Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Three Western North Dakota Newspapers Call It A Day -- Bismarck Tribune -- November 27, 2019


December 4, 2019: two of the three have been purchased; "business as usual."

Original Post

 Link here.
Three official county newspapers serving thousands of readers in western North Dakota will publish their last editions on Friday.
The Adams County Record, in Hettinger; the Dunn County Herald, in Killdeer; and The Herald, in New England, are closing.
Salem, Ore.-based owner Country Media Inc. informed the association this week of the pending closures.
Very, very sad.

From a reader:
I grew up with the Slope Messenger, later consolidated with the Hettinger County Herald, I remember Earl Rundel being the publisher. He was a local rancher and legislator. He was a pretty colorful figure. I think the saying "they don't make 'em like that anymore applies." 
I guess it's a sign of getting old but I miss those days. Those old timers were also the ones that came over to see me when I came home from Viet Nam and recruited me into the Republican Party where I served on the [local] district executive commission until I moved to Fargo in the early 90's. I also remember Senator Mark Andrews, at a meeting in Medora, giving me a flag that had flown over the US capitol because "you served your country in war."  No press releases or fanfare, that's just how they did it.  
Yes, the older I get, it seems, the better my memories of the old days. Great note. Thank you. The more I read about the Vietnma War, the more it appears the country really let our enlisted US Army troops down, and the USAF POWs. Reminds me a lot of the British and French generals during WWI -- again, based on my readings. No personal experience.

Sophia With Her Horse And Closest Friend

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- Feedback From Readers -- November 27, 2019

I've recently posted several notes about CLR's incredible Carus wells.

A reader directed me to Alwin C. Carus.

One might begin here and then from there do one's own google research.
The Alwin C. Carus Research Grant honors Carus and his interests in all aspects of history, archeology, and astronomy. Carus was born Nov. 20, 1901, in LaSalle to Paul and Mary (Hegeler) Carus.
He majored in chemistry and physics at the University of Chicago. He worked in the research laboratory at Carus Chemical Co. until he retired.
He also owned and helped operate farms and ranches near Killdeer in the Badlands of North Dakota, in western Minnesota, in eastern Montana on the Tongue River, and 200 miles northwest of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, in the Peace River Valley.
He traveled to Iraq and Turkey in the 1950s to visit ancient archeological sites with a graduate of the Oriental Institute, University of Chicago. He joined several expeditions with renowned astronomers to journey to the best places to view solar eclipses. In all, he witnessed over 12 total eclipses of the sun.
What a great country. It just never quits. 

Nothing About The Bakken -- Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 27, 2019

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

We had the day off. No driving. No appointments. No nothing.

Our day off:
  • Ft Worth Botanical Gardens
  • Kimball Art Museum, Ft Worth
  • Lunch at the art museum (best lunch in town)
  • Barnes and Noble, Southlake, TX
  • lots of Christmas gifts -- yes, Christmas gifts -- bought for the extended family
  • pending: movie night -- at one of those dine-in movie theaters -- a mixed drink and a dinner
  • what a great country
Movies (later): the movie -- Knives Out -- was incredible. WSJ reviewer loved it; most comments, "Best movie I've seen in some time." Slow movie in a way; won't be everyone's cup of tea; I went to see it for the ensemble cast; not disappointed. Ana de Armas absolutely blows it out of the water!

All politics:
I've got the headphones on, playing music as loud as I can to avoid watching the ABC Nightly News that my wife is watching. I take the headphones off to watch a Tom Steyer commercial -- he's currently polling zero percent in the Quinnipiac poll -- zero percent .... he is now calling Mr Trump a failure. My wife detests Mr Trump, but we both agree -- she begrudgingly -- that we would like to have failed like Trump, let me count the ways:
  • trophy wife
  • Mar-a-Lago
  • billions in the bank
  • Trump Tower
Oh, one more thing: president of the United States.


This is the man.
Sixteen Reasons, Connie Stevens

Item on the evening news: Apple's AirPods -- demand is so great that ordering them now from Apple and they won't be delivered until December 30, 2019, or later. Keeping America great.

Market: did the three major indices all hit new highs today? I don't know but I think so.

Six New Permits -- November 27, 2019

Gasoline demand, link here:

Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

Active Rigs5762543764

Six new permits, #37223 - #37228, inclusive:
  • Operators: XTO (4); Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Alkali Creek (Mountrail); Bully (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • XTO has permits for four Kulczyk permits in section 17-154-94 in Alkali Creek;
    • Whiting has permits for two Sorenson permits in section 6-148-99 in Bully oil field;

Another Incredible CLR Carus Well -- November 27, 2019

This page won't be updated. I believe this completes the CLR Carus wells for now.

The CLR Carus wells are tracked here.

The well:
  • 35578, 2,652, Carus 11-28H, 42 stages; 12.7 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 179K 10/19; production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The dreaded Bakken decline rate? Not yet. LOL.

CLR Reports Another Monster Carus Wells In Cedar Coulee -- November 27, 2019

This page won't be updated.

The CLR Carus wells are tracked here.

CLR reports another monster Carus well today. Note: the well was tested 8/19; and has produced nearly 150,000 bbls by end of 9/19; note the large amount of proppant (very inexpensive these days) and the moderate number of stages):
  • 35547, 2,041, CLR, Carus 7-28H, 42 stages; 12.7 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 138K 9/19; production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Weekly Petroleum Report -- November 27, 2019

Link here. US weekly petroleum report.
  • US crude oil inventory increased by a mere 1.6 million bbls from the previous week
  • US crude oil in storage now at 452.0 million bbls, about 3% above the 5-yeave average for this time of year; one year ago: 450.5 million bbls; not much re-balancing in this past year
  • refiners are operating at 89.3% capacity, somewhat greater than the last few weeks, and trending up
  • imports are not almost 22% less than the same four-week period last year
  • there is no shortage of propane; it's not just where it needs to be; propane is about 6% above the five-year average
All things being equal, WTI should be "up." Let's see: WTI is down 49 cents, breaking below $48.

Re-balancing (note: to keep graphic manageable in size, much of the data is "hidden"):
Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 43
September 18, 2019
Week 44
September 26, 2019
Week 45
October 2, 2019
Week 46
October 9, 2019
Week 47
October 17, 2019
Week 48
October 23, 2019
Week 49
October 30, 2019
Week 50
November 6, 2019
Week 51
November 14, 2019
Week 52
November 20, 2019
Week 53
November 27, 2019

US Energy Independence -- November 27, 2019

This will be the top story of the week. Not so much the story itself, but "everybody" is now reporting this story.
From a reader (see first comment):

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 27, 2019

Behind the scenes consolidation:
  • Target / Toys R Us: link here.
  • on-line photos: Snapfish, Shutterfly acquired by private equity firm; webpages look identical to Walgreens photo; ordering from Snapfish, pick up at Walgreens, others
Bumblebee: tuna wholesaler files for bankruptcy; to be bought on the cheap by Chinese company;

More on Lamar: link here.

Recession is just around the corner: article is ridiculous; comments are great. KAG.

"Hell, yes, we'll take away your private insurance"

This is fascinating. On November 5, 2019, just a couple of weeks ago, I posted on the blog:

  • Beto dropped out after, "Hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns." 
  • Did Pocahontas make the same mistake with, "Hell, yes, we're going to take away your private health insurance"?
  • politics tracked here, FWIW, but it sure is fascinating
Now today:

US Youth Soccer

Link here.

Our middle granddaughter was invited to be a guest player on one of the FC Dallas (Texas) teams.

This is a national team, national tournment.

For the 14U girls, there are 28 national teams invited to this two-part tournament.

The first half of the tournament is a four-day tournament in Miami, FL, cming to an end today.

Of the 28 teams only two teams went into the last day undefeated. The team on which our granddaughter is playing was one of those two teams.

The other undefeated team lost its final game today and will finish the tournament with three wins, one loss.

The score just came in: our granddaughter's team lost. There will no undefeated teams, and our granddaughter's team will finish the first half of the tournament with three wins, one loss, and #1 in their division.

The second half of the tournament will be held next March, 2020, in Las Vegas.

Following this tournament, our granddaughter will fly out to Los Angeles to to participate in another tournament. In that tournament, she is playing "up." She is an eighth grader playing on a ninth-grade team in a national tournament for ninth graders.

The scouts are out. Unfortunately I don't know how to load the instagram video but some scout or coach loaded a video of our granddaughter with a corner kick. It's quite impressive. But, of course, that's a grandfather's perspective. LOL.

On a side note, our granddaughter was one of the very few non-forwards to have scored a goal in the tournament. It just happened that she scored on a penalty kick in a game in which her team won, 1 - 0. In soccer, the coach decides which player will kick the penalty kick. It is not like a foul in basketball.

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List; COP Sells Niobrara Assets -- November 27, 2019

First things first: Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all hit intra-day all-time highs. 3Q19 GDP is revised upward, now over 2% at 2.1%.

Rig counts don't matter: rigs continue to drop; production continues to increase.

MDU feeling flush: will increase 5-year CAPEX by 8.6%. This speaks volumes about the future of the Bakken.

Kashagan cuts production: maintenance or something of that sort

COP sells Niobrara, link here:
One of the biggest international oil giants is selling its oil and gas lease rights at the northeast edge of the metro area in a deal poised to make Denver-based Crestone Peak Resources much bigger. Houston-based ConocoPhillips Co. said Tuesday that it has negotiated the deal. Niobrara refers to geological formation that’s most sought after for unconventional oil and gas development in northeast Colorado.
Financial terms not disclosed.
Crestone Peak revealed Monday that it had struck a deal to buy 97,000 acres of oil and gas lease rights in Adams and Arapahoe counties and in the city of Aurora, nearly tripling the company’s size in the southern Denver-Julesburg Basin.
The deal includes the Lowry Range, a former military bombing range east of Aurora, and some ConocoPhillips acreage in northern Douglas and Elbert counties, too.
The Niobrara is tracked at the sidebar at the right.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5662543764

Four wells coming off confidential list today -- Wednesday, November 27, 2019: 93 for the month; 194 for the quarter:
  • 36137, SI/NC, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36H, Sorkness, no production data,
  • 35639, SI/NC, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HX, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 35547, 2,041, CLR, Carus 7-28H, Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 138K 9/19;
  • 30107, 820, Oasis, Jensen 55-1 43-7 5B, Missouri Ridge, t6/19; bcum 84K 9/19; 
RBN Energy: Noble Midstream's crude gathering systems in the D-J Basin, part 2.
The doubling of crude oil production in the Denver-Julesburg Basin over the past 18 months spurred a rapid build-out of crude gathering systems and other infrastructure. Unlike the sprawling Permian Basin, with its numerous centers of drilling and production activity in parts of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the vast majority of the D-J Basin’s incremental crude output has come from Weld County, CO. Understandably, Weld County also is where most of the D-J’s crude gathering systems are located, and where most of the gathering system expansions are being planned and built. Today, we continue a series on existing and planned pipeline networks to move D-J crude from the lease to regional hubs and takeaway pipes.
Previously, we explained that the D-J Basin in northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming offers an unusually intense concentration of hydrocarbons within four geologic layers, or “benches,” only a few thousand feet below the surface, as well as low per-well drilling costs and direct pipeline access to the crude hub in Cushing, OK. We also pointed out that the rate of crude oil production growth in the D-J Basin in 2018-19 has been second only to the Permian, and that D-J production now averages about 640 Mb/d. To kick off our review of crude gathering systems in the D-J, we started with the play’s largest network: the Black Diamond system in Weld County, which is jointly owned by Noble Midstream Partners and Greenfield Midstream.
Noble Midstream is a master limited partnership (MLP) formed in 2016 by Noble Energy, one of the largest producers in the D-J; Greenfield Midstream, in turn, is a privately held midstream developer and owner. Black Diamond currently has about 240 miles of gathering pipe and 390 Mbbl of crude storage capacity; another 30 Mbbl of storage will come online in the first quarter of 2020. Nearly a dozen customers have dedicated a total of about 286,000 acres to the system, whose crude oil flows now average about 130 Mb/d. Finally, we noted that Black Diamond recently secured an option to purchase up to a 20% ownership interest in the Saddlehorn Pipeline, one of the big crude conduits linking the D-J and Cushing; that option expires in April 2020.