Friday, November 8, 2019

Enerplus Reports 3Q19 Earnings

Link here. Data points:
  • financial:
    • free cash flow: $160 million; adjusted, $175 million
    • net income: 28 cents/share; adjusted, 27 cents
    • from the CEO:
We grew our high-return production in North Dakota by 18% quarter-over-quarter, maintained our focus on costs, and returned over $70 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Year to date, we have now returned approximately $200 million to shareholders. Our 2019 plan remains on track to deliver 9 to 10% annual liquids production growth and 15% on a per share basis, while maintaining our low financial leverage."
  • production:
    • for quarter ending September 30, 2019
    • total crude oil production across all plays: 55,000 bopd 
    • crude oil production from the Bakken: 45,700 bopd
Presentations: link here.The 2Q19 transcript is available; the 3Q19 transcript is not yet available.

California Bullet Train -- They Don't Give Up -- But This One Might Actually Work -- November 8, 2019

Link here to a November 6, 2019 article. Data points:
  • bond issue approved by California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank
  • $3.2 billion bond for bullet train; tax-exempt, fixed-rate revenue bond
  • project developer: DesertXpress Enterprices LLC, an affiliate of Virgin Trains USA
  • project: bullet train from Victorville, CA, to Las Vegas, NV (and return, I assume)
  • project cost: $4.8 billion
  • speeds up to 180 mph
  • one-way trip: 90 minutes
    • about half the time for a car
  • bond to fund that part of the project located in the state of California
  • construction to begin in 2H20 and wrap up in 2023
  • to generate more than 15,800 temporary construction jobs 
  • note:
    • "Los Angeles" to Victorville about half the total distance to begin with 
    • "Los Angeles" to Victorville: 90 miles
    • Victorville to Las Vegas: 190 miles
    • by car:
      • the worse part of the trip is LA to Victorville -- LA freeway traffic
      • the easy part, by car, is the scenic route from Victorville to Las Vegas
Meanwhile, the "original" bullet train
  • continues to "chug along"
  • Governor Newsom shelved the $77 billion bullet train from LA to San Francisco
  • but authorized the $20 billion portion in the Central Valley between Bakersfield and Mercd
  • to not lose a $929 million (let's call it one billion dollars) Federal Railroad Administration grant, the deadline is December 31, 2022
  • more on this story at this link
  • by the way, where did the bulk of the federal money for the CA bullet train come from? From a "derailed" bullet train project in Wisconsin; see this article dated October 30, 2019
Note: price of a ticket
  • US rail: generally about 90 cents/mile, Amtrak, US
  • US air: generally about 13 cents/mile

Breakeven Points -- Definition -- November 8, 2019

Link here.

Article can saved as a PDF.

Tag: break-evens; breakeven; breakevens, breakeven points.

Breakeven Points In The Bakken -- A Closer Look At MRO Wells -- November 8, 2019

Updates

Later, 9:46 p.m., see first comment.

Filloon on MRO in the Bakken: back in August, 2018, Mike Filloon, over at SeekingAlpha, had a great update regarding MRO in the Bakken. It is still accessible, though you may have to register at the site.  Archived, in case the SeekingAlpha site "disappears."

At that SeekingAlpha article, Filloon posted this graphic, one of many:


Original Post 

See this post.

Average wells are now costing MRO less than $5 million/well. See 3Q19 MRO earnings conference call presentation.

$5 million / $50-oil = 100,000 bbls of oil (does not include associated NG and NGLs)

$5 million/ $40-oil = 125,000 bbls of oil (does not include associated NG and NGLs)

$5 million / $30-oil = 167,000 bbls of oil (does not include associated NG and NGLs)

A Closer Look At The MRO Kent Carlson Wells -- November 8, 2019

See this post from July 12, 2015.
See this post from November 8, 2019.

Record IPs are tracked here.

The graphic (pay attention to the two wells marked with ovals):


The two index wells:
  • 16761, 223, MRO, Kent Carlson 24-36H, Killdeer, t5/08; cum 343K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20193093029218127748277617449
BAKKEN8-2019319103903319994835918695735
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-201910021192
BAKKEN3-201927711854613837466187
BAKKEN2-2019281268122269114831002234
  • 17375539, MRO, Kent Carlson 14-35H, Killdeer, t9/09; cum 386K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201930101711013023728778634183600
BAKKEN8-2019214333428623442399503649
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20191027147000
BAKKEN4-201931993271412240198
BAKKEN3-20192921502078150023641421921
BAKKEN2-20192822772167137224601679469

Other wells in the graphic:
  • 19626, 1,060, MRO, Wardner 24-35H, Killdeer, t5/11; cum 228K 9/19; recent production -- 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201918495147576595309902687
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-201900550000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-2019311061994586829471110
  • 34755, 4,485, MRO, Higgins 31-26TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 99K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201930390423901641963358231443118741
BAKKEN8-20193049205498386326140138036840
BAKKEN7-20195104379388139361016209443
  • 34756, 3,011, MRO, Snider 41-26TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 75K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201928267132671947481263541009714441
BAKKEN8-20193036462373657231930389027942
BAKKEN7-2019812054108422734412645011804
  • 36267, 4,301, MRO, Blanche 14-36H, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 114K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201930337953400042123317401386715611
BAKKEN8-20192945554453845521940102537048
BAKKEN7-20191434711343844818419330017020
  • 34764, 3,888, MRO, Jocelyn 14-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 84K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201930259512603443634245141073912038
BAKKEN8-20193028097280745621727530325638
BAKKEN7-20192530156298727209216991014994
  • 34765, 2,467, MRO, Kinney 34-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 95K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201930323433245039968312101410814931
BAKKEN8-20193135485353537352833840431455
BAKKEN7-20191927046267917407821910020088
  • 35175, 5,020, MRO, State Eggert 34-36H, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 118K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2019303433334484434043334580930230
BAKKEN8-20193142494423505698039519036690
BAKKEN7-20192341028407567121136869034146
  • 35176, 3,452, MRO, State Eileen 34-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 89K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2019302378223886527592458560222380
BAKKEN8-20193129324292737808630350028388
BAKKEN7-201927356713543511390529733027375
  • 35177, 3,848, MRO, State Elias 34-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 110K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2019302681626994318743361282830956
BAKKEN8-20193139236391244769038403035785
BAKKEN7-20192941193411356969542554039814
BAKKEN6-20193288026654395213401943
  • 35178, 5,429, MRO, State Etta 44-36H, Killdeer, t6/19; cum 138K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2019302171721906251902747467725315
BAKKEN8-20193136335363674165936440034013
BAKKEN7-20192958475597266813152281048409
BAKKEN6-2019721968203293315120149018688
  • 35526, 2,795, MRO, Gwen 44-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 82K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20193019253195483693525680848815843
BAKKEN8-20193129300292675655631440172327719
BAKKEN7-20193033321328627133828606026356
BAKKEN6-2019316215811601260116
  • 35525, 6,220, MRO, Hayes 14-31H, Killdeer, t6/19; cum 142K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20193027380277053191127195991715389
BAKKEN8-20193136079361604254940720222336030
BAKKEN7-20193049811498536399541839038479
BAKKEN6-2019928339276053924023343021449
  • 35524, 4,253, MRO, Mason 14-31TFH, Killdeer, t6/19; cum 106K 9/19; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20193024587248033430925428915814570
BAKKEN8-20193127947278773822528348155224897
BAKKEN7-20192929056292934291025239023276
BAKKEN6-2019122472624086456931626101462

Twenty-Two Permits Renewed; Three New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 8, 2019

Active rigs:

$57.2411/8/201911/08/201811/08/201711/08/201611/08/2015
Active Rigs5566533864

Wells released from confidential list today:
  • 29924, PNC, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-3-31 H-2, Ross,
Friday, November 8, 2019: 28 for the month; 123 for the quarter:

  • 35691, 2,760, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, Elm Tree, t9/19; cum 29K over 13 days, extrapolates to 61,603 bbls/30-day month;
  • 35440, drl, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-8, Dollar Joe, no production data,
Thursday, November 7, 2019: 26 for the month; 121 for the quarter:
  • 36353, SI/NC, Abraxas, Jore Yellowstone 2H, North Fork, no production data,
  • 35441, drl, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-9, Dollar Joe, no production data,
  • 35294, 50 (no typo), BR, Prairie Rose 1A MBH-ULW, Corral Creek, t9/19; cum --;
Wednesday, November 6, 2019: 23 for the month; 118 for the quarter:
  • 35437, SI/NC, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-1, Dollar Joe, 
  • 35283, 1,234, Enerplus, Mulberry 149-93-21B-22H-TF, Mandaree, t4/19; cum 82K 9/19;
  • 34947, 1,589, Whiting, Moline 41-15-1H, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 102K 9/19;
  • 34926, 1,521, CLR, Collison 9-23H1, Avoca, t7/19; cum 99K 9/19;
Three new permits, #37168 - #37170, inclusive:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: St Demetrius (Billings County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for a 3-well Stuss permit in section 26-141-99, Billings County
Twenty-two permits renewed:
  • CLR (8): two Marlene permits and two Schroeder permits, all in Williams County; four Lancaster permits in McKenzie County
  • BR (6): three permits in Dunn County: a Scottvale permit; a Rifle Person permit; and, a Fritz Falls permit; three permits in McKenzie County, two State Dodge permits and one State Double Doge permit
  • Newfield (4): four Sorenson Federal permits in McKenzie County;
  • Hunt Oil (3): all in Mountrail County; two Palermo permits and one Nichols permit
  • Windridge Operating: a Sandpiper State permit in Burke County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35028, n/d, Whiting, Vance Federal 14-9-4H,
  • 35276, n/d, Whiting, Vance Federal 14-9-4H,

Notes From All Over, Clearning Out The In-Box, Part 1 -- November 8, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Cardinal Health:
High dividend yields, MLPs; three, Benzina, October 24, 2019;
  • Magellan Midstream Partners -- #3 on the list
  • Energy Transfer -- #2 on the list
  • Enterprise Products Partners -- #1 on the list
Where is that confounded recession? November 7, 2019, zerohedge;
  • article doesn't reference US gasoline demand
  • whatever
  • says earliest we might see recession: 2H20 -- right during the presidential election 
China:


Global Warming: This Will Be Epic -- November 8, 2019

A reader was the first to spot this for me -- a week ago.

Since then, just a few:
It will be interesting, over the next few years, to see how weather scientists walk back all this talk about global warming now that the grand solar minimum starts to make sense.  

With regard to the Arctic blast that will hit next week (and then the one after that), the "global warmists" tell us that global warming is responsible for that: global warming will make summers hotter and winters colder.  


*******************************
Vintage Steve

This is just fourteen minutes of the much longer presentation when Steve Jobs introduced the first iPhone back in 2007. 


**************************
Apple Watch

Apple Watch sales grew to 6.8 million units in 3Q19. Staggering? I don't know. But this is: if that estimate is accurate -- Apple won't release official figures -- the Apple Watch shipments are up a shopping 51% compared to 3Q18.

Random Update Of Two Very Old MRO Wells In Killdeer Oil Field -- November 8, 2019

Stand-alone posts needed for these two wells:
  • September 17, 2019: #16761, #17375; MRO;
#17375: link here.
#16761: link here.

This is not supposed to happen according to peak oil theory.

A Petro-Hunt well in Charlson oil field, #16452, has also been updated. Huge jump in production in 7/18.

***************************************
Dinner Break For The Artist


A Reader Brings Records Up To Date -- November 8, 2019

From a reader earlier this morning:
Did you cover the last EIA monthly production results?

EIA: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/ (click tab to view gas, also)

Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-output/u-s-oil-output-soars-to-record-12-4-million-bpd-in-august-eia-idUSKBN1XA2A6

Mark Perry notes new all-time records (but he misses some): https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/more-us-energy-milestones-12-new-production-records-were-set-in-august-for-natural-gas-and-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-215550
Additional comments from reader:
Record oil:
  • USA: will break 12.5 by year end; may break 13 (will be close)
  • TX: (second month above 5 MM bopd!)
  • GOM: broke 2 MM bopd!
  • ND: on pace to break 1.5 by year end
  • NM: on pace to break 1.0 by year end
  • OH: dancing with hitting 0.1 (i.e. 100,000 bopd) by year end
  • WV: second month at record level, dancing with hitting 0.05 (i.e. 50,000 bopd by year end)

Note: total "Appalachian" (PA/WV/NY/OH) is now at 157,000 bopd. This is above the record 150,000 bopd from the 1890s (per James Hamilton academic paper). So basically the tired old oil fields are now doing more than they ever did. Something for the peak oilers to consider...

Natural gas: many records as well, most notably ND breaking an iconic 3 BCF/d. PA is nearing 20 BCF/d (may hit by year end). TX is nearing 30! Paging the peak oilers ...
Peak oil? What peak oil?

MRO -- Marathon -- 3Q19 Corporate Presentation

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Note: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Later: kallanishenergy.

Original Post

MRO link. Data points:
  • overall:
    • free cash flow, nearly $300 million YTD, post-dividend
    • full year US oil production increased to 13% from 12% previously
    • 3Q19 production up 17% from year ago
    • CAPEX in line with expectations; $2.4 billion budget unchanged
  • plays:
    • Eagle Ford and Bakken
      • more than 500 locations added since beginning of 2018
      • upgraded hundreds of locations to top tier returns
    • Eagle Ford: added 18,000 net acres; bolt-on acres
    • new Texas Delaware oil play
      • 60,000+ net acres at low entry cost
      • potential for 400 extended lateral locations
    • Lousisiana Austin Chalk: exploration drilling
    • bottom line across all plays: greater than three years of drilling inventory added
  • Bakken:
    • this is incredible -- record low completed wells are now costing less than $5 million
    • $4.9 million average 3Q completed well cost -- down 20% from 2018
    • new single well drilling records -- spud to total depth of less than 7 days
    • established new pad record for completion efficiency -- 11 stages / day
    • average 3Q stages/day up 35% vs 2018
    • 4-well Herbert pad achieved average IP30 of 1,720 boed (86% oil) with average CWC of $4.5 million
  • extending the Bakken core 
    • with well costs below $5 million, able to extend top tier locations
    • and look at this: of the top 100 wells in the Bakken, MRO has 60 of those wells
  • MRO accounts for only 9% of wells in the Bakken
    • 2018 delineation tests paid out in ~ ten months
    • Ajax wells, 4Q18
      • four wells
      • > 1 million boe (80% oil)
    • total cumulative at 240 days
    • S. Hector wells, 2H18
      • four wells;
    • > 950,000 boe (79% oil)
    • total cumulative at 200 days
  • 2020 guidance
    • budget at $50-oil
    • break-even below $50 
Tier 1:

Nine Wells Yet To Report For The Week -- November 8, 2019

ENB: must have had a good earnings report; in pre-market trading, up about a percent. Headlines:
  • higher crude transportation fuels Enbidge's profit beat; Reuters;
  • Enbridge reports strong third quarter 2019 results; press release;
  • dividend remains unchanged (reported two days ago)
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$56.3811/8/201911/08/201811/08/201711/08/201611/08/2015
Active Rigs5466533864

These wells are yet to report this week --  

Friday, November 8, 2019: 28 for the month; 123 for the quarter:
  • 35691, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, Elm Tree, producing and a big well;
  • 35440, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-8, Dollar Joe, no production data,
Thursday, November 7, 2019: 26 for the month; 121 for the quarter:
  • 36353, conf, Abraxas, Jore Yellowstone 2H, North Fork, no production data,
  • 35441, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-9, Dollar Joe, no production data,
  • 35294, conf, BR, Prairie Rose 1A MBH-ULW, Corral Creek, producing, albeit not much;
Wednesday, November 6, 2019: 23 for the month; 118 for the quarter:
  • 35437, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-1, Dollar Joe, no production data,
  • 35283, conf, Enerplus, Mulberry 149-93-21B-22H-TF, Mandaree, producing, a nice well;
  • 34947, conf, Whiting, Moline 41-15-1H, Tyrone, producing, a nice well;
  • 34926, conf, CLR, Collison 9-23H1, Avoca, another nice Collison well in the Avoca oil field;
RBN Energy: could an Alaska North Slope LNG project undercut Gulf Coast competitors?
A number of proposed liquefaction plants and LNG export terminals along the U.S. Gulf Coast are racing to secure regulatory approvals and line up sales and purchase agreements, all in the hope of reaching final investment decisions before their rivals. Yet, these Texas and Louisiana projects now face competition from a facility that would be sited more than 3,000 miles away, in the icy waters just off the North Slope of Alaska. Qilak LNG would use a “near-shore” liquefaction plant in the Beaufort Sea off Point Thomson, AK, to supercool the region’s nearby, abundant and now largely stranded supplies of natural gas, load the resulting LNG onto ice-breaking carriers, and use these carriers to make shuttle runs to and from LNG customers in Asia. Today, we review the Qilak LNG project and the economic and logistic rationales driving it.
The state of Alaska and producers along its North Slope near Prudhoe Bay have a crude oil and natural gas problem on their hands. On the crude side, production from the Alaska North Slope (ANS) region peaked at 2 MMb/d in 1988 — 11 years after the 2.1-MMb/d Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) from the North Slope to Valdez, AK, was completed. Since then, ANS oil output has been declining steadily; in 2018, it averaged only 464 Mb/d, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and in the first eight months of 2019, ANS production fell to less than 450 Mb/d.  
As flows through TAPS ratchet down below 550 Mb/d, more and more mitigation is needed to keep the oil moving through the pipe due to freezing, wax buildup and other problems that come with lower flows. Worse yet, if and when volumes on TAPS fall much below 350 Mb/d, all bets would be off on whether the pipeline could continue to operate without a major re-do.
Then there’s the gas conundrum. North Slope oil fields also produce large volumes of associated gas, and while mixed NGLs can be removed from the gas stream and sent down with the crude on TAPS, there’s no way to market the remaining natural gas. The ANS gas is stranded. Literally stuck in the middle of nowhere because plans for a big gas pipeline from the North Slope to the Lower 48 never gained traction. Fortunately, there’s been a good local use for the gas: every day, about 8 Bcf is re-injected into the ANS oil fields to help maintain pressure and force more oil to the surface. Enhanced oil recovery, in other words. But for reasons too complicated to get into here, the re-injected gas does less and less good as the amount of oil still in the ground declines.
With declining oil production — and declining state revenues from that production — there’s been a big push on for several years now to finally make use of at least some of the many trillions of cubic feet of gas that have been re-injected into the ANS oil fields.
The state’s Alaska Gasline Development Corp. (AGDC) and three energy companies (ExxonMobil, BP and Conoco) had been working together to advance the $45-billion-plus Alaska LNG project, which would process 2.5 Bcf/d of North Slope natural gas; transport it 800 miles through a new, 42-inch-diameter pipeline to Nikiski, AK, on Cook Inlet on the Kenai Peninsula south of Anchorage; supercool the gas into LNG at a new three-train, 17.4-million-metric-ton-per-annum (MMtpa) liquefaction complex; and ship the LNG to Asian buyers. In 2016, though, the three energy companies decided not to provide financial support for the next phase of the project (namely, front-end engineering design, or FEED), leaving AGDC as the sole entity still working on it.
Which brings us to Qilak LNG, a North Slope liquefaction and LNG export project that is being developed by an affiliate of Lloyds Energy.
(Qilak, an Inupiat word for the environment — land, sea and sky — is pronounced KEE-lack.)
The proposed first phase of the project calls for the development of a 4-MMtpa liquefaction plant that would be constructed in a shipyard in Japan, South Korea or China, then floated to a site a few miles off the coast of Point Thomson in waters deep enough to receive large LNG carriers. The development of a second and third plant of identical design off Prudhoe Bay, AK (just west of Thomson Point) and the Mackenzie Delta (just across the Alaska-Canada line Northwest Territories) is possible, if project economics and LNG demand warrant.
Much more at the link.