Monday, April 29, 2019

The Decline And Slow Death Of California -- Zero Hedge -- April 29, 2019

For the archives.

We've talked about this -- the road-to-California -- many, many times.

Link here.

North Dakota / the Bakken is mentioned in this article.

The statistics are quite interesting.

Random thought: OXY's strong interest in Anadarko/the Permian? The "replacement" for its California assets spun off some years ago. An "unhealthy" rebound relationship?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Two Days Until May, 2019

Global warming hits North Dakota.

Crawfish Season

A night out with just Sophia and me. Sophia took both pictures. I could not take a photograph of her, for obvious reasons. LOL. Fish City Grill, Southlake Boulevard, Southlake, TX. The first pound of crawfish. Flavor: "Old Bay." $5.99 / pound.

The second pound of crawfish. Flavor: "Nitro."

Both photos by Sophia, age 4. iPhone SE.

Oroville Dam Spillway -- April 29, 2019

This may amount to nothing but a very credible reader has sent me a note suggesting it might be interesting to follow the Oroville Dam spillway for the next few months. For the archives.

Robert Osborne -- For The Movie Buffs

This is a very, very long interview.

Well worth it.

This is just part one of three parts. The first two parts are each about 30 minutes. The third part of three is fifteen minutes.

Measles -- 2019

See also: "measles."


April 29, 2019: WSJ -- measles cases top last week's 25-year high as outbreak worsens; outbreak shows no sign of slowing with 78 new cases in past week.

April 28, 2019: "deer in the headlights." -- California officials

January 24, 2018: Texas could be first state to experience serious measles outbreak -- this was in The Dallas News over a year ago

Measles -- 2019

Re-posting (April 27, 2019):
In 2000, measles was "eradicated" from the US. Screenshots to follow.

Ten years later, ObamaCare was signed into law on March 23, 2010.

Less than a decade later, this headline: this is the worst year for measles in the US since the disease was eliminated nationally in 2000. But that's CNBC so it may be fake news. Let's fact check:
  • Buzzfeed: measles outbreaks in the US are now the worst on record since the disease was eradicated (that word again: eradicated)
  • CDC, Atlanta, Georgia: US measles cases at highest level since elimination nearly 20 years ago, according to CDC (for ESL readers: "eradication" and "elimination" are very similar in meaning)
Again, thank you Mr Orrin Hatch, R-Utah. The data suggests this has little to do with the "southern surge."

  • measles eradication in the US
  • that Lancet article (Lancet is the most prestigious medical journal in the world)
  • Orrin Hatch
  • ObamaCare
  • social media
  • measles epidemic in the US
Occasional-Cortex is looking better and better every day.

Cost of measles vaccine:
  • MMRII: $75
  • but for the really good stuff, ProQuad: $214.37 (the vaccine includes the "chickenpox vaccine)
  • free to inmates and illegal immigrants

Saudi Aramco Sees Shale Gas As Kingdom's Next Energy Bonanza -- Bloomberg -- April 29, 2019

I was not particularly interested in this story but was surprised with the graphic:

For me, this almost seems like:
  • a desperation move;
  • a grasping for straws; but,
  • yes, huge incentive for Saudi Arabia to start going after natural gas.

COP To Announce 1Q19 Tomorrow -- April 29, 2019

COP will announce before market open, April 30.
  • ConocoPhillips is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Tuesday, April 30th, before market open.
  • The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.90 (-6.2% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $9.06B (+1.1% Y/Y).
  • Over the last 2 years, cop has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.
MDU will announce after market closes, April 30.
  • MDU Resources is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Tuesday, April 30th, after market close.
  • The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.23 (+4.5% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $1B (+2.4% Y/Y).
  • Over the last 2 years, mdu has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time.
Google with rare miss. Link here. Also at The Wall Street Journal --
  • revenue rises at slowest pace in three years
  • shares dropped more than 5% after hours
  • revenues: $36.3 billion vs $37.3 billion forecast
  • deep in the story: the EU fine of $1.7 billion
McDermott: first-quarter loss of $56 million; a loss of 39 cents/share. Link here.
  • guidance: $1.56/share for full year 
Weekly petroleum, EIA data, later this week. Z4 Research / Z-Man forecasts (from twitter):
  • crude: up 0.9 million bbls
  • gasoline: down 1.0 million bbls
  • distillates: down 0.8million bbls
  • strong gasoline demand
  • a drop in net imports 
Saudi production, from energyintel:
Giant Saudi field can pump 5 million b/d, Aramco exec says Tuesday, April 30, 2019. Saudi Arabia's Ghawar oil field can produce up to 5 million b/d if required, even though its capacity was put at 3.8 million b/d in Aramco's bond prospectus.

CLR 1Q19 Earnings

Press release:
  • earnings
    • net income: $187 million
    • EPS: 50 cents/share
    • adjusted net income: $217 million
    • adjusted EPS: 58 cents/share
    • forecast: 48 cents/share
  • production: 
    • 193,921 bopd average; up 18% y-o-y
    • 332,236 boepd average; up 16% over y-o-y
  • Bakken: 3 strategic step-out wells deliver excellent results
After market close: shares up 3%; over $1.50; trading just under $50

Reuters: CLR profit beats as higher production offsets weaker prices.
  • in the Bakken, shale hit a record 1.41 million bopd (all production; not just CLR)
  • average sales price, excluding hedging: fell to $35.56/boe, from $41.26 a year earlier
  • earned 58 cents vs forecast of 49 cents
  • guidance unchanged:
  • 190,000 - 200,000 bopd
  • 790 million cf - 810 million cf
  • reiterates budget of $2.6 billion
CLR: history here

WTI Slide Slows; MRO With Four New Permits; Fourteen New Permits -- April 29, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs64622986189

Four new permits:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Four Bears (McKenzie County)
  • Comments: MRO has permits for a 4-well pad in section 20-152-93, Four Bears oil field
Eight permits canceled:
  • EOG: five West Clark permits and three Riverview permits canceled, all in McKenzie County 
Fourteen permits renewed:
NP Resources (7):
Hess (3):
WPX (2):
Cobra Oil & Gas:
Rimrock Oil & Gas:

UK Bans Fracking; UK Fracking "Tsar" Resigns -- April 29, 2019

Link here at BBC.

I've lost the bubble on this, no longer following the story, but I believe the UK has been unable to complete two (2) fracks.

Just Incredible -- Making America Great Again -- April 29, 2019

First, notable bills passed by the 115th US Congress as of 117 days:

And we move on

If it weren't for Drudge, no one would notice --

Link here ---

Even I missed that the first time around: consumer spending -- biggest gain since 2009. Reuters. New record on Wall Street.

Democrat response: resist!

Buttigieg reponse: change course!

Beto: $5 trillion to combat climate change.

From Pew Research:

Nine Point Energy; Southwest Of Williston; North Side Of The River -- April 29, 2019

From the NDIC today. This is really quite remarkable -- in  a bit more than five months -- more than 107K ... I remember when when the Bakken boom began -- folks were excited when operators were producing 100K in 18 to 24 months. Now, it's typical for operators to hit 100K in less than six months. Amazing ...
  • 34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, 73 stages; 10.2 million lbs, Eightmile oil field, t11/18; cum 108K 3/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Same section:
  • 34783,
  • 34784,
  • 34785, see above;
  • 34786,
  • 34787,
  • 34788,

  • 36157,
  • 36156,
  • 36155,

Making America Great Again -- April 29, 2019

If it weren't for Drudge, no one would notice ---

Goldlilocks economy, March, 2019, data:
  • US consumer spending picks up;
  • US core inflation cools.
What's not to like?
US consumer spending, euphemistically called "purchases," make up more than two-thirds of the US economy: rose almost 1% in March, topping estimates --- and then get this, which was not in the headline -- the GAIN was the BEST GAIN in almost a decade.
The Democrats' response: resist!
Buttigieg's response: we need to change course.

Reuters suggests February's low number -- a "slow response" as they say -- was due to the government shutdown. Reuters just had to get that in there. The government shutdown? Wow, talk about a stretch. How long ago was that? LOL.

Personal income: rose 0.1% -- but that was less than forecast. Wage inflation? Hardly?

And then this, the Fed's preferred core-price gauge:
  • unchanged
  • forecast for a 0.1% gain
  • and, again, buried in the story and not the headline: the CPI gain was the slowest since January, 2018
The Fed? More and more it appears Jerome Powell doesn't want to be seen as an idiot. I'm not sure a rate cut is even needed any more based on new data. It's almost as if Powell missed an opportunity and is now trying to play catch up --- and it may not be needed.

From the linked Reuters article:
The signs of consumer strength follow Friday’s gross domestic product report showing consumer spending, the largest chunk of the economy, cooled in the first quarter to a 1.2 percent pace of gains. That was offset by boosts from inventories and trade that helped economic growth accelerate to a 3.2 annualized rate.
By the way, this is all very interesting.

At the Schwab seminar we attended last week, the speaker said these three things are now the major factors affecting the stock market:
  • fiscal policy: Congress out of control, but no one cares, and it's already baked into the stock market
  • monetary policy: no need to raise rates; more likely no action this year, but a rate cut is possible
  • trade policy: bark bigger than its bite.
When I asked about trade policy, it was pointed out that for the market in general, "trade" is much ado about nothing. The speaker said that the US economy is driven by consumer spending. The linked story at Reuters said exactly that: more than 2/3rds of the US economy is consumer spending. Trade policy with China will have very little effect on GDP or the market.

The real issue with trade, the speaker said, was espionage, spying, etc. Not "trade, per se."

Looking Forward To This Evening

Monday night, crawfish special, "Fish City Grill."

Crawfish boil; potatoes and corn. 

c. 2019: Fish City Grill.
Not only is it just plain cold, we can’t even warm ourselves up with a big platter of freshly boiled crawfish!
This winter has been one of the coldest that southern Louisiana has seen in several decades. Which means that it will be one of the latest crawfish seasons that most of us can remember. Many of the ponds are actually iced over—not a common sight in south Louisiana!
Check out this video of our crawfish supplier out at their ponds in Louisiana—those are sheets of ice on the water.
Cold weather keeps the crawfish burrowed down in the mud, and they will stay that way until the temperature of the pond water consistently gets above 50° (many ponds are currently at 40° or so—sheesh!). At that point they will begin moving and eating, however, most all of the crawfish are, well, babies. They are not big enough for harvesting.
I will be taking Sophia to Fish City Grill -- for crawfish. On special right now, at $8.99/lb, but on Mondays for the next couple of weeks, $5.99/lb.

Hopefully nothing interferes with our plans.

See also this link, and the February, 2019 post.

Of the many I looked at this, this might be one of the best:

It Is Almost May, Isn't It? -- April 29, 2019

Global warming smacks the Bakken. From KX News Storm Team -- more weather --

Hope springs eternal: $100 oil -- from Bloomberg -- the price of oil is not the issue. The volatility, the rate of change -- that's the real problem. If oil spikes to $100/bbl by the end of the summer, not so good for the global economy. If oil gradually climbts to $100/bbl over the next five years, awesome.

From an old post:
Births: it's well-known among moms that pregnant women (as opposed to pregnant men?) are more likely to go into labor during a full moon than any other time. Now, we know that babies tend to weigh less at birth when moms live near fracking sites. I honestly cannot believe The Wall Street Journal published this study. I read the headline and part of the first paragraph ... that was all I needed. Having said that, my guess is that moms with a history of delivering 11-pound babies will gladly move near a fracking site now that this study has been released.
Bitcoin: I haven't followed Bitcoin in months. It seems like a year since I last read anything about bitcoin. Apparently not all is well in paradise. Perhaps it's difficult to mine bitcoin during the winter. I don't know. And, of course, Hillary talked about putting a lot of miners out of work.

Ford Regains Bragging Rights -- April 29, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Ford: regains bragging rights. Ford regained its status as the #2 US car maker in market value, leaving Tesla Inc behind after a massive earnings beat that stoked a rally for Ford stock. Data points:
market cap:
  • GM: $56 billion
  • Ford: $40.7 billion
  • Tesla: $40.6 billion
Meanwhile, Tesla may seek alternative financing sources -- Reuters. Musk Melon speaks with forked tongue:
Tesla Inc said on Monday it could seek alternative sources of financing although it expects cash generated from its business to be enough to fund its investments and pay down debt for at least the next 12 months. [Memo to self: look up idiom, "too many irons in the fire."]
GM: will report tomorrow, Tuesday.

Pre-market trading: blah.
  • OXY: on news that Anadarko looking at OXY's bid and WTI below $63, OXY drops another $1.55, now trading pre-market at $59.76
  • SRE: off the radar scope; trading at $128; 52-week high, $130; paying 3%; will report May 7, 2019;
  • XOM: despite really bad earnings report, still holding at $80; pays 4%
They Must Be Reading The Blog

I posted this exact sentiment years ago and was probably one of the first to do so. From a 2017 posting:
Global warming? The house of cards is starting to fall. Garbage in, garbage out. Years ago, when I first started blogging, I placed popsicle sticks in a San Pedro harbor beach and monitored the Pacific Ocean sea level for five consecutive years. The popsicle had notches every one-eighth inch. I noted that the level of the Pacific Ocean rose an eighth of an inch one year but then dropped a quarter inch the following year, although that may have been an anomaly (as NASA would say) since it was clear that a dog had been playing with the popsicle stick after I found it lying horizontally on the beach. I will continue to monitor. Parking rates at the beach are upwards of $20/day so I may have to apply for a government grant to continue the research.
Now this from the 'net -- a bit old but I just found it --

Great Weekend At Copeland's

Nothing like a bit of "comfort food" after reading about global warming. LOL.

Sophia and I really had a great weekend. On Sunday we capped it off by visiting Copelands of New Orleans. We went around 3:00 p.m. just for dessert. She chose chocolate cake. Wow, she loved it.

The serving was big enough for a family a four. Seriously.

She ate all the ice cream and a small amount of the cake. We took what she did not eat home. Her two sisters and her dad loved the cake; we added more ice cream to it, and the cake served four. LOL.

Rumor: Anardarko Will Accept OXY's Bid -- April 29, 2019

Andararko: to accept OXY's bid. Rumor. Over at twitter. [Later: apparently more than just a rumor -- Reuters.]

Solar in North Dakota: for the archives. Harmony Project near Fargo.

Tussle: TSLA tumbles to two-year low after Musk-Cramer exchange. For the archives.

Rate cut? Fed may end up seeing 1995 - 1996 rate cuts as a template for today. Bloomberg.

Trump: like him, hate him. ignore him at your peril. He said he was going to get oil prices lowered. After his 3:00 a.m. call to Prince Salman WTI drops $3.00. This morning WTI remains under pressure. Support: if WTI hits $60, watch out below.

Surprising: Exxon's dismal refining results. No links; story everywhere.

Global warming: scrolling through iceagenow over the past several days -- amazing how cold it is worldwide; how long this winter has been; how much snow has fallen and is falling. Winter storm Xyler, late April, 2019, one for the record books.

Pet peeve: turns out "chalking" is violation of the US constitution.

Talk radio: huge fund-raising across the states for Trump; setting all-time records -- including Florida, New York, California. Texas particularly noteworthy: no Democrat has raised $1 million in Texas this year (so far). Trump: over the weekend: $5.6 million. Prior to that, $6 million, for a total of almost $12 million so far in 2019. In 2016, Trump got only $16 million for the entire year. May or may not be accurate; heard on talk radio; may have misheard, yada, yada, yada.

Talk radio: Boeing's 737 Max 8 story no quick fix.

Talk radio:  The Virginia Cavaliers, winners of this year's NCAA men's basketball tournament, won't be going to the White House to celebrate with President Donald Trump.

Avengers: Endgame -- $1.3 billion worldwide opening weekend. Our oldest granddaughter went. She absolutely loved it. Left her crying at the end. Said she couldn't stop crying for thirty minutes.

Morning Note Posted, Thirteen Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- April 29, 2019

Fitzsimmons on XOM: link here --
  • Investors hoping for a post-Tillerson turnaround (miracle?) at Exxon are likely hard to find after the company's dreadful Q1 EPS report.
  • New CEO Darren Woods' strength was supposedly the refining segment - where he rose through the ranks. Refining lost $256 million in Q1.
  • Worse yet, Woods and Exxon are taking none of the proven steps to unleash shareholder value (spin-off downstream assets or form an MLP for instance).
  • As a result, Chevron continues to be a superior option for those investors looking for an international integrated major oil company.
Worst refining performance in years: that's Bloomberg's take on ExxomMobil. 
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s worst refining performance in almost two decades may revive questions from analysts about the the so-called integrated model engineered by founder John D. Rockefeller and espoused by every CEO in the company’s 149-year history.
A surprise loss in a business line Exxon typically relies on to prop up more volatile units eroded first-quarter profit and cast doubt on the strength of the oil titan’s comeback from its annus horribilis in 2018.
In the last decade, when other oil companies spun off refining businesses to concentrate of drilling for crude, Exxon steadfastly adhered to the wells-to-retail model. The refining loss is particularly stinging for Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods, who rose through the ranks of the fuel-making side of the company rather than the oil-exploration business of his chief competitor for the top job, Senior Vice President Jack Williams, and predecessor Rex Tillerson.
First of many: Anadarko will be the first of many buys in 2019 -- Rigzone.  Clickbait -- it's simply a story of a single analyst saying this.

Huge Russian pipeline shutdown: crude oil contaminated with organic chlorides; corrosive; damaging to pipelines, refiners. One million bopd from the Urals into eastern Europe (Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic).  [Update, April 30, 2019: Poland releasing emergency oil stocks.]

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list this weekend, Monday -- Monday, April 29, 2019: 92 wells for the month; 92 wells for the quarter
  • 34552, 1,006, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, Parshall, t10/18; 70K 2/19;
  • 34551, 387, EOG, Austin 112-2919H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 31K 2/19;
  • 34498, 909, EOG, Austin 85-1929H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 52K 2/19;
  • 29799, SI/NC, Zavanna, George 19-30 4H, Stockyard Creek, no production data,
Sunday, April 28, 2019: 88 wells for the month; 88 wells for the quarter
  • 34499, 667, EOG, Austin 75-1929H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 63K 20/19;
  • 34496, 648, EOG, Austin 85-1929H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 84K 2/19;
  • 34464, 1,628, CLR, Peterson 6-29H, East Fork, t1/19; cum 35K 41 days;
  • 33879, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 3-29-32-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 35205, SI/NC, Slawson, Stallion Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 34861, SI/NC, MRO, Atkinson USA 31-17TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
Saturday, April 27, 2019: 82 wells for the month; 82 wells for the quarter
  • 34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 108K 3/19;
  • 35206, SI/NC, Slawson, Stallion Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 34862, SI/NC, MRO, Turkey Feet USA 41-17TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs64622986189

RBN Energy: the many factors influencing LPG export volumes.
The biggest driver of generally rising LPG exports is the widening gap between how much LPG the U.S. consumes and how much it produces — there’s simply too much of the stuff, and LPG-hungry European and Asian markets beckon. But month-to-month export volumes are often erratic, affected by a wide range of variables. Winter weather in Wisconsin. Steam cracker economics in Germany. Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant outages in China. Not to mention lingering fog or a tank-farm fire along the Houston Ship Channel, or the startup of a new NGL pipeline to the Marcus Hook terminal near Philly. Add to all this the export-volume spikes that may come later this year and in 2020 when new dock capacity comes online along the Gulf Coast. Today, we take a look at what drives the monthly ups and downs in exports.
hanks to the Shale Revolution and the burgeoning production of NGLs, the U.S. flipped from being a net LPG importer to a net exporter back in 2012. Since then, LPG exports by ship have soared — to a record 1.375 MMb/d so far in April, and further gains are likely as NGL output continues to rise and domestic demand for propane and butane (the “purity products” that make up LPG) remains close to flat on an annual basis. But it hasn’t been a smooth, steady rise in export volumes; there have been a lot of ups and downs along the way, most of them tied to the long list of variables that can affect how much LPG is loaded onto ships each day, week and month.
One important factor, of course, is how the prices of propane and butane in the U.S. compare with prices in key destination markets such as Asia and Europe. For example, the combination of rising propane prices in Europe in early April and rock-steady prices for propane at Mont Belvieu (the Texas NGL fractionation and storage hub) increased the arbitrage value (or “arb”) for propane exports from the Gulf Coast to Europe to more than 20 cents/gal (c/gal) by mid-April (blue line in Figure 1). At the same time, still-higher propane prices in Asia increased the Mont Belvieu-Asia arb (red line) to nearly 40 c/gal in recent days, pulling more propane from the Gulf Coast to that part of the world.