Monday, February 13, 2017

Global Warming Scam: A Big Story For 2017 - 2018 -- February 13, 2017


February 20, 2017: Europe switches to coal-powered cars in shadow of "dieselgate." More than 70% of BMW and Daimler cars made for the Europed market last year (2016) were diesel. The smog has gotten so bad, the "diesel" policy is being rescinded and folks are being pushed to EVs (coal-powered vehicles).
Original Post
The fact that this story is in The Boston Globe suggests that this is going to be a "big story" for 2017 - 2018: the global warming scam.
They observe changes in the atmosphere like astronomers study the stars, analyzing everything from air pressure to water vapor and poring over computer models to arrive at a forecast.
But for all their scrutiny of weather data, many meteorologists part ways with their colleagues — climate scientists who study longer atmospheric trends — in one crucial respect.
Many remain skeptical about whether human activity is causing climate change, as underscored by the recent departure of Mish Michaels from WGBH News.
Michaels, a former meteorologist at WBZ-TV, lost her job as a science reporter at WGBH’s show “Greater Boston” this week after colleagues raised concerns about her views on vaccines and climate change. She had previously questioned the safety of vaccines and the evidence that human activity was causing global warming, both widely held views in the scientific community.  
A lot of misinformation  and repeating of memes and tropes in the article, but this is likely just the first of many such stories.

DAPL Protest Costs To The State, Local Governments: $33 Million To Date -- February 13, 2017

From a reader, the cost to the state and local governments due to DAPL protests. Note that 92% of the arrestees were from out-of-state:

No automatic alt text available.

One Industry Where The US Is Catching China -- Fertilizers -- WSJ -- February 13, 2017

I was unaware that we were playing catch-up. From The Wall Street Journal:
  • US fertilizer production capacity increased by 24% last year
  • US output of urea surged by 10% boosted by a number of new and expanded plants in states from Iowa to Louisiana
  • meanwhile, China, the world's #1 fertilizer producer, saw its production slump by 7% and exports drop by more than a third
  • US shale revolution: accounts for the US surge in fertilizer production
  • yes: due to fracking and horizontal drilling for natural gas
Folks may remember that Hillary pledged to ban fracking if elected president. 

Much, much more at the link.

The Closer, T+24, February 13, 2017

Out of step? While the rest of the country (and the world to some extent) seem to face a glut of natural gas, California is asking its residents to conserve natural gas due to a "shortage." A reader sent me a copy of this insert in Californians' monthly utility bills:
SoCalGas has developed a voluntary call to consumers called a SoCalGas Advisory.
Every winter the demand for natural gas increases as we heat our homes and businesses.
This winter, we are facing limited availability of natural gas locally. That's why SoCalGas is asking all Southern Californians to work together to help conserve natural gas on certain days. When a SoCalGas Advisory is called, you can help Southern California conserve natural gas by:
  • lowering your thermostat to 68 degrees
  • waiting a day to use major natural gas appliances
  • washing with cold water, when possible
  • wearing cardigans on cold evenings
Okay, I made up that last one, the one about wearing cardigans.

Whatever happened to all that solar and wind energy that California has spent so much money on?


Shale production down, but estimates revised upward, from Twitter tonight:
EIA's DPR comes again with some upward revisions in Feb estimates: e.g. Eagle Ford and Bakken production estimates are revised higher. The report is available at this site.
OPEC cuts holding, from Twitter tonight:
Saudi reports big January oil supply cut. Also 2017 non-OPEC supply forecast raised.
Shale oil, from Twitter tonight:
Investor honeymoon with OPEC falters as shale drilling booms.
Futures mean squat, but:
  • after another huge day in the market, futures tonight are pretty much flat, down maybe 7 points for the Dow Jones Industrials (7:31 p.m. Central Time)
  • wow, at 9:09 p.m. Central Time, Dow futures have turned green, up 2 points
Whiners: losers unhappy Adele won. Again.
  • maybe if everyone got a "participation award" instead of awards "for winning," everyone would be happy
  • probably not
Oroville Dam:
  • state government was warned 12 years ago of potential dam disaster; did nothing
  • state wants to be sanctuary state; wants to defy Federal immigration laws
  • state wants Federal government to pay for Oroville Dam debacle
Confirmed: Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury
  • successful businessman with history of paying his income taxes 
  • 53 - 47; one Democrat voted for him; must not have gotten the Schumer memo
Confirmed: David Shulking, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
  • then: part of the problem
  • now: part of the solution
Roots: returning to -- Playboy

Like father, like son: Jerry Sandusky's son arrested on child sex charges 

Five Producing Wells Reported As Completed -- February 13, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3641137188183

One well coming off confidential list Tuesday:
  • 31606, 1,722, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 2B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t8/16; cum 145K 12/17;
Three new permits:
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Bear Den (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 27390, 918, EOG, Parshall 69-1820H, Parshall, t1/17; cum --
  • 30733, 978, Slawson, River Rat Federal 5-23-14MLH, Big Bend, t12/16; cum --
  • 31033, 1,909, Statoil, Vachal 3-34 5TFH, Alger, t1/17; cum --
  • 31034, 2,703, Statoil, Vachal 3-34 6H, Alger, t1/17; cum --
  • 31586, 754, Statoil, Jack 21-16 7TFH, East Fork, t1/17; cum --
  • 32265, 1,551, Whiting, Koala 44-31-3TFH, Poe, t1/17; cum --

31606, see above, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 2B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Here Come De Judge, Here Come De Judge -- February 13, 2017

  • nation of laws
  • Judge James Boasberg of the US District Court, Washington, DC, rejected legal challenge from North Dakota's Standing Rock Reservation and South Dakota's Cheyenne River Reservation
  • only 1,110 feet left to construct
  • another lawsuit from same groups yet to be heard by same court

Did I Read This Correctly? It Took The State Department Four Years To Review A 3-Mile Section Of An Existing Pipeline? -- February 13, 2017


October 17, 2017:  after five years of study, the US State Department finally reached a decision -- a permit was approved for a 3-mile section of pipeline.
The State Department has granted Enbridge Energy a presidential permit for the final piece of its project to boost the capacity of its Alberta Clipper oil pipeline.
Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge has been operating the pipeline, formally called Line 67, since 2010. The company upgraded its pumping stations in 2014 and 2015 to nearly double its capacity to 800,000 barrels per day.
But Enbridge needed the permit for the 3-mile segment that crosses the U.S.-Canadian border near Neche, North Dakota. After nearly five years of review, the State Department said Monday that issuing the permit serves the national interest.
Enbridge has been running Line 67 at full capacity by using a short detour into a parallel pipeline for crossing the border.
Line 67 carries Alberta crude across Minnesota to Superior, WI.
Original Post
This is what I posted earlier:
Alberta Clipper, story here, with byline from Bismarck, ND, data points:
  • four-year review
  • Enbridge Energy Partners
  • process began in 2012
  • goal: to transport 800,000 bopd on an existing 3-mile section of pipeline on the company's Alberta Clipper pipeline 
  • carries tar sand oil from Canada across northeastern ND and northern Minnesota to Superior, WI 
This is the rest of the story (linked above):
  • Alberta Clipper, AKA "Line 67" was completed in 2009
  • $1 billion project
  • the company wants permission to expand its current capacity on the line where it crosses the international border from 450,000 bopd to 800,000 bopd  
  • while waiting for approval, the company has been rerouting the additional bbls through a 1960s-era pipeline along the same route for three (3) miles
  • that pipeline already has a presidential permit
  • if the permit is approved by the US government, the Alberta Clipper would transport the additional oil without being re-routed, and the old pipeline would be rebuilt

Pipeline news is tracked here; at that link one can link to pipelines that interest me. The latter link was robust during the early Bakken boom (Bakken 1.0) but since then I have not kept it updated.

Filloon: Harstreet Oil -- A Permian Story

The Literature Page

Ruskin's Venice, Robert Hewison, c. 1978, 2000

A coffee-table book, less than 70 pages thick -- a very, very nice biography and art appreciation book: John Ruskin's life and his passion for Venice.

The author was the Slade Professor of Fine Art at Oxford University for 1999 - 2000. John Ruskin was first elected to that same post in 1869. He resigned the appointment ten years later, in 1879, but then resumed the Slade Professorship in 1883. He died in early 1900.

Born in 1819.

Victorian England: June 20, 1837 - 22 January 1901.

  • at a young age, fell in love with Venice
  • researched, drew, painted Venice
  • his "hero" J. M. W. Turner, the water colorist
  • unrequited loved for Adele Domecq, who spurned his advances
  • strange relationship with women
  • friendship with the pre-Raphaelites
  • first wife, Effie; marriage of six years never consummated; wife ran off with Ruskin's friend (Millais)
  • holiday with pre-Raphaelite John Everett Millais, Glenfinlas, Scotland; it was there that Effie fell in love with Millais 
  • in his 40's falls in love with a teenager; geographically-separated romance; ends in sadness; the teenage, mentally unstable, died "insane," 1875
  • Ruskin himself, highly religious in early life, turned away from religion; his teenage girlfriend thought he might be a pagan; he did turn to spiritualism to try to bring his teenage girlfriend back to life
  • Ruskin suffered frequent and long episodes of insanity in later age
  • as he aged, his personal disappointments multiplied
  • continued to love Venice to the end of his life
The wiki bio is very, very good, but interestingly does not mention his insanity (word search for madness, insanity, mental was unsuccessful).

Most famous books: Modern Painters; and, The Stones Of Venice.

Too Many Books, Too Little Time

The Political Page, T+24 -- February 13, 2017


February 22, 2017: protest camp must be evacuated. This is latest picture how environmentalists treat sacred land:

Original Post
How native Americans at Standing Rock Reservation treat their land. From The Washington Post.
“We’re still in the fight,” Dayrider said. “And we’ve accomplished something amazing. We woke the world up by showing how the oil companies treat the land and the people. We’re still standing. We’re still fighting.”
To compare how the activists treated sacred ground and how oil companies treat public and private land, see this post At the link, follow the links to some striking photos and video.

From The Washington Post, "today" at the Reservation:

The pads in the Williston Basin.


Surprise of the day! Out in Los Angeles, two new rail extensions and yet, Metro ridership declined again last year! This is truly amazing, and absolutely counterintuitive. The mainstream press has led me to believe that use of public transportation was increasing out in Los Angeles. Apparently not true. Data points:
  • two light-rail extensions to Azusa and Santa Monica opened last spring (2016)
  • the extensions connect the eastern and western reaches of Los Angeles County for the first time in decades
  • six months later, voters approved Measure M, by a large margin (72%): to increase their sales tax to expand the transit network again
  • a red-letter year for public transportation with one exception: ridership
  • trips taken on LA's sprawling bus and rail system dropped again by nearly 6%
  • subway and light-rail boardings increase by 4% -- but not enough to cancel out a decline in annual bus ridership -- falling 9% -- the lowest in more than a decade
  • since 2009: four new rail extensions, at a cost of more than $4 billion
  • since 2009: rail ridership soared 21%; but bus trips -- which represents much more ridership, dropped 18%
  • apparently LA's bus problems are mirrored in other US large cities
Lake Mead ...

... continues to rise (a dynamic link).


Over the weekend, doing some blogging with my assistant on the iPad doing some research.

Market And Energy News, T+24, February 13, 2017

The Market Close

 Apple shares close at all-time high. 

S & P 500 tops $20 trillion as Wall Street trades Trump.

Early Afternoon Trading

Dow Jones Industrials: up almost 200 points. This is absolutely insane. In a good way. 
  • new highs, 228: the banks; CNP, Deere, Honda, Norfolk Southern, Tallgrass Energy Partners,
  • new lows, 4 -- yup, just four
Mid-Morning Trading

The Dow Jones Industrials average is up 133 points, now over 20,400. This is clearly more than anticipation of "tax breaks." This is all about the Trump administration believe in making America great again, and it's not just based on "tax cuts":
  • cheap, accessible energy
  • foreign leaders beating a path to Washington to look for investment opportunities in the US
  • regulatory relief (especially in bank stocks)
  • tax breaks (only a small part of all of this)
  • ObamaCare -- whatever happens -- won't cost corporations more
  • immigration policy will have counterintuitive effect on minimal wages: all things being equal, by the end of 2017, certainly by 2018, we should see significant increase in average wages being paid in US
  • the "make-up" of the Federal Reserve Board will change in the next few months 
  • BREXIT; FREXIT?; Greece crumbling; Venezuela crumbling; bonds in Germany returning negative rates
 It Only Took Four Years

Alberta Clipper, story here, with byline from Bismarck, ND, data points:
  • four-year review
  • Enbridge Energy Partners
  • process began in 2012
  • goal: to transport 800,000 bopd on an existing 3-mile section of pipeline on the company's Alberta Clipper pipeline 
  • carries tar sand oil from Canada across northeastern ND and northern Minnesota to Superior, WI
US Crude Oil Production Forecast
With all the talk about the Permian recently, let's see what the EIA forecasts. Today, via Twitter, from 

In addition, the following graphic was posted by the EIA earlier this year, August 22, 2016:

Note the amount of dark blue (Bakken) vs the Wolfcamp (blue).


The Opening: Since the election: $2 trillion added. Dow easily hits 20,330. Up 2,000 points since the election.S&P hits a record high, 2,322. NASDAQ hits record high, 5,752.  Another triple-digit jump on the Dow today? [Yup, a few minutes later, up 103 points, though it has dropped back a bit.]

  • new highs, 184 in early trading: banks across the board; CNP, Deere, 
  • new lows, 0.

Futures: suggest opening at all-time high for all three indices. Again.

OPEC: must be in a world of hurt. Asking non-OPEC producers to decrease production. Story here.

Wind: North Dakota becoming a powerhouse. Story here.
Texas is the leader in producing wind energy -- last year, it became the first state to surpass a capacity of 20,000 megawatts. Of the 41 states that have wind farms, North Dakota ranked fourth in terms of installation of wind energy.

Here Come De Judge, Here Come De Judge, T+24 -- February 13, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3641137188183

RBN Energy: more Houston crude distribution infrastructure on the way.

Scott Adams: good example of our two-move reality

DAPL (again): here come de judge, her come de judge. "Full story" here. Judge, apparently, to hear case today. From The Bismarck Tribune:
A federal district court judge has denied a temporary restraining order sought to stop drilling of the Dakota Access Pipeline across the Missouri River/Lake Oahe.
Judge James E. Boasberg denied the order following Monday afternoon’s hearing in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., and required the pipeline company to provide updates Feb. 21 and every Monday thereafter on when oil will begin to flow through the river-crossing pipe.