Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Huge Crude Oil Drawdown -- API -- July 10, 2018

Link here.

Drawdown: 6.796 million bbls; that's a huge number. We'll see the EIA data tomorrow morning.

Here's the headline over at oilprice:

Yeah, except for a small increase --- and, I mean, really, really small -- in the OPEC basket, all the other "major" crude oils actually went down in price. This gets tedious. 

Huge Production For An MRO Ross Well -- July 10, 2018

This was previously reported/posted, but it deserves a stand-alone post:

This producing well (DUC) was reported as completed today:
  • 23163 (see below), 3,545, MRO, Ross 42-5H, Lost Bridge, section 4-148-95, t5/18; cum 81K after one full month; fracked 3/16/18 - 4/9/18 (look at how long it took them to frack this well); 7.53 million gallons of water (on the low side); 85.5%water; 13.6% sand;
Production data for #23163, API - 33-025-01774:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Look at the production data for two CLR Mountain Gap wells still on confidential list; compare with that MRO Ross well noted above.

Now go back and read carefully the full post for the CLR Mountain Gap wells at that link (https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2018/06/fracfocus-data-for-two-wells-currently.html).

Look how empty this area is:

It's about 24 miles southeast of Watford City as the bald eagle flies:

Lost Bridge appears to be an incredible field. Lost Bridge is in an incredible neighborhood; it's tracked here. It's just south of one of the best fields in the Bakken, the "Helis Grail." And it's just west of another nice field, the Eagle Nest.

Finally, zooming in, here are the four wells as they are today:

The wells:
  • 23162, 1,339, MRO, Bear Den 42-5TFH, Lost Bridge, t11/12; cum 267K 5/18; off-line for almost the entire past twelve months (one year);
  • 23163, 3,545, MRO, Ross 42-5H, Lost Bridge, section 4-148-95, t5/18; cum 81K after one full month; fracked 3/16/18 - 4/9/18 (look at how long it took them to frack this well); 7.53 million gallons of water (on the low side); 85.5%water; 13.6% sand;
  • 32517, 3,438, MRO, Ryan 42-5TFH, Lost Bridge, t5/1; cum 35K 5/18; 35K in the first full month; FracFocus -33-025-03123; 3/16/18 - 4/20/18; 7.6 million gallons of water; 85.7% water; 13.35% sand;
  • 32518, 2,774, MRO, Struthers USA 41-5H, Lost Bridge, t5/18; cum 10K the first full month; FracFocus - 33-025-03124; 3/16/18 - 4/8/18; 7.5 million gallons; 85.6% water; 13.6% sand;

Nine New Permits -- July 10, 2018 -- MRO With A Huge Well In Lost Bridge

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66572973189

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (7); Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (McKenzie); Truax (Williams)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 7-well Prairie Federal pad in NWNE 30-149-96; and, Whiting has permits for a two-well Oppegaard pad in NESE 9-154-97
Four producing wells completed:
  • 30266, 3,729, MRO, Hillesland 31-3TFH, Bailey, section 3-146-94, t5/18; cum 34K after 24 days;
  • 33598, 3,473, MRO, Rita 41-3TFH, Bailey, section 3-146-94, t5/18; cum 26K after 17 days;
  • 32517, 3,438, MRO, Ryan 42-5TFH, Lost Bridge, section 4-148-95, t5/18; cum 35K after one full month;
  • 23163 (see below), 3,545, MRO, Ross 42-5H, Lost Bridge, section 4-148-95, t5/18; cum 81K after one full month; fracked 3/16/18 - 4/9/18 (look at how long it took them to frack this well); 7.53 million gallons of water (on the low side); 85.5%water; 13.6% sand;
Production data for #23163, API - 33-025-01774:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Look at the production data for two CLR Mountain Gap wells still on confidential list; compare with that MRO Ross well noted above.

Now go back and read carefully the full post for the CLR Mountain Gap wells at that link (https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2018/06/fracfocus-data-for-two-wells-currently.html).

See this post for discussion.

France Beats Belgium And Goes To Final -- Against Either Croatia Or England

And Now The Real Fun Begins

All times above are central time. It's 4:46 a.m. in Moscow right now; it's 8:46 a.m. in Texas right now. So a 1:00 p.m. game here in Texas means the game starts at 9:00 p.m. in Moscow (?). 

July 10, 2018 -- T+30 -- Wow, This President Never Quits

Last night, late in the evening, he announces and then hosts the nominee for the Supreme Court and his family -- late into the evening. Certainly well after midnight before the White House was back to "normal."

Now President Trump is in Brussels for the NATO meeting. He must have left directly from the prime time speech last night, helicoptered to Andrews, and then flew to Europe.

And less than a week from today, next Monday, he will have a "summit" with Putin. It has been rumored and alleged that Putin has been colluding with the Russians in anticipation of this "summit."

By the way, Melania is with her husband in Brussels. The big question: where are Ivanka and Jared? Or Donald, Jr, for that matter. They are representing the president elsewhere helping to make America great again.

And, oh, by the way, the Dow is up 140 points right now; WTI is up slightly; and, the S&P 500 is only eight points from 2,800.

What's not to like.

By the way, President Trump also found time to pardon a rancher and his son who had both been convicted on arson charges, sparking the 2016 occupation of a wildlife refuge. Nevada. Any thought this is the big story in blue state Nevada right now and will probably carry through the mid-terms?

By the way, Elon Musk, according to Fox News, was the only CEO to fly to Thailand with a small submarine -- and, lo and behold -- it looks like it would have done the trick had it been needed.

My hunch is that with Musk making a deal with China, punishing tariffs on Tesla autos will be rescinded. I'm beginning to think that Musk needs to be given title in Donald Trump's cabinet, "Honorary Secretary of Transportation."

Wow! These "oilprice" Headlines Get Tedious

Hell Freezing Over?
Yahoo News Giving Trump Some Credit

Watford City Tornado Last Night -- July 10, 2018

Link here to The Bismarck Tribune.

Cow Appreciation Day -- July 10, 2018

Cow Appreciation Day today.

Until 7:00 p.m. local time, free entree at Chick-fil-A if you dress like a cow.

A simple note on your shirt is enough to get you a free entree.

Our Chick-fil-A restaurant was absolutely packed with two lanes of traffic in the drive-through.


The Veeder Wells

The graphics:

The wells:
  • 35016, SI/NC-->F/A, BR, Lillibridge 3A MBH-R, Blue Buttes, first production, 1/20; t--; cum 33K 1/21;
  • 35017, SI/NC-->F/A, BR, Lillibridge 1D TFH, Blue Buttes, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 40K 1/21;
  • 35018, conf, BR,
  • 35019, conf, BR,
  • 35020, conf, BR,

  • 32908, dry, BR, Lillibridge 3A MBH, Blue Buttes (note #35016 above);
  • 32909, 441, BR, Lillibridge 3B UTFH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 490K 1/21;
  • 32910, 555, BR, Lillibridge 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 548K 12/20; off line 1/21;
  • 32911, 524, BR, Lillibridge 3D UTFH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 394K 1/21;
  • 32912, 413, BR, Lillibridge-Veeder 3E-MBH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 485K 1/21;

  • 16571, 476, BR, Lillibridge 11-23H, Blue Buttes, t11/07; cum 292K 9/20; intermittent production since then;

  • 19288, 984, BR, Veeder 14-24H, 33-053-03208, Blue Buttes, t4/11; cum 526K 1/21; not re-fracked according to FracFocus or the NDIC in 2017; huge jump 11/17; look at #32909 - 32911 above; re-fracked in December, 2019; see this note;

  • 34382, F/NC-->A, BR, Veeder 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, first production ,4/20, t--; cum 216K 1/21;
  • 34383, F/NC-->F/A, BR, Veeder 3B TFH, Blue Buttes, first production, 4/20; t--; cum 167K 1/21;
  • 34384, SI/NC-->SI/A-->F/A, , BR, Veeder 3A MBH, Blue Buttes, minimal production; then none after the first seven days; 45K over 13 days, 5/20; fracked 12/28/19 - 1/5/20; 6.9 million gallons of water; 88.6% water by mass; 45K over 13 days extrapolates to 104K over 30 days; see this note; first production, 5/20; t--; cum 182K 1/21;

  • 16357, 371, BR, Veeder 14-13H, Blue Buttes, t2/07; cum 277K 1/21;sporadic production lately (6/19); sporadic production continues, 1/21;

  • 33043, 290, BR, Veeder 4B TFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 580K 1/21; huge jump in production; not re-fracked;
  • 33044, 340, BR, Veeder 4C MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 591K 1/21; off line 1/20; remains off line 3/20; back on line 7/20;

  • 33045, 149, BR, Veeder 4D MTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 425K 1/21; sporadic production since 8/19; excellent production since 7/20;
  • 33046, 433, BR, Veeder 4E MBH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 503K 1/21; off line 2/20; remains off line 3/20; on line 7/20;

Random Update Of An MRO Re-Fracked Chimney Butte Marlin Well - July 10, 2018


February 11, 2019: updated; full production profile here. first drilled in 2006; re-fracked in 2017 and the "new" well is better than the "old" well; this will be the Bakken going forward; we've discussed this often.

September 29, 2018: see update and other wells in this area. 

Original Post 

Look at the "small" re-frack. 

I would have thought I posted the production profile for this well, but I did not find it:
  • 16180, 128, MRO, Marlin 24-12H, Chimney Butte, t8/06; cum 319K 5/18; re-fracked 4/17 -- 14 stages, 2.8 million lbs (200,000 lbs/stage - standard)
Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update Of A CLR Antelope Well In Elm Creek -- July 10, 2018

This page won't be updated.

I follow the CLR Antelope wells in Elm Creek at this post.

Nice jump in production for this well:
  • 21488, 1,357, CLR, Antelope 3-23H, Elm Tree, t8/12; cum 606K 5/18; jump in production in 12/14; another jump 12/15; off line as of 2/18;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Look at the cumulative production for this well: over  600K in less than six years. After that last jump in production, the well went over 600K. Whoo-hoo. Bakken wells will produce for 30 years and will undergo multiple re-fracks.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and generally do not update the poorly performing Bakken wells. Just saying. 

2Q18 -- Earnings -- EOG Flirting With 52-Week High, T+30 -- July 10, 2018

Earnings season begins

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Earnings -- 2Q18

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

Earnings for the current quarter will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earnings season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies that might interest me or readers.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Note: by 4Q16 I lost a lot of interest in tracking earnings. I'm not sure where I will go with this page. In fact, there are more and more days when ... no, I won't go there. 

OAS: huge beat on both revenues and earnings;

CBS: Moonves beats on top and bottom lines; but CEO under #MeToo scrutiny; big question was whether Moonves was "on the earnings call." He was. He will survive the #MeToo scrutiny.

TSLA: "not as bad as expected"; Elon Musk says company will show a profit in every quarter going forward; 

AAPL: crushes forecasts; shares surge; best June quarter ever

CAT: beats earning by 24 cents.
Shares jump 3.3%, up almost $5/share. Also raising full year guidance. But look at that difference year-over-year -- that's the big story. One quarter ago, $1.35; this year, $2.82. Trump tariffs -- apparently CAT not affected. Tax reform -- probably a huge reason -- what companies are allowed to expense to expense in one year.  
Shares of Xilinx Inc. were up 9.8% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results and issued an outlook for the current quarter that exceeded analyst projections. The supplier of programmable logic devices reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $190 million, up from $157 million a year earlier. On a per-share basis, the company posted earnings of 74 cents, up from 59 cents a year ago. Analysts had been expecting 71 cents in GAAP EPS, according to FactSet. Revenue for Xilinx rose to $684 million in the quarter, up from $603 million in the year-earlier period. Analysts had been projecting revenue of $674 million. The company forecast revenue of $700 million to $720 million for the fiscal second quarter, whereas analysts had been expecting $680 million.
F: misses on earnings; but beat on revenues; shares down; apparently at 5 1/2 year-low.

SLB: total revenue of $8.3 billion, up 11.3%, yoy; eps of 43 cents, barely beating estimates; market response: yawn;

Alcoa: huge beat; $1.52 adj vs $.132;  shares down on the news; investors not impressed? guidance was down; this was the first "metal" to report after tariffs announced;

eBay: misses; shares down 3%;

IBM: revenue beats; EPS, $3.08 vs $3.04; shares unchanged; yawn;

AMEX (APX): 184 vs 182; revenues missed slightly; shares down 3% after-hours;

UAL: huge beat and better guidance; shares surge

Delta Airline: $1.77 vs $1.72 consensus.

WD-40: surprise; 10% on the upside;

PEP: haven't seen the numbers but Fox said PEP smacked their earnings out of the ballpark.

HELE: Helen of Troy; a surprise of 28%.

Bitcoin: not for the faint-hearted --

Venezuela Data: EIA And Reuters Numbers Differ -- July 10, 2018

Pardon the interruption -- before we get to the Venezuela story, this first. It looks like the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion project is a sweet deal. Both First Nations and Alberta appear likely to compete for / share an equity stage in the pipeline.
Now, back to Venezuela.

Reuters says Venezuela crude oil imports to the US "bounced back in June, 2018." That surprised me.

From Reuters:
[Venezuela] exported 563,962 barrels per day of crude to the United States last month (June, 2018), 5 percent above May figures and the largest volume since August. Exports of DCO slightly surpassed 250,000 bpd, the highest level since May 2017, according to Thomson Reuters trade flows data.
  • June, 2018: 563,962 x 30 days = 16.919 million bbls
  • May, 2018: 16.113 million bbls
Let's look at EIA data. Most recent EIA data available only through April, 2018, monthly US imports from Venezuela:

So, Reuters says:
  • June imports of 16.919 million bbls is the largest volume since August, 2017. It appears, according to the EIA, US imports from Venezuela exceeded that amount "significantly" in both March and April
We'll have to wait to see the official EIA data which should be available soon.

Now, imagine if the numbers vary that much between various sources for every nation that imports and/or exports oil ....

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors and often misread articles.

Active Rigs In North Dakota Back Down To 64 -- July 10, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

The market: yesterday at noon, when the market was up about 300 points, I rushed home to watch "Power Lunch" on CNBC; they were discussing Tiger Woods and golf (an advertisement for the upcoming golf tournament to be televised by NBC). I turned it off. Later in the afternoon, while waiting to pick up Sophia, turned on CNBC again to see the market close. The CNBC senior market analyst, with the market up 300 points, was trying to talk the market down -- "too rich; over-valued" -- now this morning, after the Dow was up 320 points yesterday, at the opening the Dow is up another 100 points. It looks like taking GE out of the Dow 30 and replacing it with a pharmaceutical made a big difference.

WTI: yesterday oilprice suggested $150-oil due to low exploration investment; today it's "$50 to current price of WTI" or about $125-oil, I assume. So how is WTI doing today? Up 50 cents, about $74.30. 

Only one well comes off the confidential list today:
  • 34071, 1,950, Hess, An-Double Bar V-152-95-0106H-3, Antelope, Sanish, t5/18; cum 25K after 20 days; 11 days; gas ranged from 5 to 6,562 units; fracked 3/25/18 - 4/5/18; 8.5 million gallons of water ( a bit on the low side); 89.3% water; 9.84% sand; a bit on the low side;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs64572973189

RBN Energy: record gas production reins in futures prices.
After treading near the 79-Bcf/d level this past spring, Lower 48 natural gas production surged about 1.5 Bcf/d higher in the last three weeks of June to record highs approaching 82 Bcf/d by month’s end. The supply gains suspended the market’s bullish view of the persistently large storage deficit compared with last year and the five-year average and reeled in the prompt CME/NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract from the $3/MMBtu mark — at least for now. Where did the gains occur and how much of that influx truly is new production versus volumes returning from seasonal maintenance? Today, we examine the drivers behind the recent production jump.
And Now This

No wonder the Brits want to Brexit ...

And folks think Trump is extreme. Wow.