Saturday, July 16, 2016

Random Update On White Butte's Panzer Pad In Antelope Field -- July 16, 2016

For those interested, the wells on this pad are coming back on-line. Two wells on this 3-well pad were taken off-line in late 2015; one of those two wells is back on line.
  • 21387, IA/2,502, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC/Slawson, Panzer 4-20MLH, t4/14; cum 30K 5/16;
  • 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC/Slawson, Panzer 2-20MLH, t4/14; cum 82K 5/16; back on status as of 5/16;
  • 21385, 2,221, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC/Slawson, Panzer 1-20MLH, t4/15; cum 105K 5/16;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Motley Fool Update On The Permian -- July 16, 2016

Link here.
With output totaling more than 2 million barrels per day, the Permian is the second largest oil field in the world behind Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field.
That said, it has quite a way to go to catch up given that Ghawar produces 5 million barrels per day, which is more than 5% of global oil output.
The Permian is also believed to be second to Ghawar in recoverable resources.
According to analysis from leading Permian driller Pioneer Natural Resources, the Spraberry/Wolfcamp formations alone could hold 75 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) recoverable resources, or slightly less than half of Ghawar's nearly 160 billion boe. That said, most other analysts peg that number in the 20 billion barrel range.
For perspective, some suggest that the Bakken has 500 billion bbls of OOIP. At a recovery rate of 7%, that works out to 35 billion bbls. 

Six of the oil-producing formations in the Permian, southeast corner of New Mexicoa and huge western half of Texas:
The five largest operators in the Permian, acreage and boepd:
  • Chevron: ~ 2 million net acres, 125,000 
  • OXY: ~ 1.5 million net acres, 255,000
  • Apache: ~ 1.7 million net acres, 171,000
  • Pioneer Natural Resources: ~ 800,000 gross acres, 125,000
  • Concho Resources: ~ 650,000 net acres, 143,000
Back in 2014, in the Bakken:
  • CLR: 1.2 million net acres; 109,000 boepd
Back in 2012, in the Bakken:
  • COP: 600,000 net acres; 26,000 boepd
A Note To The Granddaughters

The youngest granddaughter, Sophia, age 2, is at home in the pool with her dad.

I am with the oldest granddaughter, Arianna, age 13, at a water polo tournament. In the first game, her team is going to take a lopsided win. At the halfway point, her team leads 10 - 0. [At the end of the third period, with one period left to go, the score is a lopsided 18 - 0.] Arianna is playing on an "older" team where she is not a starter, but in this game she is getting a lot of playing time. [Later, Sunday, July 17, Arianna scored several goals over the weekend. Her team took first place on Sunday. She was awarded a medal; this is her first First Place medal.]

The middle granddaughter is at a soccer tournament in Dallas. This is a big, big deal for her.

There are multiple organizations and opportunities in the US to play soccer. One system is the "major league soccer" "farm system." Dallas has a professional soccer team, the FC Dallas team. They have an "amateur" organization that takes players starting about twelve years of age through at least eighteen years of age, and some will go on to play for FC Dallas as professionals or with other MLS teams.

In early July of every year, there is a "signing" day on which all the young players try out to make one of the teams. Teams are put together based on age. For example, the "05" teams can have players born in 2005 or later, though it is very, very rare to have younger members on any team.

Our middle granddaughter, Olivia, was born in 2006 and thus she is referred to as an "06."  There were difficulties getting the teams "put together" this year due to movement of coaches. The parents work hard to get their sons/daughters with the best teams possible. Olivia's great "06" team was broken up by the parents in an effort for their children to get on the "best" teams possible. It caused a lot of angst among the kids to be separated after playing together for the past two or three years.

Our middle granddaughter was heavily recruited and when it was determined that the local "06" team was not going to work out, an "05" coach -- a highly sought-after coach/team -- recruited Olivia and her closest friend. They "signed" and the two "06's" are the youngest team members (and the only "06's") on the "05" team.

In the first game of the tournament today, Olivia was in her usual (and favorite) position: midfield. She transitions quickly and is very, very good at defense, not quite as good at offense. In that position, she also naturally takes responsibility as "captain" when on the field, because she is in the middle of all the action.

This particular coach does not yell at the kids, telling them what to do, which is somewhat unusual. Instead, he "tells" Olivia what he expects, and then she tells the rest of the team. She is much like a player/coach. And again, she is an '"06" on a team of kids one year older than she is who have been playing together as a team for quite some time. Olivia and her friend are brand new to this team.

Today, the team was losing 1 - 0 and indications were things were not going to get better. The coach called Olivia over to tell her she was going to move to the forward position. Olivia asked the coach if he knew that things would only get worse for the team. The coach replied that she, Olivia, was the only one on her team moving the ball forward. So near the end of the game, Olivia played offense.

Olivia went in, scored a goal, and prevented a loss. The game ended as a tie, 1 - 1.

For Insomniacs, The British Open Is Wonderful

The Golf Channel (NBC) is televising the entire British Open except for those short periods on Saturday and Sunday when the senior network, NBC, televises several hours during prime time.

Starting Thursday morning, local time, about 1:30 a.m. I tuned into the British open. There is a six-hour time difference. 2:00 a.m. here is 8:00 a.m. in Scotland. I watched the first three rounds from about 2:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. (Thursday, Friday, Saturday); and, then went back to bed until about 7:30 a.m. to catch the rest of the British Open, until early afternoon.

Absolutely fascinating. The weather is cooperating, although Friday afternoon was a bit rainy and windy and cool and uncomfortable, I assume.

Phil Mickelson led at the end of the first two rounds, eleven under, with only one player anywhere near him.

He finally faltered ever so slightly on the third round and finished in second position on the leaderboard going into the fourth round, Sunday morning. Henrik Stenson, Swedish, is one stroke ahead of Phil. The others are five or six or more strokes behind.

For years I did not care for Mickelson. There was no reason; I just didn't care for him. But over the past twelve months or so, I've really changed my position on Phil. I really appreciate him now. I appreciate him for the fact that he seems to play every weekend; he never seems to have an excuse not to play. He is a workhorse; dependable and persistent and tenacious. It doesn't seem like he's involved in a lot of off-camera drama.

Assuming that The Open championship comes down to Phil vs Henrik, I give the edge to Henrik. I suppose I do that to prepare myself for a great letdown if Phil manages to lose. Henrik's big advantage to Phil: Henrik has never won the Claret Jug; Phil has. Phil says he is playing much more relaxed because he doesn't "need" to win since he's won it once, whereas for Henrik, age 40 (see first comment; I had originally, incorrectly said, 44), this may be his last chance. I don't buy into that. Phil might say that going into the tournament, but if it's down to those two, tied going into the back nine in the final round, Phil will be as competitive as ever.

Phil has a history of going rogue when he starts to fall behind, and that generally devolves into a death spiral. The Troon is absolutely unforgiving and going rogue there is a recipe for disaster. Phil also has a bit of a history of letting his emotions get the better of him -- true for all these athletes -- but Henrik just seems a bit more ... Swedish?

So, all things being equal, I give the edge to Henrik.

By the way, Henrik is "naturally" left-handed but golfs "right-handed"; Mickelson is "naturally" right-handed but golfs "left-handed" according to the commentators. 

[If the weather is great in the morning and then turns ugly in the afternoon, all bets are off. If the weather determines the winner, someone eight strokes behind the leaders now could end up winning.]

How Is The Oldest "Still Active" Well In North Dakota Doing? -- July 16, 2016

I believe #35 is the oldest active well in North Dakota. A "cut and paste" from an earlier post:
Two payzone well, total production, ~ 2.2 million bbls since 1951; still active
  • 35, 503/PNA, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit H-310, s8/51; t4/52; Madison, 216K; PNA
  • 35, 263, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit H-310, t3/60; Devonian, 2.08 million bbls; still active; almost 1,500 bbls monthly, 8/14; around 1,000 bbls monthly in 2015; Went inactive 12/13; back on line as of 8/15;
  • Note: #35 is the oldest well in North Dakota still producing; all but two or three wells earlier than #35 were dry.  Well #2 was completed in 1923; well #1 was completed in 1916, in Ward County; it tested positive for trace oil. The Clarence Iverson well that started it all was drilled in 1951. 
Here's the production data for this well for the past 16 months:

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Long Creek, Spotted Horn, And Antelope Oil Fields Have Been Updated -- July 16, 2016

Link here for Long Creek.

Link here for Spotted Horn.

Link here for the Antelope oil field. 

The Weekend

From The Long Weekend: Life in the English Country House Between The Wars, Adrian Tinniswood, c. 2016, a review by Rosemary Hill:
In the first series of ‘Sh!t the Dowager Countess Says’, the YouTube compilation of Maggie Smith’s one-liners from Downton Abbey, she asks, drily: ‘What is a weekend?’
Cue eye-rolling around his lordship’s dining table and smirks from viewers.
But the countess was perhaps not being disingenuous for once, given that at this point in the loose chronology of Downton it is supposed to be about 1920 and she is going on eighty.
Nobody born in 1840, in any class, would have heard the word before they reached middle age.
In 1879 a correspondent to Notes and Queries wondered if it was a dialect term. In Staffordshire, he explained, ‘if a person leaves home … on the Saturday afternoon to spend the evening of Saturday and the following Sunday with friends … he is said to be spending his week-end at So-and-so. I am informed that this name for Saturday and the day which comes between a Saturday and Monday is confined to this district.’
By 1929 the weekend was an established national fact, but still decidedly modern, often with racy connotations. When Edward Prince of Wales asked his father, George V, if he could have the use of Fort Belvedere at Windsor the king was surprised: ‘What could you possibly want that queer old place for? Those damn week-ends I suppose.’ He caved in and perhaps regretted it, for the weekends with their associated guests and amusements made possible the affair with Wallis Simpson and so led eventually to the abdication.
And, of course, this weekend the British Open with Phil one stroke back from the lead after three rounds. 

Economics Improve As Costs Decrease And Enhanced Completions Improve Production -- Mike Filloon -- July 16, 2016

Link here.

  • Operator breakevens continue lower due to improved costs due to decreased drilling and completion times and better oil service contracts.
  • Production improvements due to better well designs have also made core U.S. unconventional plays more competitive.
  • Although estimates vary, plays like the core Midland and Delaware basins are profitable at today's oil price.
  • High-grading and enhanced completions are improving production between 35% and 60%.
Before the price of oil fell, most thought the average shale focused E&P would need $80/bbl WTI to turn a profit. Now that oil is hovering around $50/bbl, and the US Oil ETF is trading below $11/share, those estimates are much lower. 
Estimates are deceiving, as analysts were averaging all acreage. Since most operators are focusing on core leasehold, estimates should do the same. Some acreage still needs oil at $80/bbl, but these fringe areas are not economic. Many fringe players have declared bankruptcy, and this trend is likely to continue.
Some analysts have changed estimates to $60/bbl, but some operators are adding rigs and increasing production. It is possible some operators are thinking ahead. It can take months before a rig is put to work and an operator sees a location turned to sales.
Again, at least in the North Dakota Bakken, the number of active rigs is of lesser importance than quite a few other things.

Almost Too Easy
A Note For The Granddaughters

In today's WSJ, the first book review to catch my eye was Richard Conniff's review of David Hone's The Tyrannosaur Chronicles, copyright 2016. I looked at the "inside" of the book, noting that it was identified as a "Best Seller."

With Prime shipping, I will have it on Monday, and the shipping will be "free" (other than the annual Prime membership paid some months ago). For an extra $5.99 I could have the book delivered today, but I already have two books scheduled to arrive today.
And I get 5% cash back on a non-Amazon credit card. [A couple weeks ago, my $58 Amazon order cost me $3, the rest paid with cash back from purchases made on that credit card.] 

In the "old days," I would not place my Amazon order until I had "enough" to qualify for free shipping, which usually meant three or four items. Now, with Prime shipping, I order "immediately."

Amazon makes it almost too easy.

The other nice thing about Prime shipping: one can ship to any address. A lot of postage has been paid over the years sending gifts to others. Not so much any more. In addition, it eliminates all that re-packing and the delay associated with re-mailing. I've found most recipients are not upset that their gift does not come wrapped in pretty paper.

Pretty Paper, Roy Orbison

From wiki:
"Pretty Paper" is a song written by country music singer-songwriter Willie Nelson in 1963. After being signed to Monument Records, Nelson played the song for producer Fred Foster. Foster pitched the song to Roy Orbison, who turned it into a hit. Nelson recorded his own version of the song in November 1964.
Written by Willie Nelson, the song tells the story of a street vendor who, during the holiday season, sells pencils and paper on the streets.
In October 1963, while walking in his farm in Ridgetop, Tennessee, Nelson was inspired to write the song after he remembered a man he often saw while he lived in Fort Worth, Texas.The man had his legs amputated and moved with rollers, selling paper and pencils in front of Leonard's Department Store.
To attract the attention of the people, the man announced, "Pretty paper! Pretty paper!"
In 2013, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram identified the man as Frankie Brierton, of Santo, Texas. Brierton refused to use a wheelchair, choosing instead to crawl, as he learned to move while growing up after his legs were affected by a spinal disorder. Brierton sold pencils in Fort Worth, Dallas and Houston.

Alaskans Brace For Huge Budget Cuts -- July 16, 2016

For this story, google alaskans brace for budget cuts as oil prices tumble nyt. In its fifth legislative special session, the House of Representatives failed to override a line-item veto of the governor's budget.
That means the $1.3 billion in spending cuts imposed last month by Mr. Walker, a political independent, will almost certainly take effect on top of cuts that lawmakers in the Republican-controlled Legislature had already agreed on.
And those effects will ripple far and wide across the state, from public schools and the University of Alaska, which will see steep declines in state aid; to individual households, in the form of reduced state oil investment dividend checks; to the state court system, which began closing at noon on Fridays to save money. Tiny airports that connect the state’s vast rural areas may have to close.
North Dakota will be holding its first legislative special season this summer for the same reason. I believe North Dakota's constitution says these special legislative sessions must meet for three days. 

Back to Alaska:
The governor slashed tax credits that oil companies can get for exploration, which many Republicans objected to, saying it could hamper incentives to bring in new energy fields.
But he also made some Democrats wince, in cutting education spending and the dividend fund paid to residents, which budget analysts at the University of Alaska said would hit poorer residents hardest because a state check is a bigger part of their income.
Residents will still get a dividend from investment income earned by the state’s $54 billion Permanent Fund, but Mr. Walker ordered it capped at $1,000 per person, down from just over $2,000 last year.
In Alaska — where many things, from food to energy, are expensive — the dividend has become entwined into the economic system. Police departments and social services agencies, for example, routinely garnish the dividend checks of people who owe fines or delinquent child support payments; they have begun calculating the costs of what cannot be collected or distributed.