Buzz -- Posting Evening Of Thursday, February 13, 2025

Locator: 48552BUZZ.

The buzz -- headline without links. It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.

Geiger:

Apple: Tim Cook to announce "new member" of the family on February 19th. Betting: iPhone SE. My current phone is an iPhone SE --- much interest ... to say the least ...

India: after discouraging remarks in the Oval office about trade with India, it's being reported that Modi and Trump aim to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion in five years. 

For reference, in 2023, same figure for US / Mexico was $807 billion. Canada/US: $923 billion. China and the US, 2024: $582 billion.

TikTok: returns to Apple, Google app stores. Biggest story trending on social media; business networks. Trump signed EO on his first day in office to extend a decision on TikTok for an additional 75 days, to April 5.  

CHIPS Act: things on hold. Trump will re-evaluate proposed payments to various chip companies. Watch for winners and losers. Tea leaves: Intel (INTC) will be a winner. 

Federal agencies: ordered to fire probationary employees.

Firing federal employees: very, very tricky; very, very difficult. Trump is getting it done four different ways. Sort of like his strategy on deporting illegal immigrants. Trump remains the smartest man in the room.

They must be reading the blog: Trump 2.0 is closer to JFK. Kamala and today's Democratic Party are closer to Dick Cheney. In the US Senate, Schumer is another Mitch McConnell; and in the US House, Obama's doppelgänger is Jeffries. Schumer and Jeffries: bad, bad optics.

Nvidia: will delay its RTX 5070 until after AMD's reveal.

Papa Johns: stock soars on report of potential takeover.

IRS: Trump confirms that DOGE will be auditing the IRS. The betting is that it will be sooner than later. Thursday afternoon, 1:27 p.m. ET, February 13, 2025 -- it's being reported that DOGE employees just entered the FBI building.

Schwab: names new head of digital assets as company eyes crypto opportunities.

The Fed: JPow is out no later than the end of 2026. Trump is looking to name Ron Paul to replace JPow.

Roku stock soars, after earnings report.

Does this feel like a recession?

Porsche: to cut 1,900 jobs in Germany after EV demand slumps.

NOG: 4Q24 Operational Update; Announces $40 Million Bolt-On Acquisition -- February 13 ,2025

Locator: 48551NOG.

Link here. 

Bolt-on acquisition:

• early 2025
• signed definitive agreement to acquire 2,275 net acres
• $40 million
• Upton County, TX, in Midland Basin
• back-of-the-envelope:
• $40 million / 2,275 acres = $18,000 / acre -- which seems to be an incredible price to pay in the Permian

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Eggs

Americans may be priced out of eggs but here in north Texas, no shortage of right-priced beer. Tariffs on German beer would be unfortunate but, in the big scheme of things, a minor inconvenience.

Four New Permits And Director's Cut -- December, 2024, Production Data -- February 13, 2025

Locator: 48550B.

Director's Cut, released today, for December, 2024, production data. Link here.

• oil: 1,191,174 bopd,
• down from 1,225,303 bopd in November, 2024

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End-of-Day Report

WTI: $71.38

Active rigs: 34.

Four new permits, #41611 - #41614, inclusive:

• Operators: Kraken (2); BR (2)
• Fields: Wheelock (Williams); Elidah (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• BR has permits for two more Sivertson wells, SWSE/SESE 21-151-97, 
• to be sited 1815 FNL and 995 / 1027 FWL;
• Kraken has permits for two Roundtop wells, NWNE 36-156-98, 
• to be sited 573 FNL and 2310 / 2343 FEL.

Two permits renewed:

• Silver Hill: Dolores (#36052) and Orris (#36053), Gros Ventre oil field.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 36837, 2,527, HBU Muller 31X-12E2, Williams County;

Buzz -- February 13, 2025

Locator: 48549BUZZ.

RFK, Jr. -- confirmed.Holy mackerel, that was fast. Every Democrat voted against "a Kennedy." LOL. Hell just froze over.

• Comment: there's a bigger story here when nominations are being confirmed this fast.
• confirmation votes for both Gabbard and RFK, Jr., were held earlier than the press said the votes would be held; 
• in RFK, Jr.'s case and Gabbard's case, the votes were held early in the day and in neither case was JD Vance's tie-breaking vote required. In both cases, Mitch McConnell was the only GOP senator to break ranks.
• clearly, it was the Hegseth vote that changed everything -- or at least marked the change; why things changed so fast? No idea.
  

The buzz -- headline without links.

• Apple - Alibaba.
• CVS surges.
• DOJ sues NY (or NYC).
• TSMC - INTC.
• Turkey - Syria?
• New Zealand retreats on global warming / climate change.
• is the Ukraine war coming to an end?
• Honda-Nissan end their merger talks. It's over.
• Musk
• Musk loses lawsuit; will pay Trump at least $10 million.
• Musk keeps his job
• has Musk redefined the "government employee"?
• has Trump made Musk "the US czar" without calling him "the US czar"?
• this is fascinating.
• armored vehicles
• US State Department to buy almost a half-billion-dollars worth of armored vehicles from an unnamed company in official documents.
• could DOD be looking at similar deal?
• whose budget is bigger? State Department or DOD?
• hey, what about ICE (Homeland Security) buying armored vehicles?
• China - coal - 2024: sets all-time records.
• US economy: Goldilocks for investors --
• price of stocks hit bottom
• jobs report: unemployment drops -- whoo-hoo
• office workers being told to return to work
• corporations cutting jobs to save money
• inflation essentially flat, steady; room to run
• federal judge says "yes" to Trump's executor order regarding government employees 
• Denmark makes bid to buy California
  
• on Facebook (META): number of queries for DC criminal attorneys surge

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Cocktail Chatter

Quick! What's a "rush light"?

And where did the idiom "burning the candle at both ends" come from? What does it mean?

The answers to that question (or both questions) explains why Thomas Edison took an interest in "the light bulb."

Link here.

Update On Suriname -- RBN Energy -- February 13, 2025

Locator: 48548B.

Education: I'm no apologist for Department of Education but there's no way the US ranks #40 in a list of 40 top countries for education. Link here. I think you can get any number / any ranking you want. FactCheck.org here. 

Regardless of the ranking, there is much more to the story. Much more.

The peak of the bell-shaped curve may have peaked for the US some years ago, and may have actually moved to the left (bad) but does it really matter? I'm most interested in the top quartile or maybe even the top decile. And, to a great extent, I'm interested in the bottom quartile and the bottom decile.

Global warming: just three weeks in office, President Trump has crushed global warming! The Linton, ND, record had held for 55 years; Bismarck, ND, was a bit more stubborn.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.09.

New wells:

• Friday, February 14, 2025: 27 for the month, 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year,
• 40949, conf, Five States Operating Company, LLC, BC 1-21H,
• 40752, conf, CLR, Taney 4-23H,
• 40365, conf, Enerplus, LK Quilliam 147-97-14-23-7H,
• 40364, conf, Enerplus, LK Quilliam 147-97-14-23-6H,
• 39841, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 6-32H,
• Thursday, February 13, 2025: 22 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 67 for the year,
• 40843, conf, CLR, Catron 3-26H,
• 40398, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred North 17-15 3H,
• 39842, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 7-32H1,

RBN Energy: Cellulosic Biofuel industry rebounds with focus on biogas, heavy-duty trucking.

A primary objective of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) implemented in 2007 was to stimulate the production of at least 16 billion gallons/year of gasoline and diesel made from cellulosic biomass, or non-food crops and waste biomass like corn stalks, corncobs, straw, wood, wood byproducts and animal manure. But the vision of making gasoline from wood chips never materialized and today’s cellulosic biofuel is a whole different ballgame. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the evolution of cellulosic biofuels and the D3 Renewable Identification Number, aka the D3 RIN.