Monday, October 3, 2016

One Last Note -- And Then I'm Heading For Bed -- October 3, 2016

Regardless of what Saudi Arabia says it will do or won't do, folks need to remember that the oil industry is one of booms and busts.

The booms seem to last longer than busts.

Booms/busts can be global, regional, or local.

Booms and busts in the oil industry are unpredictable, much like atrial fibrillation, irregularly irregular.

Scanning through pages and pages of headlines (but not reading the stories) related to the oil sector, something seems to be going on in the oil industry right now suggesting that the downtown that began in the late summer of 2014, might be ending. (I did not say the price of oil would go over $50; I just said that there are signs that the current downturn might be ending.)

If there are hints that the downtown might be ending, one can count on Goldman Sachs to try to talk it "down."

The current global downturn is now more than two years old, and not many things in economics last more than two years. Yes, there are exceptions, like Japan's stagnant economy and the two lost decades of George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

To clarify because some will say this is obvious, as in "well, duh." This is the point: what happens next  with regard to the oil sector will happen regardless of what Saudi says or does. Saudi Arabia is not irrelevant but global "forces" are such that Saudi Arabia is in a "reactive posture" rather than a pro-active posture.

The other point: a year ago, folks felt "we" needed to see $60-oil to see things improve in the oil patch; there are indications that $50-oil for on-shore US operators is "just fine" depending on the trend. The interactive chart at this site might be relevant.

The Bubble Gum Trading Card Page
First Official Photographs Of Future Soccer Star

Two photos are posted because I could not decide which I liked better. Sophia is in her soccer uniform; she has soccer practice three times a week. She is two years, three months old. She plays for the Tutor Time Tykes. I'm not exactly sure what position she plays, except to say, she is generally somewhere on the field.

Williston's Wal-Mart May Lead Company In Annual Fundraising Campaign -- October 3, 2016

The Williston Herald data points:
  • Williston Wal-Mart is leading the company's fundraising campaign for Children's Miracle Network hospitals
  • spokesman predicts that Williston Wal-Mart will be the top contributor to Wal-Mart's national fundraising campaign
  • at height of oil boom in Williston, Wal-Mart "hardly" reached $40,000 during the annual campaign
  • for 2016, Williston Wal-Mart set ambitious goal: $50,000
When I was out in Williston last week, I stopped by Wal-Mart. Some observations:
  • the road was under construction (again) to make it wider for all the traffic
  • the lot was not overflowing, but it was full
  • there were no RVs or evidence of folks living in the parking lot
  • a sign upon entering Wal-Mart: hiring; starting wage: $15/hour
  • the store was in incredibly good shape; clean; well-stocked; very, very friendly staff
The Williston Tunnel

Extending the growing season in North Dakota. From The Williston Herald.

Just An Observation -- Some Great Whiting Wells Being Taken Off-Line -- October 3, 2016

Tonight I was in the process of updating some production numbers for wells drilled back in 2010 and 2011. First I noticed one well, and then another, and before I knew it, I had several great Whiting wells that were on-line "every day" (with the usual trivial exceptions) through July, 2016, and then abruptly taken off-line in August, 2016 -- not one day on-line in August, not one barrel of oil produced in August, 2016. I was updating wells with good production numbers. I probably updated 30 wells, and the following popped up:

October 8, 2016: the three incredible Whiting Flatland Federal wells in Twin Valley went off-line in July, 2016: three huge Whiting wells (#27520, #27521, #27522).


January 7, 2017: either I made an error, or data was updated at NDIC. None of these wells were taken off-line 9/16. None of these wells have been taken off line.

Original Post

October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016:
October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016:
October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016:
  • 18724, 1,251, WLL, Foreman 11-4TFH, Sanish, Bakken, t6/10; cum 247K 7/16; taken off-line 8/16;
October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016:
  • 18639, 2,309, WLL, Iverson 21-14H, Sanish, Bakken, t6/10; cum 419K 7/16; taken off-line 8/16; 
October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016:
  • 18295, 1,260, Whiting/KOG, Moccasin Creek 16-3-11H, Moccasin Creek, 1 sec, t2/10; cum 435K 7/16; taken off-line all of 8/16;
And then this one, a stand-alone post earlier. This well was inactive for several months, then came back on-line, only to come back off line as of 8/16 (update, this one was not taken off-line -- either I made a mistake, unlikely, or NDIC updated data):

  • 18507, 1,946, WLL, Lahti 24-22H, Sanish, Bakken, t6/10; cum 513K 11/16;
Just an observation. I will follow up on these wells in a few months.

Back On Line Only To Come Back Off Line -- October 3, 2016

This well was inactive for awhile but then back on-line, only to come back off status as of 8/16:
  • 18507, 1,946, WLL, Lahti 24-22H, Sanish, Bakken, t6/10; cum 497K 8/16;
The last sundry report was received September 26, 2011, so nothing in file to explain the production profile. 

Production data for last couple of years:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Update On Wind Farm Projects In Western North Dakota -- October 3, 2016

On my trip back to North Dakota last weekend, I saw wind turbines being transported south to Hebron, North Dakota, and saw towers being raised at the Lindahl Wind Project north of Tioga.

Towers, nacelles, and blades are all being staged out of Red River Oilfield Services east of Williston.

For the Tioga project, the components are being brought from Red River (Williston) to the Pinnacle Truck Stop south of Tioga, staged there, until the cranes are ready for them.

Data points, quickly and briefly.

Sunflower Wind Project
  • south of Hebron, ND
  • up to 55 wind turbines in Morton County
  • 25 wind turbines in Stark County
  • Vestas or GE
  • approved July 8, 2014
  • $180 million project
  • 110 MW
  • $1.6 million / MW
  • Basin Electric will purchase 
  • components from China
Lindahl Wind Project
Two videos of staging area at Red River Oilfield Services, east of Williston:



Turn down / off the volume of the videos below.

Two videos of staging area at Pinnacle Truck Stop south of Tioga, ND:



Oil Closes Just Shy Of $50 -- October 3, 2016

Link here. Despite OPEC "cut" -- US oil may not top $50 ceiling until next year -- Investor's Business Daily.

Today: WTI closed just below $50 at $49.25. 

Several comments:
  • first, there is no "cut"; there's hardly even an agreement
  • second, not much difference between $50.01 and $49.25
  • third, why is "everyone" so concerned about oil going higher? Californians certainly don't want to pay more for gasoline
  • fourth, didn't Goldman Sachs (and many others) say we were headed back to $20 oil based on supply and demand?
The Daily Activity Report

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3368188185188

Wells coming off confidential well Tuesday:
  • 32323, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-11, Alkali Creek, no production data
Three new permits:
  • Operators: Crescent Point Energy (2), EOG
  • Fields: Little Muddy (Williams); Clarks Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comment: the EOG Clarks Creek permit is Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, SWSW 7-151-94; there are no 9 permits on this pad, running north - south which is an interesting configuration considering the wells are most likely spaced on the 2580-acre stand-up unit
Fourteen permits renewed:
  • QEP (4): four MHA well permits, all in Dunn County
  • QEP (3): three Moberg well permits, all in McKenzie County
  • Newfield (2): two Moberg Federal permits, both in McKenzie County
  • EOG (2): a Liberty LR well in Mountrail County; and a Hardscrabble well in Williams County
  • SHD (2): a Rocky well permit and a Mufasa well permit, both in McLean County
  • Oasis: a O M Erickson well permit in Williams County
Two permits canceled:
  • HRC: a Hagbos permit in Williams County
  • MRO: a Tucker permit in Dunn County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31371, 397, XTO, Sara 41X-13G, Grinnell, t8/16; cum -- 
  • 31372, 524, XTO, Sara 41X-13D, Grinnell, t8/16; cum -- 
  • 31372, 525, XTO, Sara 41X-13H, Grinnell, t8/16; cum --

MRO Sells More Assets In West Texas, New Mexico -- October 3, 2016

From BizJournals. Data points:
  • West Texas and New Mexico
  • $235 million
  • undisclosed buyer
  • number of acres not disclosed in this article (or several other articles reporting same story)
  • properties producing about 4,000 boepd
The Apple Microsoft Page

Microsoft will drop the "wearable band." It will join the Zune.

I honestly did not know that Microsoft even had a "wearable band."


The list will grow.

California, Illinois, Chicago saying sayonara to Wells Fargo. 

Gut check for Warren whose avuncular personality effuses integrity.

Don't Even Get Me Started
Evergreen In The Red
Will Try to Go Green By Becoming a For-Profit Co-op

From The Washington Post -- Maryland's ObamaCare health co-op will switch to for-profit to save itself -- something Donald Trump would have recommended, no doubt. Data points:
  • originally 23 of these ObamaCare health co-ops
  • then down to 6
  • now, the Maryland co-op will become a "for-profit"
  • Evergreen Health -- Maryland's version of these ObamaCare co-ops
  • as The Washington Post says: "Evergreen's unprecedented move will leave standing only five of the 23 co-ops which started nearly three years ago."
  • the other 17 have either collapsed or been ordered to close by state regulators
  • a co-op in Minnesota, last week, announced it was getting an infusion from investors and will remain open as a nonprofit

Random Update On An Old Vertical Lodgepole Well -- October 3, 2016

This well  has produced more than 700,000 bbls of oil; was drilled back in 2009, is a conventional (vertical) well; nothing in the file report to suggest any recent activity:
  • 18190, 463, Armstrong, Laurine Engel 1, conventional, Dickinson, Lodgepole; 61,000 barrels in first five months (at $60 = $3.6 million and this is a conventional well); cum 739K 8/16;
Production profile for past year or so:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Back On Status? An EOG Cottonwood Well That Looked To Be Permanently Plugged Back On Status? -- October 3, 2016

This well:
  • 17850, 487, EOG, Cottonwood 2-35H (1 sec), wells have not been good in this field; Cottonwood, t8/09; cum 132K 9/15; in active as of 9/15; back on status as of 7/16; cum 134K 8/16;
The two most recent sundry forms were received August 3, 2016, and April 29, 2016. Prior to that, one had to go back to the 2009 for information on this well. 

A sundry form received August 3, 2016: workover rig was pulling pipe that had emulsion in it.

A sundry form received April 29, 2016: the well has been shut in for the previous year due to equipment failure. The cost to replace the equipment to bring the well back on production would make the well uneconomical to produce at current oil prices. Company requests a waiver to plug and reclaim an abandoned well....

It should be noted that there are no other "new" wells in this area. This is the only well in this section (35-157-92).

Production profile for past year and a half or so:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Production profile for first six months:

Mike Filloon Is Exactly Right -- October 3, 2016

Link over at Seeking Alpha. Summary:
  • OPEC thought it could destroy shale production in the United States, but several mistakes led it to the current understanding with other OPEC members
  • The Saudis know that this will buy more time for OPEC producers, by placing a floor in oil prices until we get closer to a supply/demand balance
  • The supply glut is not going away, and we should get use to lower for longer as there are many producers capable of economic returns below $60/bbl
  • The Saudis continue to control OPEC, but at this point little else
For more on the "OPEC freeze," click here

New Wells -- 4Q16

New data, for a new quarter, will begin on October 1, 2016.

Data for 1Q17: 1Q17
Data for 4Q16: this page 
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10

Saturday, December 31, 2016: 45 for the month; 117 for the quarter
  • None.
Friday, December 30, 2016: 45 for the month; 117 for the quarter
  • 31332, 235 (no typo), Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 9B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t6/16; cum 284K 9/20;
  • 31892, 1,717, Hess, BB-Sivertson-151-95-2019H-6, Blue Buttes, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t11/16; cum 231K 9/20;
  • 32629, 219, SM Energy, Selle 4B-4HN, West Ambrose, t9/16; cum 164K 9/20;
Thursday, December 29, 2016: 42 for the month; 114 for the quarter
  • 29559, 19 (no typo), Equinor/Statoil, Heinz 18-19 6H, Patent Gate, t1/18; cum 165K 9/20;
  • 31893, 1,523, Hess, BB-Siverston-151-95-2019H-7, Blue Buttes, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t12/16; cum 282K 9/20;
  • 32221, 962, XTO, Little Pete Federal 31X-3HXE2, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 279K 9/20;
Wednesday, December 28, 2016: 42 for the month; 114 for the quarter
  • 29692, 2,273, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H3, Epping, Three Forks, 30 stages, 7 million lbs, t7/16; cum 242K 9/20;
  • 29693, 2,471, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H, Epping, 39 stages, 10 million lbs, t7/16; cum 310K 12/18;
  • 31891, 1,506, Hess, BB-Siverston-LS-151-95-2019H-1, Blue Buttes, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t12/16; cum 310K 1/20;
Tuesday, December 27, 2016: 39 for the month; 111 for the quarter
  • 29557, 57 (no typo), Equinor/Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6-4H, Sakakawea, t1/18; cum 146K 9/20;
  • 31331, 648, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 8T2,  Three Forks second bench, 36 stages, 4 million lbs; Siverston, t6/16; cum 177K 12/18;
Monday, December 26, 2016: 37 for the month; 109 for the quarter;
29694, 2,413, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-2H, Epping, 30 stages, 7.2 million lbs, 7/16; cum 223K 12/18;
32713, 3,527, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 5H, Patent Gate, t1/18; cum 168K 1/20;

Sunday, December 25, 2016: 35 for the month; 107 for the quarter
28239, 1,124, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 145-97-20C-17-5H, Little Knife, t11/16; cum 177K 12/18;
32714, 2,878, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 XE 1H, Poe, t2/18; cum 81K 1/20;

Saturday, December 24, 2016: 33 for the month; 105 for the quarter
  • 31330, 527, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 7B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t6/16; cum 223K 12/18;
  • 32137, 990, EOG, Ross 106-0915H, Alger, 52 stages, 15.66 million lbs, t2/17; cum1 215K 9/20;
Friday, December 25, 2016: 31 for the month; 103 for the quarter
  • None.
Thursday, December 22, 2016: 31 for the month; 103 for the quarter
29560, 116, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 4H, Patent Gate, t12/17; cum 103K 12/18;
31329, 628, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 6T, Siverston, 36 stages, 3.9 million lbs, t6/16; cum 167K 1/20;

Wednesday, December 21, 2016: 29 for the month; 101 for the quarter
32711, IA/284, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 3H, Patent Gate, t12/17; cum 69K 10/18;

Tuesday, December 20, 2016: 28 for the month; 100 for the quarter
29558, 313, Equinor/Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 2H, Sakakawea, t12/17; cum 189K 9/20;
32138, 1,352, EOG, Ross 42-0915H, Alger, 45 stages, 11.6 million lbs, t2/17; cum 103K 9/17;

Monday, December 19, 2016: 26 for the month; 98 for the quarter
  • None.
Sunday, December 18, 2016: 26 for the month; 98 for the quarter
29561, 492, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 2H, Patent Gate, t12/17; cum 118K 1/20;
31280, 1,612, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-5, Alkali Creek, Three Forks, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t10/16; cum 134K 9/17;

Saturday, December 17, 2016: 24 for the month; 96 for the quarter
31281, 746, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-6, Alkali Creek, middle Bakken, 57 stages, 4 million lbs, t11/16; cum 3K after 3 days; cum 231K 1/20;
32140, 854, EOG, Ross 43-0915H, Alger, 46 stages, 14 million lbs, t2/17; cum 200K 1/20;
32710, 352, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 XW 1H, Camp, t12/17; cum 131K 10/19;

Friday, December 16, 2016: 21 for the month; 93 for the quarter
31919, 1,413, Oasis, Johnsrud Federal 5198 11-18 3BX, North Tobacco Garden, 4 sections, 50 stages, 20 million lbs, t6/16; cum 490K 9/20;
32707, 296, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21EXH, Heart Butte, t9/17; cum 13K 9/17;
32709, 316, Statoil, Heinz 1819 XW 1H, Alexander, t11/17; cum 53K 8/18;
Thursday, December 15, 2016: 18 for the month; 90 for the quarter
31282, 1,346, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-7, Alkali Creek, t11/16; cum 214K 1/20;

Wednesday, December 14, 2016: 18 for the month; 90 for the quarter
32340, 2,010, Whiting, Carscallen31-14-4H, Truax, 45 stages, 13.6 million lbs, t7/16; cum 389K 1/20;

Tuesday, December 13, 2016: 17 for the month; 89 for the quarter
31283, 1,421, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-8, Alkali Creek, t11/16; cum 243K 11/18;
32591, 1,567, Sinclair, Lizzie Rae 8-17-1H, Lone Butte, 37 stages, 4.4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 95K 11/18;

Monday, December 12, 2016: 15 for the month; 87 for the quarter

Sunday, December 11, 2016: 15 for the month; 87 for the quarter
32339, IA/1,556, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-3H, Truax, the Carscallen wells are followed here; 45 stages, 8.2 million lbs; t7/16; cum 68K 11/18;
32417, IA/257, EOG, Austin 421-2821H,  Parshall, 44 stages; 17 million lbs, t6/16; cum 367K 11/18; off line since 4/19; short exceptions;

Saturday, December 10, 2016: 13 for the month; 85 for the quarter
31327, 733, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 4T2, Siverston, 36 stages 4 million lbs, t6/16; cum 185K 11/18;
31328, 714, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 5B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t6/16; cum 247K 9/20;
32368, 1,764, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-2H, Turax, 4 sections, 45 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t7/16; cum 341K 11/18;

Friday, December 9, 2016: 10 for the month; 82 for the quarter
32338, 1,734, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14H, Truax, 4 sections, s1/30/16; TD, 2/10/16; API: 33-105-04227; t7/16; cum 294K 11/18;

Thursday, December 8, 2016: 9 for the month; 81 for the quarter
32418, 681, EOG, Austin 422-2821H, Parshall, 42 stages, 16 million lbs, t6/16; cum 471K 9/20;
32419, 678, EOG, Austin 423-2821H, Parshall, 32 stages, 12 million lbs; t6/16; cum 312K 11/18;

Wednesday, December 7, 2016: 7 for the month; 79 for the quarter

Tuesday, December 6, 2016: 7 for the month; 79 for the quarter

Monday, December 5, 2016: 7 for the month; 79 for the quarter

Sunday, December 4, 2016: 7 for the month; 79 for the quarter
32366, 1,735, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 21X-3B-N, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 105K 11/18;

Saturday, December 3, 2016: 6 for the month; 78 for the quarter
32367, 1,905, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 21X-3F2-N, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 86K 11/18;

Friday, December 2, 2016: 5 for the month; 77 for the quarter
32378, 2,540, XTO, Werre Trust 21X-3B, Bear Creek, t6/18; cum 162K 11/18;

Thursday, December 1, 2016: 4 for the month; 76 for the quarter
31249, TA/127, EOG, West Clark 201-01SWD, Clarks Creek, Three Forks, 2 stages, 800K lbs proppant, t6/16, cum -- ; but note the name of the well; from the sundry form: perf'd and frack'd two (2) stages; noted a pressure drop at end of stage 2; determined that casing "part" at the collar with slight casing offset; as a result it was decided to not attempt to continue on with fracking operations due to operational risks associated with a reduced I.D. (internal diameter?) from a casing patch
32217, 812, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3G2, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 19K 9/17;
32218, 888, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3D, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 19K 9/17;
32379, 1,112 (fracked 11/26/17 - 1/29/2018, XTO, Werre Trust 21X-3E, Bear Creek, 40K 11/18;

Wednesday, November 30, 2016: 29 for the month; 72 for the quarter
27431, 3,163, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-3H, Eagle Nest, 34 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t6/16; cum 237K 11/18;
32219, 816, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3H, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 340K 9/20;
32380, 2,637, XTO, Werre Trust 21X-3A, Bear Creek, t8/18; cum 118K 11/18;

Tuesday, November 29, 2016: 26 for the month; 69 for the quarter

Monday, November 28, 2016: 26 for the month; 69 for the quarter
27433, 3,039, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-4H, Eagle Nest, 34 stages, 5.2 million lbs, t6/16; cum 177K 11/18;
32220, IA/1,080, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3DXA, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 178K 11/18; off line as of 7/18;

Sunday, November 27, 2016: 25 for the month; 68 for the quarter
29082, 2,397, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HA, Reunion Bay, 40 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 285K 11/18;

Saturday, November 26, 2016: 24 for the month; 67 for the quarter
26974, 1,269, Petro-Hunt, Kostelnak 145-97-29B-32-2H, 50 stages, 4.9 million lbs, t11/16; cum 119K 11/18;
27435, 3,397, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-5H, Eagle Nest, 33 stages, 5 million lbs, t6/16; cum 199K 11/18;

Friday, November 25, 2016: 22 for the month; 65 for the quarter
29081, 1,830, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HW, Reunion Bay, geologist report says Three Forsk; frack says TF, 38 stages, 5.9 million lbs, t12/16; cum 266K 11/18;

Thursday, November 24, 2016: 21 for the month; 64 for the quarter
30653, 1,755, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HT, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 233K 11/18;

Wednesday, November 23, 2016: 20 for the month; 63 for the quarter
  • None
Tuesday, November 22, 2016: 20 for the month; 63 for the quarter
  • None.
Monday, November 21, 2016: 20 for the month; 63 for the quarter
  • None.
Sunday, November 20, 2016: 20 for the month; 63 for the quarter
  • None.
Saturday, November 19, 2016 (data here): 20 for the month; 63 for the quarter
  • 30564, 2,695, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C_14-10H, Eagle Nest,, 34 stages, 5.1 million lbs;  t5/16; cum 214K 11/18;
  • 31247, 1,613, EOG, West Clark 103-0136H, Clarks Creek, 37 stages, 21.1 million lbs, s12/10/15; TD, 12/20/15; TVD, 10,552 feet; TD, 17,965 feet; again, only a 1.5 section lateral; 960-acre spacing; middle Bakken; t5/16; cum 189K 11/18;
  • Friday, November 18, 2016: 18 for the month; 61 for the quarter
  • 27434, 2,738, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-9H, Eagle Nest, Three Forks, 34 stages, 5.1 million lbs; t5/16; cum 193K 11/18;
  • 31403, 1,447, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs, t5/16; cum 331K 9/20;
Thursday, November 17, 2016: 16 for the month; 59 for the quarter
31248, 1,272, EOG, West Clark 104-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 21 million lbs, t5/16; cum 185K 11/18;
31945, 392, Enerplus, Fire 151-94-16DH, Clarks Creek, t2/17; cum 301K 11/18; frack data not yet scanned in; 1/17;

Wednesday, November 16, 2016: 14 for the month; 57 for the quarter
31944, 972, Enerplus, Water 151-04-16DH-TF, Antelope, s5/13/16; TD5/23/16; t11/16; cum 173K 11/18;
27432, 3,416, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-8H, Eagle Nest, 34 stages; 5.1 million lbs, t5/16; cum 251K 11/18; huge jump in neighboring well, #20172, at time of this frack;

Tuesday, November 15, 2016: 12 for the month; 55 for the quarter
  • 31943, 690, Enerplus, Furlong 151-94-21A-28H, Antelope, t2/17; cum 290K 11/18;
Monday, November 14, 2016: 11 for the month; 54 for the quarter
  • None.
Sunday, November 13, 2016: 11 for the month; 54 for the quarter
  • None.
Saturday, November 12, 2016: 11 for the month; 54 for the quarter
30007, 2,106, Enerplus Resources, Arctic 150-94-36BH, Spotted Horn, t4/17; cum 251K 11/18;

Friday, November 11, 2016: 10 for the month; 53 for the quarter

Thursday, November 10, 2016: 10 for the month; 53 for the quarter
  • None.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016: 10 for the month; 53 for the quarter
  • None.
Tuesday, November 8, 2016: 10 for the month; 53 for the quarter
31732, 1,691, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-2H, Lost Bridge, t9/16; cum 350K 11/18;
Monday, November 7, 2016: 9 for the month; 52 for the quarter
31733, 1,461, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-11H, Lost Bridge, upper Three Forks, 60.8% drilled in 15' target zone; 17.8% drilled in upper Three Forks B; and, 21.4% drilled in Three Forks A facies; t9/16; cum 318K 11/18;

Sunday, November 6, 2016: 8 for the month; 51 for the quarter 
  • None
Saturday, November 5, 2016: 8 for the month; 51 for the quarter 
31734, 1,693, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-1H, Lost Bridge, t9/16; cum 323K 11/18; 83.4% drilled 15' target zone, middle Bakken "C"; 10.9% drilled in middle Bakken "D" facies; and, 5.7% drilled in middle Bakken "B" facies;
30297, 1,385, Hess, EN-Wehrauch C-154-93-2932H-5, Robinson Lake, t10/16; cum 243K 11/18;

Friday, November 4, 2016: 6 for the month; 49 for the quarter
30298, 794, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-6, Robinson Lake, t10/16; cum 60K 9/17;
31735, 2,143, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-10H,  Lost Bridge, t9/16; cum 400K 11/18;

Thursday, November 3, 2016: 4 for the month; 47 for the quarter
30299, 1,076, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-7, Robinson Lake, t10/16; cum 84K 11/18;

Wednesday, November 2, 2016: 3 for the month; 46 for the quarter
30300, 961, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-8, Robinson Lake, t10/16; cum140K 11/18;

Tuesday, November 1, 2016: 2 for the month; 45 for the quarter
29638, 1,673, WPX, Owl Comes Out 8-9HC, Van Hook, t10/16; cum 165K 11/18;
30301, 810, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-9, Robinson Lake, t11/16; cum 181K 11/18;

Monday, October 31, 2016: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter
  • Boo-hoo! None.
Sunday, October 30, 2016: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter
30315, 791, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-10, Little Knife, t10/16; cum 148K 11/18;
31357, 1,102, CLR, Nashville 2-21H, Catwalk, 40 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/16; cum 517K 9/20;

Saturday, October 29, 2016: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter
31999, 2,004, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-34 TFH, Corral Creek, t3/17; cum 108K 11/18;
32619, 150, XTO, Johnson 31X-6FXG, Siverston, Three Forks, 40 stages, 7.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 178K 11/18; nice bump in production for parent well, #19890;

Friday, October 28, 2016: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter
29147, 470, Nine Point Energy/Triangle USA, J Garvin Jacobson 150-101-8-5-6H, Pronghorn, 31 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t4/16; cum 116K 11/18; most early months less than 30 days;
29148, 550, Triangle USA, J Garvin Jacobson 150-101-8-5-5H, Pronghorn, t4/16; cum 116K 11/18; most early months less than 30 days;
32000, 882, BR, CCU Zephry 24-34 MBH, Corral Creek, t2/17; cum 208K 11/18;

Thursday, October 27, 2016: 36 for the month; 36 for the quarter
31753, 950, CLR, Maryland 2-16H,  Catwalk, 38 stages, 8.2 million lbs, t5/16 cum 326K 11/18;
32558, 302, Petro-Hunt/SM Energy, Martin 2-4HN, Burg, t11/16; cum 71K 11/18;

Wednesday, October 26, 2016: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter
  • None.
Tuesday, October 25, 2016: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter
  • 32001, 361, BR, CCU Zephyr 24-34 TFH, Corral Creek, t2/17; cum 157K 11/18;
  • 32279, 2 (no typo), XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21G, Heart Butte, t10/17; cum 29K 11/18;
Monday, October 24, 2016: 32 for the month; 32 for the quarter
  • 31122, 811, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12-30 11T, Three Forks 1st bench, Camp, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t4/16; cum 121K 10/20;
  • 32557, 98 (no typo), Petro-Hunt/SM Energy, Russell 2B-4HS, Burg, t11/16; cum 99K 10/20;
Sunday, October 23, 2016: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter
  • 32170, 1,425, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-1H, Little Knife, t7/17; cum 320K 10/20;
Saturday, October 22, 2016: 29 for the month; 29 for the quarter
  • 27417, 2,558, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-3H, Eagle Nest, 33 stages, 5 million lbs, t5/16; cum 228K 11/18;
  • 32002, 2,117, BR, CCU Zephyr 34-34 MBH, Corral Creek, t2/17; cum 454K 8/20; from 8K to 26K per month;
  • 32614, 380, SM Energy, Lystad 1-25HS, a Three Forks well, 20 stages, 2.7 million lbs, Ambrose, t9/16; cum 84K 11/18;
Friday, October 21, 2016: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter
  • 25347, TA/5, Williston Exploration, Rocky Ridge-Fritz 1, Rocky Ridge, minimal production, last produced 63 bbls in one day back in 2/16;
  • 31123, 2,175, Oasis, Lefty 5200 12-30 9B, Camp, 36 stages; 4.1 million lbs, t4/16; cum 191K 11/18;
  • 32604, 1,529, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-8,Westberg, t9/16; cum 111K 8/20;
Thursday, October 20, 2016: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter
  • 27416, 1,672, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-4H, Eagle Nest, 33 stages, 5 million lbs, t4/16; cum 301K 10/20;
Wednesday, October 19, 2016: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter.
  • None.
Tuesday, October 18, 2016: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter
  • 27415, 3,158, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-5H, Eagle Nest, 33 stages; 5 million lbs, t4/16; cum 344K 10/20;
  • 32603, 844, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-9, Westberg, t9/16; cum 217K 10/20;
Monday, October 17, 2016: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter
  • 20376, 988, Enerplus, Fool Bear 23-34H, Antelope, t5/17; cum 259K 10/20;
  • 31124, 572, Oasis, Lefty 5200 12-30 10T, Camp, 50 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t4/15; cum 127K 10/20;
  • 31731, 1,154, Enerplus, Flyer 152-94-23DH TF, Antelope, t5/17; cum 257K 10/20;
  • 32602, 947, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-10, Westberg, t10/16; cum 255K 10/20;
Sunday, October 16, 2016: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter
  • 27414, 2,712, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-6H, Eagle Nest, 56 stages, 6.7 million lbs/ t4/16; cum 303K 10/20;distance between closest fracture initiation point and abandoned "5H" is 654 feet;
  • 32601, 834, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-11, Westberg, t10/16; cum 168K 10/20;
Saturday, October 15, 2016:15 for the month; 15 for the quarter
  • None.
Friday, October 14, 2016: 15 for the month; 15 for the quarter
  • 31119, 2,149, Oasis, Lefty 5200 12-30 7B, Camp, 50 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t4/16; cum 270K 10/20;
Thursday, October 13, 2016: 14 for the month; 14 for the quarter
  • 27412, 3,745, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-7H, Eagle Nest, 56 stages; 6.7 million lbs, t4/16; cum 301K 10/20;
  • 31313, 2,204, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-2, Antelope, Sanish, t9/16; cum 435K 10/20;
Wednesday, October 12, 2016: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter
  • 31312, 1,091, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-3, Antelope, Sanish pool, t10/16; cum 365K 10/20;
Tuesday, October 11, 2016: 11 for the month; 11 for the quarter
  • 31120, 907, Oasis, Lefty 5200 12-30 8T, Camp. 50 stages, 8.9 million lbs, t4/16; cum 100K 10/20;
  • 31311, 1,903, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-4, Antelope, Sanish pool, t10/16; cum 385K 10/20;
Monday, October 10, 2016: 9 for the month; 9 for the quarter
  • 31188, 3,752, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-8H, Eagle Nest, 56 stages, 6.7 million lbs, t4/16; cum 501K 10/20; see this note;
31310, 1,179, Hess, AN-Brenna-LW-153-94-1310H-1, Antelope, Sanish pool, t9/16; cum 406K 10/20;

Sunday, October 9, 2016: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter
  • None.
Saturday, October 8, 2016: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter
  • None.
Friday, October 7, 2016: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter
  • 31121, 1,374, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12-30 10B, Camp, 36 stages, 20 million lbs, t4/16; cum 235K 10/20;
  • 32320, 583, EOG, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-8, Alkali Creek, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t9/16; cum 137K 10/20;
Thursday, October 6, 2016: 5 for the month; 5 for the quarter
  • 32321, 1,026, Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-9, Alkali Creek, t9/16; cum 303K 10/20;
Wednesday, October 5, 2016: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter
  • 32322, 1,638, Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-10, Alkali Creek, t9/6; cum 246K 10/20;
Tuesday, October 4, 2016: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter
  • None. 
Monday, October 3, 2016: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter
  • None.
Sunday, October 2, 2016: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter
32324, 1,325, Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-12, Alkali Creek, t9/16; cum 307K 10/20;

Saturday, October 1, 2016: 1 for the month; 1 for the quarter
32325, AB-->IA/67 (no typo), Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-1, Alkali Creek, t9/16; cum 5K 9/17; off line as of 6/17; still off line as of 8/18; one day of production, 5/20; remains off line 10/20;

This ObamaCare Experiment Is A Flop -- CNBC; Construction Spending At Lowest Level In Eight Months -- October 3, 2016

WTI closes just below $50 at $49.25.

This pretty much ends any more "development" on the Big Island. Seven species of bees put on the Endangered Species List. All species are, coincidentally, in Hawaii. It looks like there are about 10 species of bees in Hawaii.
Daily poll, USC-LA Times daily poll (dynamic and interactive link):

Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3368188185188

RBN Energy: the Jones Act rate crash.
Term charter rates for medium-range Jones Act tankers have fallen by two-thirds since they peaked at $120,000/day in mid-2014, to only $38,000/day done in September 2016, which is good news for producers but a punch in the stomach for ship owners. A sharp rise in the number of vessels being added to the Jones Act fleet has surely contributed to the charter-rate collapse. Less obvious are the degrees to which the rate drop may have been influenced by the decline in superlight Eagle Ford crude oil production, or by the lifting of the ban on U.S. crude oil exports. Today, we examine the evidence.
The Jones Act is a federal statute requiring that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried in U.S.-flagged ships, constructed in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and/or U.S. permanent residents.
The Jones Act fleet used by the petroleum industry consists of three main categories of vessels: smaller barges that typically carry either 10 MBbl or 30 MBbl of crude or refined products and operate on inland waterways as well as coastal canals; coastal barges, including larger articulated tug barges (ATBs); and self-propelled tankers that operate in both coastal and international waters and generally carry over 300 MBbl of crude oil or refined product. 
Our focus today is on large ATBs and a subset of the self-propelled tanker category, namely medium-range (MR) or “Handy” size tankers that carry about 330 Mbbl and that are largely engaged on term charters by oil companies to move crude or refined products between U.S. ports.
Brexit date set: March, 2017. That's when "the trigger is pulled." It will take at least two years to unwind the marriage. 

This ObamaCare Experiment Is A Flop

More on Harken (reported previously): "experimental ObamaCare health plan" exits Chicago and Atlanta exchanges.
This Obamacare experiment is a flop.
Harken Health — billed as an "innovative" health insurer and started by America's biggest insurance company to appeal to Obamacare customers — will exit the only two government-run exchange markets where it was selling coverage after reportedly booking losses of about $70 million in the first half of this year.
The UnitedHealth Group unit — which offers unlimited primary care visits at no out-of-pocket cost to customers who use Harken Health clinics — continue selling plans outside of Obamacare exchanges in the individual and employer markets of both Chicago and Atlanta next year.
But its departure in 2017 from the Obamacare exchanges that serve those cities represents another setback for advocates of the Affordable Care Act and their efforts to offer individual health plan customers a broad range of affordable coverage options.
Harken in August said it was abandoning plans to sell Obamacare exchange coverage in Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, next year.
And Harken's parent, UnitedHealth, earlier this year said it would itself exit most Obamacare exchanges, including the federal marketplace that services Illinois, in 2017.
The first line in that CNBC story had one word too many, or the wrong demonstrative pronoun.

Also, it was reported today that Evergreen Health, Maryland's ObamaCare health co-op will switch to for-profit, leaving only 5 of the original 23 co-ops still left standing as non-profit co-ops.  Anybody who still defends ObamaCare is a) not paying attention; b) is an Obama supporter regardless of what he does; or, c) is one of the few Americans who has benefited from this trainwreck.

Those Most Responsible

Flashback: From Breitbart, the ten most responsible for this debacle, in reverse order, the usual suspects:
  • SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D-LA): “If you like the insurance that you have, you'll be able to keep it.” (MSNBC’s Hardball, 12/16/09)
  • SEN. KAY HAGAN (D-NC): “We need to support the private insurance industry so that people who have insurance they're happy with can keep it while also providing a backstop option for people without access to affordable coverage.” (“Republicans Vent As Other Compromise Plans Get Aired,” National Journal’s Congress Daily, 6/18/09)
    SEN. MARK BEGICH (D-AK): “If you got a doctor now, you got a medical professional you want, you get to keep that. If you have an insurance program or a health care policy you want of ideas, make sure you keep it. That you can keep who you want.”
  • SEN. MICHAEL BENNET (D-CO): “We should begin with a basic principle: if you have coverage and you like it, you can keep it. If you have your doctor, and you like him or her, you should be able to keep them as well. We will not take that choice away from you.”
  • SEN. PATTY MURRAY (D-WA): “Again, if you like what you have, you will be able to keep it. Let me say this again: If you like what you have, when our legislation is passed and signed by the President, you will be able to keep it.” (Sen. Murray, Congressional Record, S.6400, 6/10/09)
  • SEN. TOM HARKIN (D-IA): “One of the things we put in the health care bill when we designed it was the protection for consumers to keep the plan they have if they like it; thus, the term ‘grandfathered plans.’ If you have a plan you like --existing policies--you can keep them. …we said, if you like a plan, you get to keep it, and you can grandfather it in.” (Sen. Harkin, Congressional Record, S.7675-6, 9/29/10)
  • SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): “If you like your insurance, you keep it.” (U.S. Senate, Finance Committee, Bill Mark-Up, 9/24/09)
  • SEN. DICK DURBIN (D-IL): “This bill before us on the Senate floor makes it clear that if you have an insurance policy that you like, you can keep it. If you like the doctor that you're currently doing business with, you can continue to use that doctor.” (Sen. Durbin, Teleconference, 12/4/09)
  • SEN. HARRY REID (D-NV):“In fact, one of our core principles is that if you like the health care you have, you can keep it.” (Sen. Reid, Congressional Record, S.8642, 8/3/09)
  • SEN. MAX BAUCUS (D-MT): “That is why one of the central promises of health care reform has been and is: If you like what you have, you can keep it. That is critically important. If a person has a plan, and he or she likes it, he or she can keep it.” (Sen. Baucus, Congressional Record, S.7676, 9/29/10)
I disagree: it was any Republican who voted for ObamaCare.

The Market

Closing: Dow 30 down 54 points, and WTI just below $50 at $49.25

Late afternoon: down about 60 points; oil barely above $48, up slightly. NYSE:
  • new highs: 109 -- CLR (a big whoop); EOG (another big whoop);
  • new lows: 23, including WFC
Mid-day trading: down about 55 points. Oil treading water, down 21 cents, and just above $48.

Opening: Down around 70 points, I guess.

US construction spending fell in August for the second straight month to its lowest level in eight months, "an unexpected drop" driven by weakness across all sectors. "The successive declines suggest home building might not help economic growth in the third quarter. Reuters

CLR hits a new high. I remember this clown from August 24, 2016:
August 25, 2016: this is another perspective regarding CLR from a contributor over at SeekingAlpha who is shorting CLR. Among many reasons he cites for shorting the stock is this one:

The U.S. has agreed, along with Canada and Mexico, to generate half of its electricity from renewable sources by 2025.  
It is incredibly important to note that this "renewable" energy includes hydroelectric power and nuclear power.

Car Sales

Bad news for GM / Silverado: F-150 series has held the #1 spot for quite some time. Then, GM Silverado came in second, followed by Ram. In September, 2016, the natural order of things switched. Fiat's Ram came in second, and GM's Chevy Silverado came in 3rd. 
The three top-selling vehicles in the United States remains the same month after month. Ford Motor Co.'s F-150 is first, followed by the Chevy Silverado from General Motors Co. and then by Fiat Chrysler Automobile N.V.'s Ram. The natural order dissolved in September as Ram sales pulled ahead of Silverado's.
Pickup sales are among the most profitable of all vehicle sales made by global manufacturers. Ford's F-Series sales are about 20% of its total unit sales each year. Silverado sales are slightly less critical for GM, but still important.

US car sales slip. WSJ. September results.
  • GM and Ford sales decline amid pullbacks in fleet deliveries (this had been predicted)
  • GM: slipped 0.6%. Inconsequential.
  • Ford: "skidded" 8.1%. Consequential. (21% decline in fleet sales)
  • Fiat Chrysler: down 0.9%; Jeep posted a rare decline
  • Toyota: rose 1.5%
  • Honda: a 0.1% decline
Still, one of the best years ever for car sales.

Drilling down, let's look how Ford spins this. From the Ford press release which starts with this headline: Ford Transit Sales Grow In September; Ford's Overall US Sales Down 8 Percent Versus Year-Ago

The lede: Ford Transit vans US sales grew 6 percent last month with 10,799 sold. Overall, Ford US Seeptember sales totaled 204,447 vehicles, an 8 percent decline versus a year ago.

I'm not sure why Ford did not open with this: September marked 2016's best month for F-Series' retail sales. Ford F-Series sales totaled 67,809 vehicles (oh, now I see why) -- a 3% decline.


Link here (dynamic).
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.2 percent on October 3, down from 2.4 percent on September 30, 2016.
After this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of third-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth fell from 8.4 percent to 4.7 percent and the forecast of third-quarter real government spending growth declined from 0.8 percent to 0.1 percent.
Flashback -- April 28, 2016:
In the original post, there is a link to an article in which President Obama thoughtfully discusses why Americans don't feel economically "better" during his administration. He blamed it on the GOP. He might want to look in the mirror and note he is the first American president in history to not preside over one year of 3.0%+ economic growth. That's why Americans don't feel "better" economically. It has nothing to do with the GOP. It has to do with reality.