
  • deaths by country: see above; unremarkable;

WTI Drops Below $45 On Coronavirus Demand Fears -- February 28, 2020

Active rigs:

$44.762/28/202002/28/201902/28/201802/28/201702/28/2016
Active Rigs5267574138

Two new permits, #37415 - #37416, inclusive --
  • Operators: Kraken, Oasis
  • Fields: Lone Tree Lake
    • Comments:
      Kraken has a permit for a Redfield Central well in Lone Tree Lake, NENW section 25-157-99;
    • Oasis has a permit for aWold well in the same oil field, Lone Tree Lake, according to the daily activity report, but that's clearly in error; it should be Sand Creek and that's what the scout ticket says (Sand Creek); in SWSE section 34-153-97;
One permit was renewed:
  • Whiting, an Olson permit in Williams County;
One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:
  • 35902, A/SI, Slawson, Tempest Federal 1 SLH, t--; cum -- ; not sure what is going on with this well; nothing in the file report; re-configuring the pad may have caused some delay;

Holy Mackerel! -- Pocahontas Down Eight Points In Her Home State; Did Bloomberg Erode Her Support? -- February 28, 2020

Sent to me by a reader; huge thank you.

I assume she is down for three reasons:
  • not liberal enough (four points there);
  • her screeching (two points there);
  • her history of opportunism/lying (two points there)
Previous polls: Sanders and Pocahontas statistically tied.

Most recent poll: Sanders by eight points over Pocahontas.


Sanders stayed about the same.

Pocahontas loses six points.

Buttigieg: unchanged.

Biden: down three points.

Who picked up those nine points? Bloomberg picked up four points.

It appears Bernie's support is fixed, stable, unshakeable, but won't change a whole lot.

Support of Pocahontas is blowin' in the wind.

Bloomberg making inroads but trivial, irrelevant. Unlikely to come out of MA with any delegates.

Massachusetts:
  • 91 of 114 delegates based on primary voting (rest are "super-delegates")
  • must get at least 15% of votes to be "viable)
  • in polling above:
  • 25 + 17 + 15 = 57 (assuming Buttigieg hits 15 and is viable)
  • 25/57 = 44%
  • 16/57 = 28%

Hess Permit -- March, 2020, Hearing Dockets -- Truax Oil Field

Case 28356 (not a permit):
  • 28356, Hess, Truax-Bakken, twelve wells on a 1280-acre unit, section 4/9-154-98; Williams County;
The graphics:



Wells in this drilling unit:
  • 35944, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-11, Truax,
  • 35943, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-10, Truax,
  • 35942, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-9, Truax,
  • 35941, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-8, Truax,
  • 35940, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-7, Truax,

  • 22612, 481, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-1, Truax, t9/12; cum 146K 12/19;

  • 29689, 878, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-5, Truax, t7/15; cum 186K 12/19;
  • 29688, 779, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-4, Truax, t8/15; cum 147K 12/19;
  • 29687, 985, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-3, Truax, t7/15; cum 110K 12/19;
  • 29686, 1,424, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-2, Truax, t7/15; cum 241K 12/19;

  • 30633, 1,902, Hess, SC-Hoving-LW-154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t11/18; cum 166K 12/19;

  • 29690, 1,745, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 152K 12/19;

Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste -- February 28, 2020

It will be interesting to watch the “loyal opposition “ oppose this:


And, the Fed might help:


*******************************
Meanwhile


Same day, here in the US: Ninth Circuit Court rules against Trump on southern border protection:


A Closer Look At The Oasis Kellogg Federal Well That Came Off Confidential Today -- February 28, 2020

The well:
  • 35252, 236, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 12T, Three Forks, 40 stages; 4.0 million lbs; Banks, t9/19; cum 57K 12/19;
The other wells on this pad:
  • 35253, conf,
  • 35351, conf
Production, #35252:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20193122062221023666849566459343136
BAKKEN11-20193011796117412746723446199413025
BAKKEN10-20193119362195763457945009397814732
BAKKEN9-2019629583260438367295783482
BAKKEN8-201939874491170416911411248

Neighboring wells (both have been added to the index of "wells of interest"):
  • 20048, 1,283, BR, Carlsbad 21-17H, Twin Valley, t8/12; cum 282K 12/19; huge production jump, period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20193110081101531146031240311630
BAKKEN11-201930856082041221025963258890
BAKKEN10-201931754577771121821017209400
BAKKEN9-201930680764851409918266124335759
BAKKEN8-201921113613801154236072731824
BAKKEN7-20193119121402368848974262558
BAKKEN6-201930339239631554928292080
BAKKEN5-2019892933643116341307307
BAKKEN4-2019003120000
BAKKEN3-201912825463111157315430
BAKKEN2-2019137601406127134613140
BAKKEN1-2019131077692141208720550
BAKKEN12-20181911131155271219721500
  • 20277, 1,213, Oasis, Rolfsrud Federal 18-19H, Banks, t2/12; cum 245K 12/19; huge jump; period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201931836887986590394992518214007
BAKKEN11-2019309962962313341464632971116452
BAKKEN10-201931114801181224755555172696128247
BAKKEN9-2019266397581535860274451206815116
BAKKEN8-2019130001410131
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-201851955032208558050
BAKKEN11-201829168713141264611058200
BAKKEN10-2018187231062375342132410
BAKKEN9-20183016671852955648161810

From the file report, #35252:
  • small frack;
  • stimulated 7/19;
  • approximately 16 miles northeast of Watford City, ND
  • Three Forks, first bench;
  • middle Bakken: entered at 11,065' MD (10,973' TVD) [44 feet thick]
  • lower Bakken shale member: recorded at 11,155' MD (11,017' TVD)
  • Pronghorn member: drilled at 11,236' MD (11,047' TVD) [five feet thick]
  • Three Forks, 1st bench: drilled at 11,253' MD (11,052' TVD
  • target: 16' , beginning 10' below the base of the Pronghorn and extending to 5' above the claystone;
  • in the horizontal, a 10- 20' trip flare at 19,387' MD
  • TD: 21,275' MD
  • lateral portion drilled in six days
  • exposed 9,916' of uncased hole, entirely within the Three Forks, first bench;
*************************************
Montessori

Sophia checking work and helping the others.


The March, 2020, NDIC Hearing Dockets

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

Link here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Nine Pages

The cases:
  • 28334, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, two wells on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 3/4/9/10-146-94; Dunn County;
  • 28335, MRO, Bailey and Killdeer-Bakken; setback rules, Dunn County
  • 28336, Petro-Hunt, Stoneview-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28337, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28338, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28339, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28340, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28341, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28342, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, poolign
  • 28343, Kraken, Burg-Bakken, ten wells on nine standup 1280-acre units; 90 wells total, multiple sections-159-99; Williams County; see this post;
  • 28344, Kraken, Burk-Bakken; ten wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; sections 29/32-159-99; Williams County; see this post;
  • 28345, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28346, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28347, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28348, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28349, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28350, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28351, Hess, commingling,
  • 28352, Hess, commingling,
  • 28353, Hess, commingling,
  • 28354, Hess,Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28355, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; two wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 13/24-157-94; Mountrail County;
  • 28356, Hess, Truax-Bakken, twelve wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 4/9-154-98; Williams County; see this post;
  • 28357, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28358, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27295, EN-Ortloff #6; Mountrail County, see this post;
  • 28359, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27296, EN-Ortloff #5; Mountrail County, see this post;
  • 28360, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27297, EN-Ortloff #4; Mountrail County, see this post;
  • 28361, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27294, EN-Ortloff #7; Mountrail County, see this post;
  • 28362, Hess Water Services, SWD, Beaver Lodge, Williams County;
  • 28363, Hess Water Services, SWD, Alkali Creek, Mountrail County;
  • 28364, MRO, Bailey-Bakken ten wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 4/9-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;
  • 28365, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, nine wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 17/20-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;
  • 28366, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 29/32-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;
  • 28367, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;
Thursday, March 26, 2020 
Twelve Pages

The cases:
  • 28368, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, Ltd, Flat Top Butte and/or Rough Rider-Bakken; establish a new 1600-acre unit; S/2 section 2, all of sections 11/14-145-101; two wells; McKenzie County;
  • 28369, Ovintive Production Inc; South Tobacco Garden-Bakken; amend stratigraphic limits; McKenzie County
  • 28370, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken, i) seven wells on a new overlapping 1920-acre unit, sections 22/27/34-152-91; ii) decrease from ten wells to three wells the number of wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 22-152-91; and, iii) decrease from ten wells to four wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 27/34-152-91; Mountrail County
  • 28371, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken; i) ten wells on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit, section 36-152-92, section 31-152-91, sectioin 1-151-92, and section 6-151-91; ii) ten wells on two existing 1280-acre units, sections 24/25-152-92; and, sections 19/30-152-91; iii) terminate an existing 5120-acre unit in Big Bend-Bakken; Mountrail County
  • 28372, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken; two wells on a new 3840-acre unit, sections 22/23/26/27/34/35-152-91; Mountrail County;
  • 28373, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken; amend field rules; setback rules;
  • 28374, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, one well on each of eight new 1280-acre units; multiple sections-160-103; Divide County;
  • 28375, KODA Resources, Grenora-Bakken, one well one each of nine new 1280-acre units; multiple sections-159-103, Williams County
  • 28376, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, one wells on each of nine 1280-acre units; multiple sections-159-102, Williams County;
  • 28377, Nine Point Energy, Briar Creek-Bakken, eight wells on a new 1920-acre unit, sections 5/8/17-152-104, Williams, McKenzie counties;
  • 28378, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, one well; two new overlapping 2560-acre units; Dunn County;
  • 28379, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, one well; two new overlapping 2560-acre units; McKenzie County;
  • 28380, Kraken, Sanish-Bakken, i) nine wells on a new overlapping 1920-acre unit, sections 21/28/33-154-92; ii) one horizontal well on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; iii) one horizontal well on a new overlapping 3840-acre unit; Mountrail County
  • 28381, Kraken, Robinson Lake-Bakken, one well; a new overlapping 3840-acre unit; Mountrail County;
  • 28382, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, amend field rule for specific well; Dunn County;
  • 28383, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, one wells, an overlapping 1280-acre unit (very strange 1280-acre unit);
  • 28384, commission to review permit for treating plant;
  • 28385, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, setback rules;
  • 28386, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, one well; two new overlapping 3200-acre units; Williams, McKenzie counties;
  • 28387, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, East Fork-Bakken; two wells on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams County
  • 28388, CLR, Sanish-Bakken, fourteen wells on each of two new 1680-acre units, many sections-153-93; McKenzie, Mountrail counties
  • 28389, Equinor, working interest legalese; Williams County;
  • 28390, Ovintiv, Production, Inc, Grinnell-Bakken, pooling;
  • 28391, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Grinnell-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28392, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Grinnell-Bakken; fourteen wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 28/33-154-96; McKenzie, Williams counties;
  • 28393, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Siverston-Bakken, fourteen wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units, sections 30/31-151-98; and section 6/7-150-98; McKenzie County
  • 28394, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Tobacco Garden-Bakken, fourteen wells one of three existing 1280-acre units; sections 2/11; sections 5/8; and section 6/7-150-99, McKenzie County
  • 28395, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28396, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28397, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28398, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28399, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28400, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28401, CLR, Williston and/or Catwalk-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28402, CLR, Catwalk and/or Last Chance-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28403, CLR, Epping-Bakken, two wells on an existing overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams
  • 28404, CLR, commingling,
  • 28405, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28406, Liberty Resources, Enget Lake-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28407, Liberty Resources, Enget Lake-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28408, EOG, Antelope-Sanish, pooling,
  • 28409, EOG, commingling,
  • 28410, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28411, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28412, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, eight wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 8-149-94, McKenzie County;
  • 28413, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28414, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28415, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28416, KODA Resources, Smoky Butte-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28417, KODA Resources, Hanks-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28418, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28419, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28420, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, pooling,
  • 28421, KODA Resources, Bar Butte, SWD,
  • 28422, KODA Resources, SWD,
  • 28423, Zavanna, SWD,
  • 28424, Hanna SWD, 


Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- What Does Hillary Have Against IHeartRadio -- Jeffrey Epstein Did Not Hang Himself -- February 28, 2020

Coronavirus: two new cases recorded in USA; now at 62; no deaths (yet). Inevitable. 

Recalculating: A recurring theme on the blog -- whenever there are significant political developments, Hillary Clinton pops back up in the news. Here we go again. Just in time for Super Tuesday; four of the seven front-runners looking to go home; Bernie surging; Bloomberg likely to survive only as an independent, third-party candidate: Hillary announces a new on-the-air program. Data points:
  • to be launched "this spring"
  • IHeart Radio platform (which includes Rush Limbaugh)
  • yet-to-be titled
  • will be upbeat
Canceled: folks may recall the Clintons had scheduled a 13-city tour back in late 2018. It was canceled due to "poor ticket sales. " The tour was to go deep into 2019 and keep Hillary in the "hunt." More here, one month later. And if you have not had enough of this fun, more here.

Polar bear update: link here.

Deportation appeal fees to rise: link here.

Sentenced: former Baltimore mayor sentenced to three years in prison.
  • 69 years old
  • tax evasion
  • conspiracy
  • pleaded guilty
Limbaugh: Vic Hanson.

Campaign 2020: link here. 

Atmospheric CO2, link here:



At the #realCandaceOwens: Weeks ago, we were all going to die from World War III because Trump killed Soleimani. —which was scheduled to take place before we were all going to die from climate change in 12 years. But now we’re all going to die from Coronavirus. The Left is becoming a Doomsday Cult.
  • within the last twelve hours, it was reported that two more passengers from the Diamond Princess had died; link here. Iran reporting more deaths. Fortunately Iran is not hosting the summer Olympics. 
Local McDonald's: this is almost bizarre. It seem the new owner-manager has doubled the morning rush-hour staff. Three assistant managers that generally alternate shifts and/or weekdays are all at work this morning. Meanwhile, the intense focus on cleaning continues. The drive-through traffic is always heavy during rush hour, but today's sit-down is busier than ever. Very, very interesting. The owner-manager -- a husband-wife team, it appears -- look to be in their mid-40s. Very likely they were brought in by McDonald's to turn this McDonald's around. Its location is one of the best in this area. It's also possible they own other McDonald's restaurants and have just bought this one to add to their franchise.
******************************************
Backyard This Morning



This one is really, really cool. Because I'm shooting into the sun and into the shadow, this is a bit hard to see. But, if you look carefully, there is a bit of "red flash" on the anterior/front of the left wing. One can also see a bit of the crest.