Friday, April 25, 2025

End-Of-Day Highlights From X -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48521ARCHIVES.

The big story today, without question, Google and the Mag 7+

Headlines without links that caught my eye from an end-of-day scrolling through x. If this format increases the number of paid subscriptions to the blog, I may continue this format. Saves a lot of time.

  • distillate and jet fuel contribute to record US petroleum product exports in 2024;
  • judges continue to block efforts by Trump to cut costs; behind the scenes, he's winning way more than he's losing
    • this is why presidents pivot to overseas issues in their second term; can't get anything done domestically; Trump will be much more successful; US Supreme Court will be overwhelmed if they have to sort out all these cases.
  • Netherlands delays nitrogen emissions target, defying its own judges and the EU; buys time for farmers but tests the limits of domestic courts and EU environmental law;
  • EU's rhetoric to make deals with "everyone else" because of Trump's tariffs won't work; no one else has the markets that the US has -- Trump knows this
  • Europe faces "decisive moment" in energy security, Ursula von der Leyen warns that without action, twin threats of Russian sabotage and high prices will batter the bloc [spoiler alert: too late]
  • Ursula von der Leyen is the president of the European Commission, a position she has held since 2019; prior to her current job, she worked for Angela Merkel's cabinet between 2005 and 2019;
    • she will be around for a long time; she was re-elected to head the Commission in July, 2024;
    • this assures that the economic gap between the US and the EU will continue to widen even if Biden is re-elected in 2028, something the Europeans are counting on.
  • most prescient headline seen in a long time, from Barron's: at 94 years of age, Buffett is still top of his game; Berkshire Hathaway faces a future without him [well, duh] 
  • Iraq to send 220,000 tons of wheat to Syria as a gift [Syria used to be the breadbasket of the Levant -- the Levant does not include Egypt]
    • Iraq and Syria comprise the breadbasket of the Levant; 
    • however, the al-Hasakah Governorate in Syria is more commonly recognized as the "breadbasket" due to its extensive fertile land and agricultural production
    • the al-Hasakah Governorate now leads the world in turning plowshares into armored Toyota pickups.
  • Haynesville gas production rises on better prices [who would have thought]
    • everything is bigger in Texas;
    • Haynesville is in Texas;
    • so is Dak Prescott.
  • Kansas City Fed Services data: incredibly good -- data posted by Liz Ann Sonders -- she had no comment; "never" does, but wow, she presents a lot of data and a lot of graphs
  • once a huge supplier of natural gas, Iran now needs Russian help; Russian gas supplies to Iran could begin as early as 2025 [for Joe Biden: this is 2025, just saying]
    • bad news for the EU if Russia ships natural gas formerly destined for the EU to Iran;
    • really, really good news for operators in the Permian.
  • reminder: US Dept of Education will resume collecting payments on defaulted federal student loans; those affected know that the Trump administration means business -- something these former students could blow off under the previous administration
  • they say federal student loans outstanding may be as much as $1 trillion
    • Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Jerry Jones and a few other folks could pay off this $1 trillion debt if they were really serious about this problem; 
    • which reminds me, the second and third rounds of the NFL draft are scheduled for tonight. Later: Shedeur Sanders is still available to start the fourth round. Have we ever seen anything like this before? Asking for Tom Brady, the GOAT.
  • the US Federal circuit courts, e.g., the Ninth Circuit Court, hears 40,000 cases per year. With 12 million illegal immigrants let in by Joe Biden, the Federal courts will be busy for 300 years if all they do is hear "due process" cases for these 12 million immigrants; my advice: if you want to get rich in this country, go to law school and become an immigration lawyer.

For The Archives -- I'm Lovin' It -- oilprice.com -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48520WIND.

This is for the archives. Everyone of my readers has seen this story. If not, they're not paying attention. LOL.

Lede

Germany's RWE just pulled the plug on its U.S. offshore wind business.
Quietly. No fireworks, no headlines about thousands of turbines scrapped—just a dry admission that it's "halting activities" in American waters.
For one of Europe’s biggest green energy giants to walk away from a market as large as the U.S., in the middle of an energy transition no less, is not just a business decision.

It’s a red flag.

The exit—confirmed by a speech manuscript published ahead of a yet-to-be-delivered speech by the company’s CEO—comes as RWE rethinks where and how it deploys capital. In March, the company slashed $11 billion off its low-carbon investment plan, citing rising costs, hostile regulatory environments, and a spike in its required return on investment from 8% to 8.5%. In other words: too risky, too expensive, too slow. [Sounds like the US oil sector, under Biden, Kerry, Pocahontas, and many others.]

RWE's CEO, Markus Krebber, had already warned last fall that Trump’s return to power could delay or derail projects on the U.S. East Coast. Now, the company is making that pivot official. All U.S. offshore wind operations are paused—indefinitely—and RWE will instead chase safer, more lucrative projects in places like Germany, where it just broke ground on a new 22.8-MW onshore wind farm.

Blaming the failure of an inefficient business plan on Trump. So, what else is new?

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Meanwhile

Link here.

Again, for the archives, my readers have already seen this story.

Week 18: April 29, 2025 -- May 5, 2025

Locator: 48483TOPSTORIES.

IN PROGRESS

President Trump first 100 days came to an end April 30, 2025. Top three issues still outstanding:

  • the Ukraine - Russian war; at least 50% of Americans favor Putin taking Crimea if not more, if that's what it takes to end the war;
  • tariffs: ongoing trade war; at least 50% of Americans want tariffs on China reduced so American products from China can come down in price;
  • southern surge: at least 50% of Americans feel strong-arming terrorists from Venezuela, Colombia, Iran, Russia, is not giving them due process and it's just not "American."
Latest GDP 1Q25 estimate: - 2.5. GDPNow. In fact, first read of the 1Q25 GDP came in at a minus 0.3%.

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Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects.

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The First 100 Days
January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

Fifteenth Week Of President Trump's Presidency
14 x 7 = 98 days.

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The Top Stories

TOP STORY: Cardinals convene to begin process of selecting new Pope.

Photo-op of the day:

Biggest story of the week:

Top stories of the week:



Top international non-energy story:
  • large unexplained explosion at major Iran port still unexplained; no one takes responsibility.
  • Ukraine -- US sign deal for Ukraine rare earths 
  • Houthi missile hits Tel Aviv's international airport. Airport to be closed for 48 hours. Israeli retaliation expected. Could be severe.

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy stories:



Top national energy story:


Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:

Four New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48518B.

WTI: $63.02.

Active rigs: 30.

Four new permits, #41848 - #41851, inclusive:

  • Operators: EOG (3); Oasis
  • Fields: Alger (Mountrail); Cottonwood (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has a permit for an Emie Federal well, lot 6, section 7-157-92, 
      • to be sited 2581 FSL and 356 FWL.
    • EOG has permits for three Ross wells, SESW 16-156-92, 
      • to be sited 450 / 550 FSL and 1700 FWL.

Eight permits renewed:

  • BR: four Demicks Lake wells and four Clemens wells; Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County.

Source: CNN Says ICE Has Detained "Colorado Man" And Set To Deport Him -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48517CALIFORNIAMAN.

Maybe he will get to share a cell (and a margarita) with "a Maryland man." I assume the Democrat delegation from Colorado has already booked tickets to Venezuela.

A member of my inner circle, who will remain unnamed, feels Trump is acting too quickly; not giving this individual the due process he deserves. And so it goes. Welcome to my world.

Link here.


And then, of course, there's also "California man." Link here. Tag: California man DUI to be released early. Oscar Eduardo Ortega-Anguiano, 43.

Google Is Tracked Here; How Is Google NOT The Most Compelling Story Right Now -- And Google --> Nvidia --> US Tariffs --> China -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48516CHARTS.

Focus on dividends

  • PSX raised its dividend about 5%; from $1.15 to $1.20.

GOOGLE

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Charts of the Day
April 25, 2025

Browsers: this simply blows me away. 

Until looking at it today, I had no idea. I vividly remember "the year" Google released the stripped down "Chrome" laptop: June, 2011. Why? Because my sister-in-law went to Costco to buy a Chrome laptop for her niece in middle school because "the California schools" were requiring students to have a Chrome laptop. Because it worked; because it was stripped down (for simplicity); and, because it was affordable.

Google

Google earnings beat on strong margins; the stock is rising: Barron's link here.

$8 billion "paper gain." Link here.

AppEconomy Insights, link here.


This chart should blow you away -- remember, compare "like" quarters, link here:


As big as AI was, it just got bigger. Google will now spend more than originally planned -- does this sound like the Bakken revolution in 2007? Link here.

Way more, link here.

Even way more: everyone will now want to buy Chrome. 

It's not for sale but ... it's all about ... hey, before I go there .... why has the Google monopoly story gained so much interest all of a sudden? Connect the dots: two years ago ... Anyway, I digress --  everyone will want to buy Chrome now. Wow, great, great story / great, great opportunity for investors? Link here.

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Coffee Shops

As mentioned the other day, we now have a new coffee shop in our neighborhood, "Black Sheep," out of Britain, and I love the ambience. But at $4.08 / cup of black coffee (no sugar, no cream, just black) it gets expensive very, very quickly.

Starbucks would be similarly priced and I no longer care for Starbucks, the coffee shop, but I still enjoy their Pikes Place it's my go-to Keurig cup at home.

Well, lo and behold, how fortuitous. Our apartment complex has now raised the bar by adding a Starbucks coffee machine to the "business center." The coffee is free.

Wow, a nice alternative to going elsewhere and paying $4 for a cup of coffee.

Mag 7 Tea Leaves -- Friday, April 25, 2025

Locator: 48515MAG7.

Mag 7 tea leaves, but first:

  • The NBA: The largest comeback in NBA playoff history!  
  • The NFL
    • The NFL draft. The NYTimes: winners and losers. Link here.
    • Shedeur
    • Dallas: Dak's future is secure 
    • "First Take" on ESPN
    • The 34-year-old prodigy that just blew up the NFL draft. The WSJ link here.

Now, the Mag 7+ tea leaves.

Robotaxis:

  • who's number one?
  • who's number two? It's not whom you think?
  • maybe number three but not even close yet?

Uber: the state to watch? Colorado. Still in play.

EV: Slate -- this is what you get for $27,000 (-$7,000 Federal credit) = $20,000 -- not much.

  • InsideEVs
  • no paint, no radio (much less, stereo, LOL), no touchscreen
  • Amazon's Bezos is a fan; link here;
  • if it succeeds, Firestone Service will pivot; if one use's one's imagination, "the concept" could work, but it will take someone with vision and big bucks.

Apple:

  • short-term: challenging
  • long-term: looking good
    • much sooner than later, all iPhones coming to US from offshore will be coming from India; none from China; link here;
    • that scares China more than everything else: many story lines 
    • if China loses Apple, China loses a lot more than just Apple
    • some say Apple may have to backtrack if quarterly numbers are bad
    • fact: it won't get easier Apple if they backtrack, delay, pivot -- I think some analysts forget that Trump has been in office less than 100 days
    • Trump's term is projected to last four years
    • waiting Trump out is a non-starter
  • the US monopoly lawsuit on Google might be all about Apple;
  • regardless, how this lawsuit plays out is really, really important for Apple
  • at the end of the day: where is Apple spending its CAPEX; where is Alphabet spending its CAPEX
  • Apple's AI / Siri has (almost) become the laughingstock among some analysts at same time as Chrome has surged in popularity; Chrome has Google Assistant
  • I still use Firefox for the blog, but I am using Chrome more and more
  • whenever I have trouble getting to some websites, I turn to Chrome
  • is the Federal government is optimizing its websites for Chrome or Microsoft's Edge

Is anyone paying attention? When did this happen? More importantly, how did this happen?

Is Chrome an Apple story? Important video to watch, link here. Spoiler alert: "they" won't let Apple buy it. LOL.

Intel:

  • as hard as "they" try, it just doesn't seem to be working
  • what's missing in all these discussions? Money, deep pockets, money, deep pockets -- exhibit A: Google 
  • link here.

Tariffs:

  • China vs the US; everything else is noise
  • China needs US tech way more than US needs whatever China sells
  • question of who can outlast whom
  • I would have thought China's long-term focus could outlast American's quarterly investment angst
  • if Trump wins on tariffs against Chine, it speaks volumes about the widening gap between China and the US on so many issues

AI is still an energy story.

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What Can I Say?
Homes For Porsches

This is a local story.

I think it's fascinating.

In much of the US, they're worried about affordable housing and the homeless.

In Texas, not so much.

The Biggest News Story Of The Week -- Google -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48514GOOG.

Scroll through x.

Google will blow you away.

Huge earnings.

SpaceX.

YouTube.

Chrome.

Waymo.

CAPEX.

It simply doesn't quit.

TGIF -- So Much Going On -- Can't Keep Up -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48513B.

Tag: MMF, MMFs

My favorite chart, link here

So much happening in the Mag 7:

  • Apple -- India
  • Google
  • Waymo
  • Slate

I may or may not get to all these stories during the day.

Recommendation: track mag 7 on x.

Harvard much more reliant on federal funds than commonly believed.  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $62.25.

New wells:

  • Sunday, April 27, 2025: 91 for the month, 91 for the quarter, 298 for the year,
    • 40728, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-15H,
    • 40727, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 4H,
  • Saturday, April 26, 2025: 89 for the month, 89 for the quarter, 296 for the year,
    • 41148, conf, BR, Devils Backboe 5B,
    • 40726, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 2H,
    • 40725, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1-1H-LL,
    • 40707, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 3H,
    • 40491, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 2B,
  • Friday, April 25, 2025: 84 for the month, 84 for the quarter, 291 for the year,
    • 41069, conf, BR, Tilton Tree 3F ULW,
    • 40362, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 10H,

RBN Energy: regional balances tell the tale of the US crude oil market.

Over the past 15 years, the U.S.’s crude oil supply/demand balance has been transformed by the Shale Revolution. Increasing production unlocked through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have pushed up the nation’s overall supply without an equal change in refining capacity, resulting in significant changes in regional balances. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what PADD-by-PADD crude oil supply/demand balances can tell us and preview our latest Drill Down Report