Sunday, March 3, 2019

The Markets -- March 3, 2019

First things first: for those who were curious about Keith Mitchell's caddie -- enjoy. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Dow futures: up 104 points.

UNP: moving pre-market. Up 1.07%.

Headline over at CNN Business: "The 10-year anniversary of the bull market is coming."

Confirmed. Over at CNBC, Dow futures also up 107 points.

CNBC headlines (old headlines from last week):
  • Tesla's stock is tanking (Yahoo!Finance still shows TSLA with $3.69 billion in cash)
  • NYC deputy mayor suggests if women ran firms like Amazon, the HQ2 deal might have survived (I can't make that up)
  • stocks extend winning streak as economy strengthens 
  • failed North Korea talks will bring US and China closer together
  • why Friday's jobs report is more important than usual (spoiler alert: it's all about the Fed)

Winter Storm Wayne -- March 3, 2019

Global warming hits NYC. Is this a first? The New York Times will put out a special edition tomorrow morning because of the winter storm:
We’re bringing you a special early edition of Monday’s New York Today to help you prepare for the storm.
Weather: Your day is all about the snow.
Up to 10 inches are expected to accumulate between Sunday afternoon and 7 a.m. Monday in the New York City area, according to city officials.
All New York City public schools will be closed on Monday. The City University of New York also announced it will be closed.
“This is going to be a serious storm. People should be ready for really tough conditions in the morning,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said, urging New Yorkers to stay off the road in the morning and noting that officials expect the most intense snowfall just before the morning commute.
Florida. It turns out Juan Ponce de León traveled with his sister when "discovering" Florida. Her name? Beyoncé de León. Cocktail chatter for New Yorkers escaping to their winter homes this week.

Getting back to the winter storm. Over at google here are some of the headlines:
  • New York City, Boston among cities to be hit with disruptive northeaster ...
  • Live: New York City prepares for Sunday night snowstorm, State of emergency declared in New Jersey ...
  • Gov. Phil Murphy declares State of Emergency for New Jersey due to an ... 6abc Philadelphia
  • FORECAST: Winter Storm Wayne starts Sunday evening 3-3-2019 | Weather ...
  • New winter storm to hit Midwest, South and Northeast ... NBC News
  • When can you see your first snow of the season? The Weather Channel
Tomorrow evening we should see a lot of new cold weather records.

ISO New England: link here. It's starting. I have not see this before: electric rates are now spiking in New England, on a Sunday evening -- usually electricity prices spike early in the morning on weekdays -- not after dinner and certainly not on Sunday nights. But there it is. Spiked to about $175/MWh around 6:30 p.m. ET. Renewable energy not able to meet demand. Hydroelectricity from Caanada spikes. Natural gas at 46% of the fuel mix; nuclear 33%.

The Literary Page

I just ordered L.E.L: The Lost Life and Scandalous Death of Letitia Elizabeth Landon, Lucasta Miller, c. 2019. It will be released March 5, 2019.

See WSJ review.  It begins:
In her first book, “The Brontë Myth” (2001), Lucasta Miller retrieved the three scribbling sisters, Charlotte, Emily and Anne, from more than 150 years of variously fabricated identities and liberated their writings from the clutch of myth. The work was not only a brilliant exercise in reclamation but also an exploration of shifts in cultural temper and a shrewd meditation on biographical writing. “L.E.L.: The Lost Life and Scandalous Death of Letitia Elizabeth Landon, the Celebrated ‘Female Byron’ ” is only Ms. Miller’s second book, but it too is a valiant recovery job—the life of a writer, a woman first celebrated, then notorious, in her time and nearly forgotten today. 
I have Lucasta's first book -- the one on the on Brontës -- on my bookshelves -- or at least I did at one time. A fascinating book. Anyone taken in by the Brontë  myth should read that book. (I have to check: I may have donated the book to our oldest granddaughter's high school.) I have made the requisite pilgrimage to the Brontë parsonage in Hawarth, Yorkshire, England. One cannot be a true Brontë fan if one has not made that trip.

By the way, as long as rambling, I might add that the opening scene in Wuthering Heights is a perfect fit for those snowed in due to Winter Storm Wayne.

The Graphiic Page: Random Update On World Agriculture; US Crude Oil Production -- March 3, 2019

From FAO, a definition, ha/hg:
The data reported under this element represent the harvested production per unit of harvested area for crop products. In most of the cases yield data are not recorded but obtained by dividing the data stored under production element by those recorded under element: area harvested. Data are recorded in hectogramme (100 grammes) per hectare (HG/HA).
Reminder: Thomas Robert Malthus, 1766 - 1834.

Worldwide, here is the productivity of land used for growing wheat:

I find that absolutely amazing. It is simply amazing how productive terra firma is for growing wheat. The y axis is productivity, hg/ha. The graphic is for wheat. 

Now, the next question, is more or less land being turned over to agriculture? Here's the data:

The y axis is hectares of land on a global basis. Again, I find that amazing, all the land that is being added over the years to grow wheat. I assume the same holds for corn, and other agricultural products, depending on demand.

To get to those graphs, start here. At that link, scroll down quite a ways.

US Crude Oil Production

From Mark Perry, last week:

Reminder: M. King Hubbert, 1903 -- 1989. Never lived to see the Bakken revolution, or as Art Berman calls it, the Bakken retirement party.


Also from Mark Perry:

 I assume folks being polled were not told that humans have but 12 years left on earth.

Reparations -- Idle Computing

Disclaimer: there are a few assumptions in the calculations below. In addition, I often make simple arithmetic errors, and with big numbers, I often lose track of the number of zeroes involved. This is for my own use trying to figure out what reparations might cost the nation. Your numbers may vary.
  • Slave generations, 10: 1776 - 1865 (wiki says either 10 or 12 generations; I used the more conservative number of 10)
  • 10 generations x 40 years of work for each generation
  • average: 10 cents/day for wages across all generations
  • 40 years * 365 *10 cents = $1,460 * four family members per generation = $5,840 for one family across ten generations of slavery
  • the family would have taken their earnings and invested the $5,840 in the British and US stock markets over the years and the portfolio would have grown to $8,650 by 1865
  • the family’s portfolio would have grown to $1,467,045 at the height of the “Roaring 20’s” (1920s)
  • fortunately, the family would have had the foresight to sell before the  market crashed; the family would have kept the $1.5 million in cash until WWII
  • the family then would have invested the $1.5 million in the US stock market during the post-war boom, growing the portfolio to $2.3 million by 1955
  • spotting IBM, the company would have invested much of the $2.3 million in IBM in 1955, which then grew to $230 million by 1984
  • in 1984, the family would have spotted a small company called Apple and would have sold most of their IBM to buy shares in AAPL; the portfolio grew to $2.14 billion as of 2015
  • so, by all rights, this family is owed a “reparations” check of $2.14 billion 
  • since “every” African-American can trace his/her heritage back to a  slave family, the 37 million African Americans * $2.14 billion = $79 million billion or 79 thousand thousand billion or 79 thousand trillion or $79,000 trillion.

Early Production Numbers For Selected Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- March 3, 2019

The full list of wells coming off the confidential list this next week is posted at this page. These are production numbers for selected wells from that list:
  • 34823, conf, CLR, Vatne 7-25H, Hamlet,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34822, conf, CLR, Rosenquist 7-24H, Hamlet, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34733, conf, CLR, Pasadena 9X-11H, Banks, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34732, conf, CLR, Pasadena 8X-11H1, Banks, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33834, conf, Oasis, Berquist 5298 13-27 6T, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33536, conf, CLR, Holstein Federal 16-25HSL, Elm Tree, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 30367, conf, CLR, Brandvik 7-25H2, Corral Creek, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33670, conf, Enerplus, Bloosbury 150-94-05BH, Spotted Horn,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33662, conf, Enerplus, Berkeley 150-94-05BH, Spotted Horn, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33660, conf, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 3T, Banks, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33088, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 2-19H, Elm Tree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 30366, conf, CLR, Brandvik 6-25H, Corral Creek, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33659, conf, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 3T, Banks, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 32819, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 11-36H, Corral Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34731, conf, CLR, Pasadena 7X-11H,  Banks,  
ateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34511, conf, Nine Point Energy, Fritz 150-101-32-29-13H, Pronghorn, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 32818, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33090, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 6-19H, Elm Tree, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 32817, conf, CLR, Brandvik 11-25H, Corral Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- March 3, 2019

Monday, March 11, 2019: 38 wells for the month; 38 wells for the quarter
34823, conf, CLR, Vatne 7-25H, Hamlet,
34822, conf, CLR, Rosenquist 7-24H, Hamlet,
34733, conf, CLR, Pasadena 9X-11H, Banks,
34732, conf, CLR, Pasadena 8X-11H1, Banks,
33834, conf, Oasis, Berquist 5298 13-27 6T, Banks,

Sunday, March 10, 2019: 33 wells for the month; 33 wells for the quarter
33536, conf, CLR, Holstein Federal 16-25HSL, Elm Tree,
30367, conf, CLR, Brandvik 7-25H2, Corral Creek,

Saturday, March 9, 2019: 31 wells for the month; 31 wells for the quarter
33670, conf, Enerplus, Bloosbury 150-94-05BH, Spotted Horn,
33663, conf, Enerplus, Speedy 150-94-05BH TF, Spotted Horn,
33662, conf, Enerplus, Berkeley 150-94-05BH, Spotted Horn,
33660, conf, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 3T, Banks,

Friday, March 8, 2019: 27 wells for the month; 27 wells for the quarter
33088, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 2-19H, Elm Tree,

Thursday, March 7, 2019: 26 wells for the month; 26 wells for the quarter
35095, conf, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-6, Antelope,
30366, conf, CLR, Brandvik 6-25H, Corral Creek,

Wednesday, March 6, 2019: 24 wells for the month; 24 wells for the quarter
35094, conf, Hess, AN-Bohmbch-153-94-2734H-7, Antelope,
33659, conf, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 3T, Banks,
32819, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 11-36H, Corral Creek,

Tuesday, March 5, 2019: 21 wells for the month; 21 wells for the quarter
35093, conf, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope,
34731, conf, CLR, Pasadena 7X-11H,  Banks, 
34511, conf, Nine Point Energy, Fritz 150-101-32-29-13H, Pronghorn,
33089, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 4-19H, Elm Tree,

Monday, March 4, 2019: 17 wells for the month; 17 wells for the quarter
35092, conf, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-9, Antelope,
32818, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek,

Sunday, March 3, 2019: 15 wells for the month; 15 wells for the quarter
35390, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8--HLW, Siverston,
35091, conf, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-734H-10, Antelope,

Saturday, March 2, 2019: 13 wells for the month; 13 wells for the quarter
35391, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-7H, Siverston,
33234, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-4, Antelope,
33090, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 6-19H, Elm Tree,
32817, conf, CLR, Brandvik 11-25H, Corral Creek,

Health And Happiness? North Dakota Ranks #10 -- March 3, 2019

Everyone knows these lists are bogus but Americans love numbers and they love rankings. From something called, comes this list -- all 50 US states ranked by health and happiness, according to a new Gallup poll, link here.
#1 - Hawaii -- generally, Hawaii leads these kinds of lists; NY does not
#2 - Wyoming
#3 - Alaska
#4 - Montana
#5 - Utah

#9 - South Dakota
#10 - North Dakota

#12 - Minnesota

#14 - California

#16 - Connecticut
Now, from the bottom up:
#50 - West Virginia
#49 - Arkansas
#48 - Kentucky
#47 - Mississippi
#46 - Tennessee

Global Warming, Plastic Straws, Toilet Paper, And All That Jazz -- And Nothing About The Bakken -- March 3, 2019

Up early: I'm up early today -- the oldest granddaughter has a water polo tournament this week. First game today, Sunday, is at 8:00 a.m.

Cold: Wow, it's cold out there today -- a reader from southern Minnesota said the temperature this morning, 6:00 a.m.:
  • -17.5°F 
  • feels like -31°F 
That's pretty cold. Especially when it is supposed to start warming up in March. I hate to think what the temperature is in my hometown, Williston, ND. Here in north Texas we will see the "real cold" tomorrow morning when the wind chill is forecast to hit 8 degrees. That's 24 degrees below freezing.

Fake extreme weather: BBC removes / revises fake story after numerous complaints --  the BBC quoted the IPPR as stating that since 2005, the number of floods across the world has increased by 15 times, extreme temperature events by 20 times, and wildfires sevenfold. All fake, of course, and both the IPPR and BBC retracted the story. 

Most disappointing tweet this morning: Occasional-Cortex tweets that she uses air conditioning. Wow. That's a luxury that we can't afford any more -- but I guess if the earth is going to end in twelve years, it really doesn't matter, does it?

Air conditioning: I'm particularly sensitive to the "air conditioning" issue. Because of cost -- dollar-cost, not CO2-cost -- I minimize heating and cooling in our 900-square-foot apartment. [As I've mentioned before, our apartment is the size of one of Algore's walk-in closets.]

Several years ago when we lived in San Antonio where it's unbearably hot during the summer, I set a goal not to use air conditioning at all for one summer. My wife was spending the summer out in California so I was living alone and wanted to see if it was possible. It is, but it's not fun. I went the entire summer without turning on a/c once. It gets very, very hot in San Antonio in July and August; well over a hundred degrees and it's not necessarily a dry heat. The dry/wet line for that part of Texas is centered right over San Antonio -- some days very, very humid (think Galveston); other days very, very dry (think El Paso).

But I never turned on the a/c, so when I see that Occasional-Cortex uses a/c and she tells us the world will end in twelve years due to global warming, it's very, very disappointing. But we need to move on.

By the way, that summer that I never turned on the a/c, I was in great physical condition: I spent most afternoons and evenings swimming in the apartment complex pool.

Plastic straws: it is interesting to note what the millennials are willing to sacrifice when it comes to global warming or saving the whales or saving the forests. About a year or so ago, the big push was to eliminate plastic straws. It turns out there's a much bigger problem than plastic straws. From The [London] Guardian:
Wiped out: America's love of luxury toilet paper is destroying Canadian forests. Major brands’ refusal to use sustainable materials is having a devastating impact on forests and climate, new report says. 
It was reported that the average American uses three rolls of toilet paper each week. I can't make this stuff up. Folks commenting said that was absolutely "impossible." If you can't believe The [London] Guardian who can you believe. So far I've read no reports that millennials are demanding that Walmart remove toilet paper from its shelves. In fact, my hunch is we won't see one more story on this issue at all. I wonder if Occasional-Cortex will tweet on whether or not she uses toilet paper.

Sponge on a stick: from the linked article:
Americans are particularly to blame for this [Canadian forest / toilet paper] crisis. They make up just over 4% of the world’s population, yet account for more than 20% of global tissue consumption. The average four-person household in the US uses over 100lb of toilet paper a year.
Are there any options out there to prevent this destruction? Well, in ancient Rome they used a sponge on a stick, which they would then leave in a pot of vinegar to be used again.
The Talmud, the central text of Jewish law, prescribes a handful of gravel, with stones to be “the size of an olive, a nut and an egg” for greatest effectiveness.
The Federalist has a response. Wow, it turns out the "three rolls per American" was way off the mark, and another example of the hype to which environmentalists stoop. It gets tedious. [Note: the "three rolls per American" was in a tweet by Fortune, citing the same source as the Guardian story above.]