This Past Week Has Been An Incredibly Good-To-Great Week For Chip Companies -- For Intel, Not So Much -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49085INTEL.

I actually find this to be quite surprising.

 

From Tom's Hardware, one of the best Internet chip sites,

********************************
Meanwhile, Micron Hits Record High 

 

Rambling -- Talking To My Imaginary Friend -- Not Ready For Prime-Time -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49084ARCHIVES.

Boeing: on a day that the three major market indices hit all-time highs (needs to be fact-checked) Boeing fell $7.50 or 3.3% -- mostly likely due to this:

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said on Thursday that the planemaker is behind schedule on certifying the 777-9, its newest widebody jet.

The company expects to deliver the first 777X jet in 2026, six years later than anticipated when the program was launched in 2013.

A “mountain of work” remains to certify the plane, but no new technical problems have been identified.

But “even a minor schedule delay on the 777 program has a pretty big financial impact” for the company, which has already lost several billion dollars on the program.

Inflationary pressure across Boeing’s supply chain is affecting airplane pricing.

Microsoft: holy mackerel! MSFT popped $10 today, after-hours.

AI suggests: Anthropic partnership: On September 11, Yahoo Finance reported that Microsoft will use AI models from Anthropic—a company with funding from Amazon and Alphabet—to power Microsoft Office applications. The news suggests that Microsoft is diversifying its AI partnerships beyond its close ties with OpenAI, which is a positive sign for investors.

Comment: it's getting near-impossible for regulators to sort out what's a monopoly and what isn't. If one thought the oil companies had the market on obfuscation and shell games, the magnificent seven / great eight are raising that art form to a new level. 

TILT.  "Fast Money," CNBC, things I learned today or things that were mentioned in passing by the talking heads:

• US economic data is no longer trusted / accurate, so folks can interpret the data any way they want;
• much of the data is collected by incredibly antiquated methods that no longer make sense (if the methods ever made sense)
• much of the data is collected by making "cold calls" to folks with land lines;
• the panelists admit they no longer answer their phones
• I get so many spam phone calls on a daily basis I have quit answering my phone; my phone remains on "mute" 24/7;
  
• I schedule phone calls with those on my contact list via messaging
• seriously; do you answer your cell phone calls any more?
• where is all this money coming from: I posed this question to a Schwab executive and he had no answer; he had an answer but it was nonsensical;
• all three equity indices surged to new highs (Dow; S&P 500; and, NASDAQ); 
• Taylor Swift tickets at over $1,000 / ticket still sell out; and, 
• money held in money market funds remains at all-time highs and the MMFs continue to hit new highs

Something to watch: the Ellison father-son duo.

• Paramount Skydance buying all of Warner Bros Discovery; PS run by David Ellison;
• richest or second-richest man in the world, David's father Larry Ellison (Oracle)
• already, I'm sure, dad and son are talking.

When Skydance acquired Paramount, the Ellison family and their partners bought control of the media giant, gaining a vast library of content across film and television, including Paramount Pictures, CBS, MTV, and Nickelodeon, in exchange for providing capital to strengthen the combined company's finances and technology infrastructure.

The deal integrated Skydance's production expertise and technological capabilities with Paramount's global distribution and creative assets, forming a new entity that is publicly traded under the "PSKY" ticker on the Nasdaq.

• If I recall correctly, a lot of folks, including Warren Buffett, felt Paramount was incredibly undervalued;
• Hulu - Disney - ESPN - Amazon Prime - MGM has an incredible library to which I have access and yet there is a lot of stuff on Paramount I can't get without subscribing.

Disney: is watching closely. Media -- whether it's legacy libraries or new content, whether it's linear television or streaming -- all media is looking really good right now. Something completely unexpected. One word: sports.

Sports: if one is having trouble understanding this "media" mania, maybe one needs to look at the value of professional sports teams, particularly the value of NFL teams. But there's more: see lacrosse below and teh WNBA when Caitlin is playing.

YouTube videos: driving folks to Amazon Prime, YouTube TV, Paramount, MGM, etc. 

Exhibit A: last night I watched a 30-minute document on the "The Best Cinematography I've Ever Seen." Link to the video here. Link to the backstory here. In that documentary there were several movies I had not seen; I now want to watch them. Many of them are on Paramount -- I have the choice: subscribe to Paramount, or rent / but the movie via Amazon.

Premier Lacrosse League: apparently a big big announcement today; I haven't found the announcement yet; CEO opening line: "... if you bring in the Ellisons ..." -- that says it all. See note above regarding the value of sports teams and Paramount. Premier Lacrosse League, wiki. Posted five hours ago.

RMDs: so, anyway, were you able to answer the question I asked above -- where is all this money coming from?

Click on this tag: wealth transfer. My wife has already taken her RMD for this year; she's now watching her IRA surging -- gaining way more than she ever imagined and she's itching to make another withdrawal. It takes all I can do to have her wait to January 1, 2026, to take her 2026 RMD. I may or may not win that battle. LOL. But that's where a lot of this money is coming from.

Naysayers will say my argument is circular; I don't reply. The naysayers simply don't get it.

All the above written during "Fast Money." Now a few minutes of Cramer before I take Sophia to  soccer -- Jim Cramer's opening thesis was exactly correct. It will be interesting to watch his thesis play out. His bottom line: the bears have not participated in this rally and if things don't turn around for them, they're going to have a miserable fourth quarter and an even more miserable full year report. Exhibit A: BRK.

The next big thing -- many, many story lines:

A "crypto card Visa" is a type of payment card, typically a prepaid debit or credit card, offered by cryptocurrency platforms like Crypto.com and Coinbase, that allows users to spend their cryptocurrencies at Visa-accepting merchants. The card automatically converts your crypto holdings into fiat currency at the point of sale, enabling seamless transactions at millions of locations worldwide, similar to a traditional Visa card, but with the added benefit of earning crypto-related rewards.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

End-Of-Day Report -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49083B.

Market records:

• equities surge;
• Dow closes above 46,000 for first time ever; Dow gains 617 points today, a 1.36% rise.
  
• NASDAQ closes above 22,000 for first time ever; gains 157 points today.
  
• S&P 500 closes at all-time high also. Needs to be fact-checked. Adds 55 points.
  

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $62.30.

Active rigs: 34.

Six new permits, #42297 - #42302, inclusive:

• Operators: KODA Resources (4); Devon Energy; BR
• Fields: Daneville (Divide County); Painted Woods (Williams County); and, Elidah oil field (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• KODA Resources has permits for four Bock wells, NENW 21-161-102, 
• to be sited 545 FNL and 1769 / 1874 FWL;
• Devon Energy has a permit for an Owan Trust South well, NWNW 32-154-103, 
• to be sited 1008 FNL and 349 FWL;
• BR has a permit for a Sandie well, SESW 21-151-97, 
• to be sited 527 FSL and 2152 FWL.

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

• 40517, 1,029, BR, Keene 14-36 MBW-ULW, Dunn County;

Rate Cuts -- A Historical Look -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49082FED.

Long post. 

Bottom line: looking at the history of the Fed over the past ten years, the tea leaves suggest the Fed will only make 25-basis point cuts through the end of the year, perhaps, two; most likely, three; and, very unlikely, four 25-basis point cuts through the end of the calendar year (2025). 

On a separate note: tea leaves suggest --

• no recession coming;
• no stagflation coming.
• investors will be happy with inflation running around 3% (PPI and PCE, the latter the Fed's preferred measure).
  

****************************
TL:DR

ChatGPT prompt:

• In the past ten (10) years, how many times has “the Fed” made a 50-basis point rate cut in a single meeting? Has the Fed ever made two consecutive 50-basis point cuts.

ChatGPT reply: 

• In the Past 10 Years (2015–2025): How many times has the Federal Reserve made a 50-basis point (0.50%) rate cut in a single meeting? 

• Twice — and both occurred in 2020, during the COVID-19 crisis:
• March 3, 2020 (Emergency Cut):
• Cut: 50 basis points
• Fed Funds Target Range went from 1.50–1.75% ➝ 1.
• This was an emergency inter-meeting cut — rare outside scheduled FOMC meetings. 
• March 15, 2020 (Emergency Cut)
• Cut: 100 basis points (1.00%)
• Fed Funds Target went from 1.00–1.25% ➝ 0.00–0.25%
• Also an emergency cut — one of the most aggressive in Fed history. 

So while there were larger cuts (like 100 bps), the 50 bps cut specifically happened once during that sequence — March 3, 2020 — and was quickly followed by an even larger one.

 **********************************

Question: Has the Fed Ever Made Two Consecutive 50-basis Point Cuts? 

Answer: No, not in the past 10 years.

• The Fed has made multiple cuts in sequence, especially in 2001, 2007–2008, and 2020.
• But two back-to-back 50 bps cuts? That has not occurred. In 2020, we saw a 50 bps cut, followed by a 100 bps cut, not another 50. 

Historical Note: 

• The Fed has made back-to-back large cuts (including 50 bps or more) during financial crises:
• 2001 (dot-com bust): Several 50 bps cuts, but not necessarily two consecutively at 50.
• 2008 (GFC): Cuts of 50–75–100 bps occurred, but often spaced by other sizes or interspersed.

Summary

Question --- Answer

Two questions:

• Question: how many 50-bps cuts in the past ten years:  one -- March 3, 2020. An emergency cut.
  
• Question: any consecutive 50-bps cuts?    no -- never two in a row.
• however, there was one time whe a 50-basis point cut was followed by a 100-basis point cut, but that was also an emergency cut during the Covid-19 lockdown.
  

How Does The New Apple N1 Chip Affect Broadcom? Short Answer: Almost Not At All -- Don't Take That Out Of Context -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49081CHIPS.

Lessons learned: 

• one can ask ChatGPT anything;
• if you are not using ChatGPT (or a similar chatbot), you are flying blind.

Apple Silicon is tracked here. Chips are tracked here.

Apple suppliers: this schematic has been posted many, many times.

The schematic for the iPhone 17 series is not yet available, but ChatGPT will send me that schematic as soon as it becomes available.

I asked ChatGPT what specific Broadcom chip will be replaced by the new Apple Silicon N1 chip.

The answer: the Broadcom Wi-Fi + Bluetooth chip. 

Unknown is what other Broadcom components are "at risk." ChatGPT provided a list of components that could be at risk but none seem(ed) particularly remarkable and unlikely to be a major issue one way or the other. I could be wrong. 

ChatGPT also provided:

• an estimate of what Apple pays for each Broadcom chip (wi-fi + Bluetooth): and,
• what Apple pays Broadcom "all in" each year.

Phasing out the Broadcom wi-fi + Bluetooth chip was NOT cost driven. Don't take that out of context. It was driven by:

• Apple culture;
• supply chain control;
• software integration, efficiency, and power savings.

In fact, one might argue, throw in "privacy" issues, and these might be the big four issues that guides Tim Cook's decisions day in and day out.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

Micron — Whoo-hoo! September 11, 2025

Locator: 49080CHIPS.

Up 10%.

CPI And Jobless Claims -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49079ECONOMY.

Later: Fed will cut 50 basis points, perhaps consecutively. Market responds. But that was only half the story. Quick! What was the other half of the story driving the Dow 600 points and the NASDAQ 135 points?

Answer: the US Senate will vote to confirm Stephen Miran, Trump's pick, to join the US Federal Reserve No one thought the US Senate could move this fast. After that news broke this morning, the stock market took off.

Wow, wow, wow.

Steve Liesman missed it. He focused on the inflation rate. Didn't fit his narrative. Perplexed.

Rick Santelli got it right, again, as usual. Focused on the initial jobless claims. Recent record. Haven't seen a number this high in quite some time.

Initial jobless claims.

263K vs 234K estimate. 

Huge headline. 

Market: stayed green, improved a bit. Tariffs are not an issue with regard to inflation.

Even Rick Santelli agrees that a 50-basis-point rate cut is imperative. 

The only reason he won't go to a 75-basis-point cut is the effect it might have on the market, but more importantly, JPow wouldn't even think of going there.

GDPNow yesterday: 3.1%. Much better than the 2.1% we saw in early August. 

Now, the equity markets are dropping. Almost as if the market is now more concerned with deteriorating economy than with whether the Fed will cut rates.

Holy Mackerel: I Just Saw This On The Chyron! ABBV Up $11 -- Up 5% -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49078ABBV.

Focus on dividends.

ABBV was a huge dividend payer and that's what caught me attention years ago with ABBV.

I had a large position in ABBV at one time -- for the dividend -- but I no longer follow ABBV and and have no idea how much ABBV is in my overall portfolio (directly controlled; part of other ETFs, IRAs, etc) but seeing a 5% jump in ABBV certainly caught me attention.

We'll have to check later to see what this is all about. No news now. Later: secured patent protection on RINVOQ until 2037.

Overall, ABBV seems to be a trading stock. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

Should Tim Cook Be Feeling The Earth Move Under His Feet? September 11, 2025

Locator: 49077RAMBLING.

I don't know a shorthand way to capture the subject that interests me most right now

The question has to do with Apple and AI. 

I've spent a long time with ChatGPT this past week discussing the exact moment when Apple took down Nokia.

I've posted a lot of those conversations on the blog.

Discussion: the exact moment when the decision was made by Steve Jobs that ultimately led to the demise of Nokia and the unprecedented rise of Apple.

It was a 3-minute (maybe a 30-second moment inside that 3-minute presentation) when Steve Jobs made a life-changing decision. It was 1,000% intuition / inspiration.

In short, two pieces came together, for Steve Jobs: finger-swipe-on-glass. 

That moment was an earthquake in technology and Nokia should have felt the earth move under its feet.

Now, some analysts are suggesting that when it comes to AI, Tim Cook, like Nokia decades ago, should be feeling the earth move under his feet. Tim Cook is not known for Steve Jobs' intuition / innovation.

The question is whether the AI issue is "a finger-swipe-on-glass" issue.

I can argue it both ways. 

But at the end of the day, for me, after lots of thinking, lots of reading on this issue, it comes down to this for me:

Finger-swipe-on-glass:

• revolutionary
• absolute inspiration
• incredibly difficult to pull off technically
• being first would turn out to be critical
• caught the entire industry by surprise (if you doubt me, watch the Steve Ballmer interview when he laughs about the $500-iPhone)

AI embedded in IOS:

• evolutionary
• everybody is doing it or aware of it
• lots of social-political-cultural-security issues: has to be done right; getting it right is more important than being first; being first is not critical
• no longer a surprise

To calm investors: Apple needs to be excite / surprise investors with an AI announcement.

For the company: Apple needs to get "it" right. Two components of "it":

• getting AI right with regard to functionality;
• having right business model for incorporating AI into Apple (in-house vs buying vs partnering)

Reality?

• AI-embedded-in-IOS evolution is not analogous to the finger-swipe-on-glass revolution.

Another way to look at this:

• finger-swipe-on-glass was the whole enchilada
• finger-swipe-on-glass is sui generis;
• finger-swipe-on-glass is Apple
• if you don't agree, think what Apple would be today if all of a sudden something better came along that completely obsoleted finger-swipe-on-glass and it was not invented by Apple
  
• AI-embedded-in-IOS is but a part of the whole enchilada
• users already have access to multiple chatbots each with their own advantages / disadvantages
  

Bottom line:

• Tim Cook is not feeling the earth move under his feet
• ten years from now, maybe sooner, we will know whether he should have

David Rubestein On Squawk Box -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49076PERSONALITY.

Incredible interview. As good as anything I've seen on "Squawk Box," CNBC.

Focus On Corn -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49075CORN.

See update; important post.

Think:

• ethanol
• corn syrup
• cattle feed
• chicken feed

Link here.

USDA shocked the market with the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), in particular the record corn yield of 188.8 bu., which was well above trade guesses and nearly 10 bu. above last year. But they also surprisingly raised harvested acres pushing corn ending stocks back over 2 billion bushels. The report was more friendly for soybeans with a net decrease in carryout.

North Dakota corn yield, bushel per acre, plants 4.6 million acres: 

Iowa corn yield, bushel per acre, plants 13.5 million acres: 

Record yield:

David Hula may not break that record this year. Link here.

Two questions:

• dollar margins on these record yields vs "average yields" in the midwest;
• to what extent could AI increase "average yields" in the midwest;

OpenGPT prompt: 

Corn. US. Yield per acre. David Hula is recognized as the king of corn production, yield per acre, based on intensive methods, see: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/corn/600-bu-acre-corn-cards-year-david-hula-reigning-world-record-holder. The question is whether his methods are transferable to the midwest (Iowa, North Dakota) and whether David Hula's methods are cost effective, or significantly different than profits from corn production in the midwest.

Open GPT reply:

Short answer first: Yes — many of David Hula’s techniques are transferable to Midwest corn acres, but not all, and not without cost.

Hula’s approach is a systems approach (genetics + placement + nutrition + water + intensive in-season management). Parts of it scale profitably on Midwest farms; other parts (extreme rates of inputs, daily monitoring, heavy irrigation, contest-style management) are expensive and show rapidly diminishing returns on large acres. Below I summarize what he does, what transfers well, what doesn’t, and how to evaluate whether it makes sense on a particular Iowa / North Dakota farm. 

Bottom line:

• Transferable: genetics, planter/stand optimization, better fertility timing, precision ag, scouting — these are low-to-moderate cost changes with good upside.

• Not broadly transferable (or not profitable at scale): contest-level input intensities, heavy irrigation dependence, and the extreme labor/management intensity applied to single yield-contest plots.

• Best approach: run small on-farm trials, use extension budgets to model profitability, and adopt the high-value, low-risk pieces first.
  

What is corn used for?

New Apple Chips Announced September 9, 2025

Locator: 49074APPLE.

N1 and C1X.

Both big deals. 

• The N1. Replaces to some extent / great extent Apple's reliance on Broadcom.

The C1X:

• https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2025/08/c1-in-progress.html
• https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/09/apple-debuts-new-c1x-in-house-modem-the-successor-to-c1/

Also: Thread. And Matter. IoT. Slow adoption for home use, or perhaps it's just me. But huge competition between Apple and Amazon for this space.

I don't have Apple Home but I have:

• electronic access to front door; keyless entry; awesome;
• Blink security; excellent, monthly fee which has just been increased;
• garage door opener;
• storage unit door opener;
• community access to gate community;

So, I have minimal "Home IoT" use but I still have five apps on my iPhone (none are Apple) and/or five hardware gadgets that connect through my iPhone. 

Supercomputer Update -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49073SUPER.

New supercomputer: unclassified computer at Lawrence Livermore to complement existing El Capitan; link here. At the blog, supercomputers are tracked here.

• this might catch your eye: AMD and HPE;
• the speed of El Capitan can be attributed to its AMD Instinct MI300A accelerated processing units, which combine CPU cores, GPU cores and high bandwidth memory. 
• also important to the supercomputer are contributions from HPE, including its Cray Supercomputing EX solution, direct liquid-cooling system and Slingshot interconnect.
  
• El Capitan: #1
• Tuolumne: #10; on-line late 2024/early 2025
• of note:

The computing power El Capitan offers is unprecedented, lab officials repeated at the dedication event.

At peak performance El Capitan offers over a 22-fold increase in computing performance over Sierra, previously the fastest system at the lab, according to documents from the event. This means high-resolution simulations that would have taken weeks or months will only require hours or days on El Capitan.

Despite being about 1/10th the size of El Capitan, Tuolumne ranks as the 10th fastest supercomputer in the world thanks to its identical architecture and components to El Capitan.

“I think calling Tuolumne number ten doesn’t do it justice,” Budil said. “Our open science machine is bigger than our current, last generation national security machine. So this step is truly revolutionary for us in terms of capability.”

Screenshot from wiki, September 11, 2025: 

On stage for the announcement: AMD's CEO -- Dr Lisa Su.

Thursday -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49072B.

Thursday Night Football: only on Amazon Prime tonight. Commanders at Packers.

Market, implied opens:

• Dow: up 110 points
• S&P 500, after hitting another record yesterday: up 14 points
• NASDAQ: up 62 points

Inflation: from Yahoo Finance today.

Of all the news that came out yesterday, and there was a ton of news, for investors and US consumers, I think this was the biggest story. Caught CNBC talking heads, especially the morning crew and Steve Liesman slack-jawed (Trump was right: tariffs no big deal; and energy prices coming down will bring inflation down):

New supercomputer: unclassified computer at Lawrence Livermore to complement existing El Capitan; link here. At the blog, supercomputers are tracked here.

• this might catch your eye: AMD and HPE;
• the speed of El Capitan can be attributed to its AMD Instinct MI300A accelerated processing units, which combine CPU cores, GPU cores and high bandwidth memory. 
• also important to the supercomputer are contributions from HPE, including its Cray Supercomputing EX solution, direct liquid-cooling system and Slingshot interconnect.
  
• El Capitan: #1
• Tuolumne: #10; on-line late 2024/early 2025
• of note:

The computing power El Capitan offers is unprecedented, lab officials repeated at the dedication event.

At peak performance El Capitan offers over a 22-fold increase in computing performance over Sierra, previously the fastest system at the lab, according to documents from the event. This means high-resolution simulations that would have taken weeks or months will only require hours or days on El Capitan.

Despite being about 1/10th the size of El Capitan, Tuolumne ranks as the 10th fastest supercomputer in the world thanks to its identical architecture and components to El Capitan.

“I think calling Tuolumne number ten doesn’t do it justice,” Budil said. “Our open science machine is bigger than our current, last generation national security machine. So this step is truly revolutionary for us in terms of capability.”

Peak oil: IEA revisions. 

• IEA via oilprice; scathing report based on reporting from Bloomberg's Javier Blas; must-read;
• Anas Alhajji concurs; for two reasons -- reality; and Trump. That's what he says.

Carpool lanes: nationwide -- no longer will EVs get special privilege to use carpool lanes;

• will have major impact in California;
• sort of just happened -- again, Trump policy
• link here;
• does President Trump ever sleep; does he ever quit thinking about these things?

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: 463.48.

New wells:

• Friday, September 12, 2025: 20 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 553 for the year,
• 41519, conf, MRO, Partridge 41-13H,
• 40691, conf, Petro-Hunt, Wollan Creek 152-96-34D-27-2H,
• 40359, conf, Hess, BL-Davidson-155-96-0211H-9,
• 39742, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene 13-24F 5TFH,
• Thursday, September 11, 2025: 16 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 549 for the year,
• 41520, conf, MRO, Clawson 11-18H,
• 39743, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene 13-24F 6TFH,

RBN Energy: a new drill down report on waxy crude production in the Uinta Basin.

Oil and gas producers’ interest in each of the U.S.’s shale and tight-rock production areas has waxed and waned over the past quarter century or so. First it was the Barnett Shale, the birthplace of the Shale Revolution in the late 1990s. Then came the Fayetteville, Haynesville, Marcellus/Utica, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian, Denver-Julesburg (DJ) and SCOOP/STACK. And, as always, E&Ps are looking for “the next big thing.” The Uinta Basin in northeastern Utah certainly isn’t a Permian, Bakken or Eagle Ford, and it may not even be a DJ, but production of its unusual waxy crude has been on a tear lately, and a lot of people are asking how much further Uinta production can grow and how long those higher levels could continue. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on the Uinta. 

In just a few years, the Uinta Basin has been transformed from a quirky, waxy-crude curiosity with only modest production volumes to a burgeoning unconventional play with output of about 180 Mb/d (see Figure 1 below) and initial production (IP) rates that compare favorably with the best wells in the Permian. But while Uinta producers have “cracked the code” for producing increasing volumes of waxy crude from horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, there are serious questions about how much further the basin’s output can grow and how long large production volumes can be sustained.

Figure 1. Uinta Basin Crude Oil Production. Source: Utah Division of Oil, Gas & Mining

For one thing, while the Uinta’s two types of waxy crude (black and yellow) have a number of very favorable characteristics — medium-to-high API gravity, very low sulfur and acid content, and ideal for making high-value lubricants — waxy crude’s semi-solid state at ambient temperatures presents a host of logistical challenges.

When it emerges from wells, it needs to be stored in heated tanks. To be transported to market, waxy crude needs to be loaded in insulated tanker trucks (often double-tankers) and driven either to one of the five refineries in the Salt Lake City area or to one of two rail terminals southwest of the basin for long-haul shipment in special insulated and coiled railcars. At refineries, waxy crude again is stored in heated tanks and moved within heat-traced pipes to prevent it from solidifying and literally gumming up the works.