The Penguins Are Back! -- March 2, 2018 -- So Much For All The Global Warming Hand-Wringing -- Look At The Huge Jump In Penguins

This is kind of interesting. The WSJ has a story on penguins today. It turns out The WSJ had an almost identical story on the same penguins four years ago. The Adélie penguins must be loving the weather or the climate change or the global warming. By the way, the Antarctic sea ice is at record levels. The Arctic, in terms of sea ice, is a drop in the bucket compared to the Antarctic sea ice.

The two links:

• today: The secret is out: Scientists spot penguin 'super-colony' in Antarctica. Researchers discover Adélie penguins are thriving despite weather patterns and other concerns
• four years ago: Adélie penguin census shows seabirds are thriving. The penguins are  considered a bellwether of climate change, the Antarctic seabird's population is generally on the rise

From today's linked story:

On the Danger Islands of Antarctica, researchers have discovered one of the world’s largest colonies of Adélie penguins, harboring more than a million birds of a species long thought to be succumbing to changing weather patterns and dwindling food supplies.

The Adélies are dressed by nature in formal black and white. Their eyes are rimmed by distinctive white rings that resemble spectacles. And in recent decades, their fortunes have shifted with long-term changes in the annual ice conditions on which they depend, with eight or more colonies along the Antarctic Peninsula vanishing.

For that reason, the discovery of such a large new colony surprised some scientists.
On Friday, [researchers] published their formal count in the journal Scientific Reports: The remote rocky islands were home to a “super-colony” of 751,527 breeding pairs of Adélie penguins—the largest colony in the entire Antarctic Peninsula.

From the linked article of four years ago:

For the first time, researchers have counted all the world's Adélie penguins—a sprightly seabird considered a bellwether of climate change—and discovered that millions of them are thriving in and around Antarctica.

Rather than declining as feared due to warming temperatures that altered their habitats in some areas, the Adélie population generally is on the rise, the scientists said Thursday.

The Adélie penguin population now numbers 3.79 million breeding pairs—about 1.1 million more pairs than 20 years ago.

In all, they identified 251 penguin colonies and surveyed 41 of them for the first time, including 17 apparently new colonies.

Wildlife biologists pay close attention to Adélie penguins because their well-being is tied to annual sea ice conditions and temperature trends. They nest in groups on exposed rock but have to walk to the ice edge to feed in open water.

While annual sea ice in the Arctic has declined dramatically in recent years, the seasonal sea ice around the mainland of Antarctica has reached record levels. The 800-mile-long Antarctic Peninsula, which reaches above the Antarctic Circle toward South America, is relatively mild compared with the mainland. Temperatures there have risen about 2.8 degrees C in the past 50 years, records show.

Another story we won't see in the National Geographic. That's too bad. In the old days, this would have resulted in a huge photo-essay and no political agenda. If this story does make the National Geographic, the emphasis will be on global warming. I can already see how the story will be spun.

Patrick Kennedy: Our Grandchildren Will Never See Snow Again -- Never Mind -- January 5, 2018; It Was Never This Cold When Obama Was President

With all this hysteria about Winter Storm Grayson, is it just me or do others also realize, "hey, this is winter. It happens fairly regularly."?

And to think Patrick Kennedy, of the famous Kennedy clan, was worried that "our" grandchildren would never see snow again.

It's hard to believe but as recently as January 27, 2016, Colin Barras, for the BBC, was asking, "will snow become a thing of the past as the climate warms?"  He was writing that even as

New York and Washington, DC have just been smothered by another massive snowstorm, which seems strange when you remember that the world is getting hotter.

From a post a couple of years ago:

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Global Warming 2014 - 2015

The unnamed 2014 autumn polar vortex: the headlines started appearing November 11, 2014:

• Minnesota shatters snow record from 1898 -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow 
• Arctic blasts pummels USA -- unexplained; stuff happens 
• Only six (6) states not expecting snow in coming week (and one of them may be Hawaii) 
• Winter still a month away 
• Twelve (12) years since Dallas has had two consecutive days so cold  
• Wyoming wind chill warning: 35 below  
• Central Ontario snowfall could reach 20 inches  
• Cold to freeze East  
• Shattering snowfall records in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow 
• All 50 states brace for freezing temperatures -- November 13, 2014 
• Cold freeze moves east -- November 13, 2014 
• Denver cold shatters two records, including low temp record set in 1882 -- November 13, 2014 
• Coldest November in decades -- November 14, 2014 
• Michigan town receives one month's snow -- in one day --November 14, 2014 
• Storm dumps four (4) feet of snow on Wisconsin town -- November 14, 2014 
• Ice on Lake Superior -- almost a month early -- November 16, 2014 
• Harsh cold to set records in south, freeze northeast -- November 16, 2014
• Snow on the ground in DFW area; 27 degrees -- November 17, 2014 
• 50% of nation covered in snow -- November 17, 2014 (this was on ABC Nightly News, also)
• Most snow this early in a decade -- November 17, 2014
• Four (4) feet of snow expected in upstate New York -- November 17, 2014
• Record cold in Boise, Idaha, Monday morning, possibly again Tuesday -- November 17, 2014
• Deep freeze blankets USA -- November 18, 2014
• Coldest November morning since 1976 -- November 18, 2014
• 1,360 records shattered in one week -- November 18, 2014
• "Global warming" activists huddle together together in Capitol -- November 18, 2014
• I-90 closed in Buffalo, NY; snow -- November 18, 2014
• Buffalo, upper NY state gets slammed -- November 18, 2014
• 74 inches of snow predicted overnight in Buffalo, NY -- November 18, 2014 
• Cuoma deploys organized militia (National Guard) -- November 18, 2014

Off The Net For Awhile

Tweeting right now:

• California State Assembly votes 46 to 30 to approve legislation ending vaccine exemptions for personal or religious beliefs in public schools - @SovernNation [FINALLY]
• Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner vetoes state budget legislation, cites $4 billion deficit - @AP [Hell froze over]
• Iran and Cuba identified as serial human rights abusers in State Department's annual human rights report - @AP [The president did not get the memo; will not read the report; released when SecState was flying back home with a broken hip]

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So Much For Global Warming

Now, It's Regional

IceAgeNow is reporting:

"Scientists" admit we may be headed into a Little Ice Age, but keep on blathering about “global warming." They dismiss their findings by saying the ice age will merely be “regional” (as if full-fledged ice ages aren’t also “regional.”)

A rapid decline in the Sun’s activity is making it increasingly likely that the world is headed into a “grand solar minimum,” says a spokesman for the British Met Office. The last grand solar minimum – the Maunder Minimum – is thought to have contributed to what is known as the “Little Ice Age” during the 17th and 18th Centuries.

The Maunder Minimum was a time of almost no sunspots from 1645-1715. It was a time of cooler winters in eastern North America and Europe when the Thames froze so solidly that horse-driven carriages were able to cross the river on the ice.

There is about a one-in-five chance of the Sun entering the same kind of cooling phase within the next 40 years, a new study shows.

“During the Maunder Minimum period there were runs of cold winters including 1684 which was the coldest winter recorded,” says Met Office long-range expert professor Adam Scaife. In fact, “there are signs that solar activity has been dropping over the past decade.”

More at the link. Suffice it to say, it appears "global warming" is getting old. Now, the scientists are moving on to a "mini ice age." 


The comments by these two men do not tell the whole story, and some comments are clearly opinion and not fact. The best way to watch this video is with the sound off. LOL:

And So It Goes -- June 12, 2015

Predicted by ABC News, home of the #1 nightly news show with David Muir.

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Breaking News

Ethiopia will cut carbon emissions by two-thirds by 2030. Really? This is news. From AFP:

Ethiopia has set targets to slash carbon emissions by two-thirds within the next 15 years, the most ambitious goal so far presented to an upcoming UN climate change conference in Paris. 

LOL. Ethiopia could cut its carbon emissions by two-thirds if it quit sending a) negotiators to Paris; and, b) marathon runners to Boston.

Population of Ethiopia: 100 million.

Ethiopia's major source of CO2 emissions, burning a) camel dung; b) trees. By 2030 the country will be completely deforested and that will account for at least a third of the reduction. Another third will be achieved by creative accounting.

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What ABC Said In 2008 That We Would See In 2015

The Science Is Settled

From the linked ABC article above, in 2015, due to global warming:

As one expert warns that in 2015 the sea level will rise quickly, a visual shows New York City being engulfed by water. The video montage includes another unidentified person predicting that "flames cover hundreds of miles." 

Ultimately, ABC delayed the air-date for Earth 2100 and the one-hour show didn't debut until June 2, 2009. The program showcased the terrible impact of global warming from 2015 through 2100. 

In the special, a "storm of the century" wiped out Miami. Other highlights included a destroyed New York City and an abandoned Las Vegas. By 2084, Earth's population will apparently be just 2.7 billion.

In 2015: One carton of milk is $12.99. In 2015: Gas is over $9 a gallon.

The only thing they missed was the minimum wage being raised to $15 / hour.

Colder Winters Resulting In Declining Numbers Of Monarch Butterflies -- June 7, 2015

This is an interesting article about the monarch butterfly. Its decreasing numbers is very, very well known and was the subject of a Fargo, ND, story last year, in which the declining number of monarch butterflies was blamed on loss of forest in Mexican mountains and .... drum roll ... cooler winters in the US:

Local experts say colder winters in the US and illegal logging of Mexico's forest are bringing drastic change to the Monarch population.

One year later, one of the two problems is resolved. There is no longer any shortage of Mexican forest. But the winters remain ... well, cold, though the folks in Washington can't bring themselves to acknowledge that, so it becomes the old stand-by, "We really don't know. Maybe it's pesticides." The StarTribune is reporting:

Scientists have cited a number of reasons for the decline. For a time, logging in and around Mexico’s mountain forests deprived them of critical winter protection, but that’s been largely stopped. Now their numbers are so low that there’s room to spare in the mountains.

So, using simple elimination from last year's WDAY article out of Fargo, it's the cooler climate.

But, gosh, that doesn't fit the Bill Maher school of common sense, so it must be something else. Let's go with milkweed.

And let's plant lots of it, from Dallas to Detroit. 

Whatever.

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Not A Pretty Picture

Not a good day for Phil Mickelson either (see graphic above -- yes, he is in the bottom five.

Happy Birthday, Olivia -- June 6, 2015

Her birthday is later this summer, but in order to see her friends before they all scatter this summer, Olivia had her second annual rock climbing birthday party. Olivia will be eight years old this summer.

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For The Archives

There are no active rigs in Montana at the moment. The Billings Gazette is reporting. Both coal industry and wind industry are fading in Montana (The Billings Gazette, June 12, 2015). The tax credit for wind was renewed for one month in 2014, but not yet in 2015.

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Late Spring

Yesterday, after reports of potential flooding in the Williston (Bakken) area due to the recent snow pack melt off, I suggested that this seems like a late spring. How incredibly prescient. NewsMax is reporting:

Don't talk about global warming to residents of Nuuk, Greenland's capital city, where record cold is keeping the city still buried in snow, climate change skeptic Steven Goddard writes.

Normally by this date, around 20 percent of Greenland is melting.

"This year the area of melt is less than 2 percent – the latest start to a melt season on record," he writes, noting: "Temperatures have plummeted over the past decade."

Northeast Greenland also saw its coldest May on record since measurements started back in 1949, while the island as a whole is colder than normal, the Daily Caller reports, citing Danish Meteorological Institute data. [Which is a much more credible source than NOAA now that the US agency was found to be fudging their data.]

"Greenland has gained half a trillion tons of snow and ice since September," Goddard writes.

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To Tee Off First, Sunday

Alone

Assuming He Shows Up

The AP is reporting:

Tiger Woods hit a new low with a career high.

Right when it looked as though Woods was slowly making some semblance of progress, he posted an 85 on Saturday at the Memorial for the worst score of his career. It was three shots higher than the 82 he shot in the second round of the Phoenix Open in January, which led to him taking a two-month break from competition until he could get his game in order.

Woods ended his front nine with back-to-back double bogeys for a 42. Needing a par on the 18th hole to avoid his worst score, he hooked his tee shot into the water, flubbed two chips from short of the green and took a quadruple-bogey 8.

It was his third round in the 80s as a pro.

Woods, who had to make a 6-foot par putt on the final hole Friday just to make the cut, declined interview requests, walking out the door to sign a few autographs. About 20 minutes later, his coach and caddie were sitting at a curb waiting for a van to come by to get them.

He was in last place, meaning he would play as a single Sunday for the first time in his career.

I did not know that this was the "punishment" for being in last place going into the final round of PGA tournament. One learns something new (or old) every day.  

Idle Chatter -- June 5, 2015

Reuters at Rigzone has a nice article on Saudi and pricing. Note the 7th paragraph:

Some analysts warn that the recent price crash - which has reignited demand and slammed the brakes on much global investment - may be sowing the seeds of another supply squeeze as early as next year.

The second (internet) page of the article gets even more interesting. Folks much smarter than I have talked about this for at least a year, the implications of the following data points:

Saudi Arabia launched a $35 billion five-year exploration and production investment plan in 2012 meant to sustain its current capacity. While the number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen by more than half since last year due to low prices, those drilling in the Middle East have risen to near the highest in records going back to 1975, according to Baker Hughes data. More than 400 rigs are operating in the region, a more than 10 percent rise from 2013, with just over half of those in Saudi Arabia.

Note: the $35 billion five-year program announced in 2012 was meant to sustain its current capacity. 

So, with a $35 billion five-year exploration and production program which began in 2012, almost four years ago, and with a 10% rise in active rigs year-over-year, what has it gotten Saudi Arabia?

It looks like that $35 billion program is working: sustaining current production. 

It's a bit hard to read: the Saudi Arabia "line" moves up slightly, very slightly, 2008 through 2014. But note that the bar graph is boe (both crude oil and natural gas). Also, remember, Saudi Arabia's domestic crude oil requirements have also increased significantly since 2008. Saudi Arabia is now engaged in what will be a long and lengthy civil war (or war on terrorism, if you prefer). So, a $35 billion five-year exploration / production program AND with more than 400 rigs active in the region, hasn't resulted in a production line like the US "blue" line.

The tea leaves suggest "we" are being set up for $200 oil.

What if the writers at Reuters are correct, suggesting a supply squeeze as early as next year? Is anything else going on next year? Oh, that's right. A presidential campaign with one side known for a desire to kill the US oil and gas industry and the other side often accused of thinking no farther (or deeper) than "drill, baby, drill."

We live in very interesting times.

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The JV Team Advances

Tweeting now:  Islamic State seizes another town in Libya - @Reuters

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Huge Background Story If Anyone Is Interested

From Seeking Alpha:

• ConocoPhillips says it is quitting shale gas exploration in Poland after failing to reach production-level flows from its gas wells located in the northern part of the country.
• COP was the last major oil company looking for shale gas in Poland, after Chevron's withdrawal at the start of this year; it says it invested ~$220M in Poland since 2009.
• Poland imports ~60% of its gas from Russia and had hoped domestic shale gas production would allow it to break its dependence.

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Hotter Than Ever; Atmospheric CO2 > 400 PPM

More Sea Ice Than Ever

So It Goes

NOAA says "anthropogenic global warming" is back on track, warmer than ever, and the Antarctic Sea ice sets a new record for the month of May. Even in the Arctic, more ice than in the cooler years of 2004 and 2006.

April, 2015, atmospheric CO2: 403.

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Before He Approves The Keystone

I can imagine the president will declassify this report before he gets around to reviewing the Keystone XL North pipeline application. In case the link breaks, the linked article is from The [London] Telegraph about the secret report that Saudi Arabia financed "9/11." The pages in question were redacted by friends of the king (FOK).

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This Is Not An Investment Site

The old adage, "sell in May, go away" seems to be back in play.

Graphing The Bakken Phenomenon; NOAA Fudges The Data -- June 4, 2015

I find these two graphs fascinating. The first graph is the amount of crude oil stores in the US (not including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). The Bakken boom began in 2007; the Eagle Ford came along a bit later; the Permian, one time a declining, aging field, came along even later. So, the US is puttering along, but then, look at that spike that occurred at the end of 2014 and in early 2015. The increase between 2007 and 2014 was subtle, not much more than background noise, and then suddenly, in November, 2014, and continuing until March, 2015, an unprecedented spike:

The second graph is the number of days of US crude oil supply, jumping from 22 days to 29 days, almost an entire full week of additional supply. Again, what is most fascinating is the sudden jump noted in the oval, occurring seven years after the North Dakota Bakken boom began:

You can see the first graph without the annotations at this link.

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Apple Page

Apple retains its ranking at #5 based on revenues. Macrumors is reporting:

Fortune has released its annual Fortune 500 list of the top U.S. corporations based on gross revenue, which together accounted for $12.5 trillion in revenues, $945 billion in profits and $17 trillion in market value. Apple maintained the 5th spot in the rankings for the second consecutive year after steadily rising from 6th place in 2013, 17th place in 2012, 35th place in 2011 and 56th place in 2010. 

Walmart, Exxon, Chevron, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple. 

Apple recorded operating revenue of $182.79 billion during the 2014 fiscal year, a 7% year-over-year increase. Walmart, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Berkshire Hathaway topped the list with between $194.6 and $485.6 billion revenue, although it's worth noting that Apple finished ahead of all four of those companies with $39.5 billion in profit and recently posted two record-breaking quarters.

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Global Warming

Wow, talk about incredible. A US government agency "fixing" the data. The Daily Caller is reporting:All that work and we're talking 0.012 degrees.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists have found a solution to the 15-year “pause” in global warming: They “adjusted” the hiatus in warming out of the temperature record.

New climate data by NOAA scientists doubles the warming trend since the late 1990s by adjusting pre-hiatus temperatures downward and inflating temperatures in more recent years. “Newly corrected and updated global surface temperature data from NOAA’s [National Centers for Environmental Information] do not support the notion of a global warming ‘hiatus,'” wrote NOAA scientists in their study presenting newly adjusted climate data.

To increase the rate in warming, NOAA scientists put more weight on certain ocean buoy arrays, adjusted ship-based temperature readings upward, and slightly raised land-based temperatures as well.

Scientists said adjusted ship-based temperature data “had the largest impact on trends for the 2000-2014 time period, accounting for 0.030°C of the 0.064°C trend difference.” They added that the “buoy offset correction contributed 0.014°C… to the difference, and the additional weight given to the buoys because of their greater accuracy contributed 0.012°C.”

We used to to the same thing in college biology and chemistry when our experimental results did not meet our expectations -- it was called a fudge factor. It's quite incredible the NOAA would do this. If the original data had fit their story, would they have gone back and re-jiggered the data. If they had and the re-jiggered data did not fit their story, would they have published the study. LOL.

0.03 degrees; 0.064 degrees; and, then, the 0.012 degrees. Not reproducible. Not by a long shot. Nor statistically significant. Anthropogenic global warming is a cult or a religion; it is not science.

Regular readers can see through this. First, of all, this is all relative. If they're going to change data from sites in 2014, they need to change data from sites going all the way back to 1 million BC; probably not doing to happen.

What I find most comical: the researchers got exactly the number they were looking for. If one knows what "number" one wants, it's not all that difficult to change the data until the number comes out exactly as "predicted." This study will be met with derision, except by Bill Nye, the science guy. And Neil DeGrasse Tyson, the First. 

Boston: Record Cold High Temperature, 49 Degrees, Monday, June 1, 2015 -- Broke Previous Record Of 53 Degrees Set In 1992

National Weather Service is reporting:

RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET IN BOSTON TODAY…

THE HIGH OF 49 DEGREES TODAY AT LOGAN AIRPORT IN BOSTON SET A RECORD FOR THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON JUNE 1…

BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 53 DEGREES SET IN 1992.

IT IS ALSO ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN BOSTON THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON ANY DAY IN JUNE WAS BELOW 50 DEGREES. THE OTHER TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS ON JUNE 5 1945…WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 49 DEGREES.

1992: that was about the last year that there was any evidence of global warming; ever since there has been no evidence of warming. 

Staggering -- If You Think About It -- May 28, 2015

From RBN Energy today, a most remarkable blog. One can talk all day about solar and wind energy, but when it comes down to reality, in global energy, it's all about coal and natural gas. Today's RBN Energy post is about LNG exports to Asia. Maybe some day they will find huge natural gas reserves in Asia, but apparently not there yet.

From RBN Energy today:

Asian consumers of liquefied natural gas hope to use the current supply glut—and the start-up of U.S. LNG export facilities--to their long-term advantage. Their very understandable goal is to up-end the old market structure, which for years has had them paying far more for LNG than their Western European counterparts. How will the coming revolution affect U.S. natural gas producers and the next round of U.S. LNG export projects? Today, we continue our review of the fast-changing global market for LNG with a look at a new set of Asian LNG buyers and at the region’s fast-changing supply/demand dynamics.

Most of Asia has experienced significant economic growth in the first 15 years of the 21^st century—not just powerhouses like China and India but smaller, more mature economies like South Korea’s, Taiwan’s and Singapore’s, and still-developing nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam. In most places that growth is being fueled in large part by energy from natural gas, and that trend is very likely to continue, especially if (as seems probable) gas prices remain competitive with oil and coal. Asia’s gas reserves are spotty, though, forcing many countries (Japan, Korea, China and India among them) to turn to LNG imports and—if possible—gas delivered by pipeline.

As we said in Episode 1 of our series, the market for LNG has evolved gradually over the last 50-odd years, but it remains dominated by long-term LNG supply deals. At first LNG prices were fixed, but starting with the OPEC oil crisis in 1973-74, oil and LNG prices were linked, with the goal of mitigating risks for buyers and sellers.

In Episode 2, we ran through five major catalysts shaking up the LNG trade:

1) New LNG capacity coming online, mostly in Australia and the U.S.;

2) Fixed liquefaction tolling agreements being offered by U.S. LNG developers and natural gas costs tied to price index percentages (typically 115%) of the U.S. Henry Hub, LA benchmark;

3) The collapse in oil prices and the resulting drop in oil-indexed LNG prices;

4) The roll-off of long-term LNG supply deals and the increasing share of LNG capacity available to the spot market; and

5) The recent slump in Asian LNG demand-and prices--that have occasionally  made Western Europe a more attractive market for spot LNG sales.

In Episode 3, we looked at existing and future demand in China and India, which are expected to be the world’s biggest LNG growth markets—along with the use of LNG as a ship bunker fuel.

And in Episode 4, we considered Japan and Korea, by far the world’s largest LNG consumers, and (with China and India) the driving forces behind reshaping the Asian market.

In RBN Energy's next episode, RBN Energy will look at why the Asian and European sub-markets for LNG have been so different, and at whether there’s a chance that, with lots of new LNG capacity coming online, those sub-markets might finally start to look more alike. RBN Energy will also consider Asian LNG-buying alliances and the potential for an Asian LNG hub—two things that could help keep a lid on LNG prices in the region.

Population:

• China: 1.357 billion (10x Japan; 27x Korea)
• India: 1.252 billion 
• Japan: 127 million
• South Korea: 50 million

And everyone in China and India wants to have the lifestyle of the Japanese and/or the South Koreans.

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Apple Page

Apple, also, has some exciting news today. Apple announced a new retail store to open on Saturday, June 13 in Upper East Side, Manhattan, NYC. 

The comments were interesting: mostly a complaint that there were not enough Apple retail stores in NYC. As hard as it is to believe, there is no Apple retail store near Wall Street. Apple must have a very, very interesting algorithm when determining when/where to open a new retail store.

This is only Apple's seventh store in NYC, and apparently some New York boroughs still have no Apple stores.

Apple overnight added signage to its upcoming retail location in the Upper East Side of Manhattan that confirms the store will open on June 13. The new store will be located at 940 Madison Avenue, on the corner of 74th Street, and remains under construction ahead of opening. The new store will be Apple's seventh retail location in New York City alongside Fifth Avenue, Grand Central, SoHo, Upper West Side, West 14th Street and Staten Island stores.

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Wow, Will This Year's Global Warming Ever Quit?

Caribou, Maine, Reporting Record Snowfall Today

Ice Age Now is reporting: 

Not much, but it’s still a record.

“The 0.3″ of snow observed at Caribou yesterday was the greatest snowfall on record so late in the season,” says National Weather Service Tweet.

“Old record 0.2″ on 5/25/74.

Friday; A Cold Day Across The Nation; Earthquakes In England, California; Gasoline Is Cheap This Year -- EIA -- May 22, 2015

Earthquake hits Kent, England. Residents stoic, saying they will re-build. Near the white cliffs of Dover. No reports of any part of England falling into the sea.

Accuweather is reporting a "freeze day" across the northeast. [Based on Merkel's comments out of Germany in the past 24 hours, my hunch is that Greece is feeling the chill also.] This is almost June, isnt' it? Memo to self: the globalwarming2014_2015 tag "goes away" as of June 30th. Then, the globalwarming2015_2016 tag begins. Antarctic sea ice has not been receding. Rising oceans remain the Coast Guard's biggest concern, according to the president.

After the initial surge, it is estimated that Apple will sell 30,000 watches/day. Assuming there's a $100 mark-up average, that's $3,000,000 / day. I pulled the $100 figure out of thin air.

Speaking of "thin air," that phrase was coined by Shakespeare. I mention that because yesterday, while reading a review of Lana Del Rey in an English tabloid, Shakespeare was cited. The writer was spot on; comment from the readers suggested there are still some folks who think William wrote all those plays and sonnets.

For those interested in honeybees and honey, look for a copy of The Rooftop Beekeeper: A Scrappy Guide to Keeping Urban Honeybees, Megan Paska, c. 2014. After perusing this book, all I can say is there should be at least one apiary class taught in each elementary school in Williston. 

This is not an investment site. Investors need to stay away from this site. No one should make any financial or investment decisions based on what one reads in this blog or thinks they may have read in this blog. The webmaster has no formal training and no background in the oil and gas industry and even less experience in the world of high finance. I do understand the concept of double-entry bookkeeping though I doubt I could do it if I had to. Having said all that, there are two interesting posts from two different sites today regarding energy. One is from Merrill Lynch. The other is from 24/7 Wall Street.  I don't know if I can find the 24/7 Wall Street article; I read it on my iPad early this morning while lying in bed waiting for breakfast to be delivered. It wasn't. LOL. Anyway, from Merrill Lynch, at a Seeking Alpha site:

• BofA Merrill Lynch has become more optimistic on the energy sector, on both a small and large cap basis, citing attractive valuations, a performance that has lagged behind the rebound in oil prices, and analysts beginning to revise earnings expectations higher.
• Savita Subramanian and her analyst team remain biased toward the “big, old and ugly” energy stocks - the mega-cap leaders which have shown long-term staying power and that typically pay outstanding dividends.

Oh, my mistake. The 24/7 Wall Street article was simply pinging off the Merrill Lynch story. Disregard.

Something tells me the "secret" Obama trade bill is going to be great for investors: Orrin Hatch is in favor of the bill as are most of the members of his party, and Pocahontas is against the bill. That speaks volumes. I think, like Joe Biden would say, this is a big, freaking, deal. Very freaky.

Zeits on Marathon: Seeking Alpha link here. Marathon:

• selling non-core assets: Africa, and probably Iraqi assets
• divested its Norway business last year
• closed positions in Angola last year
• back in 2012, agreed to sell its Alaska Cook inlet asset
• relinquished licenses in Indonesia
• sold two of its blocks in Kurdistan
• is attempting to see UK North Sea assets
• in discussions to sell interest in Athabasca Oil Sans Project in Alberta

So, what's left? Growing its US shale with primary focus on the Eagle Ford.

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Active rigs:

	5/22/2015	05/22/2014	05/22/2013	05/22/2012	05/22/2011
Active Rigs	82	189	185	213	179

RBN Energy: the impact of shale oil on America's refiners.

First a look at where U.S. refiners source their crude supplies. A chart at the link shows the three sources of U.S. crude supply – domestic production, imports, and inventory draw for the period since January 2011 according to monthly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). 

The big story in U.S. crude supply over the past 4 years has been the transition from imports providing the majority of supplies (63% in January 2011- 9.2 MMb/d) to providing just 44% of supplies today (7.1 MMb/d in February 2015).

That reduction in imports came about because of the increase in U.S. domestic production – primarily from the three major shale basins – the Williston in North Dakota, and the Eagle Ford and the Permian in Texas.

Total U.S. production jumped 67% from 5.5 MMb/d in January 2011 to 9.2 MMb/d in February 2015 – increasing its share of crude supply over the period from 37% to 57%. That dramatic rate of increase in production has now slowed to a crawl at best as the price crash has led producers to reduce budgets and cut back new drilling.

However while the slow down impacts the rate of increase in production, the overall average production in 2015 is  expected to remain at least as high as it was in 2014 – keeping the balance of supplies in favor of domestic crude over imports.

EIA's "energy cookie":

On May 18, the U.S. average retail price for gasoline was $2.74 per gallon ($/gal), or 92¢ per gallon (¢/gal) lower than at the same time last year. This is the lowest average price heading into the Memorial Day weekend—the traditional start of the summer driving season—since 2009. Lower gasoline prices reflect lower crude oil prices, with the spot price of North Sea Brent crude oil at more than $45 per barrel ($/b) lower than the same time last year, despite having increased more than $10/b since the beginning of February. --- EIA

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ObamaCare

This was predicted from the beginning. The blog wrote this story three years ago. ObamaCare, written by the big insurers, was sure to drive out competition, leaving one or two BIG players in each region. No competition? Higher premiums.  Today, The Wall Street Journal is reporting some huge premium increases for 2016 (and folks wonder why the economy continues to sputter):

Major insurers in some states are proposing hefty rate boosts for plans sold under the federal health law, setting the stage for an intense debate this summer over the law’s impact.

In New Mexico, market leader Health Care Service Corp. is asking for an average jump of 51.6% in premiums for 2016. The biggest insurer in Tennessee, BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, has requested an average 36.3% increase. In Maryland, market leader CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield wants to raise rates 30.4% across its products. Moda Health, the largest insurer on the Oregon health exchange, seeks an average boost of around 25%.

All of them cite high medical costs incurred by people newly enrolled under the Affordable Care Act.

It is what it is. 

For investors, great news. This is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions or financial decisions based on what you read here. The ObamaCare premiums will flow to the bottom line -- and folks will still hesitate getting their medical care because the co-pays and deductibles are unaffordable. Remember: ObamaCare is essentially very expensive catastrophic health care insurance with birth control thrown in for free.

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Fracking In California? Las Vegas?

Two earthquakes being reported in California in last 24 hours: 4.1 north of Napa County and 3.3 near Paso Robles. Late afternoon, Friday, 5.4 magnitude in Las Vegas. [Las Vegas quake later revised to 4.8.]

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Off The Net For Awhile

And with that, I'm off for awhile. I will do some biking (jacket weather; it's going to be cold in the DFW area today) and then catch up with our 10-month-old granddaughter for a luncheon date at the French pastry restaurant on Main Street, Grapevine, TX.

Nooners; Polar Ice Not Receding As Once Thought -- NASA -- May 20, 2015

The "original" drop dead date was April 9, 2015.

Then it was April 24, 2015.

Then April 30, 2015. 

Then sometime in May.

Then, BloombergBusiness reported that the drop dead date now extends to June 30, 2015.

The Greeks reiterate: they will default by "the end of June, 2015, if not "given" more funds. Now it's Reuters carrying the story.

Meanwhle the S&P hit an intraday high; NASDAQ briefly tops closing high.

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Antarctic Sea Ice ... Expanding?

Forbes is reporting: polar ice not receding as once thought -- NASA --

Updated data from NASA satellite instruments reveal the Earth’s polar ice caps have not receded at all since the satellite instruments began measuring the ice caps in 1979. Since the end of 2012, moreover, total polar ice extent has largely remained above the post-1979 average. The updated data contradict one of the most frequently asserted global warming claims – that global warming is causing the polar ice caps to recede.

The timing of the 1979 NASA satellite instrument launch could not have been better for global warming alarmists. The late 1970s marked the end of a 30-year cooling trend. As a result, the polar ice caps were quite likely more extensive than they had been since at least the 1920s. Nevertheless, this abnormally extensive 1979 polar ice extent would appear to be the “normal” baseline when comparing post-1979 polar ice extent.

Updated NASA satellite data show the polar ice caps remained at approximately their 1979 extent until the middle of the last decade. Beginning in 2005, however, polar ice modestly receded for several years. By 2012, polar sea ice had receded by approximately 10 percent from 1979 measurements. (Total polar ice area – factoring in both sea and land ice – had receded by much less than 10 percent, but alarmists focused on the sea ice loss as “proof” of a global warming crisis.)

I may post this as a stand-alone later -- this is a pretty big deal. It won't be taught in the elementary, middle, or high schools in this country.

Neither Bill Guy, "the science guy," nor the Carl Sagan protege, Neil "deGrasse" Tyson will report this new NASA data.

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Also From Forbes: OXY

For investors looking for dividend-paying stocks, Forbes suggests investors look at OXY as one of ten opportunities:

Houston-based Occidental Petroleum is the largest oil and gas producer in the Permian Basin of western Texas. It also operates domestically in Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, North Dakota and Oklahoma. Internationally it’s all over the world, including Bahrain, Bolivia, Colombia, Iraq, Libya, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Earlier this month, it spun off its California assets as California Resources (CRC), and it still owns 71% of the company.

Occidental pays out a dividend of $0.75 per share every quarter, an amount that is up $0.03 from earlier this year. The $3.00 annual dividend is amply covered by $11.51 per share in cash from operations over the past 12 months.

Even though it has shifted to a pure exploration and production company instead of one that ran substantial refining and marketing operations, the discounts relative to history suggest value. As a ratio of enterprise value to trailing 12 months of EBITDA, Occidental trades 25% more cheaply than it has on average over the past five years.

I post this not as an investment story but as a reminder that OXY is the largest operator in the Permian, the largest shale play in the US. Whiting is probably the largest operator in the Bakken (could be CLR depending how one measures the data). Is EOG the largest in the Eagle Ford?

Williston, Heart Of The Bakken, Ties A Previous Record -- Ties Record Set In 1933 For Record Low -- May 18, 2015

Talk about mixed emotions.

Regular readers know my thoughts about global warming.

Having said that, I wish I did not have to use my home town as an example of data suggesting quite the opposite, but it is what it is (I assume this is a dynamic link): 

Williston set a record low of 29 this morning, tying a previous record low set in 1993.

On another note, closer to my current home, here in Grapevine, Texas, a suburb of Fort Worth, TX. Remember that drought in north Texas. One word: over.

The huge Grapevine Lake is 12 feet over "normal," whatever is meant by "normal." All I know is that the picnic areas are flooded, and today I heard the soccer coaches say the soccer fields are flooded. 

Cold In Texas -- May 13, 2015

Nooners

Wow, it's cold in Texas; had to turn the heat on in the apartment today. Global warming? LOL. The atmospheric CO2 must have dropped below 400 ppm. By the way, rumors are there's an atmospheric CO2 app for the new Apple Watch. It comes pre-installed on the Algore Apple Watch edition. $15,000 edition. Just a rumor.

Today's atmospheric CO2 report:

Today's atmospheric CO2 report was brought to you by Scripps CO2 - Mauna Loa Laboratory - CO2 now.org.

• Delta from 2013 to 2014: 2.94 (0.7%)
• Delta from 2014 to 2015: 1.97 (0.5%)

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For the women, and perhaps for some of the men out there, the book recommendation for this month: Jane Hawking's Traveling To Infinity: The True Story Behind The Theory Of Everything. Surprisingly good. Especially for Anglophiles.

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Good news: Stark County (Dickinson area) rejects new wind farm. The Dickinson Press is reporting:

Applause erupted Tuesday morning after the Stark County Commission rejected a conditional use permit for an 87-turbine wind farm stretching between Richardton and Gladstone.

The developer, NextEra Energy, is headquartered in Florida. Needs to go back home.  NextEra  has no wind farms or solar farms in its home state.

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Growing Antarctic Sea Ice Could Force Research Stations To Move -- May 13, 2015

Algore needs to update his PowerPoint slide presentation. Discovery is reporting:

Growing sea ice surrounding Antarctica could prompt scientists to consider relocating research stations on the continent, according to the operations manager of the Australian Antarctic Division.

Rob Wooding said that resupplying Australia's Mawson Station -- the longest continuously operated outpost in Antarctica -- relied on access to a bay, a task increasingly complicated by sea ice blocking the way.

"We are noticing that the sea ice situation is becoming more difficult," Wooding told a media briefing.

Wooding said that at Mawson, the ice typically only breaks up for one or two months of the summer, but in the last four to six years this has not happened every year, and some years only partially.

"In the 2013-4 season we couldn't get anywhere near Mawson due to the sea ice and we had to get fuel in there by helicopter which is inadequate for the long-term sustainability of the station," he said, adding that the French and Japanese had similar problems.

Wooding said Australia had not yet come close to shutting down a base because of sea ice, but had to look at "unusual measures" to keep operating.

But flat earthers are still alarmed by global warming. 

By the way, atmospheric CO2 must be well above 420 by now since no one mentions it any more. 

Global Warming? What Global Warming? -- May 6, 2015

For second year in a row, snow may fall in Denver on Mother's Day.

Disclaimer: this is not the weather channel. Do not make any travel plans based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

It Is April, Isn't It? When Will We See Global Warming? -- April 22, 2015

Overnight lows in / near the Bakken.

Today's EIA "Energy Cookie" -- April 17, 2015; Japan's CO2 Emission -- 2nd Highest On Record -- So Much For The Kyoto Protocol

Today's EIA "energy cookie:

EIA is currently in the process of updating maps of major tight oil and shale gas plays, including the Eagle Ford and Marcellus plays, which will help to better characterize the geology of key areas of production in the United States.

EIA's most recent maps focus on shale and tight oil plays, and characterize plays based on geologic characteristics, including rock type and age. Understanding geologic history and processes helps exploration and production companies reduce the risk of drilling dry, nonproducing wells and better understand hydrocarbon resource potentials. --- EIA

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The Kyoto Protocol Up In Smoke

CO2 emissions second-highest on record for Japan:

Japan's greenhouse-gas emissions rose to the second-highest on record in the year ended March 2014, revised government figures showed on Tuesday, reflecting a rise in coal-fired power after the indefinite closure of nuclear power plants.

Emissions rose 1.2 percent to 1.408 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent from a year earlier.

That was up 0.8 percent from 2005 and up 10.8 percent from 1990.

That compares with record emissions of 1.412 billion metric tonnes in 2007.

All of Japan's 48 nuclear reactors have been shut down since September 2013, amid rigorous safety checks required after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami wrecked the Fukushima plant northeast of Tokyo. Nuclear power had accounted for 26 percent of Japan's electricity generation. Its loss has forced the country to import natural gas and coal, increasing its greenhouse gas emissions.

Preliminary data in December had shown the emissions were a record high in the year ended March 2014.

Don't even get me started. Rumors are Algore is flying to Japan today to have a high-level discussion with Japanese leaders.

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400 PPM CO2 And Blizzards In April

NBC News is reporting:

As many as 70 vehicles piled up in one spot of a Wyoming interstate Thursday after a heavy April storm dropped almost 10 inches of snow on the area.

An almost 150-mile-long stretch of Interstate 80 remained closed in both directions Thursday afternoon between Cheyenne in southeast Wyoming and Rawlins in the central part of the state because of treacherous, slick conditions that caused accidents across the area, officials said. The worst spot was near mile post 342, between Cheyenne and Laramie, two of the state's major population centers.

Don't even get me started. Unless Mile Post 342 is 11-feet tall, it was buried. 

For The Archives -- April 15, 2015; Kennedys Might Get Some More Skiing In This Weekend

The biggest story for the morning: US natural gas reserves at 110 years at current usage rate.

I remember years ago when they said US coal would last a hundred years.

I wonder if the same can't be said for oil with one slight tweak: US crude oil reserves will last a hundred years at projected decline in usage rate.

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For The Archives

Who beat Harry Reid? asks Rush.

Hillary stages photo-op; has three votes for sure. 

Homeland Security buys 62 million rounds of AR-15 ammo. Does the US government issue AR-15's? I honestly don't know.

Hillary's campaign says to call her Hillary is sexist; but she uses "H" for her logo. I remember when folks told me it was inappropriate to call the Unaffordable Care Act by its other name, ObamaCare. It turns out that everyone calls it ObamaCare now instead of its other name, the Unaffordable Care Act.

Ebola virus found in semen six months after recovery. Two questions: a) who thought of this?; and, b) why?

Attention deficit drugs are going mainstream; increasingly used by corporate suits.

This is April, isn't it? The Kennedys might get some more skiing in this weekend in Colorado. Dr Roy Spencer is reporting:

A strong spring storm developing over the Northern Rockies will bring heavy snow and strong winds to portions of Wyoming and Colorado over the next few days, with the heaviest snows expected on Friday. Winter storm watches and warnings are starting to be issued, with more modest snow totals expected in Montana, Idaho, Utah, and New Mexico.

Predicted total snowfall amounts from the GFS model exceed 5 ft in scattered areas by Sunday morning.

Monday Afternoon - Miscellaneous -- April 13, 2015

Conoco to see non-core assets. Reuters is reporting:

ConocoPhillips is preparing the sale of noncore oil and gas producing acreage in the United States, in the latest sign that oil majors are becoming more accepting of lower oil prices, according to people familiar with the matter. 

While the world's oil and gas companies have been looking to buy assets on the cheap since oil prices plummeted, epitomized by Royal Dutch Shell Plc's agreement earlier this month to buy BG Group Plc for $70 billion, they have been reluctant to sell assets in case oil prices recover and they can fetch more. 

ConocoPhillips has hired Wells Fargo to sell some of its noncore U.S. assets, the people said on Monday. These assets include oil and gas properties in the Rockies, East Texas, South Texas and Northern Louisiana, according to one of the people.

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Whose Side Is Mr Obama On?

Reuters is reporting:

Russia paved the way on Monday for missile system deliveries to Iran and started an oil-for-goods swap, signaling that Moscow may have a head-start in the race to benefit from an eventual lifting of sanctions on Tehran. The moves come after world powers, including Russia, reached an interim deal with Iran this month on curbing its nuclear program. The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ending a self-imposed ban on delivering the S-300 anti-missile rocket system to Iran, removing a major irritant between the two after Moscow canceled a corresponding contract in 2010 under pressure from the West. 

A senior government official said separately that Russia has started supplying grain, equipment and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil under a barter deal. Sources told Reuters more than a year ago that a deal worth up to $20 billion was being discussed and would involve Russia buying up to 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day.

We have Iran and Saudi Arabia fighting a proxy war in Yemen.

We have Mr Obama and Mr Putin fighting their private war in the Mideast.

Mr Putin is firmly on the side of Iran and Syria. What a great chess game. Mr Obama made the opening move to "open" Iran to investment; Mr Putin immediately countered by taking advantage of the opportunity to begin trading. Mr Obama said the "deal was done" in an earlier speech, and now it's just a matter of working out the details. Apparently Mr Putin has begun working out those details.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

Regardless of how the wars turn out, some observations:

• defense industry should do very, very well; Saudi has a lot of money to spend on arms
• defense industry should do very, very well; Iran has pent-up demand; the Obama-Iran deal will help 
• in the "old" days, the level of war-drum noise at this point would have raised oil prices to $150 range; with the current glut of oil, no one seems concerned

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The Kennedys Are Going Skiing

Is it just me or has this been the best year for skiing across the US? California was an exception; had a miserable year, but Colorado and the northeast did very, very well. It continues. Weather.com is reporting:

The calendar may say mid-April, but we have our eyes on a system that may produce significant snowfall for the Rocky Mountains, including the Denver metro area this week. 

The culprit is a sharp southward plunge of the jet stream which will drive into the Northwest Monday, then the northern Rockies and Great Basin Tuesday, bringing lowering snow levels to the Cascades, Bitterroots and Wasatch, not to mention high winds to the Great Basin. 

Winter storm watches have already been posted in the Wasatch of Utah and high wind watches and warnings have been posted from in parts of six states from Death Valley, California to Colorado's western slope, including the Salt Lake Valley.