Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Area Rich In Slawson Wells, Van Hook, North Side Of The Lake -- September 26, 2018

The area inside the oval on the north side of the river, northeast corner of McKenzie County, is filled with incredible Slawson wells. I don't have the energy or the time to go through the wells tonight but sometime I may go through them, but suffice it to say, a lot of great wells.

A couple that caught my eye:
  • 19485, 880, Slawson, Loon Federal 1-24-35H, Van Hook, t5/11; cum 568K 8/18; recent production (note: it has just come off line):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Another one:
  • 18924, 1,361, Slawson, Vixen Federal 1-19-30H, Van Hook, t2/11; cum 514K 8/18
The graphic:

The CLR Hendrickson Wells Have Been Updated -- September 26, 2018

The CLR Hendrickson/Hendrickson Federal wells in Elm Tree oil field have been updated.

One of the monster wells, drilled in 2009:
  • 18224, 1,099, CLR, Hendrickson 1-36H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 705K 7/18
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Initial production after this well was drilled/completed in 2009:


When It Drops This Much, It Has To Be A One-Off -- As They Say -- Gasoline Demand -- September 26, 2018

Link here.



It's One Of Those Nights

La Mer

Bruin E&P Operating LLC On A Roll -- Lots Of Activity -- September 26, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66593471190

Two permits renewed:
  • CLR: a Bob permit in McKenzie County
  • Liberty Resources: a Keller permit in Burke County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33482, 2,493, Whiting, Wold Federal 43-1-2H, Sand Creek, t9/18; cum -- (#18787)
  • 33483, 2,387, Whiting, Wold Federal 43-1-2TFH, Sand Creek, t8/18; cum -- (#18787)
Operator transfer, housekeeping, Statoil to Equinor.

Nine new permits:
  • Operator: Bruin E&P Operating; Southwestern Production; CLR
  • Field: Antelope (McKenzie); Tracy Mountain (Billings); St Demetrius (Billings)
  • Comments: Bruin has permits for a 7-well Fort Berthold pad in Antelope oil field, NENE 27-151-94; Bruin is on a roll; reporting some huge Fort Berthold wells; it seems they keep getting better with their completions; Bruin could certainly be the "up and comer" in the Bakken; another "Oasis"
The graphic:

Other Bruin E&P wells in the immediate area:
  • 31774, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold 151-94-27A-34-16H, t--; cum --:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

  • 31775, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 32431, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 31776, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 31777, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 31778, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,

  • 30541, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 30542, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 30543, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope 
  • 30544, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 30545, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,
  • 30546, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold ..., Antelope,

  • 22707, 1,959, Bruin E&P Operating 151-94-26B-35-3H, Antelope/Sanish, t4/14; cum 494K:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 22708, 1,776, Bruin E&P Operating 151-94-26B-35-2H, Antelope/Sanish, t4/14; cum 297K:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 20328, IA/1,647, Bruin E&P Operating 151-94-26B-35-1H, Antelope/Sanish, t3/12; cum 534K:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Here We Go -- "Fed" Gets Ready To Raise Rates And The Market Is Beginning To Surge After A Lackluster Morning -- September 26, 2018

The market: I assume the market was waiting to see what the Fed would do, but the timing clearly suggests the market was waiting for a presidential tweet from the UN Security Council. More to follow.

Tesla: looking to maximize 3Q18 deliveries, Tesla is trying a number of initiatives. On a side note: in Southlake Town Center, there is a little-used, large parking lot that is inconveniently located for those shopping downtown. At the far side of this parking lot, there is a bank of eight to ten Tesla charging units. I don't see them used much during the day but at night I might see one or two units being charges; generally zero to maybe one. But if any are there, it catches my attention.There's nothing open in the area after 10:00 p.m. and even earlier in the evening, not much to offer in this particular area. Certainly people are not charging their Teslas while they go shopping. The only way I imagine these people getting to and from the charging station is by having a second driver pick them up after plugging their Tesla into the charging unit, and then driving them back when the car is charged. I suppose I could be wrong, but there is simply nothing in the area for anyone to do after parking the car while it is being re-charged. And, these are not out-of-town/cross-country drivers: they are way out of the way from the main state and interstate highways. I suppose if the range is 300 miles and they drive only 30 miles/day, then a single re-charge gives then 10 days of driving, then it makes sense. I see TSLA is up $11 today.

Nuclear plant: too big to fail.
Owners of the last remaining nuclear-power plant under construction in the U.S. agreed to keep working, even as rising costs and unpredictable financial risks threaten the half-built project.
After several days of closed-door negotiations, lawsuits and intense political pressure to craft a deal, the owners agreed to finish work on the Alvin W. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Waynesboro, Georgia, US.
Southern Co., the project leader, came to a new deal with co-owners Oglethorpe Power Corp., the Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia and Dalton Utilities. The companies didn’t immediately disclose the new terms.
The owners have been struggling for the past couple of years after the designer and lead construction contractor, Westinghouse Electric Co., filed for bankruptcy after costs rose and the project fell years behind schedule. Earlier this year, Southern said the costs had risen again, this time by $2.2 billion. This pushed the total cost estimate above $27 billion, more than twice the original estimate. Under the terms of the partnership, all three major partners needed to vote to continue work. If any voted to stop, the project would be canceled.
The companies faced what amounted to a no-win proposition. If they walked away, they would have faced a political storm over who should pay for the massive sunk costs of the project, which wouldn’t generate any additional electricity but could require customers to pay higher electric rates. But staying meant taking on growing risk that the project’s budget would continue rising.
They faced political pressure. State officials, including Gov. Nathan Deal, urged them to continue work, citing the more than 6,000 construction jobs. The federal Department of Energy also said it would seek an accelerated repayment of loans to the project if work was halted.
Kavanaugh hearings. My hunch is that if the Kavanaugh hearings are extended into next week, the whole process has pretty much unraveled. The tea leaves suggest that the hearings will be extended. Fascinating to watch. If Kavanaugh cannot be confirmed I find it hard to believe that Trump will get a second chance.

Brexit PM and Trump: meeting. Press conference at 5:00 p.m., apparently.

The "Fed": when asked why the economy is doing so well; the questioner suggested it was the "stimulus" -- unsaid what the questioner was referring to. The Fed's first response: higher oil patches are perhaps resulting in more investment in the oil patch, and then he mentioned household and business confidence. But I found it amazing that the one sector he mentioned as a possible reason for the roaring economy: the oil patch. Posted just after the Fed's press conference, 2:36 p.m. CDT, September 26, 2018, just after announcement that the Fed has raised "the rate" by another quarter percent. The 10-year bond: 3.065% (down slightly). Most indices are slightly positive. The Dow (irrelevant) is fluctuating around "flat" -- up a little, down a little. By the way, the Fed says the rate right now is about "perfect" -- which if accurate means that the December rate rise is not a foregone conclusion.

They're Reading The Blog -- "Lost Decade" -- September 26, 2018 -- The Investor Class Vs The Saving Class


Later, 11:39 p.m. CDT: could someone please provide a graphic of income disparity when the oil barons, the bank barons, and the rail barons owned the US -- let's say, about 1927, or thereabouts? Once I see that graphic, maybe I'll take the current concern about income disparity a bit more seriously. If one can't find that graphic, I would settle for a graphic of current income disparity in ... oh, let's say ... ah ... Venezuela. Cuba. North Korea. Siberia. China. Bangladesh. Syria. Palestine. Paris. NYC. San Francisco. Williston.

Original Post 

We'll never know who first mentioned the phrase "lost decade," but I know I first used it before ever seeing anyone else talk about it. And then the two "lost decades" of course (Bush II and Obama). There are even three "lost decade" tags at the bottom of the blog, a tag I haven't seen elsewhere.

And now we see it again, a reference to the "lost decade":
Back in March, 2018, the German bank then warned that the "liberal world order" is in jeopardy.
Fast forward to today, when Bank of America strategist Barnaby Martin tackles the thorny issue of ascendant populism, which he attributes to the "lost decade" following Lehman's collapse and what he dubs the "era of hubris" - a time when the richest 1% has seen its collective wealth surpass $100 trillion.
Martin begins by reminding us that a decade ago, "the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent shock waves through financial markets" to which the response was an unprecedented amount of central bank support, both in terms of its size and creativity.
And as we have observed on countless occasions, with central banks as a tailwind, financial markets have outperformed real assets over the last decade. Even so, the dichotomy in many cases is staggering:
Simply said, the last decade has seen those who hold financial assets become richer, as markets have lurched higher; meanwhile those without such assets - the vast majority of the middle class - have been increasingly left behind, however, even as wage growth remained stagnant and indebted governments have struggled to provide strong social support. As a result, a great wave of populism emerged as "issues such as wealth and income inequality have started to polarize societies much more."
The next chart shows in staggering fashion just how “rich” the rich are today, especially when compared to some other big numbers and markets. According to BofA estimates the wealth of the top 1% globally has surpassed $100 trillioin now…a number greater than the sum of the big-4 central bank balance sheets, current world GDP and the cost of the ‘07/’08 global financial crisis, for instance.

By the way, I found the article incredibly interesting and I loved the graphics, but I failed to really get a feeling for what the author was trying to say. The writer seemed to have stated the obvious but then failed to come to any conclusion of where this was all headed.

Having said that, the nuanced statement about China near the end, in my mind, was most important. There's a reason China is not putting tariffs on Apple. I'm still waiting to read stories about Chinese bankers jumping out of windows.

Bakken, CBR, East Coast Refineries Back In The News -- September 26, 2018

Link here. This is so cool. Haven't heard about this story in a long, long time.
A rail terminal outside of Philadelphia has begun taking deliveries of Bakken crude after going dormant for nearly three years, according to shipping data and a source familiar with operations, as refiners snatch up discounted North American crude barrels.
The 90,000 barrel-per-day-rail terminal in Eddystone, Pennsylvania, has been getting routine deliveries of Bakken crude for the past month, the first significant deliveries since the site went dark in January 2016. Monroe Energy, a subsidiary of Delta Air Lines Inc, is using the terminal to help supply its 185,000 bpd refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania.
The return of crude deliveries at Eddystone highlights the growing pains confronting U.S. producers who are facing bottlenecks as booming production outpaces pipeline growth. It also shows how U.S. refiners are trying to seize on the bottlenecks, doing whatever they can to access the distressed crude.
I actually find it interesting that there is so much talk about all the pipeline constraints when, in fact, it seems more oil than ever is being produced and shipped by pipeline.

On another note, I alluded to the story a few weeks (?) ago on the blog when it was reported that the  Iowa Supreme Court could shut down the DAPL. If the DAPL is shut down, CBR will come back nicely and CBR is so much ore flexible than a pipeline. At $80 and higher, the differential in shipping costs between CBR and pipeline become less problematic. With less takeaway capacity, North Dakota might not be able to maximize crude oil production, but it will do just fine.

And when Californians complain about $5 gasoline .... well, whatever.

T-24 Hours And Counting ... But Now, Just Like A NASA Launch -- The Hearing May Be On Hold

The Rise of the Oligarchy

Link here. Wealth of top 1% surpasses $100 trillion -- more than global GDP and all central bank balance sheets.
Weekly Petroleum Report

And here are the numbers:
  • US crude oil inventories: increased by 1.9 million bbls (pretty much in line with yesterday's API numbers; surprise, surprise
  • US crude oil inventories: 396 million bbls; below the 400-million-bbl threshold; remains bullish
  • refineries operating way below capacity, at 90.4%
  • gasoline production drops below 10 million bbls/day
  • distillate production also decline slightly, but held at 5 million bbls/day
  • jet fuel was again up; up 4% compared with same four-week period last year
WTI after the report? slight increase, back over $72

The Lobster Page

Lessons From The Lobster: Eve Marder's Work in Neuroscience, Charlotte Nassim, c. 2018.

From page xvii:
Eve Marder's lab is now recognized as a leader in computational neuroscience and is currently using both theoretical and experimental research to analyze the closely linked concepts of neuronal homeostasis, animal-to-animal variability, multiple solutions, and compensatory mechanisms. Marder has formulated coherent theories of these phenomena. The findings apply equally to the neuronal circuits of vertebrate animals, although for many years this was disputed.
This is pretty cool. A thought experiment.

When Eve Marder was three years old she stuck her head through a pair of vertical railings at a playground on 86th Street in New York City.

And, of course, she couldn't get her head back out.


This is incredibly clever, and it was her mother who calmly figured out the solution.
Eve started crying, of course, and all the mothers started panicking, except hers. Dorothy Marder told them not to worry and, turning Eve's body sideways, pushed it the rest of the way out through the bars. Afterward she (I assume, Eve) told everyone that obviously the head is the biggest part, and as far as she was concerned it was the only precious part. So it didn't matter if the body got scraped; it would heal.
When did Eve Marder realize she was clever? Nine years of age; Sputnik.

From page 4:
Her parents had strikingly different approaches to solving problems. Her dad had a degree in electrical engineering. Throughout Eve's childhood, she remembers incidents, sometimes leading to quarrels. "He could easily end up with an entirely wrong assessment of a situation by a totally reasonable process. So my mother was almost invariably right, and he was almost invariably wrong. He would get there by consistent logical thought, and she would get there by this very bizarre way, and that used to drive me crazy." Over the years, I suspect, Eve melded these two styles of thought and, although probably a naturally rational thinker, also heeds her intuitions with the result that she is not hobbled by logic.
Welcome to my world. I invariably come to the wrong assessment using a total reasonable process and my wife gets to the right assessment using some bizarre method unknown but to Hera.

The first chapter of Charlotte Nissam's book is worth the price of the book. In another time and place, I would read it aloud to the love of my life. I digress.

In another time and place I did just that. It must have been back in the spring of 1974. I was going to school in Los Angeles. My friend, two years ahead of me and going to school in Boston, had come out to visit me. It was her first visit to the west coast, and maybe in the end, her only visit. We took a drive up to San Francisco, a good six hours, I suppose. To help pass the time, though the scenery was beautiful, she drove and I read aloud John Steinbeck's East of Eden. From wiki:
The story is primarily set in the Salinas Valley, California, between the beginning of the twentieth century and the end of World War I, though some chapters are set in Connecticut and Massachusetts, and the story goes as far back as the American Civil War.  
I had forgotten about the connection to Massachusetts.

Going Back To Massachusetts, Bee Gees

Random Update Of A CLR Bailey Well In Pershing Oil Field -- September 26, 2018

Another CLR Bailey well in Pershing oil field came off the confidential list today.

The CLR Bailey and Wiley wells are tracked here. These are amazingly good wells.

Most are showing huge jumps in production.

One example, is #17770, which met "stripper well" criteria some years ago. The well:
  • 17770, 406, CLR, Bailey 1-24H, a Three Forks well, 22 stages, 1.7 million lbs, t4/10; cum 183K 7/18; stripper well, June 17, 2016;
Recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Example Of Geologists Reports In The Bakken -- September 26, 2018

In the "old days," the report might have been: CLR drilled a successful well."

The well:
  • 32129, 832, CLR, Burr Federal 7-26H1, Sanish, 62 stages, 9.9 million lbs, gas averaged 2,442 units in the lateral, ranging from 2 units to 6,834 units, t8/18; cum --;
Today, look how detailed the reports are getting. This is just the beginning of the geologist's report. It goes on for several pages (I've broken it into more paragraphs to make it easier on the eyes):
The Burr Federal 7-26H1 was spud on May 3rd, 2016 and the surface casing was drilled out on July 22nd, 2016. Geo-Link Inc., started logging the Burr Federal on July 25th, 2016 at 1215 hours (CST) at a measured depth (MD) of 8950’.

A Mudlogging Systems, Inc. Redbox gas detection system was used for analyzing and recording total gas and chromatograph data.

The Burr Federal 7- 26H1 had preset 9 5/8” surface casing at 1975’ MD. An invert mud system was used to drill out from surface throughout the landing of the build section. The first BHA used included (Bit #1) an 8 3⁄4’’ Security MM65D bit, a Schlumberger PDX6 Power Drive RSS, a Mpact 7/8 lobe, 5.0 stage, 0.0° Fixed Bent Housing (FBH) mud motor, and a Multi Shot serial MWD tool. This BHA was used to drill out from surface casing at 2014’ MD and drilled 5976’ MD, where there was a trip for the BHA at 7990’ MD on July 24th, 2016 at 1350 hours.

On July 24th, 2016 at 2350 the trip back in the hole (TIH) was completed with a new BHA which included (Bit #2) an 8 3⁄4’’ Reed DS616M-X1-Z, a Schlumberger PDX6 Power Drive RSS, a Mpact 7/8 lobe, 5.0 stage, 0.0° FBH mud motor, and a Multi Shot serial MWD tool. This assembly drilled to 9088’ MD in 13.42 bit hours and a total of 1098’ MD, where there was a trip for the RSS not responding to the downlinks and the angle was dropping and drifting hard right, on July 25th, 2016 at 1415 hours.

The TIH was completed at 0325 hours on July 26th, 2016. The new assembly contained (Bit #3) an 8 3⁄4” Security MM55D, a Mpact 7/8 lobe, 6.4 stage, 1.5 FBH and 4.24’ Bit to Bend mud motor and a Multi Shot serial MWD tool. This assembly drilled to the kick-off point (KOP) of 10380’ MD and was reached at 0700 hours on July 27th, 2016. This assembly drilled to the land of the build and curve section at 11185’ MD, for a total of 805’ MD in 15.59 bit hours.

The build was landed at 1420 hours on July 28th, 2016, at 11185’ MD, 10622’ TVD at a projected inclination of 89.9° and an Azimuth of 269.5° in NESW Section 26, T153N, R93W (3135’ FSL & 567’ FEL). Seven inch (7”) Intermediate casing was set at 11185’ MD on July 29th and 30th, 2016 and cemented.

The up hole markers logged were the Base of the Last Salt (BLS) at 8843’ TVD, Mission Canyon at 9026’ TVD, and the Lodgepole at 9654’ TVD. The down hole markers below kick off point (KOP) consisted of the False Bakken at 10444’ TVD, Upper Bakken Shale at 10459’ TVD, Middle Bakken Member at 10478’ TVD, Lower Bakken Shale at 10545’ TVD and the Three Forks Bench 1 at 10593’ TVD. The up hole markers, BLS, Mission Canyon and Lodgepole formation all came in low to the prognosis, 14’, 16’ and 4’, respectively. All of the tops below KOP came in 5’ to 9’ high to the prognosis. (See the Burr Federal 7-26H1 Vertical, TVD and Horizontal Logs for any additional information).

Gas observed in the vertical, build and tangent sections, which showed gas averaging 23 units (u) through the Lodgepole formation, with a max gas of 182u and with no background sample shows or oil shows. There was a slight increase in the gas going through the Upper Bakken Shale, max of 291u, and in the Middle Bakken Dolomite gas was averaging 152u of background, or average gas, and a max of 275u. The Lower Bakken Shale had a maximum gas show of 850u and averaged 405u. The Three Forks Bench 1, the zone of interest, had an average gas shows of 374u and a max show of 689u.
A Shout Out To The Texas Department Of Motor Vehicles

My wife needed to get her driver's license renewed this year, specifically before Thanksgiving. Because of new TSA / Homeland Security rules, she could not renew by mail. She had to "show up in person" with a gazillion forms of identification, "preferably a passport," proof of citizenship, a notarized birth certificate, proof of residency, a copy of our mortgage or lease agreement, proof that she had visited "The Alamo" at least once in the last ten years, a signed statement pledging allegiance to the Republic of Texas, and a signed letter of support for Senator Ted Cruz.

Fortunately she still had her passport "card." She lost her passport in a flood two years ago. Another long story. 

For the past week, she tried to arrange for an appointment by telephone or on-line. The website was not taking reservations and the half-dozen DMV sites within reasonable driving distance were not taking phone calls. 

She commiserated all week which DMV site to visit: the smaller one close by or the "mega-center" in Ft Worth. We had heard horror stories about the four-hour wait at the smaller site and mixed reviews about the under-staffed "mega-center."

Among the locals, the visit to the Texas DMV ranks right up there with the boogeyman, the dreaded Bakken decline rate, and Trump's trade war on China.

She left in pouring rain this morning at 6:45 a.m. with expectations of being in the DMV parking lot by 7:30 when the doors opened.

I received a text message that she had arrived at 7:25. I was dropping off the granddaughters at school.

Then nothing. May dropped off the grid. 7:45 a.m. and no update. 8:00 a.m., no update. Did she get in? How long was the line? Was the computer system working? Were they "taking" Japanese-Hispanic women today? 8:15 a.m. No text. Nothing. Perhaps the DMV is the "undisclosed" location used in times of presidential emergencies, and all communications with the outside world are "blocked."

8:17 a.m., this text message: "All done. I'm on my way home." With a smiling face emoji.

I can hardly wait to hear the whole story. LOL. 

I don't want to take anything away from Captain Cook and his voyage into the Great Barrier Reef but a successful return from the Texas DMV certainly ranks right up there with the other great manmade terrestrial and extraterrestrial expeditions. 

Anticipating CLR Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- The Juneau Wells In Brooklyn Oil Field -- September 26, 2018

Recent production for this well:
  • 21015, 740, CLR, Juneau 1-2H, Brooklyn, t11/11; cum 159K 7/18:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

This well runs parallel to two wells that have just been fracked.

The Lobster Page

Lessons From The Lobster: Eve Marder's Work in Neuroscience, Charlotte Nassim, c. 2018

From page xvi:
The core of my project is Eve Marder's work, which reveals the outstandingly original scientific mind and the distinctive approach, as intuitive as it is analytic, that define her thinking.
A key characteristic of this approach is her mistrust of the hypothesis-driven research that has long been established as scientific method. It expects researchers for form a hypothesis and then design the experiments that might prove or disprove it.
Marder prefers to "let the data speak, let the data drive the questions."
The other "thing" not mentioned: like other successful researches: Eve Marder lived and breathed the subject she researched. For 40+ years she was thinking about one ganglion 24/7.