Tuesday, December 30, 2025

This Is So Exciting -- It's Hard To Believe -- 2025 Is Coming To A Close -- Last Day Of The Year -- Tomorrow -- December 30, 2025

Locator49769ARCHIVES.

This makes sense, why the market would be open all day New Year's Eve -- the last trading day of the year.  

December 31, 2025, is a significant date as it is a quarterly expiration date for certain equity, ETF, ETN, and PM-settled index options. This "quadruple witching" event can sometimes lead to increased trading volume and volatility as expiriing derivatives are settled for rolled over.
PM-settled options: trading closes at the end of the trading day; mitigates the risk of overnight events which would effect AM-settled options.   

A lot of folks didn't think they would make it to 2026 -- but less than 36 (?) hours now is all they have to go. Awesome.  

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Deer Hunting -- Texas

Extended family member.

One of several deer this hunting season. 

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The Kitchen Page:
How To Clean Cookie Sheets

Link here

Wow, Wow, Wow -- Live Right Now -- From The San Antonio Alamadome -- The Valero Alamo Bowl -- USC Vs TCU -- December 30, 2025

Locator49768SPORTS.

Updates

Final:

Original Post  

My alma mater: USC (University of Southern California, #16) vs TCU.

At the start of the second quarter, 3 - 7. 

At the end of the day, I think I'm rooting for .... the unranked team!! 

Unranked, how did TCU get a bowl game?

From AI:

TCU got into the 2025 Alamo Bowl with an 8-4 record because of a unique bowl situation where other Big 12 teams (like Iowa State, Kansas State) had coaching changes and opted out, creating an opening for TCU to fill the Big 12's spot against a strong Pac-12 opponent (USC), showcasing a rare, highly-ranked matchup despite TCU's unranked status entering the game. 

How TCU Earned the Spot:

  • Big 12 Bowl Tie-In: The Alamo Bowl typically matches the Big 12's second-best team (after CFP/NY6) against the Pac-12's second-best team.
  • "Logjam" of 8-4 Teams: TCU finished with a solid 8-4 record, making them a strong candidate for a good bowl game when other teams dropped out.
  • Bowl Season Chaos: Several other Big 12 teams, including Iowa State and Kansas State, experienced coaching upheavals and chose to skip their bowl games, creating an unexpected slot for TCU.

From The X-Files -- December 30, 2025

Locator49767B.

From the X-Files.

From Peter Zeihan, today: Global oil markets are nearing a massive shock as the shadow fleet edges towards collapse.

With mounting pressure from US seizures, Ukrainian drone attacks, and European interdictions, the roughly 1,000-tanker-strong shadow fleet is in the crosshairs of...everybody. As ships are confiscated, disabled, or destroyed, the numbers stop making sense for captains to run the risk.

This could trigger a severe tanker shortage, driving oil prices up, and making it harder for sanctioned countries to export. We're not just looking at an immediate price spike; this will be a prolonged oil shock impacting everything from transport to production.

Hamas: this is barely being reported. Hamas confirms death of five leaders incluing al-Sinwar's brother. Link here

Israeli F-15s: link here. Pay attention.

Israel operates several F-15 models (my interest -- the F-15D was my primary a/c for maybe a decade in the USAF): 

  • the older F-15 A/B/C/D "Baz" variants -- air superiority
  • the dedicated ground-attack F-15I "Ra'am" (Thunder) -- the "I" after the "15" stands for the Israeli variant;
  • is now acquiring the "Advanced Eagle," the F-151A -- "I" = Israeli and "A" = Advanced
    • for enhanced strike and rage, significantly boosting their strategic capabilities
    • complements their existing F-15s and F-35.

So, what happened to the F-35? From AI: 

The F-22 Raptor's production ended early (in 2011) due to spiraling costs, the perceived lack of a near-peer threat after the Cold War, its limited relevance in counter-insurgency wars (Iraq/Afghanistan), and a strategic shift towards the more versatile, cheaper F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, despite strong USAF interest in a larger fleet. The lack of export potential (due to a US ban) also hampered economies of scale, making it a prime target for budget cuts. 

  • Key reasons for early cancellation
  • Cost Overruns: Each F-22 was extremely expensive (around $150 million each in 2009 dollars), making it a significant budget concern. 
  • Post-Cold War Shift: With the Soviet Union gone, the primary threat of a massive air war against a peer adversary diminished, reducing the perceived need for such a specialized fighter. 
  • Focus on Counter-Insurgency: The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan required versatile, multi-role aircraft, not just air superiority fighters, making the F-22 seem less relevant. 
  • Rise of the F-35: The more affordable and versatile F-35 Lightning II offered multi-role capabilities (air-to-air, ground attack, reconnaissance) for multiple services, becoming a preferred alternative. 
  • No Export Market: A 1998 law banned F-22 sales to foreign countries, preventing additional orders that could have lowered unit costs. 

Cost of an F-15: link here. It certainly looks like the F-15 is going to be the "B-52 of fighter planes" for longevity and versatility. Truly amazing. 

Currently, three fighter jets remain in production for the United States military: the F-15EX Eagle II, the F-35A/B/C Lightning II, and the F/A/18 Super Hornet. 
The F-16 Block 70/72 Fighting Falcon is also in production, but it is exclusively exported, although the production line also helps to maintain and upgrade the Air Force's existing fleet. 
All three of these aircraft are expensive, costing between $70 million and upwards of $110 million in flyaway costs per aircraft. Putting a single number on the cost of any fighter jet is difficult and problematic. This is because the cost of these aircraft is extremely complicated, and it depends on what costs are included or excluded. 
That said, the per-unit flyaway cost of an F-15EX can be estimated. 
It may come as a surprise to many, but the fly-away cost of a Boeing F-15EX is now higher than a Lockheed Martin F-35A

As If Things Were Shut Down -- December 30, 2025

Locator49767B.

WTI: $57.93.

Active rigs: 28.

No new oil and gas permits.

Odds And Ends -- December 20, 2025

Locator49766PEAS.

The black-eyed peas southern style are in the oven! 

This is the big story in 2025: Trump opened the door -- took on "missions" that few previous presidents dared -- future US presidents will follow in his footsteps -- international leaders will also take pages from his playbook. Will expand later, but it's quite an interesting story. Good, bad, indifferent -- some would say that fortunately we had a strong judiciary and "rule of law" survived to keep the president inside the guard rails. 

Chips, 2026 -- all hands on deck! Anticipate another blistering year! Link here. Lead story in today's WSJ. A very, very nice summary of the big names. 

Micron: link here. Again, the comments at the thread are helpful.


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The Recipe Page
Black-Eyed Peas: Casserole
Southern Style
From memory: Find your recipe on line to be safe!

Never add cold water to peas once you start the process. Cold water will make the peas split.

If they split, I guess you can make split-pea soup. LOL. 

Lessons learned from first time I made this recipe:

  • don't skimp on bacon; if it calls for six slices, use six, maybe seven;
  • bacon: the fattier (more white) the better.

Ingredients:

  • one-pound black-eyed peas; two cups
  • chicken broth; plan on two cups; have more on hand if necessary
  • bacon, six slices -- cut into one-inch pieces
  • onion, one medium -- minced
  • salt to taste: I start with a generous teaspoon
  • pepper to taste: I start with a generous 1 1/2 tsp
  • mustard, dry: a generous 1/4 tsp
  • ginger, "prepared," 3 tsps; I used sushi ginger because that's what I found at Walmart
  • honey: optional, 3/4 cup; I used 1/2 cup 

1. Soak black-eyed peas overnight.

2. Rinse/drain the peas; place peas in large pan; boil, cover with chicken broth, bring to boil, and then turn down to simmer for 45 minutes; add chicken broth as necessary to keep peas covered.

3. Meanwhile, sauté onions and bacon; recommended -- bacon first, eventually crispy; drain off most fat; leave some fat while sautéing onions with the bacon. 

4. Pre-heat over to 325°F. 

4. Mix solid spices: salt, pepper, dry mustard. 

4. Drain peas that have now been simmering for 45 minutes and place in a 2-quart casserole bowl.

5. Add prepared ginger to solid spices. 

6. Add solid spices/ginger to the sautéed onions and crispy bacon; add the mixture to the beans in the casserole bowl.

7. Optional: drizzle honey over peas, onions, bacon, spices.

8. Show your significant other how great the casserole looks before it goes into the oven; note the wonderful aroma.

9. Bake in over (325°F) for 1 1/2 hours.  

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Locator49765B.

WTI: $58.15. 

New wells reporting:

  • Wednesday, December 31, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
    • None (there was no June 31, 2025)
  • Tuesday, December 30, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
    • 41551, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11B, 
    • 41414, conf, Slawson, Atlas 3-21-16H, 

RBN Energy: the top ten RBN blogs of 2025. Link here. Archived.

The Top 10 RBN Blogs of 2025 -- Based On "Hits" -- Summaries Generated By ChatGPT With Human Editing -- December 30, 2025

What it takes to get energy from Point A to Point B — from where it is produced to where it is consumed — was at the heart of many of RBN’s most popular blogs in 2025. Infrastructure bottlenecks, shifting logistics, evolving price signals, and the constant push-and-pull between supply and demand all shaped the markets, with each segment seemingly wanting to go its own way. But there was another layer too: the three T’s that hovered over everything this year: Trump, tariffs and turbulence. Together, they formed the backdrop for a market that kept everyone guessing about where things were headed. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the Top 10 blogs of 2025.

Fortunately, in the RBN blogosphere, we have a great way to size up what’s coming next — the blogosphere itself. A huge advantage of publishing a daily blog on a single topic — and distributing it to tens of thousands — is that by tracking how many hits each post gets, we can spot emerging energy-market themes as they develop. And we share those insights with the RBN community. For more than a decade, we’ve wrapped up each year by reviewing which topics rose to the top of the hit parade in our year-end “Top 10” blog, distilling the common themes we learn from what amounts to crowd-sourced market intelligence. Today’s blog is the latest edition of that tradition.

#1 – 8/4/2025 – Crude Oil: 

Take the Long Way Home - Enbridge's Oil Pipeline Expansions Likely to Spur More Projects Downstream

Rising Western Canadian crude production and Enbridge’s push to add nearly 400 Mb/d of new Mainline and Express-Platte capacity set up a critical downstream question in 2025: How will all those incremental heavy barrels get from the Canadian border to the Gulf Coast? Building on the themes in #9 (The Race Is On), this blog showed why Canadian flows, export routes and midstream competition are key considerations for the oil markets and why they were among the year’s defining storylines — and that accommodating new north-to-south volumes will require a new generation of pipeline expansions. With another takeaway crunch looming over the next couple of years, Western Canadian crude flows will remain a major driver of midstream development.