Saturday, October 23, 2021

Where The Rigs Are -- October 23, 2021

From the NDIC, daily activity report, October 23, 2021, link here:

CLR (9):

Hess (3):

  • 38176, AN-Norby-LE-152-94-0409H-1
  • 37145, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-3
  • 38006, CA-E-Burdick-155-95-2932H-5

MRO (3):

  • 37996, Christoph 41-4H, Lot 1 section 4-146-94, Bailey,
  • 38539, Eliza 21-18TFH, NENW 18-146-93, Bailey (not on GIS map server, no scout ticket)
  • 38573, Austin 11-18H, lot 1 section 18-146-93 (not on GIS map server, no scout ticket)

Oasis (2):

  • 38337, Soto 5097 12-3 6B, lot 3 section 3-150-97, Siverston oil field, see this note;
  • 38381, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 3B, SWSE 35-151-97, Siverston oil field, see this note;

Enerplus:

Slawson:

  • 38454, Rainmaker Federal 5-25-36TFH, SESW 24-152-93;

Whiting:

Petroshale:

Ovintiv:

  • 38545, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-14H, NWNE 16-152-96;

Sinclair:

  • 38493, Grasslands Federal 14-15-1H, SWNE 13-147-98;

Kraken:

  • 38558, Maddie LW 10-15-22 1H, Burg, scout ticket not available, from daily activity report, NENE 9-158-99, 375 FNL and 429 FEL, a closer look at this well here;

Hunt:

Iron Oil Operating, LLC:

  • 38462, Antelope 2-17-20H, Sather Lake, daily activity report, NWNE 17-149N-101W, McKenzie, 360 FNL and 1412 FEL, four permits for this pad on that date.

Koda Resources Operating, LLC:

  • 37798, Stout 3427-3BH, SWSW 34-160-102; far northwest North Dakota; certainly Tier 3 at best?

Crescent Point Energy:

  • 38423, Reed 5-10-3-158N-100N-MBH, SWSE 10-158-100;

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Where The Boys Are

Where The Boys Are, Connie Frances

The Oasis Soto And Swenson Federal Wells In Siverston Oil Field

Oasis is drilling these wells according to yesterday's daily activity report. These permits were awarded June 1, 2021, along with three other permits:

  • 38337, Soto 5097 12-3 6B, lot 3 section 3-150-97,
  • 38381, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 3B, SWSE 35-151-97, 

The other permits on June 1, 2021:

  • 38333, loc, Soto 5097 12-3 2B,
  • 38334, loc, Soto 5097 12-3 3B,
  • 38335, loc, Soto 5097 12-3 4T,
  • 38336, loc, Soto 5097 12-3 5B,
  • 38337, loc, Soto 5097 12-3 6B, lot 3 section 3-150-97; 346 FNL and 2039 FWL, Siverston, McKenzie,

The other permits on June 17, 2021:

  • 38380, loc, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 2B,
  • 38381, loc, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 3T, SWSE 3-151-97, 307 FSL and 2194 FEL, Siverston, McKenzie,
  • 38382, loc, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 4B,
  • 38383, loc, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 5B,

A Closer Look At Kraken's Maddie/Jenna Wells In Burg Oil Field

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. In addition, facts, conjectures, and opinions are interspersed and are difficult to separate them. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Because the NDIC is not updating the GIS map server or the scout tickets, one cannot find the location of these locations on the map nor are scout tickets available. Working backwards to the August 24, 2021, daily activity report, four new Kraken permits:

Four new permits, #38509 - #38512, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Fields: Burg (Williams); Ellisville (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for four wells to be sited in NENE 9-158-99: Jenna, Jenna LE, Alamo, and Maddie;
    • the wells will be sited 375 FNL and between 396 FEL and 528 FEL

And a fifth new permit, September 14, 2021:

  • 38558, Maddie LW 10-15-22 1H, Burg, scout ticket not available, from daily activity report, NENE 9-158-99, 375 FNL and 429 FEL, a closer look at this well here;

The permits / wells:

  • 38509, conf, Kraken, Jenna 4-33-28 3H, NENE 9-158-99, 375 FNL and 528 FEL, Burg,
  • 38510, conf, Kraken, Jenna LE 4-33-28 1TFH, NENE 9-158-99, 375 FNL and 495 FEL, Burg,
  • 38511, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 2H, NENE 9-158-99, 375 FNL and 462 FEL, Burg,
  • 38512, conf, Kraken, Maddie 10-15-22 2H, NENE 9-158-99, 375 FNL and 396 FEL, Burg,
  • 38558, conf, Kraken, Maddie LW 10-15-22 1H, NENE 9-158-99, 375 FNL and 429 FEL, Burg

These Kraken wells have been named in such a way we know the drilling unit:

  • 38509, sections 4 / 33 / 28 -- running north;
  • 38510, sections 4 / 33 / 28 -- running north;
  • 38511, sections 3 / 34 / 27 -- running north;
  • 38512, sections 10 / 15 / 22 -- running south;
  • 38558, section line well, sections 10 / 15 / 22 -- running south;

Existing/producing wells in this drilling unit: 

It looks like these will be 1920-acre wells.

It appears these were the related cases from July, 2021; there were several such related cases; I did not take the time to sort them out -- only wanted to confirm that these would be 1920-acre-spaced wells.

  • 28855, Kraken, Burg-Bakken, establish four standup 1920-acre units; four wells on each, Williams County;
  • 28856, Kraken, Burg and/or Ellisville-Bakken, establish two standup 1920-acre units; four wells each; Williams County;

Several other wells in the immediate area, most/all are 1280-acre unit wells:

  • 33427, Kraken, t8/17; cum 278K 8/21;
  • 33428, Kraken, t8/17; cum 271K 8/21;
  • 26083, Kraken, t10/13; cum 144K 8/21;
    27252, Kraken, t4/14; cum 168K 8/21;
  • 22255, Kraken, t6/12; cum 144K 8/21;
  • 34042, Kraken, t3/18; cum 274K 8/21; 
  • 34041, Kraken, t3/18; cum 375K 8/21;
  • 34626, Kraken, t9/18; cum 201K 8/21; 
  • 34534, Kraken, t9/18; cum 163K 8/21; 
  • 34535, Kraken, t91/8; cum 148K 8/21; 
  • 34536, Kraken, t9/18; cum 141K 8/21; 
  • 34537, Kraken, t9/18; cum 140K 8/21;

A Closer Look At A 9-Well Petroshale Clark Federal Pad In Bear Den -- October 23, 2021

A rig is currently drilling on this site:

Petroshale:

This well is confidential. Several wells on this pad are all on confidential status. Because they are on confidential status, we don't know for sure which way these horizontal wells will run. But that doesn't keep us from guessing.

Here is a graphic of the nine-well pad:

Does this help?

Opinion/hunch: there's only one direction these horizontal wells can run; the spacing unit will be a 640-acre drilling unit, one section:

The Enerplus / Bruin FB-Leviathan Wells

These wells were acquired from Bruin

The wells:

  • 35487, loc/PNC, Three Forks, Antelope,
  • 35488, loc/PNC, middle Bakken, Antelope,
  • 35716, loc, Three Forks, Antelope,
  • 35490, loc, middle Bakken, Antelope,
  • 35489, loc, Three Forks, T2, Antelope,
  • 35491, loc, Three Forks, Antelope,
  • 35492, loc, middle Bakken, Antelope,
  • 35717, loc, Three Forks, Antelope,
  • 35718, loc, middle Bakken, Antelope,
  • 35493, loc, Three Forks, T2, Antelope,

Wells of interest, to the east:

  • 31774, 5,058, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-27A-34-16H, Antelope, t7/18; cum 668K 8/21;

Wells in same drilling unit, to the west, drilling from the south to the north:

  • 20916, AB/2,361, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-34C-27-2H, t1/14; cum 345K 9/19;
  • 20915, AB/3,363, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-3B-10-2H, t8/13; cum 276K 12/16;

CLR's Dolezal Wells -- Chimney Butte

Not to be confused with Petro-Hunt's Dolezal wells in Little Knife.

The wells:

  • 38352, Bice, running north;
  • 38353, Bice, running north;
  • 38354, PNC, CLR, Dolezal FIU 11-5H, Chimney Butte,
  • 38355, conf, CLR, Dolezal FIU 10-5H1, Chimney Butte,
  • 38356, conf, CLR, Dolezal FIU 9-5H, Chimney Butte,
  • 38357, conf, CLR, Dolezal FIU 8-5H1, Chimnehy Butte,
  • 38358, conf, CLR, Dolezal FIU 7-5H, Chimney Butte,


  • 19728, 549, CLR, Dolezal 2-5H, Chimney Butte, t5/11; cum 303K 8/21;
  • 17372, 426, CLR, Dolezal 1-5H, Chimney Butte, t9/09; cum 205K 8/21;
  • 31511, 439, CLR, Dolezal 5-5H, Chimney Butte, t1/18; cum 194K 8/21;
    31512, 307, CLR, Dolezal 5-5H1, Chimney Butte, t1/18; cum 157K 8/21;
  • 24839, 758, CLR, Dolezal 3-5H, Chimney Butte, t2/14; cum 300K 8/21; 
  • 24841, 954, CLR, Dolezal 4-5H1, Chimney Butte, t2/14; cum 291K 8/21;

About That Energy Revolution -- October 23, 2021

 In land area, Indonesia is smaller than Denmark. Hold that thought. 

Countries strongly dependent upon coal, ZeroHedge:


Oil: meanwhile the stories keep coming in -- shortage of crude oil; end-of-year crude oil could see $90-Brent; $87-WTI. With WTI at $84 yesterday, I don't see a lot of difference between yesterday's price and end-of-year price as forecast by Goldman's Jeff Curie. Remember: whether or not guys like Jeff Curie are right or wrong, folks make decisions based on their estimates. 

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Americans on the Move

Moving company, Mayflower, data:

  • top inbound metro: Sarasota, FL (New Yorkers leaving high cost/high tax NYC)
  • top inbound states with number one listed first:
      • Idaho
      • South Carolina
      • Oregon
      • Tennessee
      • Florida
  • Top inbound metro areas:
    • Sarasota, FL
    • Wilmington, NC
    • Fort Myers-Cape Coral, FL
    • Sante Fe, NM
    • Boise, ID
  • Top reasons certain destinations selected once decision to move was made:
    • two-thirds indicated water as a top influence:
    • almost as many cited proximity to parks, green spaces, and nature trails
    • over half indicated dining out options influenced their move
  • Most interesting: the definition of "home town" is changing
    • when I was growing up, "home town" meant where I was originally from;
    • now, more and more, "home town" means where one currently lives
  • Unable to verify, but it appears Mayflower did not poll the 75,000 Haitians currently on their way to America.

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Lana Del Rey

Eighth album: Blue Bannisters.

Apparently just released.

Full album is already on YouTube.

Review

Her fans are incredible.

Holiday Spending "Just In Time" Vs "Just In Case" -- October 23, 2021

NASCAR today: 2:00 CT, Kansas. Second of three, group of eight. Standings here.

Holiday spending:

  • first report: $1,000 / person spending this holiday season; "every" media source predicts huge spending season"; link here;
  • Adobe forecasts record online holiday spending;
  • emarketer, forecast:
    • total US retail sales will rise 9.0% to $1.147 trillion
      • brick-and-mortar retail: will surge 7.9% to $935.79 billion
      • US retail commerce sales will climb a whopping 14.4% to $211.66 billion
      • e-commerce to account for 18.4% of total retail sales
    • forecast factors in ongoing strength (see my favorite graph below):
      • ongoing strength in the consumer economy despite resurgence of Covid-19 (delta variant)
      • low unemployment
      • rising wages
      • booming stock market
      • government stimulus
    • Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday? see link
    • retailers' biggest winners:
      • Amazon
      • Walmart
      • Target
      • Best Buy

Amazon:

  • high gasoline prices won't affect overall spending
  • having said that, Amazon will benefit if high gasoline prices impact spending at all
  • three large mailings = Amazon Prime membership
  • USPS large flat box$22.65; I believe USPS is less expensive than UPS and much, much less expensive than FedEx
  • USPS: three days shipping and recently announced that agency purposely extending delivery times to save money
  • Amazon: one-day delivery is the norm; same day common;
  • Amazon Prime: Prime Video; Amazon music;

Mastercard: sees holiday spending reaching record on 7.4% growth; link here;

Anecdote:

  • my wife was looking for a specific $2-item at brick-and-mortar; unable to find it at three different stores
  • went on Amazon; found product for $20; aghast until she read the small print: box of ten
  • my wife, who was only going to spend $2 for a single item, went ahead and bought the 10-pack
  • why does Amazon (generally) not run out of stuff?
  • on the flip side -- do folks now understand why there are shortages? Anecdote: my wife just took ten items off the shelf when all she was looking for was one -- and this is happening hundreds of thousands of times per day around the country.  
  • we used to buy "just in time"; now, we buy "just in case."

Anecdote:

  • my wife went with her friend yesterday; early Christmas and Hanukkah shopping
  • listening to all the reports that there will be a shortage "of things" by end of November
  • retailers doing a great job to get folks out early

Tea leaves:

  • we're going to see huge retail sales well before Thanksgiving this year
  • as we near Thanksgiving the stories on evening news will accelerate, scaring people into buying early to avoid shortages

My favorite graph: pending.

Week 42: October 17, 2021 -- October 23, 2021

Top story of the week:

  • Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

CCS:

Wells:

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary: