Wednesday, May 12, 2021

A Closer Look At The Three CLR Simmental Federal DUCs Reported Today -- May 12, 2021

Reported today: three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed --

  • 37048, drl/A, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, 33-053-09225, Elm Tree, first production, --; t--; cum --; fracked 1/5/21 - 1/16/21; 7.1 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass;
  • 37049, drl/A, CLR, Simmetnal Federal 8-16H, 33-053-09226, Elm Tree, first production, --; t--; cum --; fracked 12/28/20 - 1/4/21 -- a 7-day frack; 8.6 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass;
  • 37050, drl/A, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, 33-053-09227, Elm Tree, first production, --; t--; cum --; fracked 12/16/20 - 12/27/20; 8.3 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass;

On that mega-pad, seventeen wells, linearly placed, sited northwest to southeast, #37043 - #37059, inclusive.

To the immediate north, perhaps on the same mega-pad, four additional wells sited linearly:
#23493 - #23496, inclusive.

These CLR Angus Federal and Simmental Federal wells are tracked here

Later, a reader was kind enough to send a photo of the 17-well Simmental pad -- this picture looks west-to-northwest toward Williston. Isn't it just a superb picture of North Dakota? I just love it.

Think about it. Seventeen wells, $10 million each just to get started -- $170 million pad and on-going operational costs. Big, big, big business.

Just In -- Islamic National Bank In Gaza Just Got Destroyed By Israeli Warplanes -- Source -- May 12, 2021

Link to social media

Tesla Ceases Use Of Bitcoin To Purchase Automobiles -- Source -- May 12, 2021

Link to social media here. I know nothing more nor have any additional insight except what is at the link.

Rationale: environmental issues associated with crypto mining.

First observation / comment over at social medial: Elon Musk didn't know about Bitcoin energy use until after his SNL appearance?

Let's see: how much did Bitcoin plunge today? It looks like BTC-USD dropped another 7% today and DOGE-USD also dropped about 8% today.

Google Tesla no more bitcoin.

With regard to that first observation: one can ask the same question / make the same observation about how long Warren Buffett held on to his Wells Fargo stock even after the ethical issues were raised (and confirmed).

Link here.  

Andrew Ross Sorkin weighs in

Prior to the Tesla announcing end of Bitcoin as means of buying a Tesla:

Texas: Allocation And PSA Wells Deemed Illegal -- Source -- May 12, 2021

See this link regarding "allocation and PSA wells."

Over on social media with no additional information: "New ruling: allocation and PSA wells deemed illegal."

I have no idea the implications. Here's the link to Oil and Gas Lawyer Blog that might have more insight. 

It would behoove the NDIC, one would think, to issue a statement sooner than later. Again, I have no more insight nor no more information than what is linked above.

No New Permits; Active Rigs Hold At Eighteen; CLR Reports Three Completed DUCs -- May 12, 2021

From the Breitbart News Desk
The surge in prices in April was a bombshell. Excluding food and energy, so-called core inflation jumped 0.9 percent from March. That is biggest one-month increase since 1981 and is three times higher than Wall Street expected. 
The headline inflation figure, at 0.8 percent, was four times higher than expected. 
The stock market was left shell-shocked. 
Stocks have been tumbling this week on inflation worries but took a much deeper dive once the April inflation data were released. Stocks are now on a path for their worst week since October, when fears of a resurgent pandemic sent shares into a free fall. Those Masters of the Universe stocks that had done so well through the pandemic were among the hardest hit, with Google and Microsoft dropping by around 3 percent. 
One of the reasons the inflation data took such a bite out of the market is that it shook confidence in the ability of experts to forecast economic developments with any accuracy. Recall that just last week we learned that April payrolls came in at just 266,000, missing predictions for a million jobs. This much variance from estimates creates the impression that no one really knows what's going on with the economy, including those smart guys at the Fed who have repeatedly assured us that this bout of inflation will be transitory. 
The worsening gasoline crisis is also contributing to the idea that we're beset by incompetence at the highest levels of government. On the fifth day of this crisis, the Biden administration did nothing to reassure the public or alleviate the problem. Instead, gas prices jumped to their highest level in 7 years, and many gas stations were forced to shutter their pumps because they had run out of fuel. Elsewhere, hours-long lines formed as the public obviously is not convinced that this will all be over by the end of the week. 
Meanwhile, the government was very helpfully advising the public not to pour gasoline into plastic bags.
-- Alex Marlow & John Carney, Breitbart News Network

South Dakota attorney general, link here:
Sixth Judicial Circuit Judge John Brown told South Dakota Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg's defense lawyer on Wednesday at a status hearing that he saw no reason why a trial on three misdemeanor charges couldn't happen by the end of summer.
Atmospheric CO2: here it is, almost mid-May, and still no monthly update for atmospheric CO2. Link here
 
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Back to the Bakken

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37048, drl/A, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, 33-053-09225, Elm Tree, first production, --; t--; cum --; fracked 1/5/21 - 1/16/21; 7.1 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass;
  • 37049, drl/A, CLR, Simmetnal Federal 8-16H, 33-053-09226, Elm Tree, first production, --; t--; cum --; fracked 12/28/20 - 1/4/21 -- a 7-day frack; 8.6 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass;
  • 37050, drl/A, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, 33-053-09227, Elm Tree, first production, --; t--; cum --; fracked 12/16/20 - 12/27/20; 8.3 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass;

Active rigs:

$66.08
5/12/202105/12/202005/12/201905/12/201805/12/2017
Active Rigs1817666051

No new permits.

Gasoline Demand -- May 12, 2021

Link here

"Vaccine Hesitancy" -- Very Obvious That Things Have Slowed Down -- May 12, 2021

One has to go back ten weeks to see a number this low for a Wednesday. 

CDC data here.



Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose

Fully Vaccinated

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Wednesday

May 12, 2021

264,680,844

153,986,312

117,647,439

1,548,283

Wednesday

May 5, 2021

249,566,820

148,562,891

107,346,533

1,797,771

Wednesday

April 28, 2021

234,639,414

142,692,987

98,044,421

2,231,745

Wednesday 

April 21, 2021

215,951,909

134,445,595

87,592,646

2,563,671

Wednesday 

April 14, 2021

194,791,836

123,917,385

76,681,252

2,509,055

Wednesday 

April 7, 2021

171,476,655

109,995,734

64,422,618

2,884,580

Wednesday 

March 31, 2021

150,273,292

97,593,290

54,607,041

2,670,947

Wednesday 

March 24, 2021

130,473,853

85,472,166

46,365,515

1,982,059

Wednesday 

March 17, 2021

113,037,627

73,669,956

39,989,196

2,299,771

Wednesday 

March 10, 2021

95,721,290

62,451,150

32,904,161

2,028,692

Wednesday 

March 3, 2021

80,540,474

52,855,579

26,957,804

1,908,873

Wednesday 

February 24, 2021

66,464,947

45,237,143

20,607,261

1,432,864

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report, A Real Yawner -- May 12, 2021

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in storage pretty much unchanged; decreased by a paltry 0.4 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 484.7 million bbls, about 2% below the five-year average
  • refiners operating at 86.1% of their operable capacity last week
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls last week and are about 3% below their five-year average
  • US crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million bbls per day last week; pretty much average; over the past four weeks, imports averaged 5.7 million bbls
  • jet fuel supplied doubled (107.5%) compared with same four-week period last year

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Remote Learning

The great thing about remote learning, one can bring all your friends to "reading time."

Yes, Sophia is on Webex, reading along with her classmates, most of whom have returned to the "physical" classroom. I think there are about 34 students in her class and only three are still learning from home.


Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- May 12, 2021

The giant: Anglo-Saxon, somewhere between 700 -1100 AD. Link here. NSFW.

After 12 months of new, hi-tech sediment analysis, the National Trust has now revealed the probable truth and experts admit they are taken aback. The bizarre, enigmatic Cerne Giant is none of the above, but late Saxon, possibly 10th century.

Martin Papworth, a senior archaeologist at the trust, said he was somewhat “flabbergasted … He’s not prehistoric, he’s not Roman, he’s sort of Saxon, into the medieval period. I was expecting 17th century.”

"This is not what was expected,” he said. “Many archaeologists and historians thought he was prehistoric or post-medieval, but not medieval. Everyone was wrong, and that makes these results even more exciting.”

Anglo-Saxon god Heil or Heilith, is the giant Heilith?

Fission reactions at Chernobyl? Link to Charles Kennedy.  

Buybacks vs dividends: wow,wow, wow. I may have misheard but it sounds like Jim Cramer just said that buybacks are "worthless" vis a vis dividends-vs-buyback argument. He must be reading the blog. With huge pullback, how much are those buybacks helping the average retail investor? 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Canary?

Hess -- One Of Few Bakken Operators Actually Reporting IPs "On Time" -- Reports Another Great Manitou Well -- May 12, 2021

The well:

  • 36604, 2,567, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-7, 33-061-04515, Manitou, t11/20; cum 78K 3/21;

From the file report:

  • 2560-acre spacing unit
  • spud date: June 9, 2020
  • cease drilling June 17, 2020
  • target: Three Forks
  • TD: 21,819' MD
  • logging services began on June 11, 2020, 2:10 p.m. CT
  • vertical required three runs
  • KOP: reached at 10,015" MD, June 12, 2002, 2:22 a.m CT (12 hours to drill the vertical?)
  • the curve: began June 12, 2020 at 11: 27 a.m. CT
  • curve landed at 10727' MD; June 12, 2021, 8:02 p.m. CT (18 hours to land the curve?)
  • lateral: began June 14, 2020, at 8:47 am. CT
  • target: 16' target window; centered 26" below the top of the Three Forks (a fairly thick seam by middle Bakken standards?)
  • drilling ceased: June 17, 2020, 11:24 CT (almost exactly three full days)well bore in target zone 100% of the time? The well finished 6.32' low of the target line and estimated to be at the bottom of the geologic zone of interest
  • FracFocus: 9/9/20 - 9/25/20; 9.4 million gallons of water; 88.7% water by mass;

Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213113788137961999519747197470
BAKKEN2-202128116381159824260223562231640
BAKKEN1-2021167097713314456946694660
BAKKEN12-2020312192621978374612469524457238
BAKKEN11-20201924004238583794043565398743691

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Bakken Economy To Soar -- May 12, 2021

Today's theme on social media:

  • the world is on fire
  • Joe Biden is still president

CPI: "inflation" spikes -- the Dow absolutely plummets immediately after numbers released, but recovers; inflation figures three to four times worse than forecast. Three $300-suppplement unemployment checks will barely cover the price increases of fresh vegetables, fruits and used cars. Back to 1977:

  • the Bee Gees "Stayin' Alive"
  • President Jimmy Carter

Bakken economy: monthly midwest economy survey index soars to all-time high. Link here. Data points:

  • survey covers nine Midwest and Plains states: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MN, IA, AR, MO
  • 73.9 vs March's 68.9
  • any score above 50 suggests growth
  • greatest challenge: finding workers
  • from The Bismarck Tribune:
    • overall index soared to it highest reading since it began almost three decades ago;
    • North Dakota index: jumped to 74.2 from 69.3
      • new orders: 83.3
      • production or sales: 80.3
      • delivery lead time: 82.1
      • employment: 63.8
      • inventories: 62.3

Tech sell-off: once in a lifetime buying opportunity -- Gene Munster, CNBC, 6:50 a.m. CT, May 12, 2021
agree completely;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Rich get richer: Amazon wins appeal over $300 million EU tax bill; follows recent Apple, Inc., win; link here. Also at ZeroHedge.

Connectivity: Apple, Amazon, Google, rest of industry agree to accept "smart home alliance connectivity standard"; will be called "Matter." Link here

Fast? Really, really fast: M1 iPad Prod over 50% faster than previous generation. Link here. Social media not impressed. That's fine.

Neanderthals: Georgia -- in an unprecedented move -- waives sales tax on gasoline until May 15, 2021. Even a caveman can see what happens next. Link here. This tells me all I need to know about:

  • Georgia state leadership;
  • how concerned folks really are about the Colonial Pipeline shutdown

Colonial Pipeline shutdown. Not the means, but the end, how is this different than:

  • shutting down the DAPL?
  • killing the Keystone XL?
  • shutting down Line 5?
  • asking for a friend

Tesla China: not so good. Most "China Tesla sales" were in fact exports of Teslas from China to overseas buyers. Suggests tepid response for Teslas in China. Reminder: Tesla halts plans to expand factory capacity in China. Link here

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$66.25
5/12/202105/12/202005/12/201905/12/201805/12/2017
Active Rigs1817666051

Two wells coming off confidential list -- Wednesday, May 12, 2021: 23 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 125 for the year:

  • 36604, 2,567, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-7, Manitou, t11/20; cum 78K 3/21; EN-Anderson wells are tracked here;
  • 36121, drl/NC, Slawson, Zephyr Federal 3-6H, Big Bend, no production data,

RBN Energy: low European stocks, high global gas prices to keep US LNG production at full capacity.

U.S. LNG export terminals are running at their operationally available and contracted levels and will continue to do so, with no economically driven cargo cancellations anywhere on the horizon. Global gas prices are well supported by low storage levels in Europe, and it will take time to refill inventories, which means these high prices are not going away anytime soon.

The upshot: U.S. LNG will have a very different kind of summer than it did last year, when global prices were at historic lows and many U.S. terminals saw more cargo cancellations than exports. Feedgas in April this year averaged 10.77 Bcf/d, nearly 3 Bcf/d higher than last year, and as we progress into summer, the year-on-year delta will become even more pronounced. Barring any major operational issues, feedgas demand will stay around 11 Bcf/d, which is the level needed for the terminals to produce at full capacity. That’s in stark contrast to last summer, when feedgas demand cratered and averaged as low as 3.34 Bcf/d in July as cargo cancellations peaked. Today, we look at what’s supporting global gas prices, how that impacts export economics for U.S. LNG, and what that means for feedgas demand in the months ahead.

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