Saturday, November 25, 2023

Signing Off For The Night -- November 25, 2023

Locator: 46172B.

I'm calling it a night, but I'm going to watch this until ....


YouTube selected this for me. I had not seen it before.
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Black Friday -- Re-Posting -- Another Source -- Same Data -- November 25, 2023

Locator: 46171ECON.

As mentioned earlier, I had to quit watching CNBC early last week -- the talking heads were simply too negative about Black Friday and I knew they were going to be so wrong.

So, how did it turn out?

Charlie Munger says we're in a recession. Maybe we are; maybe we aren't. But it certainly doesn't feel like a recession to me. 

It's an unusual recession -- consumers smashing spending records.

From the linked article:

Americans set a new record for Thanksgiving online shopping, signaling robust economic activity despite inflation concerns, according to new data from Adobe Analytics. Adobe Analytics reported $5.6 billion in online sales during the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, marking a 5.5 percent increase from last year. The figure shatters previous records, and represents a near doubling of the $2.87 billion spent in 2017. Mobile sales took the lions share, accounting for $3.3 billion or 59 percent of total online sales.

Next week and a quarter from now we'll see the numbers updated. 

Ticker BRK-B -- 

My delay in pivoting from BRK-B to Microsoft cost me a lot of money.

A lot of investors don't understand P/Es.

I learned that from an analyst this past weekend. Never thought about it until now.

P/E:

  • BRK-B: 10
  • MSFT: 37

"They" say AAPL's P/E is too "rich":

  • AAPL: 31

Over 30 years, my investment in energy (oil) has been one of my worst investments. I wasn't paying attention. 

Having said that, it doesn't bother me a bit. For me, it was all about the dividends.

After all these years, the dividend payouts have pushed my cost basis in energy to zero.

And now I'm getting a nice cash flow.

And all these years, that almost guaranteed cash flow from dividends allowed me to invest in other non-energy companies, resulting in a pretty nice portfolio.  

***********************
Lego 

Black Friday deals likely to extend through Monday.

I don't know.

My new Lego interest: Speed Champions. I bought the NASCAR stock car --

I won't get it, but something to consider: Lego train set, Hogwarts Express -- Collector's Edition, down from $499.99 to $399.99.

Lego city road plates, "must have," down 20%, from $20 to $16.

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CLR's Kukla Wells In Chimney Butte Have Reached 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- November 25, 2023

Locator: 46170KUKLA.

See this post.

The CLR Kukla wells in Chimney Butte have hit or are trending toward 500K bbls.

The well:

  • 32094, 1,356, CLR, Kukla 7-16H, Chimney Butte, 4 sections, 56 stages; 25.9 million lbs, t5/17; cum 353K 7/19; just went inactive 9/20; intermittent since 5/20; cum 449K 2/21; cum 463K 5/21; cum 536K 9/23;

Production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20232025222548355555645189271
BAKKEN8-20233144604461517288038575152
BAKKEN7-2023314604459044378509841220
BAKKEN6-20233047784790493083518055226
BAKKEN5-2023315202518557868360823251
BAKKEN4-20233048564835659761625889197
BAKKEN3-20231826972702439335873355186
BAKKEN2-20232839193932612499289438420
BAKKEN1-20233140214035756863275982265
BAKKEN12-20223042164194700953734992288
BAKKEN11-20221321152116314124432247163
BAKKEN10-20222746084593811852614966219
BAKKEN9-20221619431960404925372364130
BAKKEN8-20223147154708833061115558473
BAKKEN7-20223135803574763341193770269
BAKKEN6-2022303251325677133578340893
BAKKEN5-2022313339333388253295315464
BAKKEN4-2022302855284684332336217581
BAKKEN3-2022141625161731442598251741
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20221384880
BAKKEN12-20216872867925224622236
BAKKEN11-20211334880
BAKKEN10-202113923870
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-202116232523262443618960240
BAKKEN5-202131423842534417103449861154
BAKKEN4-20213046154630485710299994637
BAKKEN3-20213156165647527411051107210
BAKKEN2-202128580457845199991196170
BAKKEN1-2021316753723561459869953814
BAKKEN12-202031725068006652910587770
BAKKEN11-20203061136027782467316140247
BAKKEN10-2020812431166180611139960
BAKKEN9-2020001970000
BAKKEN8-2020294212404547965093479315
BAKKEN7-202055877027711001822132
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20202544214480490513685012988
BAKKEN4-20202954905502557714980014561
BAKKEN3-2020317102708866411426972506555
BAKKEN2-202029669066906129104159859137
BAKKEN1-202031787978526890104769701344
BAKKEN12-20193172757213668179867217427
BAKKEN11-20191843124413380251934310634
BAKKEN10-20193183278271797510180966715
BAKKEN9-20193070186985844281067247455
BAKKEN8-20193151845120642553594192893
BAKKEN7-20191820112106150513181106127
BAKKEN6-20193043934404521834692998201
BAKKEN5-20193146094440491246014106264
BAKKEN4-201941962221252452279
BAKKEN3-20191515871648191520501845139
BAKKEN2-2019183101331447195319510031
BAKKEN1-2019291036910405109061668215111961
BAKKEN12-20183114236139951556324856226051678
BAKKEN11-2018105485552647151084510060555
BAKKEN10-20182310700107341056020827184621997
BAKKEN9-20181810684107131366317842161771350
BAKKEN8-20183120700207821598943438404902223
BAKKEN7-20183125715256491795738579327045144
BAKKEN6-20182620192202001818124446226161212
BAKKEN5-2018161529515067116951802717482545
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-201800480000
BAKKEN1-2018748975025529063925990402
BAKKEN12-20173123108230792405926532253911141
BAKKEN11-2017302477624748259702753327164369
BAKKEN10-20172822507224972556124335214222913
BAKKEN9-20172415438155131984216490147281762
BAKKEN8-20173124139241373204826185242351950
BAKKEN7-20173130572305434224132503226359868
BAKKEN6-20173030947309204466830491289881503
BAKKEN5-20172024505244544093524523210243499
BAKKEN4-201722816274115300140801408
BAKKEN3-20170000000
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Random Look At The Grayson Mill Hoffmann Wells -- Has Hit 500K After Just Four Years -- November 25, 2023

Locator: 46169HOFFMAN.

See this post. 

Simply some "bread and butter" Bakken wells. 

These were originally Ovintiv wells, then acquired by Grayson Mill.

Example of one of these wells, an update:

  • 36366, 1,906, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-17-20-6H, Siverston, t11/19; cum 57K over 28 days; cum 498K 9/23; according to scout ticket, still "F" -- no pump.

Production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302906287840278212817636
BAKKEN8-2023313168312942348776873145
BAKKEN7-20233120842081845457342960
BAKKEN6-2023302845289816528138785117
BAKKEN5-202331342934002650114011110819
BAKKEN4-202330370537581794117621147814
BAKKEN3-2023314331423234123271202424
BAKKEN2-202328328033312099779620140
BAKKEN1-20233145004454400312201119214
BAKKEN12-202231299230233818792877241
BAKKEN11-20223046364578504712399121320
BAKKEN10-20223140084103544712519122410
BAKKEN9-2022304323424864141323312803170
BAKKEN8-20223145684599014869145990
BAKKEN7-2022314474456869781571015585125
BAKKEN6-202230452245975926124831243647
BAKKEN5-20223156895528648314280108683412
BAKKEN4-20222848384874482513024113771647
BAKKEN3-20222945234180502012023120230
BAKKEN2-202220219425501640696169610
BAKKEN1-20222633943465813854985490
BAKKEN12-2021315548543383521601715021996
BAKKEN11-20212239544123695811457114570
BAKKEN10-20212955035365711918760187600
BAKKEN9-20213067016668783127147271470
BAKKEN8-20212963226410866926339263354
BAKKEN7-20213173507350601230952309511
BAKKEN6-20213072467173817231520315200
BAKKEN5-20213179887973444831765317650
BAKKEN4-20213080228055948722754227540
BAKKEN3-202131878087261219124733247330
BAKKEN2-202128861486141310024000239991
BAKKEN1-20213190939127855227550275500
BAKKEN12-2020311061410739777137986379860
BAKKEN11-20203010949109881410040711395871124
BAKKEN10-20202910755105281139228120281200
BAKKEN9-20203013038130671251239900399000
BAKKEN8-20203115278154834786408414083011
BAKKEN7-2020311640016189902437634376340
BAKKEN6-20202713972139391250526808268080
BAKKEN5-20202616797171691697347832478275
BAKKEN4-20203025797254462277064114641104
BAKKEN3-20203133432337292636868803648413962
BAKKEN2-202029352763498633795743376324911088
BAKKEN1-20203147082471624291589413825146899
BAKKEN12-20193125997257062300346650394857165
BAKKEN11-2019285723656627604981007240100724

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Updating The WPX Grizzly Wells In The Spotted Horn -- November 25, 2023

Locator: 46168GRIZZLY.

Link to this post here.

I'm not going to go through these wells tonight; there are just too many wells.

But to cut to the chase, these WPX Grizzly wells in Spotted Horn have individually reached or are trending toward 600,000 bbls crude oil cumulative.

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Update On An MRO Re-Fracked Well In The Bailey Oil Field -- November 25, 2023

Locator: 46167B.

From October 20, 2019: 

The well:

  • 16654, 311, MRO, Buehner 34-12H, Bailey, t8/07; cum 192K 6/19; had declined to 1,000 bbls/month; cum 478K 5/22; huge jump in production, 11/19; cum 516K 9/23;
  • Sundry form, August 1, 2019:
    • MRO is planning to sidetrack and refrack this well. Originally an open hole completion in 2007 ... an original TD of 19,917 feet MD ... MRO plans to .... extend the lateral ... plans a 40-stage plug and perf style completion, completing the well with three additional infill wells from the same pad are drilled and completed. These wells are scheduled to be drilled in August and completed in October, 2018.

Production period of interest:

BAKKEN5-20203013319132981234920483174682062
BAKKEN4-20203017302174021705826682201475326
BAKKEN3-20203125299252452563029121193078094
BAKKEN2-20202927971279182970228620026754
BAKKEN1-20202724594246902963124984410019202
BAKKEN12-20193143129432715423439080595824698
BAKKEN11-2019720602201072571516561014152
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-201900800000
BAKKEN6-201928153615487531285690418
BAKKEN5-2019932323142129884160
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-201900180000
BAKKEN12-2018123063697831117991
BAKKEN11-20183084382731979849653
BAKKEN10-201831924914223846324421
BAKKEN9-201830944940161800504198
BAKKEN8-20183188789626289674556

 Let's see what the other three wells on this pad are doing:

  • 36737, drl-->AL/A, MRO, Kloster 44-12H, first production, 11/19; t--; cum 406K 5/22; cum 465K 9/23;
  • 36736, drl-->AL/A, MRO, Emil 24-12TFH, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 252K 5/22; cum 284K 9/23;
  • 36735, drl-->AL/A, MRO, Bitter 34-12TFH, first production, 10/19; t--; cum 335K 5/22; cum 383K 9/23;

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