Well, Let's See What Surprises NDIC Has In Store For Us Tonight -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49274B. 

Surprise, surprise: the daily activity reports for yesterday and today have posted. Wow.

WTI: $60.69.

Active rigs: not reported today.

Six new permits, #42359 - #42364, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (4); Iron Oil Operating
• Fields: Ray (Williams); Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Iron Oil has permits for two South Shell well,  ... I got this far and then realized this was yesterday's daily activity report -- not today's DAR .... so that's it for me. Today's DAR was not posted. 

Except one producing well reported as completed:

• 41338, A, MRO, Bailey 14-7H, Dunn County;

We'll get the new permits today by looking at the "scout ticket data":

• 42364, loc, Hess, GO-Peters-157-97-3220H-3, Ray, lot 3, section 2-156-98, to be sited 539 FNL and 1445 FWL;
• 42365, loc, Hunt Oil Company, Alexandria 161-100-33-21H-2, Alexadria, lot 4, section 6-160-100, to be sited 475 FNL and 355 FWL;
• 42366, loc, Hunt Oil Company, Alexandria 161-100-33-21H-3, Alexadria, lot 4, section 6-160-100, to be sited 475 FNL and 385 FWL;
• 42367, loc, Hunt Oil Company, Alexandria 161-100-33-21H-1, Alexadria, lot 4, section 6-160-100, to be sited 475 FNL and 415 FWL;
• 42368, loc, Hunt Oil Company, Sioux Trail 160-101- 1-13H-3, Sioux Trail, lot 4, section 6-160-100, to be sited 475 FNL and 445 FWL; 
• 42369, loc, Hunt Oil Company, Smoky Butte 160-100-6-18H-1, Smoky Butte, lot 4, section 6-160-100, to be sited 475 FNL and 475 FWL;
• 42370, loc, Hunt Oil Company, Smoky Butte 160-100-6-18H-2, Smoky Butte, lot 4, section 6-160-100, to be sited 475 FNL and 505 FWL;

Chart Of The Day -- CAT -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49273CAT. 

Chart of the day: 

Re-posting: Apple iPhone 17 Lineup -- Computing Chips, Wi-FI / Bluetooth Chips, And The Neural Chips -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49272APPLE. 

Link here. 

Note: this is moving quickly, and it is confusing. There may be content and typographical errors.

It gets confusing. Re-posting: 

From AI: 

For the iPhone 17 lineup released in September 2025, Apple replaced the Broadcom Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chips across all models, including the iPhone Air.

Here's a breakdown of the connectivity chip changes in the iPhone 17 lineup:

Broadcom replacement: All iPhone 17 models—the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and iPhone Air—now use Apple's custom-designed N1 wireless networking chip. This chip handles all local wireless functions like Wi-Fi 7, Bluetooth 6, and Thread.

Modem differences: While the Wi-Fi chip is now Apple's own design across the board, the cellular modem technology varies by model.

        iPhone Air: Features Apple's new C1X modem.

        iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max: Continue to use Qualcomm modems for cellular connectivity.

Overall transition: The move to the N1 chip for Wi-Fi and Bluetooth signals Apple's continued push to replace third-party components with its own custom silicon. While the C1X modem is a step toward modem independence, the company still relies on Qualcomm for its highest-end cellular modems.

On another note, wi-fi is becoming so ubiquitous one wonders to what extent some users could do without the Qualcomm modem (or any modem for that matter). Of course, that's exactly what one can do with iPads and laptops. 

America's Sovereign Wealth Fund -- A Trump Initiative -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49271SWF. 

AI prompt: is the Trump administration establishing an American sovereign wealth fund by taking a stake in American companies?

AI reply: yes.

Following President Donald Trump's executive order in February 2025, the administration began laying the groundwork for a U.S. sovereign wealth fund (SWF).

The plan includes the potential for the U.S. government to take equity stakes in American companies, a strategy that has already been implemented with Intel.

Timeline of events

February 3, 2025: President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce to develop a plan for creating a U.S. sovereign wealth fund within 90 days. The order broadly stated the fund's purpose was to "establish economic security for future generations" and promote U.S. economic leadership.

August 25, 2025: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett confirmed the government's acquisition of a nearly 10% equity stake in chipmaker Intel. The stake was acquired using funding from the CHIPS and Science Act, and Hassett described it as a "down payment" on a future sovereign wealth fund.

August 2025: The government's stake in Intel and potential future deals were presented as part of a broader strategy. Hassett suggested that the government could take similar equity stakes in other companies as a condition for receiving federal funds, rather than simply providing grants.

August/October 2025: Following discussions about funding the SWF, sources indicated that the administration has since shifted its focus away from a traditional sovereign wealth fund. Instead, it now plans to use other entities, such as the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and a Commerce Department-run "Investment Accelerator," to target strategic deals in sectors like pharmaceuticals, AI, energy, and mining.

Potential funding mechanisms

One of the main questions surrounding the fund was how it would be financed, given the U.S. budget deficit. Potential revenue streams discussed included:

    Tariff revenue: Revenue from newly imposed or future tariffs.

    Sale of public lands: A controversial proposal that drew criticism from opponents.

    Issuing debt:

        For-profit stakes in companies: Taking equity in companies that receive federal funding, as was done with Intel.

Shift away from a traditional fund

While initially pursuing a traditional SWF, recent reports indicate the administration has pivoted to alternative mechanisms.

The focus is now on using entities like the DFC and a new Commerce Department Investment Accelerator to pursue strategic investments in key industries. 

These entities, like a sovereign wealth fund, are designed to leverage government resources to shape economic outcomes but may not have the same structure or scale as initially envisioned.

Re-Sale Value Of EVs -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49270EVS. 

Tag: POVs re-sale used cars underwater depreciation 

We've talked about this before; I can't find the original post regarding depreciation of cars, in general, and EVs in particular.  

From July 20, 2019: This was back in 2019 -- wow --

This was a big story on CNBC this morning after Tesla's numbers came out: 

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The Movie Page

Link here. 

Owen Wilson's five favorite Owen Wilson films.  

XFiles -- Day 2 Of Shutdown -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49269XFILES.   

Opening, chyron:

• AVGO: up over $9;
• BK: up 10 cents; one year: up 51%;
• TSM: up $3.58;
• AMD: up $5.82 
• CVX: actually up a little; wow;
• OXY: down 3%;
• BRK-B: down another $2.34 today;
• AAPL; down 0.14%; aka flat; 
• CAT: on a tear; up another $5.79 today. 

Tech sector: at record highs.

Tesla: delivered 497,099 EVs in 3Q25, exceeding expectations of 456K (some say 440K).

Tesla: most deliveries ever, in any quarter. 

Shutdown: by tomorrow, 1.5 million government employees projected to be furloughed. 

Shutdown: today, 750K government employees will be furloughed today.

Cellphones: no one used their cellphones any more as telephones. Don't take that out of context, Telemarketing is not entirely responsible but has played a major role. Next big thing: AI solves the problem.

Net worth:

• top 0.1%: 135K households; aggregate net worth: $24 trillion;
• bottom 50%: 67 million households; aggregate net worth: $4 trillion

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.

Day 2 Of Schumer's Shutdown -- Some Calling It the "Seinfeld" Shutdown -- A Shutdown About Nothing -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49268B.   

Shutdown: if you are in Schumer's camp, this is definitely a "shutdown about nothing," the "Seinfeld shutdown," but for the rest of us, we're not buying it.  

Default: not being talked about. 

A chatbot will explain this; could be huge development. 

At the moment, when 750,000 government employees are furloughed, all things being equal, the debt ceiling deadline will be delayed.

Also, 150,000 government employees took early buyout earlier this year, but only now, with the beginning of the new fiscal year, do those numbers show up. 150K is not trivial. Trump administration aggressively cutting "green" programs which will also allow Treasury to extend debt ceiling deadline, all things being equal. Historically, US Treasury won't raise the debt ceiling issue until two to three weeks out, and only if the US Treasury is very, very sure of their numbers. 

Tesla numbers are out: huge, huge numbers! TSLA surges. My hunch: this will pull the whole market higher today. TSLA is up 3.5% in pre-market trading, up over $15 / share. Deliveries in 3Q25: 497K vs 456K 

Rivian numbers are out: not a good look. Shares down. AI prompt:

Rivian released sales figures this morning. A superficial look suggests this is not a "good look" for Rivian. They lowered their guidance; federal incentives ended as of yesterday (October 1, 2025). Initial deliveries of highly anticipated R2 SUV is in first half of 2026, but initial volumes could be low due to slow ramp-up. Rivian is advertising a starting price of $45,000 but likely to be significant higher with more features. Cash burn for Rivian right now?

CAT: up over $6 (a little over 1%) in pre-market trading.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $61.52. Continues to trend toward $60. 

New wells reporting this next week. Link here.

RBN Energy: revisiting the Argus sour crude index's role in US crude pricing, refining.

In the early 2000s, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) were becoming increasingly disconnected from global fundamentals. WTI reflected conditions in the Midcontinent at the Cushing, OK, crude oil storage hub, where bottlenecks repeatedly distorted its value. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the problem contributed to the creation of the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) 16 years ago, how the index has evolved and whether it remains relevant today. 

In the years before the ASCI, Saudi Aramco had a problem. The official sales prices (OSPs) of their crude were linked to WTI, a volatile light sweet crude whose price reflected Midcontinent imbalances, even though many refiners on the Gulf Coast, where their crude was being imported, were configured to efficiently run a bigger slate of medium and heavy sour barrels. The result was a volatile relationship between the prices of WTI and imported crudes, which impacted the economics faced by Gulf Coast refiners. For Aramco, the solution was to abandon WTI in favor of the ASCI, a benchmark rooted in the sour grades that Gulf Coast refiners actually processed.

When the ASCI (see The Price You Pay) was launched in 2009, its three core Gulf of Mexico (GOM) sour grades — Mars, Poseidon and Southern Green Canyon (SGC) — were the major U.S. medium sour crudes with specifications close to Saudi Aramco’s Arabian Medium, a grade most Gulf Coast refineries were configured to run:

• Mars has an API gravity of about 30.5 degrees and sulfur content near 1.8%. Production at the time averaged roughly 255 Mb/d. Its yields included about 49% residue (the heavier fraction used for fuel oil or further upgrading) and balanced outputs of kerosene and gas oil in the 13%-17% range.
• Poseidon was even heavier and sourer, with an API of 29 and 1.98% sulfur. Output was around 90 Mb/d with similar splits, marked by nearly 20% gas oil and more than 50% residue.
• SGC was somewhat lighter with an API of 30.8 but contained higher sulfur at 2.2%. Production was close to 500 Mb/d with comparable yields, with nearly half the barrel going to residue.

In contrast to those three, WTI was a much lighter crude (39-42 API) with sulfur typically below 0.3%, requiring less-complex refining and yielding larger volumes of more valuable light products such as gasoline and naphtha, while producing significantly less residue. Gulf Coast refiners, however, had invested heavily in complex upgrading units — cokers, hydrocrackers and desulfurization facilities — designed to process medium and heavy sour crudes. These barrels were typically priced at a discount to light sweet crudes, allowing refiners to convert lower-cost feedstock into high-value products and capture stronger margins. This economic reality explains why sour GOM crudes aligned closely with the needs of U.S. refiners, and why Saudi Aramco’s adoption of the ASCI represented a logical break from a benchmark rooted in light sweet inland barrels.

When Saudi Aramco decided in 2009 to move away from WTI as the reference price for its U.S.-bound crude, it was more than just a pricing adjustment. It was a strategic shift that recognized the growing disconnect between paper benchmarks and the physical realities of the Gulf Coast refining system. The ASCI gave U.S. refiners a pricing mechanism that more closely reflected the barrels they processed. By the end of that year, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq had all adopted the ASCI as their benchmark for sales into the U.S. WTI continued to serve as the primary benchmark for domestic U.S. crude pricing and global financial trade, but for Middle East crude imports into the U.S., the reference point had decisively shifted to the ASCI. Financial markets also acknowledged the new benchmark’s role, with CME and ICE introducing futures contracts linked to the index, though trading volumes never matched the deep liquidity of WTI or Brent.

The shift away from WTI was both practical and symbolic. As shown in Figure 1 below, WTI’s price (black line) occasionally diverged from other major benchmarks due to storage bottlenecks in Cushing (see Give and Take). At times, volatility was so severe that even with monthly OSP adjustments, Saudi cargoes priced against WTI landed either too cheaply or prohibitively expensive compared to rival crudes. This was unacceptable for both Aramco and its customers. Also, crude OSPs should be priced based on physical trades rather than financial instruments driven by speculation. The ASCI offered that physical linkage, and it quickly gained credibility as a Gulf Coast benchmark.

Figure 1. WTI Cushing vs. Global Benchmarks. Source: EIA 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.

What We Will Be Talking About Today -- Day 2 Of The Shutdown -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49267ARCHIVES.   

See disclaimer. Scroll to bottom of this page. 

Yom Kippur: fast began last night, Wednesday, October 1, 2025, and will end at sundown tonight, Thursday, October 2, 2025. Day of Atonement; holiest day of the year in Judaism. 

A moveable fast, annually between late September and early October. Alongside the related holiday of Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur is one of the two components of the High Holy Days of Judaism. It is also one of the Ten Days of Repentence. Next up: Sukkot, Shemini Atzeret and Simchat Torah. The latter two mark the conclusion of the holiday cycle with a joyous celebration of the annual Torah reading.  

Most exciting chip stock today: AMD. But look at MU: up $15 yesterday (9%) and up again today in pre-market trading. AVGO: up over $10 (over 3%) in pre-market trading today.

Investing story right now: ETFs. Link here to The WSJ. Best ETFs right now. Motley Fool. SCHD; VOO; VXUS. Dividend yield comparison is interesting. 3.76%; 1,15%; 2.76%. 

Tea leaves: shutdown won't end before October 13, 2025.  

Shutdown: wow, the fog is beginning to clear. Schumer and Jeffries -- the real losers; it's all about AOC. 

This is being opined by several commentators today; most surprising -- that very theme in Scott Bessent's interview with CNBC's Joe Kernen this morning. Many data points: most concerning -- Schumer / Jeffries "plan" would add $1.3 trillion to US debt. But it's all about AOC. Schumer is in an existential fight with AOC. AI calls this meme largely driven by conservative, political opponents, ad speculation s ahead of the 2028 elections We'll see. So many story lines in this government shutdown. We're only into day 2. 

Scott Bessent: said Trump will unveil huge aid package for US farmers next Tuesday, October 7, 2025. Later: President Trump announces $10 billion aid package for US farmers. 

Scott Bessent, AI prompt:

How / when did Scott Bessent get involved with soybean farming in North Dakota? This seems to be a fascinating revelation. 

Scott Bessent: soybean farm in North Dakota. AI prompt: scott bessent soybean farm in "North Dakota". One of many links here. The New York Times article, August 13, 2025, link here. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has failed to fully comply with an agreement that required him to divest his financial assets, posing potential conflicts of interest as he leads the Trump administration’s economic policy agenda, The New York Times reported today.

“The biggest potential conflict of interest for Mr. Bessent is his ownership of as much as $25 million of soybean and corn farmland in North Dakota,” the Times said. “The land spans thousands of acres in Burleigh, Kidder, Eddy, Benson and Wells counties, and earns Mr. Bessent as much as $1 million a year in rental income, according to his financial disclosure form.”

“The sale of Mr. Bessent’s farms could be complicated by the U.S. trade war with China, which the treasury secretary has been actively trying to defuse,” the Times added.

BRK-B: $9.7 billion deal -- Oxychem deal.

Student debt: link to WSJ.  

Intel / AMD: may require a stand-alone blog.

Gen X: over the years; link to posts on the blog; link, 2018; google https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search?q=Gen+X; link.

Paul Rand: net worth. Two links. September, 2022. Current: $1.5 to $1.7 million.

Christian Nationalism in the US: at this link, scroll to the box in the lower right-hand corner. 

Gas turbines: a shortage; a huge concern. Link here. The Labubus of climate change?  

Local: severe funding shortage in our school district, GCISD, Grapevine - Colleyville, Texas, north DFW; the enrollment began in 2019, or maybe better said, after 2020. 

And that's the bigger story: what happened? I doubt the population has decreased in Grapevine - Colleyville over the past few years. So, what happened. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of students by ethnicity. Was the school board tone deaf? Blame it on MAGA / Trump? Link here. Enrollment has declined by 1,500 students since fall of 2019; resulted in a loss of over $10 million in revenue. Two elementary schools fell below 60% of utilization; four fell below 75% of utilization. How many schools in this district? Eleven. Four of eleven below 75% utilization. Unsustainable. High schools in same district between 2019 and 2024? A slight decrease but not remarkable. Yet.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.

Day 2 -- Government Shutdown -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49266ARCHIVES.   

Burned out: I'm too exhausted to be blogging at this time of night but I have to do something to get my mind off society's craziness.  

Jobs report today ... oh-oh. ADP numbers: payroll numbers decreased by 32,000; the estimate was the ADP numbers would show payroll numbers increased by 51,000. A "swing" of 83,000 -- in a country of ... 330 million.  

Trump's "most-favored college pact" initiative: if folks can actually get past the headline and read the proposal, again, it's pretty well-thought out. Most amazing: the number of foreign / international students that attend American universities. Link to The WSJ.

Heat: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/padres-mason-miller-makes-mlb-postseason-history-stellar-game-2-outing-vs-cubs. Pitcher: 104 mph. Commentators emphasized the pitcher, but imaginethe guy having to catch a ball traveling 104 mph. E=mc². 

Really, does this make you more likely to vote? Chuck Schumer and Hakeem "channeling Obama" Jeffries think so. Link here.  

Schumer began calling prominent Democratic leaders, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton, as well as progressive groups, and labor-union leaders to ask them to amplify the party’s message, according to people familiar with the calls. Schumer also deputized others in his caucus to persuade influencers that now was time to mobilize liberal voters itching to take on the Republican Party, those people said. "Those people." Whoever those people are. 

Portland will help carry the message. LOL. 

Day 2, from The WSJ:

WASHINGTON—Russell Vought has been planning for this moment for years.

President Trump’s budget chief—one of the main players in the government shutdown that has ground Washington to a halt—might also be one of its biggest beneficiaries, as the freeze gives him the opportunity to implement funding cuts he has long advocated.

Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, was quick Wednesday to target Democratic priorities and projects. In a move that affected Democratic congressional leaders from New York, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Vought posted on X that a hold had been put on $18 billion in federal funds for New York City infrastructure work: a Hudson River tunnel project and a subway extension.

US Senators departed Washington, DC, early Wednesday and won't return until after "holiday Monday," October 6, 2025. That's six days right there. 

The Transportation Department pinned the blame on the shutdown, saying a review of the projects’ contracting policies and their relationship to diversity, equity and inclusion requirements couldn’t move forward. “Without a budget, the department has been forced to furlough the civil rights staff responsible for conducting this review,” the agency said in a statement.

Vought also posted that $8 billion in Energy Department funds for climate projects would be canceled in more than a dozen Democratic-leaning states. He didn’t specify which projects would be affected.

The bigger story: the US Congress has quit working; Trump and his White House has not.