Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Just Following Up On An Old IP Question --February 3, 2021

The Hess AN-Bohmbach wells have been discussed often. They are tracked here.

I assume I've talked about this one; can't remember.

35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, 35 stages, 9.9 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 316K 12/20;

Does anything catch your eye?

Yeah, that IP of 10,626

Here's a pretty good post at the time. In that post, I said I would be waiting for the NDIC report. I don't recall if I ever followed up on that. Maybe I did. I don't recall. Whatever. 

Here's a screenshot of the sundry form from the file report:

It's possible there was a typo on the sundry form. 

But if so, there were two typographical errors. Note the natural gas MCF IP: 27,577 MCF which is about 10x the typical natural gas MCF IP. 

So, it was real. I guess.

Here's a screenshot of the frack/completion:

The Movie Page

The Draft Page, Kevin Costner, 2014. 

Critics: mixed reviews. 

A bit of irony considering the choice of the Cleveland Browns was made for budgetary reasons only. And then seven years later:

My hunch: the movie played better for true football fans than for movie critics. 

From wiki, look at how "valuable" the screenplay was:

The screenplay was the number one script on the 2012 Black List survey of unproduced screenplays and WhatCulture listed it as the 10th best script of the 2010s. 
It was argued that the script "follows one of the central tenets of screenwriting which is, 'thou shalt make things as hard as possible for your protagonist.'" 
However, it was also stated that "[some] of this high-octane drama was lost in the screen translation, which is a shame, since the script is as good as it gets."

Updating Those 1Q19 Wells With No IP At Time They Came Off Confidential List, Part 2 -- February 2, 2021

Part 1 here.

I am in the process of updating the wells that came off the confidential list in 1Q19 but were either not completed (DUCs) or had no IP. I've gone through about one-third to one-half of all those wells in 1Q19. 

These wells were DUCs waiting to be completed last time I checked. Now updated:
  • 34919, 1,028, XTO, Christiana 21X-6AXB, West Capa, t6/19; cum 184K 12/20;
  • 34918, 1,206, XTO, Christiana 21X-6A, West Capa, t6/19; cum 281K 12/20;
  • 28954, 2,924, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-7, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 197K 12/20; 
  • 34917, 1,201, XTO, Christiana 21X-6EXH, West Capa, t6/19; cum 219K 12/20;
  • 28956, 3,577, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-15509402215H-9, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 288K 12/20;
  • 28955, 2,074, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-8, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 116K 12/20;
  • 32173, 1,812, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-6, Capa, t3/19; cum 120K 12/20;
  • 32163, 1,812, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-5, Capa, t3/19; cum 194K 12/20;
  • 30536, SI/A, Slawson, Wolf 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; cum 00,
  • 33010, 1,391, Petroshale, Petroshale US 12H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/19; cum 223K 12/20;
  • 33204, 1,934, Petroshale, Petroshale US 13H, Antelope-Sanish; t5/19; cum 272K 12/20;
  • 30539, A/F, Slawson, Badger 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; cum 00;
  • 22747, 696, Enerplus, Arnica 149-93-21B-22H TF, Mandaree, t4/19; cum 148K 12/20;
  • 32164, 1,812, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-4, Capa, t3/19; cum 133K 12/20; 
  • 34899, 2,110, MRO, Weidman USA 11-15TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum 289K 12/20;
  • 32149, 1,763, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-2, Capa, t3/19; cum 128K 12/20;
  • 32148, 2,211, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LE-155-96-2635H-1, Capa, t3/19; cum201K 12/20;
  • 31497, 1,657, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-4H, Charlson, t12/19; cum 179K 10/20; off line 11/20;
  • 34897, 4,704, MRO, Hurkes USA 41-16TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum 317K 12/20; 
  • 30763, AI/F, Slawson, Hunter 5-8-17MLH, Big Bend, t--; cum 37K after one month;
  • 34896, 2,828, MRO, Linton USA 31-16TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum 298K 10/20;
  • 30762, A/F, Slawson, Hunter 3-8-17H, Big Ben, t--; cum 56K after 48 days; 
  • 24047, A/F, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-3H, Charlson, t--; cum 101K 12/20; 
  • 34253, 207, BR, Raider 4A MBH, Twin Valley, t2/19; cum 367K 12/20;
  • 35011, A, WPX, Spotted Horn 27-34HD, Squaw Creek; still a DUC, but huge production being reported, 10/19; t--; cum 274K 12/20; 
  • 31499, 1,660, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-6H, Charlson, t12/19; cum 211K 12/20;
  • 24045, A/F, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1H, Charlson, t--; cum 42K 12/20;

These wells had significant production since last checked.

  • 32816, 1,272, CLR, Brandvik 10-25H2, Corral Creek, 60 stages, 7.7 million lbs, t12/18; cum 371K 12/20; 
  • 34928, 3,603, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HD. 50 stages; 8.5 million bbls, Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum 328K 12/20;
  • 34927, 2,663, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HF, Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum 335K 12/20; 
  • 35029, 693, Lime Rock, Scott 3-7-6H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t11/18; cum 224K 12/20; 
  • 31799, 1,949, CLR, Mittlestadt 6-17H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 273K 12/20; 
  • 30362, 2,575, CLR, State Weydahl 5-36H1, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 465K 12/20; 
  • 30363, 2,446, CLR, State Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 174K 12/20;
  • 31800, 1,814, CLR, Mittlestadt 7-17H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 341K 12/20; 
  • 32813, 1,978, CLR, State Weydahl 9-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 338K 12/20;

Active but no IP last update:

  • 24978, 899, CLR, Syverson 3-12H1, East Fork, t819; cum 106K 12/20;

Well, This Is A Bit Reassuring -- February 3, 2021


February 4, 2021: well, it turns out this might not be so reassuring. See first comment. LOL. 

Original Post 

Link here.  

Cold Snap; Road To New England, New York; China? No Problem -- Just Build More Coal Plants -- February 3, 2021

ISO New England:

  • spiked to and remained at $250/MWh for sustained period of time today;
  • never got below $100 except for 15 minutes at 3:00 - 4:00 hour
  • hydroelectricity with two surges; unable to keep up;
  • coal and oil necessary
  • late evening: coal (4%); hydro (6%); and, renewable at 7%

Just think what this will look like in 2035. 


ISO New York:

  • at 10:32 p.m. ET, when things have really slow, AOC's constituents still paying $70 for electricity

Road to China:

A joint report released Wednesday by the U.S.-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found China built over three times as much coal-fired electrical power capacity in 2020 as the rest of the world combined.

As Voice of American News (VOA) delicately observed, this tremendous surge of coal-burning power plants, which are ostensibly one of the worst sources of global warming emissions, would seem to “undermine” China’s loudly declared “short-term climate goals” and Chinese dictator Xi Jinping’s promises to make his country “carbon-neutral” by 2060.

At least VOA addresses it. The NY Times ignores it. 

More from above:

The GEM/CREA report found China’s coal power capacity grew by a net 28.8 gigawatts. China built coal plants at such a frantic pace, to provide cheap power for its swelling industrial capacity, that some of its coal plants might never repay their construction and maintenance costs.

China approved the construction of a further 36.9 GW of coal-fired capacity last year, three times more than a year earlier, bringing the total under construction to 88.1 GW.

China now has 247 GW of coal power under development, enough to supply the whole of Germany. [This is just "under development; not all that it has.]

A team of central government environmental inspectors delivered a scathing assessment of China’s energy regulator last Friday, accusing officials of planning failures and focusing too much on guaranteeing energy supply.

Daimler To Split Into Two Companies: Cars; Trucks And Buses -- February 3, 2021


  • Daimler to spin off trucks, change name to Mercedes-Benz
  • Daimler to spinoff part of its truck business through IPO
  • Daimler to separate its trucks business from Merceded-Benz cars

So what's the story? From The WSJ:

  • hopes truck-making spinoff boosts valuation of its businesses
  • move highlights how conventional auto makers are under pressure to boost their stock-market value
  • Daimler will hand over a "significant majority" of shares in its business that makes trucks and buses to shareholders by the end of the year:
  • DMLRY up 6% after announcement
  • will eventually make Mercedes-Benz the name of the car-making business, which in the future will focus on developing luxury electric cars and automotive software
  • shares were up nearly 9% in trading in Frankfurt
  • an extraordinary shareholders meeting is planned for 3Q21 to seek approval
  • Tesla: market value: $827 billion
  • Daimler: market value: $76 billion
  • Daimler sells many more vehicles and generates hefty profits
  • Daimler's trucks and buses recorded $30 billion in revenue; sole 244,554 trucks and 13,309 buses in first nine months of last year
  • Volkswagen AG listed its truck business in an IPO in 2019, renaming it Traton SE. It now has market value of about $15 billion; Traton has been expanding to challenge Daimler and Volvo AB, the Swedish truck maker, and agreed last year to acquire US truck maker Navistar International;

Much more at the linked article. 

Motley Fool here

Daimler's plan calls for a separation of the automaker into two pure-play companies, with the majority listing Daimler Truck to focus on zero-emissions technology and software business. Management will begin preparing for a listing of Daimler Truck with the intentions that a significant majority stake in Daimler Truck will be granted to Daimler shareholders.

The goal is for the transaction and the listing of Daimler Truck (on the Frankfurt stock exchange) to be completed before the end of 2021. And once the spinoff is complete, Daimler aims to rename itself Mercedes-Benz.

From statista

From google:

John Kerry Missed The Memo On Social Distancing, Atmospheric CO2, Webex/Zoom -- Takes Private Jet To Iceland For Mtg On Global Warming -- February 3, 2021

Too much to track: Wow, this has been an incredible day on so many levels. I stopped following the market a week ago Wednesday with the GME debacle, and will probably ignore it for the rest of this week. Having said that, a couple of readers have sent me items I would have otherwise missed, and these are huge (AA, AAPL, Daimler, Qualcom). In addition, through a number "subscription-alerts" I'm getting items of interest that are blowing me away. Some of them are posted below. Through "subscription-alerts" MDU and NOG reported today, I believe. Haven't looked at them; saw the NOG headline, but not the MDU earnings.

Sports: all the talk is on the Super Bowl this week, of course. The Waste Management PGA tournament begins tomorrow and Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy will be there. Apparently Rory got excited in a press conference earlier today but I missed it. I will try to find it later tonight.

AAPL: after-hours spiking -- it is now almost confirmed what I posted earlier -- that Apple and Hyundai-Kai will, in fact, build the Apple Car in the US, targeting the West Point, GA, factory. Whoo-hoo! Apple just raised $14 billion with 40-year bonds. Targets 2024 for first car; most think it will be pushed back a year. If they wanted, they could produce an Apple Car next year. The hardware is not all that difficult and Apple's been working on the technology for over a decade. Link here.


NOG: buys into Marcellus. Press release says "it is transformative."

MDU: reports earnings, press release.

  • EPS of 56 cents beats by 4 cents;
  • second-best earnings results in 97-year history;
  • construction companies shattered earnings records
  • regulated energy businesses also had strong results

QCOM: drops 8% after earnings reported -- and the earnings were not all that bad. LOL.
chip shortage hurting sales;

Chesapeake: on verge of coming out of bankruptcy --

American Airlines: another shoe to drop?

  • warns 13,000 employees of furloughs as airlines prepare to lose federal aid next month;

Daimler: spins off its trucking division.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

EV revolution: I just don't see it, but if it occurs -- this country is going to need a lot of natural-gas generated electricity and copper wire.

John Kerry flies to Iceland for "global warming" conference. He says he missed the memo on Zoom, Webex. "Says the only way for a 'guy like him' to attend these conferences is by taking a private jet.

Earth warmed this past year due to cleaner air

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, MRO drops a rig:

Active Rigs1454645840

Two new permits, #38113 - #38114, inclusive:

  • Operator: Petro Harvester
  • Field: Leaf Mountain (Burke)
  • Comments:
    • Petro Harvester has tow more Leaf Mountain permits, both in SWSW 15-161-93,
      • 38114, 806 FSL915 FWL
      • 38813, 841 FSL 915 FWL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 33763, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 6-9-4-157N-99W TFH, 33-105-04490, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 37462, loc/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-1H, 33-053-09364, Phelps Bay, no production data,

Chesapeake On Verge Of Emerging From Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Later This Month -- February 3, 2021

From SeekingAlpha:

  • Chesapeake Energy says it is poised to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy this month as a high-volume, low-cost natural gas producer with little drilling planned on its shale oil leases this year.
  • The company says it will sell $1B in notes as part of its court-approved reorganization plan to exit bankruptcy under control of its senior lenders, including Franklin Resources.
  • Under the plan, which a judge in Texas approved last month, the company will cut $7B in debt.
  • Chesapeake also has renegotiated midstream contracts across all of its basins to reduce minimum volume commitments and firm transportation obligations.
  • The company says it plans to keep three rigs running in Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale, 2-3 rigs drilling in the Haynesville Shale of Texas and Louisiana, and one rig drilling in Texas' Eagle Ford Shale 50% of the time.
  • Chesapeake's 2021 rig plan contrasts sharply with the 18 rigs the company operated in 2019 before filing for bankruptcy protection last June. 

Sophia Baking Banana Bread During Class Breaks

Step one.

Step two.

Step three.

Step four.

Step five.

Step six.

Sophia and friend Cheri enjoying banana bread on the way to Tutor Time.

As Concise As One Can Say It -- Renewable Energy In The US -- February 3, 2021

From a reader who in the "energy" business. This is about as concise as one can say it:

US production of windmills is 3000 /yr. 
The US needs  the energy equivalent of 8 trillion KW/day if electric is to replace fossil fuel. 
(Diesel is 38KW/gallon.)  
At 2.2mw per windmill we need over 3.5 million or 1 per sq. mile. They last 20 years. 
At the rate of 3000/yr it’s not going to happen. 
The distribution of that amount of energy has not been addressed as far as cost or actual construction. 
Renewable is a dream. Electric replacement of the internal combustion engine is also a fallacy.  I am amazed by the auto industry investing in the electric car as a total replacement. I have no idea why they would all want to try to convert to electric.  It is a small part of transportation at best. 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply (I would write more but I'm backing banana bread with Sophia and helping her with her remote learning on Webex / Seesaw):

Thank you, very much. I agree completely. I think the "stuff" will hit the fan in about five years when "they" realize this was a huge mistake. The folks that stay the course (China, coal, natural gas, nuclear?) and the Mideast (oil and natural gas) could come out looking very, very well.

When I first started the blog over a decade ago, XOM provided an incredibly good paper that said there was simply not enough land or water for all the wind/solar farms that would be needed.

I agree with you: I have no idea what the automobile companies are thinking. I will continue to track all this stuff; it may seem I'm bullish on this whole thing; I'm not. I just think it's fascinating to watch.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- February 3, 2021

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.0 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 475.7 million bbls, about 4% above the already-fat five-year average;
  • refiners are operating at 82.3% of their capacity;
  • distillate fuel inventories were unchanged; remain about 8% above the already-fat five-year average for this time of the year;
  • jet fuel supplied was down 31.2% compared with same four-week period last year;

Going forward, but we probably won't see it in the numbers for quite some time, the most interesting number to watch will be US imports of foreign crude oil once the Biden mandates have been in place for six months.

Going forward, the two most important data points to follow in the weekly EIA petroleum report to see how the US economy is doing:

  • distillate fuel; and,
  • jet fuel supplied

And, finally, the data point that jumped out at me in this report: jet fuel supplied. After an almost-uninterrupted decline in the change of jet fuel delivered, unexpectedly, the percentage rose this past week. It's not much but it is there. It will be interesting to see the June numbers, year-over-year, 2020-over-2021.

Jet fuel supplied:

The Bakken -- February 3, 2021


From Social Media This Morning -- February 3, 2021

So, let's do it again: link here. On another note, how do these guys miss the point? This was a clear case of money laundering.

Covid-19 in India: link here. Death data corroborates this data; can't hide deaths under current media regime in India.

  • Three reasons:
    • no obesity;
    • young population;
    • curry;

I'd Rather Go Blind

Etta James

Active Rigs In North Dakota Jump To 15; Hess Adds A Rig -- February 3, 2021

Get Up!




Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1554645840

Rigs by operator:

  • MRO: 4
  • CLR: 2
  • Hess: 2
  • WPX: 1
  • Slawson: 1
  • Whiting: 1
  • Petro-Hunt: 1
  • Oasis: 1
  • Ovintiv: 1
  • BR: 1

Hess, drilling:

  • EN-Joyce-LE
  • CA-Russell Smith

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy:Canadian refiners grappling with morphing market realities, part 1.

Canada may be the land of backyard hockey, lacrosse, and loonies, but Canadians have many similarities to folks in the U.S. The same holds true for Canada’s refining sector, which like its American counterpart has been adjusting to big changes in domestic crude oil production, a declining need for imported oil, and, most recently, a period of severe refined-product demand destruction caused by the pandemic. 
What Canadian refiners lack, though, is the attention they deserve. After all, nearly 2 MMb/d of crude oil flows through their 17 refineries. And, by the way, they now turn to U.S. producers for virtually all their oil imports — a far cry from where things stood before the Shale Era. Today, we kick off a three-part series that examines Canada’s refining sector in greater detail.