Saturday, March 12, 2016

How Saudi Arabia Overplayed Its Hand -- New York Times -- March 12, 2016

The way this New York Times article is written I cannot summarize it easily. All I will post right now is this:
And then there is Saudi Arabia itself.
All the evidence suggests that Saudi officials never expected oil prices to fall below $60 a barrel. But then they never expected to lose their sway as the swing producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. Despite wishful statements from Saudi ministers, the kingdom’s efforts last month to make a deal with Russia, Venezuela and Qatar to restrict supply and push up prices collapsed.
We've talked about this several times. 

$40-oil is of no help to Saudi Arabia but is a lifeline for the US shale oil industry.

$50-oil is of no help to Saudi Arabia -- when they need $100-oil - but it may be enough to "save" the US shale oil industry.

$60-oil will only slow Saudi's hemorrhaging of cash, but Saudi needs $100-oil, they say. They may get by on $85-oil but .... 

As I said to the reader who sent me this New York Times story: 
Saudi Arabia (and Obama in other arenas) will have caused more human suffering than anything we've seen outside of the major wars (WWI, WWII, Korean War, Vietnam War) in the last 120 years.
Outside of Russia, Saudi, and the US, the rest of the oil-producing countries that set their budget on the price of oil, are basket cases.

****************************
More Snow For The Kennedy Grandkids

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:
Several feet of new snow is expected in the Sierra Nevada mountains this weekend as another El NiƱo-influenced storm moves into Northern California.
In what some are calling a "March Miracle," the Sierra have been hit by a series of powerful storms this month. That's important because the Sierra snowpack is a key source of water for California, which is in its fourth year of a drought.
ADVERTISING
The storms have boosted the snowpack and replenished reservoirs. 
Heavy showers pummeled L.A. and Ventura counties Friday afternoon, and forecasters said there was a chance of some light rain in some areas of Southern California through the weekend.

North Dakota Crude Oil Production -- Some Tables -- March 12, 2016

In a long note like this with lots of numbers that were manually typed in, there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. This list is only the "top" oil field producers in the Bakken. 

Comparing December, 2015, production with January, 2016, production, in decreasing order based on total production the field in December:

Field
Pool
December 2015
Dec Wells
December  Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change Nov-to-Dec
January 2016
Jan Wells
January Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change Dec-to-Jan
Sanish
Bakken
1,558,779
594
2,624
-4.65%
1,610,948
596
2,703
3.35%
Parshall
Bakken
1,189,523
417
2,853
-2.18%
1,122,403
421
2,666
-5.64%
Antelope 
Sanish
942,611
157
6,004
4.77%
942,578
157
6,004
-0.00%
Alger 
Bakken
836,717
305
2,743
3.21%
768,741
308
2,496
-8.12%
Blue Buttes
Bakken
790,622
133
5,945
-4.40%
783,914
135
5,807
-0.85%
Grail
Bakken
760,765
159
4,785
-14.59%
840,089
159
5,284
10.43%
Siverston
Bakken
730,950
213
3,432
8.03%
711,959
214
3,327
-2.60%
Corral Creek
Bakken
722,677
140
5,162
10.31%
701,919
141
4,978
-2.87%
Reunion Bay 
Bakken
703,872
149
4,724
0.85%
691,065
146
4,733
-1.82%
Van Hook
Bakken
697,982
181
3,856
10.74%
599,489
178
3,368
-14.11%
Banks
Bakken
680,867
166
4,102
6.19%
613,342
165
3,717
-9.92%
Alkali Creek
Bakken
663,364
134
4,950
3.10%
651,321
138
4,720
-1.82%
Heart Butte
Bakken
617,786
170
3,634
-8.65%
628,965
170
3,700
1.81%
Truax
Bakken
567,821
163
3,484
6.98%
572,302
165
3,468
0.79%
East Fork
Bakken
496,022
96
5,167
23.75%
525,808
99
5,311
6.00%
Big Bend
Bakken
438,105
113
3,877
3.05%
185,184
113
1,639
-57.73%
Little Knife
Bakken
409,603
137
2,990
10.40%
385,377
137
2,813
-5.91%
Robinson Lake
Bakken
396,752
163
2,434
-21.84%
493,399
168
2,937
24.36%
Eagle Nest
Bakken
394,563
77
5,124
-1.16%
341,524
77
4,435
-13.44%
Sand Creek
Bakken
390,332
74
5,275
-5.50%
382,506
74
5,169
-2.00%
Bailey
Bakken
388,091
145
2,676
0.07%
407,915
148
2,756
5.11%
Brooklyn
Bakken
386,728
79
4,895
-0.93%
373,852
82
4,559
-3.33%
Charlson
Bakken
371,561
105
3,539
5.07%
367,584
105
3,501
-1.07%
McGregory Buttes
Bakken
369,742
82
4,509
14.25%
377,350
84
4,492
2.06%
Murphy Creek
Bakken
364,938
205
1,780
-3.11%
367,595
205
1,793
0.73%
Mandaree
Bakken
357,646
77
4,645
34.74%
332,227
77
4,315
-7.11%
Spotted Horn
Bakken
354,969
66
5,378
-7.60%
408,309
66
6,187
15.03%
Westberg
Bakken
350,361
88
3,981
-3.10%
357,108
90
3,968
1.93%
Camel Butte
Bakken
348,454
34
10,249
17.92%
346,584
34
10,194
-0.54%
Hawkeye
Bakken
335,653
94
3,571
6.33%
351,401
96
3,660
4.69%
Camp
Bakken
321,348
115
2,794
4.80%
388,494
115
3,378
20.90%
Cedar Hills
North Red River B
284,369
117
2,431
0.75%
288,362
117
2,465
1.40%
Poe
Bakken
278,413
83
3,354
-2.60%
259,042
83
3,121
-6.96%
Elidah
Bakken
276,592
53
5,219
0.93%
239,513
53
4,519
-13.41%
Pershing
Bakken
264,899
39
6,792
45.33%
320,227
39
8,211
20.89%
Lost Bridge
Bakken
262,393
53
4,951
-1.36%
266,840
53
5,035
1.69%
Stockyard Creek
Bakken
259,031
72
3,598
6.24%
308,770
76
4,063
19.20%
Dollar Joe
Bakken
249,070
93
2,678
10.33%
222,525
93
2,393
-10.66%
Baker
Bakken
245,310
64
3,833
3.80%
361,687
69
5,242
47.44%
Moccasin Creek
Bakken
244,181
57
4,284
-6.70%
240,143
57
4,213
-1.65%
Chimney Butte
Bakken
241,548
73
3,309
3.66%
216,666
73
2,968
-10.30%
Clear Creek
Bakken
239,975
74
3,243
1.54%
223,672
74
3,023
-6.79%
Cedar Hills
South Red River B
234,265
150
1,562
3.50%
237,464
151
1,573
1.37%
Keene
Bakken/Three Forks
230,590
50
4,612
12.13%
185,636
50
3,713
-19.50%
Long Creek
Bakken
224,394
27
8,311
6.81%
242,123
27
8,968
7.90%
North Tobacco Garden
Bakken
215,393
42
5,128
46.93%
195,643
43
4,550
-9.17%
Crazy Man Creek
Bakken
209,135
44
4,753
-13.71%
224,303
44
5,098
7.25%
Tyrone
Bakken
203,864
56
3,640
29.42%
190,459
56
3,401
-6.58%
Todd 
Bakken
202,878
56
3,623
-2.41%
188,025
56
3,358
-7.32%
Bear Den
Bakken
199,990
41
4,878
11.76%
244,669
44
5,561
22.34%
Beaver Lodge
Bakken
199,467
72
2,770
5.98%
146,554
73
2,008
-26.53%

Comparing the change in total production on a percentage basis month-over-month, ranked in descending order. The fields near the top did add new wells which would account for the huge percentage increases. However, without adding new wells, other fields had significant increases: Camp (21%); Pershing (21%); Spotted Horn (15%); and, Grail (10%).

Field
Pool
December 2015
Dec Wells
December  Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change Nov-to-Dec
January 2016
Jan Wells
January Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change Dec-to-Jan
Baker
Bakken
245,310
64
3,833
3.80%
361,687
69
5,242
47.44%
Robinson Lake
Bakken
396,752
163
2,434
-21.84%
493,399
168
2,937
24.36%
Bear Den
Bakken
199,990
41
4,878
11.76%
244,669
44
5,561
22.34%
Camp
Bakken
321,348
115
2,794
4.80%
388,494
115
3,378
20.90%
Pershing
Bakken
264,899
39
6,792
45.33%
320,227
39
8,211
20.89%
Stockyard Creek
Bakken
259,031
72
3,598
6.24%
308,770
76
4,063
19.20%
Spotted Horn
Bakken
354,969
66
5,378
-7.60%
408,309
66
6,187
15.03%
Grail
Bakken
760,765
159
4,785
-14.59%
840,089
159
5,284
10.43%
Long Creek
Bakken
224,394
27
8,311
6.81%
242,123
27
8,968
7.90%
Crazy Man Creek
Bakken
209,135
44
4,753
-13.71%
224,303
44
5,098
7.25%
East Fork
Bakken
496,022
96
5,167
23.75%
525,808
99
5,311
6.00%
Bailey
Bakken
388,091
145
2,676
0.07%
407,915
148
2,756
5.11%
Hawkeye
Bakken
335,653
94
3,571
6.33%
351,401
96
3,660
4.69%
Sanish
Bakken
1,558,779
594
2,624
-4.65%
1,610,948
596
2,703
3.35%
McGregory Buttes
Bakken
369,742
82
4,509
14.25%
377,350
84
4,492
2.06%
Westberg
Bakken
350,361
88
3,981
-3.10%
357,108
90
3,968
1.93%
Heart Butte
Bakken
617,786
170
3,634
-8.65%
628,965
170
3,700
1.81%
Lost Bridge
Bakken
262,393
53
4,951
-1.36%
266,840
53
5,035
1.69%
Cedar Hills
North Red River B
284,369
117
2,431
0.75%
288,362
117
2,465
1.40%
Cedar Hills
South Red River B
234,265
150
1,562
3.50%
237,464
151
1,573
1.37%
Truax
Bakken
567,821
163
3,484
6.98%
572,302
165
3,468
0.79%
Murphy Creek
Bakken
364,938
205
1,780
-3.11%
367,595
205
1,793
0.73%
Antelope 
Sanish
942,611
157
6,004
4.77%
942,578
157
6,004
-0.00%
Camel Butte
Bakken
348,454
34
10,249
17.92%
346,584
34
10,194
-0.54%
Blue Buttes
Bakken
790,622
133
5,945
-4.40%
783,914
135
5,807
-0.85%
Charlson
Bakken
371,561
105
3,539
5.07%
367,584
105
3,501
-1.07%
Moccasin Creek
Bakken
244,181
57
4,284
-6.70%
240,143
57
4,213
-1.65%
Alkali Creek
Bakken
663,364
134
4,950
3.10%
651,321
138
4,720
-1.82%
Reunion Bay 
Bakken
703,872
149
4,724
0.85%
691,065
146
4,733
-1.82%
Sand Creek
Bakken
390,332
74
5,275
-5.50%
382,506
74
5,169
-2.00%
Siverston
Bakken
730,950
213
3,432
8.03%
711,959
214
3,327
-2.60%
Corral Creek
Bakken
722,677
140
5,162
10.31%
701,919
141
4,978
-2.87%
Brooklyn
Bakken
386,728
79
4,895
-0.93%
373,852
82
4,559
-3.33%
Parshall
Bakken
1,189,523
417
2,853
-2.18%
1,122,403
421
2,666
-5.64%
Little Knife
Bakken
409,603
137
2,990
10.40%
385,377
137
2,813
-5.91%
Tyrone
Bakken
203,864
56
3,640
29.42%
190,459
56
3,401
-6.58%
Clear Creek
Bakken
239,975
74
3,243
1.54%
223,672
74
3,023
-6.79%
Poe
Bakken
278,413
83
3,354
-2.60%
259,042
83
3,121
-6.96%
Mandaree
Bakken
357,646
77
4,645
34.74%
332,227
77
4,315
-7.11%
Todd 
Bakken
202,878
56
3,623
-2.41%
188,025
56
3,358
-7.32%
Alger 
Bakken
836,717
305
2,743
3.21%
768,741
308
2,496
-8.12%
North Tobacco Garden
Bakken
215,393
42
5,128
46.93%
195,643
43
4,550
-9.17%
Banks
Bakken
680,867
166
4,102
6.19%
613,342
165
3,717
-9.92%
Chimney Butte
Bakken
241,548
73
3,309
3.66%
216,666
73
2,968
-10.30%
Dollar Joe
Bakken
249,070
93
2,678
10.33%
222,525
93
2,393
-10.66%
Elidah
Bakken
276,592
53
5,219
0.93%
239,513
53
4,519
-13.41%
Eagle Nest
Bakken
394,563
77
5,124
-1.16%
341,524
77
4,435
-13.44%
Van Hook
Bakken
697,982
181
3,856
10.74%
599,489
178
3,368
-14.11%
Keene
Bakken/Three Forks
230,590
50
4,612
12.13%
185,636
50
3,713
-19.50%
Beaver Lodge
Bakken
199,467
72
2,770
5.98%
146,554
73
2,008
-26.53%
Big Bend
Bakken
438,105
113
3,877
3.05%
185,184
113
1,639
-57.73%

 Comparing average well production, in descending order, January data, by field. So, for example, in Camel Butte field, there 34 producing wells in both December, 2015, and January, 2016. In January, each well, on average, produced 10,194 bbls of oil. Take a look: Pershing oil field, Baker oil field, and Camp oil field.

Field
Pool
Dec Wells
December  Oil/Well/Month
Jan Wells
January Oil/Well/Month
Camel Butte
Bakken
34
10,249
34
10,194
Long Creek
Bakken
27
8,311
27
8,968
Pershing
Bakken
39
6,792
39
8,211
Spotted Horn
Bakken
66
5,378
66
6,187
Antelope 
Sanish
157
6,004
157
6,004
Blue Buttes
Bakken
133
5,945
135
5,807
Bear Den
Bakken
41
4,878
44
5,561
East Fork
Bakken
96
5,167
99
5,311
Grail
Bakken
159
4,785
159
5,284
Baker
Bakken
64
3,833
69
5,242
Sand Creek
Bakken
74
5,275
74
5,169
Crazy Man Creek
Bakken
44
4,753
44
5,098
Lost Bridge
Bakken
53
4,951
53
5,035
Corral Creek
Bakken
140
5,162
141
4,978
Reunion Bay 
Bakken
149
4,724
146
4,733
Alkali Creek
Bakken
134
4,950
138
4,720
Brooklyn
Bakken
79
4,895
82
4,559
North Tobacco Garden
Bakken
42
5,128
43
4,550
Elidah
Bakken
53
5,219
53
4,519
McGregory Buttes
Bakken
82
4,509
84
4,492
Eagle Nest
Bakken
77
5,124
77
4,435
Mandaree
Bakken
77
4,645
77
4,315
Moccasin Creek
Bakken
57
4,284
57
4,213
Stockyard Creek
Bakken
72
3,598
76
4,063
Westberg
Bakken
88
3,981
90
3,968
Banks
Bakken
166
4,102
165
3,717
Keene
Bakken/Three Forks
50
4,612
50
3,713
Heart Butte
Bakken
170
3,634
170
3,700
Hawkeye
Bakken
94
3,571
96
3,660
Charlson
Bakken
105
3,539
105
3,501
Truax
Bakken
163
3,484
165
3,468
Tyrone
Bakken
56
3,640
56
3,401
Camp
Bakken
115
2,794
115
3,378
Van Hook
Bakken
181
3,856
178
3,368
Todd 
Bakken
56
3,623
56
3,358
Siverston
Bakken
213
3,432
214
3,327
Poe
Bakken
83
3,354
83
3,121
Clear Creek
Bakken
74
3,243
74
3,023
Chimney Butte
Bakken
73
3,309
73
2,968
Robinson Lake
Bakken
163
2,434
168
2,937
Little Knife
Bakken
137
2,990
137
2,813
Bailey
Bakken
145
2,676
148
2,756
Sanish
Bakken
594
2,624
596
2,703
Parshall
Bakken
417
2,853
421
2,666
Alger 
Bakken
305
2,743
308
2,496
Cedar Hills
North Red River B
117
2,431
117
2,465
Dollar Joe
Bakken
93
2,678
93
2,393
Beaver Lodge
Bakken
72
2,770
73
2,008
Murphy Creek
Bakken
205
1,780
205
1,793
Big Bend
Bakken
113
3,877
113
1,639
Cedar Hills
South Red River B
150
1,562
151
1,573