Friday, December 21, 2018

Enerplus With Permits For A Four-Well "Ocean Storm" Pad -- December 21, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs69524265182

Four new permits:
  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Mandaree (Dunn County)
  • Comments: Enerplus has permits for a four-well "ocean storm" pad in section 7-149-93 (see graphic below);
Four permits renewed:
  • Crescent Point Energy: two Dorothy and two Doris permits, all in Williams County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34921, 300, Slawson, Whitmore 4-7-6H, Parshall, t11/18; cum -- (#17354)
  • 31781, 595, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 24-12PH, Park, t11/18; cum -- ; (#20526)
  • 31883, 748, Whiting, Hecker 14-7PHU, Bell, t11/18; cum -- ; (#23420)
  • 31780, 876, Whiting,  Pronghorn Federal 31-13PH, Park, t11/18; cum -- ; (#20504; #27691)
Enerplus "Ocean Storm" Pad

Section 7-149-93, what it looks like today:

The Enerplus "ND Winter" pads in Mandaree field are followed here.
  • 25736, 2,347, Enerplus, Snow 193-93-07A-12H, Mandaree, t6/15; cum 511K 10/18; 
  • 25735, 1,773, Enerplus, Rain 193-93-07A-12H-TF, Mandaree, t6/15; cum 340K 10/18; 
  • 35800, loc, Frost,

  • 35801, loc, Hail,
  • 35802, loc, Sleet,
  • 35803, loc, Blizzard,

  • 25738, 1,946, Enerplus, Sun 193-93-07D-12H, Mandaree, t8/14; cum 370K 10/18;
  • 25737, 1,278, Enerplus, Wind 193-93-07D-12H TF, Mandaree, t9/14; cum 327K 10/18;

The WPX Lion wells in Mandaree oil field:
  • 34960, conf, WPX, Lion,
  • 34396, conf, WPX, Lion,
  • 34397, conf, WPX, Lion,
  • 34398, conf, WPX, Lion,
  • 34399, conf, WPX, Lion,
  • 34400, conf, WPX, Lion,
  • 34401, conf, WPX, Lion,

The Market, Energy, Political Page, Part 5, T+46 -- December 21, 2018 -- NGLs PIpeline Proposed For The Bakken

Wow, keeping North Dakota great! From The Bismarck Tribune: natural gas liquids (NGLs) pipeline proposed for northwest North Dakota -- in other words, the heart of the Bakken. Wow! From the linked article:
  • ONEOK: seeking permit
  • Demicks Lake Pipeline Project
    • 77-mile-long pipeline
    • at $1 million/mile = $77 million estimate
    • the company says: $125 million
    • seventy-five miles inside state of ND
    • includes nine miles under the Little Missouri National Grassland with existing infrastructure
  • from a processing plant under construction in McKenzie County
    • Demicks Lake I and Demicks Lake II: both under construction northeast of Watford City
    • would add a total processing capacity of 400 million cfpd
    • Demicks Lake I should be completed by 4Q19
  • 40,000 bbls of NGLs/day from Watford City area to Richland County, MT
  • Elk Creek Pipeline will be constructed in Richland County (would that be Sidney, MT?)
    • Elk Creek pipeline under construction, from Sidney, MT, to Bushton, Kansas: capacity - 240,000 bpd
  • seventy-five miles inside state of ND
  • both pipelines would transport Y-grade natural gas liquids; transported together, separated later; see this RBN Energy on Y-grade NGLs;
  • there are no reservations along the planned route
  • there was no mention of sage grouse
  • "existing infrastructure" always has a nice ring to it
The Bismarck Tribune link here.

The Elk Creek pipeline:
The $125 million project will connect with the Elk Creek Pipeline, a 900-mile pipeline under construction to transport natural gas liquids from Sidney, Montana, to Bushton, Kansas.
Wow, keeping the highways great! From The Bismarck Tribune:
Owners of electric and hybrid vehicles in North Dakota would pay an annual fee to make up for lost gas tax revenue under a bill crafted by a Grand Forks lawmaker.
Republican state Sen. Curt Kreun said his proposal would help balance the scales between owners of traditional gas guzzlers who help fund road improvements by paying fuel taxes and drivers of more environmentally friendly vehicles who use those same roads. Under his bill, electric vehicle owners would face an annual $248 “road use fee” and hybrid drivers would see a $71 annual bill.
The fee amounts were calculated using average fuel economy and annual mileage figures. If passed, the electric vehicle fee would be the largest among the 20 states that already impose one, said Kevin Pula, a senior policy specialist with the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Comment: Wow, that's all "we" pay for all those great roads in North Dakota? Seventy-one dollars a year? Another bargain.
Wow, keeping America great! From Rigzone:
Seaway Crude Oil Pipeline Co. LLC kicked off a binding open season Friday to gauge shipper support to additional crude oil capacity on its existing pipeline system from Cushing, Okla., to the Texas Gulf Coast.
According to Seaway, the expansion could provide approximately 100,000 barrels per day of incremental capacity available by Feb. 1, 2019.

The Market, Energy, Political Page, Part 4, T+46 -- December 21, 2018

Government shutdown? My wife is worried about the possibility of a government shutdown. How many of these have we been through? Well, not at Christmas! LOL.

Government workers get paid either once monthly (the last day of the month/first day of the following month; or, twice a month (including the last day of the month/first day of the following month). If the "government" shuts down tonight, those checks are already in the mail -- if not, it's going to be one heck of a mess. But I assume the full checks will be in the mail next week even for those furloughed. Then, two weeks later, pay will be taken out if there is/was a government shutdown.

Meanwhile, the paperwork is already on government employees' desk to complete for unemployment insurance. The first insurance check will arrive before the first government check mid-month, and well before the end-of-month government check.

And, the government employees all get their back pay when they come back to work. It's not automatic; Congress has to approve it, but it has for all previous shutdowns; this one won't be any different.

What is this called? A paid vacation. Over the biggest holiday of the year for US workers.

Celebrated a bit too soon. I remember very clearly the exchange in the Oval Office among President Trump, Senator Schumer, and Ms Pelosi. Ms Pelosi clearly said -- multiple times -- that the house did not have the votes for funding the wall (wrong). Schumer smirked, and President Trump clearly made it clear that he "would wear a government shutdown on his mantel" or something to that effect. He clearly said he "owned" it. Of course, now Trump says the Democrats own the shutdown. That's fine.

SecDef: it looks like folks are lining up at the door to get this job.

Khashoggi: we know how SecState Pompeo felt about this event; did Mattis ever speak publicly about it? I don't know.

Departing Syria: my wife is furious that the US is pulling out of Syria. Did you support Trump when he sent US troops into Syria in the first place? Of course not. Welcome to my world.

Dems worst nightmare: RBG in hospital; lung cancer surgery.

Health fine: one week ago, the mainstream media was writing that RBG's health was "fine." Now, the US House is going to have to act quickly to impeach President Trump, hoping that the US Senate will find him guilty, before he can "pack the court" with yet another -- his third -- supreme court justice.

Beto--mania: didn't play in rural Texas. Why Beto flopped in Texas. From the Statesman.
“All you have to do is get in the presence of him and it’s contagious, especially if you’re a woman because he’s so danged good looking,” said Randall, who is 79 and has lived in the county for 25 years. “The charisma just emits.”
When O’Rourke came to McCulloch County, population 7,957, and neighboring San Saba County, population 5,959, for well-attended town halls on April 6, Randall was his guide.

They were stops 231 and 232 of O’Rourke’s tour of all 254 counties, and, Randall wrote at the time, “It was one of the most exciting, enlightening and hopeful days of my life.”
Seven months later, O’Rourke won just 400 votes in McCulloch County, or 15 percent of the vote.
That was half a percentage point less than Hillary Clinton received in 2016, 3 points less than Barack Obama’s total in 2012 and 9 points less than Obama’s tally in 2008.
O’Rourke’s 11.9 percent of the vote in San Saba County told the same story.
Rural Texas, it seems, was immune to Betomania, or, more accurately, it had symptoms of both the phenomenon and the antibodies creating a rural firewall that saved U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, from defeat.
The Book Page

Somewhere along the line I picked up Remembering America: A Voice from the Sixties, Richard N. Goodwin, c. 1988, with a new introduction dated, 2014, which will extend the copyright.

I must have thought it would be a great book, looking back on the 60s. Unfortunately Remembering America was written by a JFK apologist. That alone tells me the author and I would be watching different movies. That's okay. But then to see the frequent citations from the Washington Post -- those folks were definitely watching a different movie.

I checked the index: Marilyn Monroe was not in the index (but "Monroe Doctrine" was). "Mafia" was not in the index. But "PT-109" was.

Richard Godowin would have had a great story to tell. Unfortunately he wasn't able to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth at least based on the first 100 pages.

The Market, Energy, Political Page, Part 3, T+46 -- December 21, 2018

Loony tunes: Don wrote early this morning: This is the first time I have seen the value of the loonie below $0.74.
  • Canadian dollar: $0.7373.
Don follows this stuff closer than I do and has been following it longer than I have, so he would know. [Actually, the loonie has been lower and it has been trading in a range for the past couple of years, but Don's point is well taken -- the Loonie says Canada is closed to business.]

I remember going to Canada when I was a Boy Scout -- best part of trip -- buying Canadian toffee and I remember how much one could get for an American dollar. My introduction to global finance. Laugh. Had I paid attention, I might have beat George Soros. LOL. See this note from July 26, 2016. Wow, I wrote some "good stuff" back in the day. Not so much any more, it appears.

Loony tunes: I have no trouble "understanding" the gyrations of the stock market. What I do not understand is how economists (not Trump) can go from talking about a GDP of 6% just six months ago to a recession six months from now. Feels like a lot of manipulation going on. But that's fine. If so, this, too, will burn itself out. Meanwhile, some folks are going to do very, very well -- as usual. [Later: perhaps US market manipulation is "our" equivalent of the "Yellow Vest" movement in France, which, by the way, appears to have burned itself out.]

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Speaking of travel: this from the Drudge Report. I did not click on the link; I have not read the article. Simply the screenshot:

LOL. Ninety-nine percent of young folks, when asked why they don't want to join the military, cite "frequent moves" as one of the top ten reasons why they don't want to enlist.

When we returned to the US, back in 1997, after thirteen consecutive years overseas we were surprised that some folks had never lived anywhere other than the county they were currently living in. Most had never even lived in more two different homes. And those that had -- generally same town/city if not the same neighborhood.

Our first stateside posting after returning to the US was LA: lower Alabama.

When our older daughter said she had just moved from Turkey, one of her classmates thought that was a city in northern Alabama; she was asked if they had a mall in Turkey, Alabama. I kid you not. For me, moving from Texas to California would be "living abroad." Same with folks moving from Boston to Texas. Or Nebraska to Portland (Oregon). Bernie won't even move back to Russia.

But if a third did leave, that would leave a lot of room for all those migrants that want to come in. But LOL, a third of Americans "thinking about leaving the US to live abroad." Maybe I misread -- the screenshot simply says "country." Maybe the article is about Venezuela. Or Honduras.

Time For A Bit Of Organ Music

E. Power Biggs

The Market, Energy, Political Page, Part 2, T+46 -- December 21, 2018

Hess: from The Williston Herald -- this will load as a pdf -- huge thanks to a reader -- I'll look for another link later ... here it is, at Natural Gas Intel ....

  • global 2019 CAPEX: $2.9 billion
  • US 2019 CAPEX: $1.87 billion
  • Bakken: will ramp up to six rigs to produce 145,000 bopd in the Bakken
Tipping point: the other day I suggested the "Yellow Vests" was the tipping point in Europe. That movie is yet to play out. We have probably only seen the "trailer." Now this from a reader this morning, from Ice Age Now -- Germany's green transition has a hit a brick wall. Let's see what "Robert" has to say. To much to quote, but well worth a read.

Data points: these are the data points from that "Germany has hit a wall...."
  • $550 billion on wind, soar, and biofuel
  • legal commitments: an additional $775 billion by 2022
    • simple arithmetic: $550 billion + $775 billion = a big number followed by a lot of zeroes
  • not dispatchable; killing the utility industry
  • some days, makes to much electricity Germany sells it at a loss to France -- "load shedding"
  • Germans pay France to take their electricity
  • subsidies: solar/wind are paid (by German users) 90% of rated output whether or not their electricity is needed
  • subsidies: conventional utilities also paid if forced to disconnect due to too much wind/solar energy 
  • other days, increased coal burned to make up the solar/wind deficit
  • unlike the US, Germany has not reduced CO2 emissions in the last ten years
  • Germany produces 27% of its annual power needs from wind/solar/biofuel
  • and then this: if there is a stretch of several days (one to ten days -- although I would hardly call "one day" a stretch of several days -- LOL), Germany actually pays for electricity from French nuclear reactors, or they pay Poland for electricity form coal-powered plants (sort of reminds me of California getting their electricity from coal plants in Nevada
  • Germany's wind/solar
    • 27% of Germany's electricity consumption
    • 5% of Germany's total energy needs
  • Germany's electricity rates: among the highest in the world (they can afford this because their military / defense budget is paid for by the US)
Inefficiencies: there was a great article on "inefficiencies" the other day -- renewable energy and organic farming. One can add the process of "medical referrals" to a specialist to that list. [Later, December 23, 2018: "the cost of efficiency," Harvard Business Review, on sale now.]

The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+46 -- December 21, 2018

Steel slats, wence, the wall? I guess it's back to the wall. From President Trump this morning --
The Democrats are trying to belittle the concept of a Wall, calling it old fashioned. The fact is there is nothing else’s that will work, and that has been true for thousands of years. It’s like the wheel, there is nothing better. I know tech better than anyone, & technology.....
Vince Lombardi: winners never quit and quitters never win. That was posted in the Williston High School Coyote locker room. It was probably the first sports quote I ever saw; about the only one I remember. Came to mind this morning for some reason.

New SecDefense: can hardly wait. LOL. Should be another epic performance in the US Senate.

Syria? I thought all this talk about Mattis resigning was due to the "Syria decision." Hardly. This has been discussed for months. People complain that Trump whines when he can't get is own way. It appears no one in Washington is happy if she can't get her own way. Mattis? Can't get his own way? Resigns. And writes a "nasty letter" for posterity. I thought he was a "bigger man" than that. "Mad Dog" Mattis? He must have softened over the years.

Truman: beloved president. "If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen."

Two different movies: I can't find it now -- the Baltimore Sun story that was first published in The Washington Post -- the story that examined the Mattis departure. The story referenced "Trump's loss during the 2018 mid-term elections." If I recall correctly, the president's party gained seats in the US Senate and he went 8 for 8, maybe 6 for 8. Whatever. The US House? The swing was much, much worse for Obama at same point years ago. Two different movies.

Fortunate: after reading US press in bed on the iPad before getting up, I can listen to north Texas talk radio coming into work.  

US budget: apparently some US representatives and/or US senators have already left Washington to begin their Christmas break. We'll know more when the final votes are taken to (not) shut down the government.

Notes To The Granddaughters

Thoroughly enjoyed watching The Great Gatsby and Kinky Boots yesterday.

I have to watch the movie every so often to improve my understanding of the geography of Long Island, and the surrounding area. Did I read somewhere that 2/3rds of New City City's population now lives in Queens? Something like that. Both Archie Bunker and Jay Gatsby lived in Queens. But a lot of folks moving out of NYC now, according to news story earlier this week. If so, they're all moving to north Texas.

"Sound": deeper than a bight and wider than a fjord. Wow, that's succinct. I knew what fjord was, but what's a bight? From wiki:
It is distinguished from a sound by being shallower. Traditionally, explorers defined a bight as a bay that could be sailed out of on a single tack in a square-rigged sailing vessel, regardless of the direction of the wind (typically meaning the apex of the bight is less than 25 degrees from the edges). 
On the continuum of such things, then, we have the bight, the sound, and the fjord.

The sound and the fjord. Sounds like that could be a title of a great book.

I finally understand the "geography" of Yale University. 

I'm still working on the index for Karen Armstrong's biography of the Bible. I'm about halfway through but when I'm "complete," I will have to go through it again. But I'm taking a break for now. It will be awhile before I complete the project.

For Christmas break I have gone back to one of my all-time favorites, Keld Zeruneith's The Wooden Horse, c. 2007. Translated from the Danish; it occasionally shows.

After watching the 1948 Oliver Twist, I think I need to read either that book or A Tale of Two Cities. I've read neither. But now, my curiosity is piqued. A trip to Half-Price Bookstores, I guess.

Mexico's Refineries Struggle To Reach 30% Operating Capacity -- RBN Energy -- December 21, 2018

Maria Energy: eastern Atlantic, approaching Strait of Gibralter. Tracking here. Original story here. Destination: TBC (to be confirmed). 

East Coast states to block seismic surveys in Atlantic. From Bloomberg. What can I say?

US Gulf of Mexico on track for historic 2019. From Rigzone. What can I say?

Venezuela:gasoline shortages grip the nation's capital. From Bloomberg. What can I say?

Refining capacity:
  • US routinely operates between 89% and 96% capacitiy.
  • Mexico? struggles to operate at 30% capacity -- wow, I did not know it was that bad
    • how does the new president plan to fix that? build a new refinery -- see below
  • Venezuela? I assume it's close to 0%. But I don't know.
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, December 21, 2018:
  • 34942, SI/NC, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36CR, Bear Den, no production data, 
  • 34922, SI/NC, Slawson, Whitmore 3-7-6H, Parshall, no production data, see more on the Whitmore wells at this post;
  • 29793, 1,634, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H-3, Werner, completion report not yet available at NDIC, but FracFocus: 9.3 million gallons of water; 91% water -- typical Bakken frack, t11/18; cum --
Geology; from the file report #29793 --
The Cook 146-93-24-13H-3 target objective is the Middle Bakken Formation. Offset wells used for correlation include the Cook 146-93-24-13H-1 and Cook 146-93-24-13H-2.
The, Hunt Exploration team identifies three main sequences within the Middle Bakken.
The first is identified as the “Hot Dolomite” (top of Middle Bakken to the (BGRM) base of gamma marker) set to a thickness of 14 feet.
The second interval (not always present) is interpreted as a cleaner “shoal” deposit (below the base of the gamma ray maker and above the third sequence) with varying thickness.
The third sequence is identified as the “Mottled Dolomite” (base of gamma ray marker to top of the Lower Bakken Shale) set to a thickness of 28 feet.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs69524265182

RNB Energy: part 3, Mexico's plan to revive their crude oil refining sector. Archived.
While U.S. refineries are again running hot and heavy after the end of this year’s seasonal fall maintenance period, Mexico’s refineries have continued to struggle to operate at more than 30% of their capacity, a decline that is exacerbated by that country’s tumbling oil production.
In recent years, Mexico’s dismal refinery utilization rate has been a boon for U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast who can ship, pipe or truck gasoline to America’s southern neighbor in short order. Now, Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is pushing to solve Mexico’s refinery problems by building a new one. Today, we discuss Mexico’s growing dependence on U.S. gasoline, and whether building a new refinery south of the border will change things.
Mexican crude production has fallen sharply in the past 10 years. At 1.76 MMb/d in October 2018, total output is less than half what it was in 2005. 
It’s worth noting here that the majority of that crude — nearly 61% of the 1.76 MMb/d total in October — is categorized as “heavy” or low in API gravity, according to Mexico’s state-run oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). 
Much like Pemex’s oil production rates, refining rates have collapsed, too. And to make matters even worse, Mexico’s refineries are relatively simple — that is, not complex — and configured to process lighter, sweeter crudes, the exact quality that’s getting harder and harder to come by in Mexico. AMLO has a plan to revive oil output alongside refinery rates — he presented a national oil production plan in Campeche last week, in which he pledged to boost production to 2.4 MMb/d in the next six years.