Friday, September 28, 2018

This Would Have Been The Perfect "Oil Story" Except It Didn't Mention: The Bakken; Killed Pipeline Projects; Iowa, Nebraska; Obama; Tom Steyer; Or Ford Pick-Up Trucks -- September 28, 2018

Article at The Hill here.
Brent oil, the world standard, relentlessly climbed from a low of $30 per barrel early in 2016 to above $80 per barrel today. A year ago, when Brent was around $55 barrel, some pundits foresaw a return to the 2016 lows; others saw the price languishing in the $50-$60 per barrel range.
Bearish forecasts reflected a tepid outlook for the world economy and expectations of fracking on an ever-larger scale coupled with new finds from deep-water drilling. Few observers reckoned that Brent might again exceed $100 per barrel, as it did between 2011 and 2014, or even reach $80.
Several factors combined to upset these bearish forecasts. On the demand side, massive tax cuts, taking effect in 2018, sparked the U.S. economy with global spillovers. Meanwhile, easy monetary policy in all advanced countries further promoted global growth.
On the supply side, the fracking rig count dropped dramatically when oil prices plunged in 2015 and has recovered only slowly since then. Fracking makes a much larger contribution to natural gas than to oil supply.
U.S. oil production continues to grow, but at a modest pace. Meanwhile, the major oil producers have been cautious about betting $3 billion or more on deep-water drilling off the coast of Brazil or Africa.
President Trump’s renewed sanctions may reduce Iranian oil exports by as much as 1 million barrels a day as European buyers reluctantly cut their purchases. This shock gives Russia and Saudi Arabia even stronger control of world oil supply.
The writer could have saved a lot of time had he just written, "it's all Trump's fault."

Production Update For XTO's Huge Sand Creek Well -- September 28, 2018

See original post and graphic here. It just went off line in the middle of 6/18 and is still off line (7/18).

The well:
  • 19889, 1,678, XTO, Sand Creek 21-10SH, Sand Creek, 12 stages; 2.3 million lbs, t5/11; cum 574K 7/18; not re-fracked;
Recent production:

Initial production:

Completion Data For MRO Wells In Reunion Bay -- September 28, 2018

Earlier, I posted this note:
  • August 15, 2018: completed DUCs with huge IPs (33550, 5,898; 33549, 5,284; 32012, 7,151; 33562, 4,882). In a couple of months check frack data. 
  • 33549, middle Bakken, 45 stages; 8.6 million lbs;
  • 33550, Three Forks B1, 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs;
  • 32012, Three Forks B1, 45 stages; 6.5 million lbs;
  • 33562, middle Bakken, 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs;

Kind Of Hard To Believe I Haven't Posted This One Before -- Equinor's Vachal Wells In Alger Oil Field -- September 28, 2018

The well:
The graphic:

The other wells in the graphic:
  • 31039, 1,145, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34F XW 1H, Alger, t1/17; cum 310K 12/20;
  • 22929, 1,898, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34 2TFH, Alger, t12/12; cum 222K 12/20;
  • 31038, 1,136, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34 7H, Alger, t1/17; cum 267K 12/20;
  • 31037, 785, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34 8TFH, Alger, t1/17; cum 234K 12/20;
  • 19764, see above
  • 22380, 2,209, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34 3H, Alger, t10/12; cum 222K 12/20;
  • 22381, 2,343, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34 4TFH, Alger, t1/16; cum 272K 12/20;
  • 31033, 1,909, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34 5TFH, Alger, t1/17; cum 279K 12/20;
  • 31034, 2,703, Equinor (Statoil), Vachal 3-34 6H, Alger, t1/17; cum 329K 12/20;

Random Look At A Huge Well -- SHD's Golden Well I Deep Water Creek Bay -- #19296

I need to get a life, LOL. I love exploring the Bakken vicariously. Tonight this one, a spectacular well:

The well:
19296, 2,388, SHD Oil & Gas, LLC, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, Three Forks Bench 1, 62 stages; 15.3 million lbs, TD = 27,141 feet; seam 215 feet thick (top of TF to top of Nisku); target zone = 10 feet thick; gas maxed out gas equipment at 9,998 units; t3/15; cum 660K 7/18;
For newbies: look at that. This was drilled back in 2015, fairly old by Bakken standards -- there wasn't much activity in this area when this well was drilled and there still isn't much activity.

Imagine: drilling down vertically almost two miles to target a seam 10 feet thick, and then drilling through that seam for two more miles horizontally.

And then look at the natural gas over-pressurization: natural gas maxed out the company's monitoring device at 9,998 units -- that must have been an exciting moment -- one wonders if the roughnecks were thinking about their emergency procedures ....

For newbies: also note that this is a Three Forks first bench well -- and it has not been re-fracked or affected by any newer well nearby.

Full production profile at this post. An incredible well including 50,000 bbls of crude oil in one month early on.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Initial production, note the dreaded Bakken decline:

Hope Springs Eternal -- XTO Proposes Unitizing A Large Area Of The Bakken -- September 28, 2018

Grinnel-Bakken and Hofflund-Bakken are contiguous -- is that the right word? -- think of a long rectangular field, with the eastern fourth being the Hofflund, and the western three-quarters being the Grinnell. I don't know much about the Hofflund -- I see it once in awhile -- but the Grinnell is a great field. It's amazing how much of the best Bakken is below the river and the lake. God has a sense of humor. The Native Americans were right: "we" never should have flooded what is now Lake Sakakawea. 



Link here. Data points:
  • XTO would like to unitize the Hofflund-Bakken and the Grinnell-Bakken oil fields as one large unitized unit
  • Petrogulf Corp is one of the 150 working interest owners
  • Petrogulf objected to unitizing the two fields as one unitized unit
  • Petrogulf felt unitizing the two units as one unit would be "unfair" because geology is "so different"
  • NDIC proposed separating the two units; but allow unitizing both -- separately
  • NDIC also recommended changes to the royalty distribution formula that he said would make the plan more equitable (details not provided in the article)
  • NDIC unanimous: the proposal goes forward but as two separate unitized fields: the Hofflund-Bakken unitized field; and the Grinnell-Bakken unitized field
  • the proposal must now be approved by 55% of mineral owners
  • QEP tried unitizing the Helis Grail field years ago; the proposal was defeated 
  • Helis Grail field is not unitized
  • something tells me....
Electric Switches 101

Unfortunately this was filmed in low light. But I had to take advantage of the moment. Sophia did not want this filmed but she agreed to one "take." Earlier, not filmed, was much better, but this will give you an idea of what we are working on.

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- September 28, 2018 -- End-Of-Month Round-Up

WTI: closes solidly above $73. Data points:
  • Iranian sanctions: would remove 1.5 million bopd from global market
  • Saudi Arabia will boost production by 0.5 million bopd in 4Q18
Saudi boost: Saudi Aramco to boost oil capacity by over one-half million bopd in 4Q18 -- link at Reuters

Iran: reported earlier that by November or so, South Korea would no longer be importing Iranian oil. Now it is being reported that China's top refiner will halve Iranian oil imports.

US crude oil production: staggering -- Rystad Energy. Link here.

US crude oil production, July, 2018: just short of 11 million bopd

Chevron: growing volume will support a growing dividend. -- SeekingAlpha.

US natural gas:
  • fill rate well below 5-year average and the gap is not closing
  • New England could face natural gas shortage over next month or so
  • natural gas being diverted from New England to Florida
  • Florida: #1 electricity producer in US; #2, Texas
  • Florida: converting from coal to natural gas

US Shale On Track To Deliver 1.5 Million BOPD Growth In 2018 -- Rystad Energy -- September, 2018

If you have time to read only one article this weekend, this would be the article.

A huge "thank you" to a reader for this link.

There are so many story lines in this article. This is just one of them.

Not only is the rate of growth steepest in the Bakken, but the Bakken leads significantly in 30-day production. This really is quite an interesting chart. Mid-Con: SCOOP/STACK?

I have archived this article. I will come back to it later.

Nine New Permits; WTI Breaks Through $73 -- September 28, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66583270190

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (5); RimRock (4)
  • Fields: Pleasant Valley (Williams); Moccasin Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments: RimRock has permits for a 4-well MC MHA pad in SESW 10-147-93; CLR has permits for a 5-well Weisz pad in SWSE 11-156-95 
I was going to post the graphic of the proposed location for the CLR Weisz pad but there's really nothing to see there, so will do it later, as it begins to fill in.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+46 -- September 28, 2018 -- WTI Over $73

WTI: up almost 2%; up over a dollar; should close solidly above $73.

The market: not going to go through them again; pretty much unchanged from earlier this morning. But that WTI of $73,49 going into the weekend is really, really bullish.

The Dinosaur Page

By the time I reached adulthood I was pretty much convinced that dinosaurs had had their 15 minutes of fame. Like the amphibians (who truly had only 15 minutes of fame), it appeared the dinosaurs were a dead-end branch.

Wow, was I wrong (and almost everyone else).

The dinosaurs, of course, never died out. They live on today as birds.

Not only do dinosaurs live on, but we continue to learn much from them, and much of what we learn can be used elsewhere.

It seems every time I buy the newest book on dinosaurs, it's obsolete almost as soon as it arrives in the mail. This past week we have another example. I just finished reading Steve Brusatte's The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs, c. 2018.

Now, this story: the largest dinosaur of the Jurassic period ever found

By the way, before going any further, it must be noted that the writer of this article made a huge mistake that was discovered only after the article was published. The writer originally said that the newly identified dinosaur was the largest dinosaur ever found. But then I read this from the article, a screenshot.

From the article:
A new study published Thursday in Current Biology reveals that Ledumahadi mafube, a Brontosaurus relative, could have weighed 12 metric tons. That's approximately 26,000 pounds. Its fossils were discovered in South Africa.
A different dinosaur called the Argentinosaurus huinculensis has been previously cited by other scientists as being the largest dinosaur at approximately 80 tons (160,000 pounds), and lived during the Late Cretaceous period around 99.6 million years ago.
So, how does that compute? How can the  Ledumahadi mafube be the biggest dinosaur of all time when it weighed only 26,000 pounds, compared to the Argentinosaurus huinculensis, at 160,000 pounds?

The Ledumahadi mafube was a dwarf compared to the A. huinculensis.

The scientists quickly notified the writer, Bonnie Burton, that the L. mafube was the largest dinosaur in the Jurassic period, but not the largest dinosaur ever.

Not by a long shot.

26,000 pounds vs 160,000 pounds.

This also explains why the link was taken down almost immediately by Matt Drudge when he saw the correction, and that this newly discovered dinosaur was a dwarf compared to its cousin.

By the way, "ledumahadi" translates to "a giant thunderclap at dawn" in the Sesotho language.

Mafube? Mafube Local Municipality is an administrative area in the Fezile Dabi District of the Free State in South Africa. The name is a Sesotho word meaning "dawning of the new day".

US Crude Oil Production, July, 2018: 10.964 Million BOPD

EIA, monthly petroleum numbers, link here. And the number is ... 10.964 million bbls. From a reader, earlier:
JUN (reported 2 months delay) was at 10.674 million bopd.  The peak oilers are predicting 10.55.  I am thinking more like 10.8.  But always interesting to watch (like the NDIC report).
  • Year-to-date, the January - July, 2018, daily average is 10.474 million bopd:
  • July, 2018, daily average: 10.964 million bopd:

Note: had the Bakken produced 36,000 more bopd, the US would have hit 11 million bopd. That represents about 3% of North Dakota's daily production. 

The Ryder Cup, link: the headline is ugly; the details are even uglier, e.g., Mickelson and DeChambeau's "5 and 4" loss. Some of the members of the afternoon US teams: Rickie Fowler (Rocket Mortgage); Phil Mickelson (too many to list); Jordan Spieth (Under Armour).

Going Biking! Good Luck To All -- September 28, 2018

Huge "thank you" for the shout out from Bruin E&P to one of their lessors. Much appreciated.

Go Bruin! Go Slawson!  Good luck to all.

WTI solidly above $73.

A Little Bit of Trivia

Our soccer granddaughter will be participating in City of Las Vegas Mayor's Cup International Youth Soccer Tournament 2018 in October. They will be staying at the NYNY. From wiki:
The US Post Office Statue of Liberty Forever stamp, which was intended to show the actual Statue of Liberty in New York Harbor, actually shows the replica at New York-New York.
This is due to an error by the stamp designers, who incorrectly chose a stock photo of the replica instead of the original and did not recognize the difference.
Even after the error was recognized the Postal Service continued producing the stamp. A Postal Service spokesman said the Service “would have selected this photograph anyway," citing its popularity and the Postal Service's desire to produce a stamp that appeared different from previous stamps depicting the Statue of Liberty.
In 2013 the sculptor of the statue in Las Vegas sued the Postal Service for copyright infringement. His lawyers pointed out that the replica is a distinct piece of art, with intentional variations from the original Statue of Liberty.
In July 2018, a judge ordered the U.S. Postal Service to pay Davidson $3.5 million.

CLR's Antelope Mineral Owners In Elm Tree Had A Huge Christmas In July, 2018

Link here to the wells; production data has been updated.

Checking now, but I bet a lot of wells on IA status have been fracked.

We'll check three:
  • 32358, 33-053-07434; yup, fracked 3/14/2018; 8.3 million gallons of water; 90.4% water by mass;
  • 32360, 33-053-07436, yup, fracked, 3/28/2018; 11. 9 million gallons of water, 87.1% water by mass;
  • 32360, 33-053-07437, yup, fracked, 3/29/2018; 9.4 million gallons of water; 88.7% by mass;
Now look at the production jumps for two of the older wells, and note the cumulative; these are going to be huge wells (they already are):
  • 22820, 1,240, CLR, Antelope 1-23H2, Elm Tree, t12/14; cum 580K 8/18;  off line as of 8/18; an excellent well from the very beginning; huge jump in production, 7/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 22821, 1,299, CLR, Antelope 1-23H, Elm Tree, t12/14; cum 529K 8/18; off line as of 2/18; an excellent well from the very beginning:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+46 -- September 28, 2018 -- WTI Over $73

The market, opening. Wow, after being down 150 points in pre-market trading, the Dow (irrelevant) has turned positive. WTI, flat at the opening, in now up almost a dollar, over 1.23%, and now over $73.

The oils:
  • CVX: up slightly;
  • COP: up a percent;
    RDS-B: back to almost flat; this is the "big"one;
  • NOG: up 2.3%
  • OAS: up 2.8% -- hits another intra-day 52-week high
  • EOG: up almost 1%
  • DNR: up almost a percent
  • EW: up 1.4%
  • Shire: flat
  • WMT: flat, down slightly
  • PLUG: up 1.6%
  • UNP: down 0.3%
  • SRE: recovering nicely, now up 1.2%
Back to the Bakken

Activity updated:

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+46 -- September 28, 2018

The Ryder Cup: wow, after a great start in the first round, the US team is getting trounced in the afternoon go, about the midpoint of the afternoon round. All four US teams being trounced:
  • team 1: EUR up 4
  • team 2: EUR up 2
  • team 3: EUR up 6 -- the US team: Mickelson and DeChambeau; Michelson seems to be the weakest link in the US team
  • team 4: EUR up 3
  • movers and shakers unhappy with something; all major indices down
  • TSLA: down $35; down about 12%; surprising it held
  • AAPL: flat; down slightly
  • RDS-B: down 2%; pays 5.24%
  • other major oil companies not trading yet
Notes to the Granddaughters

On the way home from TutorTime yesterday afternoon, Sophia told me that "ten" is a "one and a zero."

We then discussed "eleven." Wow, she caught on quickly. Last evening she told her mom "ten" was a "one and a zero" and "eleven" was "two ones." And then with her right hand, drew a huge "1" and a huge "zero" in the air. She held up two fingers and called it "eleven."

I didn't really think about it until then, but that's really quite remarkable that the numerals used for ten, eleven, twelve, etc., are not only "representative"/hieroglyphics/emojis but also mathematically correct, if that makes sense. I'm sure somewhere someone explains it better. In base 2, for example, 11 is "three."

"We" wouldn't have had to use "10" to represent ten, but had we not, it would have been problematic, to say the least. The Romans didn't use "I⃞" for "ten." The Romans did not have "zero" as a placeholder and hammer and chisel could not make the oval/round zero we have all come to know and love.

Usually when I start talking about higher math with Sophia, she says, "Can we talk about this later?"

The Lobster Book


Lessons From The Lobster: Eve Marder's Work in Neuroscience, Charlotte Nassim, c. 2018.

From page 17:
A flood of women swept into life science graduate schools in September, 1969. The draft exemption for male PhD students was ending, and far fewer men could take shelter from the Vietnam War in graduate studies. 
The universities were taken by surprise and had to scramble to fill places. Suddenly almost half the intake in the life sciences was female. In 1968, the Biology Department at San Diego had taken two women in a class of thirty. The next year there were thirteen. "There was a giant uproar!" Marder chuckles. ""We, the women, arrived, and they were completely hysterical; they thought civilization as they knew it was over. By the end of that year, everyone had forgotten. There were good students who were women, good students who were men. The next year they accepted fifty-fifty. In two years, entry into virtually every biology program around the country was gender neutral.
My own experience, entering graduate school about that time -- three years later than Marder -- was that that the women were super-smart for the most part. I never understood how some of the white males were accepted; the family must have been alumni/huge donors. But, across the board, the affirmative action programs were a disaster. That was my perception; I'm probably wrong. Anecdotal.

Allen Selverston's lab: crayfish model; switched to Homanus americanus, the American lobster.

The archetype of large amenable neurons, with an easily visible axon called "the giant axon," was the one that triggers the squid's escape response. That was the model for the trailblazing, Nobel prize-winning work by Hodgkin and Huxley in the 1940s. So candidate animals included sea hares, sea slugs, and various crustaceans such as lobsters.

I don't know if  I had heard of sea hares until now.

From page 19:
In the late 1960s, Don Maynard has astutely recognized the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion as particularly promising because it was an independent neuronal network with a countable number of neurons, an apparently simple single input nerve, and an output to accessible stomach muscles. Maynard  introduced this preparation to other neuroscientists, including the three pioneers, Allen Selverston, Dan Hartline, and Maurice Moulins, who were to become what you might all the founding fathers of stomatogastric ganglion studies.

Friday, September 28, 2018

Bike ride into Starbucks: the day was rated a 10. Rating starts at 10 and then, in half-point increments, points are taken for precipitation/humidity; wind; temperature. Got in before sunrise. 60 degrees! Perfect biking weather as long as there is no wind -- and there was none. 

Starbucks: busier than ever this Friday morning. 

Northeast gas to Florida: most interesting story; part 2, see below; tie this story with the Algonquin story yesterday.

California gasoline: headed for $4/gallon. Gasoline tax increase went into effect; Governor Moonbeam prefers Saudi / OPEC oil rather than less expensive WTI.

Crude oil "monthlies": pending.

The Ryder Cup: wow! huge! US: 3 ---- EUR: 1
  • the US needs 14 points to retain the Cup
  • the EUR needs 14.5 points to capture the Cup
  • in first round, EUR's Molinari/Fleetwood trounch US' Woods and Reed
Letter to Senator Heitkamp mailed.

Back to the Bakken

Two wells coming off confidential list today: -- Friday, September 28, 2018 
  • 34167, SI/NC, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-2, Truax, no production data, 
  • 34609, 1,985, Newfield, Orvis State 150-99-21-16-5H, South Tobacco Garden, 62 stages; 7.2 million bbls, t7/18; cum 46K one month;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Active rigs:

Active Rigs65583270190

RBN Energy: northeast gas pulled south to Florida power plants and Sabal Trail, part 2.
Florida’s electric utilities are turning to natural gas-fired power and renewables for all their incremental generation needs and as replacements for the older coal units they’ve been retiring. The state’s big bet on natural gas has been spurring the development of new pipelines. And, because of big shifts in where gas is being produced and where it’s flowing, the Sunshine State will soon be receiving an increasing share of its gas needs from the Marcellus region. Today, we discuss the slew of new gas-fired power plants that have come online, the additional plants planned, and gas flows on Sabal Trail, the first new gas mainline into the state in almost two decades.

With more than a year of Sabal Trail operational history in the books and Florida’s seasonal weather as hot and humid as modern man and woman can bear, we decided it was time for an update. Florida is a leading generator of electricity — second only to Texas, in fact — and in recent years its electric utilities have been particularly aggressive in their shift from coal (and nuclear) generation to gas.
That spurred the development of the 1.1-Bcf/d Sabal Trail Pipeline, which runs more than 500 miles from an interconnect with Williams’s Transcontinental Gas Pipeline (Transco) in west-central Alabama to the Orlando-area gas hub (black dot in. A related pipeline called Florida Southeast Connection delivers gas from that hub into South Florida. Sabal Trail — in service since May 2017 — increased to three the number of gas mainlines serving the state, the other two being the 3.1-Bcf/d Florida Gas Transmission and the 1.3-Bcf/d Gulfstream Natural Gas System.