Friday, April 17, 2020

This Is Going To Be Absolutely Fascinating -- April 17, 2020

I  haven't watched the news or listened to the radio (other than classical music when driving Sophia to and from the airport) but the little I've picked up on at two or three internet sites, is that the New York politicians are whiners, whereas the California politicians are "let's get 'er done" type of folks. I may or may not care for any of their politics on either coast, but it certainly seems there's a different attitude.

So, when I saw this, it re-affirmed / validated what I was already thinking. While New York City's politicians and New York state's politicians are still pointing blame, whining, and, in the process, dragging this out -- which, by the way, might be purposeful, coming out of the "War Room" -- the California folks are ready to move on.

Los Angeles and NYC are very, very differently culturally and the numbers may have been the same regardless who was running the show. But in hindsight, it certainly seems the NY (state and city) politicos made some significant missteps.

We can't forget that the west coast was hit by Wuhan flu from China, the source. Meanwhile, NYC was hit by Wuhan flu from Europe. And I think that's an important distinction.

On a separate note, I do not "know" the medical system in New York. But from my perspective, one of the best medical systems in the world is based in California. 

Anyway, I digress. I was thrilled to see this, link here:

As Alice Would Say: It's Getting Curiouser And Curiouser -- April 17, 2020


Crazy talk: there is talk over on social media that there is a very real possibility that retail service stations, as they start to go "broke," could shut down. I think one can think of any number of "outcomes." A word to the wise: keep your gasoline tanks full. I doubt it will actually happen, but stranger things have happened. When I first read that, I thought, "Okay, I could see." Then I thought: "Most pumps are now so automatic that, yes, I could see retail service stations shutting down, but the pumps still running." 

US petroleum supplies. Link here. I've watched this metric ever since I started the blog. Good, bad, or indifferent, it seems that 22 -26 days of supply is about "right." Enough of this, let's cut to the chase.

The graphic says it all.

Pretty much.

But in case you missed it: "we've" set a new record. The US now has a 35-day supply of petroleum.

But that's not all. Week-over-week, this latest numbers reveal the greatest percent increase ever. Actually, I don't know if it's the greatest percent increase ever but it was a huge increase. Week-over-week [(35.3 - 32.3)/32.2], the percent increase was 9.6%.

But there's even more. The greatest increase occurred when the supply -- measured in days -- was already setting records. "Month-over-month" [(35.3 - 28.7)/28.7] the increase was 23% and the "base" was at an already high 29 days.

Most recently:

Compare that during the last Saudi surge:

My hunch: we max out at 39.7 days.

By the way, the "industry" can forecast exactly the number of days of US petroleum supply. I assume those numbers are somewhat "secret." LOL. It involves a little calculus and only two variables. 

XTO's Bear Den Wells-- April 17, 2020

The XTO Bear Den wells, the wells are sited in North Fork but will be drilled to the southeast into Bear Den:
  • 25262, 2,682, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20B, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 297K 2/20;
  • 25261, 2,274, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20F, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 193K 2/20;
  • 25260, 2,432, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20A, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 335K 2/20;
  • 25259, 3,112, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20E, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 196K 2/20;
  • 37525, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20D, Bear Den, 
  • 37524, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20H, Bear Den, 
  • 37523, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20C, Bear Den, 
  • 37522, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20G, Bear Den, 
The graphic:

XTO Has Four New Bear Den Permits -- April 17, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3266595229

Four new permits, #37522 - #37525, inclusive --
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Bear Den (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • XTO has permits for a 4-well Bully Federal pad in SESE section 20-149-96, Bear Den
The XTO Bear Den wells, the wells are sited in North Fork but will be drilled to the southeast into Bear Den:
  • 25262, 2,682, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20B, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 297K 2/20;
  • 25261, 2,274, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20F, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 193K 2/20;
  • 25260, 2,432, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20A, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 335K 2/20;
  • 25259, 3,112, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20E, Bear Den, t3/14; cum 196K 2/20;
  • 37525, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20D, Bear Den, 
  • 37524, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20H, Bear Den, 
  • 37523, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20C, Bear Den, 
  • 37522, conf, XTO, Bully Federal 44X-20G, Bear Den, 
The graphic:

Cleaning Off The Desktop -- April 17, 2020

I'm off the internet until later this evening. I won't reply to e-mail or moderate comments until later this evening. Full day with Sophia .... starts now!

Weather: winter just won't quit. Another day of clouds, and cool weather. Though no rain is in the forecast, it certainly looks like rain. 

I haven't had time to get to these stories. Maybe later, but need to get the graphics off my cluttered desktop.

Bragging rights: at 89 cents/gallon, Wisconsin still has bragging rights.

Really? The other day I mentioned I needed new shoes. Today, of all things, a pop-up ad directed me to a shoe retailer. I don't recall seeing a shoe ad in a very long time, if ever, and all of a sudden, I get a pop-up ad for shoes after mentioning it in the blog. Now to have some fun: I'm going to click on that ad, and see how many more shoe ads pop up.

Dak Prescott: the last time I listened to talk radio was about three weeks ago. At that time, I thought the Cowboys had signed Dak Prescott. My brother-in-law called last night -- he said in passing that Dak has not signed. Say what? Wow. So I googled Dak Prescott news. Has this country gone nuts? The first story that popped up: Texas law enforcement raided Dak Prescott's estate based on a tip from a neighbor that more than ten people were at his house. My hunch: more to the story than we are being told.

Soccer ball: Sophia is five years old; will be six this summer. She needs a new size 3 soccer ball. She has one in her soccer bag but that's at her house; she needs a second ball here at her second house. LOL. Winner: Amazon. $11.10. Free delivery; loser: Walmart. The local judge is deciding winners and losers. Not me.

Cry me a river: years ago, this video fascinated me. I still watch it every so often. The fact that this video shows only 600,000 hits tells me the "original" was removed and a new one posted. I was sure I saw Jennifer Warnes among the back-up singers, but I couldn't find anyone who agreed with me, nor did the touring schedule support her presence. But, now things have been clarified, and I see another individual says Jennifer Warnes  was in the group.

Eggs: link here.
  • one dozen eggs: less than one cup of Starbucks coffee, and I haven't been to Starbucks in weeks;
  • eggs = heart disease, some say;
  • eggs much improved over those in 1951; penny per protein unchanged
  • gasoline prices down; egg prices up; it's a wash
  • eggs in short supply; a glut of bacon -- some of us will just have to re-balance our morning breakfasts 
  • eggs rationed in Texas -- oh, that was so yesterday -- actually it was 2015;
Silver: link here. Three days ago, I recommended silver and Lego for collectors. LOL. Prescient. At least on the silver.

Media meltdown, link here:

Prince Charles / Camilla: so irrelevant -- Wuhan flu status hardly reported. Apparently, despite their advanced ages, they both suffered a minor "cold." 

US crude oil supply: huge story. I haven't had time to get to it. Surprised no one else has reported it. Maybe later today if I have time.

Wuhan flu: reading social media,
I get the feeling folks don't understand viral diseases. We will all eventually get it -- unless it simply fades away after November 8, 2020 -- which of course means another two weeks of self-quarantine whenever that happens -- and for families -- it will likely come in waves -- suggesting that we will see record school absences next fall -- assuming the public schools even open this fall.
Speaking of which: whatever happened to the hydroxychloroquine story? If it's the silver bullet, one would think we would be hearing more about it. A quick google search suggests .... well, I'll let others sort this one out. Israel apparently puts study on hold; a French study says it doesn't work.
Wuhan flu: are we looking at an entire year when Disney theme parks are shut down? Disney is still paying its them park workers? Are we looking at an entire year of no MLB, no NFL, possibly no NBA? Obviously the political conventions are at risk, and considering the outcomes are already known, Trump v Biden, there's no reason at all to hold these political rallies.

Wuhan flu: five states.

Wuhan flu:

Border wall: moving along quickly.


FERC Throws Monkey Wrench Into Renewables Plans -- April 17, 2020


April 18, 2020: update here.  

Original Post 

Link here.

The headline says it all but probably best to find a more unbiased story (maybe later).

Note: these were re-hearings that were rejected -- which to me sounds like this is the second time this issue has been addressed and Sierra Club has lost both time, but I could be wrong on this. I don't follow it closely.

Closer Look At MRO's Four Bears USA Well That Came Off Confidential List Today -- April 17, 2020


April 22, 2020:
  • 35633, 5,946, MRO, Perkins USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t11/19; cum 280K 7/20; a 73K month; this completes the most recent data on this four-well pad; cum 346K 5/21;
April 20, 2020: production profiles at this post.

April 20, 2020:
  • 35632, 6,260, MRO, Waldorf USA 12-16H, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 227K 7/20; a 47K month; note the IP; cum 242K 11/20; off line 12/20; remains off line 4/21; back on line 5/21; cum 243K 5/21;
  • 35631, 5,190, MRO, Eager USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 153K 7/20; a 47K month, off line 1/10; remains off line 2/20; returns to production 7/20; huge well; cum 231K 5/21;

April 19, 2020: MRO is starting to report these wells; see this post.

Original Post

The well:
  • 35630, 4,505, MRO, Four Bears USA 13-16H, t10/19; cum 240K 7/20; fracked, 9/24/19 - 10/13/19; 8.5 million gallons of water; 89.13% water by mass; 45 stages; 8.5 million lbs; permit: sections 15/16-152-93; cum 299K 5/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphics:

Other wells in the graphics:
  • 20269, 574, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-17C-08-2H Four Bears, t6/11; cum 420K 3/20; intermittent; off line 4/20; intermittent; back on line 2/21; cum 429K 5/21;
  • 18126, 1,001, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-17C-08-1H, Four Bears, t4/10; cum 389K 7/20; off line 1/21; remains off line 2/21; back on line 3/21; cum 397K 5/21;
  • 20458, 555, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-17C-08-3H, Four Bears, t1/13; cum 278 4/20; intermittent; off line 5/20; back on line; cum 294K 5/21;
  • 22090, 1,085/AB-->A, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-17C-08-4H, Four Bears, t1/13; cum 229K 2/20; remains off line 8/20; remains off line 2/21; back on line 3/21; cum 294K 5/21;
Other MRO wells that are already producing in that area:
  • 26575, 2,152, MRO, Cheetah USA 14-16TFH, Four Bears, t4/14; cum 335K 7/20; cum 357K 5/21;
  • 23799, 1,132, MRO, Darrel Quale USA 14-16H, Four Bears, t12/12; cum 270K 8/19; off line 9/19; remains off line 8/20; back on line; cum 281K 5/21;
  • 26576, 1,812, MRO, Flicka USA 13-16TFH, Four Bears, t4/14; cum 340K 7/20; sections 15/16-152-93; cum 349K 2/21; was off line 1/21; coming back on line 2/21; cum 356K 5/21;

  • 36394, 3,822, MRO, Yellow Bull USA 14-16H, t9/19; cum 218K 7/20; huge well; cum 268K 5/21;
  • 36393, 5,281, MRO, Yesenko USA 11-21TFH, t9/19; cum 2278K 7/20; huge well; 54K month; cum 336K 5/21;
  • 19251, 406, MRO, Quale USA 31-20H, t2/11; cum 263K 7/20; off line 6/19; returned to production 2/20; 6,045 bbls over 20 days extrapolates to 9,068 bbls: halo effect: cum 297K 5/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

EOG Reports Four Huge Wells This Week -- April 12, 2020

Previously posted. Frack data not yet scanned in for #36411, #36410.

Results of two other wells were posted earlier.

The third and fourth wells that will be reported by EOG this week:
  • 36411, 2,783, EOG, Clarks Creek 46-0706H, 33-053-09056, Antelope, fracked 8/28/19- 9/18/19; 11.5 million gallons of water; 84.4% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.05019; t10/19; cum 230K 2/20;

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 36410, 1,639, EOG, Clarks Creek 45-0705H, 33-053-09055, Antelope, fracked 8/26/19 - 9/28/19 11.7 million gallons of water; 85.21% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.6062:

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

EOG, MRO Report Three Monster Wells -- April 17, 2020

Dueling banjos:
  • Saudi Arabian oil to US doubles over past couple of weeks -- CNBC; link here.
  • EIA weekly petroleum report for week ending April, 2020:
    • US crude oil imports average 5.7 million bbls per day last week, down by 194,000 bopd from the previous week
    • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 9.5 million bopd, 8.4% less than the same four-week period last year
WTI, link here:

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

see above4/17/202004/17/201904/17/201804/17/201704/17/2016
Active Rigs3366595229

Four wells coming off the confidential list today -- 

 Friday, April 17, 2020: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter, 273 for the year:
  • 36411, 2,783, EOG, Clarks Creek 46-0706H, Clarks Creek, t10/19; cum 230K 2/20; see this note
  • 36410, 1,639, EOG, Clarks Creek 45-0705H, Clarks Creek, t10/19; cum 123K 2/20; see this note
  • 35630, 4,505, MRO, Four Bears USA 13-16H, t10/19; cum 157K 2/20;
  • 35121, drl, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30A, Haystack Butte,
RBN Energy: second-wave US LNG prospects stagnate amid market uncertainty.
Despite the pandemic-driven economic slowdown wreaking havoc on the global LNG market, U.S. LNG export volumes from operating terminals have proven resilient, so far. Total feedgas deliveries to the liquefaction and export facilities peaked at 9.44 Bcf/d less than a month ago and are averaging about 8.3 Bcf/d in April to date. But for many of the already-struggling second wave of U.S. liquefaction projects still under development, the one-two punch of the crude oil price crash and COVID-related lockdowns has further stymied — or in some cases even reversed — their progress toward securing long-term capacity commitments and reaching final investment decisions anytime soon. Today, we provide an update on the status of the next round of prospective LNG export projects.
The global battle against COVID in recent weeks has caused big cuts in gas demand in key LNG-consuming regions, worsened an existing supply glut, sent international gas prices to record lows and tightened the price spreads for U.S. LNG offtakers delivering into those supply-saturated markets. Port closures due to COVID lockdowns in Europe and Asia have resulted in more cargoes floating offshore or entering the spot market in efforts to find alternative buyers. Despite all this, U.S. LNG exports have remained steady up to this point, save for what, at least on face value, appear to be brief maintenance or weather-related disruptions. That’s because of the long-term, take-or-pay sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) that anchor over 90% of operating U.S. liquefaction capacity. These commitments are critical not only for ensuring steady utilization rates once the facility comes online but for shoring up prospects for the two dozen or so LNG projects currently in development in North America. However, current market conditions have made securing these commercial agreements nearly impossible. Today, we turn our attention to these, the second wave of LNG projects vying to cross the finish line and the impacts of recent events on their progress.