Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Another Day, Too Much News -- Quick Takes -- October 16, 2018

North Dakota
  • battery company might build factor in Grand Forks; lithium ion batteries; Clean Republic; a group of UND researchers; company founded in 2010; makes kits to convert bicycles into electric bikes; a byproduct of North Dakota coal to create a more reliable rechargeable battery? Link here.
Saudi Arabia
  • SecTreasury: earlier it was reported that he would attend; now it is being reported that Steven Mnuchin won't go to the Saudi investment conference (October 18, 2018)
  • say goodbye to Sir Richard Branson, Virgin, and Hyperloop
  • "I always take bone saws to interrogations" -- Scott Adams, no link
  • US SecState Mike Pompeo meets with King Salman; no link; story everywhere; it's Pompeo's reputation on the line; can he do better than SecState Hillary? What does it matter?
  • where is the EU in this whole mess? Is the US the only one that's concerned? Certainly the EU has some relationships with "the kingdom"; haven't heard a thing from Theresa May
  • As of midday Monday, executives from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and HSBC Holdings PLC were still planning to attend the conference, set to begin on October 23, 2018 -- by then this whole thing will have blown over - not;
  • Brexit on the ropes; no link; story everywhere; plenty of time; March, 2019 is deadline; that's an eternity in politics
  • most competitive nation in ten years; link here;
  • what were Bush II and Sir Saint Obama doing for sixteen years?

Stormy Daniels
  • best quote all day: no one is saying she doesn't ....
Harvard admissions
  • An apology and it's over? Heidi makes the WSJ; this story has legs; only three weeks to the midterms; I guess this probably means no US Supreme Court nomination for Heidi -- ever;

Krispy Kreme

I remember when Krispy Kreme first came to San Antonio back in 2002 or thereabouts.


Sempra Energy Dumps 981 MW Of Solar Electric Power; Previously Posted -- October 16, 2018

Previously posted, from SeekingAlpha:
  • ConEd is a dividend aristocrat that has hiked its dividend for 44 consecutive years.
  • The company's base electric and natural gas distribution businesses generate among the most stable earnings in the utility sector.
  • ConEd recently announced it was buying 981 MW of solar electric power generation assets from Sempra Energy.
  • In January, the company increased its quarterly dividend by 3.6%. The stock currently yields 3.8%.
  • Investors now get a nice combination of yield and renewable energy exposure.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on what you read here or what you think you read.


From Howard Bloom, The God Problem, p. 154:
The sixth century evokes the image of an orchestra expectantly tuning up, each player absorbed in his own instrument only, deaf to the caterwaulings (sic) of the others. Then there is a dramatic silence, the conductor enters the stage, raps three time with the baton, and harmony emerges from the chaos. The maestro is Pythagoras of Samos, whose influence on the ideas, and thereby on the destiny, of the human race was probably greater than of any single man before or after him.
And he didn't even invent that for which he is most famous. 

Another Huge MRO Well In Reunion Bay -- Initial Production: 107K Bbls Crude Oil In 30 Days -- #32972 -- Lamarr USA -- October 16, 2018 -- This May Be A Record-Setting IP In The Bakken

This post is complete. It has been reposted with additional notes at this post.

Note the IP: 8,887. Record IPs, FAQ 9 at this post.

NDIC File No: 32972     API No: 33-053-07751-00-00     CTB No: 219446
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 8/29/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NESE 22-151-94     Footages: 1676 FSL 749 FEL     Latitude: 47.881082     Longitude: -102.688255
Current Well Name: LAMARR USA 13-23TFH
Elevation(s): 2193 KB   2166 GR   2179 GL     Total Depth: 23740     Field: REUNION BAY
Spud Date(s):  11/16/2017
Casing String(s):  9.625" 2042'   7" 11164'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11266-23603     Comp: 8/29/2018     Status: F     Date: 8/31/2018     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 17765     Cum MCF Gas: 16877     Cum Water: 10005
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 8/31/2018     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 8887     IP MCF: 10628     IP Water: 5541
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Well file:
  • geologic report: not yet scanned in
  • fracking report: not yet scanned in
FracFocus: 33-053-07751
  • fracked 6/25/2018 - 7/9/2018
  • 10.8 million gallons of water (typical amount seen in Bakken 2.5); 
  • water: 88.6% by mass
  • sand: 11% by mass
Other posts:
The graphics:

Meanwhile, over at oilprice.com:

Coal Is Dead! Long Live Coal! -- EIA -- October 16, 2018


We're back to practically where we were before President Obama took office. Well, at least to 2011 -- as far back as the chart goes. Wow.

And you know why? All those countries to whom we export coal need that all that coal for all the EVs that they are now driving. Especially in Bangladesh, Nigeria, Cuba, Venezuela, Costa Rica, and Iceland, and Norway.

The Aflac Duck

 Photo from "Warren Photographic." Not sure where the DNA data came from. It would not have been "23andme" since ducks have 40 pair (or 80) chromosomes. Humans have 23 pair (or 46) chromosomes.

"Surprise" Crude Oil Draw -- API -- October 16, 2018 -- Twelve Producing Wells (DUCs) Reported As Completed

API weekly crude oil inventory: surprise crude oil draw. Link here At a draw of 2.1 million bbls, that's a pretty nice draw for oil bulls.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs69583167189

Seven new permits (#35581 - #35587):
  • Operators: XTO (5), Petro-Hunt, CLR
  • Fields: Capa (Williams), Little Knife (Dunn), Cedar Coulee (Dunn)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well pad in NWSW 33-155-95; CLR has another permit in Cedar Coulee
Twelve producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34447, n/d, Whiting, Rennerfeldt 41-3-5TFHU, Epping, t9/18; cum --
  • 34645, 22 (no typo), Eagle Operating, Popinga 32-16, wildcat; Madison pool, north of Williston, near Canada; just west of Lake Darling oil field, north of Donnybrook; t7/18; cum --
  • 34445, n/d, Whiting, Rennerfeldt 41-3-5HU, Epping, t8/18; cum --
  • 32305, 932, XTO, Lund 41X-17H2, Siverston, t3/18; cum 75K 8/18; but off line last month; constrained production before that;
  • 30366, n/d, CLR, Brandvik 6-25H, Corral Creek, t9/18; cum --
  • 32972, 8,887 (no typo/will re-check), MRO, Lamarr USA 13-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 18K in five days -- extrapolates to 107K in 30 days; see this post;
  • 34644, n/d, CLR, Anderson 11X-4HSL, Crazy Man Creek, t9/18; cum --
  • 32812, n/d, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, Corral Creek, t9/18; cum --
  • 30278, 2,706, WPX, Joseph Eagle 19-18HD, Mandaree, t6/18; cum 126K in less than 4 months;
  • 30277, 2,749, WPX, Joseph Eagle 19-18HZ, Mandaree, t5/18; cum 99K in less than 3 months; now off-line;
  • 31798, n/d, CLR, Mittlestadt 5-17H1, Chimney Butte, t9/18; cum --
  • 31800, n/d, CLR, Mittlestadt 7-17H, Chimney Butte, t9/18; cum --

Tight Oil / Shale -- Drive Majors' Output To New Highs -- Rigzone -- October 16, 2018

This is really quite amazing.

From 2000 (Montana) to 2007 (North Dakota) and then through 2012 (height of the boom) it was all about small private companies and small to medium-size publicly-traded companies.

The poster child for the Bakken: Harold Hamm.

Now, eighteen years into the US shale revolution, Rigzone is reporting that the majors are now reporting new production records -- due to tight oil / shale oil. Amazing, when you think about it.

Memo to self: note to Jane Nielson.

From the linked article:
U.S. unconventionals will be crucial for oil majors in the near future – and the majors are taking note.
In a new report released by Wood Mackenzie, the potential of unconventionals in the Lower 48 is examined by looking at five U.S. majors (BP plc, Chevron Corp., Equinor ASA, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell plc).
“Following BP’s $10.5 billion deal with BHP, all of the supermajors have a footprint in the Permian Basin, and are poised to deliver an unprecedented phase of production growth that will see output reach new highs over the next decade,” Roy Martin, research analyst in WoodMac’s corporate upstream team.
How important is shale to the majors?
Without their volumes, collective production from the majors would enter long-term decline from 2020.  
The majors:
The big player here seems to be ExxonMobil, who has the most acreage, biggest resource and highest peak production.Martin said no other major has comparable diversity across the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus plays.
In the Bakken, XOM has XTO. From my perspective: blind luck, but I could be wrong. I often am. 
BP’s deal with BHP “transformational” and makes it possible for BP to overtake Exxon to become the leading shale gas producer.
Chevron’s dominance in the Permian (with 2.2 million net acres) has made its portfolio the most valuable.  
For the record, my favorite major (not to be confused with "my favorite Martian") is Chevron.
“Underpinned by its low-royalty Permian position, Chevron possesses the most attractive Internal Rate of Returns (IRR) on new U.S. conventional projects among the majors,” Martin said. “Its future investment in the resource theme of $54 billion is second only to ExxonMobil.”
Again, the emphasis is on the Permian. That's fine. North Dakota mineral owners are quietly going to the bank every month.

Meanwhile, over at oilprice.com:


Earnings season begins

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Earnings -- 3Q18

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

Earnings Calendar

November 8, 2018
DNR, forecast -- 11 cents;
NOG, forecast -- 11 cents; it was 4 cents one year ago; 

November 5, 2018
    • non-GAAP EPS, 8 cents, misses by 4 cents
    • GAAP EPS, 20 cents, beats by 8 cents
November 2, 2018:
November 1, 2018:
  •  EOG: huge; income of $1.2 billion vs $101 million one year ago;
  • AAPL: EPS, $2.91 vs; 2.78; revenue, $62.9 billion vs $61.6 billion; huge beats; 46.9 million iPhones sold vs 47.5 million forecast; average selling price of iPhone, $793 vs Wall Street expecting, $751; AAPL shares down 5%; analyst: unhappy with iPhone sales (LOL) and guidance; 
  • Starbucks: beats across the board; SBUX up 7.5% after earnings released; this will generate a lot of talk tomorrow;
  • CBS: beat on top and bottom; shares up about a percent after earnings released; "best 3rd quarter ever";
  • Kraft Heinz: misses earnings; beats on revenue; shares plunge; down 6.5%; continues its yearly downtrend; in the food space, only Campbells has done worse; this will generate a lot of talk tomorrow;
Shell said its quarterly profit on a current cost-of-supplies basis—a number similar to the net income that U.S. oil companies report—was $5.6 billion, up from $3.7 billion a year earlier.
Still, on an adjusted basis, its results came in slightly below the company-provided analyst consensus.
Investors, still burned from the sharp decline in oil prices in 2014, have taken a tough line on such surprises in recent quarters. Shares in the company were down nearly 3% in early London trading, weighed down by the price of oil. The price of international Brent crude futures have slid from a four-year high earlier this month and the market is continuing to sell off.
October 31, 2018:
October 30, 2018:
  • GE: cut its 24-cent dividend to 12 cents in September, 2017; today it cut its 12-cent dividend to one penny; will save the cash-starved company around $4 billion; and, it's actually worse than it looks;  misses on both revenues and earnings; a loss of $1.15 vs earnings of 39 cents yoy; adjusted, earnings were 27 cents but that still missed estimate of 28 cents (wow); revenues? $31 billion for the quarter but missed estimates of 32 billion; wow
  • Baker Hughes, BHGE: misses on both earnings, and revenue
  • KO beats 
  • OKE: beats; huge; as expected; link here
  • Facebook: flat; beats on earnings; misses slightly on revenue; I honestly don't think analysts know what to do
October 29, 2018:
  • CLR: 3Q18 results; Bakken production, 167,643 boepd; added two rigs to the Bakken; now with eight; many records set; earnings beat expectations
October 25, 2018: TSLA, COP huge.

October 22, 2018: the banks report today. Prior to market opening, stocks were up; now, early morning trading, market continues its downward trend, down 105 points on the Dow (irrelevant).  HAL revenue, profits beat but shares down 2%;

October 19, 2018: SLB, nice earnings, revenues miss; overall: uninspiring.

October 18, 2018: BK -- CEO says "mixed results." Just a year ago this stock paying 19 cents/share; then 24 cents; now 28 cents/share (second quarter to pay this amount).

October 17, 2018: KMI, adjusted 21 cents vs 15 cents previous year; EPS of 31 cents soundly beat estimates of 22 cents; included sale of TransMountain

October 16, 2018
  • IBM: misses on revenue; falls 4%
  • Netflix: CNBC senior analyst seems surprised by Netflix beat. Huge. On all levels. Netflix up 14%; up $49; now trading at $395.

Later, at the close

The Natural Gas Story Could Be The Energy Story Of 2018 - 2019 -- October 16, 2018

Link here over at Argus.
A House of Commons select committee will carry out an inquiry into whether the UK has enough gas storage after events last winter heightened concerns about supply security, its chair Rachel Reeves said today.
The cross-party Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) select committee will take evidence on 31 October to assess whether the government has the "necessary measures" in place to cope with a repeat of last March's gas deficit warning, Labour MP Reeves said.
"Following the closure of Rough there have been issues over our ability to ensure supply in the winter," she said at the Energy UK Annual Conference 2018.
The UK issued its first gas balancing alert in seven years on 1 March, as cold weather and supply disruptions left the system short.
While the system balanced without market intervention, it led to a record NBP prompt price spike and prompted calls from industrial users for a government review including subsidies for new and existing storage facilities.
The UK government said Rough being available at the time would have made little difference to supply security and maintained the UK benefits from diverse supply sources.
Meanwhile, over at oilprice.com:

EVs -- Rambling

I spoke about driverless cars with an individual in Starbucks this morning whose business was trucking/logistics. He was not convinced of their usefulness. At one time I was not convinced either but I am a convert. Driverless cars are a bigger deal than most people think, I think.

On the other hand, he thought that EVs had now become "accepted." He came to that conclusion when the top three (GM, Ford, FiatChrysler) and/or the top four (add Mercedes) came on board and embraced EVs. I did not pursue the conversation.

I'm not convinced.

I don't think folks understand all the obstacles before EVs can go mainstream.

Something like 40 to 50% of Americans do not live in their own single unit home. In the short term, single unit homes are where EVs will be charged. Almost half of all Americans would be resistant to buying an EV simply because they don't live in their own home. Then we get to range, range anxiety, charging availability when away from home, and time to fully charge an EV.

Worse Timing Ever Or "Dead Cat Bounce" -- October 16, 2018


Later, 3:20 p.m.: talking head on CNBC now admits analysts are always slow to adjust earnings forecast when "things" change. Analysts did dot not take into account the Trump tax bill. Earlier this month (or was it last month?) a talking head on CNBC said that the biggest (positive) effect on earnings from the Trump tax bill would be seen in 4Q18. Note: these are earnings for 3Q18. So, if one thinks the big quarter will be the fourth quarter, look at these numbers coming out in 3Q18. 

Later, 3:13 p.m.: others --
  • IBM - misses on revenue; falls 4%
Later, 3:06 p.m.: CNBC senior analyst seems surprised by Netflix beat. It was huge. On all levels. Netflix up 14%; up $49; now trading at $395. 

Later, at the close

Original Post

Prescient. CNBC predicted the Dow (irrelevant) would jump 500 points today -- and predicted that well before the market opened today (link here):

496. Right now (1:35 p.m., October 16, 2018), the Dow (irrelevant) is up 496 points. Could the Dow be up by 500 points any time today? Don't know. Just asking. CNBC crawler says Dow was up 500 points at least once during the day. Crawler: stocks are surging on earnings. On pace for best day since March, 2018.

Proof That Pocahontas Is No Longer Being Taken Seriously 

The EIA Link Everyone Needs To Bookmark -- From A Reader -- October 16, 2018

The link.

The link is now a permanent link at the sidebar at the right, near the top, just under "new wells reporting."

A reader provided the link, perhaps one of the best links I failed to link. The reader will get a lifetime subscription to the blog as a way of thanks. Thank you. 

The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+ 64 -- October 16, 2018

Late. I was going to post this yesterday and then forgot. Yesterday afternoon, after watching the market and the news -- particularly the Khashoggi news -- it appeared to me that the US stock market (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, etc) simply "hit the re-set button."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Not late: watch this space. I'm thinking Drudge Report will link the Heidi Heitkamp "I Am Sparticus" moment by tomorrow. If not, Matt dropped the ball. LOL. If folks don't know the story, check out The Bismarck Tribune today. Wow.

The list. I am debating whether to post Heidi's "I Am Sparticus" list. My hunch is that the list will soon disappear from the web. But Heidi is going to have to talk to a lot of folks to get that list removed. Reminds me of the movie in which Meryl Streep starred, "Florence Foster Jenkins." The question not being asked: where did Heidi obtain such an interesting list? Four columns of names; each column 30 names long; cities where the women live, and in North Dakota, towns and cities are so small it won't take much googling to get mailing addresses or phone numbers of most on that list. More at Grand Forks Herald.

Boom! Making America great -- job openings hit record 7.136 million in August. Inflationary? We'll see. Job opportunities? You betcha. This should drive the market down today -- this news will encourage the Fed to raise rates in December. The Dow (irrelevant) following the news: up almost 300 points.

They're Reading The Blog
We Are All Native Americans

I posted my note at 4:47 p.m. on October 15, 2018.

The WSJ posted its editorial late in the evening, 7:17 p.m. ET. Just saying.

The Book Page

Regular readers probably know my reading habits by now.

If one has similar reading habits, I highly recommend Howard Bloom's The God Problem, c. 2012. One may not care for the author's writing style. I get a bit tired of it, but cutting through the chaff, getting to the barley seed, it is incredibly interesting. I'm only through page 126 of a 563-page book (with an additional 96 pages of notes) so I do not know how the book turns out but so far I am really enjoying it. But I can only read a few pages at a time; there is so much information to digest.

I've not yet gone to wiki to see the "origin" of the 12-inch ruler and I have no plans to do so. Regardless of the wiki story, I have my own myth -- it may be what others say or it may not; I don't know but ...

I thought of that when I went from the Sumerians trick of making perfect right angles, and then the Egyptians carrying the trick one step farther -- taking a rope at least 12-feet long and putting knots at 3, 4, and 5 feet. The rest is history, as they say. Brilliant.

3+4+5 = 12.

12 inches in a foot. Things don't  just happen. 

From the book, page 122:
The pyramid at Giza, commissioned by Pharoah Khufu in 2580 BC absolutely, no excuses, required perfect right angles. The pyramid required a perfect right-angle foundation. It would be the biggest such structure ever -- forty-eight modern stories tall. Two hundred and eighty arm-lengths high, two hundred and eighty Egyptian cubits. The height of roughly one hundred peasants' huts piled on top of each other. The height of seven ziggurats. The success or failure of a twenty-year-long project will depend on the precision of right angles. The pyramid will require 2.3 million blocks of stone. Blocks of stone whose smallest will be two and a half tons, and the biggest will max out at thirteen tons. It will require 800,000 workers....

Bad Timing Or "Dead Cat Bounce" -- October 16, 2018

Morning Note -- October 16, 2018 -- Bone Saws Are The New Box Cutters

From a presidential tweet this morning, a president with a great sense of humor and willing to share. This was part of a tweet thread that began with a tweet from President Trump:

LNG export terminals: link to an old post with list of LNG export terminals planned along the Texas / Louisiana coast. 


The gloves are off: the other day I wrote that "the gloves are off," now that the world has come down hard on Saudi Arabia following the murder of Kashoggi. From Bloomberg:
For 45 years, it’s been considered out of bounds for Saudi Arabia. But all of a sudden, Riyadh made what many read as a veiled threat to use the kingdom’s oil wealth as a political weapon -- something unheard of since the 1973 Arab embargo that triggered the first oil crisis.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, said on Sunday it would retaliate against any punitive measures linked to the disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi with even “stronger ones." In an implicit reference to the kingdom’s petroleum wealth, the statement noted the Saudi economy “has an influential and vital role in the global economy.”
Roger Diwan, a longstanding OPEC watcher at consultant IHS Markit Ltd., said the Saudi comments broke “an essential oil market taboo.”
This had to have been the most well-planned state-level murder ever planned. International. One or two private jets land at Istanbul airport, arriving from Saudi Arabia. Fourteen thugs. Diplomatic bags? Fourteen guys just happen to arrive by plane the very same time the victim visits the consulate. One wonders to what degree the government of Turkey played a role. We've been through Istanbul numerous times: it's not an easy airport to get through with regard to passport control and customs.

I wonder if Mike Pompeo asked the Saudi King which brand they used. It looks like bone saws are the "new" box cutters.


LNG Texas: Canada has their "LNG Canada" -- one project. And we still haven't seen how that will play out. But Texas? Texas has an "LNG Texas" project, too -- actually more than one can follow. Today, Rigzone is reporting that another LNG Texas project "advances":
NextDecade Corp. has secured a draft environmental impact statement (EIS) from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for its Rio Grande LNG project near Brownsville, Texas, along with its associated Rio Bravo Pipeline, the company reported Friday afternoon.
“We appreciate the FERC staff’s continued commitment to the review of our project,” Matt Schatzman, NextDecade’s president and CEO, said in a written statement. “The draft EIS represents a culmination of several years of analysis and evaluation in conjunction with multiple federal, state and local agencies and stakeholders.”
FERC, which reviews and permits LNG facilities in the United States, issued the draft EIS as required by the National Environmental Policy Act. The document follows a detailed review of environmental, engineering, social and other aspects of NextDecade’s proposed project. The 27-million-tonne-per-annum Rio Grande LNG export facility would receive natural gas from the Agua Dulce gas hub near Corpus Christi via the company’s 4.5 billion cubic foot per day Rio Bravo Pipeline.
Comment: there are many, many blog posts on LNG export terminals in Texas / Louisiana -- this post, at one time, provided a fairly comprehensive list of such terminals.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, October 16, 2018:
  • 34686, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 31X-10D, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 34474, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 31X-10D, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 34079, SI/NC, XTO, Ravin 21X-15A, Siverston, no production data,
  • 29774, 1,674, Slawson, Gobbler Federal 3-35-26H, Big Bend, 43 stages; 8.3 million lbs, t9/18; cum --
Active rigs;

Active Rigs69583167189

RBN Energy: the LNG Canada project will impact gas markets, but not soon enough.
The final investment decisions by Royal Dutch Shell and its partners in the LNG Canada liquefaction and export project in British Columbia are a long-term boon to Western Canadian natural gas producers and to TransCanada, which now can proceed with its planned Coastal GasLink pipeline across the full breadth of BC. But the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat and the new 420-mile, 2.1-Bcf/d pipe won’t come online until 2023 — an eternity for producers in the region’s Montney and Duvernay shale plays, who through much of 2018 have been enduring profit-crushing price discounts for their gas relative to Henry Hub. Today, we consider the largest North American liquefaction/LNG export project to be sanctioned in several years, and why BC and Alberta producers wish it were coming online much sooner.