Friday, December 23, 2022

Electricity: $500/MWH -- Unprecedented Mix Energy Source -- Oil: 24% -- Demand Normal -- December 23, 2022

Updates

Decmber 24, 2022, link here:

Original Post

ISO NE: link here.


Through November, 2023, Ford Has Sold Only 13,258 F-150 Lightnings -- Ramping Up Too 150,000 Units By Next Fall -- December, 2022

Investors.

EVs not for me.

Why Rivian hit an all-time low today:

  • perfect storm:
    • expensive;
    • in tough times, investors want "return" (dividends)
    • recession won't treat EVs well
  • dire;

F-150 Lightning:

  • new price hike (reported earlier); link here;
  • the latest pricing increase – at least the third this year – comes as Ford attempts to expand production of the electric pickup to 150,000 units by next fall;
  • the company earlier this week said it remains on track to do so, as it recently added a third shift of workers to a Michigan plant producing the vehicle. 
  • Demand for this breakthrough vehicle is strong and continues to grow, we will continue to monitor pricing through the model year,” the spokeswoman said in the emailed statement. 
  • through the end of November, Ford had only sold 13,258 F-150 Lightnings.

Most EV companies had "down day" on the market today; on a day the market was otherwise up. 

Tesla, link here:

Tesla stock fell another 8.8% on Thursday, yesterday, December 22, 2022, bringing its year-to-date losses to 64%.


With this decline, more than $800 billion in market capitalization has been erased from the electric carmaker. The current 69.7% drawdown from its most recent high reached in late 2021 is the largest in Tesla's corporate history.


And this slide has been good news to short-sellers.


Data from S3 Partners published Thursday showed that through Wednesday's close, Tesla was the year's most profitable short — or stock traders were betting against — with mark-to-market profits totaling $15.03 billion so far this year. And these figures don't reflect Thursday's decline.

********************************
Nutcracker

Geoff Simon's Top Stories For The Week -- December 24, 2022

Quick connects

Last week's blizzard shut down one-third of Bakken total production.

Land Board completes acreage adjustment.

  • $130 million returned to private mineral owners
  • this was Part II of the 2-part adjustment
  • issue: ordinary high water mark west of the Fort Berthold reservation
  • Part I: east of US Highway 85
  • Part II: west of US Highway 85
  • surveys here;

Basin Electric to add 350 miles of high-voltage transmission in western ND over the next five years; archived.

  • one of the first phases: Neset-to-Northshore; New Town to Tioga
  • expected to be energized January, 2023 (next month)

North Dakota population closes in on 780,000

  • a new estimate released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that North Dakota’s population reached a new all-time high of 779,261 residents as of July 1, 2022.
  • the 2021 estimate indicated population had declined.

Week 51: December 18, 2022 -- December 24, 2022

Top US energy story of the year:

Top story:

  • Joe Biden is still president

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues
  • Zelensky makes first known trip outside of Ukraine since war began
    • visits President Biden in DC

Top international energy story:

  • Russia says it may cut production by 500,000 bopd

Top national non-energy story:

  • peaked already? quadruple threat: Covid-19; seasonal flu; pneumococcal pneumonia, and, RSV
  • Title 42 -- temporary injunction; "southern surge" -- public health issue -- Covid-19

Top national energy story

  • WTI flirts with $80 by end of week on news that Russia might cut production
Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • Polar vortex shuts down 1/3rd Bakken production

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

Playing Dice With Mother Nature -- December 23, 2022

Note: we're doing our part. Heat / furnace is turned off; it's been off all day except for a.m. when we got up to take off the chill, and then about fifteen minutes earlier this afternoon. But off now and expect to keep it off until tomorrow morning. Lots of blankets on the bed.

Breaking: 7:07 p.m. CT -- it's now being reported tens of thousands of folks are without electricity in Tarrant County (Ft Worth), Texas, our county. There are no storms here, so it must be ERCOT grid unable to keep up with demand.

Slightly earlier: link here.


***********************************
Original Post

ERCOT.

Holy mackerel -- this is going to be close. Earlier today it looked great but it looks like the wind if dying down. It's going to be really, really close.

Playing dice with Mother Nature. This is really, really crazy. 

Someone Else Watches ISO NE -- Twenty Percent Of Electricity In "Green" New England Is Being Produced By Oil -- December 23, 2022

Link here.

ISO NE:

Twenty percent of electricity in "green" New England is being produced by oil.

I wonder if the average New Englander knows that.



Europeans, Russia Working Around Sanctions -- December 23, 2022

Link here



The Road To California -- December 23, 2022

Link here.

Random Production Update For The Enerplus Seal Well In Antelope-Sanish -- December 23, 2022

The well:

  • 37728, loc/A, Enerplus, Seal 151-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 113K 3/22; cum 229K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-20223114694145288124476664542964
SANISH9-202230152041521885273813834865115
SANISH8-2022302244822395119875177647305414
SANISH7-20223123032230441573944217405233
SANISH6-2022302437524423189995433450400197
SANISH5-202222123911231433696254492278681
SANISH4-202210437343791619297678147168
SANISH3-202226273562736118611616185812289
SANISH2-2022284165541634355208073676323403
SANISH1-2022111916619165162403369831350603
SANISH12-20210030000
SANISH11-20211224373243222871736387330851347

Random Update Production For An Ovintiv Johnson Well In South Tobacco Garden -- December 23, 2022

The well:

  • 38596, conf-->loc/A, Ovintiv, Johnson 150-99-34-27-5HLW, South Tobacco Garden, t--; cum 208K 10/22; at wellhead, 208K x $70 = $14.6 million in eight months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223112536125241958345306437491427
BAKKEN9-20223015442154742240845037435101395
BAKKEN8-20223118583185032563450456473043021
BAKKEN7-20223122077220233008056862532033519
BAKKEN6-20223027816278913277351229483132782
BAKKEN5-20223121926221194273661376529488265
BAKKEN4-20223040456407294741168481610837165
BAKKEN3-20222848990481906616878286758802177

Random Production Update For One Of The Incredible CLR Charolais Wells -- December 23, 2022

This page won't be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere.

  • 37901, loc/A, CLR, Charolais South Federal 6-10H, Elm Tree, t--; cum 190K 9/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022312236722350114657062169909294
BAKKEN9-2022302309323102114726198661134466
BAKKEN8-2022312295922988113504534844691451
BAKKEN7-2022313523135248145466528464094984
BAKKEN6-2022303590735947136475894658254500
BAKKEN5-20223140994408811632861376596881688
BAKKEN4-2022273145331389146534531544376939
BAKKEN3-2022440140122018440844

CLR Bang Wells In Cedar Coulee Have Been Completed -- A CLR Whitman Well With An 80x Jump In Production -- December 23, 2022

There is so much work left to be done in the Bakken. It's all about TOC. 

The Bang wells are tracked elsewhere.

Initial production of Bang #12.

  • 38609, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Bang 12-4H, Cedar Coulee, t--; cum 90K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022315023250545200965301152158637
BAKKEN9-20222539286388351738843366409182448
BAKKEN8-2022156756710284580458

Parent well:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 271K 10/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022313467934024472584307542642214
BAKKEN9-20225172216755530218321792
BAKKEN8-2022151790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400
BAKKEN4-202130477576788975050
BAKKEN3-202131515312939255060

A Bang-TF parent well:

  • 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, t5/10; cum 250K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-2022141790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-202225258430161332273124070
BAKKEN4-2022293071318314682940251277
BAKKEN3-202231366438841877353131170

Just to the east, the incredible CLR Whitman wells. An early parent Whitman well:

  • 17061, 664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 585K 10/22; recent production; 31K over 18 days extrapolates to 52K over one month; 52K / 656 = 80x jump in production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223114261143141238018998187572
BAKKEN9-2022303619436217258343996639770196
BAKKEN8-20221831218310871770825267236651602
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20211423655373872750
BAKKEN8-2021316565505212418220
BAKKEN7-2021265847562110346960
BAKKEN6-2021307135795712478430

Whiting's Lacey Well In The Sanish -- December 23, 2022

200K in ten months = 200K x $60 at the well head = $12 million. 

The well:

  • 37553, conf, Whiting, Lacey 13-10-2H, Sanish, t--; cum 203K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20221250005050454071696985184
BAKKEN9-202230124441256268941959519250345
BAKKEN8-2022231042810514663517727110696658
BAKKEN7-2022311739517466112403047029936534
BAKKEN6-2022301724617323137972309522120975
BAKKEN5-2022312334723248141002544924692757
BAKKEN4-20222318125183181228418798160422756
BAKKEN3-20223127096271201611423606225421064
BAKKEN2-20222826801266291829822016183463670
BAKKEN1-20223131241312692596324790219862804
BAKKEN12-202130135871307331800573957390

The parent well, recent production:

  • 18953, 2,534, Whiting, Lacey 12-10H, Sanish, t10/10; cum 338K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202231189618778741317122332
BAKKEN9-202230176017938911258117721
BAKKEN8-20223120802059785831480289
BAKKEN7-20223116431611101578971413
BAKKEN6-20224106103351511386
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-2021001080000
BAKKEN4-2021298838012149319310
BAKKEN3-20213111021168214125111890
BAKKEN2-2021281116104123810379810
BAKKEN1-20213113001445231133212700
BAKKEN12-2020301135105924013451287