Monday, August 24, 2015

Anyone Who Thought Fracking Was An Option In California -- Never Going To Happen -- August 24, 2015

California is sinking faster than originally thought due to drought; water being sucked from aquifers:
California is sinking even faster than scientists had thought, new NASA satellite imagery shows.
Some areas of the Golden State are sinking more than 2 inches per month, the imagery reveals. Though the sinking, called subsidence, has long been a problem in California, the rate is accelerating because the state's extreme drought is fueling voracious groundwater pumping.
"Because of increased pumping, groundwater levels are reaching record lows — up to 100 feet (30 meters) lower than previous records," Mark Cowin, director of California's Department of Water Resources, said in a statement. "As extensive groundwater pumping continues, the land is sinking more rapidly, and this puts nearby infrastructure at greater risk of costly damage."
What's more, this furious groundwater pumping could have long-term consequences. If the land shrinks too much, and for too long, it can permanently lose its ability to store groundwater.
The state's sinking isn't new: California has long suffered from subsidence, and some parts are now a few dozen feet lower than they were in 1925, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
If fracking requires fresh water, it ain't gonna happen in California.

A Side Of Beef -- A Slice Of Americana -- Nothing About The Bakken -- For The Granddaughters

A little local Americana for the "big city" folks who might have accidentally stumbled upon this blog.

I have kept the "contact information" confidential / anonymous for various reasons. If seriously interested and can't find contact information any other way, you can probably contact the butcher in Miles City, MT.

Anyway, a reader sent me this:
We have two blue ribbon 4-H steers available by the half. A 4-H sale purchaser bought the Premium & we brought them home.
Scheduled for slaughter on September 8 at Quality Meats of MT in Miles City.
Top-quality, premium beef - asking only $2.60/lb. of hanging weight. A half will weigh APPROXIMATELY 400 lbs.
We will deliver them to Miles City, buyer pays the processing (approx. $250/half).
Fill your freezer with very affordable premium beef - they will go fast. Call XXX-XXX or message me if interested.
Omaha Steaks is running me about $40/lb for filet mignon, well-trimmed, wrapped in bacon. In bite-size portions, it doesn't cost all that much. LOL. If I use coupons, free shipping, loyalty rewards, and a sob story on the phone, I can sometimes get the cost down to maybe $30/lb for the second best filet mignon in the world (the best would be from Miles City, no doubt). By the way, I did not understand cuts of meat until I started "following" Omaha Steaks.

When I was growing up in Williston, my dad would occasionally buy a "side of beef." He would have the butcher down the street prepare a gazillion little white-paper-wrapped packages and then mom would arrange them in our freezer in the garage. Over the course of my 17 years living at home, he probably did this two or three times. Those were the good years, no doubt. Must have been fourteen or fifteen years of my dad living paycheck to paycheck.

By the way, I also remember Mom serving us beef tongue on more than one occasion. I don't recall the taste, but I do recall the toughness. Looking back, I'm sure my mom was using what little money she might have had at the time to stretch it as far as it could go. I can't imagine tongue costing all that much; for all I know, the butcher gave it to her free. Mom was quite remarkable in stretching the grocery budget.

Looking back, my hunch is that we were a lot closer to being poor than I ever knew -- really poor -- but we always ate very, very well. Mom was always trying something new.

Rhubarb pie was my favorite -- rhubarb from the neighbor's garden, for free. The rest of the pie "from scratch."

When I went to pick the rhubarb, I remember picking peas and eating them fresh off the "vine."

Zavanna Simmental Wells in Long Creek, East Of Williston

Please look at these two posts first:
A reader alerted me to four more Zavanna wells in the same area that need to be watched:
  • 28591, 726, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 1H, Long Creek, 50 stages, 4.0 million lbs, t6/15; cum 266K 3/17;
  • 28592, 2,024, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 2TFH, Long Creek, 50 stages, 4.1million lbs, t5/15; cum 236K 3/17;
  • 28593, 564, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 3H, Long Creek, 50 stages, 5.6 million lbs; t5/15; cum 255K 3/17;
  • 28594, 1,676, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 4TFH, Long Creek, 50 stages, 5.8 million lbs, t5/15; cum 310K 3/17;
At time of original post, none of these wells had been on-line more than a few days total over the course of two months. 

This looks like a good example with a direct comparison between middle Bakken and Three Forks first bench at this location. Years ago, Lynn Helms said that the Three Forks may be a better payzone than the middle Bakken.  

****************************

#28591:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20153135626347961872353161445748125
BAKKEN7-20151090098876688412721105652007
BAKKEN6-20152140913711862202501995
BAKKEN5-201537977813645260602561

#28592:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20153134495334571677540754371813111
BAKKEN7-201514171091658888971914417985950
BAKKEN6-2015159759701500
BAKKEN5-2015797869594673315036014932

 #28593:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2015191736516701124241948919028178
BAKKEN7-2015141261112008968413361119061246
BAKKEN6-2015482288004520812145012085
BAKKEN5-20157325831945959613906035

 #28594:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20163122607211713250453842515101870
BAKKEN12-20153110600105215097722086202951329
BAKKEN11-201572790257314273665832403314
BAKKEN10-201527195731910039436378902716310325
BAKKEN9-201520886203873514784128161670
BAKKEN8-20151913378124391678221625199461396
BAKKEN7-2015312066119351252303422733461304
BAKKEN6-20151216216157851701022997170915727
BAKKEN5-201512122831204213745982509646

Oh, So Politically Incorrect -- August 24, 2015

I wish I could take credit for this one, but I can't.

Don sent me this one: Fox News missed an opportunity to be totally politically incorrect by suggesting that the Joe Biden - Elizabeth Warren meeting this past weekend should have been headlined as a "pow-wow."

And held in a box seat in the NDSU football stadium.

Another Major Permit Numbering Error Over At The NDIC -- August 24, 2015

This follows a similar permit numbering error on August 19, 2015.

In today's daily activity report, there were five permits, but there was a gap of four permits, permit numbers 31845 - 31848, inclusive.

The scout tickets show these permits as:
  • 31845, loc, CLR, Bridger 7-14H2, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 31846, loc, CLR, Bridger 8-14H, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 31847, loc, CLR, Bridger 9-14H1, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 31848, loc, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-1003H-6, Beaver Lodge
These will be added to today's daily activity report summary posted earlier.

It appears the NDIC permit numbering error for August 19, 2015, has been cleared up. As expected, the duplicate permit numbers remain EOG Austin wells in Parshall oil field, and the CLR Corsican permits in the same field (duplicate permit numbers) on the GIS map server have simply disappeared.

What Do You Get When You Cross A Great Operator (Whiting) With Some Great Sites (KOG)? Huge Wells -- August 24, 2015

Active rigs:


8/24/201508/24/201408/24/201308/24/201208/24/2011
Active Rigs75192183188195

Two (2) wells coming off confidential list Tuesday:
  • 29162, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-10, Blue Buttes,
  • 30388, SI/NC, SM Energy, Heather 1B-15HN, West Ambrose,
Nine (9) new permits (see NDIC error) --
  • Operators: Whiting (3), CLR (3), Hess, MRO, Slawson
  • Fields: Sioux (McKenzie), Bell (Stark), Rattlesnake Point (Dunn), Beaver Lodge (Williams), Reunion Bay (Mountrail), Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments: there was a gap in the permit numbering system today, omitting the CLR Bridger wells; I found the CLR Bridger wells among the scout tickets.
Whiting canceled three (3) permits: all P Vance wells in Williams County.

Three (3) producing wells completed:
  • 26948, 531, CLR, Oakdale 5-13H, Jim Creek, 4 sections, t8/15; cum 10K 6/15; choked way back;
  • 30598, 3,076, Whiting/KOG, Skunk Creek 1-8-17-15H3, South Fork, Three Forks; background gas averaged 1,645 units; TD called early at 19,562' MD after a suspected mud motor failure; spud April 6; cease drilling April 17, 2015; 11.5 days drilling; t8/15; cum --
  • 30599, 3,785, Whiting/KOG, Skunk Creek 1-8-17-15H, South Fork, middle Bakken, gas averaged 1,105 along the lateral; 14.3 days drilling;  t7/15; cum --

Another Presidential First -- First President In 122 Years To Have Not Seen A Major Hurricane Strike The US -- August 24, 2015

Link here
"President Obama is the first president in 122 years, since Benjamin Harrison was in office, who has not seen a major hurricane strike the U.S. during his time in office. In a statement on its website, NOAA expressed concern that Americans might suffer from “hurricane amnesia.” The second longest stretch between major hurricanes hitting the continenatla U.S. was the eight years between 1860 and 1869, NOAA records show."

The CSMonitor answers the question why so few hurricanes this past decade:
Unusually high atmospheric wind shear caused by a historic El Nino event in the Pacific, cooler than normal Atlantic water temperatures, air pressure differentials between the Atlantic and the East Pacific, and even dust from Saharan sand storms all play into dynamics that affect the easterly African weather waves that sometimes curl into Atlantic hurricanes.
Warmists had predicted more extreme weather due to global warming. In fact, they went from global warming to climate change to extreme weather. And now that extreme weather is ... oh, not so extreme ... they are looking for a reason ... that fits the story line. The one explanation I've seen "everywhere" is the fact that the Atlantic Ocean is actually cooler.

"Everyone" knows warm oceans provide the energy for hurricanes; we learned that from Walter Cronkite.

But politically correct writers and warmists come up with as many reasons as possible, including Saharan dust storms, to bury the real reason, "cooler than normal Atlantic water temperatures."

See if you can find that phrase in the list of reasons the CSMonitor lists to explain the "drought" of hurricanes for the past decade, the decade in which there has been no evidence of global warming despite the fact that atmospheric CO2 has risen .... OMG ... from 398 to 402 parts per million, a delta that is so small it's hard to convert to a percentage -- 400 / 1,000, 000 = 0.04 percent. That's not four percent. That's four-hundreds of one percent. A delta of 4/400 per million would be ... well, really, really small. Immeasurable. Except by warmists who can see really tiny things.

September, 2015, NDIC Hearing Docket Agenda Is Posted -- August 24, 2015

Disclaimer: these summaries are for my personal use only; you are free to read them; don't quote me on them; there will be typographical and factual errors.  If this is important to you go to the source. Link here.

Past dockets are archived here.

Highlights. These are just the cases that caught my eye the first time through. This was done very, very quickly; it was not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors. The full summary is posted here.

There is almost nothing of interest in this month's agenda. Many of the cases had to do with reducing setback rules. 

Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Only Five (5) Pages

24462, BR, Pershing-Bakken, 22 wells on a 2560-acre stand-up unit; 2 additional wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; McKenzie County
24463, HRC, Antelope-Sanish, 13 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie

Thursday, September 17, 2015
Only Eight (8) Pages

24465, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; multiple wells; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; multiple wells, Williams
24466, Zavanna, Stony Creek-Bakken, establish four overlapping 1280-acre units; multiple wells; Williams
24467, Statoil, Banks-Bakken, reduce setbacks from the "heel and toe from 200 feet to 50 feet; and for well bores greater than 45 degrees from perpendicular, reduce the setback from 500 feet to 200 feet, McKenzie County
24491, CLR, Antelope-Sanish, 13 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie County

This Is Not An Investment Site -- August 24, 2015

The AP is reporting that Southern is buying AGL Resources:
Southern Co. is buying AGL Resources Inc. for approximately $7.93 billion, which would create the second-biggest utility company in the U.S. by customer base.
The combined business will include 11 regulated electric and natural gas distribution companies, serving approximately 9 million customers in nine states. Customers will continue to be served by their current gas and electric utility companies.
Atlanta-based Southern will pay $66 in cash for each AGL share, a 38 percent premium to the company's Friday closing price of $47.86.
Southern and AGL put the deal's enterprise value at about $12 billion. The enterprise value figure typically includes assumed debt.
Both Southern and AGL are based in Atlanta; AGL will become a subsidiary of Southern.

Utilities by customer base, 2012.
By market cap, 2014.
History and full list here.

My hunch: the number one concern for utilities -- net metering -- and the utilities will win on this one.

**************************
California Says "No" To Ultra-Rich For Tesla Tax Breaks
The "Simply" Rich Will Still Get The Tax Breaks

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:
Hundreds of Californians with household incomes of $500,000 or more have collected state subsidies for buying electric and hybrid cars under a program that is criticized as a taxpayer handout to the wealthy.
State regulators, in response, are restricting the subsidies to Californians who earn less than $250,000 or couples taking in less than $500,000. But that standard is also under fire from some lawmakers and anti-tax activists, who ask why subsidies worth up to $5,000 are given to people who can already afford the cars.
It's a small nail, a very small nail in Tesla's coffin, but a nail just the same. I assume those folks with incomes over $500,000 bought Tesla's for the "cachet" not for the tax savings. It was their accountants who took advantage of the tax savings. I doubt this will have any real effect on actual sales, but it's a huge PR story.

On the other hand, when a company is "delivering" only a handful of cars, every sales counts, and even the loss of a dozen sales might be felt.

My hunch is the income limit will drop in California; any other states subsidizing Tesla sales will follow suit; and, no new states will offer any rebates to the rich for buying a Tesla.

Cobalt Is Bolting; Emergency OPEC Meeting? Won't Happen -- August 24, 2015; John Kemp's Thoughts

The other day I mentioned that things were not looking good for either Angola or Nigeria. More evidence today that the observation was very, very accurate. Cobalt is bolting; it will sells its off-shore Angola interests back to state-owned Sonangol:
Cobalt International Energy Inc. has agreed to sell its interests in two blocks in deep water offshore Angola to state-owned Sonangol for $1.75 billion and will concentrate on appraisal and development of deepwater discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico.
Cobalt, Houston, holds 40% interest each in Angolan Blocks 21/09 and 20/11 and operates both. It claims to have opened the Kwanza basin presalt play with the Orca and Lontra discoveries on Block 20/11 and the Mavinga, Cameia, and Bicuar discoveries on Block 21/09 to the south.
Of the discoveries, Cameia is closest to development. Cobalt said a final investment decision is expected by year end. It estimates the Cameia resource at 300-500 million bbl and expects productivity of 30,000 b/d/well of 39°- 41° gravity oil. Cobalt will operate both blocks until replaced by Sonangol or another operator. Sonangol will bear all costs in the interim.
Gee, just when Cameia was about to come on line, also. I wonder if Sonangol has the finances to develop that field "in the interim."

As a reminder:
Refineries are configured to operate most efficiently when processing certain types of crude

  • light oil: 32 - 40 degrees
  • above 40 commonly seen from shale basins such as the Eagle Ford and the Bakken
  • ultra-light: above 50 (again, from the Eagle Ford and the Bakken); generally known as condensates
  • diluted bitumen from Alberta oil sands: 22 - 31 degrees
  • heavier crudes require more complex refiners (think, more expensive)
  • sulfur must be removed during processing; heavier crudes, more sulphur
Short history: historically, going back to the early days in the US, refiners were optimized for light US oil. At the end of the 20th century, with the relative demise of the US on-shore oil and gas industry, with heavier oil being the major oil available, refiners spent billions of dollars retro-fitting their refineries to handle heavy oil. They were betting on the come that western Canadian oil sands would be flowing down the Keystone. In fact, that failed, and lo and behold, the Bakken revolution. Unfortunately, it was the revolution of the "light brigade." Light oil would not work in US refineries along the coast and those refiners had to scramble to blend overseas heavy oil with US light oil to make it work. Now, the refiners have invested huge amounts of money to optimize their refineries to handle light oil.

Angola's off-shore oil at 39 - 41 is absolutely not needed by the US which has a glut of that lighter oil. Angola will have to look elsewhere to sell its light oil.

******************************
Emergency OPEC Meeting?

Over the weekend I said to myself I need to post a note to the effect that the next regularly scheduled  OPEC meeting is in December, 2015, but an emergency meeting before December would speak volumes. I did not really discuss with myself the likelihood of whether an emergency meeting would be called.

Wow, I wish I had posted that. Whatever.

Today, Platts:
Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Sunday he supported the idea of an emergency OPEC meeting to discuss how the oil producer group might respond to the latest oil price rout that on Friday saw US light crude trade below $40/barrel for the first time in six years.
However, he added, such a meeting was unlikely to take place because of what he called the "political objectives" of some member countries. He did not elaborate. 
Exactly. I think OPEC needs to meet but they can't meet for "political reasons." First, the meeting would result in inter-tribal squabbling and would end with no "true" consensus. Second, just calling the meeting would be interpreted as Saudi "losing face."

There could be some informal meetings, but the real problem is this: OPEC as a functioning organization is dead. Venezuela, Ecuador, and west African OPEC nations are on the outside looking in; they will be the first to fall. One might add Libya to that group except that country is already in free fall.

If Saudi has last this long, they will easily last three more months, if nothing else, just to keep from "losing face."

The tag "Price_Slump_2014_2015" is for events related to the crude oil price slump between October 1, 2014, and September 30, 2015. Which, by the way, is the US federal government's fiscal year.

******************************************
John Kemp's Thoughts

John Kemp link here. (Archived)
Saudi Arabia's strategy for rebalancing the oil market through a period of lower prices shows few signs of working so far - with rival producers claiming they will raise output even as prices slide to new lows.
Saudi policymakers insist the kingdom will maintain its market share and let low prices take care of the surplus by forcing cuts from higher cost producers and stimulating fuel demand. 
With prices down by more than half compared with the same point in 2014, oil consumption is growing at some of the fastest rates for a decade. 
There are signs output growth from shale drillers and other producers outside OPEC is starting to slow, but it is not falling yet. 
Within OPEC, other producers, principally Iraq and Iran, are determined to continue raising their output even as prices slump. 
"We will be raising our oil production at any cost and we have no alternative," Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said in a news story carried on his ministry's website. 
"If Iran's oil production hike is not done promptly, we will be losing our market share permanently," Zanganeh added. 
Saudi Arabia's strategy may not be enough to eliminate the surplus and lead to a sustained rise in prices in the next two or three years. 
The resilience of non-OPEC output despite slumping prices, coupled with a continued battle for market share within OPEC itself, contributed to the "lost decade" in oil markets after 1986. 
Oil producers and investors fear the same stalemate could be playing out again.
Later in the article:
"Saudi Arabia believes that the price war eventually will eliminate much oil from non-OPEC producers, such as Britain and the United States, because their oil is too expensive to produce," the Wall Street Journal wrote in 1986. The exit of this oil would make more room for OPEC production growth.
But while non-OPEC production stopped growing for four years after 1985, it defied expectations it would fall, and started rising strongly again in the early 1990s. 
MIT economist Morris Adelman explained: "The shock of the oil price chilled investment. Non-OPEC production barely increased from 1985 to 1992. But its failure to decline was a great disappointment." 
One reason production failed to decline was lower prices stimulated a drive to make production much more efficient, including the first widespread use of three dimensional seismic surveys and horizontal drilling. [Think Bakken -- world's largest micro-seismic array, I believe.]
Finally:
There are key differences between 1986 and the oil market today. In 1986, there were estimated to be 6 million barrels per day of spare capacity shut in among OPEC members, compared with less than 2 million currently.
But there are also echoes, including Saudi Arabia's insistence it will not cut production, attempts by Iran and Iraq to boost theirs, and the resilience, so far, of non-OPEC output in the face of slumping prices. 
Saudi Arabia's strategy could yet be vindicated. It takes time for a price crisis to work through to changes in production and consumption. 
There are lags in the production data. Output from shale producers and the non-OPEC non-shale sector could already be falling even though it is not evident in the official numbers yet.
Much, much more at the link, including other links and references.


Saudi Arabia has much more to fear from Iran than from the United States.

Monday, August 24, 2015

Active rigs:


8/24/201508/24/201408/24/201308/24/201208/24/2011
Active Rigs76192183188195

RBN Energy: would it make sense to move the market pricing at the Henry Hub to Appalaachia (Utica/Marcellus)? (Archived.)
As natural gas production growth in the U.S. has shifted from the Gulf Coast region to the Northeast’s   Marcellus and Utica shale, some have suggested that time may have passed by Louisiana’s Henry Hub as the national benchmark for all U.S. gas prices, and have questioned whether it can maintain its position as the third largest physical commodity futures contract in the world.   Should Henry be replaced by some pricing point in Appalachia?  Is Henry really in trouble?  In today’s blog, we continue our series looking at what makes Henry Hub tick with a closer look at the implications of changing physical and futures volumes at the hub.
The answer: no.

Like The Market, Temperatures Continue To Fall -- August 24, 2015

The other day it was noted that the Obama administration fudged temperature data in the Washington, DC, area, of all things.

About that same I mentioned that it appeared winter was coming early this year in the midwest with surprise snowfall in Calgary, Alberta (Canada) in the middle of summer, and in a post yesterday a reader wrote to tell me how cold it was in North Dakota. There was a hint that Hettinger, ND, hit a record low. Today we learn that indeed Sunday's low for Hettinger was a record low (dynamic link).

I may be misreading the almanac, but Hettinger's low for yesterday was 37 degrees, a record; the previous low for yesterday in Hettinger was 42 degrees. Today, the previous low had been 42 degrees. Today, the low went to 32, a new record. If I'm reading that correctly that's a 10-degree delta. Wow. I'm probably misreading something. [I wonder if the sensors/thermometers are working correctly; NOAA may have to send out a technician to replace the sensors, as they did in Washington, DC.]

And frost is now being reported on the roofs in Bowman, ND.

Freezing -- 29 degrees -- in Casper, Wyoming.  The previous record low was back in 1966, and get this: it was 41 degrees. The "normal" low for this time of year is 50 degrees. And indications, again, are for a colder winter than usual.

Yes, this is just weather I know, but 19 years of weather starts to add up to climate.

****************************************
Scare-Mongering By The Warmists

MichiganLive published an open letter from a solar-installation owner that "net metering would destroy solar investments:
I am writing in regard to [Michigan] Senate Bill 438. My interests are self-preservation, ensuring Michigan is looking to and working toward a sustainable energy plan, and reversing the effects of global warming.
Self Preservation I have a 10 kilowatt net-metered Solar Panel System. I have invested my time, ingenuity, and money in establishing this system. It was not done with grants, handouts or contracts with public utilities (under the Experimental Advanced Renewable Program). I chose net metering as defined by PA 295 and entered into an interconnection and parallel operating agreement with Consumers Energy.
S.B. 438 is payola legislation to reverse the net-metering law and return domination to fossil fuel and the monopoly that the utilities so enjoyed. With the responsibility of changing the status quo comes the assured certainty of offending those who have worked so hard to preserve it. This Senate bill is a transparent attempt to eviscerate solar from the ownership of individuals such as myself.
And then yada, yada, yada about global warming and the need to "wean ourselves" from fossil fuel. The writer of the letter does not mention whether he owns three gas guzzling SUVs.

The writer also does not mention whether he provides the bookkeeping or maintains the transmission lines for the utility company, or if the utility company "absorbs" those costs.

It will be interesting to see how state governments work this issue. Fortunately "we" had the opportunity to see what happened to Germany.  Bottom line: if the Michigan folks agree with the individual who wrote the above letter, Michigan folks will help subsidize this individual's solar panel installation.

Based on the content of his letter, he should feel happy for doing his part to save the world, even if it costs him a little bit more in the long run.

******************************
This Is Not An Investment Site

Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Idle chatter, my world view, a myth: most of the market, on a daily basis, is run by computer algorithms. The algorithms start each day fresh. They don't have any emotions about what happened the day before. So, for the algorithms, every day is a new day.

Mr Algorithm saw what happened in Europe earlier today, and in China overnight, and Mr Algorithm reacted accordingly.

Once Mr Algorithm started reacting, other algorithms followed, and that moved Mr Algorithm into further free-fall. Once Mr Algorithm starts falling, there really is no guaranteed bottom or stop.

[On the other hand, when the market starts moving up quickly, it won't rise as fast or as high as it would fall. Why? Human greed. Once folks make a fair amount of money on the ride up, they well. Going down, fear is the human emotion, and fear will bring the market down a lot farther than greed will take the market up. Going down, there is only fear. Going up, greed is tempered by fear.]

Even those shorting the market are probably a bit worried. I doubt many folks short the entire market; more likely they short individual stocks, and most folks have a large number of equity investments if they are appropriately diversified. Not only are the few companies the shorts shorted falling deep and fast, but also even those companies that were fairly priced or under-priced are falling. Overall, I would think this is bad for everyone, except for guys like Warren Buffett who have a long, long horizon, own companies outright, and don't have many needs in life.

It's also times like this one hopes he/she has good fund managers managing one's investments. They need to get out fast, and then get back in just as quickly to take advantage of some great opportunities.

****************************
Politics
It's Valerie Jarrett vs Huma Abedin

... and Huma's going down

Random Update Of Zavanna's Nelson Well With Huge Uptick In Production Following Gas Lift -- August 24, 2015

HUGE THANKS FOR A READER OVERSEAS WHO BROUGHT THIS WELL TO MY ATTENTION (Sweden/Denmark) 

THERE WILL BY FACTUAL AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. If this information is important to you go to the source, either NDIC or Zavanna.

*********************************** 

Important: when you look at the production profile below, note that the well went from less than 2,500 bbls over 20 days to almost 11,000 bbls in only 17 days. Extrapolated to 30 days one gets a well that went from 3,750 bbls/month to almost 20,000 bbls/month. 

For those who follow the "decline curve" discussion, imagine what this does to the decline curve.

See also this post on the Zavanna Angus wells in Stockyard Creek / Long Creek, about ten miles east/southeast of Williston. 

The importance of this well: note the huge increase in production after the well came back on-line. Things to consider:
  • error in reporting (previously reported for another well by another operator) when production was commingled; in this case, the other two wells to be commingled have not been completed to the best of my knowledge (SI/NC) although the paperwork could be delayed from what is happening in the field
  • gas lift
  • halo effect of neighboring fracks

Note: the horizontal laterals may be mislabeled, but I don't think so. The GIS map server is a bit difficult to read with where the horizontals originate.
*************************************
The "Old" Nelson Well
The well summary:
  • 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 1H, Long Creek, 35 stages; 3.8 million lbs; t8/12; cum 407K 7/17; off-line many months; GL;
Scout ticket:
NDIC File No: 20085     API No: 33-105-02075-00-00     CTB No: 220085
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 8/9/2012     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT 2 3-153-99      Latitude: 48.110144     Longitude: -103.394234
Current Operator: ZAVANNA, LLC
Current Well Name: NELSON 3-10 1H
Total Depth: 20910     Field: LONG CREEK
Spud Date(s):  5/1/2012
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11560-20910     Comp: 8/9/2012     Status: AL     Date: 4/19/2013     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 220,328     Cum MCF Gas: 323825     Cum Water: 123086
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 8/30/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 825     IP MCF: 1339     IP Water: 547

Sundry forms (newest ones first)
  • Return to production, 6/14/15
  • Request to commingle
  • November 12, 2014: re-worked; 
  • November 7, 2014 (est): Zavanna will install a gas lift; a high pressure gas line has been run to the wellhead to inject gas down the casing annulus. Gas will go from casing to tubing through the gas lift mandrels/valves and will sue gas as the driver for fluid lift. A pumping unit will no longer be required while on gas lift. 
  • May 7, 2014: currently SI for offset Zavanna Angus drilling operations until further notice.
  • January 27, 2014: LACT unit installation.
  • May, 2013: pumping unit installed
Monthly production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20163117215171622160533331296503219
BAKKEN6-2016309420926996372296722371149
BAKKEN5-2016311583714370174033518734014711
BAKKEN4-201629166831588618526315863113915
BAKKEN3-20163119193182592498931174307102
BAKKEN2-20162913307127502200220544201120
BAKKEN1-2016291262312020378491887718080365
BAKKEN12-2015311175211580464121329312559272
BAKKEN11-201536176177064894242607
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-2015000046200
BAKKEN7-2015128281851360
BAKKEN6-201517111231064333131566714948466
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-20150000000
BAKKEN1-20150000000
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20140000000
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-20140000000
BAKKEN7-20140000000
BAKKEN6-20140000000
BAKKEN5-20140000000
BAKKEN4-201420234934471114303515241198
BAKKEN3-20143140604059218546653902301
BAKKEN2-201428475243042356740657111278
BAKKEN1-20143177418692345020715104759778
BAKKEN12-2013317589650229571293187073762
BAKKEN11-201330614359433319926928116011
BAKKEN10-2013317013757237521237637058209
BAKKEN9-2013307504741348081178616359704
BAKKEN8-2013308079808148021180748846476
BAKKEN7-2013319228879757521371068686380
BAKKEN6-2013308771902552891186325678849
BAKKEN5-201331806576325370993813938083
BAKKEN4-201317270125681997411823833
BAKKEN3-20132392969113447618056345214231
BAKKEN2-2013281508615002663326318173638538
BAKKEN1-20133119439200948013300581507814518
BAKKEN12-2012311430013548653319118786110795
BAKKEN11-201230134711346361981532153439531
BAKKEN10-201231160171613976621817740617309
BAKKEN9-20123022106221131081230385205827880
BAKKEN8-20121215835146422229517106016927