Sunday, October 4, 2015

Utilities, Koch Brothers, Energy Companies, 1; Birds, US Wildlife, Sierra Club, 0 -- October 4, 2015

I'm not going to get into the whole "intent" issue -- this is a really, really slippery slope. For example, I doubt most vehicular deaths due to drunken driving were caused by a driver intending to kill someone.

I'm also not going to get into the fact that it appears different federal courts have different "feelings" about this issue. This is not an issue the Supreme Court will ever take up.

All I'm going to do is post the story for the archives, and suggest that this was a huge win for utilities, the Koch Brothers, the oil and gas industry, and a huge loss for the US FIsh and Wildlife Service, for Ducks Unlimited, for the Sierra Club.

The AP is reporting that wind turbines have carte blanche when it comes to slicing and dicing migratory birds:
Companies accused of causing migratory bird deaths may be harder to successfully prosecute after a federal appeals court recently ruled that a century-old wildlife protection law only applies if the killing is intentional.
The decision by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals runs contrary to two other federal courts' interpretations of the 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act and could save companies that operate wind farms, power transmission lines and other methods of energy production millions in research — at the risk of more bird deaths.
"If you have a dead migratory bird, you have a violation. Doesn't matter how, why or when; that's historically been the government's interpretation," said Barry Hartman of K&L Gates, a Washington law firm that represents Duke Energy Corp. "And what the court is saying is that interpretation doesn't extend to unintentional takes."
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has maintained that no intent is required to violate the law, which makes it illegal to "pursue, hunt, take, capture" or "kill" more than 1,000 bird species. But companies have long claimed they should not be held responsible for actions that incidentally cause deaths — up to about a half-million annually by wind turbines alone, the federal agency says.
It was my understanding that President Obama had already provided "top cover" for wind farms with regard to slicing and dicing. I guess this case just provided more clarity.

I doubt we've heard the last on this one. 

Random Note On Samson Oil And Gas Activity In Williams County -- October 4, 2015

A reader asked about the siting of a Samson Oil and Gas well in T158N-R98W. This was my reply:
In all of T198 R98, I see only two wells on confidential list; all the other permits / wells in that township are drilled / active.

The two I see are sited in section 30 (near north line) and their name suggests both will be running north, into sections 19 and 18. One will be a middle Bakken well and one will be a Three Forks wells.

That's what I see on the NDIC GIS map; there may be others I am missing.

These are the two I see:
  • 30304, conf, Samson Oil and Gas, Rainbow 9-19-18HTF, Rainbow oil field; NENE 30-158-98; and,
  • 26918, conf, Samson Oil and Gas, Rainbow 10-19-18HBK, Rainbow oil field; NENE 30-158-98.
That's what I see and, of course, I could always be wrong. I don't see a "rig" icon sitting on the sites, but someone has written in telling me the GIS map has not been updated for quite some time.
If I missed another Samson Oil and Gas well in that area, please let me know. 

Not Ready For Prime Time -- The Mideast -- October 4, 2015; "For Those Paying Attention, Mr Obama's Foreign Policy World-View Has Failed -- The London Telegraph

There might be another story coming out of the Mideast. With US-Israel relations at an all-time low, and tea leaves suggesting Obama won't help Israel even if Israel needed help, Israel might be willing to "work under the radar" to do things it would never have thought of doing in the past.

There are two stories that suggest things might be changing.
Building on the Golan Heights would normally result in huge public outcry from the US but President Obama already has his hands full with regard to Syria and no plans for Syria anyway. The Golan Heights is the least of his worries. In addition, with relations at an all-time low between the US and Israel, this can't make things much worse.

The Palestinians may be at their weakest point in years. Their #1 US friend is on the ropes (Hillary Clinton); and their #1 funding source, Saudi Arabia may be tightening the purse strings. In addition, whatever actions Israel takes with regard to Palestine right now, it's going to be overshadowed by Russia in Syria.

In fact, almost everything in the Mideast right now is going to be overshadowed by the Russians.

Tesla Update

Los Angeles Times headline: Tesla lags behind 2015 sales target despite strong quarter.
Tesla Motors said it delivered a record 11,580 cars to its customers during the third quarter of this year but remains off the pace needed to hit its annual target.
Elon Musk, chief executive of the Palo Alto electric-car maker, told investors it expects to deliver between 50,000 and 55,000 cars this year. Through nine months, it has delivered only 33,117 vehicles.
A giant fourth quarter is unlikely given the automaker's ongoing trouble bringing its second model to market. Though the company announced the first deliveries of the Model X SUV this week with great fanfare, it put only a half dozen of them in the hands of customers.
Tesla won't say when more customers will get the vehicles.
To reach its annual target, Tesla would have to sell its cars during the current quarter at a nearly 50% greater pace than its record third-quarter rate.
US Peace Prize President Could Be Charged With War Crime

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:
The medical charity Doctors Without Borders closed its hospital in the Afghan province of Kunduz on Sunday, and charged that a suspected U.S. airstrike that killed 22 people there appeared to have been a war crime. The closure was a blow to the embattled northern province where more than 400 people have been injured in the last week in fighting between Afghan security forces and the Taliban. The group took control of the provincial capital briefly last week.
The Pentagon said there are three investigations into the airstrike, one by the Defense Department, one involving both the United States and Afghanistan, and one by NATO. Pentagon officials have thus far said only that a U.S. airstrike Saturday morning may have caused collateral damage.
Doctors Without Borders said it would be satisfied only with an investigation by an independent, outside authority.
The aid agency called the bombing, which went on for more than an hour, horrifying and said it had informed U.S. and Afghan officials of the hospital's GPS coordinates before the strike occurred.
I assume President Obama never got the 3:00 a.m. phone call.  Can you spell Benghazi? Long lecture speech on Clock Boy. Long lecture / speech on Oregon shooter. Complete silence on US drone attack on Afghani clinic. To paraphrase President Obama, it seems that every three months or so, we hear another story of the most advanced nation on earth committing an atrocity on a third world country. By the way, it turns out the Oregon shooter had same ethnic background as President Obama: parent #1, white; parent #2, black.

Energy Revolution In The United States Continues -- Tracking US LNG Exports -- October 4, 2015


June 28, 2017: Lithuania signs with Cheniere for the first time ever.

June 28, 2017: China's switch to natural gas from coal moving faster than forecast

April 30, 2017: update on where LNG liquefaction is headed -- RBN Energy.

February 4, 2017: WSJ story on Japan, Texas, Rick Perry; first LNG arrives in Japan that originated from lower 48, and from US shale; previously, US LNG to Japan from Alaska

January 13, 2017: add Denmark to the list

December 10, 2016: first US LNG headed for Japan. Japan is the world's largest consumer of LNG.  US offers much other LNG exporters cannot offer: dependability; flexibility; honesty; integrity; pricing.

November 29, 2016: US LNG exports continue to surge

August 3, 2016: Middle East and North Africa are becoming major markets for US LNG -- Oil & Gas Journal.

March 15, 2016: Brazil is emerging as a major market for US LNG -- RBN Energy (archived).

February 26, 2016: Russia losing dominance in European energy market.
Original Post
These are the facts and the tea leaves:
  • global energy requirements will continue to increase
  • it's likely that energy requirements will increase more quickly than expected in China and India as the middle class grows in each of those countries
  • China is already transitioning to a middle class consumer economy (see Bloomberg, 2015) (Apple, Ford among the US companies to notice this quite some time ago)
  • intermittent energy sources (wind, solar) will remain niche energy producers
  • only three energy sources can provide the global energy required: nuclear, coal, natural gas
  • except for China and India (which will use all three sources -- nuclear, coal, natural gas), the rest of the world will turn to natural gas [August 3, 2016: Mideast turning to nuclear, but new nuclear plants won't be ready until 2020's.]
  • natural gas is the energy source of the future
  • look at the amount of coal burned annually over the past 50 years; now imagine that the amount of coal will be cut by 50% and replaced by "something." That "something" can only be natural gas
Which leads us to this article as reported in USA Today:
Now may not be the best time to unveil plans to export liquefied natural gas from the U.S. But don't tell Charles "Buddy" Roemer.
The former governor of Louisiana will formally announce Monday one of the largest LNG-export proposals in the U.S., at a time when faltering demand for gas in Asia, as well as low prices, threaten the viability of ventures much further along the way than his.
"There may be 40 ahead of us in the world already producing, but there are 30 behind us, and something is happening," said Roemer, chairman of a Baton Rouge-based G2 LNG. "This will be a powerful industry."
The company is assembling a project worth nearly $11 billion, which would make it one of the biggest energy undertakings ever in Louisiana. Over 30 years, G2 LNG would export 672 billion cubic feet of LNG annually to China, Europe, the Caribbean and India.
Then a lot of warnings in the article about over-supply of global natural gas. But:
"Natural gas will be the product of the future," Roemer said in an interview. "It will take the place of coal. It will take the place of oil. It will be a threat to the old empire."
Moreover, according to Roemer, U.S. LNG will become increasingly appealing in comparison to gas from other, less stable regions of the world, like Russia and the Middle East.
"The thing that's attractive about America is its consistency," he said. "It's the fact that you make a deal and we honor it. It's not (Russian President Vladimir) Putin. It's not the Middle East. It's America, and I think this energy business will be important to America.
That's the reason we started this venture. I know there's competition. I like that. But the chance to deliver a promise made in America around the world is powerful to me."
A huge "thanks" to Don for the link.

Meanwhile, How Efficient Is Solar Energy? Not Very
Definition Of "Oxymoron": Efficient Solar Energy

The New York Times is reporting:
When SolarCity, the fast-growing provider of rooftop solar electricity systems, announced last year that it would begin making its own equipment, executives said they would focus on creating high-efficiency panels in an effort to reduce the cost of the electricity they sell. They announced on Friday that they had done just that, with a panel that converts more of the sun’s energy into electricity than competing products.
The company plans to start making the panel — whose output has been measured at more than 22 percent — this month at a small plant in Silicon Valley, said Peter Rive, a founder, but will eventually produce it at the enormous factory it is building in Buffalo.
The move into manufacturing, a business that has proved deadly for many other upstart American solar companies, came with the acquisition of a start-up, Silevo, and is intended to help the company compete with conventional energy sources once generous federal subsidies begin to phase out at the end of next year.
Although 22 percent may not seem like a tremendous level of efficiency, the breakthrough for SolarCity is that it can produce the panels at a lower cost than it pays to buy standard models but get more electricity out of the same square footage, Mr. Rive said. 
The more one knows about intermittent energy, the less one likes it.

Chandelier, Sia

CLR Reports Another Huge Bakken Well In Brooklyn Oil Field; 5/8 Bakken Wells To DUC Status -- October 4, 2015

Monday, October 5, 2015
  • 30715, SI/NC, XTO, State 11X-16MB4, Charlson, no production data,
  • 30873, 708, Missouri River Resources, Arikara 3W-3H-BK, Squaw Creek, plug and perf, 19 stages, 2.9 million lbs, 320-acre spacing; total depty, 15,631 feet; t7/15; cum --
Sunday, October 4, 2015
  • 30047, SI/NC, XTO, Thorp Federal 11X-28E, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 30874, 779, Missouri River Resources, Nationa 3W-4H-TF, Squaw Creek, plug and perf, 19 stages, 2.8 million lbs, 320-acre spacing; total depth, 15,885 feet; t71/5; cum --
  • 30875, drl/NC, XTO, Roen 24X-23AXD, ELK, no production data,
Saturday, October 3, 2015
  • 29481, 917, CLR, Barney 7-29H, Brooklyn, 30 stages, 3.4 million lbs, t5/15; cum 48K 7/15;
  • 30046, SI/NC, XTO, Thorp Federal 11X-28A, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 30882, SI/NC, XTO, Sorenson 31X-28H, Siverston, no production data,

29481, see above, CLR, Barney 7-29H, Brooklyn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

A Duperow Well Has Been Added To The Monster Well List -- October 4, 2015

This well has been added to the "Monster Well" list:
  • 11269, 11269, XTO, Martin 3 1, Bear Creek, a Duperow well, vertical;  s11/84; t12/84; cum 1.172 million bbls 7/15;
Drilled back in 1984, this well is still active and will be celebrating it's 31st (?) birthday next month.