Thursday, June 25, 2020

Whiting With Two New Lacey Permits In Sanish Oil Field -- June 25, 2020

Dead cow: Vaca Muerta is no long economical. Link here.
As the global oil market began to fall apart earlier this year, fracking activity in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta came to a complete halt, with the number of fracking stages (a common measure of drilling activity in Argentina) falling from 430 in March to zero in April. See also S&P Global Platts.
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

Active Rigs1062655830

Two new permits, #37668 - #37669, inclusive --
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for two more Lacey wells in SWSW 3-152-92, both 300' FWL and about 850' from FSL

Notes From All Over -- The Louisiana Blue Crab Edition -- June 25, 2020

I'm in a great mood, and that was before I looked at the market. LOL.

This morning I was not feeling well; something was bothering me. Perhaps it was the news cycle; I know. I didn't know then and I don't know now. But now, that's all behind me. I'm in a great mood.
I just got back from driving around with our older granddaughter; she takes her driver's test next week.
I was told about a new Cajun take-out / store in our area and we stopped by on the way home. It's about five minutes from where we live. It's the real deal. I bought some Louisiana coffee -- trying it for the first time now -- yes, it's the real deal. LOL.
I don't put milk in coffee but the makers of this coffee recommend it and obviously that's how the folks in New Orleans do it, so I will have to think about it. But probably not. We'll see.
On the way out of the store I talked with the husband / wife owner / manager. Not sure which was which. I think she is the brains behind their joint venture. He says she is the one from Louisiana. This could be the beginning of a great friendship. What was that last line in Casablanca?
Anyway, I'm having the coffee now, and saw the headline story about the poverty rate.

And that was just after my note about reparations. That really put me in a great mood. We are truly living in exciting times, when things could really change for the better for some. I can't say what I'm really thinking because I don't need the push-back and there are a thousand ways to skin a cat, as they say.

Then I looked at the market. Are you kidding me? So much to be said, but I won't.

But the Dow is up almost 300 points.

See graphics at this post.

Louisiana blue crabs. I know nothing about blue crabs, but the menu showed #1 and #2 blue crabs. So here we go. Link here.  Look at this:
Blue crabs are found from northern Massachusetts to northern Argentina and throughout the Gulf of Mexico. They inhabit estuarine and coastal waters throughout Louisiana, however more than half of the crabs in Louisiana are harvested from Lake Pontchartrain and the Terebonne basins. Our fishermen harvest blue crabs year-round with peak catches in the summer months of June, July, and August.
I guess we go from crawdads to blue crabs. What a great country.
Louisiana supports the largest crab production of hard blue crabs in the nation and is the number one supplier of live No. 1 male crabs in the southern states. The blue crab is one of the most popular of the more than 4,500 species of crabs found worldwide.
And then how to eat them. YouTube? The first dozen hits are all out of Maryland. Need to narrow the search. Louisiana?

I think this is something Sophia would enjoy. Maybe not to eat but to help open up.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Following (wow, the market's already closed; completely missed that):
  • AAPL: closed up almost $5; up 1.33%; closed at just under $365;
  • PLUG: down about 3% today; okay;
    IMUX: up another 1.2%;

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- June 25, 2020


June 27, 2020: link to EIA, US natural gas storage capacity.

June 27, 2020: see comments. From a reader:
Footnote: it was the most natural gas added to storage during any June week in the modern record, and the 3rd largest natural gas storage increase in the past decade...
Natural gas prices fell to a 25-year low after the report on fears we'd run out of cavern space to store the stuff...
Original Post
Link here.

After report, natural gas plunges to all-time low.
Looks like the shaded part of the graph may soon change.

Notes From All Over -- Late Morning Edition -- June 25, 2020

Natural gas at new lows: $1.52.

Texas, corona virus: governor delays/postpones next "opening phase.

Mnuchin: hints at delaying the "July 15, 2020" tax filing deadline.

Reparations. The tea leaves suggest, sooner than later, reparations will be "passed." I think there are ways to make it work. It's one of those "aha" moments that emanates from the Covid pandemic. More on that later, perhaps.

Pandemic: I'm getting mixed messages. Are folks interested in "herd immunity" or not? 

Killing fields: more homicides in North Dakota in 2019 than in previous twenty years, in both rate and actual numbers. Link here.
  • by year:
    • 2019: 26
    • 2018: 17
    • 2017: 13
    • 2016: 16
    • 2015: 22
  • close and personal: number of homicides involving firearms: 9
  • domestic violence: 10 homicides; 2/3rds of victim, female;
  • by location:
    • Williston: 6 (includes baby boy, asphyxiation)
    • Fargo: 5
    • Wahpeton: 2
    • Minot/Ward County: 2

It's A Small, Small, Small World -- Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #36 -- June 25, 2020

This was sent to me on June 23, 2020. I did not post it. The article: appeals court hands President Trump another win. Appeals court says Trump administration can move forward with expanding fast-track deportations. 

Link here.

The decision was recorded as a 2 - 1 decision but in fact it was unanimous. Trust me. From the article:
In the 2-1 ruling, the majority wrote that a group of nonprofits had legal standing to bring the lawsuit but that immigration law granting broad authority to DHS makes their case unlikely to succeed.  
"There could hardly be a more definitive expression of congressional intent to leave the decision about the scope of expedited removal, within statutory bounds, to the Secretary’s independent judgment," Judge Patricia Millett wrote in the majority decision. 
Millett, an Obama appointee, and Judge Harry Edwards, a Carter appointee, were in the panel's majority. Judge Neomi Rao, appointed by President Trump, dissented, arguing the lawsuit should have been thrown out altogether. 
Let's repeat that in case you missed it the first time:
Millett, an Obama appointee, and Judge Harry Edwards, a Carter appointee, were in the panel's majority. Judge Neomi Rao, appointed by President Trump, dissented, arguing the lawsuit should have been thrown out altogether.
So that was that. Filed. Forgotten.

Until a reader spotted this. From the Washington Examiner the very next day: appeals court orders judge to grant motion to dismiss Flynn case.

Now what appeals court judge was that?

Yes, you are getting ahead of me. It was Judge Neomi Rao.
The two Republican appointees agreed that Sullivan should be ordered to dismiss the case, and the Democratic appointee dissented. Judge Neomi Rao, who was appointed by Trump in 2019, authored the appeals court opinion telling the lower court to dismiss the case and was joined by Judge Karen Henderson, appointed to the appeals court in 1990 by President George H.W. Bush.
By the way, I posted this earlier this morning:

US Senate confirms Trump's 200th judge; officially fills all appeals court vacancies;
I've been told that as much press as the US Supreme Court gets, it's really the appellate courts that have "all the power." That would be very, very true.  The US Supreme Court is very, very particular in which cases it will hear, and even if SCOTUS wanted to take on more cases, it simply could not due to the calendar and reality.

And appellate judges? Confirmed by the US Senate.

From The Hill, March, 2018:
President Trump mockingly thanked his predecessor former President Obama for leaving so many judicial posts vacant despite a Republican-controlled Senate slowing down confirmations during the last two years of the Obama administration.
“When I got in, we had over 100 federal judges that weren’t appointed,” Trump said during a speech in Ohio on Thursday. “I don’t know why Obama left that. It was like a big, beautiful present to all of us."

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- June 25, 2020

GDP, 3rd estimate 1Q20, link here: 
  • prior: -5.0%
  • consensus: -5.0%
  • actual: -5.0%
Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 1.508 million
  • revised: 1.540 million
  • consensus: 1.380 million
  • actual: 1.480 million
  • US Senate confirms Trump's 200th judge; officially fills all appeals court vacancies; see this note also.
  • NYC could cut upwards of 22,000 city jobs
NASCAR: lots of history with Bubba. It didn't matter until it did.

Price war: significant price cut for K-cups.
One needs to watch the unit cost; some boxes contain 120 K-cups; others contain 100 cups. Regardless, a box regularly sells for about $36 at Costco. Yesterday I noted that an "off-brand" was offering $6 rebate taken at the register, resulting in $29.99 for 100 cups. Dunkin' and Peet also offering similar $6-off coupon. Today, I see Costco is selling Starbucks Dark Roast with a $7-off coupon at the register for 72 cups. On another note, Dove bar soap has also announced a significant price drop. By the way, it appears the price cut war may be directed against Amazon; don't know, but it sure looks like it.
Apple at Costco: many of the Apple iPad models are sold out. That's been a common theme at Costco this year.

Guns: this has not been double-checked; from another source, unlinked. FBI background checks for would-be gun buyers, seen as a proxy for firearm sales:
  • 2019, year: monthly average -- 2.4 million background checks/month -- a record at hte time
  • 2020:
    • May: 3.1 million
    • April: 2.9 million
    • March: 3.7 million -- an all-time record; coincided with nationwide lockdown
  • estimate: 300 million guns privately owned; a third of the population owns guns
  • ratio of handguns to long-guns sold: 1.94, April, 2020; an all-time new record; 
    • previous high was 1.84 the previous month, March, 2020
Moldy:Chuck E. Cheese files for bankruptcy.

Tesla: Looks like the move is on to AOC the Tesla move to Texas. Link here.
My hunch: if Austin doesn't want Tesla, Plano, Dallas, Grapevine, Roanoke, will welcome Tesla with open arms. Huge Tesla dealer in Southlake. Lots of support here for Tesla. And Lamborghini for that matter, also.
Gasoline demand, link here:

OPEC basket: $38.17, link here.  Wow, this is not good news for Saudi Arabia.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1062655830

Three wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, June 25, 2020: 61 for the month; 206 for the quarter, 433 for the year:
  • 37052, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, Elm Tree,
  • 36873, drl/drl, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XW 1H, Alger,
  • 36791, drl/drl, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, Lone Butte,
RBN Energy: Tallgrass's Cheyenne Connector, REX Cheyenne hub gas projects begin service.
Tallgrass Energy and DCP Midstream’s Cheyenne Connector pipeline and the REX Cheyenne Hub Enhancement projects are set to begin operations tomorrow, June 26, after receiving FERC approval yesterday. The natural gas projects will add takeaway capacity out of the Denver-Julesburg and Powder River production basins. For Tallgrass, the incremental capacity has the potential to increase utilization of its Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), which has struggled to fully recontract its mainline capacity after a slew of long-term contracts expired last year. For gas producers, the new capacity and hub upgrades mean an alternative route out of the core DJ with farther-reaching destination options for gas flows, including access to REX and its growing direct-connect load and numerous third-party interconnects in the Midcontinent/Midwest. About 600 MMcf/d in firm contracts will kick in for each project with the start of service, but given that Niobrara gas production is down and there’s likely no new production waiting behind the capacity, gas flows on the two projects may come down to economics. In today’s blog, we provide an update on the projects in the context of today’s uncertain market.