Friday, July 16, 2021

Whiting With A New Permit In Sanish Oil Field -- July 16, 2021

Active rigs:

$71.81
7/16/202107/16/202007/16/201907/16/201807/16/2017
Active Rigs2311566958

One new permit, #38430:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
    • Comments: Whiting has a permit for a Lindley well to be sited in NENE 7-153-90;
    • it will be sited 328' FNL and 614' FEL

There was no other information reported today on the daily activity report.

Later, July 19 2021: wow, the NDIC is really falling behind. As of July 19, 2021, file #38430 / the scout ticket was still not posted. Its location has also not been placed on the map.

Notes From All Over -- The Karman Line Edition -- July 16, 2021a.

The Open: after posting +12 at the end of round 2, I am assuming Phil Mickelson is already on a plane headed back to the states. The leader is -11 and the cut will probably be at +1.

SPCE continues to plummet. The stock, not the plane.

Gazprom's folly: op-ed in AtlanticCouncil. Who wudda guessed? Nord Stream 2 or is NordStream 2?

Oh-oh: first Covid+ in Athletes Village, Tokyo Olympics; less than a week before opening ceremonies. 

What a debacle. Even my wife --who hasn't missed an Olympics (on television) in decades -- says she is no longer interested in watching this year. Neither am I. In addition to everything else, I hate the tape delays and the way NBC teases "events to come" with never-ending trailers, teasers, and then breaks to commercials that never seem to end. I will follow Katie Ledecky in print media and then watch the YouTube videos. 

BLM, game 4, ratings: link here. Twenty-one percent decline. And 2019 was not a great year either. BLM, more than ever, has become a niche sport. Sort of like NASCAR.

Despite the significant improvement, this year’s Game 4 ratings are 21 percent lower than the 2019 NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raports. Still, it’s a step in the right direction.

They're reading the blog: the other day I mentioned we would start reading about the Karman line. And here we go, link to The Wall Street Journal.

Scientists say determining the boundaries of space is fuzzy, but billionaires Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson have ignited the debate as they race to jump-start a space-tourism industry.

For much of the world, the boundary to space is considered the imaginary Karman Line, which starts around 62 miles above Earth and which Mr. Bezos and his Blue Origin LLC capsule is scheduled to cross on Tuesday.

The Federal Aviation Administration considers space starting 50 miles above Earth, and those that fly above that level as astronauts. Mr. Branson and the rest of his Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. crew received their astronaut wing badges on Sunday after passing that boundary but staying below the Karman Line.

Say what you want: the Virgin Atlantic flight might have been "beyond incredible," but if Bezos is successful, he will have bragging rights. Seriously, after watching the Virgin Atlantic flight, does anyone consider "walk-on baggage" astronauts?

The Fed: the "Morning Brief," Andy Serwer, Yahoo!Finance, link here.

I would argue those policies are now outmoded and potentially even detrimental. Yes, there has always been some downside to the Fed’s work, but now — and here’s the crux of it — because of dramatic and unprecedented moves by the central bank recently, the collateral damage may be coming close to outweighing the benefits of the moves themselves.


Specifically, the Fed’s boosting of the economy by keeping interest rates low disproportionately helps rich people and thereby actually disadvantages those in need. To put a fine point on it, hedge fund types, corporate executives, hotshot techies and the like are becoming way, way richer, while working people, people with only a high school degree, people of color are falling further and further behind. This isn’t socialist bleating. These are facts, and the Fed is a party to it. As such, the Fed needs a wake-up call, or maybe a reset is a better way to put it.


I generally abhor Fed bashing. There is an entire cottage industry of mostly conspiracy-minded wingnuts, who howl that the Fed is either moving too early or too late or too much or too little, or is in cahoots with the Trilateral Commission to take over the world. I pay this little heed and suggest you do the same.

What I’m talking about though has nothing to do with harebrained stuff, rather it concerns a sophisticated, highly-regarded institution that has become locked into policies, which though well-intentioned are now producing consequences that can be construed as harmful to our society and economy. Comments: this is a great essay. Probably something that should be studied in business schools. I understand the need for a federal banking system. What I don't understand is how "maximum employment" became one of its two mandates. Yes, I know it was directed by Congress, but why?

As we've seen, Congress is perfectly capable of screwing up "employment." We hardly need more help from the Fed. LOL. If the US Congress is so worried about "max employment," why does it continue to send money to folks making it more comfortable to stay at home and not work.

Having said that, this whole unemployment issue is a non-issue. As I've posted many, many times, no one in Congress really cares. 

Everything Armenian -- July 16, 2021

Weekend reading: The Armenian Gospels of Gladzor: The Life of Christ Illuminated, this will download as a PDF. A Getty publication. Years ago I saw this on exhibit at the Getty Museum. At the time, I did not realize what I was seeing. 

I happened to run across it again in The Secret Lives of Color, Kassia St Clair, c. 2016. "Minium," page 107. Minium is a pigment.

The dumbest thing in America is when women take the name of their husbands. Perhaps more on this later. But I digress. 

From the book:

The pigment used was minium. The person who worked with it was called a miniator, and his work, an eye-catching symbol or heading in a manuscript, was called a miniatura. This is the origin of the word "miniature," which in its original sense did not mean small at all.

Minium was used extensively in manuscript illumination during the Middle Ages, and use of it only gradually died out as vermilion became more readily available from the eleventh century. 

Minium, lead tetroxide, can be found in naturally occurring deposits, but it is more commonly manufactured. 

Minium was often used as a cheap alternative to vermilion and cinnabar; in fact, the three pigments were often confused, even though minium is generally much yellow than either. Pliny the Elder described it as "flame colored."

Perhaps the confusion was in part due to wishful thinking; although it is cheap, bright, and easy to make, minium is far from an ideal pigment.Even though, like its near relation lead white, it was used as a cosmetic in ancient Greece and China, it is just as poisonous. 

Another major problem: it does not mix well with others.

Reminds me of an episode of Colombo.

Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- The Feel-Good Page -- July 16, 2021

YouTube: what I'm listening to -- Lana Del Rey. Never gets old. It's interesting. It's hard to ask "Alexa" to play Linda Ronstadt, the best singer ever -- the problem: she had such an extensive and eclectic catalogue. I'm interested at different times in "different" "Lindas." If I ask Alexa to play "Linda Ronstadt" I never know what I'm going to get. On the other hand, Lana Del Rey is fairly predictable.  With some great and wonderful surprises.

UNP: can there possibly be any more bullish news than this? UNP halts shipments from west coast to Chicago to ease "significant congestion." Link to ZeroHedge.  I simply keep accumulating UNP.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

CVX: I just happened to see my quarterly dividend from CVX. I think I'm getting more in dividends than I ever invested in CVX. Yes, as noted, this is the "feel-good" page. 

Jump: Moderna to join S&P 500. Whoo-hoo! Shares jump. 

Lunch: my wife goes to fancy Asian restaurant most Fridays. Brings back something for me. She must be enjoying herself. It's 2:00 p.m. CT and she has not yet returned home. And I'm getting hungry.

KMI: to buy Kinetrex Energy -- to add a bit of "green energy" to its mix. What does Kinetrex Energy do? It calls itself a renewable natural gas developer, whatever that means. Machts nichts. I just keep accumulating KMI for the granddaughters. I think KMI is paying 6%. Recently increased its dividend ever so slightly. Pundits: confused with regard to midstreamers. Some love them; some hate them. Whatever. It's harder to build a new pipeline than just buy another pipeline company. 

Music: haven't heard this one in a long time. I don't think I've seen this video before.

Autos: McKinsey -- how the automotive industry is accelerating out of the turn

***************************
The Philadelphia Story

Proterra: after I posted the Philadelphia story, a reader wrote -- 

It's a long, ugly story - but the miraculous, clean-green, electric bus - very expensive electric bus - is a failure on many levels.  (The "work" the City did to prep for these buses destroyed millions of dollars of fairly new landscaping and was just a nightmare for businesses along the routes.)

We ordered ours from Proterra - that's at the end of this story.


Well, Philadelphia just had to remove their entire fleet of electric buses - same company.  Wonder if we can cancel the rest of our order/

*********************************
Released Almost Ten Years Ago

I did not know (or if I did, I forgot).

This is so incredible. I was watching this on the small screen (laptop computer) ... wanted to see it on the big screen .... the large flat screen... I turned on the television ... went to "YouTube" on the Amazon Fire TV Stick ... and this popped up immediately ..


I'm not sure if I can think of any one person that defines the "southern California experience" that I know better than Lana Del Rey. 

Southern California, 1973 -- 1977. Then northern California, 1977 - 1980.

Southern California: unmarried. Three beautiful women. 

Northern California: married. One beautiful woman.

Most Under-Reported Story Of The Day -- July 16, 2021

Updates

July 24, 2021: California experience

Original Post

Philadelphia's Proterra Fleet in complete shambles -- FreeBeacon. Link here

  • the problem: the chassis can't support the battery weight; and,
  • battery life was insufficient for the city's bus routes -- are you kidding me?
    • the former -- could have been understandably missed, but the latter -- underestimating the energy required for these routes?
  • $24 million worth of Proterra buses taken off the road
  • two dozen+ buses unveiled in Philadelphia in 2016 -- now out of operation
  • entire fleet removed
  • the cost of Proterra's electric buses has gained attention in recent weeks. On a recent trip by Biden to La Crosse, Wis., it was revealed that two buses the city ordered from Proterra for $1.5 million in 2018 have still not been delivered. Over the past five days, Proterra’s stock price has fallen over 25 percent.
  • not reported: how much water and how long it would take to put out a Philly bus fire? LOL. 

Chariots on fire: just a reminder. Link here. I had completely forgotten this link. Great readers. With great memories.

What I'm watching now:

  • The Tall Men, 1955
  • on TCM
  • noted for its cinematography, set in Montana but filmed in Sierra de ├ôrganos National Park, Sombrerete, Zacatecas, Mexico; snow sequences in Sun Valley, ID
  • Clark Gable and Jane Russell 

The WPX Raptor Wells -- Some Of These Wells Hit 500K Bbls Crude Oil In Less Than Three Years

The wells:

  • 34140, 2,126, WPX, Raptor 13-24HEL, Reunion Bay, t11/18; cum 486K 5/21; 
  • 34139, 2,528, WPX, Raptor 13-24HZ, Reunion Bay, t11/18; cum 478K 5/21; 
  • 34138, 1,241, WPX, Raptor 13-24HY, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, t11/18; cum 229K 5/21; stimulated 10/18; 50 stages; 8.5 million lbs proppant; 

This singleton might be considered the parent well. A great well, but it looks like daughter wells do just fine, but note #23265 is a short lateral; the daughter wells are typical long Bakken horizontals:

  • 23265, 494, WPX, Coyote Necklace 24HD, Reunion Bay, t10/12; cum 452K 5/21;; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213117131613903172601372
BAKKEN4-20213017081691784172001372
BAKKEN3-20213117941977901180601444
BAKKEN2-20212817941727995180701461
BAKKEN1-202131226321591084227901866
BAKKEN12-202031286728551500288702411
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20201000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202011101212010
BAKKEN4-202030281828211565283902372
BAKKEN3-202031324834321971327002759
BAKKEN2-202022218719941343220301850
BAKKEN1-202030314032181718316202666
BAKKEN12-201931364337262164366803108

New Seed-Cleaning Facility In Williston -- Williston Research Extension Center -- July 16,2021

Data points from The Williston Herald:

  • twenty-seven years in the making;
  • removes weed seeds/weeds from commercial seed
  • will produce higher purity seed
  • more crops with this plant;
  • will handle about 200 bushels an hour
    • the old facility: 35 bushels an hour
  • these stories make me wish that The Williston Herald was more of a photo-journal 

The WPX Mandan North Wells

July 16, 2021: from a reader after the data below was posted:

That WPX well #33382 was re-injecting a solid 100,000 cubic feet of gas per day ... undoubtedly for gas lift purposes.

From my readings, I suspect both Bakken and Eagle Ford operators are leading the way in forward-looking practices while the Permian players continue to struggle a bit. 
Reply: my hunch: in addition, I do think the operators in the Bakken know the geology like the "back of their hand" as they say.

**********************
The WPX Mandan North Wells

The wells:

  • 33382, 3,662, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HA, Reunion Bay, t4/18; cum 577K 5/21;
  • 33383, 3,115, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HB, Reunion Bay, t4/18; cum 536K 5/21;
  • 33385, 3,485, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HC, Reunion Bay, t4/18; cum 519K 5/21;
  • 33381, 3,433, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HW, Reunion Bay, t4/18; cum 568K 5/21;
  • 33384, 2,487, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HX, Reunion Bay, t4/18; cum 522K 5/21; 

Was there a parent Mandan well? Not really, but this one comes close. This one runs east to west, whereas the Mandan North wells run north to south, 

  • 18986, PA/273, WPX, Mandan 13-14H, Reunion Bay, t10/11; cum 133K 9/17;

Production gives the lie to the meme that daughter wells perform substantially worse than parent wells. Initial production data:

18986, the parent well, and now PA,

BAKKEN4-201228378046153352000
BAKKEN3-201231446335873816360003500
BAKKEN2-201229557864195456518405084
BAKKEN1-201231455343504754966309563
BAKKEN12-201131927191028711966309563
BAKKEN11-201130440035699799296902869

33382, still producing nicely but, of course, has plateaued to a much lower monthly production rate:

BAKKEN11-20183030946305771930627284238220
BAKKEN10-20182423384233911342318310121793509
BAKKEN9-20183029323291691512922960583113838
BAKKEN8-201811116961177148579158778275
BAKKEN7-20182832064320581173525107173654173
BAKKEN6-201830415144152125207449861527125120
BAKKEN5-20183156629569363029344340429833825
BAKKEN4-20183068127676362831953344045901

Whoo-Hoo! AAPL Is Closer To $150 Than $149 (Again) -- July 16, 2021

SRE: BP to deliver first carbon-offset LNG cargo to Sempra's Mexico terminal; link here;

  • this story interested me not except it highlighted SRE and its new terminal
  • will be delivered today (July 16, 2021) to the Energia Costa Azul aterminal, a joint venture between Sepra and IEnova in Mexico's Baja California;
  • will be offset by a BP forest creation project in Mexico -- LOL

AAPL:

Conspicuous consumption: the rich getting richer, and rich are spending, CNBC spot

  • unable to get reservations at high-end restaurants
  • but the worst news: there's a yacht shortage

Investing stories that interest me now:

  • energy, of course, but mostly oil, not natural gas
    • time to accumulate or time to sell?
    • me? I'm accumulating but being very, very picky;
  • midstreamers (pipelines)
  • semi-conductors / chips
  • individual stocks
    • AAPL
    • ARK
    • SRE 
  • Schwab (not as an investment, but as a trading platform)

Schwab earnings (link here):

  • trading slowed following meme-stock frenzy
  • EPS: 70 cents vs 71 cents consensus
  • "a 28% slowdown on the heels of the record first quarter, yet a still-impressive 4% increase over the fourth quarter of 2020, when we included TD Ameritrade for the first time,"  -- CEO
  • added 1.7 million new brokerage accounts -- I find this simply incredible -- Schwab's third straight quarter with new accounts exceeding one million
  • total client assets:
    • $7.4 trillion
    • 32.1 million accounts (includes international users)
      • many folks have multiple accounts

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

TSLA: trading below where it was when it entered the S&P 500. 

Jim Cramer: has the morning off today. Bummer. 

CNBC theme:

  • dueling market narratives
    • inflation is transitory
    • inflation is not transitory
  • we saw what happened when the Fed tried to stop inflation during the Jimmy Carter debacle
  • soon to see articles questioning need of Fed to raise rates to address inflation
  • and, of course, fiscal policy vs monetary policy (link here for one of a gazillion articles on this

****************************
Texas

Retail Sales Surge — Huge Story -- And Katie Ledecky — July 16, 2021

Katie Ledecky: what makes her the most dominant Olympic swimmer? Long, long article in today's LA Times. The story is behind a paywall but one can find the story with no paywall.  And here it is

The five-time Olympic gold medalist owns world data within the 400-, 800-, and 1,500-meter freestyles. The same old hole for a world file is as skinny as an Olympic medal. However Ledecky doesn’t simply beat data, she transforms them. The 800? She has the 24 quickest swims of all time. The 1,500? The highest 11 instances. The 400? Twelve of the highest 14 instances. 
At this post, what a reader has to say about Katie Ledecky. After posting the Ledecky links above, the same reader added this: great, long overdue attention being placed upon Katie Ledecky.
In the Forbes article, she mentions listening to Southside Johnny and the Asbury Jukes for motivation. 
I do not know if you are familiar with that group, but they were considered the "World's Greatest Bar Band" in the late 70s/early 80s for their high energy, distinct sound playing Jersey Shore venues during this period.

Failing spectacularly: Katie Ledecky over at Forbes. 

Masks are back: forget the vaccine. Even if vaccinated, masks now required (again) in Los Angeles, starting midnight tonight. 

Most irritating commercial now on television: "just the beginnin'." Amazon's Black Business Accelerator to support Black-owned retail businesses. Nothing to do with race. It's simply an awful commercial. First question: did Sir Richard take any African-Americans into space with him? Asking for a friend.

Retail sales surge. Link here

  • Growth and productivity vs inflation.
  • These numbers must have put a smile on Jay Powell’s face this morning.
  • from the linked article --

    U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly stronger last month, data from the Commerce Department indicated Friday, suggesting job gains and rising vaccination rates offset inflation concerns in the world's biggest economy.

    June retail sales rose 0.6% from last month to a collective $621.3 billion, the Commerce Department said, well ahead of the Street consensus forecast of a 0.4% decline. The May total, however, was revised to lower, to a decline of 1.7% on the month. Stripping out auto and gasoline sales, June retail sales were up 1.3%, the Commerce Department report noted.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$71.94
7/16/202107/16/202007/16/201907/16/201807/16/2017
Active Rigs2311566958

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: how the FERC sets oil and gas pipeline rates. 

The uninitiated might be forgiven for thinking that oil and gas pipeline operations are similar. After all, they’re just long steel tubes that move hydrocarbons from one point to another, right? Well, that’s about where the similarity ends. While the oil and gas pipeline sectors are interlinked, they developed in quite distinctly different ways and that’s led to a vast chasm in both the way the two are regulated and how their transportation rates are determined. Bridging that gap between oil and gas can be a perilous and chaotic endeavor because you’ve got to consider how each sector evolved over time and the separate sets of rules that have been established to form today’s competitive marketplace. In today’s blog, we continue our review of oil and gas pipelines and how their separate histories led to the current differences in pipeline rate structures.

The WPX Hidatsa Wells In Reunion Bay Have Been Updated -- July 16, 2021

These are huge wells.

These wells are tracked here.

Memo To Self: Charlson Wells In Unusual Siting -- Check Later -- July 16, 2021

The wells:

  • five BR wells on a single pad, #36825 - #36829, inclusive.
    • "Three Rivers" wells in Charlson oil field
  • all other wells sited in this section are 640-acre, short laterals. It's hard to believe these wells are sited to run south but that seems very likely; I doubt they will run to the east, but that's also possible;
  • on confidential so will have to wait

Off Line For One Year, BR Brings A Charlson Well Back On Line -- July 15, 2021

The well:

  • 33933, 192, BR, Three Rivers 1C TFH, Charlson, t7/18; cum 164K 3/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 6/20; back on line 4/21; cum 172K 5/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2021313217315319171122610671115
BAKKEN4-2021254349400120471665716112129
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200040000
BAKKEN7-202000200000
BAKKEN6-20201000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202041111552174839682
BAKKEN3-20203186594156367914545568
BAKKEN2-2020271797182671680258346384
BAKKEN1-20203123302367590917446403068
BAKKEN12-201931344534847341281647376493

 

An XTO Bobcat Federal Well Goes Over 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- July 16, 2021

 The well:

  • 34356, 1,305, XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35A, Bear Creek, t6/19; cum 470K 6/20; cum 631K 5/21;  

The Bobcat Federal wells are tracked here.

Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213111034109011367339545367082757
BAKKEN4-202127958395991251232268281134087
BAKKEN3-20213113194132741514539447319677398
BAKKEN2-20212710856108231189227026176719302
BAKKEN1-202131153391525616935311721955211563
BAKKEN12-20202089978954119811521988866304
BAKKEN11-202021112511139712288329411684616033
BAKKEN10-20202916185165421762132139244747574
BAKKEN9-20203018789185172042642468351227243
BAKKEN8-20203122212222292278953821509712763
BAKKEN7-20203123716236742256549581481521360
BAKKEN6-2020302231322329205904044539882506
BAKKEN5-20203133876336392638158630572411308
BAKKEN4-2020151548615579143932270622031635
BAKKEN3-20203123359235192174232621325620
BAKKEN2-20202927465276592706237699357491880
BAKKEN1-2020313091630700292184307942087902
BAKKEN12-2019313642736767331624911548798235
BAKKEN11-20193037908381383720051223461984924
BAKKEN10-2019313975440181425655341052750471
BAKKEN9-20193047937478424147462275620890
BAKKEN8-20193161872619987049191822904621166
BAKKEN7-201931695507007561117922822691165371
BAKKEN6-201913220112064115944333051924313997
BAKKEN5-20191001337000
BAKKEN4-201926657014992102301023