Thursday, April 1, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Evening Edition -- April 1, 2021

Tesla: data points prior to earnings report, link here.

  • Ford: April 1, 2021, today, press release:
    • reported 1Q21 sales
    • sold 6,614 Mustang Mach-E electric crossover vehicles
  • Nio:
    • reported sales of 20,060 units, topping its lowered forecast;
  • Xpeng:
    • reported sales of 13,340;
  • Tesla:
    • analyst projections, RBC Capital Markets Research:
      • 170,000 units    
      • 164,800 Model 3 / Y vehicles
      • 5,300 Model S / X vehicles
      • if so, would represent a 92% increase from one year ago, but,
      • a 6% decline from the previous quarter (4Q20);
      • this estimate is down from a previous view for 182,000 deliveries
    • another analyst, Gene Munster expects Tesla to miss even those lowered estimates
      • sees deliveries around 160,000, but feels the shortfall will be temporary;

High school girls soccer: MaxPreps national rankings are out. Our granddaughter's team jumped 22 points after "moving on" in the Texas championship playoffs, winning their opening game 7 - 2. Olivia is one of three freshmen on the varsity team. These are the latest national rankings, link here:


Finally, Native American Tribes Most Affected By DAPL Weigh In -- April 1, 2021

From The Williston Herald:

Native American tribes have been the driving force behind efforts to shut down the Dakota Access pipeline, but now a Native American tribe has come forward in support of continuing its operation.

Chairman Mark Fox of the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation has sent a letter to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers asking for single-tribe consultation on continuity of operations for the Dakota Access Pipeline.

In the letter, Fox notes that half of the oil produced on the MHA’s reservation is taken to market through Dakota Access.

“We seek immediate consultation on the alternatives being considered by the Corps regarding continuity of operations of the Dakota Access Pipeline or alternative delivery systems while any NEPA-related or other federal review of DAPL is conducted,” Fox wrote.

Something Tells Me The Market Has Room To Run -- Updated -- April 1, 2021

This was posted earlier: 

**********************************************
For Investors
Only

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Major indices, at the close:

  • S&P 500: 4,019.87; 52-week range, 2,456 - 4,021. NEW HIGH?
  • Dow 30: 33,153.21; 52-week range, 20,735 - 33,259.
  • NASDAQ: 13,480.11; 52-week range, 7,288 - 14,175.
  • Russell 2000: 2,253.90; 52-week range, 1,035 - 2,360.

Individual:

  • CVX: 105.76; 52-week high, 113.
  • COP: 54; 52-week high, 61.
  • XOM: 57.39; 52-week high, 62.55.
  • OKE: 51.35; 52-week high, 51.91.
  • ENB: 36.83; 52-week high, 37.31.
  • EPD: 22.27; 52-week high, 23.71.
  • KMI: 16.84; 52-week high, 17.97.
  • MNRL: 15.71; 52-week high, 17.05

WTI: up 3.87% today; up $2.29; closed at $61.45.

Headlines:

  • Big Oil "beats" NYC appeal on climate change lawsuit. 😀
  • Saudi Aramco's falling profits put vision 2030 in jeopardy. Crocodile tears.
  • XOM to beat previous guidance
Social media:
  • $2 trillion infrastructure bill could rise to $10 trillion if progressives push it through;
  • energy analysts with good track records suggesting we will see $200-oil by end of year (2021);
  • Saudi Arabia looking to raise production: not stated -- seasonal; Saudi Arabia burns oil for a/c;
  • other OPEC+ members want to raise production to cover increased local demand
  • YOLO, FOMO, YHSAY (or YHNSAY)

Now this from Breitbart:

The S&P 500 closed above 4,000 for the first time in history ... stocks are now enjoying the boost from the third round of stimulus spending, a Fed that promises to be supportive for years to come, vaccinations spreading to ever-larger segments of the population, and an economy that is out-performing almost everyone's expectations.

Thursday's ISM Manufacturing Survey was the latest piece of evidence that the economy is firing on all cylinders. The headline number jumped to the best reading since 1983, with strong readings in new orders, production, and employment.

The numbers were so strong that they are feeding into fears that the economy could overheat and produce too much inflation.

In the anecdotal portion of the ISM report, many executives complained about the soaring costs of raw materials—which could be an early warning of inflation to come or a transitory price jump reflecting the economy's lurch from a sudden stop to a tire-screeching relaunch.

There are still danger signs outside of inflation. Economists had forecast that the initial jobless claims number released Thursday would indicate continued improvement in the labor market, with a median estimate of 675,000 claims. Instead, claims moved up to 719,000. And the total number of people claiming unemployment benefits remains staggeringly high at more than 18 million.

Tomorrow's monthly jobs report is expected to show a tidal wave of hiring, with 650,000 workers added to payrolls and unemployment falling to 6 percent. Goldman Sachs is projecting 775,000, and the top of the range of estimates by analysts surveyed by Econoday is one million. Anything topping that upper estimate would be good news for workers but likely would further stoke fears of inflation.

No Comment -- April 1, 2021

From a reader, the reader's comments, not mine:

No Comment -- April 1, 2021

 


No Comment -- April 1, 2021

 


Something Tells Me The Market Has Room To Run; Eleven More Oil & Gas NDIC Permits -- April 1, 2021

Status of blog: operating at 54% of operating capacity.

**********************************************
For Investors
Only

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

This from Breitbart:

The S&P 500 closed above 4,000 for the first time in history ... stocks are now enjoying the boost from the third round of stimulus spending, a Fed that promises to be supportive for years to come, vaccinations spreading to ever-larger segments of the population, and an economy that is out-performing almost everyone's expectations.

Major indices, at the close:

  • S&P 500: 4,019.87; 52-week range, 2,456 - 4,021. NEW HIGH?
  • Dow 30: 33,153.21; 52-week range, 20,735 - 33,259.
  • NASDAQ: 13,480.11; 52-week range, 7,288 - 14,175.
  • Russell 2000: 2,253.90; 52-week range, 1,035 - 2,360.

Individual:

  • CVX: 105.76; 52-week high, 113.
  • COP: 54; 52-week high, 61.
  • XOM: 57.39; 52-week high, 62.55.
  • OKE: 51.35; 52-week high, 51.91.
  • ENB: 36.83; 52-week high, 37.31.
  • EPD: 22.27; 52-week high, 23.71.
  • KMI: 16.84; 52-week high, 17.97.
  • MNRL: 15.71; 52-week high, 17.05

WTI: up 3.87% today; up $2.29; closed at $61.45.

Headlines:

  • Big Oil "beats" NYC appeal on climate change lawsuit. 😀
  • Saudi Aramco's falling profits put vision 2030 in jeopardy. Crocodile tears.
  • XOM to beat previous guidance
Social media:
  • $2 trillion infrastructure bill could rise to $10 trillion if progressives push it through;
  • energy analysts with good track records suggesting we will see $200-oil by end of year (2021);
  • Saudi Arabia looking to raise production: not stated -- seasonal; Saudi Arabia burns oil for a/c;
  • other OPEC+ members want to raise production to cover increased local demand
  • YOLO, FOMO, YHSAY (or YHNSAY)

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$61.45
4/1/202104/01/202004/01/201904/01/201804/01/2017
Active Rigs1343656050

Eleven new permits over the past few days, #38228 - #38238, inclusive:

  • Operators: RimRock, MRO, CLR, Kraken
  • Fields: Heart Butte (Dunn); Bailey, Chimney Butte (Dunn), Sanish;
  • Comments:
    • Rimrock has permits for three more Two Shields Butte wells in SWSW 22-149-92; the wells will be sited 275' NSL and between 386' and 236' FWL;
    • MRO has permits for one Sebastian well; one Frieda well; and, one WR Connolly well, all in NWNE 14-146-94;
    • CLR has permits for two Jensen wells and one Mittlestadt well in NENE 17-146-95; 390' FNL and between 1029' and 1119' FEL;
  • Kraken has permits for one Gayne well and one Jeffery wells, both are Three Forks wells, both in NESE 24-154-93;

Six permits renewed:

  • CLR (4): four Gibb permits in Williams County;
  • XTO: one Johnsrud permit in McKenzie County;
  • True Oil: one Northern State permit in McKenzie County

MRO Reports Another Typical Marathon Bakken Well In Reunion Bay -- April 1, 2021

I'm still here. I replied to a reader's comment:

You can tell I'm getting more frustrated, irritated, snarky, cynical as the week goes on. This has been a horrible week for me with regard to working internet / wi-fi issues with Spectrum. 
The good news: I now have some of the best internet / wi-fi resources and at substantially lower prices. The secret: switched from Spectrum to another carrier. I love Spectrum, have been with them for years, but every ten years or so, I suppose, it's important to see if things in that part of the world has changed. LOL. I will be back to normal next week. But I love my new internet / wi-fi / new provider / and so much less expensive. 

WTI: up 3.7%; up $2.19/bbl. Trading at $61.35.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$61.35
4/1/202104/01/202004/01/201904/01/201804/01/2017
Active Rigs1343656050

One well coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, April 1, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 82 for the year:

  • 37403, A/AL, MRO, Standfest USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, first production, t--; cum 190K 2/21; the "Standfest pad" wells are tracked here. Even the skeptics / cynics are admitting these are pretty awesome wells.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212837394373561814467384650892057
BAKKEN1-20213137512374861997547976456922077
BAKKEN12-20202130168301891773636569347450
BAKKEN11-20201125088251731969332424308710
BAKKEN10-20202059973595014953971840632575026

RBN Energy: propane inventory build imperiled by pull of exports to Asia. Why am I not worried? Should I be?

Wow, what a ride! That’s what came to mind yesterday as the 2020-21 propane season drew to its official end. But the excitement and uncertainty aren’t over, folks. Not by a long shot. Propane exports are still running sky-high; end-of-season inventories are at the low end, with a whopping 2-MMbbl withdrawal number in EIA’s stats yesterday; and a backwardated forward curve is not doing anything to encourage U.S. marketers and midstreamers to rebuild stocks.  We get it — no one wants to think about next winter yet, just as spring is really springing. But still, you’ve got to wonder, could the dynamics that have been roiling the propane market be setting us up for skinny inventories and price spikes in the 2021-22 propane season? Today, we examine the challenges facing the propane market over the next few months.

Re-posted by the NDIC: it's still wrong --


 

New Wells Reporting 2Q21

Monday, April 19, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:
35803, conf,   Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H-TF,  

Sunday, April 18, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 97 for the year:
37716, conf,  CLR, Carson Peak 12-35H1,

Saturday, April 17, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 96 for the year:
37794, conf,   CLR< Carson Peak 13-35H,
36922, conf,   MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH,

Friday, April 16, 2021: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 94 for the year:
37795, conf,  CLR, Carson Peak 14-35HSL1,
37230, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HS,

Thursday, April 15, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 92 for the year:
37231, conf,  WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HX,
36248, conf,  BR, Stortroen 2D MBH,
35802, conf,  Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H,

Wednesday, April 14, 2021: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 89 for the year:
37232, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA,

Tuesday, April 13, 20211: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 88 for the year:
37324, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL,

Monday, April 12, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year:
None.

Sunday, April 11, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year:
37833, conf, Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, MAG 1,

Saturday, April 10, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 86 for the year:
None.

Friday, April 9, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 86 for the year:
37323, conf, MRO, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B,

Thursday, April 8, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 85 for the year:
None.

Wednesday, April 7, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 85 for the year:

  • 37858, drl/drl, Red Trail Energy LLC, RTE 10.2, wildcat, formation target: AMSDEN; SWNW 10-139-92; see graphics below. Note: Amsden, Tyler, Heath -- perhaps not for purists, and not to be taken out of context -- these three formations are pretty much different names for the same general formation. See this post.

Tuesday, April 6, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 84 for the year:

  • 37818, drl/NC, CLR, Dallas 4-30H, Truax, first production, t--; cum --;

Monday, April 5, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 83 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, April 4, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 83 for the year:

  • 37591, drl/NC, Slawson, Loon Federal 2-24-25H, Big Bend, no production data,

Saturday, April 3, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 82 for the year:

  • 37592, drl/NC, Slawson, Loon Federal 5-24-25TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36247, drl/NC, BR, Stortroen 2C TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,

Friday, April 2, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 82 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, April 1, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 82 for the year:

  • 37403, conf, MRO, Standfest USA 42-8H, 

**********************************
Data for 2Q21: This Page
Data for 1Q21:  1Q21
 Data for 4Q20: 4Q20
Data for 3Q20: 3Q20
Data for 2Q20: 2Q20
Data for 1Q20: 1Q20
Data for 4Q19: 4Q19
Data for 3Q19:  3Q19
Data for 2Q19: 2Q19
Data for 1Q19: 1Q19
Data for 4Q18: 4Q18
Data for 3Q18: 3Q18
Data for 2Q18: 2Q18
Data for 1Q18: 1Q18
Data for 4Q17: 4Q17
Data for 3Q17: 3Q17
Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10