On Average, New England Will Have Enough Electricity This Winter -- October 19, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

If you came here looking for the Bakken, skip this page, scroll on! 

Updates

October 22, 2018: in the original post, I asked what happened to coal in New England? The last coal plant was shut down in early 2017. Link here.

October 20, 2018: a graphic that might help. PJM stands for Pennsylvania, (New) Jersey, and Maryland)

October 20, 2018: maybe New England can buy electricity from PJM if push comes to shove. From oilvoice.com:

The average annual capacity factors for natural gas-fired generators in the PJM Interconnection—the largest competitive wholesale electricity market in the United States—have increased in recent years, reflecting greater use of natural gas-fired generators in the region.

The increase in PJM's capacity factors for natural gas-fired generators is the largest of any regional transmission organization in the country in the past five years (2013–2017).

Similar to the rest of the country, the share of natural gas-fired electricity generation in PJM has increased during the past five years as relatively low natural gas prices have made natural gas more cost-competitive with coal.

Much of the increase in generation from natural gas is from generating units using combined-cycle technology. By comparison, the use of natural gas-fired combustion turbines in PJM has remained relatively constant.

Average annual capacity factors for natural gas-fired combined-cycle generators in PJM first surpassed those of coal-fired generators in 2015. Relatively lower natural gas prices—in part because of PJM's proximity to Appalachian natural gas production—have been a primary driver for increasing natural gas capacity factors. 

October 20, 2018: from an earlier link, the core of PJM (Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia and Ohio).

Original Post

This is what happens when you don't build wind towers and solar farms -- you risk running out of electricity. Hmmm. Sure.

This is a regional story; I've blogged about it often but if one doesn't keep reading about it, one forgets all the details. It gets confusing.

This is up in New England, Boston, specifically.

From The Boston Globe.

Link here.

Balance of power: Brisk enough for you yet? Try going without electricity. As the heating season arrives, the cooler weather again brings concerns that we could run out of juice on chilly days.

Just yesterday, the CEO of grid overseer ISO New England, Gordon van Welie, said we were precariously close to rolling blackouts -- “one large contingency away,” as he put it to an Associated Press reporter -- during last winter’s cold snap. Yes, it’s his job to tell everyone the sky is falling; ISO’s priority is ensuring the lights stay on across the region. But his warnings are sounding starker.

The giant Mystic gas-fired plant in Everett could hold the key -- especially now that it’s on the brink of closure. Owner Exelon is already retiring two smaller turbines there. The fate of its larger natural gas-fired units, Mystic 8 and 9, remain up in the air.

Archived. 

Data points as I understand them. Note: I could be way wrong on a lot of this stuff. I don't follow the New England electric grid all that closely.

• the largest power plant in New England is Milstone, in Connecticut
• the second largest power plant in New England is Mystic
• over the years, ISO New England has relied more and more on natural gas
• Mystic power plant is owned by Exelon, based in Chicago
• source of natural gas for Mystic is a natural gas import terminal literally next door
• the import terminal was formerly known as Distrigas, but is now also owned by Exelon -- the article didn't say if the terminal had a new name; maybe Mystic Terminal?
• so Exelon, Chicago-based, owns both the fuel source and the power plant
• Exelon, Chicago-based, says Mystic is no longer economic to run
• in an attempt to make it more economic to run, Chicago-based Exelon has already retired two smaller gas-fired (?) turbines at Mystic (the article did not say whether these turbines were gas-fired or coal-fired or run by hamsters on a tread mill)
  
• Chicago-based Exelon is considering unplugging two larger natural gas-fired units, Mystic 8 and 9, to bring the plant back to profitability
• apparently, Exelon plans to shut down Mystic entirely by 2022
• did we mention that Mystic is the second largest power plant in New England?
• the writer of the linked article seems to be as concerned about the fate of the natural gas import terminal as the power plant
• if the power plant is closed, the import terminal is no longer needed
• the import terminal imports LNG from "foreign shores"
• Exelon says it needs $1/month/each customer to keep the plant open until .... drum roll ... 2024  -- but it cannot increase rates without federal government (FERC) approval

So many questions not addressed in this article:

• was Boston also the home of the Big Dig? 
• the writer does not mention that as recently as Labor Day, 2018, an "anomaly" pushed the grid "to the brink"; link here.
• why is the writer so worried about the import terminal? after all, if Mystic is closed, apparently there's no need to import foreign LNG
• why is New England importing foreign LNG when this country, the US, has a glut of LNG and is exporting same?
• why is Mystic unable to make a profit? where are customers getting their electricity? 
• did this happen overnight? Or is this simply poor planning?
• why is solar energy and/or wind energy not making up the difference?
• is ISO England learning the same lessons that Germany and Spain learned? If so, were those lessons being taught a decade ago?
• can Milstone provide the necessary power to preclude rolling blackouts?
• it sounds like "everyone" is being alarmist; apparently ISO New England can purchase electricity from outside the region based on other articles; not sure if that is true; if so, no need for "rolling blackouts" -- there are other sources for electricity

ISO New England is linked here. 

• What happened to coal?
• On the "fuel mix" graphic today, coal is not even shown (I keep looking, assuming I'm missing something).

Last December 27, 2017, coal made up 5 - 6% of the mix. What happened to the coal in less than a year?

Bottom line: 

It looks like to me that there really isn't a problem for the customers served by Mystic. On average, Mystic has more than enough electricity. On average, Mystic has so much excess electricity, the utility "gives it away" -- at least giving away enough to preclude profitability. So, on average, Mystic's customers will do just fine. On average they have more than enough electricity, enough that on average they don't need the region's second largest power plant any more. 

Wow. When you think about it -- when you put it that way -- that's amazing. A region able to shut down its second largest power plant and still have enough electricity on average for all its customers. Imagine all the CO2 that won't be emitted. And the sacrifice? Occasional rolling blackouts. David Henry Thoreau would be supportive. 

By the way, we're talking "blackouts," not "brownouts." 

But my understanding is that this will be a mild winter in New England. What, me worry?

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More On Mystic

This was from a post on July 12, 2016. To save you the trouble of having to click on the link and leave this page, here is that post:

This is a cool story from Bloomberg. Again, I would not have known about this story had it not been for the blog and readers who alerted it to me sometime ago.
I've actually blogged about the Mystic River (once) before. See these other posts regarding the linked Bloomberg story above:

• New England's appetite for Trinidad's natural gas, September 30, 2015
• US LNG imports from Trinidad, July 25, 2015

Here's the most recent article, titled "Pipeline Phobia Keeps New England's Unlikely Trade Route Open" -- reminds me of the rum and molasses trade during the Revolutionary War:

Thanks to the shale revolution, the U.S. has plenty of natural gas of its own. All along the eastern seaboard, a chain of import terminals -- built when the country expected to get its fuel from abroad -- now lie idle.

Except one.

For reasons that have to do with environmental politics and geology, New England is bucking the trend. Three or four times a month, a police helicopter escorts giant ships through Boston Harbor, as they deliver liquefied natural gas from Trinidad to a terminal on the Mystic River. [And spewing all that CO2.]

Why buy from the Caribbean, when so much cheap gas is pumped out of Pennsylvania and Ohio? One objection is the new pipelines needed to bring it to New England. The Northeast is famously cold in winter, and it sits on beds of granite that make underground fuel storage a problem, so gas and power prices typically spike way above the rest of the country when there’s a freeze. But using shale gas to cut the bills means a longer-term commitment to fossil fuels, and any proposed pipeline route triggers local objections: it will leave a scar along the Catskill Mountains, or pose a safety risk to residential neighborhoods. That’s the dilemma that has given Engie SA’s import facility near Boston, unlike all its peers, a new lease on life.

“We’ve been competing with pipelines since we opened,” Carol Churchill, a spokeswoman for the French utility in Massachusetts, said by phone. Once the gas arrives in Boston, some of it goes straight to an adjacent Exelon Corp. power station and the rest is transported via existing pipes or by truck. “It doesn’t make sense to build a pipeline to satisfy demand for 30 to 40 days a year,” Churchill says.

That argument has seen off a few potential rivals. Kinder Morgan Inc. scrapped its proposed $3.3 billion Northeast Energy Direct project in April, after failing to sign up enough customers. The Constitution Pipeline, intended to bring Marcellus gas from Pennsylvania, has been held up because New York denied a water permit, amid concern about contamination of the city’s supply.

Solution or Stopgap?

Instead, New England relies on tankers like the BW GDF Suez Everett, a regular visitor, whose logbook reflects the surge in Yankee demand. It used to roam the world’s seas, putting in at places like Singapore, Nigeria and Yemen; this year, it’s been plying a straight shuttle between Trinidad, where it loads up with LNG, and Boston.

Engie’s terminal there looked like it was sliding into disuse a couple of years ago, but now it’s taking in more cargoes than at any time since 2012. It supplied 11 percent of New England’s gas in January.

To pipeline-builders, that’s a stopgap not a solution. They point out that New England, like other parts of the U.S., has a growing appetite for natural gas in homes and power plants, as dirtier fossil fuels like coal and oil are phased out. Gas-fired plants are providing more than half of the Northeast’s power supply this month, up from 15 percent in 2000.

Wow, I did not know it was a French utility. Now, it finally all makes sense. LOL. This is how the 13 colonies continue to thank France for their help in the Revolutionary War.

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The Mystic River or As The Native Americans Call It: The Big River River

From wiki:

The Mystic River is a 7.0-mile-long (11.3 km) river in Massachusetts, in the United States. Its name derives from the Wampanoag word muhs-uhtuq, which translates to "big river." In an Algonquian language, missi-tuk means "a great river whose waters are driven by waves," alluding to the original tidal nature of the Mystic. The resemblance to the English word mystic is a coincidence.  

And no, the "original Pocahontas, being from "Virginia" was not Wampanoag. Again from wiki:

... Pamunkey Indian Tribe, descendants of the Powhatan chiefdom, of which Pocahontas was a member, became the first federally recognized tribe in the state of Virginia.

The more recent "Pocahontas" is probably of Wampanoag heritage. Or, more than likely, not.

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Whales

Whales can be divided into two large groups: baleen whales and toothed whales. Baleen whales split from toothed whales (Odontoceti) around 34 million years ago. Hard to believe, but that would be some years before Bernie Sanders arrived on the scene. 

Baleen whales (systematic name Mysticeti), known earlier as whalebone whales, form a parvorder of the infraorder Cetacea (whales, dolphins and porpoises).

When we "lived" in Boston many years ago, I was always struck by the common root word for the Mystic River and the Mysticeti. I never did fully understand the relationship between the two if there was one. I visited the best whale museum in the world in New Bedford, MA, but I don't recall if I asked about that when I visited. If I didn't, it was another missed opportunity.

If you are in the area, the three things you cannot miss when visiting New Bedford, MA:

• the Whaling Museum;
• Seamen's Bethel; and,
• the little soup and sandwich shop that is overcrowded in the summer and empty in the winter across the street from Seamen's Bethel

 No one ever gives John D Rockefeller enough credit for saving the whales.

Idle Rambling On Natural Gas Imports Around The World; Wow, Look At Italy -- October 19, 2018

From wiki, natural gas imports, ranked by country (the data is not the most current, but looking at several sources, it's fairly accurate on a "currency" basis):

I assume the Canadian and US imports are pretty much based on region and cost; one might consider US-Canada one natural gas market (supply and demand).

I was curious about this after reading this in oilprice.com regarding China, from April, 2018:

Earlier this month Sinopec said it had plans to boost its LNG import capacity to 26 million tons annually over the next six years from the current 9 million tons. 

China’s total of LNG import capacity is 17 million tons. State energy companies have also begun turning depleted gas fields into gas storage facilities to avoid a repeat of this winter’s supply crunch.

Plans are to have all 25 underground gas storage sites before winter, and to increase LNG imports: according to Wood Mac, China’s LNG imports are set for a 25-percent increase this year, to 48-49 million tons. 

And this from same source, today:

Last year, China became the world’s second-largest LNG importer, taking in some 38 million tons of the fuel, a 46-percent increase on 2016. Even so, some parts of the country suffered shortages because the gas could not reach them fast enough.

As a result, China is now actively working on expanding its LNG storage capacity and pipeline network. It is also expanding its domestic natural gas production and storage capacity.

In the past 10 years China’s natural gas consumption has risen fourfold to more than 25 billion cu ft daily. Now, companies are turning depleted gas fields into storage facilities as part of efforts to avoid a repeat of last winter’s shortage.

After reading that China moved into the #2 position when ranked by natural gas imports, I was curious what country was #1. A lot of the data is "old" and, I assume, some of the data is questionable. Having said that, I was amazed to see where Germany, Italy, Great Britain, and France were on the list. I was amazed. Especially with Italy. How do they afford to pay for all that energy? Wow. 

I've talked about the growing gap between energy-rich countries (pretty much only the US) and the energy-poor countries (pretty much the rest of the world). Yes, the Mideast countries are energy rich but they are hardly major economic players in the big scheme of things; even Russia and Saudi Arabia are not giants in the overall global economy.

Also, Italy at this link also -- at the top of the list. It's 2014 / 2015 data but Italy is right up there with China (of course, China, back in 2014/2015 was using a lot of coal, but that's another story).

71 Active Rigs In North Dakota -- October 19, 2018

A recent high: 71 active rigs.

Active rigs:

$69.28→	10/19/2018	10/19/2017	10/19/2016	10/19/2015	10/19/2014
Active Rigs	71	56	31	66	190

Four permits today:

• Operators: Hess (3); Southwestern Production
• Fields: Ross Mountrail); Tracy Mountain (Billings)
• Comments: Hess has permits for a 3-well pad in SESE 8-56-91

And that was all -- I guess "everyone" went hunting.

Random Update Of Another CLR "R For Replacement" Well -- #24096, Jay In Banks Oil Field -- October 19, 2018

Yesterday, I wrote at length about this well. Link here for an "R" well:

• 33863, 2,805, Equinor, Gunderson 15-22 5H-R, Banks, t9/18; cum --

Now today, I run across another Equinor (Statoil) "R" well. For newbies, look at how great this well is. I've been running through the 2015 wells and it is amazing how good the Bakken wells are; absolutely amazing. The well, a half million bbls of crude oil in three years; this well will likely produce for 30+ years:

• 24096, 3,148, Equinor/Statoil, Jay 24-13F 1H-R, Banks 49 stages, 11.6 million lbs, t10/15; cum 426K 8/18;

From the geologist's report: the geologist's report was very bland until I saw this

 ... "where we had a maximum visual flare reaching 50+ feet." For newbies, we generally see flares of 3' to 5'. They were drilling this well over the 4th of July period -- I am not making this up .. "while we circulated, the rig crew by-passed the gas detector system by running all returns through the gas-buster where we had a maximum visual flare reaching 50+ feet. The flare maintained an average height of 15 - 20 feet while circulating continued. Once circulating was completed we resumed drilling the lateral portion of the wellbore at 1945 CST on 8 July 2015, where we saw our gas reach upwards of 8,000 units with a flare averaging 10 - 12 feet in height." Yup, it was quite a show for "July 4th." Clearly a great sense of humor out in the oil patch.

The graphic: it appears #24096 was a "replacement" well for #21791 which has been permanently abandoned due to liner problems and "complications." That was back in 2015.

Production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	12795	12692	11964	40185	35109	4972
BAKKEN	7-2018	26	12623	12102	13650	33181	25087	8018
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	352	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	28	10625	11061	10062	39986	24653	15305
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	12030	12122	9888	40655	24249	16378
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	13310	13271	8928	40776	26557	14188
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	13720	13359	10585	37962	27073	10858
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	12576	13038	9425	32649	19252	13367
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	11405	10979	9424	27550	15518	12001
BAKKEN	9-2017	14	6318	5793	5284	13589	7608	5960
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	535	541	398	1478	1268	193
BAKKEN	7-2017	10	3141	4221	3145	9875	8550	1305
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	11243	10542	9423	28752	27322	1400
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	12720	13203	10065	33887	30686	3170
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	12557	12510	10010	33035	30444	2561
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	11183	11103	9288	27862	4307	23524
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	14749	14735	10878	39975	19229	20718
BAKKEN	1-2017	28	15602	14879	11593	39315	33330	5957
BAKKEN	12-2016	24	12658	13453	9191	34990	29985	4975
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	13811	13569	11121	35645	32398	3217
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	16609	16559	13831	43620	34954	8635
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	17222	17138	9938	45260	39415	5815
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	16263	16596	13111	42499	37954	4514
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	18059	17914	14717	45220	36885	8335
BAKKEN	6-2016	29	15970	16090	12578	39483	33369	6114
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	15451	15132	13562	36869	32391	4478
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	13828	13918	13713	33494	32688	806
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	13392	13328	12063	30824	30408	416
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	13816	14190	12565	32167	31462	705
BAKKEN	1-2016	29	16509	15834	15141	30326	30326	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	15256	15947	15764	33588	33588	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	20233	20203	21765	32765	32765	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	19386	18386	37927	11286	11286	0

The XTO Klamm Wells

The Klamm wells:

• 30816, 589, XTO, Klamm 34X-9DXA, Siverston, t2/16; cum 204K 8/18;
• 30815, 705, XTO, Klamm 34X-9H, Siverston, t2/16; cum 162K 8/18;
• 30814, 95, XTO, Klamm 34X-9D, Siverston, t2/16; cum 204K 8/18;
• 30813, 294, XTO, Klamm 34X-9GG, Siverston, t2/16; cum 119K 8/18/
• 18698, 216, XTO, Klamm 34-9NWH, Siverston, t7/10; cum 215K 6/18; off-line as of 6/18 (as of 8/18)

Note: an Oasis Klamm well one section to the east:

• 17952, 406, Oasis, Klamm 13-10H, Siverston, t6/09; cum 191K 8/18; 

The Energy, Market, Sports And Political Page, Part 2, T+67 -- October 19, 2018 -- Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken

If you came here for the Bakken, scroll on. Nothing about the Bakken in this post.

The next big thing: "smart-sign" advertising on sides of 18-wheelers. The two companies that need to tie up to do this: 3M and Google. Start here. Then use your imagination. It was in 1972 that I first listened to a research chemist from 3M.

Boston - Astros: one of the most controversial plays in MLB postseason play. Give me a freakin' break. There was nothing controversial about the play and it had no effect on the outcome of the game .. except perhaps psychologically and emotionally the Houston Astros were never able to recover. I heard about the play; I had not seen it; and, I had not read about it. I was curious; went to linked article. The writer at the linked article came pretty close to shouting the same thing I just said, but couldn't quite make that leap -- it read as if he did not want to offend anyone. LOL.

As soon as I read the first paragraph, actually the first line in the article, I knew the whole controversy was bogus. This "interference call" happened in the first inning. Give me a freakin' break. In the first inning. The game has nine innings and if tied at at the end of nine the game can go to 56 innings or more. Anyone who says this affected the outcome of the game is an Astros fan. I'm curious what the nation's number 1 baseball fan, George Will, would say? George Will is from the east coast, not Texas, so I'm pretty sure I would agree with his analysis on this one.

On top of that, the ruling was made on the field, and after 3 minutes and 3 seconds, the officials had no video to overrule the call. The call "stands." The call was interference and the best video did not have evidence to the contrary.

Much more could be written but I've already written more than this story deserves. I assume somehow Trump will get dragged into this controversy before the week is out.

Boston - Astros: I had family commitments last night but got home just in time to see Dewers 3-run homer put the Red Sox ahead 4 - 0 from which the Astros never recovered. Great game. Having spent some of the best time of my adult life in Boston, I was rooting for the Red Sox. The Red Sox - Dodgers world series would have an incredible audience but one wonders if the gods won't favor the Milwaukee Brewers this time? I also spent a significant portion of my adult life in Los Angeles, but I've never warmed up to the LA Dodgers for some reason.

Direction of the blog: the other day I mentioned that "Saudi Arabia fascinates me" with regard to the "direction the blog" is likely to take.

Today, from the Drudge Report:

A new poll at the sidebar at the top -- is the Crown Prince toast?

• yes: he will not be the next king of Saudi Arabia
• no: he will be the next king of Saudi Arabia

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+67 -- October 19, 2018

Updates

October 20, 2018: Honduran update. Looks like Mexico got the message. If they continue to allow "this," Mexico will lose control of their southern border and their northern border.

Original Post

Nikki Haley: a Native American with 100% Indian blood. LOL. 

Honduran update: See the poll at this post. I suggested that a couple of well-placed phone calls would stop this. It is now being reported, but not confirmed, and has not been reported widely in the mainstream media yet, but apparently the mass of Hondurans -- which just reached the southern border of Mexico this past week -- is now disbanding and turning back. More to follow. My hunch: the "Trump resistance" was paying for this hoping to make this an issue for the midterm elections. Internal polling showed that the optics were actually working against the anti-Trumpers. Once they had that internal polling, the "project" was shut down. Hundreds of Honduran families are simply pawns in American politics. I will be taking down the poll at the sidebar at the right by tomorrow morning; vote if you have not.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Fireworks: for those who were "lucky" enough to catch this on CNBC a few minutes ago, it's quite a story.  Note that one could have bought this $10/share company for $1.60/share three years ago. The new CEO discontinued dividends about that time, and has now "promised" that he is about ready to start paying dividends again.

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The Great Gatsby and Einstein's Theory of Relativity, Part 2

Earlier this month I posted a note connecting The Great Gatsby and Einstein's theory of relativity.

I about fell off my chair when I came across this on page 394, The God Problem, Howard Bloom:

The confirmation of Einstein's theory made headlines. Worldwide. For example, on November 7, 1919, the London Times ran one of the most impressive headlines in the history of science: "Revolution in Science -- New Theory of the Universe -- Newtonian Ideas Overthrown." And the confirmation of the eclipse of 1919 made Einstein what Time magazine on December 31, 1999, called "the Man of the Century."

The question of "going back in time" was one everybody's mind in the 1920s.

It's interesting that Woody Allen even stumbled upon that -- among the many characters / personalities in Midnight in Paris one can argue that Zelda and F. Scott Fitzgerald were the equals among equals in that movie. [Ernest Hemingway certainly made up the triumvirate.]

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Extraterrestrial Aliens And Jews: A Twofer

There are three things that consistently amaze when I read about the advances in the STEM disciplines, the over-representation of:

• Harvard University alumni
• Jewish ethnicity
• Hungarian background

The Jewish ethnicity and the connection with STEM has been mentioned by many.

The Harvard University connection -- perhaps another story for another day.

The Hungarian background: I forget who it was -- perhaps Edward Teller -- but one of the physicists associated with the modern theories of particle physics suggested that extraterrestrial aliens landed in Hungary around the 20'th century millenium (1899 - 1902) bringing with them their knowledge of science.

So, I again about fell off my chair when I read that David Bohm was of Jewish Hungarian heritage. I can now add David Bohm to that list of possible Hungarian extraterrestrials. I assume this has been a subject discussed on middle-of-the-night "Red Eye Radio." [If you click on that link, be sure you have your volume turned off or down.]

A twofer. Had he not been self-exiled from the United States he very likely might have ended up at Harvard.

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Cocktail Trivia

In addition to the Jewish association with STEM after 1900, prior to that year, the Jewish population was associated with the clothing industry.

An example: Benoît Mandelbrot of fractal fame was "born in 1924. Benoît's father was a mere clothing merchant." -- p. 455, The God Problem, Howard Bloom.

This bit of cocktail trivia: why were the European Jews so associated with the clothing industry?

Hint: 1555.

CLR's Mountain Gap Wells In Rattlesnake Point Have Been Updated -- Incredible Wells; Look At All The Mountain Gap Wells Yet To Be Reported -- October 19, 2018

The CLR Mountain Gap wells in Rattlesnake Point have been updated. Two examples of several incredible Mountain Gap well:

• 33120, 3,510, CLR, Moutain Gap 7-10H, Rattlesnake Point, t5/18; cum 197K 8/8; 37 stages; 15 million lbs -- middle Bakken:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	37955	37855	23877	43818	42193	1230
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	33295	33370	20343	36735	36210	148
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	32272	32381	18972	34241	33637	236
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	84883	84474	57083	53685	50940	2745
BAKKEN	4-2018	4	7865	7658	5463	572	0	572
BAKKEN	3-2018	2	317	317	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	4	123	123	70	1055	0	1055

• 33123, 2,904,  CLR, Mountain Gap 10-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 63 stages; 15 million lbs, t6/18; cum 177K 8/18:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	49745	49775	36304	56759	56079	298
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	72321	72304	63098	74624	73769	480
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	52803	52816	52613	52548	51466	714
BAKKEN	5-2018	1	1702	1232	1041	847	832	15
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	4	76	76	131	754	0	754

Current graphics (look at all the Mountain Gap wells yet to be reported):

Huge Pipeline To Link Permian To Ports -- Rigzone -- October 19, 2018

Link here. Data points:

• Jupiter MLP, LLC
• one million bopd crude oil pipeline
• from Permian Basin to Brownsville, TX
• 670 miles long
• operational in 3Q20
• origination points near Midland, Pecos, and Crane, TX

I find it amazing how supportive surface owners in Texas appear to be compared to those in other states.

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Alice In Wonderland

I'm pretty sure I had read David Bohm's story some time ago, maybe more than once, but if I had, I completely forgot about. I was reminded when I was reading The God Problem by Howard Bloom today.

The story of David Bohm.

During World War II, the Manhattan Project mobilized much of Berkeley's physics research in the effort to produce the first atomic bomb. Though Robert Oppenheimer had asked Bohm to work with him at Los Alamos (the top-secret laboratory established in 1942 to design the atom bomb), the project's director, General Leslie Groves, would not approve Bohm's security clearance after seeing evidence of his politics (Bohm's friend, Joseph Weinberg, had also been suspected of espionage).

Bohm remained in Berkeley, teaching physics, until he completed his Ph.D. in 1943 by an unusual circumstance. According to Peat, "the scattering calculations (of collisions of protons and deuterons) that he had completed proved useful to the Manhattan Project and were immediately classified. Without security clearance, Bohm was denied access to his own work; not only would he be barred from defending his thesis, he was not even allowed to write his own thesis in the first place!"

To satisfy the university, Oppenheimer certified that Bohm had successfully completed the research. Bohm later performed theoretical calculations for the Calutrons at the Y-12 facility in Oak Ridge, which was used for the electromagnetic enrichment of uranium for the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

McCarthyism and leaving the United States After the war, Bohm became an assistant professor at Princeton University, where he worked closely with Albert Einstein. In May 1949, the House Un-American Activities Committee called upon Bohm to testify because of his previous ties to suspected communists. Bohm invoked his Fifth Amendment right to refuse to testify, and he refused to give evidence against his colleagues.

In 1950, Bohm was arrested for refusing to answer the committee's questions. He was acquitted in May 1951, but Princeton had already suspended him.

After his acquittal, Bohm's colleagues sought to have him reinstated at Princeton, and Einstein reportedly wanted him to serve as his assistant, but Princeton President Harold W. Dodds decided not to renew Bohm's contract. His request to go to Manchester received Einstein's support but was unsuccessful.

Bohm then left for Brazil to assume a professorship of physics at the University of São Paulo, at Jayme Tiomno's invitation and on the recommendation of both Einstein and Oppenheimer.

Thinking "Outside The Box" But Won't Go Anywhere -- October 19, 2018

I don't think this will go anywhere for any number of reasons, but I love it when folks think "outside the box." I wonder which general officer thought of this? LOL.

From an MDU discussion board:

The Trump administration is looking into using federal properties such as West Coast military bases to set up coal and natural gas export facilities after projects to build such infrastructure have run into challenges in California, Washington and Oregon,

The Associated Press reported Oct. 15, citing Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and two Republican lawmakers. Zinke, in an interview with The Associated Press, said the proposal would support U.S. allies and have important national security benefits.

The secretary said the U.S. could partner with private entities for coal and liquefied natural gas shipments through U.S. naval installations, as well as other federal properties. "I respect the state of Washington and Oregon and California," Zinke said. "But also, it's in our interest for national security and our allies to make sure that they have access to affordable energy commodities."

Random Update Of Recently Re-Fracked XTO Bang Well In Lost Bridge -- October 19, 2018

Updates

March 9, 2019: FracFocus still shows no re-frack. In addition, the "frack" report at the NDIC shows almost minimal re-frack; it almost looks more like a "re-work" rather than a re-frack.

Original Post 

Added to the list of wells of interest.

This well must have been re-fracked. FracFocus does not show re-frac data, however there is a sundry form received January 8, 2018, in which XTO says it intends to re-frack this well:

• 20520, 1,056 (original frack), XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19F, Lost Bridge, t7/12; cum 125K 8/18; this well has been off-line since 12/15, over two years off-line;

Recent production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2018	20	14563	14232	27548	21379	2083	19274
BAKKEN	7-2018	2	2110	2034	5957	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	0	0	941	0	0	0

 Neighboring "new" wells were fracked for the first time about the same time, for example, #31963.

A neighboring "old" well, #19187, remains off-line, taken off-line when these other wells were fracked.

Another neighboring "old" well, #17424, was off-line for about 8 months; is now just coming back on line.

Morning Note -- October 19, 2018

That natural gas shortage? Not to worry -- "everyone" reporting that "mild winter" will reduce US natural gas demand. From Argusmedia.

WTI / active rigs in North Dakota: a reader noted that at $50 oil, there were 50 active rigs in North Dakota; at $70, 70 active rigs. We're both hoping drillers step it up to 120 active rigs. LOL. 

WTI: back to the future -- US oil exports make WTI nearly 24-hour benchmark. Up about 1% in pre-market trading; trading at $69.35.

Crudehead over at twitter: oil pullback (price) will worsen in 1Q19 if Saudi doesn't "pull back."

***********************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today:

• 34218, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Howell-LW-156-91-1107H-3, Ross, no production data,
• 34077, SI/NC, XTO, Ravin 21X-15AXB, Siverston, no production data,
• 33559, 2,488, CLR, Mountain Gap 5-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages; 15.2 million lbs, t7/18; cum 65K after about one month;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2018	15	17153	17042	15226	20077	14851	5046
BAKKEN	7-2018	23	40069	40057	40885	52480	31859	20329
BAKKEN	6-2018	4	6389	6102	5748	7148	5677	1423
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	7	1137	1137	6549	1678	0	1678

Active rigs:

$69.35→	10/19/2018	10/19/2017	10/19/2016	10/19/2015	10/19/2014
Active Rigs	70	56	31	66	190

RNB Energy; part 2 -- NEXUS pipeline set to join natural gas traffic jam at Dawn hub.

Enbridge/DTE Energy’s 1.5-Bcf/d NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline saw its first natural gas flows this week, as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved partial service on the project, opening another nearly 1 Bcf/d of capacity from Appalachia’s Marcellus/Utica producing region to the Midwest. NEXUS marks the last big westbound takeaway project from the Northeast, except for the remaining pieces of Energy Transfer’s (ETP) Rover Pipeline. It also marks the escalation of gas-on-gas competition in the Midwest market, where U.S. Midcontinent and Canadian gas supplies are also battling it out for market share. Today, we take a closer look at the NEXUS project and its potential implications for the Northeast and Midwest gas markets.

The NEXUS project is a joint venture of Enbridge and DTE Energy that involves a combination of 255 miles of greenfield mainline pipeline and leased capacity on existing third-party systems to move Appalachian gas supply to consuming markets in northern Ohio, southeastern Michigan, as well as the Dawn Hub in Ontario.