Friday, October 6, 2023

Pads / Wells -- #40069 -- Graves — For A Reader With Question / Observation -- An Interesting Well -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45674B.
Locator: 40069B.

Updates

March 4, 2024: is this well about to be fracked? If so, will affect a number of other wells on that same pad, as well as neighboring wells.

  • Spud date for this well (from sundry form): 8/28/2023.  
  • FracFocus has no frack data for this well. 
  • From the NDIC file: 

 
In addition
, a neighboring horizontal has been taken off line:

  • 21959, 1,200, MRO, Elizabethh Strommen 24-12H, Killdeer, t7/12; cum 305K 11/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-202351756411851688456
BAKKEN11-20233010387666761049632235
BAKKEN10-2023307378601145810401232
BAKKEN9-20231131232616733223634
BAKKEN8-20233197211735081016715113
BAKKEN7-202331980855458102273699
BAKKEN6-20233095710164778937130
BAKKEN5-202331999990504101257225

Original Post

  • Map of well: 1280-acre spacing, sections 1/12-145-95; drilled north to south; straight south

File report as of October 10, 2023. On "drl" status, confidential.

Spud: 8/28/2023. Big rig, H&P 603.

  • surface site: 915 S 641 E section 35-146-95
  • kick-off point: 585 S 1133 E section 36-146-95 MD: 10422; TVD: 10316
  • proposed bottom hole: 175 S 520 W section 12-145-95 MD:21,385 TVD: 10756

A reader had a question. Here are the pads / wells in question, including 40069:

Week 40: October 2, 2023 -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45673TOPSTORY.

Top, top story:

  • Israel: declares war; Hamas invades; Iran all over this
    • for GOP: should Israel give up some land to stop the conflict? Maybe just negotiate surrender terms?

Top story:

  • Nobel prizes announced: includes mRNA (proxy for Covid vaccine)
  • rabies cure? A bridge too far for the GOP?
  • Kevin McCarthy kicked out as Speaker of the House.
    • 45 GOP reps now call it "grave injustice"
    • first time in US history for party in power to "kick out" its Speaker
    • McCarthy instrumental in preventing government shutdown

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues
  • US House refuses to provide funding that the president wanted for Ukraine
    • US House seems to support Putin's invasion of Ukraine
    • GOP apparently wants US to stay out of European conflicts; WWII was enough
    • MAGA: "not a dollar more for Ukraine"

Top international energy story:

  • Saudi Arabia and Russia say they will maintain production cuts

Top national non-energy story:

  • space wars: Amazon takes on StarLink (Elon Musk)
  • Biden directs money to re-start construction of unfinished "Trump" wall;
    • makes it sound like decision to stop building was misunderstanding of bureaucrats in charge of funding the wall; 
    • certainly doesn't express it as change in policy
    • Bill Maher weighs in
  • GDPNow remains at 4.9% for 3Q23 estimate;
  • mortgage rate trending toward 8%;
  • US stock market plunges
  • hard-landing anticipated by some/many/most analysts
  • renewable energy transition not going well at all
    • IMF says cost of transition not sustainable
    • rising interest rates killing solar, wind, and EV development 
  • it appears BRK / Warren Buffett is liquidating his HPQ position

Top national energy story:

  • WTI: drops the fastest it's dropped in recent memory -- goes from $90 to $82 almost overnight
  • XOM appears to be in talks to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) in $60-billion deal

Focus on frackingmost recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • first winter freeze warning for most off the state this past week

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • DAPL: it ain't over until it's over -- new EIS to include carbon cost
  • active rigs relatively unchanged; maxing out at 34, it appears

Geoff Simon's quick connects:

Bakken economy:

  • holding in there -- but active rigs running about 34

Commentary:

UAW Update -- Rope-The-Dopes -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45672UAW.

Whiting With A New Sanish Permit -- October 6 , 2023

Locator: 45671B. 

Rigs: 34.

WTI: $82.79.

One new permit, #40244;

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • Whiting has a permit for a Sanish Bay well, SENW 7-152-92, 
      • to be sited 2530 FNL and 1566 FWL;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 28829, 541, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-3H,
  • 28831, 636, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-2H
  • 39257, 779, Stephen Williston DBA SEG Williston, Greenbrier 15591W-0211-5H,
  • 39268, 4,454, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-35 5H,

Several Have Been Noticing -- Josh Is Losing All His Credibilty -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45670JOSH.

Link here.

We Discussed The Marcellus Earlier, Now The Uinta -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45669UINTA. 

Link here.

Wow, I Have So Much More In The Queue But I Have Simply Run Out Of Time -- Back Later -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45668B.  

Duolingo.

Reading. 

Biking.

***************************
The Book Page

Wow, wow, wow. I'm reading two incredibly good books -- plus other less incredibly good books.

The incredibly good books: The First Queen of England: The Myth of 'Bloody Mary," Linda Porter, c. 2007, though based on the condition of this book checked out from the Grapevine library it seems much, much older.

I spent much of yesterday drawing out the genealogy of Henry VII and Henry VIII -- I was most curious how Lady Jane Grey thought herself a legitimate heir of the British throne, and there it is, today, early in the book, Linda Porter mentions Charles Brandon. That alone is worth the cost of the book if one were to buy it. LOL.

The other book, published October 3, 2023, and just arrived this week from Amazon. I ordered it, sight unseen, prior to publication: The Maniac, Benjamin Labatut, c. 2023.

Either one, depending on one's interests, is a must-read. 

I just finished Lexington, the horse-book -- it is similarly a must-read. 

***********************
CDC Weekly Report

We are coming up on the all-important #40 week. This week: 39.

Link here.

I just received the 2023 Covid-19 vaccine a couple of weeks ago. I might stop by the pharmacy today and get either the RSV or "seasonal flu" shot.


Utica And Marcellus -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45667SHALEGAS. 

Link here.

John Mork, link here, and my alma mater.

Well-drilling operations in the Marcellus. Link here.

There's Always A Bull Market Somewhere -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45666INV. 



One Last Story And Then I Have To Move On -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45665SURGE.  

I find these stories reprehensible.

Chicago: 3,000 undocumented visitors overwhelms the city.

El Paso, Texas: 300,000 undocumented visitors every year.

Some hyperbole.

Not much.

Link here.

This is very, very interesting.

Why are undocumented tourists heading to NYC, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco?

The biggest reason: they have families or "connections" there.

Other reasons:

  • great benefits -- like housing;
  • sanctuary cities;
  • Lutheran and Catholic social services get $5,000 federal help / visitor / first year to help with getting individual / family settled. Needs to be fact-checked.
  • the pizza is much better in those four cities than anywhere else in the US. Pizza is the US food of choice.

Look at it from the perspective of the undocumented tourist who has just crossed the border into Texas. 

That one individual / family sees 200,000 other folks standing in line to apply for benefits / social services in El Paso.

Elsewhere, it's a line of 20. 

Hyperbole, again, but that's what the undocumented visitor sees or expects to see.

The word is out; those four cities are sanctuary cities: this does not simply mean that the cities won't turn over felons to the federal government. It means that these cities are responsible for caring for undocumented visitors, which includes housing. 

Where are Lutheran and Catholic services located? Everywhere, I suppose, but in the Midwest these agencies have broken the code. Midwest? Chicago, Detroit.

*******************
Later

It's amazing what one finds on the internet. 

Link here.



Americans Still Support Giving Autoworkers A 40% Pay Raise; 60% For New Hires -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45664UAW.  

Plans for next week to be announced later today: 



Rivian Update -- Current Quarter Losses -- Sales Will Be Slightly Lower Than Expected -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45663EVS.  

Updates

For the week ending October 6, 2023:


Original Post 

What's Rivian doing today?

Down another 2.6%.

Link here.

Market cap: about $20 billion before the "convertible bond" announcement.

Convertible bond announcement? $1.5 billion. 

1.5 / 20 = 7.5%.

I think this is the bigger story: "...sales in the current quarter will be slightly lower than expected. We're looking at a loss of just about 13%."

Very high gasoline prices should result in higher sales, so what's going on?

Interest rates are "killing" big ticket items. Especially cars. Perhaps homes / houses not quite as much.

For EV enthusiasts / investors / speculators, a must-read article.

First question: why would it be significantly different for other EV manufactures at same point on the time line, like Ford and GM. 

From the linked article:

Once seen as the most credible competitors to Tesla Inc., Lucid and Rivian entered public markets in mid-to-late 2021, when market enthusiasm for new EV-makers were high. Their valuations soared before the tables rapidly turned in 2022 as traders veered from riskier growth investments. Lucid is down 91% from its peak, while Rivian has lost 89%.

Severe supply-chain shortages and surging prices of battery raw materials plagued them further, but troubles have stuck with Lucid this year. The company has struggled to ramp up sales, selling around 1,400 units in both the first and second quarter. For the third quarter, it is estimated to have sold about 2,100 cars. Rivian’s sales, on the other hand, have grown significantly every quarter so far this year.

The risk that Lucid may default on its debt payments is also climbing. According to Bloomberg Intelligence credit analyst Joel Levington, the company’s default risk is now at 16%, almost four times the median for global automotive manufacturers. “Lucid’s near-term strength is its cash balance of $5.2 billion, but its cash burn of almost $7 billion through 2024 tempers views,” Levington wrote in a note on Wednesday.

At the same time, the firm is trying to find a foothold in a market where Tesla already rules. The company makes a luxury electric sedan that competes with Tesla’s Model S, along with several new models rolled out by more established global carmakers such as Mercedes-Benz Group AG, BMW AG, and Volkswagen AG’s Porsche and Audi brands.

“The problem lies with how Lucid positioned itself — going after a luxury, smaller volume market, while Rivian is targeting a bigger addressable market,” said Tom Narayan, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets. That said, Narayan noted that “Rivian isn’t out of the woods either, though it is now in a better place compared to Lucid.”

Meanwhile, GOEV fell 6% today.

Peak Oil? LOL. We're Not Even Anywhere Near Peak Coal Yet -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45662ENERGY.  

Without question, this is the best note I've ever gotten from a reader.

What an absolutely great note.

Now, think about this: XOM is well known to plan strategically -- 30 years into the future ... what's the big story today? XOM-PXD-$60 billion-Permian shale.

Less than a year ago, we were told that the Permian was dying, running out of oil. 

Google that NYTimes story:

Hiring -- Accelerated -- Misery Index Begins When -- Recession? What Recession? October 6, 2023

Locator: 45661JOBS. 

Link here.

Accelerated sharply.

Did not "maintain."

Did not "increase slightly."

Did not " accelerate."

What did "it" do? It "accelerated sharply. "Much more than expected."


All things being equal, this would suggest more Americans are doing better this month than they were doing last month.

Another rate hike bothers me not. I love to see Americans working. It beats the alternative.

Anticipating reports from ZeroHedge, Breitbart, Fox News, and Al-Jazeera.

The bond story: link here.


So much for that 60-40 mix. 

Except for "US Savings Bonds" decades ago, I've never invested in bonds. I've never understood them.

It will be fascinating to see what a "hard landing" looks like.

How long have "we" been talking about / predicting the next recession, a "hard landing"? I've long forgotten when this all started but it's been at least two years. We're now into 2024 -- when we will see a recession / "hard landing." It is really, really hard to time the market.

**************************
MAGA, Undocumented Tourists, And New Hires

One of my readers suggests that MAGA folks are noting that the number of undocumented tourists streaming across the board exactly equals the number of new hires, and that this cannot be a coincidence

Let's say that's accurate: that the number of new hires exactly equals the number of undocumented tourists streaming across the border.

What does this say about the work ethic of "Americans." There must be a lot of jobs they won't take? Like 336,000 such jobs -- in just one month. Quick: name those jobs.

What does this say about the "quality" / work ethic of those streaming across the border? They're willing to work despite overwhelming obstacles. They learn fast -- not just the job but also how to fit into the US economy. Smart folks.

What does this say about employers able to train these folks this quickly to handle 1st world economy jobs? Really, really dedicated, smart employers.

What does this say about the relationship between tech and all these new jobs?

Is there any other country in the world that has this "problem" and the means to manage it? I don't think so.

Now, shifting gears:

If one is not convinced this has anything to do with undocumented tourists, where are all these new hires coming from?

Wow, wow, wow! That's the real question.

The answer. There are at least three pools from which these new hires are coming.

One pool: we read about it in Forbes or some similar business magazine -- do you remember all those over 55-year-old seniors who dropped out of the work force / retired "early" due to Covid? "Everyone" said these folks would never return to the work force. In fact they have returned and they are returning to the work force -- for several reasons: they're bored at home; their spouses are driving them nuts; they're savings are running out; mailbox money (social security, pensions) is not keeping up with inflation; and, insert your reasons here.

The second pool: all those folks who have college loans to pay.

The third pool (similar to the first pool): spouses -- generally women / moms -- who are now able to return to work now that daycare centers were closed during Covid lockdowns.

These new hires? This has nothing / very little to do with undocumented tourists -- it's against the law in most states to hire them / if not illegal, major obstacles -- like lack of a social security number, just to name the first obstacle. Lack of transportation to get to their jobs.

mRNA -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45660mRNA.


**********************************
Covid Library

Moonshot: Inside Pfizer's Nine-Month Race to Make the Impossible Possible, Dr Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO, Pfizer, c. 2022. 

The Vaccine: Inside The Race to Conquer the Covid-19 Pandemic, Joe Miller with Dr Özlem Türeci and
Dr UÄŸur Åžahin, c. 2022. Link here.

The Genetics Of Corona Virus, link here

Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022. Link here.

Spike: The Virus vs. The People - the Inside Story – Sage Scientist’s Revelatory Covid Memoir -- Jeremy Farrar -- October 15, 2022. Link here.

Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live, Nicholas A. Christakis, c. 2020. 614.5924CHR. Link here.

Wuhan Diary: Dispatches from a Quarantined City, Fang Fang, translated by Michael Berry, c. 2020. 614.5924FAN.

Covid-19: The Pandemic That Never Should Have Happened And How To Stop The Next One, Debora MacKenzie, c. 2020.  614.5924MAC. Credentials: a journalist, with history of "working as a biomedical researcher. Book jacket does not say what her degree was in and where she got her degree.

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story, Michael Lewis, c. 2021. 614.5924LEW. Credentials: best-selling author, to include: The Fifth Risk; Moneyball; Liar's Poker; The Big Short.

Fifth Risk: written during the first half of the Trump administration, The Fifth Risk framed the federal government as a manager of a portfolio of existential risks; natural disasters, nuclear weapons, financial panics, hostile foreigners, energy security, food security, and on and on and on. [He could have included other risks: loss of free speech; loss of rights to own guns; loss of right to privacy and on and on and on.]
This may be one of the most interesting of the lot. Told by a great story-teller. No index. Will have to find out for myself his thoughts on Fauci and gain-of-function.

So Much Going On Today -- I Won't Be Able To Keep Up -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45659B.   

Many readers writing me; it will take time to get back to everyone. A nice problem to have.

Overwhelming number of issues / stores to cover. Just the tip of the iceberg:

Energy stories:

  • very clear that renewable energy is really, really struggling --
  • it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil -- WTI has reset to new trading range: $80 - $85
  • XOM-PXD
  • New England winter
  • OPEC+: Saudi struggling; Russia doing well; 
  • demand-destruction due to pricing; Josh over at twitter loses all credibility

Political stories:

  • Trump seems stronger than ever, politically; "kingmaker" in the US House?
  • the "wall" -- huge, huge, huge story -- sanctuary cities are in a panic
  • geopolitics: a Lindbergh-Nazi moment for MAGA-Ukraine?

Economy:

  • mixed signals
    • GDPNow: still at 4.9% for 3Q23 estimate;
    • everything else suggests a very, very hard landing in 2024 -- election year

Investing:

  • Warren Buffett gets below 10% on HPQ -- very, very important milestone; link here;
  • we're not going to see any more reports of Buffett sales of HPQ in real-time
  • XOM-PXD: who's next?
  • XOM's cash surges
  • perhaps the most interesting "item" popping up for small mom/pop retail investors: tax-loss harvesting -- 
    • once this was available only to the multi-millionaires; 
    • now much more available; may have started with Schwab; now I see it everywhere
    • as usual, some questions come up
    • is "tax reduction vs growth in net income" two different "methods" of investing? I honestly don't know; beginning to explore.

Science / medicine:

  • Nobel prizes -- more to discuss
  • Iranian woman today -- Peace Prize
  • Covid / "seasonal flu" -- weekly data to be released today -- getting close to week when it all begins

***********************************
Back to the Bakken


WTI: $82.28

Sunday, October 8, 2023: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 589 for the year
39650, conf, Ovintiv, Fleck 150-99-6-7-9HLW,
39337, conf, CLR, Hegler 10-13H,
38838, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-6H,

Saturday, October 7, 2023: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 586 for the year
None.

Friday, October 6, 2023: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 586 for the year
39649, conf, Ovintiv, Fleck 150-100-1-12-8H,
38840, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-6H,

RBN Energy: a new report on upstream consolidation in the Permian and other key plays. Archived.

Even now, three-plus years after the start of the oil and gas industry’s biggest consolidation in a quarter century, hardly a month goes by without another major M&A announcement. Just this week, Civitas Resources said it will acquire acreage and production in the Permian from Vencer Energy for $2.1 billion. The primary drivers of these deals — many of which are valued in the billions of dollars — are clear. Among other things, E&Ps are seeking scale and the economies of scale that come with it. They also have come to believe that it makes more sense to grow production through M&A than through aggressive capital spending. And, for some producers not yet involved in the all-important Permian, acquiring even a smaller E&P there provides a foothold to build on. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our newly released Drill Down report on the past 12 months of upstream M&A activity in the U.S. oil patch.
So far, the 2020s have been a period of almost unprecedented consolidation within the oil and gas industry. Not since the late 1990s has U.S. merger-and-acquisition activity among producers been so frenetic. Back then, a plunge in crude oil prices spurred mega-deals that helped to form many of today’s supermajors and large E&P independents: Exxon joined with Mobil, BP with Amoco and ARCO, Chevron with Texaco, Anadarko with Union Pacific and Kerr McGee, ConocoPhillips with Burlington Resources, and Devon with Mitchell Energy and Ocean Energy.