Showing posts with label TrainWreck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TrainWreck. Show all posts

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Going To Ground -- March 14, 2019

From a reader today:



The link.
A storm system forecasters called historic blasted through New Mexico this week, spawning tornadoes, forcing a freight train to plunge from the bridge it was crossing, turning semis onto their sides, causing other vehicle crashes and knocking out power for hours in Las Vegas, NM.
At least it was a dry wind.

Monday, January 29, 2018

Reminder: Bakken Prices Here

Link here.

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Texas Bullet Train

This is pretty cool. I think it's pretty well agreed that a bullet train from "Los Angeles" (wherever that is) to San Francisco makes absolutely no sense and will be incredibly costly for the legal, tax-paying residents of the Golden State.

On the other hand, a bullet train from Dallas (mostly likely DFW) to Houston (most likely George Bush Intercontinental Airport) makes eminent sense.

On top of everything else, the California bullet train's obstacles include:
  • dozens of cities that will stand in the way of the bullet train
  • huge costs associated with drilling through the mountains just north/northwest of Los Angeles
  • earthquake- prone geology
  • huge budgetary problems
On the other hand, for Texas:
  • very few cities stand between DFW and Bush to slow the train down
  • absolutely flat, easily-developed geology; no mountains; no large rivers
  • no earthquakes
  • no budgetary problems (yet)
So, where does Texas stand?

The "Feds" have picked the preferred route for the Dallas-to-Houston train. That was back in December, 2017. On the radio this morning, it was announced that the public-comment meetings are starting to be scheduled; I believe there are something like four public-comment meetings are required. (The linked site says there will be ten public hearings.)


Compared to the California bullet train, the DFW - GBIA should be a slam dunk.

The California bullet train is decades from reality and right now is estimated to cost upwards of $70 billion.

The Texas bullet train could be operational by 2023 and is estimated to cost less than $12 billion. the trip from LA to SF is estimated to take a little less than three (3) hours (my hunch is that this is grossly exaggerated; safety issues will require that the train slow down in many towns and cities along the route).

On the other hand, the time from DFW to GBIA is estimated to take 90 minutes.

On top of all this, compared to driving to LAX it is incredibly easy to drive to DFW and getting easier all the time. Texas is staying ahead of traffic congestion on the north side of DFW. The commute to LAX will easily add another hour to one's commute to SF, whereas the commute to DFW would be measured in minutes from the north side of DFW.

In a litigious state like California, it's hard to believe the California bullet train won't be renamed the California Keystone XL. With Trump's emphasis on infrastructure, the timing of the Texas bullet train seems more fortuitous.

I won't be alive to see the California bullet train (nor will Governor Moonbeam) but it is very likely that I will be taking the Texas bullet train before I am too old to do my own investing.

Saturday, January 6, 2018

NDSU Wins Championship Game; Unprecedented 6 Championships In Last 7 Years -- January 6, 2018

Link here.


NDSU wins, 17 - 13. A real nail-biter. Great game. NDSU sets record -- wins 6 championships in 7 years; never done before. Two disappointments with the coverage: the half-time report was nothing more than an ESPN commercial -- all about the Georgia-Alabama championship game Monday; and ESPN cut quickly to a college basketball game after the end of the NDSU-JMU game; home town folks won't have televised coverage of NDSU getting the trophy.

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Flashback: ObamaCare

"Open Season" -- a concept introduced by President Obama.

This is from a post several years ago, April 5, 2014. I happened across it this morning while looking for something else. It's hard to believe how fast "open season" became the norm in a free market society for buying something so important as health care insurance. Under ObamaCare Americans were told they could only buy health insurance during a three-month window every year. Can you imagine if that applied to everything we did in society?

Anyway, here's the earlier post:

ObamaCare: The End of Year-Round Enrollment

I did not know this. I thought "open season" was the rule, not the exception. It appears that prior to ObamaCare one could buy health insurance year-round. If one already had health insurance, one would renew during "open season," generally the last three months of the calendar year.

But now it appears that ObamaCare has eliminated the possibility of buying health care year-round. ObamaCare mandates purchasing health care during "open season." The AP is reporting:
Here's more fallout from the health care law: Until now, customers could walk into an insurance office or go online to buy standard health care coverage any time of year. Not anymore.
Many people who didn't sign up during the government's open enrollment period that ended Monday will soon find it difficult or impossible to get insured this year, even if they go directly to a private company and money is no object. For some it's already too late.
With limited exceptions, insurers are refusing to sell to individuals after the enrollment period for HealthCare.gov and the state marketplaces. They will lock out the young and healthy as well as the sick or injured. Those who want to switch plans also are affected. The next wide-open chance to enroll comes in November for coverage in 2015.
A couple of comments: first, who cares?

Second, we are finally starting to see some "truth-in-advertising" stories about ObamaCare in the mainstream media. This is not good news for incumbents running for re-election who voted for ObamaCare.

Third, this whole article if full of malarkey.

The "open season" is another red herring. The deadline has been extended so many times, we had a six-month open season, and even this article admits that folks who have started the process can continue, thus extending the "open season" to about seven or eight months. Reminder for low-information crowd: a typical calendar year has twelve months. 
But this is the real story: I can guarantee you that anyone who wants to buy insurance at any time will find some insurer who will be accommodating. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some insurers will simply start the process now (April, 2014) with hopes that one's enrollment process will be complete by October, in time to receive the pre-filled voter registration form along with the insurance card.
I recently had a minor leak around the bottom of the toilet bowl which necessitated repair and replacement of the bathroom flooring. What a hoot if I had logged on to the Obama Plumbing and Voter Registration Website only to find out that one could only get one's plumbing needs resolved during "open season," i.e. three months at the end of the year.

What a great country. Obama certainly had all the right ideas for this country.

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Global Shale Reserves -- December 30, 2017; Another Win For Trump

From The Wall Street Journal, global shale reserves as estimated by the EIA:


One can see how conservative these estimates are. Some have suggested with 10% primary recovery (which now appears to be low) and 500 billion bbls original oil in place, the Bakken alone has 50 billion bbls recoverable shale oil. Yes, I know. Don't get me started.

Also: "The numbers from the rather dated US Energy Information Administration-commissioned study are estimates of technically recoverable RESOURCES, NOT RESERVES. One might expect a financial paper to know the difference.." -- Comment at the linked article.

The earliest the Russians will start seeing significant shale oil production is the mid-2020's according to the linked article, at which time it will account for about 2.5% of Russian crude oil production.

Bottom line: a story well ahead of its headlights.

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ObamaCare: Another Win For Trump

From The Wall Street Journal today:
A federal judge in Washington ruled the Trump administration can make sharp cuts to subsidies Medicare pays some hospitals for pharmaceuticals, a blow to the American Hospital Association and others fighting in court and Congress to halt the reductions.
The hospital association and two other health-care trade groups had filed a lawsuit against the Department of Health and Human Services in an attempt to stop the cuts. But U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras on Friday dismissed the case, saying the plaintiffs cannot sue before exhausting other avenues to challenge the cuts, as required by law. The other trade-group plaintiffs were the Association of American Medical Colleges and America’s Essential Hospitals.
Judge Contreras’s ruling means Medicare can proceed with the cuts, scheduled to start Jan. 1. The administration estimates the cuts will reduce annual drug spending by Medicare and beneficiaries—who pick up some of the cost of certain drugs—by about $1.6 billion.
Flat out, this is a win for patients,” said Rena Conti, a University of Chicago associate professor who studies health policy.

Saturday, December 23, 2017

The Witch Is Dead -- December 23, 2017

Going biking. Christmas Eve eve. Heavy, heavy traffic. Very dark. Should be a sporting ride.

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My, How Quickly Things Change In Washingon

From don't mess with taxes.com
IRS goes against Trump's "order. IRS backs off Trump's Obamacare order, will enforce ACA coverage reporting rule.What's going on with the Affordable Care Act (ACA)? It depends on where you're looking for answers.

Federal lawmakers remain in a quandary over how to deal with the ACA, or as it's known (for now) Obamacare.

The Internal Revenue Service, however, made it clear this week that it plans to follow the health care law's reporting requirements as long as they are officially on the books.

That's a reversal of a prior IRS position.

However, given the confusion with the law, both under its namesake president and since Donald J. Trump moved into the Oval Office, the tax agency's position change isn't surprising.
I find it amazing that a government agency that works directly for the executive branch ignores the President of the United States. Tell me again about draining the swamp. Tell me again there's no "deep state." But I digress.

Flash forward two-and-a-half months: Congress easily passes and president wastes no time signing the biggest tax cut in the history of the US which, among a few other things, specifically states that, "no, the IRS won't enforce the individual mandate."

Ding, dong, The witch is dead.

ObamaCare. Effectively. Repealed. RIP.

The Wizard of Oz


Thursday, September 7, 2017

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #476 -- September 7, 2017

Earlier today I posted:
ObamaCare bailout: insurers have nothing to worry about. Now that Trump is cutting deals with Pelosi and Schumer, the health insurers will do just fine, thank you. It appears the insurers will continue to get their money from DC to fund ObamaCare, but at the same time, the insurers will reduce coverage, cut and run.
I wrote that tongue-in-cheek. I surmised it was going to happen but did not have a link, nor was I even interested. Now tonight, while reading today's on-line edition of The WSJ this story: a plan to fund health insurer payments coalesces. A deal to fund insurer payments critical to the health law took shape, even as conservative lawmakers and the White House push an alternative.
The contours of a deal to fund insurer payments critical to the Affordable Care Act took shape Thursday, even as conservative lawmakers and the White House pushed an alternative plan to repeal parts of the law.
Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) said he hoped to reach an agreement with Democrats by the end of next week on the insurer payments, which offset subsidies they provide low-income consumers.
At a hearing Thursday, Mr. Alexander suggested he would be willing to authorize the subsidy payments for multiple years, as Democrats are demanding, in exchange for “structural changes” to the ACA, also called Obamacare.
And so it goes.

For the record, I've lost all interest in ObamaCare. I still post updates but however it turns out, I no longer care. From an investor's point of view, it's another open book test. Perhaps the most interesting question is whether RINOs will even dare bring this issue up in the 2018 mid-term elections.

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

The Political Page, T+215 -- The Train Has Come Off The Tracks -- August 23, 2017

Max called it a train wreck, even though he voted for it, and then promptly left the US Senate. We've been watching that train wreck in slow motion. The Republican-led US House and US Senate who sent up "repeal and replace" bills on a regular basis to a Democratic president were unable to replicate those actions when they had a president who promised to sign any such bill to "repeal" ObamaCare.

The result?

The train has come off the tracks.

The most recent state that has taken action to save some passengers is Iowa. From The Wall Street Journal:
Iowa asked for federal permission to alter major provisions of the Affordable Care Act next year, a proposal that will be closely watched by officials in other states who hope to rewrite parts of the health law as Republican efforts to do so in Congress have stalled.
Iowa’s plan, which state officials said they are already preparing to implement pending federal approval, would go further than proposals that other states have made so far to revamp the health law’s rules. The Iowa setup would offer just one type of insurance plan in the individual market and reshape the subsidies that help people buy coverage, among other changes.
State officials, who are formally filing for federal approval under a special waiver setup allowed by the ACA, argue they need to repair an exchange market that is expected to be down to just one insurer that has requested sharp rate increases for 2018.
States including Idaho, Minnesota and Oregon have submitted applications for less-sweeping waivers that aim to blunt insurers’ expense for covering the claims of people with costly health conditions.
In total, 13 states have passed laws authorizing state officials to craft ACA waiver requests, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. At least six others are considering such legislation.
“The most urgent thing for states is to stabilize the markets,” said Rosemarie Day, a health strategist and former chief operating officer of the Massachusetts exchange. But the waiver process also “opens the door to trying to accomplish some things Republicans are trying to do,” like limiting benefits currently required under the ACA. “This could be a backdoor way.”
OMG, a backdoor way. Well, if Schumer and McCain are blocking the front door ... 
Some states, such as Oklahoma, have signaled they intend to seek waivers that, like Iowa’s, could make big changes to the ACA. If those proposals proceed and are granted by the Trump administration, the upshot could eventually be a patchwork of different insurance setups across the country. However, the ACA includes firm conditions that such waivers must meet, including that coverage must be as affordable and comprehensive as it is under the federal law’s setup.
"Must be as affordable...." Don't make me laugh. That's an easy bar to meet. And as comprehensive as the federal law -- look at the bronze plans -- about the only thing they guarantee is family planning and end-of-life counseling, also easy bars to jump.
Iowa Insurance Commissioner Doug Ommen, a Republican, said the state has worked with the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and that it hoped to get its new system up and running before individual-plan enrollment kicks off in November.
“We’re doing everything that’s needed to start it up as though we already had a yes,” he said. Iowa is also asking federal officials to move faster than the 180-day waiver review timeline designated by the ACA.
The founding fathers, even if some were slaveholders, had great sense when it came to states' rights.

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Fox Business 

Provides background to the two September, 2017, deadlines

Friday, August 18, 2017

The Political Page, T+210 -- August 18, 2017

ObamaCare: Iowa's only insurer seeks 57% rate increase. The good news? Only affects about 14,000 Iowans and most of the "shock" will be absorbed by taxpayers across the US who will provide subsidies pretty much making the premiums moot for those who qualify.

Thursday, August 3, 2017

The Political Page, T+195 -- August 3, 2017

Updates

August 17, 2017: source -- http://joannenova.com.au/2017/08/australia-denmark-germany-vie-to-win-highest-global-electricity-cost-its-the-nobel-price-prize/.



Later, 3:44 p.m. Central Time: see comments. For Australian pricing, see http://aemo.com.au/. I just looked -- yes, the pricing is insane. Check the spot price in about 45 minutes -- about 4:30 p.m. Central Time to get an idea. Right now, South Australia spot price is about $AUS 130/MWh, compared to the outrageous price of $60/MWh right now in New England. $1AUS = 0.8 USD. So, I assume AUSD $130/MWh works out to about 83 USD.

Later, 3:41 p.m. Central Time: see comments. Connecticut proposing "conservation fee" (aka, a new tax) on heating oil for those who use heating oil to heat their homes.

Original Post

If I did not blog, I would not have known this: the highest electric rates in the world are in Denmark.

For new plants/farms:
  • coal/natural gas: $1 million/MW or less
  • wind, on-shore: $3 million/MW
  • wind, off-shore: $5 million/MW
  • solar: $6 million/MW
Who has a lot of off-shore wind? Denmark.

Which country has the highest electric rates? Oh, I already noted that.

Now this: South Australia now has the highest electric rates in the world. Absolutely crazy; Australia is energy-rich; why in the world did it get sucked into this fad? Musk Melon said he could solve Australia's problem in less than 100 days. From the linked source:
As of July 1, 2017, electricity prices in the state of South Australia are the highest in the world, exceeding Denmark’s due to price increases of between 15.3 and 19.9 percent by its three major electric utilities.
In nearby New South Wales the problem is not much better, with more than 60,000 households at risk of having their power cut off because they cannot afford the bills.

Further, South Australia is faced with the possibility of brownouts and blackouts due to the intermittency of wind power. During a power outage last September, electricity prices rose to 200 cents per kilowatt-hour—about 20 times higher than the average U.S. electricity price. The blackout, which impacted 1.7 million people, started when a wind farm suddenly stopped providing 200 megawatts of power and destabilized the grid. Despite the blackout and high prices, South Australia plans to invest another $100 million in renewable energy.

South Australia’s reliance on wind power makes large blackouts more likely because the electricity generated is intermittent and does not coincide with the times of day when power is needed most. Intermittent renewable energy, wind and solar power, represent 53 percent of South Australia’s electricity mix. What’s more, the state closed its last coal-fired power station, thereby providing less back-up power during peak demand.
The shut down of the coal-fired generator at Port Augusta last year destroyed a supply of affordable energy for the state’s households and businesses.

Major businesses in South Australia have threatened to suspend operations entirely until the electricity price is lowered and some smaller operations have already closed.
There is so much more at the link, but this is a good start.

EDI.

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Aetna Reports Great Earnings -- Pulling Out Of ObamaCare

Huge interview with the Aetna CEO on CNBC. Something tells me the mainstream media is starting to see the failure of ObamaCare.

Aetna will pull out of ObamaCare in all states by 2018.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Retail Gasoline On East Coast 6 Cents Lower Than National Average -- Colonial Gasoline Pipeline Back On-Line After Spill / Interruption - November 8, 2016

All that anxiety about the Colonial Pipeline gasoline spill and interruption? Never mind:
Gasoline is expected to reach as far north as Charlotte, North Carolina within a day of Line 1's restart. Gasoline shipments on Colonial's system are expected to reach as far north as Baltimore, Maryland, by Tuesday and to reach their northern terminus in Linden, New Jersey, near New York Harbor, by Wednesday.
EIA's weekly retail price for regular gasoline for the Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) was $2.17/g as of Monday, November 7, virtually unchanged from the previous week, and 6 cents/g below the national average. -- EIA


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The Tesla Page

We drove through Prum, Germany, many times when we were stationed at Bitburg Air Base many decades ago. Sleepy little town. I'm not sure why we visited Prum except that we had friends in the area. Link here.
In the midst of seeking investor approval for a merger with SolarCity Corp., Tesla made a surprise announcement that it’s acquiring a small German engineering firm to help automate and accelerate production at its factories.
The carmaker led by tech industrialist Elon Musk said in a blog post today that it plans to buy Grohmann Engineering, based in Prüm, Germany, and rename it Tesla Grohmann Automation.
The firm, led by founder Klaus Grohmann, specializes in highly automated manufacturing techniques and will help Tesla fulfill Musk’s goal of designing the “machine that builds the machine,” his vision of advanced vehicle production that’s a step change from current conventions.
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The Apple Page

Ireland will formally appeal that $14 billion Apple tax ruling this week. Link here.
Apple previously said it is "confident" the ruling "will be overturned" by European courts, but noted the process is "likely to take several years."
Apple said it has "provisioned several billion dollars for the U.S. for payment," but it does not expect any near-term impact on its financial results.
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The Atmospheric CO2 Page

Link here. Not much movement in the big scheme of things. Fortunately.
  • October, 2016: 401.57 (an increase of 0.8% yoy FWIW). 
  • September, 2016: 401.01
  • August, 2016: 402.24
  • July, 2016: 404.39
  • May, 2016: 407.70
  • April, 2016: 407.57
  • March, 2016: 404.83
  • February, 2016:  404.16
  • January, 2016: 402.52 
  • October, 2015: 398.29

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Missing Persons Page

Whatever happened to Jon Gruber?


Whatever happened to Randolph Scott?

Whatever happened to Randolph Scott, Statler Bros

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Takeaway For ObamaCare According to Washington Post -- Shop Around (Note: Only One Insurer In Most Of Arizona) -- November 1, 2016

From The Washington Post:
Monthly insurance premiums for popular plans on HealthCare.gov are rising by 25 percent on average next year, according to government data. But the increases will be more dramatic in certain parts of the country, the numbers show.
Take somebody living in Phoenix, where the cost of the premium for a benchmark plan is growing by a whopping 145 percent to $507 a month in 2017 when compared to this year, according to an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which tracks how premiums are changing in some major cities.
In Birmingham, Ala., health care premiums for a similar plan are climbing by 71 percent next year to $492 a month. And in Oklahoma City they are growing by 67 percent.
Premium rate rise in major cities in these states:
  • Arizona: 145%, to $507/person -- $2,000 for a family of four; with high deductible; high co-pay
  • Alabama: 71%, to $492 / person -- ditto
  • Oklahoma: 67% 
Personally, I don't see a lot of difference between $507 and $492, but then again, maybe that's just me.

Premium rates will generally be greater in rural areas than in major urban areas according to the linked article.

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Movie Review

IDMB movie review of Leonardo Di Caprio's global warming movie -- hoping to win a Nobel Peace Prize, no doubt:
Basically DeCaprio was told by Al Gore (who has made a hundred millions of dollars by preaching global warming after he retired from political life, gained a bunch of weight and had nothing to do) that anthropological global warming is real, and from that point onward DeCaprio was convinced. LOL!
Then DeCaprio presents the ole “97% of scientists” lie that has traveled around the world. In reality 66% of scientists have no opinion about AGW — Those opinions were conveniently thrown out of the messaged John Cook study. Then DeCaprio presents cherry picked anecdotal evidence, without ever questioning whether it’s a case of Texas Sharpshooting. Why didn’t he present the Vostok Station / Greenland ice core data to put the last 100 years IN PERSPECTIVE versus the last 5,000 years, 11,000 years and 420,000 years?
And if he’s such a big fan of anecdotal evidence over temperature data then why didn’t he mention that Greenland used to be green? That 20,000 years ago New York was covered by a mile thick glacier? Why didn’t DeCaprio interview Patrick Moore, the co-founder of Greenpeace, who is not part of “Big Oil” and doesn’t buy into AGW?
Because DeCaprio suffers from confirmation bias. The rest of this propaganda piece (I mean movie) continues under the ASSUMPTION that humans are causing the planet to warm and we all need to agree to tax ourselves more. No thanks.
The movie, by the way, bombed. 

Monday, October 31, 2016

Trick Or Treat: And You Thought $600 EpiPens Were Expensive: Folks In Arizona Haven't Seen The End Yet -- But It's On Their Radar Scope -- October 31, 2016

The ObamaCare TrainWreck, aka The Affordable (LOL) Care Act was recognized from the beginning the debacle it would become. Its chief advocate even admitted later it was a "trainwreck," coined the word, and retired from the Senate.

Over the years, the right-wing as defined by the left-wing led the charge in warning Americans of the debacle, aka trainwreck. I've linked many of those stories, and was one of the first ad-free blogs to explain how the three-legged stool called ObamaCare was configured. I now have a separate page to track the ObamaCare tipping point -- when I remember to update it. For the most part, the whole story now bores me. As does wind energy.

For the past few months or so, I've pretty much quit linking ObamaCare stories from "marginal" sources; the story has been told and only those living under the Geico Rock remain unaware of it.

But then even I am surprised when really, really quality business magazines and newspapers come up with a full-page story on how really bad ObamaCare is.

Today I was surprised again. It was a link at the Drudge Report. I assumed it was a link to an alt-right or a right-wing marginal news outlet. Nope. The Wall Street Journal:
Inside the Affordable Care Act’s Arizona Meltdown.
Nearly every county in the state now has only one insurer selling plans through the health-care law’s exchange, and premiums are soaring.
The Obama administration has said those Americans with a "modest" annual salary of $25,000 will be offered health insurance at subsidized (not free) rates (with high deductibles and high co-pays. 

I'll read the story later. Halloween trick-or-treating is about to begin.

Be careful out there. And now clown costumes. 

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Seventeen Bakken Permits Renewed In North Dakota; PDVSA Could Default As Early As Next Week -- My Hunch: One Big Bluff; Update On The ObamaCare Trainwreck -- October 18, 2016

Active rigs:


10/18/201610/18/201510/18/201410/18/201310/18/2012
Active Rigs3267190184186

No wells coming off confidential list Wednesday.

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments: permits for a 3-well pad, Patsy, section 17-151-98 
Seventeen (17) permits renewed:
  • CLR (11): three Elveida permits and three Bliss permits, all in Divide County; three Cuskelly permits in Dunn Count; two Boulder Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Whiting (2): two niemitalo permits in Mountrail County
  • QEP (2): two MHA permits in Dunn County
  • Petro-Hunt: one Hoiby permit in Mountrail County
  • EOG: one  West Clark permit in McKenzie County
No DUCs reported as being completed

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The 2017 Trainwreck

Finalized rates for big health insurance plans around the country show the magnitude of the challenge facing the Obama administration as it seeks to stabilize the insurance market under the Affordable Care Act in its remaining weeks in office.
Market leaders that are continuing to sell coverage through HealthCare.gov or a state equivalent have been granted average premium increases of 30% or more in Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Kansas, Mississippi and Texas, according to information published by state regulators and on a federal site designed to highlight rate increases of 10% or more.
In states including Arizona, Illinois, Montana, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, the approved rate increases for the market leader top 50%.
In New Mexico, the Blue Cross Blue Shield plan agreed to resume selling plans through the online exchanges after sitting out last year, but has been allowed to increase rates 93% on their 2015 level.
Dominant insurers in Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland and Oregon have been allowed to raise premiums by 20% or more, and rate increases from similarly situated carriers in Colorado, Florida and Idaho are brushing up against that threshold.
Does anyone even care any more? At least you can keep your insurance plan if you like it.

HillaryCare will solve problem overnight: Federal government will be payer of last resort for those unable to find "affordable" rates. By executive order.

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Tic, Tic, Tic: Venezuela's Giant Oil Company Could Fail Next Week

Link here.  Probably a bluff. The company wants its debt repayment schedule to be delayed three .... years. One would think that if PDVSA defaults, the government default won't be far behind.

Sway, Dean Martin
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Connecting The Dots -- Or Note

I'm sure I'm completely wrong on this one, but it's kind of fun. One of my favorite movies is Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. One of the supporting characters is Toby Esterhase, "a self-serving Hungarian refugee hungry for promotion." There are a number of "interpretations" for this particular name.

Today, while reading something inconsequential, I came across the "Dreyfus Affair" -- which I finally understand after all these years -- and then discovered this name: Ferdinand Walsin Esterhazy, "an officer in the French Army from 1870 to 1898. He gained notoriety as a spy for the German Empire and the actual perpetrator of the act of treason of which Captain Alfred Dreyfus was wrongfully accused and convicted in 1894 (see Dreyfus affair)."

The names are too similar to be completely coincidental. But perhaps they are. 

Friday, October 14, 2016

And Why Is This Noteworthy? Doesn't Amount To A Hill Of Beans -- October 14, 2016

On July 18, 2016, I posted the #1 "image" journalists are watching for every five minutes.

Today we have the rotating beacon over at The Drudge Report. Doesn't amount to a hill of beans, but it is what is is.

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ObamaCare

It is interesting that now that President Obama has less than one hundred days remaining in office, his mouthpieces are abandoning him. I would not have posted this -- it's another "dog bites man story" -- but the source is impeccable (and I use the word loosely), Bloomberg: one million Americans are losing their health care as insurers "walk away." 
A growing number of people in Obamacare are finding out their health insurance plans will disappear from the program next year, forcing them to find new coverage even as options shrink and prices rise.
At least 1.4 million people in 32 states will lose the Obamacare plan they have now, according to state officials contacted by Bloomberg. That’s largely caused by Aetna Inc., UnitedHealth Group Inc. and some state or regional insurers quitting the law’s markets for individual coverage.
Sign-ups for Obamacare coverage begin next month. Fallout from the quitting insurers has emerged as the latest threat to the law, which is also a major focal point in the U.S. presidential election. While it’s not clear what all the consequences of the departing insurers will be, interviews with regulators and insurance customers suggest that plans will be fewer and more expensive, and may not include the same doctors and hospitals.
It may also mean that instead of growing in 2017, Obamacare could shrink.
As of March 31, the law covered 11.1 million people; an Oct. 13 S&P Global Ratings report predicted that enrollment next year will range from an 8 percent decline to a 4 percent gain.
Anyone still supporting ObamaCare is simply not paying attention or have a personal, vested interest, of which there are many. 

Not to worry: HillaryCare comes next. Hillary would be smart to stay as far away from US healthcare as possible. Let the Democratic leadership in the House and the Senate do the heavy lifting.

Friday, October 7, 2016

Latest Forecast, 3Q16: 2.1 percent — October 7, 2016

Latest forecast: 2.1 percent — October 7, 2016, dynamic link:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 7, down from 2.2 percent on October 5, 2016.
The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.28 percentage points to 0.24 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to –0.1 percent following this morning's employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The Trainwreck
The Chicago Tribune's View

Critics warned people not to hop aboard, that disaster was inevitable. But the president, his allies in Congress and lots of big insurance companies assured everyone that, even though they couldn't see the blueprints, they had, in fact, designed an unsinkable ship of government-run health care.

Now, billions of dollars and 17 failed co-ops later (actually 18, now, from an original 23), the captain and crew of USS Obamacare are demanding that everyone stay below-deck and continue bailing out their sinking ship and the insurance companies taking on more and more red ink in Obamacare exchanges.
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New Jersey To Increase State Tax On Gasoline

Update

Later, 6:14 p.m. Central Time: there's a lot more to this bill than simply an increase in oil prices. What little I know of it suggests this is a very, very good bill. It will raise $32 billion for highway infrastructure for the state of New Jersey over the course of 8 years, and half of that will come from the US government on a 1-for-1 matching grant. That is huge.

In addition, it eliminates New Jersey's "death tax." Right now, New Jersey has an estate tax that kicks in at a measly $625,000. That "death tax" is eliminated in this bill.

Finally, let's see what this costs an average commuter in New Jersey:
  • annual mileage: 20,000 miles
  • average mpg: 30 mpg
  • gallons of gasoline/year: 750 gallons (rounded up generously)
  • additional cost in gasoline tax: $0.23 x 750 = $175/year or $3.50/week -- about the cost of a Starbucks coffee one day each week on the commute 
I don't have a dog in this fight, but it seems any whining over this increased gasoline tax is ill-placed, considering that it simply brings New Jersey in line with other states' gasoline tax. 

Original Post
 
"Hikes it 23 cents." 

From Tax Foundation, July, 2015, state gasoline tax rates among the Central Atlantic States, New Jersey was the lowest:
  • Massachusetts: 26.5 cents
  • Rhode Island: 34 cents
  • Connecticut: 40.86 cents
  • New Jersey: 14.5 cents
  • Delaware: 23 cents
  • Maryland: 32.1 cents
  • DC: 23.5 cents
New Jersey had the 49th lowest gasoline tax nationwide.
  • Alaska, at 12.25 cents had the lowest state tax among all US states.
  • Pennsylvania, at 51.6 cents was the highest. 

Another Dismal Jobs Report, Though Bloomberg Spins It Again -- Remember The Magic Numbers; Unemployment Ticks Up -- October 7, 2016

Updates

October 12, 2016: this was announced last week (October 6) but I missed it; it must have really been buried. 
The number of announced layoffs by U.S.-based companies rose in September to the highest level in two months.
Employers announced plans to cut 44,324 jobs last month, a 38 percent increase from August, when total job cuts of 32,2188 fell to lowest total since May.
September's was the highest monthly total since July, when 45,346 layoffs were announced.
Despite the monthly rise, September's total was 25 percent below the announced job cuts a year ago.
The biggest job cutter last month was the education sector, rising by 363 percent to 8,671.
Fueling the cuts was the collapse of for-profit college ITT Technical Institute, which sustained 8,000 job losses.
Cuts in the computer industry in September totaled 4,152 jobs. The sector's year-to-date layoffs were second only to the energy sector, which announced 98,733 cuts for the nine-month period.
October 8, 2016: disappointing 156,000 jobs added in September -- USA Today. Honest analysis unlike Bloomberg. To the best of my knowledge, USA Today is the only major news outlet that noted this is the consecutive month in which the jobs number was disappointing.
Payroll growth was disappointing for a second straight month in September as employers added 156,000 jobs, which raised questions about the health of an economy that was expected to perk up from a prolonged slump in the second half of the year.
Reported last month: the Goldilocks number. Jobs created in August much less than forecast; expectations had been for 180,000. In fact, only 151,000 jobs were added, well below the magic number of 200,000 necessary for economy growth. Unemployment unchanged from a revised upward revision one month earlier.

Later, 2:58 p.m. Central Time: stock market drops after jobs report -- New York Times. That was the headline. And then this lede:
Suppliers of basic materials are leading the stock market lower in afternoon trading Friday after a solid report on hiring in the U.S. last month. [I can't make this stuff up.]
Later, 11:48 a.m. Central Time: wow, who wrote this report "September jobs report close to "Goldilocks" number." Wow. Here it is -- the Fed's Fischer. Talk about spin. Worthless. I guess that's why the market is down 101 points -- the jobless number was so incredibly great. LOL. Folks give Matt Drudge a lot of grief, but it certainly seems he has not lost touch with middle class Americans.

Later, 10:14 a.m. Central Time: as predicted, the Bloomberg spin countered. "US created lower-than-expected 56,000 jobs in September." -- CNBC. Almost 100 million Americans not in workforce; unemployment ticks up to 5.0%. Obama spinmeisters thrilled with report -- within their "broad" range of expectations. Their phrase, not mine - at the video at the CNBC-linked story.

Later, 10:11 a.m. Central Time: I predicted this screenshot in the original post (see original post below). Screenshot from the most quoted internet news aggregator in the universe:

 
Original Post
 
The magic number: < 200,000 jobs = stagnant economy.

Analysts forecast / predicted: 172,000 increase.

The number: 167,000.

The number is well below what analysts forecast, and the forecast was way below what was needed to exceed 200,000. Anything below 200,000 = economic stagnation.

However Bloomberg spins it, it's not a good report. We'll see those stories later today. Meanwhile, buried in the second paragraph it was noted that US unemployment rate actually increased to 5%.

Bloomberg would suggest that the rate rose because more folks went back into the labor market, which, of course, was not true. Again, anything less than 200,000 = economic stagnation, and the forecast was below that, and the actual number was below the forecast.

Wow.

Okay, got that out of my system. Time to move on.

Oh, one more thing: slowest recovery since US records began: CNN.

For the archives: Jack Welch's debunked jobs conspiracy, four years later. The article failed to mention, that in fact, the US government did indeed falsify the numbers -- see below.

When you read that article on Jack Welch remember this post from January 22, 2015:
Over the two years that I had been posting these updates, it had become clear/obvious that the figures were often suspect, if not outright falsified. On November 18, 2013, it was reported that, indeed, unemployment figures have been falsified.
In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington. 
The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated. 
And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


10/7/201610/07/201510/07/201410/07/201310/07/2012
Active Rigs3367192182190
 
RBN Energy: update on DUCs.
The inventory of drilled-and-uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. Lower 48 grew by nearly 1,900 between the months just before oil prices and rig counts collapsed and early 2016—a 50% increase in a roughly two-year period, according to new DUCs data in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) September Drilling Productivity Report (DPR—See the DPR DUC report here.).
Since January’s peak of nearly 5,600 DUCs, producers have been working down the national inventory of DUCs, with the DPR showing the overall count closer to 5,000 as of August (2016) ––but that is still up more than 1,300 from the December EIA’s 2013 baseline. This incremental growth in the number of “dormant” wells is key to understanding and predicting how long production can remain supported or grow in a low-rig count environment. Moreover, there are regional differences in the DUCs inventory counts and trends that provide critical insights on how various market factors are impacting drilling activity. Today, we walk through the EIA DUCs data for each of the producing regions.
Starting from the top left graph in Figure 1—the Bakken—the EIA DUCs spreadsheet estimates the Bakken carried 569 DUCs in December 2013. The inventory since then has been somewhat volatile but generally grew by nearly 300 (53%) to a peak of 866 DUCs in April 2016. Since then, DUCs in the Bakken have come down somewhat from that peak to near 800, but are still over 200 higher than in December 2013.
NDIC reported the number of DUCs in North Dakota in excess of 900, well above the peak the EIA reported.

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SandRidge Emerges From Bankruptcy

Data links:
  • Oklahoma-based company
  • $525 million in total liquidity
  • common stock once again listed on the NYSE
  • new board of directors
  • went into bankruptcy with more than $4 billion in debt
  • about $3.7 billion of that debt has been eliminated
  • CEO: James Bennett
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Fact-Checking The Fact-Checkers

Top story in Los Angeles Times today, the headline: "So, you think Obamacare is a disaster? Here's how California is proving you wrong."

I did not read the article, the headline was enough for me. Now let's check a few stories on ObamaCare in California -- from the Los Angeles Times and other sources -- fact-checking the fact-checkers.

California ObamaCare rates to rise 13% in 2017, more than three times the increase of last two years -- July 19, 2016

Rate shock: In California, Obamacare to increase individual health insurance premiums by 64 - 146% -- May 30, 2013.

Doctors boycotting California's Obacare exchanges -- December 6, 2013

So, when ObamaCare was first introduced in California, rates rose as much as 146% and physicians left the exchanges. [If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor -- not if your doctor leaves the exchange.]  And now, when the LA Times says California Obamacare is doing just fine, rates are rising three times the increase of last two years.

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The Market

Mid-day trading: the market must not have liked that dismal jobs report, nor the fact that it's being reported that President Obama increase US debt by $9 trillion during his short stay in the White House. The Dow 30 is down 101 points. NYSE:
  • new highs: 48  
  • new lows: 15

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Tennessee -- Ground Zero For ObamaCare Implosion; The War-Time, Nobel Prize-Winning President -- October 6, 2016

Updates

October 12, 2016: wow, this is quite a story. Remember, Minnesota was the most visible among states jumping on the ObamaCare bandwagon. Governor Dayton loved ObamaCare. Now, not so much. Governor Dayton: Affordable Care is no longer affordable Geico Rock 2016 award nominee. Even if he does not win "best in show," he will most likely win the honorary award.
Minnesota’s Democratic governor said Wednesday that the Affordable Care Act is “no longer affordable” for many, a stinging critique from a state leader who strongly embraced the law and proudly proclaimed health reform was working in Minnesota just a few years ago.
Gov. Mark Dayton made the comments while addressing questions about Minnesota’s fragile health insurance market, where individual plans are facing double-digit increases after all insurers threatened to exit the market entirely in 2017. He’s the only Democratic governor to publicly suggest the law isn’t working as intended.
Dayton’s comments follow former President Bill Clinton’s saying last week that the law was “the craziest thing in the world” before he backtracked.
“The reality is the Affordable Care Act is no longer affordable for increasing numbers of people,” Dayton said, calling on Congress to fix the law to address rising costs and market stability.
Much more at the link.
Original Post
 
I've seen numerous stories along the same line, but this may be one even folks in Hillary's camp can understand. In the WSJ today, an op-ed on page A15 -- ObamaCare's meltdown has arrived. Not linked; easy to google.

Helloooooo! Knock-knock, knock-knock. Hellooooo! Anyone home? Two new nominees for the Geico Rock Award 2016: Andrew Ogles, Tennessee state director, and Luke Hilgemann, CEO of Americans for Prosperity. The implosion began two years ago. I guess the folks at ground zero are now just climbing out of the rubble and writing about it. Wow.

The lede:
Tennessee is ground zero for ObamaCare's nationwide implosion. Late last month the state insurance commissioner approved premium increases of up to 62% in a bid to save the exchange set up under the Affordable Care Act.

"I would characterize the exchange market in Tennessee as very near collapse," the Tennessee insurance commissioner said.
Very. Near. Collapse.
Then last week BlueCross/BlueShield of Tennessee announced it would leave Nashville, Memphis, and Knoxville.

BC/BS said they had experienced losses approaching $500 million over the course of three years on ACA plans. This is unsustainable.
And it just gets worse from there. I don't think I will even link the article. As noted earlier, only the folks climbing out of the ObamaCare rubble are learning about this for the first time.

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The War Time President

This is a link to an AP story. The bottom line: President Obama would not be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize at this time.

AP tried to spin the story, suggesting that not everything Obama has done has been "bad." For example, "He is the commander-in-chief who pulled more than a hundred thousand U.S. troops out of harm's way in Iraq, ...." except that Obama's self-planned vacuum resulted in, everyone agrees, with the rise of ISIS. In response to  this "JV team," according to the AP, President Obama "also began a slow trickle of US soldiers back in." Incredibly bad policy to begin with, losing a war that had been won, and then, a response that was way to late, way to weak. (We won't even talk about Syria; and, of course, there are now pundits in Russia  who suggest a nuclear war between the US and Russia is closer than ever.)

I did not read the whole story, so I may have missed it, but it appears that the AP failed to note that President Obama is the first US president in history to have been at war the entire time he was president: and he was president for two full terms (assuming he doesn't find a constitutional loophole or create a constitutional crisis to extend his presidency, and his wars, which is not beyond the pale, if Trump has more electoral votes than Hillary at 11:00 p.m. Central Time, election night).

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Slowest Recovery Since WWII -- CNN -- October 5, 2016

The story has been known and reported for quite some time.

The "news" is that CNN is reporting this, that this is the slowest US recovery since WWII.

Considering not much happened before WWII -- with regard to the market -- except the 1929 crash -- one could say this has been the slowest recovery in modern US history, perhaps in US history, despite Krugman's and Bernanke's gazillions in helicopter money. I assume the helicopter money was sucked up by ObamaCare, Solyndra et al, and wind farms.

But then CNN goes on to try to "claw back" the facts. The headline says it all; after that it's all Clinton News Network.

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The Apple Page

Now, even the replacement Samsun Galaxy Notes are catching on fire -- one on an airplane. From Macrumors:
Over the past few weeks, Samsung has been replacing recalled Galaxy Note 7 smartphones that have faulty exploding batteries with new devices, but an incident today suggests the South Korean company's smartphone woes aren't over.

A Southwest flight from Louisville to Baltimore was today evacuated just before it pulled out of the gate because a Samsung Galaxy Note 7 smartphone started smoking. While no one was injured, there is a serious problem -- the Galaxy Note 7 in question was a replacement device that had been deemed "safe" by Samsung.

According to The Verge, the owner of the Galaxy Note 7, Brian Green, had replaced his original Galaxy Note at an AT&T store on September 21. The smartphone had a green battery icon and box the device came in features a black square, both of which are indicators of a replacement Note 7.

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Global Inflation Falls To Seven-Year Low -- October 4, 2016

Global inflation falls to seven-year low. WSJ. Data points:
  • global inflation rates fell for the second straight month in August
  • lowest level in almost seven years
  • seven years ago: global economy in the throes of a downtown that followed the financial crisis (mark-to-market mayhem -- see below)
  • inflation rate now at 2.1% (down from 2.2% in July)
  • smallest rise in consumer prices since October, 2009, when they increased by 1.7%
Perhaps Krugman was correct.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


10/4/201610/04/201510/04/201410/04/201310/04/2012
Active Rigs3268190183189

RBN Energy: Colonial leak's impact minimized by imports, use of line 2. The big story here is how one interruption in the nation's energy pipeline system can become such a huge story. Perhaps President Obama should shut down all pipelines until they figure out what caused the Colonial leak.
The increase in waterborne flows to the East Coast in response to the recent Colonial Pipeline outage illustrated the flexibility of supply in the U.S. motor gasoline market. At the same time, the lack of a lasting impact from the loss of 8.3 million barrels of gasoline to a key U.S. demand region highlighted the degree of oversupply in the market. Today we look at how waterborne flows helped to mitigate the effects of the Colonial Pipeline outage, and how flexibility in the East Coast motor gasoline market enabled it to handle unexpected supply constraints with minimal disruption.
Colonial Pipeline is the largest source of refined product supply for the U.S. East Coast. Colonial’s primary route (from Houston to Linden, NJ) consists of four distinct segments, which, like the “arms” and “legs” of an X, meet at Greensboro, NC. One of the two Houston-to-Greensboro lines is dedicated to moving motor gasoline (Line 1, capacity, 1.37 MMb/d), and the other line (Line 2; capacity, 1.16 MMb/d) can be used to ship either distillate (diesel and heating oil) or gasoline, each of which can be move sequentially through Line 2 in “batches”.
At Greensboro, these products go into breakout tanks; from there, gasoline and distillates are sent further north (again in batches) on two mainline pipes. Line 3 (capacity, 885 Mb/d) runs from Greensboro to Linden––where it connects with the Intra Harbor Transfer (IHT) system, which facilitates deliveries to terminals across the New York and New Jersey area. Line 4 is a 32-inch-diameter pipe (capacity, ~700 Mb/d) that runs from Greensboro to Colonial’s Dorsey Junction terminal near Baltimore, MD.
**********************************
US Propane Exports Now 2nd Largest US Petroleum Product Export

From the EIA:
In the first half of 2016, the United States exported 4.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum products, an increase of 500,000 b/d over the first half of 2015 and almost 10 times the crude oil export volume. While U.S. exports of distillate and gasoline increased by 50,000 b/d and nearly 140,000 b/d, respectively, propane exports increased by more than 230,000 b/d. Propane surpassed motor gasoline to become the second-largest U.S. petroleum product export, after distillate. --- EIA
*************************
That Phony Cut
  • OPEC is pumping at record levels even after end of summer surge
  • Nigeria, Libya are exempt from OPEC's "agreement" (Bloomberg story here)
  • Russia is not part of the deal
*****************************
Mark to Market and Boeing

Mark to market mayhem: Investopedia.
Boeing's unique accounting method helps improve profit picture: WSJ.

*****************************
President Obama's Foreign Policy Successes


*****************************
What President Bill Really Thinks Of ObamaCare

ObamaCare is a "crazy system": Bill Clinton.
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The Demise Of The Big Box Stores


*****************************
The Market


Late morning: flat; Dow 30 up about 5 points. Oil up five cents at $49.45. NYSE:
  • new highs: 55 -- CLR, another big whoop; Encana;
  • new lows: 13
Opening: Dow 30 up about 50 points, if I remember correctly.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Motorcycles On Main Street, Grapevine, TX -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 2, 2016

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

Sometimes I don't blog as much as I normally would because I am overwhelmed by all the negativity in the mainstream media.

Right now, I am unable to blog because of all the good news coming out of the mainstream media.

Nothing has changed, just my perception after visiting the Bakken this past week.

I think things are in a lot better shape than the mainstream media would have us believe.

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Note To The Granddaughters

This weekend, her dad took the oldest granddaughter to Houston where she was playing in a regional water polo tournament.

Meanwhile, her mother took the middle-aged granddaughter to all her soccer games and Olympic Development Program sessions.

And that left me with two full days of being with Sophia. She and I are joined at the hip. She can read my mind; I can read hers. I can anticipate when she needs something, and what she needs.

Tonight, Sophia and I spent the evening downtown. We had dinner in a 5-star French pastry restaurant on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, and then explored Main Street after dinner.

The motorcyclists were out; Sophia is fascinated by motorcycles, as am I. A short video of our time on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, tonight.

Motorcycles_Grapevine

Sophia was quite thrilled to be carrying the dessert -- chocolate mousse cake -- home in her little "doggie bag." Sophia picked out the dessert herself. The slice of cake they gave us could have served a family of four, so we had a fair amount to take home:

DownMainstreet

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ObamaCare Ailing, Failing -- NY Times

Link here. The details hardly matter. Anyone paying attention knows the problem. The newsworthy "thing" is that the NY Times has finally dared print what most of us have know for six years.

Meanwhile, over in Minnesota, the ObamaCare news gets worse every day. Link here.
Minnesota's top health insurance regulator says the state's individual market is in "an emergency situation" amid big rate increases for next year.
Department of Commerce Commissioner Mike Rothman said Friday that the five companies offering plans through the state's exchange or directly to consumers were prepared to leave the market for 2017.
He said big rate increases were the tradeoff to convince all but one company to remain for now.