New England ISO -- August 2, 2024

Locator: 48304ISONE.

I haven't taken a look at NE-ISO in a long, long time.

Yesterday, this headline:

The context:

Today:  wind/solar unhelpful.

My Favorite Chart -- US Money Market Fund Assets

Locator: 48303MMF.

My favorite chart. Yet to be posted, so this will have to suffice for now. Link here. 

• Prior: $6.14 trillion
• increase / decrease:$10.65 billion
• Most recent: $6.13 trillion

***********************
Mad Money S18 E801

August 1, 2024 (note: this is yesterday's program): all US markets down significantly -- NASDAQ and Russell 2000 each down 3%.  Again, yesterday.

Jim Cramer may be eating crow Friday morning, August 1, 2024 -- he was anticipating a great jobs report earlier this morning. Didn't happen. A very bad jobs report and the market sold off. 

Jim Cramer, last night, still supporting the Fed.

It will be interesting to see today's episode which I will have to catch in re-runs. I was out swimming when Jim Cramer was live today, Friday, August 2, 2024, on one of the worst days ever for the market -- at least in the past few months.

Will he mention Intel? Yes, he certainly did. Reminded us that's he's been negative on Intel ever since Intel cut its dividend earlier this year.

Five New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 2, 2024

Locator: 48302B. 

WTI: $73.52. Recession is back on the table.

Active rigs: 42 -- recent high.

Five new permits, #40994 - #40998, inclusive:

• Operators: Koda Resources (2); Murex Petroleum (2), Phoenix Operating
• Fields: Fertile Valley (Divide County); West Ambrose (Divide); Burg (Divide)
• Comments:
• KODA Resources has permits for two Stout wells, SESW 14-160-102, 
• both to be sited 475 FSL wiht one 1725 FWL; the other, 1760 FWL;
• Murex Petroleum has permits for an MK-Mila Kath wells and a MK-Grace Sophia well, lot 1, section 6-162-100; 
• both to be sited 400 FNL; with one 840 FEL and the other 810 FEL;
• Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Jacobson well, NENW 19-160-98,
• to be sited 310 FNL and 2332 FWL

Two permits renewed:

• Hunt Oil: two Smoky Butte permits, Williams County

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37106, 180, BR, Carlsbad 3A UTFH, Twin Valley, t--; cum --;
• 39783, 1,484, CLR, Thorvald 7-6H1, Rattlesnake, t--; cum --;
• 40201, 4,262, MRO, Nicole 31-6H, Killdeer, t4/24; cum 81K 6/24;

The MRO DUC:

• 40201, 4,262, MRO, Nicole 31-6H, Killdeer, t4/24; cum 81K 6/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	30015	29962	42282	14059	13989	26
BAKKEN	5-2024	28	27552	27506	38003	12621	12581	7
BAKKEN	4-2024	11	23524	23372	42208	9306	9229	53

Wells of interest:

• 17953, IA/288, XTO, Beckert 24-7H, t4/10; cum 498K 3/24;
• 25721, IA/288, XTO, Strommen 44X-7D, t11/13; cum 342K 3/24;
• 25720, IA/1,789, XTO, Strommen 44X-7H, t11/13; cum 242K 3/24;

The August, 2024, NDIC Hearing Dockets Have Posted -- August 2, 2024

Locator: 48301DOCKETS.

Link here.

August hearing dockets.  

Link here.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.

Thursday, August 29, 2024
13 pages
link here

The cases:

• 31338, Hunt Oil, create two 1920-acre units, one well on each unit; Burke County;
• 31139, Hunt Oil, Clear Water-Bakken, create a 1920-acre unit, four wells, Burke County;
• 31140, Hunt, Alexandria-Bakken, i) establish three overlapping 1920-acre units, four wells on each; ii) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; two wells; Divide County;
• 31141, Hunt, Smoky Butte-Bakken, establish four 1920-acre units, four wells on each; Divide County;
• 31142, Hunt, Sioux Trail-Bakken establish three overlapping 1920-acre units; four wells on each; Divide County;
• 31143, Hunt, Dimond-Bakken and/or Vanville-Bakken; i) establish a 1920-acre unit; four wells; ii) establish two overlapping 1920-acre units, four wells on each, Burke County
• 31144, CLR, exception to rules
• 31145, CLR, exception to rules
• 31146, CLR, exception to rules
• 31147, CLR, exception to rules
• 31148, CLR, exception to rules
• 31149, CLR, West Capa-Bakken and/or Grinnell-Bakken, to establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; four wells on each; Williams and McKenzie counties
• 31150, CLR, pad management
• 31151, NDIC, temporary spacing for an oil and/or gas pool discovered by the West Dry Creek 1H well, file #39417; Renville County; Sparrow Oil & Gas;
  
• 31152, NDIC, SWD
• 31153, NDIC, SWD
• 31154, treating plant in McKenzie County
• 31156, NDIC, SWD
• 31157, NDIC, SWD
• 31158, NDIC, SWD,
• 31159, NDIC, treating plant
• 31160, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31161, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31162, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31163, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31164, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31165, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31166, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31167, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31168, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31169, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31170, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31171, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31172, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31173, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31174, Hunt Oil, pooling
• 31175, Hunt Oil, commingling 
• 31176, Liberty Resources, commingling
• 31177, XTO, commingling
• 31178, CLR, pooling
• 31179, CLR, pooling
• 31180, Murfin, SWD
• 31181, Grayson Mill, SWD
• 31182, Southern Cross Ranch, conversion to a freshwater well 

Wednesday, August 28, 2024
19 pages
link here

The cases:

• 31077, Enerplus (now part of Chord), Little Knife-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit, four sections standup, one well on that unit, Dunn County;
• 31078, Enerplus, amend, Mandaree-Baken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit, four section standup; one well, Dunn County;
•  31079, Hess, amend, Manitou-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; six sections, four wells, Mountrail County;
• 31080, Hess, amend, the Ellsworth-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit, three sections laydown, four wells; ii) establish overlapping laydown 3840-acre, one horizontal well, McKenzie County
• 31081, Hess, Ellsworth, Bear Butte, Bully and/or Buffalo Wallow-Bakken, i) to establish an overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit, four wells; ii) establish an overlapping laydown 3840-acre unit, one well; McKenzie County
• 31082, Hess, Camel Butte and/or Blue Buttes-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, McKenzie County;
• 31083, Hess, revoke, legalese
• 31084, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit, one well; ii) establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit; two wells; iii) establish an overlapping standup 5120-acre unit, 8 sections; Dunn County
• 31085, MRO, Bailey and/or Lake Ilo-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Dunn County
• 31086, MRL, Bailey-Bakken, i) to establish an overlapping 2560-acre. unit, one well; Dunn County;
• 31087, Murex, revoke, legalese,
• 31088, Phoenix Operating, Green Lake / Blue Ridge-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; one well; Williams County
• 31089, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone-Bakken, amend, establish a 2560-acre unit; five wells; Williams County
• 31090, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; five wells; Williams County
• 31091, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone-Bakken, establish a 5120-acre unit, one well; Williams County
• 31092, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone-Bakken, establish a 5120-acre unit; one well; Williams County
• 31093, Phoenix Operating, revoke, legalese
• 31094, Oasis, pooling
• 31095, Oasis, pooling
• 31096, Oasis, commingling
• 31097, Oasis, commingling
• 31098, Enerplus, pooling
• 31099, Enerplus, pooling
• 31100, Enerplus, commingling
• 31101, Enerplus, commingling
• 31102, Enerplus, commingling
• 31103, Enerplus, commingling
• 31104, Enerplus, commingling
• 31105, Enerplus, commingling
• 31106, Enerplus, commingling
• 31107, Enerplus, commingling
• 31108, Enerplus, commingling
• 31109, Enerplus, commingling
• 31110, Grayson Mill, commingling
• 31111, Hess, pooling 
• 31112, Hess, pooling 
• 31113, Hess, pooling 
• 31114, Hess, pooling 
• 31115, Hess, pooling 
• 31116, Hess, pooling 
• 31117, Hess, commingling
• 31118, Hess, commingling
• 31119, Hess, commingling
• 31120, Hess, commingling
• 31121, Hess, commingling
• 31122, Hess, SWD
• 31123, MRO, pooling 
• 31124, MRO, pooling 
• 31125, MRO, pooling 
• 31126, MRO, pooling 
• 31127, MRO, pooling 
• 31128, MRO, pooling 
• 31129, MRO, pooling 
• 31130, MRO, commingling
• 31131, MRO, commingling
• 31132, Phoenix Operating, pooling 
• 31133, Phoenix Operating, pooling 
• 31134, Phoenix Operating, pooling 
• 31135, Phoenix Operating, commingling
• 31136, Phoenix Operating, commingling
• 31137, Phoenix Operating, SWD

Intel Chips: From The #1 PC Magazine In The US -- Published Today -- PC Magazine: Intel Has A Big Chip Problem -- August 2, 2024

Locator: 48300INTEL.

Link here.

From wiki:

This was from eleven months ago. Link here. Where were the analysts? Isn't there something about "due diligence"? I haven't heard that term since the dot-com bust.

From The Verge: 

You Can't Hurry Love -- August 2, 2024

Locator: 48299LEGO.

Link here.

Link here. Not a good omen.

*******************
Newest Member of The Family 

1969 Camaro Z28.

The Fed -- Re-Posting -- August 2, 2024

Re-posting from June 28, 2024 -- just about a month ago.

Locator: 48064ARCHIVES.

Tesla deliveries: to be reported the second day of the next quarter? Next Tuesday, July 2, 2024?

*****************************
The Fed

The Fed, the "rate," the market, the talk: after lots and lots of discussion about the Fed and when will the Fed cut rates, and then today's numbers (the PCE) and then comments from various Fed committee members. the fog is starting to clear:

• "they" may be talking about 2% inflation, but no one has really defined what components / what metric the Fed is really, really following (they have a "preferred" metric but that's just one of many); and,
• no one has really, really defined how long the metric must remain at 2% for the Fed to cut.

If one has not yet noticed, the Fed's promise to cut the "Fed rate" is like watching Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown to kick, and furthering the analogy, if Lucy ever lets Charlie Brown kick the ball, he will find Lucy has moved the goal posts.

This is what's going on and how things will play out:

• the Fed is not shooting for 2%; they're shooting for 1.5% inflation rate for several months and for indications that inflation has truly been tamed before they will make meaningful cuts;
• to get to 1.5% inflation, we will have to see significant deflation (or is it called disinflation now?);
• bottom line: the Fed is now targeting 1.5% not 2%;
• the only way to get to 1.5% is to get through 2% and to see lots of pain;
• the Fed hawks will want to see headlines of "pain" on the business pages of general interest magazines and other media outlets, not simply in the headlines of business magazines and other business media outlets.
• the only "thing" now holding back that 2% target is rent, and maybe house prices, but in the big scheme of things, the only "thing" between now and 2% inflation is rent;
• and the housing situation is so tight in the US, there is no chance landlords are going to lower rents, which is required if we're going to get to 2%.

So, again:

• the Fed is targeting 1.5% inflation using undefined metrics and undefined time periods;
• to get to 1.5%, lots of pain will need to be endured by the broad "middle class" -- however one wants to define that demographic
  
• the lower class is relatively unaffected by inflation (and if they are, no one is listening to them anyway); and the wealthy are doing, doing very, very well with 5% in  money market funds to hedge against their investments in Nvidia.

And, oh by the way, while contemplating the above, no one has ever explained to me why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and not 1% or 1.5% or 3% or 3.5%. So, even targeting 1.5% is incorrect. In fact, the Fed is looking for something else, but the press and Steve Liesman need a number, and 2% is the Fed's number, though in fact, it should be clear by now, it's really 1.5% if one needs a number. 

In fact, the Fed is looking for something else.

The Fed is looking for this: an undefined (for lack of a better word) "pain index."

The Fed's “pain index":

• increasing unemployment rate, greater than 5% in U-3 unemployed;
• the lack of "we are hiring signs" in the store windows on Main Street;
• headlines in USA Today screaming the US economy is deteriorating;
• a falling GDP but without going negative.

The Fed will get no credit if it lowers rates  in a Goldilocks environment, but if the economy starts to deteriorate and the pain index is obvious to all, then JPow can swoop in, cut rates, and look like the hero. And if timing works out, the Fed’s dithering could prove to be incredibly fortuitous for the next president, whomever (whoever?) that might be.

*****************************
The Market Today

The market was doing great the first half of the day, rising to new all-time highs in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ but then by the end of the day everything deteriorated. What happened.

This is so obvious.

Last day of the month; last day of the quarter; last day of the first half -- after an incredible one month, one quarter, one half -- the money managers sold, locked in their profits, will take next week off, and then get back in the market in late July before the summer doldrums really set in.

By the way, how bad was it? 

Before the 10 - 1 split, NVDA was trading for $1,000 / share, or split-adjusted, $100 / share.

Now it's in the $125 range. Today. NVDA lost ... drum roll .... off 30 cents or thereabouts, and then NVDA rose after hours.

Although AAPL pulled back significantly today, AAPL was still up 1.42% for the week, and , like NVDA, rose after hours.

****************

Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 4 — August 4, 2024

Locator: 48298POLLS.

Polls: 

Best summary for first week in August, 2024: link here. Incredibly bad news for Trump. A reminder: Kamala has two more "scheduled" bouncers: a) when she names her VP; and, when she emerges from the Democratic National Convention.

Trump on release of American prisoners held in Russia: this one is Trump's take on the release of American political prisoners: link here. If his MAGA followers agree with Trump on this one, it speaks volumes about his MAGA followers. I won't watch "Morning Joe" but in this case ...

I'm with Kamala Harris on this one. Link here. Trump comes off as "a very divisive, a very little man."

I learned in the USAF that regularly scheduled committee meetings were held to avoid having to discuss the real issues.

Likewise, political journalism is an opportunity for folks like Trump to talk about small issues that are unimportant -- like ethnic background -- to avoid the bigger issues -- like where does he stand with regard to Israel? I honestly don't know. Where does he stand with regard to the Ukraine? I honestly don't know. But I do know, a) he is an isolationist; and, b) he hates sending money overseas to our allies.

President Biden is working at getting American/political prisoners out of Russia (and he succeeded magnificently); Trump is debating Kamala Harris' ethnic background. 

It's interesting: my wife is Japanese-Mexican and I've never thought of her as anything other than American. But when I do think about her ethnicity, I'm thrilled for her and her family. And for the grandchildren, who love to think of themselves as Japanese, Mexican, European. And Texan.

Jobs: link here.

Intel (INTC): CNBC "Half-Time Report" -- it just keeps getting worse.  New ticker symbol for Intel: TTNC?

One analyst bought INTC a few weeks ago at $33 and sold it all today at $22 or thereabouts -- "a disaster." -- BIll Baruch, Blue Line Capital Founder. In line with most other panelists. Intel first reached $22 in 1997 -- 27 years ago. 

Bill Gelsinger's choice to pivot to his own foundries; now seen as the wrong choice, but he did not have (m)any choices -- panelist.

WTI Plunges -- Drops Below -- $74 -- August 2, 2024

Locator: 48297B.

CNBC "Half-Time Report": this is "NOT" Cisco (CSCO) during the dot-com bubble. Amazing how a meme gets started. LOL. 

For the archives: this was the day after JPow and the Fed did not cut rates when the data / common sense suggested cutting should have begun by now.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.73.

Sunday, August 4, 2024: 71 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 397 for the year
40451, conf, Neptune Operating, Frederick LE 3-10 11H,
39512, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley # 158-93-29-32-2MBH,

Saturday, August 3, 2024: 69 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 395 for the year
40450, conf, Neptune Operating Frederick 3-10 6H,
40336, conf, CLR, Dahle 4-35H,
39513, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley E 158-93-29-32-3MBH,

Friday, August 2, 2024: 66 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 392 for the year
40449, conf, Empire North Dakota, Eagle 29 1
40410, conf, CLR, Dahle 5-35HSL,
40385, conf, Neptune Operating, Frederick 3-10 5H,
40305, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-2H,
39601, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson B-155-95-0807H-7,

RBN Energy: small modular reactors could be part of nuclear revival, but hurdles remain.

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about the best way to meet the expected increases in U.S. power demand, driven in part by manufacturing growth and the rapid development of large-scale data centers. That has spurred a renewed interest among regulators, industry leaders and the general public in nuclear power. But while traditional reactors are known for their cost overruns and construction delays as much as the massive amounts of carbon-free power they produce, some see a better way forward in the form of small modular reactors (SMRs). Advocates with “uranium fever” say they can be built without many of the problems that accompany their larger cousins and offer a number of potential advantages, including siting flexibility, price and efficiency. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the state of nuclear power in the U.S., examine the potential for SMRs, and discuss the hurdles they face to obtaining the necessary permits and ultimately beginning operation.

Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 3 — August 2, 2024

Locator: 48296ARCHIVES.

Household liquid assets: unprecedented $18 trillion. $5 trilliion added in 2020 alone. Link here.

 

US household net worth: reached a record to kick off 2024. 

Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 2 — August 2, 2024

Locator: 48295ARCHIVES.

INTC: can’t get enough of this story. Cramer was exactly right. At the open: drops almost 30%. Prior to market open, the words being considered: “a going concern.” This is after taking $8.5 billion from the government. Apparently will build / recently buildt a new foundry in Ireland. Needs to be fact-checked. Will $20-share price hold? Link here. It's low for the day was $20.42. Barely held above $20. Yup,

AAPL: is up on a day that the market continues to plunge. AAPL up nicely — CNBC.

Chevron: will leave California, head to Texas. 

Will re-locate to Houston, TX. Story everywhere, including WSJ. Alert pushed to mi iPhone. Has been in California 140 years. CEO says they won’t be the last to leave California. Will take five years to complete move. Some operations to remain in California. Need to listen to Cramer on to his one. The state of Texas tracks relocations here.

SRE: awesome! At the open.

Jobs and the Fed: JPow absolutely did the right thing. We talked about this, maybe, two months ago. Deus ex machina. I’ll see I can find the link.

Personal investing: as folks know, I’m no longer investing for myself. 

Everything is being transferred to the grandchildren. Having said that, Sophia sees a huge buying opportunity today and she’s going to take it. AAPL? SRE? Something else? Will first look at dividend announcements. That data provides much information about a company’s health. [Later: Sophia picked up shares in AAPL, SRE, HES, and CVX. Two of four were based on specific Cramer comments. The two others have been long-term favorites of mine.

Market open: recession-safe stocks are being scooped up.

See the blog’s disclaimers.