Sunday, April 8, 2018

Clearing Out The In-Box -- April 8, 2018


Later, 9:52 p.m. Central Time: why I love to blog. See #1 and #7 below. Now this from twitter --

It's hard to believe, but Hillary is actually hoping that Trump fails on this initiative. Sad. As President Trump would say. But she's not the only one. At least three-quarters of the US Senate and three-quarters of the US House hope Trump fails. Really sad. Twenty years from now, we will look on Trump's four years as something incredibly special and it was too bad his contemporaries did not "get it." Their personal politics took precedence over what was best for the US. Sad.

Original Post 

Because of family commitments, I am way behind. I apologize. I may not get to all the e-mail that has accumulated in the past six hours. So, some notes:

1. Politics: This is going to make a lot of folks question my sanity, but that's fine. The more I read, the more I listen, the more I understand President Trump. I haven't found anyone that can explain Trump as well as Scott Adams. And one cannot compare Rush and Scott Adams; they are in two different arenas. Rush is totally in the "political" arena. Scott Adams is in the "persuasion" arena. I will leave it at that. I don't watch any television except for sports and Big Bang Theory re-runs.

2. Sports: Due to family commitments I missed the Texas Speedway NASCAR race today -- I drove right by the Speedway today twice -- going/coming to soccer practice for our middle granddaughter. Looks like I missed a great race. Curious how Keselowski feels about being taken out of the race through no fault of his own.

3. Sports: I also missed the Masters. From what I saw, it most likely was one for the record books, one of the best Masters ever. The fourth (and last) round should have been "match play" between Rory McIlroy and Patrick Reed. It turned out Rory must have had too much adrenaline: he bogeyed three holes on the front nine, including a par 5. In these tournaments, one "never" wins if one doesn't get birdies on par 5's. On the back nine, two more bogeys. Are you kidding me? Not only was that bad for McIlroy, but it was really, really bad for Patrick Reed. Reed had no competition and, therefore, wasn't playing his best. Reed had three bogeys including two in the first six holes. Bad, bad, bad. Out of nowhere, Jordan Spieth shoots eight under and came close -- but then he bogeys the last hole. Hmm, hmm, hmm --- quite a day.

4. Global warming: I learned a lot this past week. Both Williston and Tioga (both in the Bakken) set new all-time record low temperatures. And, yes, a lot depends on where the thermometers are placed. I've talked about this before. In the big scheme of things, very few thermometer locations exist even in the most population-dense part of the world; there were even fewer thermometers centuries ago; and, most of the earth still does not have thermometers or satellite coverage. Garbage in, garbage out. I think a climatologist can get any outcome she wants. And that's just recording the temperatures; nothing about analysis.

5. Worst news of the day: Diamond and Silk, two African-American women, and pro-Trumpers, have been labeled "unsafe to the Facebook community." So, expect them to be shut down. Amazing. But the folks saying they hope Trump dies are still getting their coverage and keeping their social media sites. Pretty scary.

6. Irony: a fake caravan will allow President Trump to do exactly what the pro-illegal-immigration folks feared most: he will militarize the southern frontier. Yes, the military is highly restricted in what it can do, but the national guard will bring more to the party than a lot of folks think.

7. North Korea: the tea leaves suggest China and North Korea are serious about calming the nuclear rhetoric. This is very similar to what happened along our southern frontier. Trump militarized the sea lanes around China -- something China really did not want to see happen. China wants Trump out of their waters, and the only way it's going to happen is if Kim Jong Un decides he wants to become part of the civilized community.

8. Mideast. This is a big, big story and it seems -- because it's so quiet -- that it's off everyone's radar scope. It's hard to believe that this "quiet period" will last to the end of 2019.

9. Tesla. Twelve more months. If by the end of 1Q19 Tesla is still maintaining some kind of production schedule, the company will be a going and growing car company and all the naysayers will be proved wrong. A lot of folks thought that would happen one way or the other by the end of 1Q18 -- but we were wrong.

10. The stock market: I could not be happier. Scott Adams talked about this in his "periscope" earlier today. He and I are on the same sheet of music.

I can now delete a lot of e-mail. I like to answer all e-mail but I won't be able to do it today. The notes above pretty much cover everything that was sent to me.

Oh, one more thing.

11. California's gasoline prices: this article will let you down. It's a "mystery" story and unfortunately the mystery was not solved. A huge "thank-you" to the reader who sent it to me. The article started out great; and with a lot of data points along the way, it was a great article -- for about two-thirds of the way through. And then, poof ... it sort of just dwindled away. No there there. I have to re-read the entire article again -- I think there is a simpler explanation for the mystery -- but the author did not mention it -- if he did, I missed it. The mystery may not have been solved, but it eliminates a few suspects. And maybe that's as good as it gets.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 8, 2018

Friday, April 13, 2018:32915, 584, Oasis, Hagen Banks 5198 13-6 11B, Banks, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, mesh, large/ceramic, a huge well; 55K in one month; 40K in another month; t11/7; cum 152K 2/18;
32586, 1,840, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 11-19H, Elm Tree, t11/17; cum 162K 2/18; 61 stages; 10 million lbs; mesh, large, medium, a huge well; 50K in one month; 43K in the next month;

Thursday, April 12, 2018:
33740, 58 (no typo), Lime Rock Resources, High Ridge 8-5-1H-160-90, Dimond, 50 stages; 10 million lbs; t10/17; cum 19K 2/18;
33729, SI/NC, Hess, EN-VP And R-154-94-2536H-9, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Wednesday, April 11, 2018:
33788, 172 Lime Rock Resources, Ward Hill 20-29-1H-160-90,  Dimond, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, a nice well; t10/17; cum 50K 2/18;
33730, SI/NC, Hess, EN-VP And R-154-94-2536H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,
33517, 828, Nine Point Energy, Trinity 155-102-23-14-7H, Squires, 50 stages; 10 million lbs; mesh; medium/large, a nice well; t10/17; cum 95K 2/18;
32759, 673, Oasis, White 5198 12-6 7B, Siverston, a very nice well; 50 stages; 10 million lbs, mesh/large/ceramic; t10/17; cum 106K 2/18;
32758, 685, Oasis, White 5198 12-6 6T, Siverston, a nice well; Three Forks B1; frac data not yet posted; t10/17; cum 89K 2/18;

Tuesday, April 10, 2018:
33731, SI/NC, Hess, EN-VP And R 154-94-2536H-11, Alkali Creek, no production data,
33518, 1,157, Nine Point Energy, Trinity 155-102-23-14-8H, Squires, 50 stages; 10 million lbs; mesh/medium, a nice well; t10/17; cum 97K 2/18;
33098, 1,858, CLR, Monroe 10-2H1, Banks, 4 sections, Three Forks B1, 82 stages; 10.6 million lbs; "plug and perf completion; pump 25% 100-mesh & 75% (40/70) natural white sand, started off slow, but 45K in fifth month; t10/17; cum 101K 2/18;

Monday, April 9, 2018:

Sunday, April 8, 2018:
33732, SI/NC, Hess, EN-VP And R-154-94-2536H-12, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
32982, 1,730, Whiting, Frick 24-8-1HU, Banks, 4 sections, 35 stages; 8 million lbs, large/small, huge well; see this recent post; t10/17; cum 108K 2/18;
32807, 1,448, CLR, Ryden 7-24H2, Jim Creek, 4 sections, Three Forks B2; 71 stages; 10.7 million lbs, a very nice well; the Oakdale and Ryden wells are tracked here; t12/17; cum 53K 2/18;
30252, 1,823, CLR, Monroe 9-2H, Banks, 4 sections; nice well; 63 stages; 16.2 million lbs, mesh/large; t1/18; cum 30K 2/18;

Saturday, April 7, 2018:
31125, SI/NC, Enerplus, Calico 148-93-31D-30H, McGregory Buttes, no production data, 

A Reader Noted There Was No Easter-Themed Google Banner This Year -- The Reader Was Not The Only One -- April 8, 2018

Google search and this screenshot:

Apparently another community was unhappy Google did not provide an Eid banner this year. I will let others sort that one out. Time to move on.

Idle Chatter -- Flat Space, Secretaries, And A Chair -- April 8, 2018

The most important "thing" we have in our small (two-bedroom; 1,140-square feet) apartment is "flat space." My wife and I have projects of some nature going on all the time. We need a lot of "flat space": tables, buffets, desks, etc. In a very limited space, one solution is a fold-down desk. We recently purchased the 2018 Stickley "collectible": a secretary.

Here's our secretary:

In this weekend's edition of The Wall Street Journal, in the "Off Duty" section: "The State of the Secretary."
The secretary desk has waited patiently for us to notice its clever beauty again. Once rendered obsolete by the space demands of hulking desktop computers and printers, the quaintly compact desks with enclosed storage were stockpiled in attics and used-furniture store rooms. But the stars have aligned to bring these almost-antiques back to relevance.
“These vintage pieces are more modern than a desk these days,” said Los Angeles architect Raun Thorp. As more people store documents on a cloud and reduce their computer hardware to a laptop, big working surfaces have become the relics. “Secretaries are like a tiny multiuse building in a room,” said Ms. Thorp, who noted that their height can bring an unexpected dynamism to a room.
The modest scale of most vintage models, neither very deep or wide, makes them especially versatile. Richmond, VA, designer Janie Molster said of the chinoiserie-style piece she bought in her 20s, “I have used it in a bedroom, dining room, living room, kitchen and currently my foyer.”
The secretary’s lower drawers can store linens, photo albums or clothes; shelves above, usually enclosed by glass doors, can house books or display anything from pottery to Matchbox cars.
Rachel Cannon, a designer in Baton Rouge, LA, recently tucked one in a stair landing to create a miniature home office. Kari McIntosh, a designer in San Mateo, CA, used a contemporary West Elm model in a nursery-cum-office in her own two-bedroom apartment
I was deeply disappointed that Stickley Furniture was not mentioned in the WSJ article. I'm sure there are other furniture makers just as good but unlikely none better. 

From the linked WSJ article:

On another note, completely unrelated, having nothing to do with "flat space" or small apartments, just something my wife noted. Also, from The WSJ, on Friday:

That chair! We actually have that chair! The one at the front center of the photo above. I forget when/where we bought it. We had to have bought it while in the states prior to 1983, either in California or North Dakota. It's been with us through our thirteen years overseas with the US Air Force. It folds "flat." Not completely flat, but flat enough to lean up against the wall when not needed to save space.

Later: a big "thank-you" to a reader -- a link regarding the folding chair above

Winners, Losers. West Coast Ports, East Coast Ports. European Commodity Traders. Always A Bull Market Somewhere. -- April 8, 2018

So many story lines. Not ready for prime time, but something to think about over Sunday coffee.

We will start with this one. The other day, this was my post at the "daily note" page:
April 2, 2018, T+34: Chinese - US trade war starting to ramp up. Agricultural products? California? Pork? Iowa? Both states overwhelmingly anti-Trump. Probably just coincidental. Tesla shares plummet.
Now another example. Add two more anti-Trump states to California and Iowa. Washington state and Oregon. This article from Reuters:
Escalating tensions between the United States and China have triggered a flurry of U.S. soybean purchases by European buyers, in one of the first signs that trade tariff threats lobbed between the world’s top two economies are disrupting global commodity trade flows.

News of the sales, confirmed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday, helped to underpin benchmark Chicago Board of Trade soybean prices <0> after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap tariffs on an additional $100 billion of Chinese goods.

The USDA said 458,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans were sold to undisclosed destinations, which traders and grains analysts said included EU soybean processors such as the Netherlands and Germany.

If the entire volume is confirmed to be going to the European Union, it would be the largest one-off sale to the bloc in more than 15 years.

Traders and analysts said the unusual trade flows were likely to continue in the near term, benefiting U.S. Gulf Coast shippers and likely hurting exporters in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the No. 2 bulk grain outlet that relies heavily on Chinese demand
For the Pacific Northwest ports it's a double or triple whammy. The Pacific Northwest doesn't like seeing coal or oil go through their ports either; they prefer to see oil and coal go through Charleston, South Carolina, or from the ports along the Gulf coast.

Another story line, of course, is this: even if China bans US agricultural products there are plenty of other customers. Again, as stated earlier, in the big scheme of things, the trade imbalance between China and the US is huge, and markedly in China's favor. Imagine an unemployment rate of 8% in the US. Now imagine an unemployment rate of 20% in China. We've talked about this before.

And then, this, of course. China still needs the agricultural products. They have a choice: they can pay the US tariff and continue to ship directly from the US, or they can pay the spot price through a middleman/middle-country. Does one really think that the "largest one-off sale to the EU" is actually destined for Europe? Once the grain is in the cargo ship, it can sail anywhere.

As Jim Cramer likes to say: there's always a bull market somewhere. In this case, it looks like the European commodity traders have found a bull market. Buy "less expensive" grain and soybeans from the US, and re-sell it to the Chinese.

The Tesla Page
What World Domination Looks Like

Over at twitter. It's a bit of an eye-test, but if you zoom in on the screenshots, I think you can make out the verbiage.

Note: the Tesla bulls often compare Tesla (now) with Apple when it was struggling to compete with Wintel and Microsoft, back in 1984. The Tesla bulls believe that Tesla, a technology company, will eventually do what Apple did.

Among the many, many "wrong" analogies with that picture is this: Wintel/Microsoft had a virtual monopoly. Other than Apple, there was no one competing with Microsoft. Sure, there were other "brands" -- Dell, for example -- but they all sold Wintel/Microsoft products, just packaged/configured/sold/shipped differently. But in the end, it was all Wintel with Apple, maybe getting 2% of the non-commercial /non-business market.

The automotive industry is entirely different. There are dozens of different car makers around the world -- they are not all GM or all Toyota or all Mercedes or Land Rover. And they can all build EVs. BEVs. PHEVs. ICEs. FCVs.

One word: DeLorean.

It Was Real, But Will It Be "Official"? -- April 8, 2018


Later, 11:53 a.m. Central Time: on a serious note, a reader pointed out that some caution is required here before calling this a new record. The reader pointed out very, very correctly that in North Dakota, and I am sure in many places around the world, temperatures can vary over just a few miles. The reader noted that his father remembers being told by another farmer how cold it was in Epping when his father said that was impossible because it was so warm in Williston. Both farmers were probably correct; Epping is just a few miles northeast of Williston. So, it should be noted that the temperature April 7, 2018, was taken at the Tioga Municipal Airport, a location that probably did not exist in 1936. The 1936 temperature would have been recorded elsewhere than the airport.

Which, of course, begs the question, which I won't ask regarding all the temperatures the global warming folks "believe" in. Remember: when it comes to "global warming," we are talking about less than one or two degrees and computer models are projecting climatic changes based on tenths-of-degree changes in temperature.

Original Post 

A huge "thank you" to Don for sending me this link, noting another "low-temperature" record set in the Bakken. This record was not subtle, link here:

Noting that it was much warmer in Williston, ND, today (17 degrees Fahrenheit) I fact-checked the Weather Underground data. Apparently the thermometers at the Tioga airport did record that record-setting  temperature but there is some question whether it will be accepted by the US weather-people. NOAA tweeted: