Monday, October 5, 2020

A Closer Look At That Kraken Well In Oliver Oil Field -- October 5, 2020

Taking another look at this well, recently released from confidential status:

The well:

  • 36978, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H, Oliver, t--; cum 147K 8/20; fracked 2/14/20 - 2/27/20; moderate - large frack with 10.2 million gallons of water; 84.9% water by mass

Production -- look how long "they" maintained that production -- operators working on that "dreaded Bakken decline." Also note how fast they got this well hooked up to a natural gas pipeline:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

 A reader who corresponds regularly and is following this quite closely noted:

That Kraken well used ~243 thousand barrels of water to frac and has, so far, recovered ~223 thousand barrels produced water over a few months online. This is further indication that operators are able to virtually eliminate the flowback procedure in the 10/14 days immediately following the completion and allow the elevated, induced hydraulic pressure to push more oil into the wellbore. 
This one change in procedure should increase output significantly. 

The reader has pointed this out several times before regarding other wells. This is not something new. 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

That is remarkable, about lowering costs. The last time I looked, and it's been a long time, maybe a year, some operators said well drilling/completion costs were down to $6 million in the Bakken. 

A quarter-million-dollar saving on $6 million is significant. Add that to the huge wells some operators are reporting, and cost per bbl is coming way down.

On some of these wells, operators are paying for their wells at the wellhead at $20/bbl in two years. Yes, I know there are a lot of other costs and ways to "play the cost game" but even at $20/bbl to pay for a well in two years. Not bad.

By the way, the oil field in which this Kraken well was drilled is not exactly near the "hot spots" in the Bakken. In fact, this is one of the least exciting areas in the Bakken. 

 The reader also noted this:

On a completely unrelated note, the recent 'merger' of Liberty and Schlumberger's completion division should show reduced costs for completions starting, perhaps, next summer. 
In addition to switching over to natgas-fueled electric frac'ing (possible quarter million dollar saving per well completion right there), the successful implementation/introduction of new hardware involving the 'missile' which distributes the frac fluid underground could save maintenance costs to Liberty in a major way.  
The full explanation is lengthy, but American operators are apt to become even more competitive versus their global competitors in the near future.

That's very interesting. I doubt there is much in the way that Saudi Arabia can do, for example, to make their lifting costs less, but with shale, it seems there is quite a bit yet to learn. Very, very interesting. Wouldn't it be interesting if fracking on non-federal land could more than make up for any loss of fracking on federal land if the next president were to ban fracking on federal land? Just thinking out loud.

With regard to the "missile":

Up Next: Halloween
It's 2020, What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Little Red Riding Hood, Sam The Sham, and the Pharaohs

Apple And Not Much Else -- October 5, 2020


Sports Page

How low can the ratings go? Link here:

From the link:

Instead of a methodical seven game march towards an NBA championship, the 2020 NBA Finals have turned into a methodical march to the historic depths of television watching futility. 
Game 1 of the Finals brought with it the lowest viewership since 1994, and Game 2 was the lowest ever on record
But wait! That was before Game 3, which beat out Game 2 by becoming the least watched Finals game in NBA history
Game 2 earned a paltry 4.5 million viewers, while Game 3 submarined that number by peaking at 4.395 million. Mind you, this is a nearly 70% decline from last year’s Finals numbers which included a team from Canada
Not only that, unlike this year’s audience, last year’s audience was not on lockdown and did not include the game’s best player, LeBron James.

Analysis at the link. 

Now we see why China matters.

BLM: not playing tonight. Next game day: tomorrow, Tuesday, October 6, 2020.

NFL: two games tonight. I think the Chiefs won the first game; Green Bay will win the second game tonight. I quit watching after the third consecutive BLM commercial.

MLB: NY Yankess lead some other team, 4 - 3, middle of the 6th; 

Love The Color Code

Burleigh County (Bismarck -- 653); Cass (Fargo -- 554); Stark (Dickinson -- 305) -- all in same color code category as Pembina (32); Barnes (31); McHenry (35).

After Fargo, Mandan&Bismarck, most surprising is Dickinson with 305 active cases, 18 total deaths -- more deaths than Grand Forks.

Television Tonight!

Wow, wow, wow! Graham Greene's The End Of The Affair on TCM tonight!! A most incredible story. No, not the movie. The life of Graham Greene. I've disposed of most of my library but have kept a few biographies including Norman Sherry's 3-volume biography of Graham Greene, Norma Sherry wrote it while living in San Antonio, of all places. I found the volumes while living in San Antonio some years ago at Half-Price Bookstore, and read the biography while living there. 

I have read much of it twice, and some of it several times. The biography reads like that of a fictional character. Graham was a war journalist of sorts, living through WWI, WWII, Vietnam, and Korea.

The scenes in the London churches take me back to the Sunday evenings I spent in churches in Yorkshire in 2002 - 2004, or thereabouts.

I am tempted to start reading it again tonight. Volume II.

Is It Time To Defund Walter Reed? -- October 5, 2020

With headlines like these, do we even need PowerLine's week in cartoons or the Babylon Bee?

Is it time to defund Walter Reed? This will be the top national non-energy story this week and it's only Monday. Call me biased, but it seems the WR staff should be hailed for saving a 74-year-old with at least two underlying co-morbidities with decreasing oxygen sats and a positive Covid-19 test. Just saying.

Well, this is probably as good as it gets:

In other news:

And then this:

BR With Four New Permits; WPX Reports Two DUCs Completed -- October 5, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1158645932

Four new permits, #37878 - #37881, inclusive:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Persing (McKenzie)
  • Comments:

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36864, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HD, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 36820, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HC, Squaw Creek, no production data,

Shout-Out To Amazon -- Technology In General -- October 5, 2020

Trump: this technology is amazing. In addition to tweeting text, President Trump is now tweeting videos. This must drive the mainstream media mad. Mainstream media can spin the story any way they want, but when one can see live video of the president any time, anywhere. it allows me to see things unfiltered.

Distance learning: one of the very, very positive things to come out of Covid-19 and distance learning -- parents can be much, much more involved with education of their children. They can see what their children are being taught -- at all levels. Parents can now be "in the classroom" if they want to see their children's teachers in action. Good, bad, or indifferent, we're going to see a lot of YouTube videos on this phenomenon.

For me it's awesome. We got a note from Sophia's teacher yesterday, Sunday, telling us that that first graders would be studying magnets in science and counting by 2s, 5s and 10s in arithmetic. Sophia and I have been working on counting by 5s and 10s for about two months: coins and the abacus. And now her class is doing this. Great positive feedback. I did not know about counting by 2s -- we started adding that last night.

Magnets? Just ordered a magnet education kit for Sophia for $13 over on Amazon. Will arrive this week. When she's done with it, it will be donated to her school or to TutorTime. 

I never understood electricity -- I blame it on my high school physics teacher. Chemistry, just the opposite. Incredibly good high school chemistry teacher. He probably did more for me in my career choices than any other adult at that time. I certainly never understood the connection between electricity and magnets. Sophia and I have worked electricity snap-on education kits for the past two or three years, but never thought of magnets. And had it not been for distance learning, I never would have thought of that. 

Photo Of The Week -- October 5, 2020

From a reader:

My home is in __________  and I work in the oilfield up around Tioga.

I travel through Dickinson regularly. I believe it's been at least a year ago but I think they put in a Tesla charging station. I took this picture this evening. It's the busiest I've seen it since installation

This is in the parking lot of the mall a couple blocks north of the I-94 / ND Hwy 22 junction.

Comment: You know, it's interesting. At the Tesla charging site a block or so from the largest (?) dealership (?) in north Texas, the same thing. There are about ten charging posts at the charging station and I seldom see a car there. And what a pain. Driving the car to the site and then leaving it parked there overnight. Can you imagine if you had to leave your laptop at a local kiosk to charge it overnight?
So, if you are driving cross-country in your Tesla, and end up in Dickinson at midnight and need a charge, you are going to sit in an abandoned parking lot for thirty minutes waiting for your car to charge? Oh, that's right; great opportunity to take a cat nap.
I think it costs about a million dollars to put in one of these charging stations. 

Second best thing about the photo above: the shadows. Low, low sun in North Dakota. Exactly how I remember so many evenings in North Dakota. Great memories.


From a reader:
My son-in-law has a TSLA on lease. He goes about five miles to  a Cubs grocery store. The speed charger takes about 45 minutes so, so we went inside and did some grocery shopping.

He was thinking of getting a home charger for the TSLA, but said it took a 70 amp service. His house is wired for 200 amp and this would have required a new service run into his home. So  that is why not many people have a in home Tesla charger..

He thought the whole think was OK, but I thought it was not what I would want..  
My not-ready-for-prime-time-reply:
Yes, I agree. Your son-in-law now has another monkey on his back, as we used to say in the military: a scheduling monkey on his back. 
Sure, he can combine other activities with charging his Tesla, but he is always thinking about doing that ... when "do I have to charge myTesla again?"

That's an interesting insight into a new service run into the home. I was unaware of that. I thought it was nothing more than a "dryer-like" hook-up. This explains why I haven't heard much about these hook-ups in California.  
It will be interesting to see if he renews the lease for another year.

Another response: Corky needs to set up a "Corky's Cookies" kiosk (with coffee) next to these Tesla chargers.  

Regarding re-wiring. I post this for the archives, because I know nothing about this. From a reader:

A clothes dryer is usually a 20 amp 220 volt hook up. Most houses with a 100 Amp or larger can accommodate.

This in addition if the dryer hook up was not in place in original construction.

But  a seperate , or additional 70 amp service could even require a new feed wire  from transformer, and a new electrical box. [Not mentioned: a new transformer will be needed in neighborhoods where more than two or three EVs are garaged.]

With regard to the houses built in the 1950's- 60's that still had fuses in the panel: to switch this over to circuit breakers cost about  $1,500 in rural Minnesota. [Comment: wow, I had already forgotten about fuses. Amazing.]

And this is simple: unhooking old wires from fuses, take out the old fuse panel box, put in the new fuse box, re-connect. To make new circuits .. it is slow, putzy kinda work.

My reply: a great science project for Sophia when she's learning about electricity in school. This week they are studying magnets. 

The Bakken Wells Are Simply Incredible -- And Being Choked Back Due To Demand Destruction -- October 5, 2020

Examples, not atypical of recent wells being reported in the Bakken. Note how fast flaring comes to an end. Also note delta between MCF produced and MCF sold with NO flaring.

Completion strategies: tracked at the sidebar at the right.

The wells:

  • 36264,  drl/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HY, Mandaree, t--; cum 123K 8/20; fracked 1/22/20 - 1/30/20; a very small frack with 5.2 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass;


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 36978, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H, Oliver, t--; cum 147K 8/20; fracked 2/14/20 - 2/27/20; moderate - large frack with 10.2 million gallons of water; 84.9% water by mass


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

This Site Has Cookies

Sophia is a lot of fun, always thinking, and always full of enthusiasm. I had completely forgotten about her apron and chef's cap -- after we started baking cookies, she was the one who remembered, AND, she remembered where these items were "hidden."

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- October 5, 2020

Herd immunity: not one Tennessee Titan tested positive today.

By the way: this is the reason why tracking the number of tests doesn't matter -- from The WSJ -- The NFL, which has conducted more than 400,000 tests already, said that it was different from American communities because it tests its players almost every day. “That’s a very different scenario than typical community spread,” Sills said. “That being said, we’ll continue to try to learn from these situations.” Can you imagine every American being tested everyday? Hey, a new  Watch app? Oxygen saturation is a late indicator.

Most ridiculous comment and worthy of the Geico Rock nomination forAndrew Beaton and Louise Radnofsky, over at The WSJ:

One finding is already painfully on display. Even the most powerful, most tested institutions on the planet—including the NFL and the U.S. presidency—aren’t immune to this virus. Blocking an outbreak requires not just near-daily testing to prevent the virus from entering a group, but also protocols for social distancing and contract tracing that must be followed to impede the virus’ transmission if it does get in. 

BLM: after scoring their lowest ratings ever, the face of the BLM walked off the court before the game was over last night. Sorry. Not sorry. Said he thought the game was over. LeBron's team got beat in "one of the most stunning upsets in MLB history"-- ESPN2 this morning. Earlier it was reported game 2 of the BLM finals reported a fall-off 68% viewership (or however it was reported) but now this which I missed, this was game 1 -- one would think that game one of this championship series would have set all-time records -- wow, fans must really, really dislike the face of the BLM. Link here.

China matters.

How 'bout them Cowboys?

Re-posting: this just warms the cockles of my heart --

OPEC Basket Opens Below $40; Five Wells Taken Off Confidential List -- October 5, 2020

First things first: Americans and Brits do it again! First Oslo prize announced -- Medicine -- Hepatitis C -- !! Link here.

Focus on fracking, weekly edition posted, link here. oil and natural gas sell off on news of Trump infection. Distillate production at three-year low.

OPEC basket, link here: amazing how fast and how far OSP fell on news of President Trump testing positive for Chinese flu. This is the most recent data at the OPEC site, but obviously this is a couple of days old and OPEC basket has recovered (it's at $39.94).

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1158645932

Five wells coming off the confidential list:

Monday, October 5, 2020: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 672 for the year

  • None.

Sunday, October 4, 2020: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 672 for the year

  • 36670, drl/A, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-8, Tioga, t--; cum 66K 8/20;
  • 36264, drl/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HY, Mandaree, t--; cum 123K 8/20;

Saturday, October 3, 2020: 5 for the month; 5 for the quarter, 670 for the year

  • 36978, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H, Oliver, t--; cum 147K 8/20;
  • 36948, drl/A, Whiting, Arndt 11-24-2H, Sanish, t--; cum --;
  • 34916, SI/A, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-4H, Sand Creek, t--; cum 102K 8/20;

RBN Energy: US ethane export terminals, throughputs, and cargo destinations. Archived.

Taken together, the ethane-related infrastructure projects developed in the U.S. over the past several years serve as a reliable feedstock-delivery network for a number of steam crackers in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. NGL pipelines transport y-grade to fractionation hubs, fractionators split the mixed NGLs into ethane and other “purity” products, ethane pipelines move the feedstock to export terminals fitted with the special storage and loading facilities that ethane requires, and a class of cryogenic ships — Very Large Ethane Carriers, or VLECs — sails ethane to mostly long-term customers in distant lands. The end results of all this development are virtual ethane pipelines between, say, the Marcellus/Utica and Scotland, or the Permian and India. Today, we continue our series on ethane exports with a look at the two existing export terminals, the ethane volumes they have been handling, and where all that ethane has been headed.